Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to cautiously go long on glass [2][72]. Core Viewpoints - Despite the existence of negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level. There is still time for changes before the expiration of the main contract. With multiple positive news in the macro - real estate sector and the weakening of short - side strength, it is advisable to focus on the glass price range of 1030 - 1050 and cautiously go long. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash due to the expected cost reduction from natural soda [2][72]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Market Review: Spot Price Increase and Basis Turning Positive - **Spot Price**: As of January 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,020 yuan/ton (+10) in North China, 1,110 yuan/ton (+50) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The 05 contract of glass closed at 1,056 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly decline of 8 [13][14]. - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 64 yuan/ton (+68). The 05 - 09 spread was - 111 yuan/ton (-5). The spread between soda ash and glass was 148 yuan/ton (+14) as of January 30 [15][19]. 02. Supply - Demand Pattern: High Inventory and Overall Loss - **Profit**: The overall glass production is in a loss state. The cost of natural gas production process is 1,568 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a gross profit of - 388 yuan/ton (-10); the cost of coal - gas production process is 1,169 yuan/ton (+4), with a gross profit of - 149 yuan/ton (+6); the cost of petroleum coke production process is 1,109 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a gross profit of 1 yuan/ton (+50) [23]. - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 150,135 tons/day (+600), with 213 production lines in operation. One production line was restarted last week [25]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,256.4 million weight boxes (-65.2). Inventories in North China, Central China, East China, Southwest, and some factory warehouses decreased, while that in South China increased slightly [29]. - **Deep - processing**: On January 29, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 99% (-6%). On January 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 41.2% (-2.4%). In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [31]. - **Demand**: - **Automobile**: In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 units; sales were 3.272 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 units. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.337 million units, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [35]. - **Real Estate**: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; new construction area was 53.13 million square meters (-19%); construction area was 38.24 million square meters (-47%); commercial housing sales area was 94 million square meters (-17%). From January 19 to January 25, the total trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.43 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 28%. In December, real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [45]. - **Import and Export**: In December, China's float glass imports were 292,400 weight boxes (a year - on - year decrease of 67%), and exports were 1.7394 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 39%) [47]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: - **Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,235 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,240 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,425 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. The 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,204 yuan/ton (+6) last Friday, and the basis of the soda ash Huazhong 05 contract was 36 yuan/ton (-6) [50][51]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1,307 yuan/ton (+8), with a gross profit of - 88 yuan/ton (+8); the cost of the co - production method was 1,755 yuan/ton (+57), with a gross profit of - 27 yuan/ton (+14) [55][57]. - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons), including 421,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons) and 362,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons). The loss volume was 145,900 tons (a month - on - month increase of 24,700 tons). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 1,779 pieces (a month - on - month increase of 1,779 pieces). As of January 30, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5442 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons), including 716,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons) and 828,100 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 3,600 tons) [64]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 401,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 358,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,900 tons. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 97.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.92%. In December, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 27.2 days [69]. 03. Investment Strategy: Try to Go Long at Low Prices - **Investment Strategy**: Cautiously go long. The main logic is that although there are negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level. There is still time for changes before the expiration of the main contract. With positive news in the macro - real estate sector and the weakening of short - side strength, focus on the glass price range of 1030 - 1050 and cautiously go long. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [2][72].

螺纹：震荡格局延续 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-02-02 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 2月观点：震荡格局延续 区间交易为主 逻辑与策略 1月回顾：1月份，黑色期货价格冲高回落，呈现出"倒V型"走势，较去年12月底稳中有涨，就指数涨跌幅度而言，呈现出焦煤 >焦炭>热卷>螺纹>铁矿格局。宏观方面，市场氛围偏暖，大宗商品价格普涨，而黑色表现平淡。产业方面，1月螺纹钢需求季节性走 弱，产量小幅回升，库存逐步累积，不过目前库存处于近年同期低位水平。 2月展望：宏观方面，全球不确定性加剧，美国对伊朗实施新一轮制裁、美联储新任主席人选影响后期货币政策，短期国内可能 处于政策真空期，产业方面，2月因春节放假，钢材需求回落幅度加大，累库速度会加快，目前钢厂利润尚可，关注产量变化，原料端， 节前下游仍存在一定补库空间，对原料价格有所支撑，不过原料自身供需格局偏宽松。从估值角度来看，目前螺纹钢价格略高于电炉 谷电与长流程成本，估值中性略偏低，预计2月价格涨跌空间都不大，延续震荡格局 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock indices, "sideways movement" for treasury bonds, etc. [1][5] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading suggestions and market analysis for each product based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events. [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Market is resilient, influenced by factors like Fed's policy, geopolitical events, and real - estate policy. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways movement. There is no significant explicit negative factor, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflow. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. Coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but price increase sustainability is limited due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Futures price is slightly higher than off - peak electricity cost of electric arc furnace and lower than peak electricity cost. