Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - On July 24, the funding situation tightened further, with major repo rates rising significantly. Affected by the rising expectation of industrial product price increases, the stock market rally, and the tightened funding situation, the bond market weakened further. The convertible bond market followed the equity market higher, with most convertible bond issues rising. Yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and yields on 10-year government bonds in major European economies generally rose significantly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market News Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, emphasizing that China and the EU should strengthen communication, enhance mutual trust, and deepen cooperation at this critical historical juncture [3]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued an opinion to increase financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and improve basic financial services in rural areas [3]. - The draft amendment to the Price Law was open for public comment, mainly covering three aspects: improving government pricing, clarifying the criteria for identifying unfair price behaviors, and improving legal liability for price violations [5]. - As of now, 735 billion yuan of the central budget - investment for 2025 has been basically allocated, focusing on supporting projects in multiple fields [5]. - The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on July 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan [5]. International News - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, waiting for the clarity of U.S. tariff policies. The market is now focused on whether the bank will continue to cut interest rates in the future [6]. - In July, the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction, but the recovery in the service sector offset the decline in manufacturing. The overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December last year [7]. Commodities - On July 24, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices rose slightly. WTI September crude oil futures rose 1.19% to $66.03 per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures rose 0.98% to $69.18 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.74% to $3372.50 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.63% to $3.115 per ounce [8]. Funding Situation Open Market Operations - On July 24, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, there was a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan [10]. Funding Rates - On July 24, due to consecutive net withdrawals by the central bank, the funding situation tightened further, and major repo rates rose significantly. DR001 rose 28.05 basis points to 1.652%, and DR007 rose 9.33 basis points to 1.576% [11]. Bond Market Dynamics Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 24, affected by the rising expectation of industrial product price increases, the stock market rally, and the tightened funding situation, the bond market weakened further. By 20:00, the yield on the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 rose 3.40 basis points to 1.7400%, and the yield on the 10 - year CDB active bond 250210 rose 4.80 basis points to 1.8350% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Results**: Multiple bonds were tendered on July 24, with details such as issue scale, winning yield, and subscription multiples provided [16]. Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "HO Zhongnan 02," deviated by more than 10%, falling by more than 28% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: There were various credit - related events, including the invalidation of a bondholder meeting, companies being investigated by the CSRC, a company being included in the list of dishonest被执行人, delayed rating disclosures, rating withdrawals, and a forced interest - payment event [19][20]. Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 24, the three major A - share indexes showed mixed performances, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 0.65%, 1.21%, and 1.50% respectively. The convertible bond market followed the equity market higher, with major convertible bond indexes rising. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 83.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.772 billion yuan from the previous trading day [21]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 25, Guanghe Convertible Bonds will be listed. On July 24, some convertible bonds announced proposals to lower the conversion price or were expected to trigger conditions for lowering the conversion price, and some were about to meet the conditions for early redemption [22][23][24]. Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Treasury Market**: On July 24, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased. The yield on 2 - year U.S. Treasuries rose 3 basis points to 3.91%, and the yield on 10 - year U.S. Treasuries rose 3 basis points to 4.43%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread remained unchanged at 52 basis points, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 4 basis points to 98 basis points. The 10 - year U.S. inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose 8 basis points to 2.45% [27][28][29]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 24, the yield on 10 - year UK government bonds fell 2 basis points, while yields on 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally rose significantly. Yields on 10 - year government bonds in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain rose by 9, 10, 11, and 11 basis points respectively [30]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 24, price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds were provided, including daily changes, credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, maturity dates, yields, and monthly changes [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, the funding situation tightened further, with major repo rates rising significantly. Affected by the increasing expectation of industrial product price hikes, the stock market rally, and the tightened funding situation, the bond market weakened further. The convertible bond market followed the equity market higher, with most convertible bond issues rising. Yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds in major European economies mostly rose significantly [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, emphasizing the importance of China - EU relations and the principles for future development [3]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued an opinion to increase financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and improve rural basic financial services [4]. - The draft amendment to the Price Law was open for public consultation, covering aspects such as improving government pricing, clarifying the criteria for identifying improper price behaviors, and strengthening legal responsibilities for price violations [6]. - As of July 24, 735 billion yuan of central budget - internal investment in 2025 had been basically allocated, focusing on multiple fields such as modern industrial systems and infrastructure [7]. - The central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [8]. 