1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market increased slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 7.92 million lots and an average daily open interest of 11.41 million lots, showing a week-on-week change of +2.59% and +8.99% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][9]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical sector mostly declining and the metal sector mostly rising. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased weekly. For varieties with high implied volatility, investors should be wary of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a higher cost - performance ratio [2][19]. - The PCR of trading volume and open interest of different varieties reflects the market's short - term and long - term expectations of rising or falling prices. For example, the PCR of trading volume of lithium carbonate, apple, and live pigs is at a historical high, while that of aluminum, zinc, and gold is at a one - year low [3][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 7.92 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 11.41 million lots, with week - on - week changes of +2.59% and +8.99% respectively [1][9]. - Actively traded varieties this week included silver (760,000 lots), lithium carbonate (750,000 lots), and glass (640,000 lots) [1][9]. - Three varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, namely Shanghai aluminum (+164%), aluminum alloy (+138%), and pulp (+123%) [1][9]. - The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-96%), apple (-93%), and red dates (-92%) [1][9]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.25 million lots), soda ash (1.01 million lots), and soybean meal (840,000 lots) [1][9]. - The varieties with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest were silver (+76%), tin (+71%), and synthetic rubber (+50%) [1][9]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Changes - The energy - chemical sector mostly declined, and the metal sector mostly rose. The varieties with high weekly increases included silver (+7.54%), copper (+6.12%), and pulp (+4.61%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included alumina (-5.62%), glass (-5.60%), and caustic soda (-5.58%) [2][19]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased weekly. 212 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the one - year historical data. The implied volatility of Shanghai copper and Shanghai aluminum increased by 8.03 and 5.48 percentage points respectively this week [2][19]. - The varieties with implied volatility at a one - year historical high included corn, copper, aluminum, tin, silver, and pulp; those with implied volatility at a one - year historical low included urea, glass, rapeseed meal, natural rubber, PTA, iron ore, and soda ash [2][19]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The PCR of trading volume of lithium carbonate, apple, and live pigs was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of aluminum, zinc, gold, styrene, and LPG was at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase [3][20]. - The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, iron ore, pulp, and silver was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulation of the sentiment of betting on a decline; the PCR of open interest of gold, aluminum, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, and methanol was at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of the sentiment of betting on an increase [3][20]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market shows a significant differentiation pattern. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors are generally strong, while the energy and chemical sectors and the agricultural products sectors are weak. The four major stock index futures show a bullish trend, and the signals in the treasury bond futures market are also differentiated [1][2]. - In operation, it is necessary to treat different types of varieties differently. For strong varieties, avoid chasing high prices and focus on opportunities after corrections. For weak varieties, pay attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Colored and Precious Metals Sector - Gold in the precious metals sector shows a bullish signal, and silver is mainly oscillating. In the non - ferrous metals sector, zinc, lead, stainless steel, etc. show bullish signals, while industrial silicon, alumina, and lithium carbonate show bearish signals [10]. - For Shanghai copper CU2601, the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged, with the key resistance level at 93,800 - 94,700 yuan/ton. There may be a short - term correction, but there is support at around 91,000 yuan/ton. If there is no top divergence and the Bollinger Band remains expanding during the correction, it is expected to continue the upward trend [12]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector - Coking coal and manganese silicon in the black sector show bullish signals, while rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. show bearish signals. European line container shipping shows a bullish signal [20]. - For rebar RB2601, the mid - term upward repair still has momentum, but the MA60 moving average is a resistance level. The daily line shows that there are risk signals, and the upper resistance range is 3,200 - 3,250 yuan/ton [24]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil in the energy sector shows a bullish signal, and LPG shows a bearish signal. In the chemical sector, p - xylene, plastic, etc. show bearish signals [30]. - For methanol 2601, the price mainly oscillates around the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the upward channel is not smooth. Bulls need to pay attention to position management [33]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector - Palm oil and red dates in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, while soybean No.1, soybean meal, etc. show bearish signals [39]. - For sugar SR601, the medium - term price still has downward fluctuation space, and the short - term rebound power is weak. Pay attention to position management [44]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Sector - The four major stock index futures all show bullish