事 件 点 评 策略研究 政策表态为市场筑牢支撑并带来结构性机遇，大 盘有望向上修复，迎接跨年行情 ——12 月中央政治局会议点评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 分析师：熊越（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340524080001） 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱：xiongyue@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：叶子沛（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340525070001） 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：yezipei@dgzq.com.cn 策 略 研 事件： 会议对当前经济形势作出研判，指出"我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进"。从数据来看， 2025年前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，高于"5%左右"的全年目标，在美国关税冲击下仍体现韧性。 从单季度数据来看，随着关税冲击显化和国内经济结构的调整，三季度经济出现走弱，三季度GDP 同比增长4.8%，经济增速较二季度的5.2%放缓了0.4个百分点，显示出三季度经济下行压力有所增 加。进入四季度，我国经济运行基本平稳，稳中有进的态势持续。从10月份关键经济指标来看， 生产端，工业生产保持稳定，服务业生产有所回落；投资端，制造业平稳增长，地方基建回升 ...

事 保险行业 超配（维持） 监管引导"耐心资本" ，险资入市空间再释 保险行业事件点评 2025 年 12 月 7 日 分析师：李嘉俊（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340525040001） 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱：lijiajun@dgzq.com.cn 件 点 评 事件： 12 月 5 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》（以下简称《通 知》）。进一步优化险资长线长投、优化资产配置，降低相关业务资本占用，从而有望支持资本市场长期 稳定。 点评： 《通知》背景："一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"的政策靴子落地。5月，金融监管总局在国新 办新闻发布会上提出，为巩固经济回升向好的基本面，推出八项增量政策，其中包括（1）调整优化 监管规则，进一步调降保险公司股票投资风险因子，支持稳定和活跃资本市场；（2）制定实施银行 业保险业护航外贸发展系列政策措施。本次《通知》为调降保险公司股票投资风险因子及护航外贸发 展政策的正式落地。 行 业 研 究 《通知》内容：一系列结构性宽松政策。（1）对保险公司持仓时间超过三年的沪深300指数成分股、 中证红利低波动100指数成分股的 ...

证券行业 标配（维持） 锚定行业发展新航向，构建多元协同生态 证券行业事件点评 2025 年 12 月 7 日 分析师：雷国轩（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340521070001） 电话：0769-22117626 邮箱：leiguoxuan@dgzq.com.cn 事 件 点 评 事件： 12月6日，在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上，证监会主席吴清发言时提到，行业机构需立足自身 资源禀赋，从价格竞争转向价值竞争。头部机构应增强资源整合能力，力争形成若干家具有国际影响 力的标杆机构；中小机构需聚焦细分领域、特色业务与重点区域，深耕细作打造"小而美"的精品服 务商。监管层面将强化分类监管，对优质机构优化评价指标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限，提升资 本利用效率；对中小机构、外资机构探索差异化监管政策，促进特色化发展；对问题机构依法从严监 管。证券公司、投资机构在权益投资、价格发现、风险管理等方面要顺应时代发展。针对不同风险偏 好、规模、期限的需求，证券公司要提供丰富精准的财富管理服务，与投资者共进共赢，共同参与并 共享经济。 行 业 研 究 点评： 再提头部机构资源整合能力，并购重组市场有望再度升温。近年来，为加 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The recent favorable developments in the cultural and tourism sector include the acquisition of Junting Hotel by Hubei state-owned assets and strategic cooperation between Hunan Broadcasting and Zhangjiajie City, indicating increased state investment in the sector [31]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming to optimize the supply structure by 2027 and promote high-quality consumer products [19][21]. - The report suggests a gradual recovery in supply and demand in the cultural and tourism industry in the long term, while short-term focus should be on themes like ice and snow tourism and duty-free shopping [31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From November 21 to December 4, 2025, the CITIC Consumer Services Industry Index experienced a slight decline of 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by approximately 0.33 percentage points [7]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with comprehensive services and tourism leisure declining by 2.72% and 1.76%, respectively, while the hotel and catering sector increased by 2.52% [8]. - Among listed companies, 20 achieved positive returns, with the top five performers being China High-Tech, Tongqinglou, Junting Hotel, Fangzhi Technology, and Kede Education, showing increases of 33.10%, 11.65%, 10.69%, 6.74%, and 5.47% respectively [11]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the CITIC Consumer Services Industry was approximately 37.5160 times, remaining stable compared to the previous period [14]. Industry News - The report highlights significant news, including the issuance of a plan by the National Development and Reform Commission to enhance consumer goods supply and demand adaptability [19]. - Tuniu's winter tourism trend forecast indicates a peak in winter travel around New Year's, winter vacation, and Spring Festival, suggesting a release of consumer potential through staggered travel [23]. - Hunan Broadcasting and Zhangjiajie City have signed a strategic cooperation agreement, with plans for the Duyong Ancient City to open in July 2026 [24]. Company Announcements - Junting Hotel announced a share acquisition by Hubei Cultural Tourism at a price of 25.71 yuan per share, which will result in Hubei Cultural Tourism controlling 36.00% of the company post-transaction [26]. - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism's subsidiary plans to acquire 100% of Jinxiu Lianhua Mountain Scenic Area Development Co., Ltd. for approximately 344.56 million yuan [27]. - Emei Mountain A announced a shareholder reward activity offering discounts and free services to shareholders holding 500 shares or more [29].

