Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is gaining momentum with significant technological advancements, such as the successful operation of the "Honghuang 70" superconducting tokamak achieving 120 seconds of steady-state long-pulse plasma operation, marking a milestone for commercial nuclear fusion development [1] - The global controllable nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately $331.5 billion by 2024, indicating a vast market potential [3] - Major economies are strategically prioritizing the future of nuclear fusion, providing support through policies and funding to accelerate the industrialization process [3] Summary by Sections - **Technological Developments**: The "Honghuang 70" device has made significant progress in achieving reliable long-pulse operation, with ongoing improvements in hardware performance and operational capabilities [1] - **Upcoming Events**: The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference will be held in Hefei, China, aimed at promoting collaborative innovation and results transformation within the industry [2] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights several companies to watch, including those involved in low-temperature superconducting magnets, vacuum chambers, and power supply systems, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities within the nuclear fusion sector [3]

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 09 日 核心结论 分析师 【汽车】奇瑞汽车（09973.HK）首次覆盖报告：五大品牌各有亮点，先发 优势助力出海领先 预计 2025-2027 年公司营业收入分别为 3077 亿元、3570 亿元、3944 亿元， 分别同比增长 14%/16%/10%；归母净利润分别为 181 亿元、214 亿元、248 亿元，同比 28%/18%/16%，当前股价对应 PE 估值为 8.7/7.4/6.4 倍。首次 覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【计算机】从 Gemini 电视到豆包上车，巨头不断深化 AI 终端布局 从 Gemini 电视到豆包上车，巨头不断深化 AI 终端布局 【计算机】数字人民币开启 2.0 时代：从 M0 向 M1 升维，生态繁荣可期 数字人民币开启 2.0 时代：从 M0 向 M1 升维，生态繁荣可期 【石油石化】石油石化行业点评：石化行业拐点或已出现，26 年长丝供需 格局改善盈利有望增长 1、全球炼化宏观条件逐步改善，石化行业拐点或已出现。2、25 年长丝链 条景气度上行，预计 26 年供需格局将进一步改善。3、反内卷有望带动行业 盈利增长，对应公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4][8] Core Insights - Google introduced its Gemini AI to Google TV in November 2025, enhancing its functionality with features like natural language content discovery, educational deep learning, and multimedia content integration [1] - The Gemini AI's "Deep Dives" feature allows for interactive thematic overviews with narration, making it suitable for family learning across various subjects [1] - The AI can manage personal content through natural language commands, enabling users to search for specific photos and apply AI-driven enhancements to images [1] - The "voice optimization settings" significantly improve user experience by allowing voice commands to adjust screen brightness and audio without navigating complex menus [1] - The "Doubao" large model is being rapidly integrated into vehicles, with partnerships including major automakers like Mercedes-Benz and BYD, covering a wide price range and vehicle types [2] - Collaborations with automakers focus on enhancing smart cockpit features and AI-driven user interactions, aiming to create a more intuitive human-machine interface [2] Summary by Sections - **Google's Gemini AI Enhancements**: The introduction of Gemini AI to Google TV includes features that enhance user interaction and content management, making the experience more immersive and user-friendly [1] - **Doubao Large Model Integration**: The Doubao model is being adopted by various car manufacturers, enhancing smart driving and user experience through advanced AI capabilities [2] - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommended companies to watch include Dongyangguang, Runze Technology, and others in the automotive intelligence sector, indicating potential growth areas within the industry [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" indicating an expected price increase exceeding 10% compared to the market benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [5][8]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a turning point with improving macro conditions for refining globally. The exit of outdated refining capacity overseas and a significant recovery in refining profits in 2025 are noted, with the US and Singapore cracking spreads reaching $18.72 and $13.17 per barrel, respectively, both up 24% year-on-year [1]. - Domestic policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and shifting consumption taxes are accelerating the exit of outdated capacity, leading to an increase in industry operating rates [1]. - The anticipated depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the RMB could lower crude oil procurement costs for refineries, potentially increasing profits for companies like Dongfang Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec by 15 billion, 19 billion, and 198 billion yuan, respectively, with profit elasticities of 732%, 115%, and 50% [1]. - The refining processing profit is expected to rebound after hitting a low in 2025, with average gross margins for several companies showing a year-on-year increase [1]. Summary by Sections Long Fiber Supply Chain - The long fiber supply chain is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026, with operating rates for PX, PTA, and long fibers at 84%, 76%, and 89%, respectively, showing slight year-on-year changes [2]. - PX price spreads have increased from $203 per ton in Q1 2025 to $267 per ton in Q4 2025, while PTA processing fees have risen significantly from 73 yuan per ton to 362 yuan per ton [2]. - New capacity for PX, PTA, and long fibers is expected to slow down, with projected production increases of 500, 0, and 315 million tons, respectively, leading to a supply-demand improvement in 2026 [2]. Industry Profit Growth - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive profit growth in the industry, particularly for PTA and long fibers, as the supply-demand situation improves [3]. - The PTA and long fiber industries have high concentration rates, with CR8 concentrations at 62.43% and 68.58%, respectively [3]. - Assuming a hypothetical increase in PTA and long fiber gross margins, significant profit growth is projected for several companies, with elasticities indicating substantial potential for profit increases [3]. - Recommended companies to watch include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Sinopec, and