3.1.2 International News - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, waiting for the clarity of U.S. tariff policies. Since June 2024, it has cut interest rates eight times [9]. - In July, the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI fell into contraction again, but the recovery of the service sector offset the decline. The composite PMI index rose, but concerns about the business environment persisted [10]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On July 24, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices rose slightly. COMEX gold futures fell [11]. 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On July 24, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan due to 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [13]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On July 24, due to continuous net withdrawals by the central bank, the funding situation tightened further, and major repo rates rose significantly. For example, DR001 rose 28.05bp to 1.652%, and DR007 rose 9.33bp to 1.576% [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 24, affected by multiple factors, the bond market weakened further. Yields on the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 and the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 increased [17]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Various bonds were tendered on July 24, with details on issuance scale, winning yields, and subscription multiples provided [18]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Zhongnan 02", deviated by more than 10%, falling by over 28% [19]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple events occurred, including some companies being included in the list of dishonest被执行人, delayed rating report disclosures, rating withdrawals, forced interest - payment events, ineffective bondholder meetings, and companies being investigated by the CSRC [20]. 3.3.3 Equity and Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 24, the three major A - share stock indexes had mixed performances, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3600 points. The convertible bond market followed the equity market higher, with most convertible bond issues rising [21]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 25, Guanghe Convertible Bond was listed. On July 24, some convertible bonds announced proposals to lower conversion prices or were expected to trigger conditions for lower conversion prices, and some were about to meet early redemption conditions [24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 24, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and the yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries remained unchanged, while the spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed [25][26]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 24, the yield on the 10 - year British government bond declined, while yields on 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally rose significantly [28]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 24, price changes of various Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds were provided, including those of companies like Sunac China and Lenovo Group [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 23, the capital market tightened significantly, with major repurchase rates rising, the bond market remaining weak, the convertible bond market's major indices showing mixed performance, and most convertible bond issues declining. Yields on US Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, while the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. - There were multiple important domestic and international news events, including the confirmation of the start date for Hainan Free - Trade Port's customs closure, upcoming China - US economic and trade talks, and a US - Japan trade agreement [3][6]. - Commodity prices showed different trends, with international crude oil futures prices continuing to fall and international natural gas prices turning up [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Hainan Free - Trade Port's customs closure is set to start on December 18, 2025. The coverage of "zero - tariff" goods will expand from 1900 tariff items to about 6600, accounting for 74% of all commodity tariff items, a nearly 53 - percentage - point increase [3]. - China - US economic and trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, following the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call on June 5 [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve the coordinated development mechanism between state - owned and private enterprises and address cut - throat competition [4]. - Bank deposit rates continued to decline in June, with medium - and long - term rates entering the "1 era", and the average 3 - month deposit rate dropping 5.5BP from the previous month [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the underwriting amount of science and technology innovation bonds reached 381.391 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 56.5%. There were 40 securities companies acting as lead underwriters for green bonds, underwriting 71 bonds (or products) worth 59.444 billion yuan [5]. - In June, the newly - filed asset - backed special plans (ABS) reached 100, with a scale of 92.341 billion yuan. The top three ABS underlying assets in terms of newly - filed scale were financial leasing receivables, accounts receivable, and small - loan receivables [5]. 3.1.2 International News - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, with a 15% tariff rate on Japanese goods and Japan planning to invest $550 billion in the US. The US may also cooperate with Japan on LNG [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On July 23, WTI September crude futures fell 0.09% to $65.25 per barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 0.13% to $68.51 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3399.50 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.42% to $3.089 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On July 23, the central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method. With 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital withdrawal for the day was 369.6 billion yuan [9]. 