signals, among which the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures show strong bullish signals [50]. - For the IC CSI 500 futures, the short - term has a certain upward repair power, but the medium - term price mainly oscillates, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to position management [52]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 5 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures mainly oscillate [57]. - For the T 10 - year treasury bond futures, if the price continues to deviate below the MA250, the downward pressure is large; if it fluctuates between the two moving averages, wait and see; if it stabilizes above the MA120, the downward risk weakens [60][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock index futures market rebounded significantly last week, with the non - ferrous metals sector contributing to the major gains of the SSE 50 and CSI 300, and the machinery and non - ferrous metals sectors contributing to the major gains of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The trading volume of IF, IC, and IM decreased month - on - month, while that of IH increased. The basis of each variety weakened, and it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of inter - period positive arbitrage and adopt the strategy of going long on the near - term contract and shorting the far - term contract. [3][4] - In the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread. The daily - frequency timing strategy signals for bond futures were mostly long last week. [40] - In the commodity market, the overall performance of the commodity market was mixed last week. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors performed well, while the energy metals, caustic soda, alumina, and glass sectors declined the most. The term - structure factors of commodities rose slightly, but their profitability was significantly lower than that of the price - volume trend and value factors. [55] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Quantitative Strategy Stock Index Futures Market Review - The market showed a significant rebound last week. By industry, non - ferrous metals contributed the main gains to the SSE 50 and CSI 300, while machinery and non - ferrous metals contributed the main gains to the CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The trading volume of IF, IC, and IM decreased month - on - month, while that of IH increased. The basis of each variety weakened. [3][4] Stock Index Futures Basis Strategy - The basis of each variety weakened, with IH in contango, IF maintaining a shallow backwardation, and IC and IM maintaining a deep backwardation. The hedging demand in the stock index futures market is still mainly short - side. It is expected that the deep backwardation pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of inter - period positive arbitrage, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and shorting the far - term contract. [4] Stock Index Futures Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In terms of inter - period arbitrage strategies, the net value of each strategy was generally profitable last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factors had a loss of - 0.1%, a profit of 0.1%, and a profit of 0.3% (6 - times leverage) respectively. The annualized basis rate factor mainly gave positive arbitrage signals. [5] - The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value lost last week as the market style shifted towards large - cap stocks. The latest cross - variety signal recommends a 50% position of going long on IF and shorting IC, IM, and keeping IC short - side positions empty. [6] Stock Index Futures Timing Strategy Tracking - Recently, the market has been in a sideways shock with low trading volume, and the overall position of the timing model is bearish. The daily - timing strategy for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 lost last week, while that for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 made a profit, with losses of 0.4% and 0.8% for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 respectively, and profits of 0.3% and 0.8% for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 respectively. The position of the timing model is low, and the latest signal is bearish on the CSI 300, with no signals for other indices. [7] Bond Futures Quantitative Strategy Basis and Inter - period Spread - The IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread. [40] Unilateral Strategy - The bond futures market was in a sideways trend last week. The daily - frequency timing strategy signals were mostly long, with the main long - looking factors including the basis, intraday price - volume, and high - frequency capital flow, and the main short - looking factors including the daily technical indicators and member positions. [41] Interest Rate Timing Signal - The interest rate timing signal predicts an upward movement in interest rates, with a relatively high proportion of long positions in the production factor and inventory factor. [42] Commodity CTA Factor and Tracking Strategy Performance Commodity Factor Performance - The overall performance of the commodity market was mixed last week. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors performed well, with silver, copper, aluminum, and zinc leading the gains, all rising by more than 3%. The energy metals, caustic soda, alumina, and glass sectors declined the most. The term - structure factors of commodities rose slightly, but their profitability was significantly lower than that of the price - volume trend and value factors. It is expected that short - term market fluctuations will continue, but the long - term performance ability of factors remains unchanged. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the near term, but the overall performance of commodity factors is still optimistic in the medium - to - long term. [55] Tracking Strategy Performance - The annualized returns, Sharpe ratios, Calmar ratios, and maximum drawdowns of different tracking strategies are as follows: CW FT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.61, a Calmar of 1.06, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%; C_frontnext & Short Trend strategy has an annualized return of 11.6%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.76, a Calmar of 1.73, and a maximum drawdown of - 6.72%; Long CW FT & Short CW FT strategy has an annualized return of 12.2%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.38, a Calmar of 0.94, and a maximum drawdown of - 13.07%; CS XGBoost strategy has an annualized return of 6.3%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.04, a Calmar of 0.39, and a maximum drawdown of - 15.92%; RuleBased TS Sharp - combine strategy has an annualized return of 12.0%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.56, a Calmar of 1.45, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.26%; RuleBased TS XGB - combine strategy has an annualized return of 12.1%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.10, a Calmar of 2.69, and a maximum drawdown of - 4.49%; CS strategies, EW combine strategy has an annualized return of 12.8%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.82, a Calmar of 1.74, and a maximum drawdown of - 7.38%. [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% since 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and the call for "anti - involution" is growing louder [3][117][118]. - Overseas, trade protectionism in Europe and the United States is severe, posing risks to exports. Attention should be paid to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. Overall, the development space of new energy vehicles in non - US regions is promising [3][116][118]. - In terms of the competitive landscape, the market share of domestic brands continues to expand. Companies with strong product strength, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply should be focused on [3][118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The report shows the one - week price changes of relevant sectors and listed companies. For example, BYD's one - week price increase was 0.85%, SAIC Group's was 3.21%, while CATL's was 4.26%, and Rongbai Technology's dropped by 7.94% [12][14]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Tracking 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: In November, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.354 million, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to November were 11.504 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% [1][104]. - **Inventory Changes**: Data on the monthly new inventory of new energy passenger vehicle channels and manufacturers are presented [25]. - **Delivery Volume of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers**: Monthly delivery volume data of manufacturers such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO are provided [29][30]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: Data on global new energy vehicle sales and penetration rate are presented [38][40]. - **European Market**: In October, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe was 354,000, a year - on - year increase of 36.4%, and the cumulative sales from January to October were 3.205 million, a year - on - year increase of 31.9% [2][116]. - **North American Market**: In October, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the US was 94,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 50.9%. The cumulative sales from January to October were 1.425 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. The penetration rate dropped from 15% in September to 7% in October [1][115]. - **Other Regions**: In October, the sales volume in other regions was 102,000, a year - on - year increase of 88.8%, and the cumulative sales from January to October were 884,000, a year - on - year increase of 59.8% [2][116]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Data on power battery installation volume, export volume, weekly average price of battery cells, and material costs are presented. Also, data on the operating rates and prices of various battery materials such as ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and negative electrode materials are provided [78][82][88]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Data on the daily prices of raw materials such as rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented [98][99]. 3.3 Hot News Summary 3.3.1 Industry Dynamics: China - According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative retail sales since this year increased by 20% year - on - year [104]. - According to the Ministry of Commerce, in the first 11 months of this year, over 11.2 million cars were replaced under the trade - in program [106]. 3.3.2 Industry Dynamics: Overseas - In Germany, in November, the sales of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid electric vehicles increased by 58.5% and 57.4% respectively. The ban on fuel - powered vehicles was relaxed for plug - in hybrid electric vehicles [107]. - The US reduced the import tariff on South Korean cars to 15% and retroactively applied it from November 1 [110]. - The US announced a proposal to relax the corporate average fuel economy standards [111]. 3.3.3 Enterprise Dynamics - BYD's vehicle sales in November were 480,186, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. The cumulative sales from January to November were 4.182038 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [112]. - Geely Auto's vehicle sales in November were 310,428, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The cumulative sales from January to November were 2.78775 million, a year - on - year increase of 42% [114].

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价下行， 氧化铝供应小幅压降 [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿价下行，氧化铝供应小幅压降 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 698 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西地区国产矿价格微调，随着进 口矿供应宽松幅度增加，价格下行压力加剧，国产铝土矿价格也 存在下调压力。进口方面，几内亚矿主流报价区间为 70-71 美元 /干吨，市场传出几内亚铝土矿现货报价降至 68 美元/干吨的消 息。周末时期再传顺达及 GIC 矿山复产消息，目前两家矿企已 在做复产准备，但尚未有具体复产时间，预期于 2026 年元旦前 后。期内新到矿石 380.0 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 291.8 万吨， 澳大利亚资源 71.4 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 26 美元/吨，价格明显上行。 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格小幅下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方 综合价格在 2780-2820 元/吨，较上周跌 25 元/吨；国产加 ...

