1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [1][3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans, the market sentiment has eased and stabilized. Low - protein soybean prices may see minor adjustments, while high - protein varieties lack upward momentum. Attention should be paid to demand recovery and policy changes [2] - For peanuts, the market is in a stalemate with oscillating prices. There is a lack of significant price drivers, and there are concerns about demand weakening [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the soybeans No. 1 2605 contract was 4327.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 15.00 yuan/ton (+0.35%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 113, down 15 (-32.14% change in the basis value calculation might be a typo in the original text) [1] - **Market Information**: Northeast soybean spot prices remained stable. There was a structural differentiation, with low - price goods rising slightly and high - price ones falling slightly. Downstream procurement demand was weak, and the overall market circulation speed did not improve significantly. Specific spot prices in different regions in Heilongjiang were provided [1] Soybean Market Situation - The main soybean futures contract price oscillated slightly upward. Southern producers attracted some demand due to high Northeast soybean prices, but terminal consumption was weak, and market transactions were light. The price difference between different - quality soybeans in the sales areas was obvious, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. The two - way auction of Sinograin was fully sold, but the reserve price was lowered without a premium. Farmers' remaining grain was limited, and traders' shipments were stable. Market bullish sentiment eased, downstream procurement was cautious, and inventory was controlled [2] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7978.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 32.00 yuan/ton (+0.40%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8045.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan/ton (+0.34%), and the spot basis was PK03 - 978.00, down 32.00 (+3.38%) [3] - **Market Information**: The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national market was basically stable. Different prices for various types of peanuts in regions like Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Liaoning, and Jilin were provided. The average contract procurement price of oilseed peanuts by national oil mills was 7350 yuan/ton, and the Shandong average was 7263 yuan/ton, remaining stable [3] Peanut Market Situation - The main peanut futures contract oscillated slightly upward. Farmers and traders generally had a reluctance to sell. The actual trading rhythm of commercial peanuts was slow, and downstream screening plants were prudent in procurement. Due to local snow and rain affecting logistics, the arrival volume of oilseed peanuts at oil mills decreased, while purchase quotes remained stable. Food processing enterprises mainly made purchases for rigid demand, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking motivation was limited, lacking significant price drivers [3][4]

果蔬品日报 | 2026-01-23 苹果去库仍旧不快，红枣旺季支撑走货 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9489元/吨，较前一日变动+71元/吨，幅度+0.75%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动-0.10元/斤，现货基差AP05-1489，较前一日变动-271；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1089，较前一日变动-71。 近期市场资讯，产区行情整体维持稳定，个别产区果农货价格略有松动，春节备货陆续进行，整体交易较前期略 有好转，果农货成交略有转好但仍成交量仍有限。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货 源为主；甘肃产区客商按需调果农货源，包装发货较为稳定，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒开始零星包装， 少量75#货源、三级货源出库为主，交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.5-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。 陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农半商品5-6元/斤，果 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Supported by favorable factors, the price of the three major oils and fats remained stable in the previous trading session [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,944 yuan/ton, a change of +112 yuan or +1.27%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,084 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan or +0.50%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,002 yuan/ton, a change of +55 yuan or +0.61% [2] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan/ton, a change of +90 yuan or +1.02%, with a spot basis of P05 - 44 yuan, a change of -22 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,440 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.60%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 356 yuan, a change of +10 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,840 yuan/ton, a change of +60 yuan or +0.61%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 838 yuan, a change of +5 yuan [2] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Argentina soybean oil: The C&F price of the February shipment was 1,209 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of the April shipment was 1,141 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton [3] - Imported rapeseed oil: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil for the February shipment was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price for the April shipment was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Canadian rapeseed: The C&F price of the March shipment was 528 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of the May shipment was 537 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Soybean: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans for the February shipment was 477 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans for the February shipment was 472 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment was 450 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [3] - Imported soybean premium: The premium for the February shipment from the Mexican Gulf was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; the premium for the February shipment from the US West Coast was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the premium for the February shipment from Brazilian ports was 160 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel [3] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.49% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 16.06% [4] - The Trump administration plans to finalize the US biofuel blending quota for 2026 in early March, expected to maintain at a high level and abandon punitive import measures, significantly boosting the demand for US soybean oil [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-23 库存数据继续下滑，碳酸锂价格高位震荡 市场分析 2026-01-22，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于165000元/吨，收于168780元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化2.55%。当日 成交量为464397手，持仓量为436686手，前一交易日持仓量427928手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-4780元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单28886手，较上个交易日变化230手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价161000-168000元/吨，较前一交易日变化6000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价158000-164000元/吨，较前一交易日变化6000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2210美元/吨，较前一日变化90美元/吨。 海关数据显示，12月锂辉石进口量级环比11月增加8.09%，达78.85万实物吨。从来源国看，加拿大来矿显著增长， 达3.35万吨；津巴布韦来矿13.22万吨，环比增加19.85%；马里来矿12月到港7.70万吨，环比增加5.24%；受到11月 来矿高位影响，12月来自澳大利亚的锂精矿进口量级有一定回落，达30.95万吨，环比减少2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the international market has short - term pressure due to new cotton listings and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic market has a large increase in production, weak downstream orders, and a balanced supply - demand situation with a possible end - of - year inventory shortage [2] - For sugar, the short - to - medium - term market is in a low - level consolidation, with a possible further bottom - seeking but limited downside. The long - term market is not overly pessimistic [4][6] - For pulp, although there are overseas supply disruptions, the domestic fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton (+1.