Huajin Co., among others [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The digital RMB has transitioned from M0 to M1, marking a significant upgrade in its monetary attributes, management model, infrastructure, and incentive mechanisms [3][10] - China is set to become the first major economy to offer interest on central bank digital currency (CBDC), which is expected to enhance user willingness to adopt digital RMB and expand its usage scenarios [4][19] - The upgrade to digital RMB 2.0 is seen as a paradigm shift, embedding it into the banking system and enhancing its role as a financial infrastructure [15][16] Summary by Sections Digital RMB Transition - The digital RMB has evolved from a payment tool to a financial infrastructure, enabling a more complex ecosystem [10] - The new version allows for interest accrual on digital RMB wallets, similar to demand deposits, which is expected to increase user retention and merchant acceptance [4][16] Strategic Importance - The upgrade has significant strategic implications for national financial security, internationalization of the RMB, regulatory capabilities, and inclusive finance [19] - The digital RMB's integration into the existing banking system is designed to balance central control with market efficiency [17][18] Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a relative performance of 33.95% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [8] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating, indicating expected growth exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% in the next 6-12 months [21]

Group 1: Macro Trends - The report outlines ten macro trends for 2026, indicating that the economy will continue to experience restorative growth, with real estate being a key variable affecting economic performance [6][7][8] - It predicts a moderate recovery in domestic inflation, leading to an acceleration in nominal GDP growth, expected to rise from 4% in 2025 to 5% in 2026 [6][7] - The report anticipates a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, maintaining a budget deficit rate of 4% and supporting domestic demand and technological innovation [6][7] Group 2: Eastroc Beverage (605499.SH) - Eastroc Beverage is expected to benefit from a comprehensive national layout and active overseas expansion, with its main product line showing strong growth potential [11][12] - The energy drink market is projected to reach 62.8 billion yuan by 2025, with Eastroc's 500ml bottled energy drink becoming one of the best-selling products in its category [11][12] - The company plans to enhance its distribution network, aiming for nearly 100% coverage of prefecture-level cities and increasing the number of freezers deployed to 600,000 over the next three to five years [12][13] - Revenue forecasts for Eastroc are 21.2 billion yuan in 2025, 26.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 31.6 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to be 4.6 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan, and 7.1 billion yuan respectively [11][12] Group 3: Jinhua New Materials (920015.BJ) - Jinhua New Materials is positioned as a "small giant" in the fine chemicals sector, with stable growth expected in its silane crosslinking agent business and strong progress in high-margin hydroxylamine aqueous solution [16][17] - The company has successfully developed electronic-grade hydroxylamine aqueous solution, which has been validated by several chip manufacturers, indicating a strong market demand [16][17] - Revenue projections for Jinhua are 1.04 billion yuan in 2025, 1.40 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.84 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to be 200 million yuan, 280 million yuan, and 390 million yuan respectively [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) [6] Core Insights - The energy drink market in China is expected to expand, with Dongpeng maintaining a strong position as a market leader. The market size is projected to reach 62.8 billion yuan by 2025, growing at a rate of 4% [1][39] - Dongpeng is actively pursuing global expansion, with significant potential in overseas markets such as Vietnam, India, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, which are expected to grow at CAGRs of 8% to 53% from 2020 to 2025 [1][39] - The company has established a robust national distribution network, covering nearly 100% of prefecture-level cities in China, with over 4.2 million retail outlets and plans to deploy an additional 600,000 refrigerators in the next three to five years [2][39] - The report highlights the successful launch of the "Brewed Water" product line, which is expected to capture a significant market share in the sports drink segment, with sales projected to reach 33.55 billion yuan by 2027 [3][14] Summary by Sections Energy Drink Market Expansion - The energy drink market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 62.8 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 4% increase [1][39] - Dongpeng's flagship product, the 500ml bottled energy drink, is expected to become one of the best-selling products in the Chinese soft drink market by 2024 [1][39] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market expansion and increasing consumer demand [1][39] Channel Development - Dongpeng has built a large sales team and extensive distribution network, achieving nearly complete coverage of prefecture-level cities in China [2][39] - The company has invested in over 400,000 refrigerators to enhance product visibility and accessibility at retail points [2][39] - Revenue growth in key regions such as North China and Southwest China has been significant, with increases of 73% and 49% respectively [2][39] New Product Development - The "Brewed Water" product line is gaining traction, with sales expected to surpass competitors in the sports drink category [3][14] - The company is focusing on high-value, cost-effective products to capture market share in price-sensitive segments [3][14] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth from new product lines, with projections of 21.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 31.6 billion yuan by 2027 [3][14] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 21.2 billion yuan in 2025, 26.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 31.6 billion yuan in 2027 [3][4] - Net profit is projected to reach 4.56 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 37% [4][3] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 31 times in 2025 to 20 times by 2027, indicating strong growth potential [3][4]

