1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The differences between Chinese and Singaporean iron ore futures lie in trading mechanisms, delivery methods, and market positioning. DCE iron ore is denominated in RMB, with physical delivery as the core, closely linked to the Chinese industrial chain. SGX iron ore is denominated in US dollars, with cash delivery, and more focused on financial attributes [1][100]. - Both DCE and SGX iron ore futures have a high price convergence with the spot price, providing a basis for hedging. However, their dynamic correlations differ, and neither the futures nor the spot prices follow a normal distribution, with significant basis fluctuations. Without considering the impact of value - added tax, the hedging effectiveness of SGX iron ore is 92.62%, better than DCE's 70.02%. The co - integration test shows that there is a long - term stable co - integration relationship between SGX iron ore and the spot, while there is no such relationship for DCE iron ore [2][101]. - Using the ECM model to estimate the optimal hedging ratio, without considering value - added tax, the optimal hedging ratio for DCE iron ore is 37.69%, and for SGX iron ore is 107.31%. The former has limited short - term price transmission efficiency and a slow equilibrium adjustment speed, while the latter requires an over - allocation of futures contracts to hedge spot risks, possibly due to amplified market volatility or unconventional basis changes [3][102]. - Under the ECM model, the risk avoided by the asset portfolio after hedging with SGX iron ore is 76.23%, higher than that of DCE iron ore. Although SGX iron ore is more volatile, its futures - spot price linkage is closer, and the variance of the SGX portfolio after hedging is lower than that of the DCE portfolio [4][103]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 New and Chinese Iron Ore Futures Overview - **DCE Iron Ore Futures**: Launched in 2013, aiming to establish a pricing benchmark reflecting Chinese supply - demand relations. It has developed into the world's largest iron ore derivatives market. However, its market activity has weakened in recent years. It uses RMB for pricing, physical delivery, and has an 80% coverage of China's spot trade volume [11][13]. - **SGX Iron Ore Futures**: Launched in 2013, with US - dollar pricing and cash delivery, it provides an efficient risk - management tool and price - discovery platform for international investors. Despite facing the diversion pressure from DCE iron ore, its position - holding volume shows a stable and seasonal growth, indicating a mature market [16][17]. - **Contract Comparison**: Differences exist in contract design, delivery methods, margin and position - limit systems, and regulatory methods. DCE iron ore focuses on protecting the domestic industry, while SGX iron ore is more attractive to international capital [22][31]. 3.2 Iron Ore Futures Hedging Feasibility Analysis - **Correlation between Futures and Spot Prices**: Both DCE and SGX iron ore futures have a high correlation with the spot price, with correlation coefficients of 0.8901 and 0.9735 respectively. They can be used as hedging tools, but their applicable scenarios differ [34][43]. - **Descriptive Statistics of Futures and Spot Prices**: Neither the futures nor the spot prices follow a normal distribution, which is due to the complexity of the iron ore market and the heterogeneity of price fluctuations [56]. - **Descriptive Statistics of the Basis**: The basis of both DCE and SGX iron ore futures shows non - normality. Without considering value - added tax, the hedging effectiveness of SGX iron ore is higher than that of DCE iron ore [65][70]. - **Stationarity Test of Futures and Spot Prices**: The original price series of both DCE and SGX iron ore futures are non - stationary, but their logarithmic return series are stationary, meeting the requirements for further modeling [74][80]. - **Co - integration Test of Futures and Spot Prices**: There is a long - term stable co - integration relationship between SGX iron ore and the spot, while there is no such relationship for DCE iron ore [84][85]. 3.3 Estimation of the Optimal Hedging Ratio of Iron Ore Futures Using the ECM model, without considering value - added tax, the optimal hedging ratio for DCE iron ore is 37.69%, and for SGX iron ore is 107.31%. The short - term price transmission efficiency of DCE iron ore is limited, and the equilibrium adjustment speed is slow. The ratio of SGX iron ore exceeds 100%, which may be due to amplified market volatility or unconventional basis changes [90][94]. 3.4 Iron Ore Futures Hedging Effect Evaluation In the ECM model, the risk avoided by the asset portfolio after hedging with SGX iron ore is 76.23%, higher than that of DCE iron ore. Although SGX iron ore is more volatile, its futures - spot price linkage is closer, and the variance of the SGX portfolio after hedging is lower [98][99].

