Market Overview - The market returned to a volatile range from June 9-13, with the Wind All A closing at 5142.43, down 0.27% from June 6, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell 0.02%[8] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Wind All A has increased by 2.40%, and the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by 4.65%[8] External Factors - The second round of China-US trade talks and escalating Middle East tensions were key trading cues, leading to increased market volatility[2] - The US CPI data indicated limited impact from tariffs on prices, supporting expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while geopolitical conflicts pushed oil prices higher[2][36] Strategy Insights - Following the second round of trade talks, market adjustment pressures stem from external uncertainties, particularly from the Middle East and potential changes in US tariff policies[3] - Historical data shows that after significant geopolitical conflicts, the Wind All A typically experiences a recovery around 14 trading days later, with technology and dividend sectors showing notable excess returns[3][39] Market Dynamics - The congestion level of the China 2000 index has decreased significantly, currently at the 79.3 percentile since September 2023, indicating improved structural issues in the small-cap market[16] - Investors are favoring industries with lower congestion levels while avoiding those with higher congestion, maintaining a "rotation thinking" approach in trading strategies[19][20] Convertible Bond Valuation - Convertible bond valuations have generally declined, particularly for crowded debt-type products, with the valuation center for 80 yuan parity dropping to 46.85%[23] - The valuation for 100 yuan parity has decreased to 26.37%, reflecting a broader trend of valuation adjustments in the convertible bond market[23][29]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The regulatory policies for stablecoins in China and the United States are advancing, marking a shift from technical experimentation to compliance development, which is expected to reshape the international landscape of cross-border payments and asset digitization [10][11][14] - Ant Group is entering the stablecoin market, while Circle's IPO is leading overseas exploration, indicating a collaborative drive among global market players to enhance the stablecoin ecosystem [11][36] Summary by Sections 1. Stablecoin Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, establishing a licensing system and core requirements such as "100% reserve, licensed issuance, and real-time redemption" [15][16] - The U.S. Genius Act is progressing, requiring stablecoins to be issued by licensed institutions with a 1:1 dollar reserve, aimed at enhancing consumer protection and financial stability [25][26] 2. Ant Group's Entry and Circle's IPO - Circle's IPO on June 5, 2025, raised $1.1 billion, with a first-day increase of over 160%, marking a significant event in the stablecoin sector [32][33] - Ant Group is actively pursuing a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, having engaged in multiple rounds of communication with regulators [37][38] 3. Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary companies include RWA: GCL-Poly Energy (Ant Group joint venture), Longxin Group, and stablecoin-related firms such as Sifang Jingchuang, Huijin Co., Yuxin Technology, and others [13][14]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on household appliances containing steel components, effective from June 23, which includes dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, ovens, and freezers [1][9] - The new tariff policy expands the range of products subject to tariffs and includes eight categories of household appliances as "steel derivative products" [1][9] - An exception clause allows products made with steel sourced from U.S. foundries to be exempt from tariffs, even if processed overseas [1][9] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Tariff Policy Adjustment - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on household appliances with steel components starting June 23, affecting various products [1][9] - Eight categories of appliances are newly classified as "steel derivative products" [1][9] 2. Company Key Announcements - TCL Smart Home announced adjustments