Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For stock indices, due to positive statements from the China-US talks and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, they are expected to fluctuate with a stronger bias in the short - term and be positive in the medium - to - long - term. For bonds, positive China - US negotiation results and the central bank's positive stance may put pressure on the bond market [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: Most stocks rose, with over 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rising. The total market turnover was 1.99 trillion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 330 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Storage chips, commercial aerospace, computing hardware, and consumer electronics sectors led the gains, while coal, gas, real estate, and liquor sectors declined [10]. - **Core View**: Positive results from the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the Ministry of Commerce's plan to introduce more detailed measures, and lower - than - expected US CPI in September boosting rate - cut expectations contribute to the expected stronger - biased fluctuation of stock indices [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate with a stronger bias [10]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Expect a stronger - biased fluctuation, and pay attention to the resistance level at 4000 points [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bonds declined by 0.25%, 0.06%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [12]. - **Core View**: Positive China - US negotiation results and the central bank's positive attitude may put pressure on treasury bonds. Pay attention to important financial policies to be released at the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may be adjusted [12]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Expect a pressured operation [12]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. The improvement in supply and demand and the active replenishment of raw material inventories supported the rebound, while the supplier delivery time and employment index slightly dragged down the PMI. The simultaneous improvement in domestic and foreign demand in September may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking orders, and more active downstream raw material procurement after upstream price increases [19]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year - on - year change of the consumer price index was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month change was + 0.1%. The year - on - year change of the producer price index for industrial products was - 2.3%, and the month - on - month change was flat. The CPI was still negative year - on - year, but the year - on - year increase of the core CPI expanded. Gold jewelry and services were the main supports for the CPI year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline of the PPI narrowed [22]. 3.2.3 Imports and Exports - In September 2025, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The sharp rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors, and the two - year average growth rate continued to decline [23][24]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%, and in August, it quickly rebounded to 20.4%. The recovery of profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. In terms of revenue, the year - on - year growth rate of the upstream manufacturing industry rebounded, while that of the mid - and downstream industries declined. At the end of August, the nominal and real year - on - year growth rates of industrial enterprise finished - product inventories declined, and the inventory turnover days remained the same while the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly [28][31][34]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, especially in the downstream. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.2%, and that of the service production index dropped to 5.6%. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation in the mid - level industry data of the production side [37]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to - 6.3%, and that of private investment dropped to - 7.1%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment all declined [40]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.4%, and that of above - quota retail sales dropped to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The three national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% to the growth of social retail sales [43]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped to 8.7%, and after excluding government bonds, it remained at 5.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of social - financing - caliber credit dropped to 6.4%. The year - on - year increase in social financing was less, mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year - on - year growth of household medium - and long - term loans turned positive, but that of enterprise medium - and long - term loans was still less. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and non - bank deposits turned negative year - on - year [46].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Bullish Macro Sentiment, Persistent Support from the Mine End [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market is supported by a weakening US dollar due to lower - than - expected CPI data, the start of the fifth round of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the optimistic expectations brought by the 15th Five - Year Plan. On the fundamental side, supply - side disruptions continue, and the long - term demand outlook for copper remains positive due to computing power construction. However, high copper prices are suppressing downstream demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore persists, with the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate at a historical low. As of October 24, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.68%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - $42.5/ton. Domestic electrolytic copper output decreased in September, and it is expected to decline further in October [5]. - **Demand**: The market is transitioning to the off - season, and high copper prices are suppressing demand. As of October 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 percentage points. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [5]. - **Inventory**: The accumulation of domestic copper inventory has slowed down. As of October 24, the SHFE copper inventory was 10.48 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.94%. As of October 23, the domestic social copper inventory was 181,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The LME copper inventory decreased, while the COMEX copper inventory increased [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the bullish macro sentiment, the long - term tight supply of copper concentrates, and the suppression of downstream demand by high copper prices, copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [7]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. China's September social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year. The US September core CPI had the slowest growth rate in three months, strengthening the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year. The US October Markit PMI reached the second - highest level this year [15]. - **Industry News**: China's September scrap copper imports increased by 14.84% year - on - year. The copper production of major mining companies such as BHP, MMG, and Vale increased in Q3 2025. Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved [17]. 3. Futures, Spot Market, and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: High copper prices weakened downstream purchasing sentiment, and the spot premium of SHFE copper decreased. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a slight discount, and the New York - London copper price difference fluctuated. The refined - scrap copper price difference first narrowed and then widened [24]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 24, the SHFE copper futures open interest increased by 27.88% week - on - week, while the average daily trading volume decreased by 21.52% week - on - week. As of October 17, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 20.10% week - on - week [26]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore persists, and the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate remains at a historical low. Domestic electrolytic copper output decreased in September and is expected to decline further [35]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of October 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [40]. - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 24, the SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic copper was stable, and the negative value of the spot import profit and loss of copper widened slightly. In September, China's refined copper imports increased by 2.91% year - on - year, scrap copper imports increased by 14.84% year - on - year, and unforged copper and copper products imports increased by 1% year - on - year [42]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the SHFE copper inventory decreased, the domestic social copper inventory accumulation slowed down, the LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade expectation between China and the US has improved, leading to increased volatility in the futures prices of oils and fats, and cost - driven upward movement in soybean meal prices [2][5]. - For soybean meal, the price of the M2601 contract is expected to rise slightly, but the short - term strengthening range is limited. For oils and fats, the market is expected to be more volatile in the short term, and a bullish outlook is recommended in the long term [7][85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of October 25, the East China spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis price decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal futures price followed the upward trend of US soybeans, while the spot price was restricted by inventory pressure [7][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed. There is an expectation of a decrease in US soybean yield. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing faster than last year. The domestic supply was abundant in October, with arrivals of about 8.5 million tons, but is expected to decrease to less than 8 million tons in November [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost is calculated to be 3080 yuan/ton [7]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - The price of the US soybean 01 contract is expected to fluctuate around 1020 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise in November. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 3000 for M2601 long positions, gradually take profits at high prices, and lightly build long positions for M2605 and M2901 at low prices [7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of October 24, the main 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The spot prices of corresponding oils also decreased, and the basis prices showed different trends [85][87]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased, while the export growth slowed down, leading to inventory accumulation. However, the Southeast Asian palm oil production will enter the reduction season in November. In Indonesia, the implementation of B50 in the second half of 2026 is planned, which is bullish for palm oil prices [85]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The price of US soybeans was strong due to the Sino - US talks, but there are still uncertainties in Sino - US relations. The domestic soybean oil inventory is high in the short term, and the supply gap after November is expected to be narrowed [85]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The relationship between China and Canada has slightly improved, but the supply gap of rapeseed oil in China before November is difficult to solve, and the supply is still expected to be tight after November [85]. 3.2.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - After the Sino - US talks on October 26, the market sentiment improved, but there are still uncertainties at the APEC meeting at the end of October. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 8050 - 8150, 8900 - 9000, and 9650 - 9500 for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts, and adopt a long - at - low strategy [85].

1. Report Title and Date - Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Date: October 27, 2025 [3] 2. Core Viewpoints Supply - side - Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 405 tons week - on - week to 23,170 tons, and September production increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons [5]. - Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply [5]. - In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, with extremely limited further cost - reduction space, and most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 [5]. - In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month, and from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons [5]. - In September, carbonate lithium imports were 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and in September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month [6]. - In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month and 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. Inventory - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking trend, with a 1,040 - ton decrease in factory inventory and a 1,987 - ton decrease in futures inventory [6]. Strategy Suggestion - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and it is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply [6]. - The terminal demand for energy storage continues to be strong. In September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month, and in October, the cathode production schedule is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month [6]. - With profit recovery, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and warehouse receipts are continuously cancelled. It is expected that the short - term carbonate lithium price will be supported [6]. - As the verification and submission of reserve reports by Yichun mining enterprises are still undetermined and the downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. During the peak season, downstream enterprises actively purchase carbonate lithium, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate strongly. Prudent trading is recommended, and continuous attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production and inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate, average production cost of carbonate lithium, production and related data of power batteries, production proportion of carbonate lithium from different raw materials, production of cathode materials (such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), average price of lithium iron phosphate, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, and market price of ternary materials [9][10][12][14][19][21][24][25][27][29][33][35][39][41][43][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. The closing price of the 01 contract on October 24 was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton. With multiple methanol plants under maintenance and reduced supply in some areas, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry declined, and the traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the price rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. On October 24, the closing price of the 01 contract was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton [3][4]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 194.35 million tons. The expected arrival volume at ports was 6.7 million tons. Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas [3][10]. Cost - The domestic thermal coal market price continued to rise, increasing by 26 yuan/ton to 619 yuan/ton, leading to a continuous increase in the cost of coal-based methanol [3][13]. Demand - The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points from last week. Some olefin plants in coastal areas reduced their production loads, and the operating rate declined slightly. The demand for externally purchased methanol is expected to weaken next week when a methanol project supporting an olefin plant in Inner Mongolia resumes operation. Additionally, a 200,000 - ton ethylene project in Henan is about to shut down, indicating weak demand from the main downstream industries. The traditional downstream demand for methanol remained weak, with low operating loads at traditional downstream factories and cautious replenishment based on rigid demand [3][17]. Inventory - The inventory of sampled methanol enterprises was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons from last week. The port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 2.08 million tons from last week. The inventory of enterprises and ports showed a divergence, with a decline in the inland operating rate and a recovery in arrival volume, narrowing the price difference between the inland and ports [3][23]. Main Operating Logic - Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas. The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry declined slightly, and the main demand in some areas weakened. The traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices drove up the methanol price, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Key Points of Attention - Changes in the macro - economic situation, methanol plant maintenance, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the improvement of macro - sentiment and marginal positive factors in supply and demand, urea prices rebounded from the low level. The short - term price center of urea moved up, and the reference range of the 01 contract was 1600 - 1700. The increase in urea maintenance devices led to a decline in daily output. Agricultural fertilizer demand gradually expanded, the increase in the start - up of compound fertilizers boosted the demand for urea, and the obvious destocking of port inventory alleviated the overall supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - Price: On October 24, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1642 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 1.05%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1565 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 1.56% [3][6]. - Basis: The main basis of urea weakened. On October 24, the main basis in the Henan market was - 77 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operating range was (- 93) - (- 65) yuan/ton [3][9]. - Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 24, the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was (- 77) - (- 70) yuan/ton [3][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 78.56%, down 1.67 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 67.76%, down 3.57 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily urea output was 18.26 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices in Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places are expected to resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply is still relatively sufficient [3][11]. Cost - The anthracite lump coal market was mainly stable, and the anthracite slack coal was slightly stronger. As of October 23, the tax - included price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as the previous week [3][15]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 7.39%, and that of gas - based urea was - 15.11%. Affected by the rising urea price, the urea gross profit margin rebounded slightly [15]. Demand - The average advance collection of major urea production enterprises was 3.9 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 95.8%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand increased moderately, and off - season storage enterprises made appropriate purchases at low prices, resulting in a marginal improvement in urea production and sales [19]. Industrial Demand - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 27.71%, up 3.53 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.44 tons, down 0.47 tons from the previous week. The inventory pressure of domestic compound fertilizers was slightly relieved, and the destocking trend began [23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 47.44%, down 2.24 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 2.338 tons. With the resumption of production of shutdown and maintenance devices, it is expected that the average operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will gradually increase to about 60% next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market was enhanced [27]. Inventory - The inventory of urea enterprises was 143.3 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons from the previous week, with a narrowing increase. The urea port inventory was 37 tons, a decrease of 37 tons from the previous week. There were 5407 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 10.8140 tons, a decrease of 887 from the previous week. October is the centralized cancellation period for urea warehouse receipts [30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the zinc concentrate processing fee has been rising due to the increase in zinc concentrate supply at home and abroad. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has declined after rising, showing a divergence from the import fee. In the fourth quarter, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee may continue to fall, while the import fee may be raised. The refined zinc output is expected to remain high, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee and Zinc Price (1) Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - The zinc concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) is the fee paid by mineral producers or traders to smelters for processing zinc concentrate into refined zinc. Overseas and domestic markets have different ways of determining the processing fee. The rise and fall of the processing fee are affected by factors such as zinc ore production supply, smelting demand, the ratio of Shanghai and London zinc prices, and the profits of mines and smelters [5][6]. (2) The Relationship between Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee and Zinc Price - In the long - term, there is a significant negative relationship between the zinc concentrate processing fee and the zinc price. The change in the processing fee can have an important impact on the zinc price trend [7][10]. II. Analysis of the Trend of Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee (1) Significant Increase in Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - In 2025, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have increased significantly. The reasons are the supply of zinc concentrate turning from tight to relatively loose due to the resumption of production and new capacity release of mines at home and abroad, and the sufficient raw material inventory and strong price - holding sentiment of domestic smelters [11][13][16]. (2) Divergence between Domestic and Imported Zinc Ore Processing Fees - Since the second half of the year, the domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have shown a significant divergence. The import fee has continued to rise, while the domestic fee has fallen after reaching a high. The reasons are the import loss of zinc concentrate, the preference for domestic zinc ore by smelters, and the expected decrease in domestic zinc ore production in the fourth quarter [18][21]. (3) Outlook on the Trend of Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee in the Fourth Quarter - In the fourth quarter, the supply of zinc concentrate is expected to remain loose, but the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee may continue to fall due to the reduction of supply from northern mines and the winter storage demand of smelters. The import processing fee may be under pressure to adjust [22]. III. Outlook on the Zinc Price Trend in the Fourth Quarter - Currently, the domestic and overseas zinc markets are divided. Domestic refined zinc output is high, and the inventory is increasing, resulting in a weak domestic zinc price. In the fourth quarter, the refined zinc output is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [23][24][26].

