Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Oil Report 20250509: Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks Gradually Realized, Oil Price Spread Repair" [1][2][10] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints Palm Oil - The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] level for the p2509 contract. The Southeast Asian palm oil production is in a seasonal transition phase, with subsequent production expected to recover, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium to long term. The Indonesian B40 policy has not been clearly implemented, and its positive impact is expected to be limited. Domestic inventory is low, and subsequent ship purchases are slow, resulting in tight supply, but low cost - effectiveness restricts demand. Overall, short - term macro sentiment has eased, but there is still a weakening expectation in the future, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the 09 spreads of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm [3] Soybean Oil - The downside space is limited, with support at the [7500] level for the y2509 contract. Globally, South American soybeans are in a continuous high - yield pattern, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The fundamental pressure on US soybeans is limited, but the expected decline in the new - season planting area and the upgrade of China - US tariffs are negative for US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, but the downside space may be limited, with support around 950 cents per bushel. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the soybean oil inventory is at a neutral level, with supply expected to remain loose. In the medium to long term, the impact of weather is expected to increase due to the significant reduction in US planting area, and the uncertainty of China - US trade relations remains. It is recommended to buy on dips for the y2509 contract, and pay attention to the regression opportunity of the 09 soybean - palm spread and the short - selling opportunity of the oil - tank ratio [3][6] Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, it is prone to rise but the upside space is limited, with resistance at the [9700] level for the OI509 contract. Globally, the supply - demand of oilseeds in the 2024/25 season remains loose, but the supply - demand of rapeseeds has tightened marginally due to the slight reduction in Canadian rapeseed production and frost - induced减产 in the EU. The high - yield expectation of South American new crops still exerts pressure on the oilseed sector. Domestically, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and the supply of near - month rapeseeds and rapeseed oil is expected to remain loose. Recently, China's tariff policy on Canada has strengthened the downside support for rapeseed oil, but the domestic loose supply may limit the upside space. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be phased long - buying opportunities in the medium to long term. Attention should be paid to the regression opportunity of the 09 rapeseed - palm spread [4] Summary by Directory Southeast Asian Palm Oil - The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations this week. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production is being gradually realized, and the inventory accumulation expectation has put obvious pressure on the futures price. The increase in purchase intentions from China and India and the slight rebound in international crude oil prices led to a rebound after the price hit an eight - month low. High - frequency data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in April increased by 3.6 - 5.1% month - on - month, but production is expected to increase by 14.74 - 19.88% month - on - month, and it is expected that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory to 156 - 175 tons in April. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 5 increased by 19.88% month - on - month, and production increased by 60.17% month - on - month. In Indonesia, the export reference price of crude palm oil in May 2025 has been lowered. In India, the import of palm oil increased in March due to post - Ramadan restocking demand, but there are rumors that India may raise the import tariff on edible oils, which may suppress import demand [15][22] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybean futures fluctuated weakly this week. The ongoing South American soybean harvest season and concerns about demand have put pressure on the market. The good dry weather in the US Midwest is expected to facilitate soybean planting. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate reached 30%, higher than last year and the five - year average. As of May 6, about 15% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought, similar to the previous week. As of April 24, the cumulative export of US soybeans in the 24/25 season was 4327.96 tons, a 12.78% increase year - on - year, and the completion rate of the USDA's forecast is 95.46%. The weather in the US Midwest is generally good this week, with limited rainfall opportunities later [31][32][33] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - The South American soybean harvest is coming to an end, and the high - yield expectation is becoming a reality. The USDA's April supply - demand report estimated a record - high production of 169 million tons for Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season and a reduced production of 49 million tons for Argentine soybeans. As of May 3, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 97.7%, a 2.9% increase from last week. Various institutions expect an increase in Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season compared to the previous year. The Argentine soybean harvest progress as of April 29 was accelerating, and the BAGE estimated the 2024/25 Argentine soybean production to be 50 million tons [64][65][69] Global Rapeseeds and Rapeseed Oil - The global rapeseed supply in the 2024/25 season has tightened marginally. The USDA's April report showed a slight decline in global rapeseed production compared to the previous year. Exports