3.2.2 Capital Rates - On July 23, due to consecutive net withdrawals by the central bank, the capital market tightened significantly, and major repurchase rates rose. For example, DR001 rose 5.66bp to 1.371%, and DR007 rose 0.85bp to 1.483% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 23, the stock market rose, the commodity market was strong, inflation bottoming expectations were strengthened, and the capital market tightened, causing the bond market to continue weakening. By 20:00, the yield on the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 rose 1.40bp to 1.7060%, and the yield on the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 rose 0.95bp to 1.7870% [12]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Multiple bonds were tendered on July 23, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [14]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 23, no credit bond transaction prices deviated by more than 10%. - **Credit Bond Events**: Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum cancelled the issuance of "25 Shaanxi Yanchang MTN001 (Science and Technology Innovation Bond)"; Moody's adjusted the outlook of Li & Fung from "stable" to "negative"; Liuguang Co., Ltd.'s shareholders planned to reduce their holdings; Fujian Sunshine Group failed to disclose its semi - annual report on time [15]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 23, the A - share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling 0.37% and 0.01% respectively. The convertible bond market's major indices showed mixed performance, with most convertible bond issues declining [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Longjian Co., Ltd. received approval from the CSRC to issue convertible bonds; some convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, early redemptions, or non - redemptions [18][24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On July 23, yields on US Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, the 2/10 - year yield spread remained unchanged, the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp, and the 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate decreased by 2bp [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 23, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends, with Germany's rising 1bp, and the UK's rising 7bp, while France, Italy, and Spain's remained unchanged [23]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 23, prices of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds showed different changes [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 22, the liquidity remained loose, with major repo rates continuing to decline; the rising risk appetite drove up the stock market and commodities, while the bond market remained weak; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues saw gains; yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the foreign exchange market has been operating smoothly and showing strong resilience this year. From January to May, equity - type inbound direct investment had a net inflow of $31.1 billion, a 16% year - on - year increase, and inbound securities investment had a net inflow of about $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend in the second half of last year [3]. - As of the end of June, the investment and operation scale of the endowment insurance fund reached 2.55 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will continue to expand the entrusted investment scale of the basic endowment insurance fund and regulate its information reporting and disclosure systems [3]. - The central bank reported that at the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a 7.1% year - on - year increase, with a 12.92 - trillion - yuan increase in the first half of the year. The balance of loans to enterprises and institutions was 182.47 trillion yuan, an 8.6% year - on - year increase, with an 11.5 - trillion - yuan increase in the first half of the year [4]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of bonds in the inter - bank market, accounting for about 2.5% of the total custody volume. In June, one new overseas institutional entity entered the inter - bank bond market, and there were 1,170 overseas institutional entities in total by the end of June [5]. - The cumulative issuance scale of panda bonds has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and foreign capital holds nearly a quarter of them. Recently, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued 2 - billion - yuan 2 - year panda bonds in the inter - bank bond market [5]. 3.1.2 International News - Trump claimed that the U.S. and the Philippines reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, and the Philippines opening its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs. However, the Philippine government has not confirmed this [6]. - Due to the ruling coalition's defeat in the Senate election, concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook intensified, leading to a decline in the Japanese government bond market. Calls for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru to resign within the Liberal Democratic Party grew louder. On July 22, the prices of 20 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds fell, and the yen depreciated against the dollar by about 0.2% [7]. - On July 22, WTI August crude oil futures fell 1.47% to $66.21 per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures fell 0.89% to $68.59 per barrel, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.81% to $3.258 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On July 22, the central bank conducted 214.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 342.5 - billion - yuan reverse repurchases and 120 - billion - yuan treasury cash time deposits maturing on the same day, the net capital withdrawal was 247.7 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On July 22, the liquidity remained loose, and major repo rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 4.65bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 1.60bp to 1.474% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - On July 22, the rising risk appetite drove up the stock market and commodities, while the bond market remained weak. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active issue 250011 rose 1.50bp to 1.6920%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 rose 2.20bp to 1.7775% [13]. - Regarding bond tenders, the 2 - year 25Guokai02 (Increment 6) had a winning yield of 1.4933%, the 5 - year 25Guokai08 (Increment 10) had a winning yield of 1.5673%, and the 10 - year 25Guokai15 (Increment 9) had a winning yield of 1.6939% [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On July 22, the trading prices of 5 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell by more than 28%, "H1 Bidi 04" fell by more than 22%, "H0 Yangcheng 04" rose by more than 96%, "H0 Zhongjun 02" rose by more than 357%, and "H1 Bidi 01" rose by more than 400% [15]. - There were multiple credit bond events, such as Shimao Group's overseas debt restructuring taking effect on July 21, and several companies canceling bond issuances or facing rating changes [18]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On July 22, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.62%, 