燃料油日报 | 2026-02-05 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油当前基本面偏强，亚太地区现货边际收紧，市场结构较为坚挺。且 由于高硫燃料油是伊朗的主要出口产品之一，因此对于伊朗局势的风险敞口较大。此外，在委内瑞拉原油供应减 少后，国内沥青炼厂开始寻找替代原料，伊朗原油和燃料油是潜在选项，高硫燃料油需求存在一定增量预期。低 硫燃料油当前基本面矛盾不明显，市场压力有限，因此主要跟随原油端波动。 策略 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2603/2605价差（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 伊朗局势仍不明朗，炼厂端需求增量可期 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.98%，报2797元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.39%，报3268 元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大。周初伊朗与美国计划开展谈判的消息一度导致油价大幅回撤。昨日局 势再度出现波折，伊朗无人机被美军击落，市场担忧情绪再度升温，原油地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly recover. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near term. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,080 yuan/gram and 1,180 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern as well, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical concerns persist as the US-Iran negotiation location change led to a deadlock, causing concerns in the Middle East that Trump may resort to military action. The US ADP employment data in January was far below expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added, compared to the expected 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the release schedules for January's non-farm payroll report, job vacancy data, and CPI [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On February 4, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1,141.70 yuan/gram, a 4.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,113.78 yuan/gram, a 2.45% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 23,511.00 yuan/kilogram, a 9.63% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 943,213 lots, and the open interest was 237,208 lots. The night session closed at 22,955 yuan/kilogram, a 2.36% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 4, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.274%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.727%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On February 4, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,858 lots, and the short positions changed by 704 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 607,573 lots, a -39.41% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 6,992 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,131 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,904,707 lots, a 17.58% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,083.38 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,438 tons, a decrease of 109 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -14.35 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 47.66 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 48.56, a -4.79% change from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 56.28, a -1.53% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On February 4, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 69,688 kilograms, a 29.30% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 523,996 kilograms, a -23.65% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

全国生猪价格呈震荡下探走势，单日跌幅有所扩大，前期价格处于高位的华东区域跌幅居前，部分地区生猪价格 已跌破12.0元关口，，价格下行压力凸显。规模养殖企业抢抓春节前出栏窗口期，出栏积极性维持高位，整体出栏 量环比延续攀升态势，标猪货源供应充裕，对猪价形成实质性压制。与此同时散户仍存惜售心理，对大体重猪源 价格形成阶段性支撑，致使市场肥猪与标猪价差维持高位运行。终端消费市场平淡，走货节奏未见明显改善，需 求端托底支撑不足。屠宰企业对后市看涨预期偏弱，即便处于传统节前备货高峰期，屠宰量仍呈现下滑态势，进 一步弱化猪价上涨动能。后续需持续关注养殖端出栏节奏。 农产品日报 | 2026-02-05 标猪相对充裕，南北价差收窄 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11735元/吨，较前交易日变动+575.00元/吨，幅度+5.15%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格12.35元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.40元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+615，较前交易日变动-535；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.56元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.42元/公斤，现货基差LH03+825，较前交易日变动 ...

Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船期价格1359/2293，2月下半月船期报价1359/2293；EMC2月上 半月船期报价1615/2430，2月下半月船期1615/2430；OOCL 2月上半月船期价格介于2331-2631美元/FEU，2月下 半月船期报价介于2287-2631美元/FEU。 地缘端：自2026年2月中旬起，马士基ME11线路将实施结构调整，通过红海和苏伊士运河过渡。在可能的情况下， 马士基还将在后续阶段对AE12和AE15服务进行调整，以通过红海和苏伊士运河。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2026年1月31日。2026年至今交付集装箱船舶6艘，合计交付运力46950TEU。 12000-16999TEU船舶合计交付2艘，合计2.8万TEU；17000+TEU以上船舶交付1艘，合计17148TEU。交付预期层 面，12000-16999TEU船舶：2026年剩余月份交付73.74万TEU（50艘），2027年交付94.46万TEU（64艘），2028年交 付121.2万TEU（82艘），2029年交付41.54万TEU（29艘）。 FICC日报 | 2026 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral investment ratings: Aluminum - Neutral, Alumina - Neutral, Aluminum alloy - Neutral; Arbitrage strategy: Long electrolytic aluminum and short aluminum alloy [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices have entered a wide - range oscillation period. The increase in absolute prices has suppressed the restocking demand of downstream enterprises and traders. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the spot market trading is quiet. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum will continue to accumulate rapidly, and the peak of inventory accumulation is expected to reach 1.5 million tons. In the long - term, macro factors are the main logic for the long - term price increase. [6] - The Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed anti - involution measures for alumina, but the implementation of the policy is unclear. The supply pressure of alumina remains high, the surplus pattern continues, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support is weak, and large - scale active production cuts by alumina plants have not occurred. [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On February 4, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was - 210 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,640 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 330 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 460 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Futures - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,810 yuan/ton on February 4, 2026, closed at 23,955 yuan/ton, with a change of 435 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,145 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,800 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 451,208 lots, and the position held was 224,756 lots. [2] Inventory - As of February 4, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 817,000 tons, with a change of 35,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 150,289 tons, with a change of - 423 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 495,175 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons. [2][4] Alumina Spot Price - On February 4, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,735 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - The main contract of alumina opened at 2,820 yuan/ton on February 4, 2026, closed at 2,824 yuan/ton, with a change of 14 yuan/ton (0.50%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,835 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,793 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 420,118 lots, and the position held was 375,698 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 4, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 22,678 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 522 yuan/ton. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures both showed upward trends on February 4, 2026, with nickel experiencing a significant rebound and stainless steel showing a milder upward movement. Due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, it is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies. However, considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 135,400 yuan/ton and closed at 137,680 yuan/ton, a change of 3.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 481,566 (-181,798) lots, and the open interest was 99,453 (-2,047) lots. The contract showed a strong rebound, maintaining a high - level operation with a significant upward shift in the price center. The previous panic - driven decline led to an oversold situation, creating a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the London nickel market, driving the Shanghai nickel rebound through the linkage of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore market showed a differentiated consolidation trend. Affected by the price correction of downstream products, the CIF quotes in the domestic market slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere was dull. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes and mainly executed previous orders. However, due to limited downstream acceptance, high - priced resources had difficulty in trading, and buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a slight increase in the actual bargaining space and a decline in CIF prices. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and the new benchmark price and premium for the first half of February were still in effect. The market was in an adaptation and wait - and - see period for the new price system, with no new policies or trading information to guide, and overall trading activities were calm [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 145,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was poor, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands mostly increased. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 48,072 (-108) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,314 (786) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [3]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [4]. - **Inter - period**: None [4]. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. - **Futures - spot**: None [4]. - **Options**: None [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,620 yuan/ton and closed at 13,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 224,029 (+4,598) lots, and the open interest was 59,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a fluctuating upward trend, achieving a recovery driven by Shanghai nickel and cost support. The trading volume moderately increased, and the open interest slightly increased. Overall, it was relatively strong, but the rhythm was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. The previous continuous decline created a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar led to a resonance of domestic and foreign market sentiments, driving the stainless steel rebound [4]. - **Spot**: Trading was light but improved compared to the previous period, and pre - festival restocking orders increased. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+100) yuan/ton, the price in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 310 to 510 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,030.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [5]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [5]. - **Inter - period**: None [5]. - **Inter - variety**: None [5]. - **Futures - spot**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].

开机率维持高位，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2723元/吨，较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%；菜粕2605合约2247元/吨，较前日 变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.09%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+447， 较前日变动+4；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M05+287，较前日变动-6；广东地区 豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌-20元/吨，现货基差M05+277，较前日变动-16。福建地区菜粕现货价格2440 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+193，较前日变动+2。 农产品日报 | 2026-02-05 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司作物进展报告显示，截至1月31日，巴西2025/26年度大豆收获进度11.4%， 高于一周前的6.6%和去年同期的8.0%，但低于五年同期均值11.8%。 市场分析 油厂的大豆及豆粕库存正在逐步消耗，近月到港量偏少，等待新季巴西大豆发运到港，且受到近期宏观层面影响 近期国内豆粕价格震荡偏强运行，但巴西新季丰产压 ...