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) released the 2025 Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) list, with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) moving from the second group to the third group, marking a historic breakthrough for Chinese banks in global importance assessments [1][44] - The upward adjustment in ranking will subject ICBC to stricter capital regulatory requirements, with additional capital requirements increasing from 1.5% to 2% effective from 2027 [1][44] - The banking sector is expected to attract funds due to the ongoing low-interest-rate environment and the "asset shortage" issue, leading to sustained demand for high-dividend, low-valuation bank stocks [1][44] - The insurance sector is transitioning from reliance on sales expenses to refined management and cost control, with policies encouraging a return to the core of insurance protection and supporting increased equity investment by insurance funds [1][49] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of December 4, 2025, the banking, securities, and insurance indices experienced declines of -2.18%, -4.12%, and -2.74% respectively, while the CSI 300 index fell by -0.40% [10] - Xiamen Bank (+4.94%), CITIC Securities (+1.15%), and China Pacific Insurance (-0.96%) were the best performers among sub-sectors [10] Valuation Situation - As of December 4, 2025, the PB ratio for the banking sector was 0.77, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks having PB ratios of 0.83, 0.62, 0.73, and 0.65 respectively [19] - The securities sector's PB ratio was 1.44, indicating potential for valuation recovery [22] Recent Market Indicators - The one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate was 2.0%, with the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.50% respectively [27] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares was 17142.93 billion, showing a slight decrease of 0.65% [33] Industry News - The China Actuarial Society issued guidelines on the allocation of costs for life insurance products, aiming to clarify cost definitions and management [40][47] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in November 2025 was 2.38 million, a 3% increase from October, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [46] Company Announcements - New China Life announced a cash dividend of 0.67 yuan per share for the first half of 2025, totaling approximately 2.09 billion yuan [42] - Changsha Bank issued 60 billion yuan in secondary capital bonds, while Industrial Bank successfully issued 20 billion yuan in financial bonds [42]

锂电池产业链 超配（维持） 锂电池产业链双周报(2025/11/21-2025/12/04) 锂电产业链 12 月预排产环比微增 2025 年 12 月 5 日 投资要点： 分析师：黄秀瑜 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340512090001 行情回顾：截至2025年12月4日，锂电池指数近两周下跌0.44%，跑输沪 深300指数0.04个百分点；锂电池指数本月至今累计上涨1.69%，跑赢沪 深300指数1.25个百分点；锂电池指数年初至今上涨50.47%，跑赢沪深300 指数34.92个百分点。 周 报 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 锂电池产业链近两周价格变动： 锂电池指数走势 锂盐：截至2025年12月4日，电池级碳酸锂均价9.41万元/吨，近两周上 涨0.43%；氢氧化锂(LiOH 56.5%)报价7.22万元/吨，近两周价格持稳。 正极材料：磷酸铁锂报价3.91万元/吨，近两周上涨2.62%；NCM523、 NCM622、NCM811分别报价14.80万元/吨、14.65万元/吨、16.60万元/吨， 近两周价格持稳。负极材料：人造石墨负极材料高端、低端分别 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The electronic sector has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 41.56% this year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 26.01 percentage points [10][11]. - The report highlights a trend of price increases among copper-clad laminate manufacturers due to rising copper prices and tight supply of glass fabric, with price hikes ranging from 5% to 10% [19][28]. - The demand for electronic products is expected to grow significantly, particularly with the adoption of M8.5+ materials in new GPU and ASIC platforms, which will enhance the value of copper-clad laminate products [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Valuation - The SW electronic sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.26 percentage points over the past two weeks and ranks 4th among industries [10]. - As of December 4, the PE TTM for the SW electronic sector is 57.58 times, placing it in the 95.69th percentile for the past five years [11][15]. 2. Industry News - A report predicts that global computing power will increase by over 70 times in the next decade, with significant investments in ground-based intelligent computing centers [19]. - Amazon's AWS has launched a new AI training chip, Trainium 3, which is expected to be more cost-effective and efficient than NVIDIA's GPUs [19]. 