Core Conclusions - The report highlights a significant market event where the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 1.38% on the first trading day of 2026, breaking the 4000-point threshold, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased trading volume across A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Signals - Signal One: Transition from "Volume Hesitation" to "Volume Initiation" suggests that the substantial increase in trading volume at the start of the year alleviates concerns about previous low-volume gains. The report anticipates a "re-inflation bull market" driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the RMB, leading to a significant increase in A-share trading volume, with expected lows of 500 billion and 1 trillion in total A-share turnover in September 2024 and June 2025 respectively, confirming the initiation of a major upward trend [1][6] - Signal Two: The report notes a structural thematic and growth market emerging, referred to as the "spring excitement" market, with various themes gaining traction such as brain-machine interfaces, robotics, and commercial aerospace. However, it cautions that sustained high trading volumes may not be realistic, and a potential reduction in volume could lead to a narrowing of thematic trading focus [2] - Signal Three: The insurance sector is identified as a new leader in the bull market, with its recent volume increase confirming the market's upward trend. Historically, insurance has been a key driver in market rallies, and the report suggests a shift from intermediary institutions to asset management institutions as the market transitions from a volatile to a more stable investment environment [3][12] Group 2: Industry Allocation - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the insurance sector and a "new high" combination for industry allocation. It suggests that 2025 may be a prelude to a bull market, with 2026 expected to witness the main trend. Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, new consumption (food and beverage/travel), and high-end manufacturing (power equipment/chemicals/healthcare) [4][14]

Group 1: Computer Industry Insights - DeepSeek has released the mHC framework, which indicates the evolution direction for next-generation infrastructure, enhancing large model training stability, speed, and cost-effectiveness [3][4] - The mHC architecture introduces manifold constraints, utilizing the Sinkhorn-Knopp algorithm to project residual mapping matrices onto Birkhoff polytope, demonstrating superior performance and scalability in large-scale training [3][4] - The mHC framework is expected to inspire new research paths and improve the balance between plasticity and stability in model training, potentially leading to innovative methods in architecture design [4] Group 2: AI Chip Design Paradigm - The mHC framework proposes a new paradigm for AI chip design by addressing the mismatch between computing power and bandwidth, advocating for a shift from "computing power-first" to "efficiency-first" in chip design [5] - mHC's optimization techniques, such as kernel fusion and selective recomputation, significantly reduce bandwidth requirements by consolidating multiple memory accesses into a single access [5] - The introduction of specialized projection operator acceleration units in chip design could disrupt the current dominance of general-purpose computing units in AI chips, promoting a heterogeneous architecture [5] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector remains promising, with China's manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeding expectations, indicating an overall economic recovery [9] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27, 2025, were lower than expected, suggesting a strengthening labor market [10] - Geopolitical tensions have escalated following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, which may impact the non-ferrous metals market due to increased security risks [11] Group 4: North Exchange Market Insights - The North Exchange market is expected to see a spring rally, supported by high-quality expansion and liquidity improvements, despite short-term profit-taking pressures [14][16] - Recent policy initiatives, including the digital transformation plan for the automotive industry, are anticipated to provide opportunities for high-end manufacturing enterprises in the North Exchange [16] - The North Exchange's valuation remains attractive compared to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, suggesting a favorable investment environment for institutional investors [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the North Exchange, suggesting a "overweight" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Insights - The North Exchange market is experiencing a short-term consolidation, but the expectation of favorable policies continues to strengthen. Key policies in sectors such as automotive digital transformation and commercial aerospace are anticipated to provide opportunities for high-end manufacturing companies listed on the North Exchange [3][25]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a leading driver of structural opportunities, with companies focusing on new productivity areas such as AI, commercial aerospace, and robotics showing significant growth potential [26]. - The North Exchange's valuation remains lower than that of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, presenting a favorable cost-performance ratio for investors [27]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of all A-shares on the North Exchange reached 19.