半年度报告-美豆&豆粕 等待驱动，价格运行中枢上移 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 报告日期： [Table_Summary] ★美豆 25/26 年度平衡表或趋紧 迄今为止美豆主产区天气良好，但7-8月才是决定单产的关键时期。 EPA 政策利好美豆压榨，但受限于产能、美豆压榨继续上调的空 间或有限；受特朗普政策影响，未来美豆出口变化可能很大，但预 计最坏情况也不会差于第一轮贸易战时期。我们测算美国 25/26 年 度平衡表大概率较上年度更紧张，这也就意味着 CBOT 大豆价格 震荡/震荡向上的概率更大。 ★预计豆粕价格运行中枢上移 农 产 品 CBOT 大豆震荡或震荡上行，而随着 7 月巴西玉米上市出口增加， 大豆出口将逐月递减，巴西出口 CNF 升贴水则将逐月抬升，两者 共同影响下国内进口大豆成本也将逐渐增加，对远月豆粕期价形成 支撑。现货供需上，当前豆粕处于季节性累库周期，但由于需求好 于预期，豆粕累库速度较慢。此外，国内豆粕压力最大的时候预计 出现在 7 月底-8 月，随后豆粕库存将出现拐点。如果我国 4 季度完 全不进口美豆，届时豆粕现货还可能出现紧缺。 ★后市展望 预计 CBOT 大豆难再跌破 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc demand is weakening, and it's unlikely to improve before the peak season. The decline in demand mainly comes from small and medium - sized factories, while large factories will maintain production to support rigid demand. The profitability of enterprises is deteriorating, and the industry's prosperity is declining. In terms of investment, a high - short strategy is recommended, along with positive spreads arbitrage in the medium - term [1][2][38] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Objects - The research focused on galvanizing and hot - dip galvanizing alloy enterprises in Tianjin. The sample mainly included medium - to large - scale production enterprises, covering galvanized pipes, galvanized sheets, and hot - dip galvanizing alloy enterprises, with terminal customers in various fields such as real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, and exports [12] 3.2 Core Research Conclusions and Analysis - **Early Demand Resilience and Bright Coated Orders**: At the beginning of the year, the demand was relatively strong, especially for coated orders. However, recently, the orders of downstream customers have weakened significantly, and the finished products of manufacturers have started to accumulate inventory [14] - **Weakening Galvanizing Demand**: Most manufacturers are cautious about future demand. Galvanizing orders are unlikely to recover significantly during the off - season from June to August. Zinc - aluminum - magnesium orders depend on policy support, and export orders are expected to weaken. Although there may be a restocking effect in late August and an improvement in orders during the peak season, manufacturers are not optimistic about the support strength and sustainability [15] - **Deteriorating Corporate Profits**: Galvanizing processing fees have been declining, and the competition among enterprises is intense. The zinc cost accounts for over 40% of the total cost. This year, most galvanizing production lines are operating at a loss, and the cash flow of small and medium - sized factories is under pressure [26] - **Limited Downstream Purchasing Power**: Downstream large factories maintain stable raw material inventories, while small and medium - sized factories have rigid - demand inventories. Due to the off - season and inventory accumulation, the downstream's willingness to purchase raw materials is limited [27] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a high - short strategy. When there is a boost from macro - sentiment in the short term, consider adding positions on rebounds, but also pay attention to the support at previous lows. For arbitrage, positive spreads arbitrage is recommended after the end of the reverse spreads trend. In the medium - term, maintain a positive spreads arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets [38] 3.4 Research Minutes - **Galvanizing and Zinc Alloy Enterprise A**: It mainly produces cold - rolled sheets, galvanized sheets, and zinc - aluminum - magnesium alloys. The annual production capacity is 3 million tons, with about one - third for export. The company maintains a high - level of production, but the photovoltaic orders are poor. It expects orders to improve in the later stage of the third quarter [44][45] - **Galvanized Pipe Enterprise B**: It mainly produces welded pipes and galvanized pipes. The annual production capacity is 600,000 tons of welded pipes and 160,000 tons of hot - dip galvanized pipes. The company's orders have been declining for years, and it is operating at a loss this year. It expects a limited improvement in orders in the second half of the year [50][51] - **Galvanized Pipe Enterprise C**: It is a leading steel pipe enterprise. The galvanized pipe production accounts for about half of the national total. The company's orders are decreasing year by year, and it is cautious about the improvement in the peak season [56][57] - **Galvanizing Enterprise D**: It mainly produces hot - dip galvanizing alloys and coated sheets. The annual production is about 250,000 tons. The company is operating at 50% capacity due to weak orders. It expects the peak - season demand to depend on the restocking in August [64][65] - **Galvanizing Alloy Enterprise E**: It focuses on zinc - aluminum - magnesium and coated orders. The company's coated orders are strong, but the zinc - aluminum - magnesium orders have declined significantly since June. The profitability mainly comes from futures operations and spot hedging [71][72] - **Galvanizing Enterprise F**: It mainly produces galvanized products. The company is operating at full capacity and is optimistic about its own development, but not about the industry as a whole. The processing fee is about 200 yuan/ton, with a profit of 10 - 