周度报告——股指期货 海外地缘冲突升级，国内风险偏好走弱 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a股ry]指高位回调 股 指 期 货 本周（06/16-06/20）以美元计价的全球股市收跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 0.44%，其中前沿市场（+0.05%）>新兴市场（-0.02%）> 发达市场（-0.49%）。韩国股市涨 4.85%领跑全球，瑞士股市跌 2.76%全球表现最差。中国权益资产回调，分市场看，港股>A 股>中概股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 12152 亿元，环比上周 （13718 亿元)缩量 1566 亿元。大中小盘各指数普遍收跌，其中 北证 50 跌幅 3.11%表现最差，创业板指则小幅收涨 0.22%表现较 好。本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 4 个上涨（上周 14 个），26 个 下跌（上周 16 个）。领涨行业为银行（+3.13%），跌幅最大的 行业为医药（-4.16%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下行， 1Y 下行，利差扩大。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周减少 6 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额增加 6 亿 份。跟踪中证 1000 的 ETF ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗，A 股出 现单边回调 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗 特朗普两周之内做出是否打击伊朗的决定，这意味着事态没有 进一步升级，进入到焦灼状态，市场短期维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2035 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 后续宽货币等利多难被证伪，因此多头情绪难以趋势性退潮， 债牛尚未结束，多头可继续持有。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 A 股单边回调 晨 报 A 股单边下跌，既有政策不及预期的原因，又有自身结构脆弱估 值偏高的压力。总体而言，宣泄成为纾解高估的方式之一，为 下一轮上行提供便宜的筹码。 农产品（玉米淀粉） 淀粉糖产品原料消耗量增加 淀粉糖产品原料消耗量增加 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 15.67 万吨 本周五大品种库存去化有所加速，现货基本面依然相对坚挺。 螺纹表需环比回落不大，同比仍在-7%左右。由于淡季累库尚未 出现，钢价延续震荡小幅反弹，但走弱预期仍难证伪。 能源化工（PTA） 江浙终端开工率 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Key Hubs Monitoring 20250619 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute - Department: Black and Shipping Department - Analyst: Lan Xi - Qualification Number: F03086543 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016590 Core Viewpoints - Seasonal typhoons have led to a resurgence of congestion in the Yangtze River Delta ports, with a slight increase in the waiting time for ships at Yangshan Port. Port Klang continues to operate at full capacity, maintaining high congestion levels. With the approaching global shipping peak season, ports will face continued pressure [2] - Congestion in Northwest Europe has slightly eased compared to the previous period, but congestion at the Port of Antwerp remains high. A national strike will be held at the port on the 25th of this month, which may further impact its operations [2] - North American ports are operating well. It is expected that the volume of goods arriving in the US will continue to increase starting this week. Attention should be paid to whether regional congestion will occur [2] Port Data Summaries Asian Ports - **Ship Time Data**: Yangshan Port's weekly average waiting/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 36.6 hours/25.1 hours, with 27/31 ships at anchor/berthed. Ningbo Port's corresponding times are 16.7 hours/25.4 hours, with 14/35 ships at anchor/berthed. Qingdao's are 18.6 hours/24.9 hours. Singapore Port's are 2.8 hours/28.1 hours, with 5/44 ships at anchor/berthed. Port Klang's are 29.4 hours/29.6 hours, with 12/21 ships at anchor/berthed [2] - **In - port Duration Data**: The latest in - port durations for Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, Port Klang, and other ports are 60.0 hours, 55.4 hours, 30.9 hours, 57.1 hours, etc., with corresponding year - on - year and month - on - month changes [6] European Ports - **Ship Time Data**: Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen's weekly average waiting/berthing times for ocean - going container ships are 3.3 hours/44.2 hours, 26.6 hours/34.7 hours, 15.1 hours/51.9 hours, 11.8 hours/41.3 hours respectively. Valencia's are 5.7 hours/36.6 hours [2] - **In - port Duration Data**: Rotterdam, Hamburg, and other ports have corresponding in - port durations and changes compared to the same