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8% week-on-week. The North Exchange 50 index fell by 1.55%, with an average turnover rate of 2.7% [7][15]. - The top five gainers for the week included Hengdongguang (878.2%), Tianming Technology (65.8%), and Lifan Holdings (29.9%), while the top five losers included *ST Guandao (-61.3%) and Hongyu Packaging (-32.0%) [15][17]. Key News and Policies - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need to enhance the effectiveness and precision of fiscal macro-control to support domestic demand expansion [2][22]. - The automotive industry is set for a digital transformation, with a goal to improve the maturity level of intelligent manufacturing capabilities by 2027 [20]. Core Driving Factors - The report identifies a strong expectation of policy dividends and the potential for incremental capital inflow into the market, particularly with the introduction of the North Exchange 50 ETF and other key policies [25]. - The technology sector is expected to lead the market, with companies like Tianli Composite and Tianming Technology showing significant stock price increases due to their focus on advanced technologies [26]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Institutional investors are advised to adopt a "steady layout, dual-line advancement" strategy, focusing on policy-driven technology growth sectors and selecting companies with high R&D investment and strong technological barriers [28]. - The report highlights the value of new share offerings, noting an average first-day increase of 368% for new stocks in 2025, with an expected increase in supply in 2026 [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, highlighting potential investment opportunities amidst geopolitical tensions and inventory dynamics [1][4]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, indicating a general recovery in economic sentiment [1][14]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell below expectations, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated [2][15]. - Geopolitical tensions escalated with U.S. military actions in Venezuela, raising security risks in the region [3][16]. - China is tightening regulations on copper and alumina production capacity in its new five-year plan, aiming to curb disorderly investments [4][17]. - CME raised margin requirements for precious metals futures twice within two weeks, impacting silver prices while potentially supporting gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [5][18]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal sector slightly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [9]. - Industrial metals showed a notable performance, with copper prices rising and inventory imbalances becoming more pronounced [19][22]. - Precious metals faced downward pressure due to margin increases, but geopolitical tensions may drive gold prices higher [31][36]. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on LME reached $12,460.50 per ton, up 2.70% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices were at ¥98,240.00 per ton, down 0.49% [19][22]. - LME aluminum prices increased to $3,021.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥22,925.00 per ton [19][22]. - Zinc prices on LME were $3,127.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥23,275.00 per ton [20][21]. - Inventory levels for copper on LME decreased by 5.98% to 145,325 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 30.11% to 145,342 tons [23]. Strategic Metal Insights - Cobalt prices rose due to supply constraints, with electrolytic cobalt priced at ¥456,000 per ton [40][41]. - Tungsten prices continued to rise, supported by supply reductions and policy controls, with average prices for tungsten bars at ¥1,180.00 per kg [46][48]. - The report emphasizes the potential for strategic metals and small metals to experience valuation reconstruction opportunities due to ongoing export control measures and market dynamics [57].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][9] Core Insights - DeepSeek has introduced the mHC framework, which enhances the stability, speed, and cost-effectiveness of large model training [2] - The mHC architecture is a significant extension of the Hyper-Connections (HC) paradigm, paving the way for future research and innovations in model training [3] - The mHC framework combines manifold constraints with engineering optimizations, potentially revolutionizing AI chip design by addressing the mismatch between computing power and bandwidth [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mHC framework is expected to provide substantial performance improvements in large-scale model training, demonstrating stability and efficiency [2][3] Technological Advancements - The introduction of manifold constraints in the mHC framework allows for various explorations tailored to specific learning objectives, which may lead to novel methods balancing flexibility and stability [3] - The mHC framework's approach to software adapting to hardware bottlenecks challenges traditional chip design paradigms, promoting a shift towards efficiency [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI chip companies such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Moer Thread, Muxi Co., and Birun Technology as potential investment opportunities [5]

Group 1: Leasing Industry Overview - The leasing industry in China is categorized into financial leasing and commercial financing leasing, with financial leasing companies being regulated by the National Financial Regulatory Administration [6] - The main business models are direct leasing and sale-leaseback, which cater to different financing needs of enterprises [6] - The industry has entered a phase of high-quality development since 2018, with stable growth in financial leasing and domestic commercial leasing, while foreign leasing companies have seen a decline [7] Group 2: Key Players and Market Dynamics - The leasing business is capital-intensive, with net interest income being the primary revenue source, and asset scale reflecting differentiated strategic layouts among companies [8] - Leading companies like Guoyin Financial Leasing and Far East Horizon maintain their positions through diversified industry layouts and national service networks, while others focus on niche markets such as aviation and microfinance [8] Group 3: Weigao Blood Purification Company Analysis - Weigao Blood Purification is a leading player in the domestic blood purification industry, with a comprehensive product matrix including dialysis machines and accessories [11] - The company has shown steady growth, with projected EPS of 1.08, 1.20, and 1.32 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The blood purification market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 21.52% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing ESRD patient numbers and improving healthcare coverage [12] Group 4: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The demand for blood purification products is rising due to a rapid increase in ESRD patients and enhanced medical payment capabilities [12] - Weigao's market share in key products like blood dialysis machines and accessories is strong, with 32.5%, 24.6%, and 