长江期货鲜果周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-10-24 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 震荡偏强 目 录 01 苹果：震荡偏强 02 红枣：震荡偏强 01 苹果：震荡偏强 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：本周新季晚富士上货量继续增加，下树进度及入库量较去年同期有所推迟。西部晚富士交易陆续进入中后 期，客商对好货收购积极，一般货源收购相对谨慎，目前西部入库工作陆续开展。山东产区上货量仍显有限，小单车 要货增加，客商收购好货难以足量，入库工作零星开始。销区交易氛围仍显清淡，周内走货不快，需求端承压。新果 上市，价格明显高于去年，价格有望维持强势。（数据来源：上海钢联） 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观政策因素 02 行情回顾 Ø 本周苹果主力震荡调整运行。 Ø 苹果基差23元，较上周+92。 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 03 苹果批发市场价格走势 04 苹果主产区情况 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 Ø 山东产区：目前市场晚富士成交价格来看，85#一二级价 ...

Report Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the polyolefin market deviated from expectations due to intensified supply - demand imbalance, with prices being low. The market is showing bottom characteristics, but upward pressure is significant. Polyethylene is expected to be stronger than polypropylene, and the LP main contract spread will widen, yet the overall pattern remains weakly oscillating [1][44]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Market Analysis - **Main Contract Trends**: In previous "Golden September and Silver October" periods, polyolefins had a high probability of a bull market. However, in 2025, prices declined instead. By mid - to late October, the LLDPE main contract fell below 6,900 yuan/ton, down over 10% from the beginning of the year, and the PP main contract once reached a low of 6,500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Price Trends**: Polyethylene spot prices were structurally differentiated, with LLDPE having the largest annual decline of up to 30.50%. Polypropylene spot prices were also weak, with a maximum decline of over 10% [8]. - **Main Contract Basis Trends**: In 2025, the polyethylene main contract basis showed an inverted N - shaped downward trend, with an annual range of (0, 1200) yuan/ton. The PP basis was relatively stable, with a range of (0, 600) yuan/ton [11]. - **Contract Month - spread Trends**: As of October 17, the polyethylene 1 - 5 contract month - spread was - 33 yuan/ton, stronger than last month but weaker than last year. The polypropylene 1 - 5 contract month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, weaker than both last month and last year [16]. - **Main Contract Spread Trends**: Since 2025, the LP main contract spread has oscillated between (0, 650) yuan/ton. As of October 17, it was 323 yuan/ton, up from last month but down from last year [19]. 2. Analysis of the Reasons for the Weak Market - **Weak Downstream Demand**: Despite the peak season, the overall downstream polyolefin operating rate only slightly rebounded and was lower than in previous years. The demand - boosting effect of domestic stimulus policies was diminishing, and downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy with weak restocking motivation [20]. - **High Supply Pressure**: In 2025, the polyolefin industry was in a capacity expansion cycle. From January to September, 3.93 million tons of polyethylene and 3.66 million tons of polypropylene were put into production, with more planned for the fourth quarter. Although there were many device overhauls in the second and third quarters, the marginal effect decreased, and supply pressure increased [32]. - **Weak Cost Support**: In the third quarter of 2025, crude oil prices weakened. OPEC+ continued to increase production in October, and the fourth - quarter demand was expected to decline, causing the oil price to drop. Other raw material prices also fell, weakening cost support for polyolefins [37]. - **High Inventory Pressure**: As of October 17, polyethylene and polypropylene inventories were at relatively high levels. The inventory digestion was slow, and with the end of "Golden September and Silver October", demand growth was limited, while supply pressure remained, hindering the de - stocking process [40]. 3. Outlook for the Future - **Price Bottoming with Support**: After continuous price declines, the polyolefin market is showing bottom characteristics. International crude oil prices are at a relatively low level, and production profits are severely squeezed, forcing enterprises to adjust production loads. Also, the market has priced in current negative factors, reducing the downward momentum [45]. - **Weakly Oscillating Market with Upward Pressure**: The polyolefin market is in a key stage of supply - demand re - balance. Due to high supply pressure and weak demand, it will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract between 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [46]. - **Differentiated Internal Trends**: Polyethylene is expected to be stronger than polypropylene in the fourth quarter due to less new - capacity pressure and better inventory conditions. The LP main contract spread will widen, presenting arbitrage opportunities [47].