丙烯日报 | 2025-12-02 成本端支撑增强，盘面偏强震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5965元/吨（+25），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6020元/吨（-5）， 丙烯华东基差35元/吨（-25），丙烯华北基差37元/吨（+9）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR174 美元/吨（-6），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR50美元/吨（-8），进口利润-304元/吨（+11），厂内库存48970吨（+3930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率42%（-4.20%），生产利润-280元/吨（+5）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润136 元/吨（+91）；正丁醇开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-248元/吨（+0）；辛醇开工率81%（+4%），生产利润240元/吨 （+50）；丙烯酸开工率77%（+4%），生产利润440元/吨（-4）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+1%），生产利润-480元/吨（-55）； 酚酮开工率81%（+2%），生产利润-602元/吨（-162）。 市场分析 供应端，镇海炼化裂解装置重启，中化泉州、上海石化装置检修， ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-02 阿祖尔炼厂装置重启或推迟 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.08%，报2476元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.7%，报3037 元/吨。 原油价格近日从低位小幅反弹，但中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，如果俄乌和平协议顺利达成，则地缘情 绪溢价或进一步消退，成本端对燃料油单边价格存在一定压制。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，下方支撑来自于 炼厂端的增量需求。低硫燃料油方面，具体来看，市场整体供应依然相对充裕，但阿祖尔炼厂的停产缓解了局部 压力。参考IIR消息，阿祖尔炼厂两套CDU装置检修时间延长，原计划在11月29日和12月9日重启，现在推迟到12 月6日和12月25日，科威特供应的收紧短期为低硫燃料油市场提供一定支撑。 策略 高硫方面：中性，短期观望为主 低硫方面：中性，短期观望为主 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报 ...

棕榈产区台风影响有限，油脂承压震荡 油脂日报 | 2025-12-02 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8418.00元/吨，环比变化-200元，幅度-2.32%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约7474.00 元/吨，环比变化-78.00元，幅度-1.03%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约8625.00元/吨，环比变化45.00元，幅度0.52%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9640.00元/吨，环比变化-230.00元，幅度-2.33%，现货基差P01+1222.00，环比变 化-30.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7730.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.77%，现货基差Y01+256.00， 环比变化18.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格8700.00元/吨，环比变化40.00元，幅度0.46%，现货基差OI01+75.00， 环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，印度买家已锁定2026年4月至7月期间大量豆油采购，此举实属罕见，旨在应对 竞争对手棕榈油价格上涨。印度头号植物油采购商Patanjali Foods Ltd.副总裁Aashish Acha ...

铝价重心持续走高，下游接货谨慎 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21730元/吨，较上一交易日变化280元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21600元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-180元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21640元/吨，较上一交易日变化280元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-135元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-01日沪铝主力合约开于21615元/吨，收于21865元/吨，较上一交易日变化355元/吨，最 高价达21915元/吨，最低价达到21575元/吨。全天交易日成交255931手，全天交易日持仓265623手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-01，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化-102吨，LME铝库存537900吨，较上一交易日变化-1150吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-01SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2835元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860元/吨，广西价格录得2885元/吨，贵 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-02 流动性相对宽松，国债期货涨跌分化 市场面：（7）收盘价：2025-12-01，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.41元、105.84元、108.04元、114.37元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为0.03%、0.10%、0.12%和 -0.08%。（8）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为-0.037 元、-0.149元、-0.143元和-0.139元。 综合来看：受股市行情带动，同时美联储降息预期延后、全球贸易不确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性。整 体看，债市在稳增长与宽松预期间震荡运行，短期关注月底政策信号。 策略 单边：回购利率回升，国债期货价格震荡，2603中性。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查 ...

