Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the net financing scale of urban investment bonds has been negative for seven consecutive months, with a net repayment scale of 693.49 billion yuan in September 2025, reflecting a tight financing rhythm and continuous contraction of net supply [1][8][11] - Only six provinces have shown positive net financing since the beginning of the year, with Guangdong being the largest at 140.21 billion yuan, while Jiangsu has the largest net repayment scale at nearly 1200 billion yuan [1][11][15] - The report highlights that Heilongjiang has the highest net repayment ratio, reaching 52.01%, indicating that over half of its outstanding urban investment bonds have been repaid [1][13][15] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the encouragement of policies to foster innovative, specialized, and unique small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with a focus on expanding social capital investment in various sectors of the national economy [3][32][40] - Recent trends show an expansion in production and sales in key manufacturing sectors, with the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rising to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output [32][33][34] - The report notes that the government is actively supporting SMEs through various funds aimed at nurturing and investing in distinctive and high-potential enterprises, which is expected to enhance the development of high-tech manufacturing [3][32][40] Group 3 - The report outlines investment strategies focusing on regions with strong economic fundamentals and effective debt management, particularly in major economic provinces like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, suggesting a duration extension to 5 years for investments [43][46] - It also recommends paying attention to areas where significant debt resolution policies or funding have been implemented, with a suggested duration of 3-5 years for investments in regions like Chongqing and Tianjin [46][47] - The report highlights the importance of local government support and industrial foundations in cities with strong strategic significance, advising a shorter duration of 2-3 years to mitigate risks from potential interest rate fluctuations [47][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 24, and 19 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.052 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.10%, and a net profit of 2.117 billion yuan, up 140.43% year-on-year. However, the Q3 performance was below expectations [1][2]. - The average gold price for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3,203 USD/ounce, a 39.64% increase year-on-year, with Q3's average price at 3,459 USD/ounce, reflecting a 39.88% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company faced challenges due to impairment losses and other factors, including a significant impairment loss of approximately 720 million yuan, which was a 73.6% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 38.58%, a decrease of 4.36 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 7.40 percentage points to 23.11% [2]. - The company’s operating expenses for the first three quarters were 0.22 billion yuan in sales expenses, 1.068 billion yuan in management expenses, and 0.273 billion yuan in financial expenses, with year-on-year changes of +0.01 billion, +1.01 billion, and -0.65 billion respectively [2]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in production and profitability due to rising gold prices, with projected net profits of 3.267 billion, 4.347 billion, and 5.654 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its resource base through exploration and acquisitions, including investments in overseas projects such as Delarob and Sierra Leone West Gold, and has formed a partnership to hold a 20% stake in Zhongrun Resources [3]. - The company’s Haiyu Gold Mine, in which it holds a 70% stake, is progressing well, with an expected annual gold production of 15-20 tons once fully operational [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric equipment and new energy sector, including Ningde Times, Keda Li, and others, based on their strong growth potential and market positioning [5][6]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market continues to show robust growth, with significant increases in delivery numbers for various manufacturers, particularly for Leap Motor, which achieved a record delivery of 66,657 units in September 2025 [2][11]. - The announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding the governance of price disorder in the new energy sector indicates a move towards stabilizing market prices and promoting fair competition [3][35]. - The "Ning Electric into Hunan" project has been fully completed and is expected to significantly reduce coal consumption and carbon emissions in the receiving areas, highlighting the ongoing investment in electric infrastructure [4][59]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In September 2025, several new energy vehicle manufacturers reported strong delivery figures, with Leap Motor leading the new force with 66,657 units delivered, marking a 97.4% year-on-year increase [2][11]. - Other notable performances include Xiaomi with over 40,000 units delivered, and BYD maintaining its market leadership with 396,270 units delivered in September [2][18]. New Energy Generation - The recent announcement from regulatory bodies emphasizes the importance of maintaining a fair pricing order in the new energy sector, aiming to mitigate the negative impacts of price disorder on industry development [3][35]. - The report suggests that the recent stabilization of prices in the industry may signal a turning point for the photovoltaic sector, as efforts to combat price competition begin to take effect [36]. Electric Equipment and Automation - The State Grid Corporation's bidding activities in the first three quarters of 2025 reached a total of 1,409.12 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to transmission and transformation projects [4][59]. - The completion of the "Ning Electric into Hunan" project is expected to enhance the region's power supply capabilities while contributing to environmental sustainability by reducing carbon emissions [4][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting strong performance and favorable market conditions [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion due to renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - Industrial metals are expected to continue strengthening due to supply disruptions and robust demand, particularly in copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, while the SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 11.89% during the reporting period [1]. - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw significant price increases of 6.48% and 2.48%, respectively [1]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation - The report notes that aluminum prices are supported by a seasonal increase in demand and controlled inventory levels, with a current price of 20,950 RMB/ton [27]. - Copper prices are influenced by supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with a recent price of 10,374 USD/ton [12][41]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - The report highlights that aluminum production is expected to remain low due to increased direct supply ratios and seasonal demand, which supports price stability [25][26]. - Copper supply is under pressure from production cuts by major mining companies, which is expected to sustain higher prices [2][41]. 2.3 Lead, Tin, and Nickel - Lead prices have shown resilience due to tight supply conditions, with recent prices around 20,026 USD/ton [58]. - Nickel prices are fluctuating due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and supply concerns, currently priced at 122,180 RMB/ton [60]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have surged due to strong safe-haven demand, with a recent price of 4,035.50 USD/oz, reflecting a 6.48% increase [14][74]. - Silver prices are also rising, driven by industrial demand and investment interest, currently at 47.52 USD/oz [14][74]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with prices supported by strong consumption in electric vehicles and energy storage, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 71,300 RMB/ton [14][3]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 331,500 RMB/ton [3][14]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, citing strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The recent policy document issued by the Central Cyberspace Administration and the National Development and Reform Commission provides strong guidance for the AI+ government sector, outlining 13 application scenarios and emphasizing funding support and innovative business models [4][21] - The AI+ government industry is expected to thrive with several leading companies launching new products and applications, such as the AI billing system by Boshi Software and the AI government service assistant by New Point Software [13][21] - The release of DeepSeek V3.2 and its adaptation by domestic chip manufacturers like Cambricon and Ascend signifies a closed loop in domestic AI capabilities, integrating computing power, models, and applications [4][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of October 9-10, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.51%, the SME index decreased by 1.03%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 3.86%. The computer sector (CITIC) declined by 2.04% [31] Industry News - AMD and OpenAI have entered a four-year chip collaboration, leading to a significant stock price increase for AMD [23] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments released a plan to promote the integration of "5G + industrial internet" with AI [27] Company News - Soran Technology announced plans to acquire a 55% stake in Kunyu Lancheng Technology for 74.25 million yuan, with a valuation of 135 million yuan for the target company [29] - ST Guohua disclosed significant litigation progress, with a court ruling in its favor regarding a case involving shares and cash [30] Weekly Insights - The AI+ government sector is poised for growth due to robust policy support and the emergence of innovative applications. Key companies to watch include iFLYTEK, Deepin Technology, and Boshi Software [4][21] - The domestic computing power industry is also highlighted, with companies like Cambricon and Inspur being key players [22]

Group 1: Trading Strategy for Convertible Bonds Near Strong Redemption - Investors currently have high expectations for the stock market and prefer holding equity-like convertible bonds for greater flexibility. Tracking and analyzing the strong redemption execution rate and related price signals can help optimize investment strategies for equity-like convertible bonds [1][9]. - The strong redemption execution rate for convertible bonds in the third quarter is at a historical high, indicating that many listed companies wish to quickly convert bonds into stocks after triggering strong redemption [1][9]. - The rising willingness of issuers to convert bonds into stocks is also reflected in the increasing probability of bond adjustments, which has been rising monthly in the third quarter. This suggests that companies are eager to convert bonds during favorable market conditions [1][9]. Group 2: Weekly Convertible Bond Strategy - Most stock indices experienced declines this week, while the China Convertible Bond Index showed a slight increase of 0.03%. The performance of various sectors, such as non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel, ranked higher in terms of gains and losses [3][17]. - The average conversion premium for non-strong redemption samples has increased, indicating that the market is pricing in the strong redemption intentions of convertible bonds [2][11]. - Short-term market volatility may exert pressure on convertible bond valuations, but if a V-shaped rebound occurs, there is still potential for upward movement in valuations [3][17]. Group 3: Sector Focus and Recommendations - The report highlights two main areas of focus: the "anti-involution" trend driving long-term profitability in sectors like photovoltaics and steel, and the accelerated industrialization of AI, which is expected to provide strong elasticity in certain technology sectors [3][17]. - Recommended convertible bonds include those related to the semiconductor industry, which is benefiting from domestic substitution and growth opportunities, as well as bonds from companies in the high-end manufacturing sector, such as new energy and automotive parts [3][17]. - The report suggests monitoring convertible bonds from companies like Zhengfan, Xingrui, and Huanyu in the technology sector, and TianNeng, Songsheng, and F22 in the high-end manufacturing sector [3][17].