0.84%, and 0.61% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.48%, 0.38%, and 0.64% respectively [17]. - There were multiple convertible bond - related events, such as JCHX Mining's convertible bond issuance being approved, Lanfan Convertible Bond expecting to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and some convertible bonds announcing early redemptions or non - redemptions [24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On July 22, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 2bp to 3.83%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.35%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 52bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 102bp [21][22]. - On July 22, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined. The 10 - year German government bond yield dropped 3bp to 2.59%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, Spain, and the UK also decreased [25]. - As of the close on July 22, the prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the bonds of Sunac China rose 4.1%, while those of Li Auto fell 1.8% [27].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a favorable bias, and the yield curve shifted downward in a steepening manner. Although the trade, financial, and macroeconomic data for June were generally positive, the weak indicators on the demand - side such as real estate, investment, and consumption limited the negative impact on the bond market. The central bank increased its support during the tax - payment period, leading the money market to turn from tight to loose. The short - end bond yields declined and transmitted to the long - end, resulting in a slight decline in long - end yields [1]. - This week (the week of July 21), the bond market is expected to continue its favorable oscillation. As it enters an economic data vacuum period and the market becomes less sensitive to fundamentals and the stock market, it may focus on the money market and monetary policy signals. With the central bank's clear intention to support the money market, the money market is expected to remain loose after the tax - payment period, driving short - end yields down further and transmitting to the long - end [1]. Group 3: Market Review Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market oscillated within a narrow range, and long - bond yields declined slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.02% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01bp, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2.12bp compared to the previous Friday, with the term spread widening significantly [3]. - On July 14, the bond market was weak in the morning due to the tightening money market and rising stock market, but recovered slightly in the afternoon. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.73bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract falling 0.08% [3]. - On July 15, the bond market strengthened as the weak demand - side indicators in June's economic data, the central bank's over - renewal of outright reverse repurchases, and the falling stock market. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally decreased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropping 1.69bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rising 0.18% [3]. - On July 16, the bond market oscillated within a narrow range. Short - end yields declined due to eased money - market pressure, while medium - and long - end yields rose due to continuous government bond supply. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds increased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.60bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract falling 0.05% [3]. - On July 17, the bond market oscillated strongly. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.13bp, and most 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts rising 0.02% [3]. - On July 18, the bond market continued to oscillate. The short - end performed strongly and the long - end weakly due to the central bank's solicitation of opinions on canceling the freeze of collateral for bond repurchases. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.22bp, and most 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell 0.08% [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 85 interest - rate bonds were issued, 15 more than the previous week. The issuance volume was 656.5 billion yuan, 33.5 billion less than the previous week, and the net financing was 143.3 billion yuan, 319.1 billion less than the previous week. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. Five Treasury bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.24 times; 20 policy - bank bonds with an average of 4.00 times; and 60 local government bonds with an average of 26.47 times [12]. Group 4: Important Events - In June, the export growth rate rebounded unexpectedly. The export value in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than in May. The decline in exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points. The import value increased by 1.1% year - on - year, 4.5 percentage points faster than in May. The decline in imports from the US narrowed by 2.6 percentage points [13]. - The financial data in June was strong. New RMB loans in June reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion year - on - year. The new social financing scale was 4.1993 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion year - on - year. At the end of June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month, and M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 2.3 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month [13]. - The macroeconomic growth momentum in the first half of the year was relatively strong. The GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first half increased by 5.3% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the whole of 2024. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in the first half was 6.4%. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in June was 4.8%, and the cumulative increase in the first half was 5.0%. The fixed - asset investment from January to June increased by 2.8% year - on - year [14]. Group 5: Real Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side increased last week, including blast furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt unit operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and daily pig iron output. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to fall [15]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated slightly upward, while most commodity prices fell, including crude oil and copper prices, and the rebar price decreased slightly [15]. Group 6: Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net injection of 1.2011 trillion yuan into the open market last week [25]. - Last week, R007 declined slightly, and DR007 increased. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward [26].

