1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Downward Bias [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No Rating Provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is stable, and the market is oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, and the steel mills' profitability is declining. The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke has eased, but the market sentiment is weak. The supply of thermal coal is tightening at the end of the month, and the price is oscillating [1][2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3293 yuan/ton. Rebar's production, sales, and inventory all declined, and destocking was in line with the season. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, while inventory and demand decreased, and high inventory still suppressed the market [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of destocking, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has been well alleviated. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has narrowed significantly. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Building material demand may weaken later, which may drag down plates [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 119.1 million tons, a 15.30% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 143.0 million tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous day. The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.60 million tons from the previous week [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week, port inventories continued to rise, and the average daily hot - metal output decreased slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has intensified. The profitability of steel mills has been declining, and downstream steel mills have started to cut production. Some iron ore inventories are locked due to non - market factors, and if these factors are removed, the iron ore price will face great pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coke market was stable, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts. For coking coal, supply disturbances were frequent, and the online auction failure rate was high. The import of Mongolian coal resumed normal traffic, and the market sentiment was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal weakly stable at around 1000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the supply remained tight, the market was pessimistic about future prices, speculative purchases were insufficient, and inventories accumulated at mines, ports, and steel mills. With the weakening of terminal demand in the off - season, coal prices were still under pressure in the short term. For coke, the production of steel mills and independent coking plants increased rapidly this week, inventories in each link except ports increased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The fundamental contradiction has eased, and the coke price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [5]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices oscillated. Near the end of the month, the supply of some coal mines tightened, which supported prices. The shipments of large terminal operators and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgical and chemical industries was active. However, affected by port price cuts, the sales of some coal mines were not smooth, and the wait - and - see sentiment spread. At ports, the market sentiment weakened, and downstream procurement demand was cold. Northern port inventories accumulated rapidly, and the pressure on traders to sell increased. The import bid price of coal decreased, and the market expectation was not good [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices have oscillated. In the long - term, the supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On November 26, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 928,000 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,367,900 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,800,800 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 123,300 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 2,904,100 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 16,300 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 99,700 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 171,100 contracts [1]. - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 364,400 call and 327,700 put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 692,100 contracts [20]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.88, with a month - on - month change of - 0.12; the position PCR was 0.84, with a month - on - month change of + 0.03. Similar data are provided for other types of options [2]. - The table details the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, position PCR, and its month - on - month change for different index ETF options [34]. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 15.43%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.70%. Other options also have corresponding VIX values and month - on - month changes [3]. - The table lists the VIX and its month - on - month change values for various index ETF options [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with limited up and down space. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases. It's advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [1][2] - For sugar, short - term prices have limited downward space and may have a weak rebound, but the medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price trend may not be optimistic next year [3][5] - For pulp, the current fundamental improvement is insufficient, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,625 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. As of October 9, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 1.065 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, accounting for 40.11% of the annual expected exports, and cumulatively shipped 318,000 tons with a shipment rate of 29.89%. China had cumulatively signed 28,000 tons of US cotton imports, accounting for 2.65% of the signed US cotton, and cumulatively shipped 5,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA report significantly increased the global cotton production in 2025/26, and the global cotton ending inventory increased significantly compared to September and shifted from destocking to restocking. The sales pressure of US cotton increased significantly. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. - Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton output decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, pushing up the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, and the expected output in Xinjiang has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,379 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%, and the sugar output will be 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.9% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, strengthening the surplus expectation. India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 25/26 season, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the price. However, the short - term export volume in India is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in Brazil will gradually weaken, so the downward space of raw sugar is limited. - Zhengzhou sugar: The latest announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and the sugar mills in Guangxi have successively started crushing, so the short - term supply pressure is high, and the price has reached a new low [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,208 yuan/ton yesterday, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,465 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market had some price fluctuations, with some prices of imported softwood pulp falling and some prices of imported hardwood pulp rising [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the European pulp port inventory decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply remained loose. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large - scale new production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For RU and NR, with the decrease of rainfall in Thailand, the futures price has dropped. The inventory in Qingdao Port and social inventory in China are increasing, and the increase rate has accelerated recently. The end - of - season in Yunnan is not conducive to the output of RU deliverable products, while Hainan may have an increase in raw materials. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, and the inventory of dark rubber in China may continue to increase. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand difference may be beneficial to the spread expansion between RU and NR and the reverse arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For BR, the upstream device has some changes, but the short - term supply change is limited. The production profit of private enterprises has improved, and the supply is expected to remain abundant. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,195 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,165 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025: The export volume was 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025: The import volume was 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC September 2025 report forecast: The global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports in the first three quarters of 2025: The total export volume (excluding compound rubber) was 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export volume of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export volume to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export volume of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - China's passenger car market in October 2025: The retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of growth. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - EU passenger car market in September 2025: The sales volume increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: RU basis was - 395 yuan/ton (- 20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (+ 70), NR basis was 826 yuan/ton (+ 15); whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (+ 0), 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (- 100). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,750 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.91 Thai baht/kg (- 0.46), Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.85), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+ 16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (- 68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+ 504) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: BR basis was - 160 yuan/ton (- 190), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 100), the quotation of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 9,880 yuan/ton (- 40), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,403 yuan/ton (unchanged) [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 72.64% (+ 2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core View - The EG contract closed at 3896 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 3910 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.20%. The EG spot basis in East China was 18 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit for ethylene - based EG was -60 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton, and for coal - based syngas EG was -1025 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (CCF data, unchanged) and 63.3 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports this week are 9.5 tons, and at the secondary ports are 1.4 tons, indicating a slightly lower - than - normal level overall [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and some short - flow oil chemical plants face production pressure. Overseas, there are limited changes in ethylene glycol plants, with a stable short - term port inventory, but there are plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December. On the demand side, the low - inventory polyester load provides some support, but orders are weakening marginally [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract price and the East China spot price changed, and the basis decreased [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas EG have changed, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level [1][2]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis was provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The low - inventory polyester load provides support, but orders are marginally weaker [2]. Inventory Data - Different inventory data from CCF and Longzhong are presented, and the planned arrivals are analyzed, with an expectation of stable and slightly decreasing inventory [2].

油脂日报 | 2025-11-27 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8440.00元/吨，环比变化+80元，幅度+0.96%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8150.00 元/吨，环比变化+6.00元，幅度+0.07%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9819.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8410.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.48%，现货基差P01+-30.00，环比变化 -40.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y01+180.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10140.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差 OI01+321.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：农业农村部发布农产品供需形势分析月报，国内市场：受国内油厂开工率提高，油菜籽进口 数量减少、成本增加等因素影响，预计国产油菜籽价格偏强运行。油厂采购花生按质论价，价格上涨。食用植物 油价格总体平稳，涨跌幅有限。国际市场：油菜籽阶段性供应宽松，出口贸易疲软， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple Strategy: Neutral to Bullish [4] - Red Date Strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current apple market has a slow consumption rhythm and weak demand. The market is affected by factors such as high prices and the impact of citrus fruits. However, the current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. The future market needs to focus on terminal consumption recovery, the impact of storage structure differentiation, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival [3][4]. - Red Dates: The red date market is currently in a critical period of transition between the off - season and peak season and the alternation of old and new seasons. There is a large inventory pressure due to the superposition of old and new seasons, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic. The actual consumption situation on the consumer side will be the focus of market attention [8]. Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,531 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.42% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 2031 changed by - 40 from the previous day. The price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 1231 changed by - 40 from the previous day [1]. Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.16% [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 260 changed by +15 from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The in - warehouse trading of late Fuji is dull, and the overall shipment is average. The出库 speed in the western production areas has slightly slowed down, and the Shandong production area has sporadic shipments, mainly through foreign trade channels. After a round of replenishment, the market atmosphere in the production areas has become dull due to slow sales. The price of high - quality goods remains stable, and the short - term market is expected to remain stable under the support of foreign trade channels [2]. Red Dates - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in the Xinjiang production area is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% of the total output. The price in the production area is weakly stable. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar is relatively fast, while the transfer progress in Kashgar is slow. The new goods in the Hebei and Guangdong markets are gradually on the market, and the downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to remain weakly stable [6][7]. Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price showed an upward trend yesterday. The in - warehouse trading in each production area is dull, and the shipment speed has slowed down. The market is affected by the impact of citrus and other competing products, and the short - term market is expected to remain stable under the support of foreign trade channels. The storage volume is more than 10% lower than the same period last year, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the storage structure has decreased [3]. Red Dates - The red date futures price fell slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the Xinjiang production area varies. The new goods in the sales areas are gradually on the market, and the downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The market is currently in a critical period of transition, with large inventory pressure and unsolved supply - demand contradictions [8]. Group 6: Strategies Apple - Be neutral to bullish. Pay attention to terminal consumption recovery, the impact of storage structure differentiation, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. Be cautious when chasing high prices [4]. Red Dates - Be neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to fall. The near - month contract may still have a certain downward space [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the lack of cost - side support limits the upward drive, and it may mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have eased, international oil prices have dropped significantly, driving the support at the cost end of propylene to decline. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of loose propylene supply and demand, there is insufficient upward drive in the fundamentals, and the market continues to fluctuate weakly. On the supply side, the PDH units of Binhuahua and Xintai Petrochemical continue to be under maintenance, and the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China is under maintenance, but the downstream supporting PP is also under maintenance, so the impact on supply is limited. On the demand side, the previously shut - down units have restarted intensively, and the overall downstream operation has increased slightly. However, considering that the downstream profit is under pressure due to the rising propylene price, the spread between PP and propylene has narrowed, and downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials, so the demand support for propylene has weakened. The international oil price trend is weak, and there is still pressure of oversupply in the medium and long term. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China is tight, and the price of external propane has strengthened slightly recently. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5820 yuan/ton (-18), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (+40), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6075 yuan/ton (+55), the basis of propylene in East China is 180 yuan/ton (+58), and the basis of propylene in North China is 222 yuan/ton (+92) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of propylene is 74% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha is 174 US dollars/ton (+2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 56 US dollars/ton (-2) [1] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 269 yuan/ton (+33) [1] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PP powder is 47% (+3.02%), and the production profit is - 365 yuan/ton (-15); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 75% (+0%), and the production profit is 647 yuan/ton (+8); the operating rate of n - butanol is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (-35); the operating rate of octanol is 77% (+8%), and the production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+60); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 73% (-2%), and the production profit is 440 yuan/ton (-39); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 80% (+1%), and the production profit is - 464 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 79% (+12%), and the production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 45040 tons (-2150) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea trading strengthened again after a slight price correction. The start - up of compound fertilizers in Northeast China is gradually increasing, and production scheduling in Shandong and Hubei has increased. The start - up of melamine has risen with rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage has gradually entered the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose, and the gas - head maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Supported by reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer start - up, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. The export quota news improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The report suggests a range - bound and slightly stronger trend for unilateral trading, a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, and no suggestion for inter - variety trading [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1654 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1630 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (-24), in Henan was - 24 yuan/ton (-34), and in Jiangsu was - 34 yuan/ton (-34) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 26, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1004 yuan/ton (-8). In October, 1200000 tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600000 tons, which improved the year - end export expectation [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61% (+4.29%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73300), and the port sample inventory was 100000 tons (+18000) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious and slightly bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The 01 contract may have limited upside potential, and long - term attention should be paid to the 05 contract [4]. - For PX, the PXN is supported by polyester start - up, but the high PX load and capacity expansion of some plants limit the rebound space. For TA, short - term supply - demand has improved, and long - term PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. For PF, the fundamentals are okay, and the processing fee is expected to remain stable. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - TA main contract spot basis is - 31 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: +12 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 201 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: - 11 yuan/ton), and main contract disk processing fee is 265 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: - 12 yuan/ton) [2]. - PXN was 265 dollars/ton (month - on - month change: +1.75 dollars/ton) [1]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit are involved in the analysis [16][19]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit are analyzed [24][25]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA loads, as well as China and Asia's PX loads are presented [27][30][31]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are mentioned [35][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (month - on - month: +0.8%). With the cooling weather and the start of Double Eleven, domestic sales orders have improved significantly since late October. The inventory of polyester factories is low, and the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 157 yuan/ton (month - on - month: - 7 yuan/ton). Short - fiber load is high, and inventory has been reduced to a low level. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and it is difficult to increase prices [2]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Bottle - chip spot processing fee is 447 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: +7 yuan/ton). Bottle - chip load remains stable, large factories generally maintain production cuts, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [3].