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. [8] - **Glass**: Hold off. Supply is stable, demand is weak in the north and has local support in the south. There is a risk of production - sales decline before the Spring Festival. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Hold off or hold long positions with light positions and roll. Macro - factors support prices, but fundamentals are weak. There is a risk of callback before the Spring Festival. [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is relatively stable, demand is entering the off - season, and prices may continue high - level adjustment. [13] - **Nickel**: Hold off. Indonesian quota reduction boosts sentiment, but fundamentals are weak. Price increase may be fully priced. [14][15] - **Tin**: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions. Supply is tight, consumption is in a recovery trend, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical tensions and Fed's policy affect prices. Mid - term price center moves up. [17] - **Silver**: Bullish. Similar to gold, geopolitical and economic factors drive prices up. Mid - term price center moves up. [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply is affected by mine risks, demand is strong, and prices are expected to be bullish. [18][19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and export is a key factor. Low - level may have been reached, long - term long - position thinking. [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Hold off. Demand is weak, supply is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. [21] - **Styrene**: Range trading. Price rebounds due to export and maintenance, but valuation is high. Long - term, pay attention to cost and supply - demand improvement. [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is expected to shrink seasonally, cost supports prices, but there is a risk of callback. [23] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, demand from compound fertilizer and other industries supports prices, and prices are expected to move sideways. [25] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand from olefin production and traditional downstream is weak, and prices are affected by geopolitical and port factors. [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish sideways. Supply increases, demand from PE downstream declines, and PP has some support. Prices are expected to be weak. [27] - **Soda Ash**: Hold off. Supply is expected to contract, demand from downstream is mixed, and cost supports prices. [28] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Sideways adjustment. Global cotton supply decreases and demand increases, but internal - external price difference suppresses domestic prices. [28] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. Market is generally stable and weak, with different trading situations in different regions. [30] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. Raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, with a high - quality - high - price principle. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and long - term price increase is cautious. Short - term, short on rallies for off - season contracts; long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction. [31][33] - **Eggs**: Rebound from low levels. Current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. [34][35] - **Corn**: Upside limited. Short - term supply - demand is balanced, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Sideways at low levels. Short - term, M2603 contract moves sideways; long - term, 05 contract is under pressure. [37] - **Oils**: Bullish sideways. Fundamental factors support price increases, but the upward momentum may weaken over time. [37][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; wait - and - see for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Wait - and - see or hold long positions lightly for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading or take profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish for silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][11][13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; bearish - sideways for polyolefins [1][19][21][25] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Sideways adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; sideways trading for apples and jujubes [1][26][28] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - term range - bound for live pigs, suggesting shorting on rallies for off - season contracts; short - term rebound for eggs, suggesting hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies; limited upside for corn, suggesting hedging on rallies; sideways at low levels for soybean meal; bullish - sideways for oils and fats [1][29][31][32][33][34][39] 2. Core Views - The market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Macro factors, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events all have an impact on the market. For example, geopolitical tensions, Fed policies, and supply - demand changes in different industries affect the prices and trends of corresponding futures products [5][11][17] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is resilient and may trade sideways in the short term. In the medium to long term, it is bullish, and investors are advised to buy on dips. Factors such as Fed policies, geopolitical events, and the real - estate industry situation affect the market [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is no significant explicit negative news in the bond market, which is expected to trade sideways. There is limited room for the bond yield to decline, and it may wait for the next - stage main theme [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. The price increase lacks sustainability due to factors such as weak downstream demand, coal mine inventory clearance, and short - term cold snaps. It is recommended for short - term trading [7][8] - **Rebar**: The futures price trades in a narrow range. The static valuation is relatively low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended for range trading [8] - **Glass**: The supply is stable, the market speculative demand weakens, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to trade sideways in the range of 1050 - 1070. It is recommended to wait and see [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - level provides strong support, but the fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to trade sideways at a high level with limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions lightly [11] - **Aluminum**: The supply is relatively stable, the demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may continue to adjust at a high level. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: Although the Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction boosts the price, the current market has fully priced in. The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand maintains rigid procurement. The price is expected to trade sideways. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Geopolitical tensions and changes in Fed policies lead to a rise in prices. The medium - term price center moves up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold, being cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to trade sideways in a range [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There are opportunities for export and policy - driven industrial upgrading. The bottom may have been reached, and it is recommended for range trading [19] - **Caustic Soda**: The demand is weak, the supply pressure is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: It rebounds rapidly due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices. It is recommended for range trading [21] - **Rubber**: The supply is shrinking, the inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended for range trading [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to trade sideways in the range of 1730 - 1830 [23] - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is decreasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price in some regions is strong due to geopolitical and supply - reduction factors. It is recommended for range trading [24][25] - **Polyolefins**: The cost support is strengthened, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to trade sideways with a bearish bias [25][26] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing, and the price is in high - level sideways adjustment. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The market for apples is generally stable with a weak bias, and the jujube market is trading sideways [28] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is range - bound due to supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long term, the price is cautiously bullish, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [29][30] - **Eggs**: The current valuation is high. It is recommended to hedge post - holiday contracts on rallies, especially the 05 and 06 contracts [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upside is limited. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [32][33][34] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term M2603 contract trades sideways, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels [34] - **Oils and Fats**: The three major oils and fats are expected to trade sideways with a bullish bias. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [33][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

Report Investment Ratings Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [6] - Rebar: Range trading [7] - Glass: Hold off [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold off or hold long positions lightly and roll [9] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [11] - Nickel: Hold off [12] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [13] - Gold: Range trading [15] - Silver: Bullish [15] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [17] - Caustic soda: Hold off [19] - Soda ash: Hold off [26] - Styrene: Range trading [19] - Rubber: Range trading [21] - Urea: Range trading [23] - Methanol: Range trading [25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [26] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [28] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short on rebounds [30] - Eggs: Avoid shorting in the short term [32] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound [41] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their respective market fundamentals, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international situations. It also analyzes short - term and long - term trends and risks of each product to help investors make decisions. Summary by Category Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Affected by international trade policies, central bank policies, and market sentiment, it may range - bound in the short term but is long - term bullish [5] - Treasury bonds: Without significant negative factors, they may range - bound in a narrow range as there is limited impetus for further interest rate declines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Due to weak fundamentals, demand is sluggish, and supply disturbances may limit the downside. Short - term trading is recommended [6] - Rebar: With a slight over - valuation in price, weak short - term supply - demand contradictions, and a policy vacuum period, range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: With stable supply, weakening speculative demand, and limited downstream inventory digestion, it may range - bound around 1050 - 1070. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supported by macro factors but with weak fundamentals, it may range - bound at high levels. Be cautious of pre - holiday profit - taking [9] - Aluminum: With stable supply, weakening demand, and cooling of market sentiment, it may adjust at high levels [11] - Nickel: Although stimulated by policy, fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold off [12] - Tin: With tight supply and stable demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and demand recovery [13] - Gold and silver: Driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's policy expectations, they are bullish. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is recommended for range trading [15] - Lithium carbonate: With supply disturbances and strong demand, it may range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, it may have a bottom. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [17] - Caustic soda: With high supply pressure and weak demand, it may range - bound at low levels. Attention should be paid to supply - side adjustments [19] - Styrene: With high valuation after a rebound, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. Attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber: With supply contraction but high inventory pressure, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21] - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply - side changes and demand trends [23] - Methanol: With weak domestic demand and strong local prices, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and port arrivals [25] - Polyolefins: With increasing supply and weakening demand, they may range - bound weakly. Attention should be paid to cost and demand [25] - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and cost support, it is recommended to hold off [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: With a decrease in global cotton output and an increase in consumption, long - term expectations are optimistic, but short - term caution is needed [26] - Apples: With slow sales in the main production areas and slightly improved sales in some secondary areas, they may range - bound weakly [28] - Jujubes: With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions, they may range - bound weakly [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short term, prices may range - bound due to supply - demand games. In the long term, be cautious about the upside. Range - bound trading and hedging are recommended [30] - Eggs: With high valuation and supply pressure in the medium - long term, hedging of post - holiday contracts is recommended [32] - Corn: With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term loose supply - demand, be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: With short - term support