to its Southeast Asia production base, planning to invest up to 0.08 billion RMB for a new freezer production line in Thailand, with an expected capacity of 300,000 units per year [3][13] - A second phase will involve purchasing land for a new refrigerator production line with an investment budget of up to 0.6 billion RMB, aiming for an additional capacity of 1.4 million units per year [3][13] 3. Data Tracking - Exports of washing machines and dryers from China to the U.S. showed significant recovery in 2023, with continued growth expected in 2024, although growth rates may slow in early 2025 [2][10] - The share of washing machines exported to the U.S. is relatively low at 3.9%, while dishwashers have a higher share at 13.7% [2][10] - The tariff changes may temporarily suppress export growth for dryers and dishwashers, but overall, China's washing machine exports are not heavily reliant on the U.S. market [2][10] 4. Raw Material Data - As of June 13, 2025, LME copper prices decreased by 1.4%, while aluminum prices increased by 2.2% [16] - The DCE plastic settlement price rose by 2.0%, and the comprehensive steel price index increased by 0.2% [16] 5. Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index for shipping rates increased by 7.63% as of June 13, 2025 [18] - The USD to RMB exchange rate saw a slight increase of 0.003% [18] 6. Real Estate Data - In the first four months of 2025, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by 3%, with housing starts down by 24% [22]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 本周沪锡价格环比上涨，海外供给偏紧预期对 锡价或有支撑 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，纯镍供给仍旧过剩 截止到 6 月 13 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 14,970.00 美 元/吨，较 6 月 6 日下跌 1.67%，LME 镍总库存为 197,538.00 吨，较 6 月 6 日减少 1.28%；沪镍报收 12.01 万元/吨，较 6 月 6 日下跌 2.13%，沪镍库存为 25,693.00 吨，较 6 月 6 日增加 0.30%；截止到 6 月 13 日，硫酸镍报收 28,500.00 元/吨，较 6 月 6 日价格持平。根据 SMM，从供给端来看，国内方面，菲 律宾的镍矿发运量继续增加，冶炼厂的原料库存较为充足。然 而，因成品价格下跌，部分国内冶炼厂可能会选择降低生产负 荷，这可能导致国内金属供应量趋弱。印尼方面，内贸火法镍 矿的升水依然坚挺，冶炼厂面临较大的成本压力。从需求端来 看，本周不锈钢市场出现大幅波动，主要头部企业采取不限价 不限量的政策 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The recent US-China trade negotiations in London have reached a principled framework, indicating substantial progress in managing differences and stabilizing economic relations, which may support global supply chain recovery [2][21] - OpenAI has launched the new o3-pro model, reducing its price by 80% and input/output costs by 87%, reflecting a shift towards efficiency optimization in large model technology and accelerating AI technology penetration into small and medium enterprises [2][21] - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding trade negotiations and highlights AI as a key investment direction amid global macroeconomic volatility, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and self-sufficiency for long-term development [3][22] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World" with 58.175 million yuan (25.6% market share), "Mission: Impossible 8" with 54.90 million yuan (24.2%), and "Time Son" with 28.366 million yuan (12.5%) [24][25] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Endless Winter," while the top three Android games by popularity are "Heart Town," "Sword Legend," and "My Leisure Time" [27][28] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "The Cang Hai Chuan," "Lin Jiang Xian," and "The Lychee of Chang'an," with indices of 85.3, 84.2, and 82.2 respectively [30][31] Variety Shows & Animation - The top variety show is "Ha Ha Ha Ha Season 5" with a broadcast index of 80.6, followed by "Run, Brother Season 9" and "Unlimited Exceeding Class Season 3" [32] - The top three animated shows by viewership index are "Cang Yuan Tu," "Xian Ni," and "Perfect World," with indices of 340.2, 225, and 222.5 respectively [34]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the production of platinum group metals (PGM) from self-operated mines decreased by 8% year-on-year to 46.2 million ounces (14.37 tons), with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 21% [2] - The average realized price for platinum group metals increased by 3% year-on-year to $1,533 per ounce [5] - The total production of platinum group metals fell by 17% compared to the previous period, primarily due to a decrease in third-party POC production [1] Production and Operational