Group 1: Futures Industry Insights - The futures industry is expected to experience significant changes driven by market expansion, policy reforms, and evolving industry dynamics. Key factors include the continuous expansion of trading varieties and increased demand from industrial clients, which will provide long-term growth opportunities for the industry [1][6][7] - The implementation of the "Futures Company Supervision and Management Measures" is anticipated to facilitate new business opportunities such as proprietary trading and margin financing, enhancing the industry's innovation capabilities and improving revenue structures [1][6][7] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration as traditional brokerage commission rates come under pressure, leading to accelerated innovation and deeper cross-border business development [1][6][7] Group 2: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market is expected to witness a significant bull market in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing, which are projected to benefit from improved consumer wealth and export competitiveness [2][10][13] - The insurance sector is emerging as a new leader in the bull market, with its performance confirming the market's upward trajectory. The transition from intermediary institutions to asset management institutions is seen as a natural evolution in the market [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with clear policy catalysts, such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and semiconductors, as well as companies with strong performance certainty in the specialized and innovative sectors [4][23] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Longxin Co., Ltd. is progressing with its Hong Kong listing and global expansion, with expected revenues of 604 million, 904 million, and 1.279 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 181 million, 319 million, and 429 million yuan [3][16][18] - The company is advancing its automotive-grade SerDes and PCIe products, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with ongoing market promotion and successful product certifications [16][18] - The AI chip market is projected to grow significantly, with Longxin's revenue from AI and HPC expected to increase, supported by the development of high-density storage solutions and advanced chip technologies [17][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is making significant progress in the automotive sector with its self-developed ADP protocol-based SerDes chips, having developed 14 automotive-grade chips certified by AEC-Q100 as of September 30, 2025 [1] - The AI chip market is projected to grow from RMB 128.9 billion in 2025 to RMB 273.9 billion in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.7%, and the company is expanding its product offerings in the AI & HPC fields [2] - The company expects revenue growth from RMB 604 million in 2025 to RMB 1.279 billion in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from RMB 181 million to RMB 429 million during the same period [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Automotive Sector - The company has successfully developed automotive-grade chips for various applications, including cockpit and driving domains, and is in the market promotion phase for its SerDes chipsets [1] - The automotive SerDes chipsets have already achieved mass production in new business areas like eBikes, and validation tests with automotive manufacturers are ongoing [1] AI Sector - The company is leveraging its high-bandwidth SerDes technology to develop solutions for AI and HPC, with revenue from this sector reaching RMB 7.48 million in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 1.9% of total revenue [2] - Key products include a PCIe to SATA bridge chip for AI PCs and servers, and ongoing development of PCIe/CXL/USB Retimer and Switch products [2] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - Revenue: RMB 604 million (2025), RMB 904 million (2026), RMB 1.279 billion (2027) - Net Profit: RMB 181 million (2025), RMB 319 million (2026), RMB 429 million (2027) - The company anticipates continued contributions from new products like SerDes and PCIe, with a steady progress in its Hong Kong listing [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the futures industry, consistent with the previous rating [6] Core Insights - The futures industry in China is experiencing deepening development and continuous expansion under regulatory reforms, with a total trading volume reaching 608.84 trillion yuan as of October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.82% [10] - The industry is characterized by a dominant position of commodity futures, which account for 65% of the total trading volume, while financial futures are growing rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 43.7% in trading volume from January to October 2025 [20][23] - Future growth is anticipated due to the expansion of trading varieties, increased demand from industrial clients, and favorable policy developments, including the potential implementation of new business models for futures companies [10][28][35] Industry Overview - The futures market has developed a "5+1" exchange system, with 151 listed futures and options covering key sectors of the national economy as of October 2025 [10][24] - The futures industry is still in its early stages compared to the securities industry, with total assets and net assets at 1.78 trillion yuan and 206.3 billion yuan, respectively, only 14% and 7% of the securities industry's scale [10][45] - The industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with net profits reaching 97.35 billion yuan from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.51% [45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong asset management performance and innovation capabilities, such as Ruida Futures, and recommends paying attention to Nanhua Futures and Yong'an Futures, which are expected to benefit from industry optimization [10]