and crushing of rapeseeds have both been adjusted downwards. The ending inventory has increased slightly, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has recovered to 10.41%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level in recent years. Canada is expected to see a 1.7% decline in rapeseed planting area in 2025. In the past two weeks, precipitation in the Canadian prairie provinces has been relatively low, but it is expected to improve in the next week. As of May 4, the Canadian rapeseed oil export volume increased by 8.02% week - on - week to 18.45 tons [76][77][78] Domestic Oils Market Review - This week, domestic oils showed a more differentiated performance. Palm oil and soybean oil fluctuated weakly, while rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Palm oil was dragged down by the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia, and the domestic import profit has been rapidly repaired, stimulating near - month ship purchases. Soybean oil was affected by the weak external market and the unclear macro - environment. Rapeseed oil was supported by China - Canada trade relations and tariff policies, and the dry weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas also contributed to its strength [97] Future Outlook - Palm oil: Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but medium - to - long - term production increases may limit the upside. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for distant - month palm oil on rallies. The soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm spreads are expected to repair, but the repair rhythm may be slow. - Soybean oil: It is recommended to buy on dips for the y2509 contract. Pay attention to the regression opportunity of the 09 soybean - palm spread and the short - selling opportunity of the oil - tank ratio. - Rapeseed oil: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there may be phased long - buying opportunities in the medium to long term. Pay attention to the export situation in Canada, domestic arrivals, crushing, and提货 situations [97][98][99] Pressing, Production, and Consumption - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 152.3 tons, and the开机率 was 42.81%. It is expected to increase to 174.3 tons in the 19th week, with an开机率 of 49%. The trading volume of soybean oil decreased. As of April 30, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 9.55 tons, a decrease from the previous period, and the rapeseed oil production decreased to 3.92 tons. The提货 volume increased slightly. The trading volume of palm oil increased this week [101][102] Inventory - As of April 28, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean, palm, and rapeseed) in key domestic regions was 177.88 tons, a 0.90% increase from last week and a 5.94% increase year - on - year. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly [126] Basis and Spread - This week, the soybean oil spot basis was weakly adjusted, with northern prices remaining firm and southern prices starting to decline. The palm oil basis declined steadily, and the rapeseed oil basis was slightly adjusted downwards. As of May 9, the September basis of soybean oil (Tianjin) was 395 yuan/ton, the September basis of palm oil (Guangzhou) was 579 yuan/ton, and the September basis of rapeseed oil (Zhangjiagang) was 230 yuan/ton [155]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that China's Q1 2025 economy exceeded expectations, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to address tariff impacts. The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as tariffs, inflation, and employment affecting different countries' economies [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP and Consumption**: In Q1 2025, China's GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, growing 5.4% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year-on-year increase. In March, it grew 5.9% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than January - February [4][21]. - **Investment**: Q1 fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 10.3174 trillion yuan, a 4.2% year-on-year increase. Excluding real estate development investment, it grew 6.3%. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments increased by 5.8% and 9.1% respectively [4][21]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In Q1, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% [21]. - **Exports and Imports**: In March, exports increased by 13.5% in RMB terms and 12.4% in US dollars. Imports decreased by 3.5% in RMB and 4.3% in US dollars. The improvement in March exports may be related to pre - export, and the future foreign trade situation remains severe [5]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - **Social Financing**: In Q1 2025, the cumulative social financing increment was 15.18 trillion yuan, with 5.89 trillion yuan in March, a year - on - year increase of 1.06 trillion yuan. Loans and government bonds are the main factors supporting social financing [35]. - **Credit**: In Q1, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with 3.4 trillion yuan in March. The credit structure was further optimized, and the effective demand continued to recover [35]. 3.3 Inflation Indicators - **CPI**: In March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, affecting the CPI decrease [41]. - **PPI**: In March, the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in international commodity prices [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Inflation**: In March 2025, the US CPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 2.4% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and 2.8% year - on - year, still higher than the Fed's target [48]. - **US Employment**: In March, the US non - farm sector added 228,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment data was better than expected [49]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: The RMB against the US dollar has shown two - way fluctuations. Recently, it was under pressure but remained within a range. Short - term risks include Fed policy divergence and geopolitical instability [56]. - **Interest Rates**: There are data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields, reflecting the current interest rate situation [58].