期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-12-09 美联储或"鹰派降息" ——美联储系列二十九 研究院 宏观组 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 宏观事件 核心观点 北京时间 2025 年 12 月 11 日凌晨 3 点，美联储将公布 12 月利率决议，并发布经济展望 报告（SEP）和利率点阵图。关注美联储是否调整 2026 年降息节奏和资产负债表政策。 ◼ 关注"鹰派降息"提供的市场空间 1）从经济增长角度，美国劳动力市场短期压力开始上升——11 月 ADP 就业单月减少 3.2 万，显示出经济动力不足的压力在上升。需要关注 12 月圣诞季消费对于预期的影响。 2）从通货膨胀角度，服务型通胀的下降已经开始趋稳，而商品型通胀的压力逐渐上升， 从核心通胀的角度，薪资增速继续强于生产力增速或削弱经济增长的动能。 3）美联储 12 月结束 QT，但 TOMO 操作量增加，市场对于美联储流动性供给增加的预 期抬升。结合财政扩张预计呈现短久期特征，美联储流动性管理或集中于短端。从时 间来看，12 月或 1 月或是相关政策预期释放的窗口，关注美联储主席 12 ...

中观事件总览 生产行业：1）商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激分别与德国汽车工业协会主席穆勒及欧洲汽车工业协会主 席、奔驰集团董事长康林松举行视频会谈。双方就中德和中欧汽车产业和供应链合作交换意见。凌激表示，中欧 汽车产业深度融合。欢迎欧洲车企继续投资中国，与中方合作伙伴共同推动全球汽车产业绿色和智能化发展。希 望德国及欧洲汽车工业协会继续发挥自身影响力，推动欧委会与中方相向而行，尽快妥善解决电动汽车反补贴案。 2）12月8日，国家发改委发布消息称，自24时起，国内汽油价格和柴油价格均下调55元/吨。折合升价，92号汽油 下调0.04元，95号汽油和0号柴油均下调0.05元。此次调价后，私家车和物流企业用油成本均有所下降。 服务行业：1）中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治 国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 上游原材料价格持续分化 宏观日报 | 2025-1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various types of options on December 8, 2025. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On December 8, 2025, the trading volumes of different options were as follows: 891,200 contracts for SSE 50 ETF options; 1,041,400 contracts for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market); 1,329,500 contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market); 112,000 contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options; 2,467,700 contracts for GEM ETF options; 39,100 contracts for SSE 50 index options; 125,400 contracts for CSI 300 index options; and 254,900 contracts for CSI 1000 options. The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes is also provided in Table 1 [1][19]. II. Option PCR - The PCR data shows the following values and changes on December 8, 2025: for SSE 50 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.52 (a -0.16 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.08 (+0.01 change); for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR was 0.50 (-0.25 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.16 (+0.03 change); for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR was 0.59 (-0.23 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.25 (-0.03 change); for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.75 (-0.38 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.28 (-0.02 change); for GEM ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.44 (-0.32 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.55 (+0.15 change); for SSE 50 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.37 (-0.05 change), and the open - interest PCR was 0.74 (-0.01 change); for CSI 300 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.34 (-0.14 change), and the open - interest PCR was 0.80 (+0.02 change); for CSI 1000 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.51 (-0.21 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.00 (+0.05 change) [2][35]. III. Option VIX - The VIX data on December 8, 2025, shows that for SSE 50 ETF options, the VIX was 14.24% (+0.55% change); for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the VIX was 15.66% (+0.54% change); for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), the VIX was 19.51% (+0.28% change); for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the VIX was 19.66% (+0.55% change); for GEM ETF options, the VIX was 26.77% (-0.32% change); for SSE 50 index options, the VIX was 14.95% (+0.49% change); for CSI 300 index options, the VIX was 16.52% (+0.85% change); for CSI 1000 index options, the VIX was 19.44% (+0.29% change) [3][49].

研究院 量化组 研究员 李光庭 高天越 0755-23887993 李逸资 联系人 黄煦然 0755-23887993 huangxuran@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03130959 王博闻 0755-23887993 wangbowen@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03149658 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|量化专题报告 2025-12-09 量化专题报告丨 2025/12/9 期权吃贴水白皮书（一） 摘要 中证 500 股指期货（IC）与中证 1000 股指期货（IM）长期存在显著贴水，期货吃贴 水策略虽能带来超额收益，但杠杆带来的强平风险让部分投资者望而却步。本文提出 实值看涨期权吃贴水策略，通过买入深度实值看涨期权，既规避期货策略的追保风 险、减少时间价值耗损影响，又能享受贴水收益。结合 2022 年 7 月至 2025 年 11 月的回测数据，对比期货吃贴水、平值看涨多头等策略，验证了实值看涨期权策略在 风险控制上的优势，而优选时间价值最小合约的改进版策略更实现了收益提升与回撤 降低，为投资者提供了更灵活的贴水收益获取工具。 核心观点 0755- ...