3. Company Announcements - On November 30, Huadian announced its application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [18]. 4. Industry Data - In Q3 2025, global smartphone shipments reached 323 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.57% [20]. - The price of various sizes of LCD panels has decreased slightly, with 32-inch panels priced at $33, reflecting a month-on-month decline [22]. 5. Weekly Insights - Following price increases from Taiwan's Nanya Plastics, the report notes that the trend of price hikes for copper-clad laminates is likely to continue due to high raw material costs and strong demand from PCB manufacturers [28]. 6. Key Stocks to Watch - The report identifies several companies to monitor, including: - Huadian (002463.SZ) with a revenue increase of 49.96% year-on-year [29]. - Lixun Precision (002475.SZ) benefiting from strategic acquisitions and market expansion [29]. - Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) with a significant profit increase driven by high-end PCB production for AI and data centers [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The total automotive sales in China for the year are projected to exceed 34 million units, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales expected to reach 16 million units and exports anticipated to surpass 6.8 million units [26][33]. - The tightening of purchase tax incentives for NEVs starting in 2026 is expected to create a rush in vehicle purchases by the end of 2025, leading to a potential "micro-growth" phase in the domestic market in 2026 [33]. - Export markets are seen as a new growth driver for major automotive companies, transitioning from merely exporting products to establishing local production capabilities abroad [33]. Industry Performance and Valuation - As of December 4, 2025, the Shenyin Wanguo automotive sector index has increased by 1.43% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.83 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [10][12]. - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 17.68%, also outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.14 percentage points [10][12]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the automotive sector is 25.38 times, with sub-sectors showing varying valuations: automotive services at 30.71 times, automotive parts at 27.11 times, and passenger vehicles at 23.69 times [16]. Industry Data Tracking - Raw material prices have shown mixed trends: steel prices increased by 0.20%, aluminum by 1.38%, and copper by 2.21%, while lithium carbonate prices decreased by 0.37% and glass prices fell by 0.26% [18][19]. Industry News - In November 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China decreased by 7% year-on-year, while NEV retail sales grew by 20% [21][22]. - The Shanghai government announced that all new or updated public charging facilities must comply with mandatory certification standards starting August 1, 2026 [22]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association reported a rise in the inventory alert index to 55.6%, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [23]. Company News - Li Auto launched its first AI smart glasses, priced from 1,699 yuan after subsidies [27]. - Changan Automobile reported November sales of 283,000 units, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with NEV sales up 23% [28]. - Xiaomi's automotive division has delivered over 500,000 vehicles since its launch [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are actively expanding into overseas markets, such as BYD and Seres, as well as those in the intelligent driving supply chain like Fuyao Glass and Joyson Electronics [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the communication industry, suggesting an "overweight" rating, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The communication industry has shown stable performance in the first ten months of the year, with telecom business volume and revenue continuing to grow. New infrastructure construction is progressing steadily, and user scales for 5G, gigabit, and IoT are expanding. The report anticipates that the industry will experience a period of technological iteration and policy dividends, with new growth drivers emerging from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy [3][37]. - The report highlights the significant increase in mobile internet access traffic and the recovery of cellular IoT module inventories, suggesting ongoing demand for communication facilities such as base stations, optical cables, and data centers [3][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Communication Industry Market Review - The communication sector has seen a cumulative increase of 6.31% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.72 percentage points, ranking first among 31 primary industries. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 68.87%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 53.32 percentage points [10][12]. 2. Industry News - TikTok plans to invest $38 billion in building a data center in Brazil, marking its first project in Latin America [16]. - In the first ten months, China's telecom business revenue reached 1.467 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [17][18]. - The global shipment of foldable smartphones reached a record high, with a 14% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025 [19]. 3. Company Announcements - China Mobile announced the approval of a state-owned share transfer, involving the transfer of 41.98 million A-shares to China National Petroleum Corporation [23]. - Meixin Technology reported the redemption of idle raised funds, yielding an investment return of 180,830 yuan [22]. 4. Industry Data Updates - As of October 2025, the number of mobile phone users in China reached approximately 1.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.47% [25]. - The total number of 5G base stations reached 4.758 million, with a net increase of 507,000 from the previous year [34]. 5. Weekly Perspective on the Communication Sector - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization, policy catalysis, and performance certainty," recommending stocks such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and FiberHome [37][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][43]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor market is projected to approach $975 billion by 2026, achieving a year-on-year growth of over 25%. This growth is primarily driven by demand from AI and data centers, which are boosting the logic chip and memory markets [12][35]. - The report emphasizes that artificial intelligence remains the main innovation driver in the technology sector, with various segments such as computing power, storage, equipment, and advanced packaging expected to benefit [35]. - Domestic AI chip companies are rapidly developing and achieving milestones in domestic substitution, with firms like Moer and Muxi accelerating their capital market strategies. Additionally, major internet companies like Tencent are actively adapting to domestic computing power chips, which is expected to accelerate the formation of a domestic computing power ecosystem [35]. Industry Overview Market Performance - As of December 4, 2025, the semiconductor industry index has increased by 1.82% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.22 percentage points. Year-to-date, the semiconductor index has risen by 41.03%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 25.48 percentage points [4][11]. Industry News and Developments 1. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) has raised its estimate for the 2025 global semiconductor market size to $772 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22% [12]. 2. Alibaba's CEO indicated that the company is experiencing significant demand for AI servers, with the current supply not keeping pace with orders [15][16]. 3. TSMC is expected to accelerate its global expansion, with capital expenditures projected to reach $50 billion next year [20]. 4. The NAND Flash wafer supply is tightening, leading to contract price increases of over 60% for some products in November [24]. Company Announcements - De Ming Li plans to raise up to 3.2 billion yuan for SSD and memory product expansion projects [25]. - Longxin Storage has launched new DDR5 memory products with speeds up to 8000 Mbps, showcasing competitive technology [13]. - East Core has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with a leading domestic cloud service provider [26]. Data Updates Smartphone Shipment Data - Global smartphone shipments reached 323 million units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.09% [30]. - Domestic smartphone shipments in September 2025 were 25.617 million units, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [30]. New Energy Vehicle Sales Data - In October 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales totaled 1.715 million units, marking a 20% year-on-year increase [32]. Semiconductor Sales Data - Global semiconductor sales in September 2025 amounted to $69.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [35].