油料日报 | 2026-02-05 豆一购销收尾震荡，花生备货尾声趋稳 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2603合约8030.00元/吨，较前日变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，花生现货均价 8009.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差PK03-1230.00，环比变化+0.00，幅度+0.00%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面，昨日全国花生市场通货米均价8009元/斤，下跌4元/吨，其中，河南麦茬白沙通货米好 货3.5-3.9元/斤不等、8筛精米4.15-4.3元/斤，豫、鲁、冀大花生通货米3.4-4.5元/斤，辽宁、吉林白沙通货米4.55-4.65 元/斤、8筛精米5-5.1元/斤，花育23通货米4.3-4.37元/斤左右，以质论价。全国油厂油料米合同采购均价7350元/吨， 山东均价7263元/吨，稳定，全国各油厂报价6800-7900元/吨不等，以质论价，严控指标。 昨日花生期货主力合约价格震荡小幅下行。总体来看，当前各产区新货供应有限，部分贸易商仍维持较高报价。 随着节前补货接近尾声，市场整体成交活跃度一般。部分加工企业已陆续停工、转为消耗库存，全国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [2][5][8] Report Core View - The global cotton supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose in 2025/26, with weak terminal demand and low - level oscillation of ICE US cotton in the short - term. In China, there is a large increase in cotton production, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the whole year. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2] - The global sugar market is in a state of definite surplus in the 2025/26 season. The short - and medium - term surplus pattern restricts the rebound of sugar prices, but long - term prices should not be overly pessimistic. China's sugar market has a new - season production increase expectation, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short - and medium - term [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and China's import pressure may be alleviated. However, the domestic paper industry has over - capacity, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan was about 859,000 tons, up 0.8% year - on - year. Domestic mills purchased about 773,000 tons, exported about 28,000 tons, and the unsold inventory in ginneries was about 59,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose in 2025/26. US cotton exports are weak, and ICE US cotton will oscillate at a low level in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward space is limited, but the upward drive is unclear [2] - Domestically, China's cotton production has increased significantly in 2025/26, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Traders are more willing to hold goods, and the basis is strengthening. Textile enterprises stocked up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply and demand are expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the expectation of a decrease in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026/27 has been partially traded. The domestic demand support is limited, facing the pressure of internal - external price difference, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (+0.83%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 33.4306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0971 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 4.029 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.788 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market is in surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, the tight balance of trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar price, but the trade flow will become looser after the second quarter. In the long - term, the price should not be overly pessimistic [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit outside the quota is at a high level, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter is high, but it will decrease in the off - season [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The decline space is limited, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out. 2026 may be the year to confirm the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in import - related policies [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,324 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was stable. The downstream pulp - purchasing enthusiasm was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills announced production cuts and conversions in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The demand in Europe is expected to improve, and China's import pressure may be alleviated [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity investment in finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry was in a state of over - capacity. The paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious, and the port inventory was at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is expanding, and there will be marginal incremental demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, the port inventory remains high, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short - term [8]

FICC日报 | 2026-02-05 沪指重返4100点，美国1月"小非农"不及预期 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。1月15日，央 行宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同 步调整。1月20日，财政部官网集中发布5个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服 务业经营主体贷款及民间投资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，国内政策推 升通胀的趋势明确。此外，全球的地缘局势仍紧张，在民粹主义和贸易保护主义思潮下，全球争夺矿产和能源资 源的局势明朗。特朗普称就格陵兰岛的谈判即将达成一致。从宏观趋势的角度，仅有经济衰退和加息预期才能为 火热的通胀情绪带来降温。基本面上，受新订单和产出的增长推动，美国制造业活动在1月份意外扩张，增速创下 自2022年以来最快水平。美国1月ADP就业人数增长 2.2万人，低于预期4.5万人。当地时 ...