Core Insights - The current bond market is in a bottoming phase characterized by a converging triangle pattern and insufficient long positions, suggesting investors should wait patiently for opportunities to gradually accumulate positions when the 10-year government bond yield is in the range of 1.80-1.85% [1][2][27] Historical Context of Bond Market Bottoming - Historically, the bond market has experienced a smooth downward trend followed by prolonged bottoming phases, as seen in early 2015 and before 2019, which eventually led to new downward trends in yields. The current situation in 2025 shows similarities but lacks the stability in high and low points seen in previous bottoming phases, indicating a converging range and insufficient long positions [1][9][11] Current Stage of the Bond Market - The bond market is currently at a stage where the converging triangle pattern indicates a lack of momentum for further price movement in either direction, suggesting a potential re-evaluation of direction. Positive signals include the duration of the current bottoming phase, which has lasted about 7 months, and a recovery in long sentiment in government bond futures as of September 11 [2][28][27] Technical Analysis and Market Signals - The technical analysis indicates that the converging triangle pattern typically signifies a lack of strong momentum, leading to a potential directional choice ahead. The bond market has shown signs of recovery in trading volume and sentiment, with a notable increase in positions across various futures contracts [2][28][30] Economic and Monetary Policy Context - The economic environment in 2025 is comparable to that of early 2015 and 2019, with a slow recovery in the economy and weak financing demand from both households and enterprises. The GDP growth is expected to remain around 5%, supporting a downward trend in bond yields. Additionally, the monetary policy remains accommodative, with recent rate cuts and liquidity injections providing a supportive backdrop for the bond market [13][19][27] Equity Market Performance - The equity market has shown structural differentiation, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks across different periods. In 2025, the market has seen significant gains in mid and small-cap sectors, indicating a trend where growth outperforms traditional sectors, which aligns with historical patterns observed in previous years [23][27]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the CSI 300 increased by 2.3%, the STAR Market 50 surged by 5.3%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index gained 5.1%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.4% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were telecommunications (+7.4%), electronics (+6.0%), computers (+3.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+2.7%), and non-bank financials (+2.6%). The worst-performing sectors included textiles and apparel (+0.1%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.2%), social services (+0.2%), transportation (+0.2%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (+0.3%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 24,377 billion, with a net inflow of 18.99 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than market expectations and previous predictions, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [5] - The market anticipates that the effects of "anti-involution" will manifest quickly, with a gradual impact on prices [5] - Future solutions to trade friction should focus on "win-win cooperation," encouraging Chinese companies to partner with local firms abroad and promoting foreign investment in domestic enterprises [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The beef import market is characterized by high concentration, dominated by South America and growing imports from Australia [4][18] - In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports are expected to decline in volume but increase in price, with a total import of 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% and an average price of 18.39 yuan per jin, an increase of 8.4% [4][40] - Import policies are tightening, with increased tariffs and stricter qualification requirements for importers, particularly affecting U.S. beef imports [4][59] Summary by Sections 1. Major Beef Import Countries - The top six countries accounted for over 93% of total beef imports in 2023-2025H1, with Brazil leading at 46%, followed by Argentina and Australia [4][14] - Australia has become the third-largest beef supplier to China, benefiting from the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement and U.S.-China trade tensions [4][26] 2. Changes in Beef Imports - In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports are projected to decrease in volume while prices rise, reflecting a tightening supply from overseas and an upgrade in domestic consumption [4][40] - The average price of imported beef has increased due to tightening global supply, reducing the price advantage of imported beef over domestic products [4][42] 3. Investment Recommendations - With the expected decline in import volumes and tightening import policies, domestic beef prices are likely to rise, benefiting high-quality livestock companies [4][59] - Companies such as YouRan MuYe, Modern MuYe, and China Shengmu are recommended for their potential to capitalize on rising beef prices [4][59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The report suggests that the new game "Delta Operation" will exceed market expectations, and that features like Video Accounts and Search will continue to drive Tencent's advertising business to achieve growth above the industry average [1][2] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights that Tencent's gaming and advertising businesses are perceived to be in a mature phase, with challenges in achieving growth above the industry average due to a high base in 2024. However, the new game "Delta Operation" is expected to outperform market expectations due to its established game genre and social attributes, which enhance player engagement [2][3] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Tencent's core competitive advantage lies in its social traffic entry points and its leading understanding of the gaming industry. WeChat has nearly 1.411 billion monthly active users as of the first half of 2025, serving as a primary social entry point in China [3] Recent Market Trends - The report reviews Tencent's recent market performance, noting that from March 2024 to the present, the company has benefited from macroeconomic conditions, liquidity easing, and the recovery of game licenses, leading to revenue growth from key titles [4] Comparison with Overseas Leaders - Tencent's valuation is compared with overseas gaming companies, indicating that its current P/E ratio is lower than that of major U.S. gaming firms and internet advertising platforms like Meta and Google [5] AI Industry Trends - Tencent is actively investing in AI to enhance advertising precision and efficiency. The report notes that AI applications in gaming and advertising are expected to drive further growth [6][10] Performance Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Tencent's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 749.96 billion, 834.45 billion, and 924.65 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 262.07 billion, 293.55 billion, and 323.79 billion yuan respectively. The target price for 2026 is set at HK$793.08 per share, indicating a potential upside of 25% [12][13]

