化工日报 | 2026-01-29 天然橡胶社会库存小幅回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16360元/吨，较前一日变动+155元/吨；NR主力合约13190元/吨，较前一日变动+105 元/吨；BR主力合约13265元/吨，较前一日变动+220元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16100元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15200元/吨，较前 一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1945美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1890美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价12900元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-29 库存窄幅波动，现货成交火爆 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-28，尿素主力收盘1799元/吨（+9）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-39 元/吨（-9）；河南基差：-39元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：-19元/吨（+1）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（+0），出口利润951 元/吨（-14）。 供应端：截至2026-01-28，企业产能利用率86.39%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨（-0.11），港口样本 库存量为13.40 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2026-01-28，复合肥产能利用率42.96%（+2.88%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.65%（+1.47%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日（+0.71）。 尿素盘面受情绪影响震荡偏强，现货跟随成交较好，春节收单压力较小，后续关注现货价格上方政策指导价。供 应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂 ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-01-29 山东烧碱库存累库速度放缓 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4913元/吨（+2）；华东基差-213元/吨（-2）;华南基差-193元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4720元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-23元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-800元/吨（-137）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-49元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-5.8美元/吨（-0.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.8万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存57.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率80.14%（-0.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.04%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率77.98%（-1.10%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量88.4万吨（-4.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1969元/吨（+18）；山东32%液碱基差-97元/吨（-31）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价599元/吨（-4）；山东50%液碱报价10 ...

油料日报 | 2026-01-29 豆一供需僵持，花生震荡盘整 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4375.00元/吨，较前日变化+11.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+65，较前日变化-11，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：昨日东北大豆现货价格整体持稳。市场整体表现较为稳定，不过从贸易环节反馈来看，当前出货 节奏有所放缓，终端需求的释放力度仍需提升。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车 报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.33元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场 国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.30元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡。近期国产大豆现货表现僵持，价格波动空间狭窄，期货虽有宽幅震荡但整 体中枢平稳。市场焦点转向后续需求释放情况，当前下游采购情绪 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-01-29 供应偏紧存支撑，关注下游需求跟进情况 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6281元/吨（+33），丙烯华东现货价6550元/吨（+75），丙烯华北现货价6400元/吨 （-5），丙烯华东基差269元/吨（+42），丙烯山东基差119元/吨（-38）。丙烯开工率71%（-4%），中国丙烯CFR-日 本石脑油CFR257美元/吨（+5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR88美元/吨（+5），进口利润-382元/吨（+44），厂内库存38980 吨（-7290）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率31%（-0.84%），生产利润-220元/吨（+85）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+1%），生产利润-288 元/吨（-4）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润1040元/吨（+173）；辛醇开工率96%（+2%），生产利润1120元/ 吨（+204）；丙烯酸开工率82%（-1%），生产利润150元/吨（-53）；丙烯腈开工率75%（-3%），生产利润-1025元/ 吨（+106）；酚酮开工率86%（-4%），生产利润-918元/吨（-90）。 市场分析 供应端，PDH装置停车消息 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-29 TL连续修复，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-29 冬储意愿低迷，盘面震荡整理 玻璃纯碱：刚需采购为主，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃：昨日玻璃主力合约全天呈现窄幅震荡走势。现货厂家报价基本维持前一日水平，下游市场以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：供应端玻璃产线冷修预期持续升温，近期行业库存去化较好，库存边际压力有所缓解，但整体库存 仍处于高位，后续需持续跟踪春节前备货节奏；需求端呈现分化态势，光伏玻璃板块受 "抢出口" 预期支撑，刚需 表现相对稳健，而浮法玻璃受消费淡季影响，终端需求持续低迷。 纯碱：昨日纯碱主力合约延续震荡运行格局。现货市场报价随期货盘面高位波动，部分厂家小幅上调报价，下游 企业多持观望态度，采购意愿偏弱。 供需与逻辑：纯碱市场仍处于强供给、弱需求的弱现实格局。供应端，行业高产量、高库存的状态仍将持续，短 期对价格反弹高度形成明显压制，后续需要关注新产能投产进度；需求端持续疲软，未有明显变化，需跟踪小长 假前下游补库节奏的落地情况。近期纯碱市场情绪受化工板块整体回暖带动有所修复，其持续性仍有待进一步观 察。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, although domestic soybean meal prices are currently running strong in the short - term due to the boost of US soybeans, the inventory of soybean meal and soybeans remains high. With the future release of the supply pressure from the new - season Brazilian soybeans, soybean meal prices are expected to run weakly [2] - In the corn market, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment has gradually started, and the demand for deep - processing and feed enterprises to replenish stocks has increased. However, affected by snowfall, the arrival volume is low, and the corn purchase price has been raised accordingly. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern port is still being consumed, and the price is high. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.14% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 388, down 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 288, down 16 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 298, down 6 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 203, down 6 from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: On January 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters stated that Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to be 3.23 million tons, lower than last week's estimate of 3.79 million tons; Brazil's soybean meal exports in January are expected to be 1.78 million tons, lower than last week's estimate of 1.82 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Futures**: The corn 2603 contract closed at 2274 yuan/ton yesterday, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract closed at 2530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 66, down 1 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 100, up 10 from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: As of January 24, Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting was 93.6% complete, compared with 90.7% last week, 93.