period last year and the previous month [6] North American Ports - **Ship Time Data**: Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma's weekly average waiting/berthing times for ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/149.1 hours, 0 hours/98.9 hours, 0 hours/74.1 hours respectively. New York, Savannah, and Norfolk's are 0 hours/36.8 hours, 16.7 hours/35.1 hours, 10.6 hours/23.7 hours respectively. Houston Port's are 19.1 hours/53.5 hours [2] - **In - port Duration Data**: Long Beach, Los Angeles, New York, and other ports have corresponding in - port durations and changes compared to the same period last year and the previous month [6] Other Monitoring Data - **Large - ship Arrival Situation**: The report monitors the arrival situations of large - scale container ships at ports such as Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port, including the arrival numbers of ships with different tonnages [42] - **Key Hub Monitoring**: Monitors the passage situations of container ships at key hubs such as the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bullish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The June interest - rate meeting of the Federal Reserve was hawkish. Despite the rising stagflation pressure in the US economy, due to high concern about inflation, the Fed chose to continue monitoring, and the forward interest - rate guidance tended to suppress inflation expectations. Therefore, the US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [1][18][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. FOMC June Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the interest - rate level as expected, but the number of expected future interest - rate cuts decreased, weakening market risk appetite and causing a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [1][7] - The description of the economy indicated that economic activity continued to expand, and the unemployment rate remained low, but the change from "stable" to "maintained" in the description of the unemployment rate suggested a weakening labor market [1][7] - The Fed's view on the long - term economy showed less uncertainty, and the pressure of further expanding stagflation was reduced, with a marginal increase in optimism about the short - term economic trend [1][7] - Economic forecasts showed that the GDP growth rate in 2024 was expected to be only 1.4%, and the inflation rate would reach 3%. Compared with the March forecast, the GDP growth rate was lowered by 0.3 percentage points, and the PCE and core PCE were both raised by 0.3 percentage points, indicating rising short - term stagflation pressure [9] - The interest - rate dot plot showed that the number of expected interest - rate cuts in 2025 remained unchanged, but only one cut was expected in 2026 and 2027. The number of Fed officials who thought no cuts were needed increased to 7, indicating a hawkish stance [9] - Powell's press conference was hawkish. The Fed was highly concerned about inflation and optimistic about the US economic fundamentals [18] 2. Investment Advice - The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [2][19]

美联储再度维持利率不变 ，陆家嘴金融论坛 预期落空 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 日度报告——综合晨报 报 市场预计 6 月 30 日 USDA 将把美豆种植面积上调 50 万英亩至 8400 万英亩。昨日国内进口巴西豆成本上升，沿海油厂豆粕现 货报价小幅上涨，下游成交意愿高涨。 有色金属（铜） 统计局：中国 5 月铜材产量同比增长 13.4% 美联储继续按兵不动，市场对鹰派声明有所担忧，美元阶段转 强抑制铜价，预计盘面继续高位震荡可能性更大。 能源化工（液化石油气） 美联储再度维持利率不变 点阵图预示年底前将降息两次 美联储最新利率会议维持利率水平不变，但是远期降息预期次 数减少，美元指数震荡走强。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行行长潘功胜在 2025 陆家嘴论坛上宣布八项重磅举措 综 陆家嘴金融论坛并未公布宽货币政策，市场预期落空，但国债 期货跌幅极有限，这说明市场做多情绪已经升温。建议尽快布 局多头仓位。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 USDA 周度出口销售报告前瞻 美国 C3 库存累库 美国 C3 累库速率降低，镇海外放目前尚未冲击民用气市场。 | ...