周度报告-黄金 降息预期定价充分，黄金震荡收跌 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 7 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 1%至 4198 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.14%，通 胀预期 2.27%，实际利率上行至 1.87%，美元指数跌 0.47%至 99，标 普 500 指数涨 0.31%，人民币走势震荡，沪金折价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价震荡收跌，波动率下降，缺乏增量利多，白银和铜交易热度 明显高于黄金。美联储进入 12 月利率会议前的静默期，降息 25bp 已经被市场充分定价，特朗普宣布将于明年初公布美联储主席人 选，暗示将会是白宫经济顾问委员会主席哈塞特，其货币政策倾 向于鸽派，一度提振黄金价格。美国经济数据喜忧参半，11 月美 国 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 48.2，不及市场预期的 49，连续 9 个月处 于收缩区间，非制造业 PMI 从 52.4 微升至 52.6，预期 52.1，制造 业和非制造业 PMI 的就业分项较上月回升，但仍然处于 50 荣枯 线下方，关税对价格和需求的影响已经开始体现，美联储褐皮书 ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 供应压力影响短期预期，盘面高位回调 | | | 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 7 日 [Table_Summary] ★供应压力影响短期预期，盘面高位回调 上周（11/24-11/28）锂盐价格呈偏弱走势。LC2512 收盘价环比 -4.1%至 9.07 万元/吨，LC2601 收盘价环比-4.1%至 9.08 万元/吨； SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.5%至 9.33、9.08 万 元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢 氧化锂均价环比分别+0.1%、+0.1%至 8.21、8.69 万元/吨。电工 价差环比持平至 2,450 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂 价格贴水环比缩窄 550 元至 1.1 万元/吨。 据智利海关，11 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 2.0 万吨，环比 -27%，同比-14%；其中对中国出口 1.47 万吨，环比-9.4%，同比 -13%，对应 12 月到港量环比预计下滑。1-11 月智利合计出口碳 酸锂及氢氧化锂 23.5 万吨，同比-2%；其中对中国出口 15.2 万吨， 同比-15%。 上周盘面呈偏弱回调，消息 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are less optimistic than previously expected, and it may trade between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3][16]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. If the PS2601 contract gaps down significantly on Monday, long - buying opportunities at low levels should be considered, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity for the PS2605 contract [3][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,805 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,900 yuan/ton [9]. - The PS2601 contract of polysilicon decreased by 915 yuan/ton to 55,510 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding material of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories Increase Production, and New Delivery Brands for Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated downward. Xinjiang added 5 units, Yunnan reduced 2 units, Sichuan decreased 14 units, and Inner Mongolia added 1 unit. Shihezi launched a level II (orange) emergency response for heavy pollution weather [1][4][11]. - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.8 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.29 million tons week - on - week. From December to the first quarter of next year, industrial silicon will accumulate 10,000 - 20,000 tons of inventory per month [11]. Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon continued to rise. Some enterprises reduced production, and some resumed production. The overall operating rate was 73.31%, the weekly output was 48,500 tons, a decrease of 2.81% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,600 tons, an increase of 2.01% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11][12]. Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The production schedule in December is expected to be 112,000 tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable [2][12]. Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers continued to fall, and the average price of each size has broken through the cash cost. Production is expected to be 45GW in December, and the inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level [13]. Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells remained stable. Production is expected to be 47.8GW in December. The price is expected to remain stable [13]. Components - This week, the price of components remained basically stable. Production is expected to be significantly lower in December, with only 37GW for domestic production. The price is expected to decline [14]. New Delivery Brands for Polysilicon - On December 5th, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands for polysilicon futures. Orient Hope's monthly production of benchmark delivery products is about 3,000 tons, and Jingnuo's is about 1,000 tons [2][15]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are less optimistic. It may trade between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3][16]. Polysilicon - The spot price is expected to remain stable. If the PS2601 contract gaps down significantly on Monday, consider long - buying opportunities at low levels. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity for the PS2605 contract [3][16]. 3.4 Hot News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands for polysilicon futures [15][17]. - The trading margin standard and trading limit of the PS2601 contract of polysilicon futures were adjusted [17]. - The power industry released the new energy grid - connected consumption situation in October 2025, with a photovoltaic utilization rate of 94.8% and a wind power utilization rate of 96.4% [18]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economic data is weakening, and the US dollar is turning downward. The market has fully priced in a 25bp interest rate cut by the Fed in December. Although the Fed is expected to cut rates, the internal hawkish - dovish divide limits future rate - cut space. The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike is also affecting the market. Overall, the downward pressure on the US dollar index is increasing, waiting for the Fed's rate - cut confirmation [2][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remains high. Most stock markets rise, and most bond yields increase, with the US Treasury yield rising to 4.14%. The US dollar index drops 0.47% to 99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Gold prices fall 1% to $4198 per ounce, the VIX index drops to 15.4, and the spot commodity index rises. Brent crude oil rises 0.4% to $64.6 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rises 0.31%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.37%. The Fed is in a silent period before the interest - rate meeting, and the market has fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in December. US economic data is mixed, but the downward trend persists. The domestic stock market shows a slight upward and volatile trend, with policy intentions to attract long - term funds but also facing year - end profit - taking [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields rise, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rises to 4.14%. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fully priced, but inflation limits future rate - cut space. The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike and fiscal stimulus push up Japanese long - term bond yields, driving up European and American bond yields. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield rises to 1.833%, and the Sino - US interest - rate spread inversion widens [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.47% to 99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises slightly by 0.02%, the euro rises 0.38%, the pound rises 0.7%, the yen rises 0.54%, etc. [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold falls 1% to $4198 per ounce. The market has fully priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and gold lacks upward momentum. Brent crude oil rises 0.4% to $64.6 per barrel. The oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but concerns about supply from potential US actions against Venezuela and the fall of the US dollar support the rise of the commodity index [29][30][31] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - US core PCE data is weaker than expected, and employment decreases. The latest manufacturing PMI is below 50, and ADP employment shows negative growth. The core PCE inflation pressure is relatively small, and a rate cut in December is likely [32][33][36] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's November import and export data - Tuesday: US November NFIB small - business confidence index, US October JOLTs job openings - Wednesday: China's November CPI, Bank of Canada interest - rate meeting - Thursday: Fed interest - rate meeting decision, US weekly initial jobless claims, US November PPI - Friday: Final November CPI values for Germany and France [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, treasury bond futures showed divergent trends, with ultra - long bonds experiencing a significant decline. Next week, mid - short - term bonds are likely to stabilize, while the stabilization of ultra - long bonds remains to be observed [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From December 1st to 7th, treasury bond futures showed divergent trends, with TL dropping significantly. By December 5th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.755, 107.890, and 112.570 yuan respectively, changing by +0.034, +0.020, - 0.025, and - 1.890 yuan compared to last weekend [2][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - Mid - short - term bonds are likely to stabilize as the Politburo meeting's policy tone is expected to be positive but not exceed market expectations, and the capital situation is balanced. However, the trading structure of ultra - long bonds is fragile, and whether they can stabilize remains uncertain [3][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 78 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 430.717 billion yuan and a net financing of - 79.767 billion yuan. The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds were 108.717 billion yuan and 60.493 billion yuan respectively. The issuance and net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit were 495.910 billion yuan and 47.100 billion yuan respectively [21] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of December 5th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.41%, 1.63%, 1.85%, and 2.27% respectively, with changes of - 1.10, + 1.41, + 0.53, and + 8.20 bp compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [24] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of December 5th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed by +0.034, +0.020, - 0.025, and - 1.890 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes this week were 32,320, 73,177, 101,358, and 150,455 lots respectively, with changes of - 10,101, - 20,366, - 31,250, and + 8,160 lots compared to last week. The open interests were 67,038, 143,326, 238,115, and 169,766 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,505, - 11,924, - 22,264, and - 5,537 lots compared to last week [33][36] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, short - term varieties were relatively stable, while ultra - long bonds dropped significantly. The basis fluctuated and widened. Currently, the IRR of each variety has generally declined, and the positive arbitrage opportunity is not obvious [40] 3.3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of December 5th, the inter - period spreads of the 2512 - 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were +0.024, - 0.035, +0.195, and +0.160 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.012, + 0.015, - 0.020, and - 0.070 yuan compared to last weekend [45] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Situation - This week, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. As of December 5th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.50%, 1.44%, 1.30%, and 1.42% respectively, with changes of - 2.59, - 2.88, + 0.00, and - 2.10 bp compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.93 trillion yuan, 0.84 trillion yuan more than last week [48][51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds increased. As of December 5th, the US dollar index fell 0.46% to 98.9830 compared to last weekend, the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.14%, up 12 bp from last weekend, and the spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 229.1 bp [57] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices generally rose. As of December 5th, the Southern China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3511.97, 6612.13, and 1537.11 points respectively, with changes of + 12.72, + 112.05, and - 16.74 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices also generally rose, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits being 17.68, 5.93, and 7.41 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.15, + 0.14, and + 0.19 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [63] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - The downside risk of mid - short - term varieties is basically eliminated. However, whether ultra - long bonds can stabilize remains to be observed. If the price is considered relatively reasonable, short - sellers can moderately realize floating profits, and long - buyers should be cautious [64]