and long - term pressure, short - term range trading and long - term bearishness are recommended [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound. Hold previous long positions and exit previous spread - narrowing strategies [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry is at a cyclical inflection point, and the key lies in rhythm control. A "full - scale bull market" lacks support, and a scenario of tight supply and warm demand is likely. It is recommended to take a long - position - based strategy with flexible rhythm control. [55] - In the short term, be wary of over - extended gains. If demand fails to pick up as expected, high profits may lead to unexpected supply increases. Pay attention to terminal demand, cost transmission, downstream restocking, and upstream production. [55] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Background - **Global Order Reconfiguration**: Geopolitical games reshape the supply curve of commodities, emerging demands form new demand curves, and strategic security needs reshape investment and inventory structures. [5] - **US Situation**: The Fed has started an easing cycle. The US economy shows a mixed picture, with AI and electrification driving capital expenditure while traditional manufacturing is under pressure. [9] - **China's Focus**: In 2026, service consumption will support domestic demand. Monetary policy will be moderately loose, fiscal policy will be actively implemented, real - estate policies will promote new development models, and supply - side reforms will deepen. [16] - **Commodity Rotation and Recent Performance**: The energy structure is in transition, with the proportion of non - water renewable energy increasing. [22] 2. Chemical Views - **Demand Characteristics**: Demand in traditional sectors has a large proportion, and significant growth depends on overall economic recovery. [30] - **Trend Review**: The chemical industry has experienced a four - year decline. In 2025, the energy - chemical sector performed the weakest among commodities, but recently it has rebounded rapidly with internal differentiation. [33][34] - **Medium - to - Long - Term Outlook**: In 2026, demand support will strengthen, supply will be optimized, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, showing signs of bottoming out. [46] - **2026 Capacity Growth**: The growth rate of chemical production capacity will slow down in 2026. [47] - **Short - Term Disturbances**: Extreme weather, geopolitical factors, and capital outflows from the stock and non - ferrous markets are short - term disturbances. [50] - **Characteristics of the Current Uptrend**: The chemical sector is strengthening with structural differentiation, which is essentially a structural valuation repair due to supply - side improvements. Different sub - sectors have different driving factors. [53] - **Future Outlook and Suggestions**: A "full - scale bull market" is unlikely. It is recommended to take a long - position - based strategy with flexible rhythm control. Pay attention to cost support, terminal demand, and policy implementation. [55] - **Later Concerns**: Focus on the price trends of oil, gas, and coal, the impact of "anti - involution" policies, and the influence of geopolitical and trade policies on imports and exports. [59][62] - **Variety Views** - **Coal Chemical Industry**: For methanol, supply is uncertain, and price is restricted by import and MTO profit. For urea, the fundamentals are weak, and the price fluctuates between production cost and export policy limits. [65] - **Chlor - Alkali Chemical Industry**: For caustic soda, high supply and weak demand lead to low - valuation and weak - expectation. For PVC, there is no new capacity in 2026, but the fundamental pressure is still large. [67][68] - **Polyester Series**: For PX/PTA, the supply - demand situation improves, and the processing fee may expand. For MEG, short - term supply is expected to decrease, but inventory pressure is significant. [70] - **Benzene Series**: For pure benzene, the negative impact weakens, but high inventory is still a pressure. For styrene, there is a capacity gap, and exports are an important growth point. [72] - **Olefins**: For propylene, polypropylene, and polyethylene, short - term rebound is driven by external factors, and the production pressure is still large in 2026. For synthetic rubber (butadiene), the supply - demand situation is favorable, and a long - term long - position strategy is recommended. [74] 3. Industrial Data The report provides a large amount of data on the spot - futures prices, spreads, profits, supply, demand, and inventory of various chemical products, including MA, UR, SH, PVC, BU, PX, TA, EG, BZ, EB, PE, PP, RU, and BR. [78][108][127]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is rising at a high level, with overseas geopolitical risks rapidly increasing. The macro - environment has both supporting and restrictive factors for non - ferrous metals prices. Different metals have different trends and influencing factors, with some showing high - level shocks, some adjusting, and some continuing to rise [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summaries Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level shock in the range of 98,500 - 105,000 [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Supported by strong macro - factors such as China's GDP growth in 2025, loose monetary policy in 2026, and a 40% increase in power grid investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan", as well as overseas geopolitical risks, a weak US dollar, and strong precious metals. However, the fundamentals are weak, with falling ore processing fees, increasing smelting losses, and low consumption due to the off - season and high copper prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons, and spot transactions are light. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level with limited upside potential. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to inventory changes and policy implementation progress [2]. Aluminum - **Trend Status**: High - level adjustment [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has also risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. New production capacity is being put into operation. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate has increased slightly, but overall demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum ingot inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation speed has slowed down. Aluminum prices are affected by capital sentiment and are expected to remain in high - level shock in the short term [2]. Zinc - **Trend Status**: Stabilize and rebound, high - level shock [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are at a low level, and production may shrink in January due to some smelter maintenance. Consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc ingots is low. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China is 119,000 tons, remaining basically unchanged from last week. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain high - level shock [2]. Lead - **Trend Status**: Range shock between 16,800 - 17,200 [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: LME and COMEX lead inventories have increased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventories have decreased. Lead prices have fallen, and downstream transactions have weakened, putting pressure on futures prices. In the long term, lead prices may show a shock - consolidation trend, and it is recommended to operate within the range [2]. Nickel - **Trend Status**: High - level shock [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Affected by news from Indonesia, nickel prices are strong, but the spot inventory is accumulating, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the upward momentum of nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both nickel and stainless steel [3]. Tin - **Trend Status**: Return to an upward trend [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Supply remains tight, and prices are strongly fluctuating. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and downstream demand is in rigid need. Overseas raw material supply disturbances need to be noted. It is expected that tin prices will continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: Wide - range shock [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Production and inventory of industrial silicon have changed. The production of polysilicon has decreased, and the photovoltaic industry has mixed trends. If a large - scale industrial silicon producer in Xinjiang cuts production by half, it will drive up industrial silicon prices. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at the current position [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Trend Status**: Return to an upward trend [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Affected by mining permit disturbances in Yichun, supply - side risks exist. Downstream demand for exports is strong, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected that prices will continue to show a strong shock [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data China - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the LPR remained unchanged in January 2026 [13][15][16][18]. USA - The average weekly new employment in the US ADP was 8,000, lower than the previous value of 11,750. The PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the real GDP quarterly growth rate in the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years [19][21][22]. 3.3 Next Week's Macroeconomic Data Calendar - A series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released next week, including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, consumer confidence indexes, and inflation - related data [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 360 tons to 24,150 tons last week, and the production in December increased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and there are risks of mine license review in Yichun and Qinghai. The cost reduction space of Australian mines is limited. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, and the import of lithium carbonate was 23,989 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9%. Some manufacturers using imported lithium ore for production face cost inversion [5]. - The demand side indicates that the overall production schedule in January increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell factories in November increased by 2% month - on - month. In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The total export was 32.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The sales volume was 199.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.1% and a year - on - year increase of 57.5%. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [6]. - In terms of inventory, this week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a slight de - stocking state. The factory inventory increased by 245 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1,467 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 698 tons [6]. - The strategy suggests that considering the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, and there are risks in Yichun's mine licenses. The production and import of lithium carbonate increased in December. The strong downstream demand for export and the de - stocking trend continue, and it is expected that the import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. On the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage remains good, and the production schedule in January increased month - on - month. Due to the continuous risks in Yichun's mine licenses, the production of lithium extraction from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, and the cost center moves up. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, the downstream production schedule increases driven by battery exports, and the inventory continues to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end. Driven by the demand for export and the strong downstream replenishment demand, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views Supply - side Situation - The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 360 tons to 24,150 tons, and the December production increased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices of mine right transfer review. Australian mines have limited cost - reduction space. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate was 789,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 8.1%), and the import of lithium carbonate was 23,989 tons (a month - on - month increase of 9%) [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using imported lithium ore. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side Situation - The overall production schedule in January increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell factories in November increased by 2% month - on - month. In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh (a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%), the total export was 32.6 GWh (a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales), and the sales volume was 199.3 GWh (a month - on - month increase of 11.1% and a year - on - year increase of 57.5%). Policies are expected to support the new energy vehicle market [6]. Inventory Situation - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a slight de - stocking state. The factory inventory increased by 245 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1,467 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 698 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - Considering the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, and there are risks in Yichun's mine licenses. The production and import of lithium carbonate increased in December. The strong downstream demand for export and the de - stocking trend continue, and it is expected that the import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. On the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage remains good, and the production schedule in January increased month - on - month. Due to the continuous risks in Yichun's mine licenses, the production of lithium extraction from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, and the cost center moves up. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, the downstream production schedule increases driven by battery exports, and the inventory continues to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end. Driven by the demand for export and the strong downstream replenishment demand, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [7]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Multiple data charts are provided, including the spot含税均价 of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial - grade), monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of ternary materials, average production cost of lithium carbonate, import volume of lithium spodumene, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary materials 8 - series: NCA type [9][10][18]. - In December 2024, the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials accounted for 18.56% from salt lakes, 24.05% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of polyolefins has been briefly repaired, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with support at 6,600, and the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 6,500 [8]. - The supply - demand contradiction of plastics still exists, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The trend pressure of PP is relatively large, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Review - On January 23, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.54%. The average price of LDPE was 9,033.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%. The average price of HDPE was 7,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,987.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The South China basis of LLDPE was 122.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58.33%. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton (+6) [8][11]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 23, 2026 was 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton compared to January 16; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202 yuan/ton [15]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, in North China, the mainstream price of HDPE film increased by 53 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of low - melt injection molding increased by 50 yuan/ton [17]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $61.28 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 per barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $65.39 per barrel, an increase of $1.19 per barrel compared to the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [20][68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 530 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 244 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [25]. - **Supply**: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 84.67%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 698,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.34%. The weekly maintenance loss was 89,500 tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons compared to the previous week [31]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have new production capacity plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 5.5 million tons [34]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' devices are in the maintenance state, and the restart time of some devices is uncertain [35]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film was 36.32%, a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous week; the start - up rate of PE packaging film was 44.96%, a decrease of 3.19% compared to the previous week; the start - up rate of PE pipes was 29.00%, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the previous week [37]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34.7%, with a difference of 1.9% from the annual average level. The difference between the linear metallocene and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 5.1%, with a difference of 1.6% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 477,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% [43]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 10,474 lots, a decrease of 153 lots compared to the previous week [47]. Polypropylene (PP) Market Review - On January 23, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6,656 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.46% [51]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP - related products and other downstream products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of PP granules (T30S) remained unchanged, and the price of PP powder (225) increased by 100 yuan/ton [53][56]. - **Basis**: On January 23, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6,580 yuan/ton (+0.05%). The PP basis was - 76 yuan/ton (- 157), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 11 yuan/ton (+250) [58]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 23, 2026 was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to January 16; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 256 yuan/ton [66]. - **Cost**: The same as the cost data of plastics, last week, WTI crude oil closed at $61.28 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 per barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $65.39 per barrel, an increase of $1.19 per barrel compared to the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 465.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 154.20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 340.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 77.58 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.02%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 784,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 55,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65% [79]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are in the maintenance state, and the restart time of some devices is uncertain [82]. - **Demand**: This week, the average start - up rate of PP downstream was 52.87% (0.34%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.04% (- 0.56%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 64.02% (+0.46%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 60.20% (2.27%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 37.33% (- 0.84%) [84]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 386.92 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 135.39 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 34.09 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.54 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [90]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 432,900 tons (0.44%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 8.70% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 6.14% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 7.51% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 930.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%, and the raw material inventory of BOPP was 12.50 days, a month - on - month increase of 4.60% [92][95]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17,250 lots, a decrease of 258 lots compared to the previous week [99].