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the future. In late 2024, multiple new units were put into operation intensively, and the production of units in 2025 continued throughout the year, resulting in huge production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load was also high, leading to a supply much higher than the historical average. Although the demand has entered the traditional peak season, the support is limited. Overall, due to over - capacity, the supply - demand relationship is weak, and the expectation of crude oil on the cost side is also weak, so the price center of polypropylene is expected to move down oscillatingly [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the tariff storm and the sharp decline in crude oil, the PP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the week but temporarily stopped falling and stabilized due to supply concerns. The East China basis remained at around - 20 yuan/ton, the North China basis ranged from 10 to - 100 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened from 80 to - 70 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend but was generally stronger than the standard product [19]. - **Regional Spread**: The North China - East China spread was relatively strong, while the South China - East China spread was at a low level. The spread between injection molding - drawing and low - melt copolymer - drawing in the non - standard basis changed little [30][31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of the futures strengthened to 124 during the week and then fell back to 76, indicating a weaker far - month expectation. The L - PP06 spread weakened to a minimum of 50 this week, and the PP - Wh spread increased slightly. The significant decline in the L - P3 spread was due to the potential production loss of the BBI process on the PP supply side caused by the propane import tariff counter - measure and the weaker demand for PE after the peak season. With the large - scale restart of Iranian plants, the load recovered and the shipping volume exceeded expectations, MA dropped sharply, and the MTO profit was significantly repaired to the level of the same period last year [36]. 3.2 Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: After the sharp decline last week, the crude oil price oscillated this week. The oil - making profit improved due to the weakening of the cost side. On April 4, the tariff on imported propane from the US increased, which would increase the import cost of liquefied petroleum gas in the short term and tighten the domestic supply. In the long term, the domestic pricing target may shift to ether - after carbon four. High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits, and the decline in methanol prices in the production area slightly improved MTO profits [41][42]. - **Domestic Output and Load**: This week, the PP output was 73.16 tons (- 0.04 tons), and the operating rate was 76.38% (- 0.05%). The supply loss of PP was 19.28 tons, including 12.47 tons of maintenance loss and 6.81 tons of production reduction loss. The previously shut - down units restarted one after another, the maintenance volume decreased, and the supply increased. In the future, attention should be paid to the maintenance of PDR units. On the other hand, the significant repair of oil - making profit increased the willingness to start production [8][59]. - **Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing scheduling ratio may indicate that the standard product is stronger than the non - standard product in the short term, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [78]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Europe and the US declined, especially in Northwest Europe. Asian prices mostly fell, and CFR Far East was greatly affected by the tariff policy. The demand in Southeast Asia was weak, and market transactions were cautious. The South Asian prices remained stable. The spread between CFR China and Northwest Europe was at a low level [87][88]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Although the RMB exchange rate weakened, the concern about tariffs led to a significant decline in overseas inquiries and export transactions, making it difficult to consume resources. On the import side, the overseas offers were few and expensive, and imports were blocked [104]. 3.4 Downstream Operating Rate - The downstream is still in the peak season. The comprehensive operating rate decreased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the downstream. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, the demand for fertilizer bags continued, and the demand for cement and food was also acceptable. In addition, the operating rate of injection molding increased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.8%. As the temperature rises, the demand for storage boxes, milk tea cups, and disposable transparent products continues to be released [9][107]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 2.07 tons to 63.71 tons, including a 1.07 - ton increase in the inventory of two major oil companies and a 0.7 - ton increase in the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises. The market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened. The inventory of traders decreased by 0.54 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.02 tons. Due to the decrease in overseas inquiries and the decline in export transactions, the port inventory fluctuated slightly [10][123].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for MEG, but the downside space may also be large. The recommended contract is eg2505. The logic is that although MEG inventory slightly accumulated in Q1 2025, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand driver is still upward under the current low port inventory. However, the cost of crude oil and coal prices has moved downward weakly. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the cost side stabilizes [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Prices - On April 2, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00, the price of动力煤 (内蒙Q5500) remained unchanged at 495.00, the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00, and the price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 8 to 2571.00 [7]. 2. EG Each Process Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, MEG's import profit increased by 13.31 to - 51.65 yuan/ton, oil - made profit increased by 72.27 to - 1168.02 yuan/ton, coal - made profit increased, ethylene - made profit increased by 65.41 to - 741.10 yuan/ton, methanol - made profit increased by 80.48 to - 1597.51 yuan/ton, and the weighted profit increased by 70.05 to - 803.66 yuan/ton [7]. 3. EG Basis, Spread and Position - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, EG5 - month basis decreased by 2 to 41.00 [7]. 4. PF Basis and Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 31.57 to 139.37, the closing price of PF2505 increased by 72 to 6662, the short - fiber main - contract disk profit decreased by 59.48 to 60.34, and the polyester staple fiber basis decreased by 72 to 88 [7]. 5. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - For refineries with high MEG inventory worried about price drops, they can long eg2505 at 4500 with a 50% hedging ratio to hedge against risks [5]. - For traders, when establishing inventory and seeking to buy MEG at low prices, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio to prevent price increases; when having inventory and seeking to sell at high prices, they can short eg2505 at 4600 with a 50% ratio for short - term risk prevention [5]. - For terminal customers in need of polyester raw materials worried about price increases, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward space of styrene is limited, with support at the price level of 7,600. The contract is eb2505. Looking ahead, styrene may show a pattern of having support below and pressure above. The support lies in the fact that as the maintenance season of pure benzene and styrene approaches, styrene inventory will gradually be depleted. The de - stocking degree of pure benzene is less than that of styrene, showing a mild de - stocking trend, so the price support in the second quarter is relatively strong. The upper - side pressure comes from the limited ability of the end - users to bear high prices. One should focus on the downstream profits of pure benzene and styrene. The price range is estimated to be between 7,600 and 8,150 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1产业链操作建议 - For refiners with high inventory and worried about styrene price decline, they can short - hedge a small proportion of unsold EB inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent unexpected risks [6]. - For traders building inventory and seeking to buy styrene at low prices, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan at an entry price of 77 [6]. - For traders with inventory and seeking to sell styrene at high prices, they can short - hedge a part of the inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent short - term price decline [6]. - For end - customers purchasing styrene and worried about price increase, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan at an entry price of 77 [6]. - For end - customers with inventory and worried about price decline, they can short - hedge a part of the inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent short - term price decline [6]. 3.2日度描述 - Crude oil is generally running strongly. The domestic profit of pure benzene has recently continued to recover to a seasonal high, while the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low valuation level [8]. 3.3产业链每日数据 - **Price Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00; the price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00; the price of toluene CFR China increased by 12 to 747.00; the price of toluene FOB Korea increased by 4 to 730.00; the price of pure benzene China CFR increased by 17 to 853.00; the price of pure benzene Korea FOB increased by 12 to 832.00; the price of pure benzene in East China increased by 145 to 6,760.00; the spot price of styrene in East China increased by 146 to 8,153.00; the EPS price remained unchanged at 8,950.00; the PS price remained unchanged at 8,800.00; the ABS price remained unchanged at 11,275; the EB outer - disk US dollar price in China CFR decreased by 3 to 975.00; the US Gulf FOB remained unchanged at 1,100.00; the Korea FOB decreased by 3 to 965.00; the Rotterdam FOB increased by 47 to 1,264.00; the China Taiwan CFR remained unchanged at 1,006.50 [10]. - **Profit Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the domestic profit of pure benzene increased by 152.9 to 532.54; the import profit of pure benzene increased by 1.4 to - 331.18; the non - integrated profit of styrene increased by 31.2 to - 161.72; the integrated profit of styrene (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) increased by 164.0 to 714.05; the import profit of styrene increased by 170.0 to - 106.69; the EPS profit increased by 73.73 to - 203; the PS profit decreased by 146.0 to - 353.00; the ABS profit decreased by 119.9 to 527.55 [21]. - **Spread and Basis Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the pure benzene paper - cargo spread decreased by 5 to 0.00; the EB04 closing price increased by 109 to 8,029.00; the EB05 closing price increased by 146 to 7,983.00; the EB4 - 5 spread decreased by 37 to 46.00; the EB04 East China basis increased by 37 to 124.00 [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Positive Changes**: Products with positive price changes include propane import cost (FEI propane) with a 72 increase to 5,087 and a change rate of 8.2%, methanol in East China with a 125 increase to 2,687 and a change rate of 4.9%, and many others like asphalt in Shandong with a 2.3% change rate and an 84 increase to 3,700 [1]. - **Negative Changes**: Products with negative price changes include hot - rolled coil in Zhonghai with a - 20 change to 3,370 and a - 0.1% change rate, 20 - number rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone with a - 146 change to 14,818 and a - 0.1% change rate, and coke in Shanxi with a - 194 change to 1,441 and an - 11.9% change rate [1]. - **Calculation Notes**: The document provides calculation formulas for key indicators such as the main basis (main basis = spot - main contract), the discount rate ((spot price - futures price)/futures price), and the change refers to the comparison with the same period of the previous trading day [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The downside space of styrene is limited, with support at the [7600] price level. The styrene contract is eb2505. Looking ahead, styrene may show a pattern of having support below and pressure above. The support lies in the upcoming maintenance season for pure benzene and styrene, during which styrene inventory will gradually decline. The de - stocking of pure benzene is less significant than that of styrene, showing a moderate de - stocking trend, so the price support in the second quarter is relatively strong. The upper - side pressure comes from the limited ability of end - users to bear high prices. One should focus on the profits of pure benzene downstream and styrene downstream. The price range is estimated to be between [7600, 8150] [4]. - Crude oil is generally strong. The profit of domestic pure benzene has recently continued to recover to a seasonal high, while the non - integrated profit of styrene has been at a relatively low level recently [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Toluene Spread - The document presents the toluene spread data in different regions such as America, Europe, and Asia on 2025 - 03 - 26, including the spread between benzene and toluene, and toluene and naphtha, with a daily update frequency [10][11][14]. 2. Pure Benzene Spread and Profit - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the domestic pure benzene profit was 268.62 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 87.5 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 334.89 yuan/ton. The pure benzene import profit was - 311.54 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 78.6 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 106.04 yuan/ton. The document also shows the pure benzene US Gulf FOB - South Korea FOB spread and other related data with a daily update frequency [9][21][23]. 3. Other Downstream Profits of Pure Benzene - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the EPS price was 8950 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 50 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton. The PS price was 8800 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 50 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton. The ABS price was 11312.5 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 62.5 yuan/ton [11][12][13]. 4. Styrene Profit and Spread - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the non - integrated styrene profit was - 119.15 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 63.6 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 3.74 yuan/ton. The integrated (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) styrene profit was 611.70 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 42.5 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 328.44 yuan/ton. The document also includes styrene price, spread, and other related data [23][24][31]. 5. EB Inventory Situation - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the China CFR price of EB was 961.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 26 US dollars/ton. The US Gulf FOB price was 1125.00 US dollars/ton, with no change. The South Korea FOB price was 951.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 26 US dollars/ton. The Rotterdam FOB price was 1223.00 US dollars/ton, with a daily change of 8 US dollars/ton and a weekly change of 10 US dollars/ton. The China Taiwan CFR price was 989.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 20 US dollars/ton [15][16][17]. 6. EB Downstream Profits - The document shows the profit data of EB downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS, with different daily and weekly changes [11][12][13]. 7. Pure Benzene Inventory Situation - The document presents the pure benzene inventory data in East China ports from different sources (Longzhong and Huarui) on different dates, with a weekly update frequency [45][46]. 8. Styrene Inventory Situation - It includes the inventory data of styrene in mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu and South China, national factory inventory, total inventory, and port total inventory from different sources (Longzhong and Huarui) on different dates, with a weekly update frequency [62]. 9. Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - For refiners with high inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can hedge a small proportion of unsold EB inventory by short - selling eb2505 to prevent unexpected risks, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - For traders building inventory and seeking to buy styrene at low prices, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan to prevent price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry price of 77 [5]. - For traders with inventory seeking to sell styrene at high prices, they can partially short - hedge to prevent short - term price declines, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - For end - customers purchasing styrene and worried about price increases, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan to prevent price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry price of 77 [5]. - For end - customers with inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can partially short - hedge to prevent short - term price declines, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - Attention should be paid to the inventory data of Longzhong's pure benzene and styrene at ports on Mondays, Huarui's pure benzene and styrene at ports on Wednesdays, the load and inventory of the styrene industrial chain on Thursdays, and the load and inventory of the pure benzene industrial chain on Fridays [5].