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,553 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 18, 1097 cotton processing enterprises participated in the notarized inspection, with a total inspection weight of 6.992 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous week. Xinjiang accounted for 98.8% of the total [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks, but the short - term supply pressure is large, and the consumption is weak. The US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 domestic cotton production increased significantly, the downstream orders are weak, and the supply - demand is balanced with a possible end - of - year inventory shortage [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term upward space of the domestic market is limited, and the long - term trend depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5158 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5160 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [2] - In the second half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 2.171 million tons, an increase of 26.60% year - on - year. The sugar production was 0.56 million tons, a decrease of 14.93% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term domestic and international sugar markets are in a low - level consolidation. The long - term market is not overly pessimistic due to possible changes in the Brazilian sugar - making ratio and Thai planting area [4] Strategy - Neutral. The short - to - medium - term sugar price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom, with a possible further bottom - seeking but limited downside [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5380 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - The import wood pulp spot market price was basically stable, with only individual fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: There were many overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance news at the end of 2025. Demand: The European port pulp inventory decreased in November, but the domestic terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was at a historical high [8] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term due to insufficient improvement in domestic fundamentals [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price was weak before the festival, and funds were betting on the post - festival price increase in advance [1] - The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3] - The 02 contract fluctuates, and the 04 contract has a bearish drive. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic may disrupt the off - season attribute of the 04 contract, and the fluctuation of the 04 contract is expected to increase. The attempt of Maersk to resume sailing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will disrupt the expectations of more distant contracts [4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of January 22, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 60,133.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 24,650.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1707.60, 1137.70, 1399.10, 1498.40, 1086.40, and 1350.00 respectively [6] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route are provided, including quotes from Gemini Cooperation, MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance, etc. For example, Maersk's WEEK5 price for Shanghai - Rotterdam was 1520/2440, and WEEK6 was 1275/2030 [1][2] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on January 16 was 1676 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2194 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3165 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on January 19 was 1954.19 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1305.27 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are also provided. For example, 12000 - 16999TEU ships are expected to deliver 781,200 TEU (53 ships) in 2026 [3] - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in January was 342,200 TEU, in February was 273,700 TEU, and in March was 289,700 TEU. There were 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [4] 3.4 Supply Chain - Due to the complex and uncertain international situation, CMA CGM has decided to divert ships on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal [2] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost side has been fluctuating around the situations in Venezuela and Iran recently. The PXN was $330/ton in the day before last trading day (a month-on-month change of -$9.50/ton). The spot floating performance was weak, with March at -5, April around -3/-2, and May dropping to par. The expected increase in PX supply due to improved profitability, along with more imports from internal and external market arbitrage, and the implementation of demand-side maintenance plans, have led to a decline in PXN. However, the medium-term outlook for PX remains positive. The logic that profit restoration will lead to the cancellation or postponement of PX maintenance plans in the second quarter is difficult to confirm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of PX maintenance and import conditions [1]. - The spot basis of the TA main contract was -71 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 387 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -29 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price was 399 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +21 yuan/ton). The implementation of polyester factories' Spring Festival production cut plans has led to a reduction in the average monthly polyester load in February from around 83% to 81%, increasing the PTA inventory accumulation in February and weakening the near-term fundamentals. In the long run, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester operating rate was 88.3% (a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%). The weaving load will be concentrated on holidays around late January, which may accelerate the decline. Due to the firm price of polyester yarn, the current terminal has difficulty passing on costs to downstream, and is mainly digesting raw material inventories, with low purchasing enthusiasm and accumulating filament inventories. In January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester plants will be gradually implemented, and the polyester load will accelerate its decline. There will be more maintenance plans for staple fibers and small factories. The average monthly load in January will be around 88%, and the average monthly load in February will be reduced to around 81% [2]. - The spot production profit of PF was -20 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton). Supported by costs, direct-spun polyester staple fibers remained at a high level. Downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and some yarn mills have completed their raw material reserves before the Spring Festival. The number of yarn mills reducing or suspending production will increase near the end of the month, and staple fibers will face inventory accumulation pressure in the later period [2]. - The spot processing fee of PR was 582 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +11 yuan/ton). Recently, the Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester bottle chip factories have been gradually implemented, and the inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth. The market's spot supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations [2]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, with increased capital positions, PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish, but the structure and near-term fundamentals have not significantly improved. Currently, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with PTA being stronger than PX. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unplanned resumptions of PTA production due to the restoration of processing fees. For cross-variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG. There is no cross-period trading strategy [3]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][19] International Spread and Import-Export Profit - Figures involve the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [21][23] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [24][27][29] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, staple fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [43][45][53] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton-type staple fiber load, original-recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple fiber - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, polyester-cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester-cotton yarn factory inventory available days [68][69][72] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A-grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next next month - base month) [85][89][94]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-23 需求预期增量，猪价进入调整 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11600元/吨，较前交易日变动+130.00元/吨，幅度+1.13%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格13.06元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1460，较前交易日变动-130；江 苏地区外三元生猪价格 13.27元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1670，较前交易日变动-260； 四川地区外三元生猪价格12.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1170，较前交易日变动-240。 据农业农村部监测，1月22日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.10，比昨天下降0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为132.98，比昨天下降0.04个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.50元/公斤，与昨天持平；牛肉65.79元/ 公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉63.60元/公斤，比昨天上升0.6%；鸡蛋8.27元/公斤，比昨天上升0.9%；白条鸡17.27 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%。 市场 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, after the absolute price correction, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. However, the upward price trend has difficulty in being transmitted downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output continuing to decline month - on - month, and may enter the Spring Festival holiday early. Although the long - term macro factors still drive the price up, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. - For alumina, the gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is still falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, the oversupply situation persists, and the social inventory is increasing with a possible risk of over - stocking [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,740 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,100 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,055 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,160 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 355,802 lots, and the open interest was 337,960 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 743,000 tons, a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 138,856 tons, a change of 101 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 509,275 tons, a change of 2,100 tons from the previous day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 22, 2026, the Shanxi alumina price was 2,615 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,560 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,645 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,750 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,717 yuan/ton, a change of 48 yuan/ton (1.80% change) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,728 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,666 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 564,157 lots, and the open interest was 489,138 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 22, 2026, the Baotai civil raw aluminum procurement price was 17,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price was 18,100 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 23,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the absolute price decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. But the price increase is difficult to be passed on downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output declining. The early - stage inventory accumulation has put pressure on the price. Although the long - term macro factors support the price increase, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. Alumina - The gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak due to factors such as low import ore trading volume, falling prices, and increased bauxite arrivals in China. The supply pressure remains, and there is a risk of over - stocking [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The bond market is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with all Treasury bond futures closing lower. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and rising global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a 0.47% increase from the previous month; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, a 6.25% increase from the previous month; the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, a 1.83% increase from the previous month [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.28, a - 0.51% change from the previous day; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9647, a 0.10% increase from the previous day. Other indicators such as SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, etc. also showed corresponding changes [9]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On January 22, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 112.17 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.05%, and - 0.07% respectively [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.018 yuan, 0.019 yuan, - 0.013 yuan, and 0.069 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 22, 2026, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.497%, 1.590%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various spread indicators such as the inter - period spread of Treasury bond futures and the inter - variety spread between spot bonds and futures, including 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [26][29][35] V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TS main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [38][40]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract are shown [46]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TF main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [47]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract are shown [54]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the T main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [55]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract are shown [56]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TL main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [61]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract are shown [67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline in repo rates, Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in the basis of the 2603 contract [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].