31.8% market shares respectively [13] - The company is expanding its business through acquisitions, such as Weigao Purui, to enhance its position in the biopharmaceutical upstream sector [13] Group 5: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December showed a seasonal rebound, indicating synchronized expansion in production and demand, with a PMI of 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [15] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery in the service sector [21] - The construction industry saw a significant rebound, returning to expansion territory due to favorable weather and increased construction activity [21] Group 6: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a declining US dollar index and a recovering Chinese economy, positioning it as a favorable offshore market for capital [24] - The market is anticipated to experience valuation expansion driven by global liquidity and improved fundamentals in China, potentially leading to a "Davis Triple Play" scenario [29] - The outlook for the Hang Seng Technology Index remains positive, with expectations of significant growth in consumer-sensitive sectors like internet and new energy vehicles [29]

Core Conclusions - The report suggests that 2025 may be just the "prelude" to a bull market, with the Federal Reserve likely to restart interest rate cuts, leading to a rapid return of cross-border capital to China, which will help various price indices (PPI + CPI) emerge from "deflation" [1] - The report anticipates that in 2026, China will experience a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by the appreciation of the RMB, which will enhance cash flow statements and balance sheets in the real economy [1] Group 1: China’s Economic Outlook - China entered the current Kondratiev wave downturn in 2019, but the external constraints are gradually being lifted, allowing for a return to prosperity [1] - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 will facilitate the recovery of cash flow statements for enterprises and households in China [1] - The anticipated quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will open up policy space for the People's Bank of China to implement similar measures, further aiding the recovery of balance sheets [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The report highlights that the U.S. is currently in a Kondratiev wave downturn, with the stock market and economy on the brink of crisis due to over-reliance on AI investment narratives [2] - It notes that the U.S. stock market is at a "crisis edge," and the potential for liquidity shocks is high as cross-border capital begins to flow out of the U.S. [2] - The report warns that if AI investment expectations fall short, it could lead to a negative narrative impacting U.S. consumption and economic stability [2] Group 3: Global Liquidity Trends - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to shift towards QE, resulting in an increase in global liquidity [3] - It emphasizes that the primary goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent liquidity shocks in the U.S. market, which will influence global capital flows [3] - The report suggests that the current tight liquidity in the U.S. is pressuring the Federal Reserve to adopt "quasi-QE" measures [6] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, cross-border capital is expected to accelerate its return to China, shifting the A-share market from a tech-focused trend to a cyclical recovery [7] - The report anticipates that the RMB exchange rate will likely break previous highs of 6.8 and 6.3, entering a long-term appreciation cycle [7] - It highlights that the RMB's appreciation will create a positive feedback loop, encouraging further capital inflows into China [7] Group 5: Commodity Supercycle - The report discusses a potential supercycle in commodities driven by de-globalization and a dollar crisis, with supply constraints likely to emerge as resource-rich countries tighten supply [9][10] - It suggests that the demand for commodities will remain resilient due to strategic stockpiling and supply chain improvements in various countries [10] - The report indicates that this supercycle could last for several years, with precious metals leading the way in revaluation [11] Group 6: Sectoral Opportunities - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including non-ferrous metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from the recovery of cash flow and balance sheets [13] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that are likely to achieve new highs, particularly in the context of the anticipated economic recovery [13] - The report suggests that the manufacturing sector will see a systematic recovery in valuations as cash flow statements improve [11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in value exceeding 10% compared to the market benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The large model has entered a post-training and COT expansion phase, with the capabilities of the base model in 2025 likely remaining unchanged, as the GPT-5 series may still utilize the GPT-4o base model. The focus for 2025 will be on enhancing post-training and reasoning capabilities [1]. - Google's Gemini 3 model has achieved significant advancements in cross-modal dialogue, understanding, and content generation, but still faces challenges with logical coherence in complex scenarios and controllability of generated content, highlighting key areas for future technological breakthroughs [1]. - Domestic AI chip manufacturers have reached H-series performance levels, with advancements in interconnect speeds and software ecosystem capabilities. Notably, Alibaba's latest PPU chip has surpassed NVIDIA's A800 in key performance metrics, and Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node aims to optimize computing efficiency [2]. - The capabilities of robotic bodies have improved significantly, while the cognitive abilities of their "brains" lag behind, limiting their application to structured scenarios. The VLA model architecture has been criticized for its limitations in real-time reasoning in complex physical environments [3]. - The business models for AI applications are still under exploration, with domestic companies facing challenges in monetization despite high revenue growth rates, while international firms struggle with high computing costs and low profit margins [3].