Performance - The total production of platinum group metals in Q1 2025 was 69.63 million ounces (21.66 tons), reflecting a 5% year-on-year decline when considering the impacts of the Kroondal mine transition and flooding at the Amandelbult mine [1] - The self-operated mine's platinum group metal production (M&C) saw a year-on-year decrease of 8% to 46.2 million ounces (14.37 tons) [2] - The refined platinum group metal production from self-owned facilities dropped by 30% year-on-year to 43.71 million ounces (13.60 tons) [3] - The sales volume of platinum group metals from production (excluding trade sales) decreased by 30% year-on-year to 49.37 million ounces (15.36 tons) [4] Price Trends - The average realized price for platinum increased by 11% year-on-year, while ruthenium saw a 36% increase, although palladium prices fell by 8%, partially offsetting the overall price increase [7] - The overall sales volume of platinum group metals, including both self-produced and traded, increased by 58% year-on-year to 302.22 million ounces (94.00 tons) [7] Future Guidance - For 2025, the company expects mining and refining metal production to be between 3 million to 3.4 million ounces (93.31-105.75 tons) of platinum group metals [9] - The expected unit cash operating cost for platinum group metals is projected to be between 17,500 to 18,500 Rand per ounce, with an AISC target of $970 to $1,000 per 3E ounce [9]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 13 日 [Table_Title] Impala Platinum 2025Q1 受控运营的 6E 矿石铂族 金属产量同比下降 6%至 19.19 吨，6E 矿石铂族金 属总产量同比下降 6%至 24.26 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的季度，精矿收入受到托管矿和合资矿 交付量下降的影响，抵消了第三方代加工量增加带来的好处。 托管矿的收货量下降了 20%，至 17.4 万盎司（5.41 吨）。合 资矿的收货量下降了 19%，至 10.6 万盎司（3.30 吨），原因 是 Mimosa 矿的精矿交付受到行政延误的影响。由于之前累积 的库存减少，矿山直销业务（Zimplats、Marula、Two Rivers 和 Mimosa）和 IRS 第三方客户的精炼 6E 铂族金属产量同 比增加了 17%，达到 36.1 万盎司（11.23 吨）。 ►2025 财年指引 2025 财年 6E 铂族金属精炼且可销售产量指引维持在 345 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report indicates a decrease in PGM production by 12.5% quarter-on-quarter to 448,114 ounces (13.94 tons) and a decrease in gold production by 22.0% to 141,110 ounces (4.39 tons) in Q1 2025 [1][3] - The average basket price for PGM increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to $1,362 per ounce, while the average gold price received was $2,832 per ounce, reflecting a 7.0% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][3] - The adjusted EBITDA for the group grew by 89% year-on-year to 4.1 billion Rand ($222 million), indicating significant financial improvement [6] - The report highlights operational challenges in the South African gold mining business, which are expected to improve in Q2 2025 [7] Production and Financial Performance - PGM sales decreased by 15.2% quarter-on-quarter to 473,028 ounces (14.71 tons), with a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [1] - The operational cost for PGM was $1,393 per ounce, reflecting a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 6.7% increase year-on-year [1] - The total cost for gold was $2,522 per ounce, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.6% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [3] - The adjusted EBITDA for South African gold operations increased by 178% year-on-year to 1.8 billion Rand ($98 million) [7] Future Guidance - The operational guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, with expected PGM production in the U.S. between 255,000 ounces and 270,000 ounces [11] - The anticipated capital expenditure for the U.S. PGM business is projected to be between $100 million and $110 million [11] - The report forecasts a decrease in gold production in South Africa to between 16,000 kg (514,000 ounces) and 17,000 kg (546,000 ounces) [12]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：资金预防性收紧，莫慌 | | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 12 日，权益市场横盘震荡，板块线索暂不明晰，科技、医药、消费均有亮点；债市在资金面偏紧背景下 普遍上行，仅超长端表现较强。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，各大指数窄幅震荡，大盘指数中，上证指数微涨 0.01%，中证红利指数持平，沪 深 300 下跌 0.06%；小微盘表现相对占优，中证 2000、万得微盘股指分别上涨 0.26%、1.36%；科技行情延续调 整，科创 50、恒生科技分别下跌 0.30%、2.20%。债市，利率曲线继续走平，长端小幅分化，10 年期国债活跃券 收益率上行 0.3bp 至 1.65%，30 年期活跃券收益率则下行 0.2bp 至 1.85%；10 年期主力合约下跌 0.04%，30 年 期主力合约小幅收涨 0.07%。 商品方面，或受美国降息预期升温推动，黄金价格持续上涨趋势，伦敦金价格由 3360 美金/盎司升至 3380 美 金/盎司，纽约金价格由 3380 美金/盎司攀升至 3408 美金/盎司以 ...