电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 5 月 15 日 002202.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 9.32 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (6.9) 14.4 2.4 15.9 相对深圳成指 (8.9) 9.7 5.6 9.6 发行股数 (百万) 4,225.07 流通股 (百万) 4,128.40 总市值 (人民币 百万) 39,377.63 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 422.47 主要股东 香港中央结算(代理人)有限公司 18.28% (18%) (6%) 7% 20% 32% 45% May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 金风科技 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 5 月 13 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《金风科技》20240829 《金风科技》20240403 《金风科技》20230827 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on the AI industry chain and robotics, which are expected to initiate a second round of rebound trends [6] - The telecommunications sector shows resilience with continuous revenue and profit growth among the three major operators, indicating a shift from traditional communication services to digital services [7][9] - Industrial Fulian is experiencing steady growth in revenue and profit, driven by optimized product structure and robust performance in cloud computing [11][12] - Demingli is poised for accelerated growth due to significant revenue increases and high-end product breakthroughs in the storage market [14][15] Telecommunications Sector - The three major telecom operators (China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom) achieved revenue of 6,268 billion, 3,282 billion, and 2,613 billion CNY respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 3.0%, and 1.5% [7] - The operators are transitioning towards digital services, with cloud revenue exceeding 1,000 billion CNY for each operator, reflecting a shift from "network connection" to "intelligent connection" [7][9] - In 2024, the combined revenue of the three operators surpassed 1.9 trillion CNY, with a net profit of 1,804 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 5.9% respectively [9] Industrial Fulian - In 2024, Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 6,091.35 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 27.88%, and a net profit of 232.16 billion CNY, up 10.34% [11] - The cloud computing segment achieved a revenue of 3,193.77 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 64.37% and accounting for over 50% of the company's total revenue [12] - The company is focusing on high-performance AI servers, which saw revenue growth exceeding 150% [12][13] Demingli - Demingli's revenue for 2024 reached 47.73 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 168.74%, with a net profit of 3.51 billion CNY, up 1,302.30% [14] - The company is expanding its high-end storage product offerings, which are expected to drive rapid growth in both scale and profitability [15][16] - The storage market is anticipated to stabilize and gradually recover in 2025, driven by emerging demands in AI and automotive electronics [16]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the second round of rebound in the technology sector, particularly in the AI and robotics industries, is expected to gradually commence [1][3][7] Market Environment - Recent substantial progress in US-China tariff negotiations has been noted, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar reduction, which is expected to reduce market uncertainty and enhance risk appetite [4] - The domestic monetary policy has also shifted towards a more accommodative stance, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, signaling a supportive environment for growth [4] Performance Metrics - From May 1 to May 13, the AI index and robotics index rebounded by 2.78% and 5.64% respectively, indicating a positive trend in these sectors [3] - The AI industry reported a remarkable revenue growth of 40.30% in Q1 2025, significantly outperforming the overall market, which saw a decline of 0.41% [5] Sector Analysis - The AI industry chain is showing strong performance across various segments, particularly in computing infrastructure, AI edge devices, and related technologies such as copper connections, optical communications, and storage solutions [5] - The robotics sector is also recovering from a short-term adjustment, with signs of improved performance as tariff reductions enhance China's competitive advantage in the global robotics supply chain [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The telecom operators demonstrate resilient performance with continuous revenue and profit growth despite external pressures, marking a transition from "network connection" to "intelligent connection" [1]. - The operators are benefiting significantly from the AI wave, particularly through intelligent computing business growth and value reassessment, positioning them as defensive growth assets within the AI chain [3]. - The traditional telecom business remains a major revenue source, with projected revenues for 2024 being CNY 626.8 billion for China Mobile, CNY 328.2 billion for China Telecom, and CNY 261.3 billion for China Unicom, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.8%, 3.0%, and 1.5% respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance and Growth - The telecom operators have achieved a significant milestone with cloud services exceeding CNY 100 billion, indicating a shift towards digital services [1]. - In 2024, the intelligent computing scale for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom is expected to reach 29.2, 35, and 17 EFLOPS respectively, with cloud revenues projected to be CNY 100.4 billion, CNY 113.9 billion, and CNY 68.6 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 20.4%, 17.1%, and 7.4% [3][4]. - The international business is also accelerating, with revenues for 2024 expected to be CNY 22.8 billion, CNY 16.9 billion, and CNY 12.5 billion for the three operators, reflecting growth rates of 10.2%, 15.4%, and 15.2% respectively [3][4]. Capital Expenditure and Investment - The capital expenditure (Capex) for 2025 is projected to be CNY 151.2 billion for China Mobile, CNY 55 billion for China Unicom, and CNY 83.6 billion for China Telecom, with reductions of 7.8%, 10.4%, and 10.6% respectively [3][4]. - Despite the reduction in Capex, the operators are committed to increasing investments in computing power, indicating a strong determination to transform and enhance core competitiveness [3][4]. Financial Stability and Dividends - The operators have consistently reported revenue and profit growth, with total revenue exceeding CNY 1.9 trillion and net profit reaching CNY 180.4 billion in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 5.9% [3][4]. - The dividend payout remains high, with a total proposed dividend exceeding CNY 60 billion for 2024, and payout ratios of 73%, 72%, and 54.7% for China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom respectively, with commitments to gradually increase these ratios [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in revenue and net profit, with a projected revenue of RMB 609.14 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.88%, and a net profit of RMB 23.22 billion, up 10.34% year-on-year [8] - The cloud computing segment is anticipated to show strong growth, with revenue expected to exceed RMB 3.19 trillion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 64.37%, marking a significant contribution to overall revenue [8] - The company is focusing on advanced product development and has a diversified performance elasticity that is expected to accelerate [5] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 756.42 billion, with a growth rate of 24.2% [7] - The expected net profit for 2025 is