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[3] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from 5.8% in the previous month[3] - Cumulative industrial added value for the first half of 2025 was 6.4%, compared to 5.8% for the entire year of 2024[3] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May[3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.0%, significantly higher than the 3.5% for the entire year of 2024[3] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted retail sales, with related products seeing over 20% growth in sales[14] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in the first half of 2025 grew by 2.8%, down from 3.7% previously, with a full-year growth target of around 4.2%[3] - Infrastructure investment showed stable growth, while real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 11.2% in the first half[21] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to negatively impact exports in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to a shift from positive to negative growth in exports[5] - The government is likely to implement more proactive fiscal policies, including increased spending and interest rate cuts, to counteract external pressures[7] - GDP growth is projected to stabilize around 4.7% in the second half, ensuring an annual target of approximately 5.0% is met[7]

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, a rise of 1 percentage point compared to May[3] - Exports to the US fell by 16.1% year-on-year in June, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to overall export growth[4] - For the first half of 2025, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, an acceleration of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year[6] Import Trends - In June 2025, imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from May[7] - Imports from the US decreased by 15.5% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Cumulatively, imports in the first half of 2025 fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 6.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year[10] Market Dynamics - The reduction in US tariffs following the Geneva talks in May has led to a significant recovery in exports to the US, although tariffs remain high at approximately 41.3%[4] - The "temporary suspension" of global tariffs by the US has allowed Chinese companies to continue exporting to markets outside the US, with exports to ASEAN growing by 16.8% year-on-year in June[4] - The overall trade environment remains volatile, with expectations of a decline in export growth to around 1.0% in July due to ongoing high tariffs and weakening external demand[6]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion, an increase of 110 billion year-on-year[4] - The total social financing scale in June was 4.20 trillion, up 900.8 billion year-on-year[10] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - June saw a significant recovery in new loans, primarily due to a low base from the previous year and the effects of recent financial support measures[6] - Cumulatively, new loans in the first half of the year totaled 12.92 trillion, a decrease of 350 billion year-on-year, largely influenced by local government debt replacement[9] - The structure of credit improved, with short-term loans for enterprises increasing by 490 billion in June, indicating rising short-term financing needs[8] Group 3: Government and Policy Impact - Government bond financing was a major driver of social financing growth, with an increase of 503.2 billion year-on-year in June[12] - The financial support measures implemented in May are gradually showing positive effects, contributing to the increase in both new loans and social financing[5] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year[16]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations[4] - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a stable yet strong economic performance, reducing the immediate necessity for LPR adjustments[5] - The central bank is expected to maintain a policy observation period, with LPR prices likely to remain stable in the short term[5] Group 2: Future Adjustments and Economic Context - There is potential for LPR adjustments in the second half of the year due to external uncertainties and efforts to boost domestic demand[5] - The central bank's recent reduction of the public housing loan rate by 0.25 percentage points opens up possibilities for further reductions in commercial mortgage rates[6] - The actual residential mortgage rate is currently at 4.3%, near historical highs, necessitating adjustments to stimulate housing demand[6] - The next LPR adjustment is anticipated around early Q4, with a potential reduction greater than the previous 0.1 percentage points, possibly reaching 0.2 percentage points[6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 11, the capital market showed a complex situation. The capital side slightly tightened, the bond market was weakly volatile, the convertible bond market had mixed performance, and the yields of U.S. and European government bonds generally increased. There were also significant events in domestic and international policies, as well as price changes in commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned insurance companies to implement long - cycle assessment from 2025, adjusting ROE and capital preservation and appreciation rate to "annual + three - year + five - year" indicators [3]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Measures for the Suitability Management of Financial Institution Products", which will take effect on February 1, 2026 [4]. - The NAFMII launched a self - regulatory investigation into 6 lead underwriters [4]. - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs raised a total of 289.88 billion yuan and will be listed on July 17. Fund companies are preparing for the second batch [5]. - **International News** - Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [6]. - **Commodities** - On July 11, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and natural gas prices continued to rise. WTI August crude oil futures rose 2.8%, Brent September crude oil futures rose 2.5%, COMEX gold futures rose 1.41%, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.24% [7]. 3.2 Capital Side - **Open Market Operations** - On July 11, the central bank conducted 847 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 507 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On July 11, the capital side slightly tightened. DR001 rose 2.00bp to 1.343%, and DR007 fell 2.27bp to 1.472% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 11, the bond market was weakly volatile. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.65bp to 1.6660%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 0.50bp to 1.7430% [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of 25 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 12 (re - issuance) and 25 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 10 (second re - issuance) is provided [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities**: On July 11, the transaction prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "19 Baolong MTN002" fell more than 67%, "H0 Baolong 04" rose more than 122%, and "H1 Bidi 02" rose more than 192% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies such as Gome Electric Appliance, Orient Fashion, and Jiaoda Angli announced significant events including new enforcement information, pre - reorganization, and being investigated by the CSRC [16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 11, the three major A - share indexes rose. The convertible bond market was divided, with the CSI Convertible Bond and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indexes rising 0.03% and 0.20% respectively, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond index falling 0.08% [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Information on the listing, conversion price adjustment, and early redemption of multiple convertible bonds is provided [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 11, the yields of U.S. bonds across all maturities generally increased, and the yield spreads of some maturities widened. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury bond (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose 3bp to 2.37% [20][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 11, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally increased [23]. - **Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of July 11 are presented, including the price changes of bonds of companies such as Ideal Auto and CNOOC [25].