20 yuan/ton [78][79] - **Galvanized Sheet Enterprise G**: It focuses on processing and selling strip steel, color plates, and building decoration plates. The company's orders have declined recently, and it is operating at a loss. The finished products have accumulated inventory [86][87]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market showed a continuous downward trend, with pharmaceutical and biological and power equipment contributing to the main decline of the CSI 300 Index, and pharmaceutical and biological and non - ferrous metals contributing to the main decline of the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. The trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, and the basis strengthened [4]. - For the bond futures market, the basis of bond futures fluctuated narrowly this week, some contracts experienced CTD switching affected by new bonds, the IRR generally fluctuated at a high level, and the inter - period spread mainly declined. The net value of the multi - factor timing strategy for bond futures increased this week, and the strategy signals were mostly bullish. The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage strategy for bond futures increased, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and conducts bond futures hedging [55]. - In the commodity market, last week, the domestic commodity market was affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East. Crude oil and related energy and chemical varieties mostly rose, and most commodity factors continued to rise, with the term structure factors performing the best, followed by the price - volume trend factors [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market showed a continuous downward trend, and the trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, with the basis strengthening. Pharmaceutical and biological and power equipment contributed to the main decline of the CSI 300 Index, and pharmaceutical and biological and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main decline of the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy - The basis of stock index futures strengthened significantly. After the dividend adjustment of IC and IM, the discounts converged to 8.6% and 12.1% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period arbitrage strategy, and short - selling hedging is recommended to hold near - month contracts to avoid the risk of further basis convergence [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the strategy net value declined significantly last week, with the annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factors losing 0.5%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor gave reverse arbitrage signals for IH, IF, and IM, and a positive arbitrage signal for IC [5]. - The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage timing strategy lost 0.1% last week. The cross - variety momentum signals performed poorly, and all portfolios were currently empty [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy models were profitable last week, with the single - factor equal - weight, OLS, and XGB models earning 0.2%, 0%, and 1.2% respectively. The bearish signals of the timing models strengthened, with the XGB model bearish on all indices, and the OLS model bullish on the SSE 50 and CSI 300 and bearish on the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - In terms of basis and inter - period spreads, the basis of bond futures fluctuated narrowly this week, some contracts experienced CTD switching affected by new bonds, the IRR generally fluctuated at a high level, and the inter - period spread mainly declined. The uncertainty of the inter - period spread increased after a short - term rebound [55]. - For the futures timing strategy, the net value of the multi - factor timing strategy increased this week, and the strategy signals were mostly bullish, with the main bullish factors being the basis factor and high - frequency factor [55]. - In the futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signal of the TS - T cross - variety arbitrage strategy was volatile, and the latest signal of the T - TL strategy was bearish [55]. - For the credit bond neutral strategy, the bond futures hedging pressure index based on far - month contracts continued to rebound, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and conducts bond futures hedging [55]. 3.3 Commodity CTA 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the domestic commodity market was affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East. Crude oil and related energy and chemical varieties mostly rose, and most commodity factors continued to rise. The term structure factors performed the best, with an average increase of over 1%, followed by the price - volume trend factors, with an average increase of over 0.5%. Only the warehouse receipt factors declined [75]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies had different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, maximum drawdown, recent weekly return, and year - to - date return. For example, the CWFT strategy had an annualized return of 10.1%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.70, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, with a recent weekly return of 0.11% and a year - to - date return of 3.76% [76].