Core Conclusions - The global AI computing competition is intensifying, with xAI planning to enhance its training computing power to 2GW, recommending companies like Dongfang Electric and Sifang Co. for AI data center support [1] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted, indicating a thriving commercial aerospace sector, with recommendations for companies like Goldwind Technology and Maiwei [1] - The opening of JD×Yushu's first national store in Beijing marks a significant step in the commercialization of robotics, with recommended companies including UBTECH and Wuzhou New Spring [1] Group 1: Silver Price and HJT Battery - Silver and polysilicon futures have reached new highs, potentially improving the cost-effectiveness of HJT and BC battery technologies [2] - Recommended stocks in the solar storage sector include Aiko and Foster, with a focus on companies like Dongfang Risen and Dike [2] Group 2: New Energy Installation and Pricing Mechanisms - New energy installations continue to rise, supported by improved electricity pricing mechanisms and transmission channels, with projects like the Shandong Dengzhou Station receiving approval [2] - Recommended companies in the power equipment sector include Pinggao Electric and Shunhua Power, with a focus on TBEA [2] Group 3: Electric Vehicle and Consumer Electronics Demand - The introduction of a new subsidy policy for replacing old vehicles is expected to boost demand for electric vehicles and consumer electronics, with subsidies of up to 15% for certain products [3] - Recommended companies in the electric vehicle sector include CATL and EVE Energy, with a focus on companies benefiting from overseas markets [3] Group 4: Offshore Wind Power Development - Two large offshore wind power projects in China have achieved full capacity grid connection, indicating rapid development in the offshore wind industry [3] - Recommended companies in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology and Daikin Heavy Industries [3] Group 5: Energy Storage Capacity Compensation Mechanism - Gansu Province has officially released a compensation mechanism for energy storage capacity, set at 330 RMB/kW·year, which is expected to maintain high industry prosperity [4] - Recommended companies in the energy storage sector include Sungrow Power and EVE Energy [4] Group 6: Market Trends and Price Changes - The overall sales of major domestic new energy vehicle companies increased by 15.13% year-on-year in 2025, with a total delivery of 7.42 million vehicles [9] - Prices for lithium salts and nickel have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 118,500 RMB/ton, up 5.90% week-on-week [21][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - Thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU) exhibits excellent temperature resistance, mechanical properties, ease of processing, and good biocompatibility, making it a versatile thermoplastic polymer with wide downstream applications [2][4] - The domestic TPU consumption has shown a consistent upward trend, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 720,000 tons in 2024 [2] - The largest consumer market for TPU in China is footwear, accounting for nearly 30% of the total consumption in 2024 [2] - Major domestic suppliers include Wanhua Chemical and Meirui New Materials, which have achieved domestic substitution for mid-to-low-end products [2] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - TPU is expected to be widely used in humanoid robots for flexible protective layers due to its excellent flexibility, wear resistance, and processability [2] - Leading robot manufacturers are actively exploring the development of robot skins using TPU materials, with notable collaborations such as the strategic memorandum between Fourier and BASF to explore applications in robotics [2] Investment Recommendations - The humanoid robot sector is seen as a promising area for embodied intelligence, with significant growth potential [2] - Potential suppliers of lightweight materials and components to watch include Moulded Technology, Taili Technology, Meirui New Materials, Anli Co., Huide Technology, Kaizhong Co., Niutai Ge, Mingxin Xuteng, and Yinuowei [2]