EGPF早报 日期: 2025-03-27 ZHESHANG FUTURES EGPF早报 核心观点 ® 观点: MEG 等待做多机会,但下方空间也可能较大 * 合约: eg2505 ® 逻辑： 观点：乙二醇进入25年Q1季度库存略积累，但在目前范口库存低位背景下，中长期供需驱动依旧在上，但成本端原油及煤价省偏弱下移，建议待成本端企稳后再逢低做多 主要逻辑: （1）目前油眼负荷偏稳运行，1月检修装置依旧棉多，后续关注滇海炼化回归情况。煤制方面后续来看，随着煤制剂润持续爆复，煤制负荷不断攀升，后续荣朗负荷动潍井高位近行，随着聚盛淡泽到来，聚酯负荷动碳暖下 滑，25年Q1库存或略有积累,但累库幅度相对有限,预计后续港口依旧维持相对偏低库存运行。 (2) 近期乙二醇期货价格维持区间震荡，整体呈现下有支撑上有压力的状态，25年Q1潜口库存或略有积累，但低库存现实下乙二醇价格支撑仍偏强，在化工板块中依旧偏多配。 产业链操作建议 快速套保 快速套保 (模拟) 场外报价 行为导向 情形导向 现货敞口 策略推荐 套保比例(%) 入场价格 相关场外产品 参与角色 套保衍生品 买卖 可针对未卖出MEG库存,按比例套保做 炼厂 多 ...

| 2025年3月26日收盘基差表 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 现货折盘面 变动 主力基差 变动 贴水幅度 价差结构 现货基准地 | | | | | | | た誠 2,916 -6 367 -3 14.4% 山东 | | | | | | | 日相 330 3,150 -10 +38 11.7% 日熊 | | | | | | | 生猪 14,820 -50 1,285 -130 9.5% 河南 | | | | | | | LPG华南 5,100 331 -46 6.9% 华南 - | | | | | | | 棕櫚潤 -44 6.4% 乐莞 9,410 -10 564 | | | | | | | 工业硅(出) 10,300 -100 ર્કર +50 5.7% 华东 | | | | | | | 棉花 新疆 | | | | | | | 14,385 +40 750 -10 5.5% | | | | | | | 丙烷进口成本 252 -8 5.3% FEI内烷 5,021 +38 | | | | | | | LPG华东 5,000 23 ...

注7:高硫燃油掉期为新加坡高硫燃油380掉期，合约月份为3月。低硫燃油掉期为新加坡低硫燃油0.5%掉期，合约月份为3月。高硫燃油 为新加坡高硫380MOPS价格, 低硫燃油为新加坡低0.5MMOPS价格, MOPS价格为前一交易日价格,仅供参考。 注8:从2023年7月4日起. 山东现货基准价格由京博切换为弘润价格. 山东弘润无品牌贴水. 山东地域贴水80元 注9: 集运指数(欧线)现货价格为每周一下午公布的上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFIS), 每周更新一次 注10: 纯碱贸易商基差报价数据由于品牌、交割库、点价合约等区别仅供参考 注11: 从2025年1月1日起, 山东现货基准价格由弘润切换为京博价格, 山东京博无品牌贴水, 山东地域贴水80元/吨 本表格仅供参考,不作为入市依据。 注3: 现货价格为当日上午或下午基准地报价,期货价格为发布时最新价:其中股指期现都用最新价: 注4:期货主力合约月份选择:股指4月,连续金属4月, 沥青4月,159合约为5月, 螺纹、热卷为5月,集运为4月,工业硅,碳酸锂4月 注5: 进口成本按FEl丙烷掉期折算成国内人民币计算,丙烷贴水已计算在内 注6:铁矿为65%卡粉,螺 ...