原油日报 | 2025-12-02 投资逻辑 周末，乌克兰无人艇袭击了CPC的一个SPM码头造成严重损毁，可能导致CPC原油出口大幅下降，具体取决于该码 头设施能否快速修复，此外，两艘油轮在黑海遇袭，近期乌克兰的一系列袭击行为显示，乌克兰对俄罗斯的无人 机袭击已经从炼厂转移至关键的码头设施以及油轮，这对俄罗斯石油出口直接影响越来越大，此外，在昨日的美 乌和谈上，卢比奥并未取得明显进展，和谈再度陷入僵局，此前油市的担忧情绪有所缓和。 CPC码头遇袭，美乌和谈遇阻 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨77美分，收于每桶59.32美元，涨幅为1.32%； 2月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨79美分，收于每桶63.17美元，涨幅为1.27%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.04%， 报454元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 欧佩克+同意在2026年保持集团整体石油产量不变，并声明，与会国批准了秘书处制定的评估参与国最大可持 续生产能力的机制，同时，欧佩克+确认在明年第一季度暂停增产的计划。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 加拿大联邦政府27日与主要产油省艾伯塔省签 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: The strategy for apples is oscillating on the strong side [4] - Red dates: The strategy for red dates is neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The current spot market for late Fuji and stored Fuji apples has overall dull trading. The market is in a short - term off - season, and prices are expected to remain stable. With the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Day holiday stocking, prices are expected to be stable and slightly stronger due to the tight supply of high - quality goods and peak - season demand [3][4] - Red dates: The red date market is in a "new - old season transition" period. The acquisition in Xinjiang is over half - completed with weakening prices. The spot market in the sales areas has weakening prices, and there is a large inventory pressure. The market's future expectation is pessimistic [8] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,526 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton or 0.80% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The inventory trading of late Fuji apples is dull, with overall demand - based shipments. In the western production areas, there is sporadic sourcing by merchants, mainly for farmers' two - grade goods, and the transactions are limited. In Shandong, there is sporadic outbound shipment, mainly for small fruits through foreign trade channels. The prices in each production area are clearly in a certain range [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose slightly yesterday. The spot market trading is dull, and the shipment progress in the production areas slowed down last week. The merchants' ordering enthusiasm decreased. The citrus fruits have an obvious impact on the medium - and low - grade apple supplies. The market is expected to be in an off - season in the short term, with stable prices [3] Strategy - The price is expected to be oscillating on the strong side. The quality issue will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - and medium - term, with the upcoming holiday stocking, the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 9,055 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang is over half - completed, and the prices are trending weakly. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar is relatively fast. In the sales areas, the prices in both Hebei and Guangdong are trending weakly [6][7] Market Analysis - The red date futures price closed up in oscillation yesterday. The acquisition in Xinjiang is over half - completed with weakening prices and general enterprise enthusiasm. In the sales areas, the transaction prices are weakening. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but the extent is undetermined. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand contradiction is not substantially alleviated [8] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot goods, the futures price may move towards the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. The near - month contract may have a certain downward space [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $165.44 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price changed by 190 yuan/ton to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price changed by 170 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price changed by 180 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton and closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 128,295 lots, and the position was 105,756 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,620 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,380 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a change of -3,800 tons from the previous period. As of December 1, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 52,025 tons, a change of 275 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Strategy - **Single-sided**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Arbitrage**: Inter-period positive spread arbitrage [6]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-02 CP价格上调，现货端受到提振 市场分析 1、\t12月1日地区价格：山东市场，4400-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4220-4450； 沿江市场，4600-4950；西北市场，4350-4400；华南市场，4350-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、2025年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷593美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，丁烷583美元/吨，涨13美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4619元/吨，涨21元/吨，丁烷4541元/吨，涨99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷586美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷576美元/吨，涨12美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4565元/吨，涨14元/吨，丁烷4487元/吨，涨92元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 沙特阿美公司12月CP公布，丙、丁烷均较11月上调。丙烷为495美元/吨，较上月涨20美元/吨，丁烷为485美元/吨， 较上月涨25美元/吨。现货方面，受到CP消息提振，昨日多地现货价格上涨，下游多按需采购，卖方库存尚可。供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the supply contraction supports the price, and the soybean price is expected to run smoothly in the short - term under the relatively balanced supply - demand pattern. However, the purchasing enthusiasm in the sales area has weakened [1][2][3] - For peanuts, the overall supply in the producing areas is relatively tight, with regional price differentiation. The demand side purchases cautiously, and oil mills generally adopt a strategy of strict quality control and price - pressing acquisitions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean No.1 2601 contract was 4126.00 yuan/ton, up 18.00 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 26, down 18 or 32.14% from the previous day. The new - season soybean prices in the Northeast producing area showed a small regional increase of about 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is gradually running out, and farmers generally hold their grain and are reluctant to sell. The market price is in a stalemate, and the effective supply is tight due to the hoarding psychology of traders. The policy plays a supporting role, and large enterprises are actively purchasing, but the purchasing in the sales area is cautious [1][2][3] 3.2 Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 8152.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous day [4] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts was 8180.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 - 1152.00, up 46.00 or - 3.84% from the previous day. The national average price of common peanuts was 4.10 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The supply in the producing areas is tight with regional price differentiation, the demand side is cautious in purchasing, and the oil mills have a low operating rate and adopt a price - pressing acquisition strategy [4][5][6]