美联储按兵不动，黄金高位回落 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 月 | 22 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 1.9%至 3368 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.38%，通胀 预期 2.34%，实际利率降至 2.03%，美元指数涨 0.53%至 98.7，标普 500 指数跌 0.15%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 贵 金 金价高位回落，表现弱于原油和白银，中东地区地缘政治风险继 续扰动市场，但资金选择做多价格更低的品种，对黄金的配置反 而有限，美国对伊朗的核设施进行打击后，预计伊朗的反击能力 有限，当前的地缘冲突程度难以带动黄金突破上涨，关注后续美 国的参与程度。 属 美联储 6 月利率会议按兵不动，点阵图显示支持年内不降息的人 数增加，2026 年的降息预期下降，经济预测则显示美国滞胀风险 增加，但由于就业市场存有韧性，关税对通胀的影响还未完全体 现，美联储选择继续观望，市场降息预期维持在 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 氧化铝供应小幅增加， 关注中东局势对商品影响 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 22 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★氧化铝供应小幅增加，关注中东局势对商品影响 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西地区前期入驻的检查组工 作尚未结束, 矿山开工较前期无明显变化。河南地区矿山同样面 临政府常规化检查。在供给量有所减少的背景下，晋豫两地铝土 矿价格维持坚挺。南方主产区进入传统雨季，后续矿山将面临季 节性考验。进口方面，几内亚高品位铝土矿（45/3）成交价稳定 在 75 美元/干吨。目前矿商对 7 月后资源报价均于 CIF 77 美元/ 吨之上。下游铝企采购需求已呈现阶段性饱和态势。用户采购意 向多集中于 CIF 65-70 美元/吨。几内亚雨 ...

上周锂盐价格偏弱震荡。LC2507 收盘价环比-0.2%至 5.98 万元/ 吨，LC2509 收盘价环比-1.5%至 5.89 万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸 锂近月合约收盘价环比持平、仍是 5.9 万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂 价格延续弱势，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比 -2.1%、-2.0%至 5.90、6.42 万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、仍是 0.16 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比走 阔 0.1 万元至 0.14 万元/吨。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：震荡 | 陈祎萱 CFA | 高级分析师（有色金属） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 月 22 日 | 从业资格号： | F3074710 | | | | 投资咨询号： | Z0017769 | | [Table_Summary] ★5 月锂元素进口量环比回落，关注 | Back 结构下仓单生成节奏 | Tel: | 8621-63325888-2722 | | | | Email: | yixuan.chen@orientfutures. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon do not support a significant rebound in spot prices, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level. For polysilicon, before the leading enterprises cut production, the fundamentals are bearish for the market, and a short - term short and long - term long strategy can be considered [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week to 7390 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - fed 553 remained flat at 8150 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 7600 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1550 yuan/ton week - on - week to 31220 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re - feeding material was 34400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2300 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Supply - side Rumors of Resumption of Production, Excess Pattern Remains Unchanged 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated. Xinjiang and Sichuan increased the number of furnaces by 8 and 1 respectively, while Qinghai, Liaoning, and Jilin decreased by 1, 2, and 1 respectively. The weekly output was 76,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.9%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week. The resumption of production is greater than the reduction, and the demand has no obvious improvement. The balance sheet may accumulate inventory from June to July, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11] 3.2.2 Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon continued to fall. Some enterprises entered maintenance or reduced production. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 70.29%, the weekly output was 46,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%. The inventory was 50,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. The price is expected to continue to face downward pressure [11] 3.2.3 Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures declined significantly. After the SNEC exhibition, the signing price of polysilicon declined again. The downstream pressured prices severely. The production schedule for June was raised to 100,000 tons, and it is tentatively expected to be 107,000 tons in July. As of June 19, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 262,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the price is expected to continue to fall [2][12] 3.2.4 Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers continued to fall. As of June 19, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.74GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6GW. The production schedule for June was 55GW, and it is expected to be about 54GW in July. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [12] 3.2.5 Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells continued to fall. The production schedule for June was expected to be 53GW, and it was still in the stage of inventory accumulation. As of June 16, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 16.19GW, a week - on - week increase of 1.21GW. If there is no significant reduction in supply, the price is expected to continue to fall [13] 3.2.6 Components - This week, the price of components decreased. The production schedule for June was about 50GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. It is expected that the demand will weaken further from July to August. The overall production schedule decline is slow, and the price is expected to continue to fall [14] 3.3 Investment Recommendations 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - The futures market is relatively strong this period, but the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in spot prices. If the market rebounds, it gives silicon factories a new hedging opportunity. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level, and short - selling with a light position can be considered after the rebound [3][15] 3.3.2 Polysilicon - Before the leading enterprises cut production, the fundamentals are bearish for the market. A short - term short and long - term long strategy can be considered. The key lies in the production - cut actions of leading enterprises. There will be a game between long and short positions in the market [3][15] 3.4 Hot News Collation - Pakistan plans to impose an 18% VAT on imported solar panels and photovoltaic cells in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year to support local manufacturers. Argentina's first photovoltaic component factory is about to open, with an initial production capacity of 450MW and a target of 1GW in the future. Sichuan Province supports Yibin City to build a photovoltaic industrial park, with a total investment of 135.3 billion yuan in the photovoltaic industry chain [16][17] 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - The report provides various high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, profit, inventory, and production data [18][29][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond bull market is expected to continue, and it is recommended to steepen the yield curve. The market is driven by loose liquidity expectations, weak economic data in May, and strong market sentiment. However, the rally is based on expectations, and there is some instability. Adjustments could be opportunities to add positions. Short - end and ultra - long - end bonds are expected to perform strongly [2][14][16] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1.1 Weekly Review: Treasury Futures Continue to Strengthen - From June 16 - 22, treasury futures continued to strengthen. On Monday, they opened higher due to the central bank's 400 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase. Economic data in May was mostly weak, with only consumption exceeding expectations, and the bond market reacted little. On Tuesday, with loose funds and expected loose monetary policies, the bond market strengthened and the curve steepened. On Wednesday, the Lujiazui Financial Forum had limited incremental positive news, but the buying power in the bond market remained strong. On Thursday, the market worried about regulatory tightening, causing a temporary drop in futures. On Friday, with the LPR unchanged, the market expected the central bank to restart treasury bond trading, and the bond market strengthened. As of June 20, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury futures main contracts were 102.542, 106.275, 109.165, and 121.340 yuan respectively, up 0.080, 0.130, 0.155, and 0.810 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View: Bond Bull Market Continues, Keep Steepening the Curve - Next week, incremental news is limited, and the bond market will be driven by funds and sentiment. Near the end of the month, the expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading is rising, and there are no effective negative factors, so the bond bull market is expected to continue. The short - end and ultra - long - end bonds are expected to perform strongly, and the curve's short - end may steepen [14][16] 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 83 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 854.533 billion yuan and a net financing of 322.984 billion yuan, a change of - 86.593 billion yuan and + 30.336 billion yuan from last week respectively. Local government bonds issued 60, with a total issuance of 261.753 billion yuan and a net financing of 124.334 billion yuan, up 153.967 billion yuan and 167.346 billion yuan from last week respectively. 632 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 1102.32 billion yuan and a net financing of 80.68 billion yuan, up 61.6 billion yuan and 243.59 billion yuan from last week respectively [22][23] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of June 20, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.37%, 1.51%, 1.64%, and 1.84% respectively, down 4.89, 0.77, 0.44, and 1.20 bp from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened by 5.05 bp to 28.06 bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread widened by 0.33 bp to 13.41 bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 0.76 bp to 19.78 bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.49%, 1.58%, and 1.68% respectively, down 1.29, 2.29, and 2.88 bp from the previous weekend [27][28] 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury futures continued to strengthen. As of June 20, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury futures main contracts were 102.542, 106.275, 109.165, and 121.340 yuan respectively, up 0.080, 0.130, 0.155, and 0.810 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury futures this week were 32,988, 53,684, 58,000, and 65,458 lots respectively, a change of + 2015, + 2552, + 272, and + 1117 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 127,389, 182,960, 232,190, and 131,052 lots respectively, up 3389, 9949, 19213, and 6033 lots from the previous weekend [35][38] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The funds were generally balanced and loose, and the futures basis generally fluctuated narrowly. The IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%, and the current certificate of deposit rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, so the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was relatively limited [42] 3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of June 20, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury futures were - 0.150, - 0.060, 0.000, and + 0.160 yuan respectively, a change of - 0.036, + 0.005, - 0.010, and - 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [46][47] 4. Weekly Observation of Funds - This week, the central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. As of June 20, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.59%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.53% respectively, a change of + 3.12, - 3.20, - 4.30, and + 2.10 bp from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.32 trillion yuan, 0.37 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight ratio was 89.71%, slightly higher than last week [52][53][55] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury yield declined slightly. As of June 20, the US dollar index rose 0.63% to 98.7639 from the previous weekend, the 10Y US treasury yield was 4.38%, down 3 bp from the previous weekend, and the 10Y Sino - US treasury yield spread was inverted by 273.9 bp [60] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose uniformly. As of June 20, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3593.71, 6031.96, and 1720.25 points respectively, up 85.74, 10.08, and 67.98 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of June 20, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.33, 4.38, and 7.49 yuan/kg respectively, a change of + 0.07, + 0.05, and - 0.29 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [64] 7. Investment Suggestions - Adopt a bullish approach. Long positions can be held, and it is recommended to consider mid - term long positions on dips. Moderately pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in treasury futures. Consider the curve - steepening strategy, and recommend the 2TS - T strategy, and short - end varieties can also use physical bonds [17][18][19]