RMB 29.37 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 26.5% [7] - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be RMB 39.10 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.0 times [5][7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.28%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately RMB 382.68 billion [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth with a focus on optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency, supported by strong performance in its cloud computing and telecommunications segments [3][8] - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be RMB 609.14 billion and RMB 23.22 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.88% and 10.34% [8] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of RMB 7,564.19 billion, RMB 9,126.78 billion, and RMB 10,552.89 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][7] Financial Summary - The company’s main revenue for 2023 is RMB 476.34 billion, with a projected growth rate of 27.9% for 2024 [7][25] - The EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be RMB 32.23 billion, with a net profit of RMB 23.22 billion [7][25] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.48, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.0 [5][25] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.28%, with a net profit margin of 3.81% [8][25] Business Segments - The cloud computing segment is anticipated to show robust growth, with revenues expected to exceed RMB 3,193.77 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 64.37% [8] - The telecommunications and mobile network equipment segment is also projected to grow steadily, with revenues of RMB 2,878.98 billion in 2024 [8] - The company is focusing on AI server products, which have seen revenue growth exceeding 150%, becoming a core growth driver [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 126.11 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue and profit growth in 2024, driven by a recovery in storage market prices and breakthroughs in high-end products, indicating potential for accelerated growth [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in storage prices and an expanding downstream market, with strategic planning likely to yield results in the medium to long term [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 4,773 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 168.7%, and a net profit of RMB 351 million, up 1,302.3% year-on-year [8][9]. - For 2025, the company is projected to generate revenues of RMB 7,263 million and a net profit of RMB 526 million, with corresponding PE ratios of 38.8 [6][8]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 17.75%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.35%, up 5.94 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Market Dynamics - The storage market is expected to stabilize and gradually recover in 2025, with emerging demands from AI and automotive electronics driving growth [9]. - The company is positioned to leverage the trend of domestic storage product localization, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4][6] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to a reduction in supply chain business scale and asset impairment losses. However, the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery in operating quality and profitability [4][9] - Future profitability is expected to rebound as non-recurring impairment losses decrease and core business profitability stabilizes [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 354.44 billion, a decrease of 24.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 626 million, down 67.33% year-on-year [4][9] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 70.53 billion, a decline of 27.19% year-on-year, but a net profit of RMB 422 million, an increase of 2.76% year-on-year [4][9] Profitability Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 1.27 billion, RMB 1.55 billion, and RMB 1.97 billion, representing growth rates of 103.6%, 21.8%, and 27.2% respectively. The expected EPS for these years are RMB 0.59, RMB 0.72, and RMB 0.91 [6][8] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on high-value-added services in its supply chain business and accelerating international expansion by establishing branches in countries like Vietnam and Germany [9] - The health technology segment showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 49.61% to RMB 1.10 billion, with significant overseas revenue contribution [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4][6] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to a reduction in supply chain business scale and asset impairment losses. However, the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery in operating quality and profitability [4][9] - Future profitability is expected to rebound as non-recurring impairment losses decrease and core business profitability stabilizes [4][6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 354.44 billion, a decrease of 24.30% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 626 million, down 67.33% [4][9] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 70.53 billion, a decline of 27.19% year-on-year, but a net profit of RMB 422 million, an increase of 2.76% [4][9] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 1.27 billion, RMB 1.55 billion, and RMB 1.97 billion, representing growth rates of 103.6%, 21.8%, and 27.2% respectively [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to RMB 0.59, RMB 0.72, and RMB 0.91, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.9, 8.9, and 7.0 [6][8] - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected at RMB 3.07 billion, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years [8][9] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain management and international expansion, with plans to establish branches in countries like Vietnam and Germany [9] - The health technology segment is expected to grow, with a 49.61% increase in revenue to RMB 1.10 billion in 2024 [9]

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on several key stocks, including SF Holding (002352.SZ), Jitu Express (1519.HK), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [1] - The report tracks the quarterly movements of "national team" funds, showing an increase in their stock holdings and a preference for the financial sector, while reducing exposure in TMT and real estate sectors [5][6] Company Summaries Jietong Technology - Jietong Technology reported a revenue of 1.579 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 4.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 31 million yuan, down 72.04% [7] - Despite the decline, the "smart + energy-saving" parking industry has significant growth potential, and the company is expected to achieve rapid development through its marketing network and technological innovations [7][8] Hengsheng Electronics - Hengsheng Electronics achieved a revenue of 6.581 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.6%, with a net profit of 1.043 billion yuan, down 26.8% [12] - The company faces short-term performance pressure but is expected to benefit from the digital transformation in finance and the release of incremental demand due to AI technology enhancements [12][15] Industry Performance - The banking sector showed a positive growth of 1.52%, while the defense and military industry declined by 3.07% [4] - The computer and electronic sectors also experienced declines of 0.80% and 0.64%, respectively, indicating a challenging environment for these industries [4]