美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险 仍未消除 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-18 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑 美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险仍未消除，美股回 吐周一涨幅。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外管局：5 月外资增持境内股票进一步增加 综 市场共识确实，依旧演绎窄幅震荡走势。短期内热点事件以及 板块轮动对股指带动有限，建议等待 7 月份政治局会议为下半年 定调。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展 1973 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 今日资金面均衡偏松，市场预期近期将有一系列宽货币政策落 地，债市走强，曲线走陡。 黑色金属（动力煤） 17 日鄂尔多斯市场动力煤以稳为主 后期关注天气和日耗情况，若日耗能够保持正增速，整体煤价 持平。若日耗在夏季增速转负，则煤价或二次探底。 有色金属（锌） 西北某锌冶炼厂新增锌合金产线 由于短中期看不到明确利多，而前期社库去化锌价反弹也相当 有限，加仓点位预期或需调低，绝对价格上前低仍有压力，建 议维持反弹沽空思路。 能源化工（原油） IEA 小幅下调今明两年全球需求增速 油价再度走强， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data in May showed a mixed performance, with external demand weakening but government subsidies taking effect. While the economy demonstrated resilience in Q2, facing a growth target of 5% is not difficult, but pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge in Q3, making it necessary to introduce incremental policies. The bond market is desensitized to the fundamentals and will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. External Demand Weakens but Government Subsidies Take Effect, Economic Data Shows Mixed Performance - **Production Side: Industrial Production Weakens, Service Industry Strengthens** - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.8%, lower than expected and the previous value, with external demand weakening and persistently low prices being the main reasons. The growth rate of the service industry production index was 6.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, due to policy support and holiday demand [1][13][14] - Looking ahead, the production growth rate is likely to maintain a resilient decline, with structural differentiation continuing. Industrial production will face downward pressure, but the year-on-year reading of industrial added value will not decline significantly. The growth rate of the service industry production may weaken, but will not decline sharply either [19] - **Demand Side: Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Infrastructure Growth Rates All Decline** - From January to May, the cumulative investment growth rate in manufacturing was 8.5%, continuing to decline. External demand weakening, the domestic supply-demand imbalance, and policy factors have affected corporate investment willingness, but policy support has maintained a certain level of resilience [22] - From January to May, the cumulative growth rate of general infrastructure was 10.42%, showing a slight decline. The slow issuance of local special bonds is the main reason. In the short term, infrastructure growth may face downward pressure, but it will rise again with policy support [26][30] - Most real estate data continued to weaken. The willingness of the residential sector to purchase homes with debt remains low, and real estate companies are facing increasing financial pressure. Policy aims to stabilize the real estate market while accelerating industry transformation [31][32][33] - **Demand Side: Retail Sales Growth Rate Exceeds Expectations and Rebounds** - In May, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 6.4%, higher than the previous value. Holiday factors and government subsidies have stimulated consumer demand, but the sustainability of consumption improvement needs to be observed. In Q3, incremental policies are expected to boost consumption [36][37][39] 2. The Bond Market is Desensitized to the Fundamentals and Maintains an Oscillatory Pattern in the Short Term - The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but market participants are well aware of this, so fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. The yield curve is relatively flat, and the upward space for long-term bonds mainly depends on the performance of short-term bonds [40][41] - Short-term bonds are currently overvalued, and their upward movement requires confirmation of a continuous loosening of the money supply. In the short term, the market will be oscillatory, and the bond bull market may show a "stop-and-go" rhythm [42] - Strategies include paying attention to mid - line long positions on dips, noting that the opportunities for futures positive spreads have significantly decreased, and initial opportunities for steepening the yield curve have emerged, requiring close attention to changes in liquidity expectations [43][44][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a vague stage, with the market's risk aversion sentiment cooling in the short - term, and the US dollar index weakening. The price of gold has returned below the $3400 mark, lacking the momentum to break through and rise [1][13][17]. - China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance. Although consumption growth exceeded expectations, the downward trend in the real estate sector offset the positive impact of consumption to some extent. The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but it is difficult for fundamental news to drive the bond market to strengthen further [2][24][27]. - In the commodity market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy changes. For example, the price of soybean meal is affected by factors such as the growth of US soybeans and the cost of imported Brazilian soybeans; the price of crude oil fluctuates greatly due to the unclear situation in the Middle East [3][5][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and resume negotiations on its nuclear program. The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds. Japan has not reached an overall agreement with the US on tariffs. The price of gold has fallen by more than 1%, and it lacks the momentum to break through and rise in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and be aware of the risk of price corrections [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the UK signed a trade agreement, and the US will postpone sanctions against Russia. The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a vague stage, the market's risk aversion sentiment has cooled in the short - term, and the US dollar index has weakened. It is recommended that the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The New York Fed's manufacturing index in June showed a greater - than - expected contraction. Iran has sent signals for dialogue, but the geopolitical risk has not been completely eliminated. The risk of a correction in the US stock market is still relatively large [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Goldman Sachs is bullish on the performance of Chinese private enterprises. China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance, and it is recommended to allocate individual stock indexes evenly [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance, and the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market. It is recommended to layout medium - term long positions on dips [26][27][28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased, the NOPA's May soybean crushing volume was the highest in the same period in history but lower than expected, and the excellent - good rate of US soybeans has decreased by 2%. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the demand for soybean meal is strong. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate, and the basis is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [29][30][32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The production of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 15 decreased by 4% month - on - month, and the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China has increased. The price of the oil market is supported by the demand for US biodiesel. It is not recommended to short, and short - term long - buying opportunities can be continued to be关注 [33][34]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is running firmly at a high level. The cost of raw materials supports the price of corn starch, and it is recommended to wait and see [35][36][37]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn has risen slightly. The supply of imported corn may increase, and the substitution of wheat is limited. The 09 contract of corn is expected to oscillate first strongly and then weakly. It is not recommended to short or long the 09 contract, and opportunities to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies can be关注 when the new - season yield is more clear [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is running weakly. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed qualitatively. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about chasing long positions [38][39]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's crude steel production in May was 86.55 million tons. The demand for real estate has not changed significantly, and the demand for infrastructure and manufacturing has also changed little. The steel price is supported by energy prices, but the rebound space is limited. It is recommended that the steel price will oscillate in the short term, and the spot end should be treated with a rally - hedging strategy [4][40][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The market is pessimistic about the future trend of silicon wafer prices. The production of polysilicon in June is expected to maintain at 960,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies, and pay attention to the production - reduction actions of leading enterprises [45][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The transaction center of organic silicon DMC has moved down. The supply of industrial silicon may increase, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short lightly on rallies [47][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - LME copper inventory has fallen to a new low in more than a year. Iran is seeking dialogue, and the risk of geopolitical war has decreased. The domestic copper inventory is still at a low level, and the supply of deliverable goods is tight. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [49][52][53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import management of lithium - ion battery and recycled steel raw materials has been standardized. A US energy storage integrator has applied for bankruptcy. The downstream receiving willingness is insufficient after the rebound, and the basis has weakened. It is recommended not to short at the current point, and it is advisable to short on rallies [54][55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount, and the social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - An Australian silver - zinc mine has achieved commercial production. The supply of zinc is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies, wait and see for spreads, and maintain a positive - spread strategy for domestic - foreign arbitrage in the medium term [59][60][62]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The conflict between Iran and Israel has pushed up freight rates. The impact of the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field on LPG production is limited. It is recommended to关注 reverse - spread trading opportunities [63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's production in May increased by 180,000 barrels per day month - on - month. The price of oil fluctuates greatly due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. It is recommended to note that geopolitical conflicts will cause increased volatility [65][66][67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has strengthened, and the market negotiation atmosphere is fair. The supply of PTA has increased, and the demand has decreased. It is not recommended to chase long positions directly, and it is advisable to short after the geopolitical situation eases [68][69]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The supply of pure benzene and styrene is gradually returning, and the demand is expected to be average in the far - month. It is recommended to note that the absolute price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disturbances [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. The international market has high internal - external price differences, and the spot sentiment has improved. It is recommended to关注 the export situation and policy relaxation [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased. The supply of asphalt is expected to be continuously restricted, and the price of asphalt is expected to oscillate upwards [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly increasing. The bottle - chip industry plans to reduce production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to关注 opportunities to expand processing fees on dips [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and non - aluminum downstream demand is poor. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to decline again. It is recommended that the 09 contract has limited downward space due to large discounts [79][80][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is consolidating at a low level. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has decreased. The fundamentals of PVC have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [84]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda - ash manufacturers has increased. The domestic soda - ash market is oscillating downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [85][86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei has remained stable. As the high - temperature and rainy season approaches, the demand for glass will decline seasonally, and the supply will remain stable. The spot price has room to decline, and the short - term rebound is difficult to sustain [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent years, the demand for pure benzene has shown double - digit growth, significantly higher than other bulk chemicals. The compound annual growth rate from 2019 - 2024 was 14.6%. However, due to changes in the industrial ecosystem, the future demand growth rate of pure benzene may decline, with an estimated growth rate of 5 - 7% from 2025 - 2029 [1][86][87] - The high growth of pure benzene demand in the past five years was mainly due to import substitution, large - scale capacity expansion of direct and indirect downstream industries, and the alignment of terminal demand with the country's new productive forces and industrial transformation and upgrading [25] - In the medium - to - long term, the contribution of import substitution to demand growth will decrease, and the actual demand increment from future capacity expansion may be dominated by terminal demand. But the terminal demand for pure benzene still has certain support due to the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry [3][39][87] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent High - Growth State of Pure Benzene Demand and Its Incremental Sources - Pure benzene has many direct and secondary downstream products, with a wide range of terminal applications. From 2019 - 2024, the annual consumption of pure benzene in China nearly doubled, with an annualized compound growth rate of 14.58%. The production of its five major downstream products also showed double - digit growth [13][18][25] - The high growth of pure benzene demand in the past was mainly driven by downstream industry import substitution, large - scale capacity expansion of direct and indirect downstream industries, and the alignment of terminal demand with the country's new productive forces and industrial transformation and upgrading [25] 3.2 Remaining Potential of Downstream Industry Import Substitution - From 2019 - 2024, the import dependence of the pure benzene downstream industry decreased significantly, and the overall structure shifted from a net importer to a net exporter. The import substitution contributed an annualized compound growth rate of about 5 - 6% to pure benzene demand [27] - Currently, the remaining import volume available for substitution is less than 2 million tons (calculated by pure benzene unit consumption), and the substitution difficulty has increased. The future import substitution may contribute an annualized compound demand growth rate of about 1.2%. The focus will gradually shift to export expansion, but the incremental estimate is not overly optimistic [28][32] 3.3 Maturity of the Downstream Industrial Chain Ecosystem and Terminal - Dominated Incremental Demand - From 2019 - 2024, the capacity of the five major direct downstream and indirect downstream industries of pure benzene expanded significantly, with high compound growth rates. The integration of the downstream industrial chain deepened, providing a buffer for upstream capacity expansion [33][36] - Currently, the pure benzene downstream industry is mostly in the mature stage, with saturated competition and the disappearance of excess profits. Although there is still a lot of planned capacity expansion in the future, the actual demand increment may be dominated by terminal demand [39] 3.4 Support for Pure Benzene Terminal Demand from China's Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading - The demand for pure benzene related to the construction and real - estate sector accounts for about 10%. The demand structure of some downstream products has adjusted, reducing the proportion of real - estate demand. The terminal demand is mainly from electrical machinery and equipment, transportation equipment, and other fields [52][83] - China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading will drive the demand for pure benzene downstream derivatives. These derivatives have good comprehensive mechanical properties, which are more suitable for high - end manufacturing. Also, due to their relatively small market base, the growth potential is greater [67][69] - The demand growth rate of nylon (PA6) in the pure benzene downstream industry is higher than that of polyester. The development of outdoor activities and the outdoor economy will continue to drive the development of the pure benzene - caprolactam - PA6 industrial chain [79][80] 3.5 Summary: Future Growth Rate of Pure Benzene Demand - The future demand growth rate of pure benzene will decline compared to the past five years, but it will still be higher than most chemical products. The estimated growth rate from 2025 - 2029 is around 5 - 7% [86][87][88]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week of June 13, 2025, the top - rising commodities were concentrated in energy products, while the top - falling ones were in non - ferrous metals and the building materials chain. The style rotation showed multiple configurations in Nanhua industrial products in the industrial products/agricultural products and precious metals/industrial products styles, and long on oil in the gold/oil ratio. The strength order of commodity sectors was estimated as energy > precious metals > chemicals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > ferrous metals [1][2]. - Overseas, at the beginning of the week, the market continued to price the easing of Sino - US trade relations, but the Middle - East geopolitical conflict flared up again. Domestically, the inflation and financial data in May were below expectations, with weak imports and strong exports [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Commodity Market Performance - As of June 13, 2025, the top - rising domestic commodities were INE crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., while the top - falling ones were soda ash, urea, zinc, etc. [6] 3.2 Sector Style Rotation - The 10 - year US Treasury yield, as a global interest - rate anchor, has a significant guiding effect on asset valuation and style rotation. For equity index styles, its real yield is consistent with the long - term trend of the ratio of the growth index to the cyclical index. For commodity sector index styles, it is also consistent with the long - term trend of the ratio of the Nanhua precious metals index to the Nanhua industrial products index [8][13]. - During the week, the cycle/growth style rotated to under - allocate growth; the industrial products/agricultural products style rotated to over - allocate Nanhua industrial products; the precious metals/industrial products style rotated to over - allocate Nanhua industrial products; and the gold/oil ratio rotated to over - allocate oil [2][13]. 3.3 Performance of Arbitrage Spread Pairs - The three arbitrage pairs with the relatively strongest performance during the week were the spread of the PP - 3*MA main contract, the spread of the L - PP main contract, and the spread of the rapeseed oil - palm oil main contract. The three with the relatively weakest performance were the copper - oil main contract ratio, the P/SC main contract ratio, and the Y/SC main contract ratio [2][14]. - Data on the latest values, weekly changes, one - year valuations, and two - year valuations of various arbitrage pairs are provided in the report [15].