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.8%. The harvest progress was 7.4%, compared with 4.4% last week, 6.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 9.3%. Brazil's 2025/26 second - season corn planting was 5.9% complete, compared with 0.8% last week, 6.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 9.3% [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal inventory is being continuously consumed but is still significantly higher than the historical average, and the soybean inventory also remains at a high level. Affected by the boost of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal prices are running strongly in the short - term, but the pressure of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest still exists. As the supply pressure is gradually released in the future, soybean meal prices are expected to run weakly [2] 3.2.2 Corn - With the approach of the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment has gradually started. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the demand for deep - processing acquisitions has increased. However, affected by snowfall, the arrival volume is low, and the corn purchase price has been raised accordingly. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly. The inventory in the northern port has increased slightly, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern port is still being consumed, and the price is high. Feed enterprises are still mainly fulfilling contracts, and the current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] 3.3 Strategies - The strategy for the soybean meal market is to be cautiously bearish [3] - The strategy for the corn market is to be neutral [6]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - The EG futures and spot prices rebounded and then fluctuated, but the fundamentals lack driving forces. The EG main contract closed at 3,970 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 3,843 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day, and the basis was -118 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton, down $6/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -723 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month-on-month. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 858,000 tons, up 63,000 tons month-on-month. According to Longzhong data, the inventory was 645,000 tons, up 28,000 tons month-on-month. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were slightly high, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will continue to accumulate. - On the supply side, the reduction in the syngas production load was not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol production load was high. There was still a large pressure to accumulate inventory under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February. Attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various downstream ethylene products after the price increase. Overseas, with the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be high from January to February, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. - On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented in mid-January, the weaving and polyester production loads declined rapidly, and the support from rigid demand weakened. [1][2] 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the support level of 3,900 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of EG are still weak, and the valuation has deviated from the low range after continuous increases. The imports from the United States are relatively small, and the impact of the cold wave may be limited. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of funds and the relative changes in the valuations of various downstream ethylene products after the price increase. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 - Inter - commodity: None [3] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Price and Basis - The report presents the EG futures and spot prices and the basis, including the closing price of the EG main contract, the spot price in the East China market, and the change in the basis [1]. 4.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - based EG, coal - based syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as the total load of ethylene glycol and the syngas production load [1][10]. 4.3 International Price Difference - The report provides the international price difference of ethylene glycol, specifically the difference between the US FOB price and the Chinese CFR price [19]. 4.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - It includes the sales and production of filaments and short fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [20][23]. 4.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data at various ports in East China, including the total inventory at the main ports in East China, and the inventories at ports such as Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, and the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories are presented [2][29].

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9532元/吨，较前一日变动+28元/吨，幅度+0.29%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1532，较前一日变动-28；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1132，较前一日变动-28。 近期市场资讯，产区目前客商发前期包装好货源为主，整体包装发运略有加快，主产区果农货成交量仍显有限， 目前行情整体维持稳中偏弱，部分果农急售情绪加重。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自 存货源为主；甘肃产区客商按需调果农货源，包装发货较为稳定，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒开始零星 包装，少量75#货源、三级货源出库为主，交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤 附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农半商品5-6元 /斤，果农一般通货出库价格3.7-5元/斤不等。产地整体包装发货氛围略有好转，但多以客商 ...