海外市场点评 外部变数下的市场悬念 2025 年 10 月 12 日 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：shaoxiang@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn ➢ 随着特朗普关税突临变数，本周末海外风险资产再起波澜，时隔 6 个月，这 一次是更像 4 月，还是更像 5 月？投资者应如何研判潜在关税冲击下的地缘动 向，对国内政策以及资本市场的叙事又将产生怎样的影响？ ➢ 4 月的剧本是关税不停地加码，最终在市场不堪重负下，美国选择让步；5 月则是首次谈判后，出口管制政策的"针尖对麦芒"，最终以元首会晤为破局。这 一次形式上更像 4 月，但其实更像是 5 月的"增强版本"。 ➢ 本次关税的升级，之前已有苗头。9 月元首通话、就 Tiktok 达成初步协议之 后，美国依旧"小动作不断"。尤其是 9 月 29 日美国商务部出台史上最严股权 50%穿透管制规则，进一步强化技术封锁。随后中国全面升级了稀土及关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of U.S. tariffs and export controls on Chinese products, particularly in the software and hardware sectors, emphasizing the need for domestic innovation and self-reliance [1] - The Chinese government is actively promoting domestic products through favorable procurement policies, including a 20% price deduction for local products in competitive bidding [1] - The report indicates that the domestic chip industry is gaining traction, particularly in the financial sector, with major projects like the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's procurement of Huaguang chip servers valued at approximately 3 billion yuan [1] - The report notes a substantial increase in domestic server procurement by China Unicom, with 90.1% of the servers being domestically produced, reflecting a strong trend towards localization [2] - The report anticipates a turning point for the domestic innovation industry (Xinchang) driven by supportive policies and improving performance of listed companies in the sector [2][3] Summary by Sections - **Policy Support**: The government emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance as a key development focus, aiming to enhance core technology research and innovation capabilities [2] - **Market Performance**: Several listed companies in the Xinchang sector have shown improved performance compared to the previous year, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on key players in the Xinchang sector, including China Software, Dameng Data, and others, as well as leaders in specific sub-sectors like industrial software and the Harmony OS ecosystem [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others in the special steel and pipe sectors [5]. Core Viewpoints - Steel mill profits are under pressure due to rising inventory levels and escalating overseas trade frictions, with production remaining high during the National Day holiday [5]. - The EU has proposed to cut tax-free steel import quotas by 47% to 18.3 million tons per year, increasing tariffs on excess imports from 25% to 50%, which may suppress steel exports from China and the US [5]. - Long-term capacity regulation is expected to be a key theme, with potential recovery in profitability for steel companies under precise control measures [5]. Price Trends - As of October 10, steel prices have increased, with rebar prices at 3,260 CNY/ton (up 50 CNY), hot-rolled prices at 3,400 CNY/ton (up 60 CNY), and cold-rolled prices at 3,810 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY) [3][12]. - The overall steel inventory has risen, with total social inventory increasing by 691,100 tons to 11,268,900 tons [4]. Production and Inventory - Total production of major steel products decreased to 8.63 million tons, a reduction of 37,600 tons week-on-week, with rebar production down to 2.034 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar fell to 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons week-on-week [4]. Profitability - Steel margins have declined, with long-process rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 11 CNY/ton, 10 CNY/ton, and 15 CNY/ton respectively [3][5]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - Hualing Steel (EPS: 0.29 CNY, PE: 22), Baosteel (EPS: 0.34 CNY, PE: 21), and Nanjing Steel (EPS: 0.37 CNY, PE: 15) are highlighted as recommended stocks [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [4][3]. Core Insights - The upcoming safety production assessments are expected to tighten coal supply, potentially leading to a rebound in coal prices, with expectations for prices to exceed 900 RMB/ton by the end of the year [2][9]. - The report highlights that the coal price has stabilized at 700 RMB/ton as of the end of September, primarily due to supply constraints [2][9]. - The transition into the heating season in November is anticipated to further increase demand for coal, particularly for non-electric uses such as coal chemical industries [2][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Lu'an Energy [4] 2. Stable performance and growth stocks: Jinkong Coal and Huayang Co. [4] 3. Stocks with recovery in production: Shanmei International [4] 4. Industry leaders with stable performance: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal [4] 5. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [4] Market Dynamics - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.3%, outperforming the broader market indices [14][16]. - The focus on safety inspections is expected to lead to further supply reductions, enhancing price momentum [2][9]. Company Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Baotailong with a 13.54% increase - Jinkong Coal with an 8.36% increase - Shaanxi Black Cat with a 7.51% increase [19][21]. Price Trends - As of October 10, coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port for Q5500 grade coal were reported at 703 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight increase [10][11]. - The report indicates that the focus on safety and production assessments will likely lead to a tightening of supply, which could support higher prices in the near term [2][9].