原油日报 | 2025-12-09 卢克石油西库尔纳油田复产，俄油到货恢复 市场要闻与重要数据 1、WTI 1月原油期货收跌1.20美元，跌幅将近2.00%，报58.88美元/桶。布伦特2月原油期货收跌1.26美元，跌幅1.98%， 报62.49美元/桶。 4、美国白宫表示，全国普通汽油的平均价格处于1681天以来的最低水平，而且趋势还在下降。GasBuddy的数据显 示，37个州的平均汽油价格已经跌至每加仑3美元以下，22个州跌至每加仑2.75美元以下，5个州跌至每加仑2.50美 元以下。事实上，美国人甚至可以在至少四个州的一些加油站找到每加仑2美元以下的汽油。(来源：Bloomberg) 投资逻辑 从俄罗斯原油到货的情况来看，近期土耳其到货重新回到了40万桶/日，说明买家可能实现了从未制裁实体采购俄 油，而近期印度国营公司BPCL也恢复了采购，但俄油贴水仍在持续回落，当前市场仍处于混沌期，即俄油买家仍 需要在合规风险与贴水收益中做出权衡，未来俄油浮仓数量仍是重要观察指标。 策略 油价短期驱动偏强，短期做多柴油裂解（事件驱动），中期空头配置 2、卢克石油西库尔纳2号储油罐的原油输送已恢复，流向图巴主要原油储 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-09 政策利好提振信心，股指放量上涨 市场分析 重要会议释放积极信号。宏观方面，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济 工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政 策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。海外方面，美联储定于12月9日和10日 举行议息会议，市场普遍认为，美联储很可能再次降息25个基点。市场将高度关注鲍威尔新闻发布会问答环节， 以及本年度最后一份"点阵图"。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数高开高走，沪指涨0.54%收于3924.08点，创业板指涨2.6%。行业方面，板块指 数涨多跌少，通信、电子、非银金融、计算机行业领涨，煤炭、石油石化、食品饮料行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两 市成交额突破2万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.45%报47739.32点。 IF基差修复。期货市场，基差方面，IH、IF的贴水修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，市场在联储货币政策会议结果揭晓前保持谨慎，美股三大指数小幅收跌。 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-09 需求季节性走弱，市场震荡运行 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，聚焦于俄乌和谈进展，此外委内瑞拉局势也传递出不确定性。市场情 绪观望，油价维持震荡拉锯节奏。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN275美元/吨(环比变动-10.75美元/吨）。PX装置平稳运行。在明年上半年的良好预期下， 周内PXN走扩至286美元/吨。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效 维持。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但远期预期下估值当前已处于季节性中高位水平。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -30元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+2元/吨），PTA现货加工费161元/吨（环比变动-35元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费266元/吨（环比变动-13元/吨），近端检修计划较多，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA小幅去库，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.8%（环比+0.3%），近期织造负荷有所下滑，11月底后内贸订单开始加速转弱，坯布库存 也开始加速累积，预 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 8, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 92,460 yuan/ton and closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.76% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 599,367 lots, and the open interest was 593,129 lots, compared to 560,676 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was -610 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 13,120 lots, a change of 2,198 lots from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 91,100 - 94,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 89,900 - 90,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,173 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - Downstream material factories made bargain purchases, but as the futures price gradually increased, their purchasing willingness returned to a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were still ongoing, with the focus of the game on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - With the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to remain strong; the energy storage market will continue the situation of strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern will remain. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, in the context of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be destocked in December, but the magnitude will slow down compared to November [2]. Group 3: Company News - On December 4, 2025, Guoxuan High - Tech (002074) stated on the investor platform that the G - Yuan quasi - solid - state battery had completed relevant testing work and started verification work. The Jinshi all - solid - state battery achieved the landing of the pilot production line and internal vehicle road tests in the first half of this year, and is currently promoting the design work of the 2GWh mass - production line. Guoxuan's first all - solid - state 0.2GWh experimental line was officially connected, and the yield rate of this production line reached 90% through the application of key technologies such as high - precision coating [3]. Group 4: Strategy - The intraday trading was volatile, inventory was continuously destocked, and consumption provided some support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to resume gradually in the future. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the power battery segment will decline, while the energy storage segment will remain high. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. The short - term strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

社库小幅去化，消费存在刚性 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21920元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21770元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-240元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21810元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-195元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-08日沪铝主力合约开于22215元/吨，收于22275元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，最 高价达22290元/吨，最低价达到22035元/吨。全天交易日成交251604手，全天交易日持仓233139手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-08，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存67736 吨，较上一交易日变化903吨，LME铝库存525800吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-08SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2755元/吨，河南价格录得 282 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-09 外盘延续上涨，市场短期存在支撑 市场分析 1、\t12月8日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4520；东北市场，4100-4200；华北市场，4250-4500；华东市场，4270-4470； 沿江市场，4550-4980；西北市场，4350-4470；华南市场，4350-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，丁烷586美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4643元/吨，涨32元/吨，丁烷4565元/吨，涨32元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，丁烷579美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4589元/吨，涨33元/吨，丁烷4511元/吨，涨32元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 原油端呈现震荡反弹态势，LPG市场表现相对坚挺，外盘延续上涨，沙特上调12月CP价格，叠加高贴水抬升到岸 成本，PG盘面震受到一定支撑。短期来看，中东与国内炼厂供应边际收紧，CP反弹提振下游采购情绪，港口贸易 量增加，带动库 ...