Group 1: Economic Signals from Euro and Japan - Recent attempts to constrain fiscal discipline in Europe and Japan have failed, leading to weakened international capital confidence in these regions[1] - Long-term bond yields in France rose from 4.16% on August 1 to 4.45% on September 1, a widening of 10 basis points compared to the 10-year bond[2] - In the UK, 30-year bond yields increased from 5.35% to 5.64%, widening by 9 basis points, due to economic slowdown and increased public spending[2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Resilience - Despite weak employment data, the U.S. economy may be stronger than expected, with private non-residential investment contributing 30.4% to Q2 GDP growth[8] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, but the labor market has not shown signs of recession, with the Labor Market Stress Index (LMSI) at 8, well below the 30 threshold indicating recession risk[9] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may be overly optimistic, with inflation risks still present and economic resilience expected to continue[10] Group 3: Currency and Investment Outlook - The U.S. dollar and Nasdaq are expected to perform well, while the RMB may appreciate against the dollar, indicating a dual bullish trend for both currencies[13] - International capital's confidence in Europe and Japan has weakened due to unfavorable trade negotiations, reinforcing the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism[4] - The U.S. is positioned to benefit from foreign investment commitments of $600 billion and $550 billion from Europe and Japan, respectively, enhancing economic growth prospects[7]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 11 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 09 月 11 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商电子 王凌涛/沈钱】四会富仕（300852）公司深度：工控复苏叠加机器人全新增量，海内外扩产落定增长 渐现雏形——20250910 重要点评 浙商早报 1 市场总览 1、大势 9 月 10 日上证指数上涨 0.13%，沪深 300 上涨 0.21%，科创 50 上涨 1.09%，中证 1000 上涨 0.06%，创 业板指上涨 1.27%，恒生指数上涨 1.01%。 【浙商电新 邱世梁/黄华栋】电池 行业深度：固态中试线加速落地，各材料环节全面升级——20250910 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：9 月 10 日上证指数上涨 0.13%，沪深 300 上涨 0.21%，科创 50 上涨 1.09%，中证 1000 上涨 0.06%，创业 板指上涨 1.27%，恒生指数上涨 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2] Core Views - The report indicates a recovery in the industry, marking a turning point for allocation strategies [6] - The financial data and order trends suggest that the CXO sector has reached a fundamental turning point and is in a phase of continuous recovery [63] Summary by Sections Stock Price Review - Domestic performance shows a significant increase in the medical research outsourcing index, which rose by 60.41% from December 31, 2024, to September 4, 2025, outperforming the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index by 36.15 percentage points [4] - Internationally, there is a general upward revision of performance forecasts, with signs of demand recovery. Medpace showed the largest upward adjustment in its 2025 guidance [4][17] Financial Analysis - Growth: The year-over-year (YOY) revenue trend is improving, with the average YOY revenue growth for CXO companies reaching 8.2% in Q1 2025 and 11.6% in Q2 2025 [26] - Profitability: The average gross margin in Q2 2025 was 32.45%, showing a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points YOY. Some companies like Medpace and Boten Co. saw significant improvements in their margins [33] - Operational Efficiency: Inventory turnover improved from 1.56 in H1 2024 to 1.81 in H1 2025, indicating enhanced operational efficiency driven by increased capacity utilization [35] Thoughts and Outlook - PE/VC financing in the healthcare sector has stabilized at a low point, with a slight decline in absolute values for Q2 2025 compared to previous quarters, but ongoing improvements in global IPOs and business development transactions are expected to drive demand recovery [47] - IPO financing in the A-share and US markets has stabilized, while Hong Kong's market has seen a significant rebound, with HK IPO amounts reaching 20.7 billion HKD in 2025 [52] - The construction of new projects remains high, indicating optimistic expectations for capacity expansion among CXO companies, with a focus on new business areas such as ADCs and oligonucleotides [56] Investment Strategy - The report recommends investing in CDMO opportunities driven by the continued realization of commercial orders for small and large molecules, as well as clinical CRO opportunities supported by domestic innovation drug policies [63] - Key companies to watch include WuXi AppTec, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and others in the small molecule and large molecule CDMO sectors [63]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 93.35% and a 35.2% increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the continued expansion in the shipbuilding industry, increased sales in the diesel engine segment, and effective cost control measures [1][3] - The company has a strong order book, with new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 amounting to 339.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.42% [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue reached 27.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 919 million yuan, up 93.35% [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 4.65 percentage points year-on-year in H1 2025, with a gross margin of approximately 16.49% [3] - The revenue breakdown by business segments shows that the diesel power segment generated 139.68 billion yuan, a 27.25% increase year-on-year, accounting for 50.52% of total revenue [2] Market Outlook - The shipbuilding cycle is on an upward trend, with demand for various ship types increasing, which is expected to improve the profitability of shipyards [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tight supply-demand relationship in the ship engine market, as it is a leading player in the industry [10] - The after-market service for diesel engines presents a significant growth opportunity, with the company expanding its global service network [10][11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of approximately 600 billion yuan, 681 billion yuan, and 757 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 21.4 billion yuan, 30.1 billion yuan, and 37.7 billion yuan for the same years, with a CAGR of 39% [12] - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 23, 16, and 13, respectively [12]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Timing Model for Nonferrous Metals - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses macroeconomic scoring to time the allocation between the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index and the Wind All A Index, leveraging the dominant role of copper and other industrial metals in the nonferrous metals sector[19][20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The macroeconomic score for copper is calculated based on global economic and inflationary factors - Allocation Rule: - If the macro score > 0, allocate to the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index - Otherwise, allocate to the Wind All A Index - Backtesting Period: March 2009 to September 2025 - Formula: Not explicitly provided, but the scoring system is based on historical macroeconomic data[19][20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong timing ability, capturing the upward trends in the nonferrous metals sector, except during 2012-2013 when the sector underperformed despite a bullish signal[20] 2. Model Name: Comprehensive Allocation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy dynamically allocates weights to industries based on their economic cycle signals (upward, flat, or downward) and crowding levels, with flat-cycle industries receiving half the weight of upward-cycle industries[35] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify industries with upward or flat economic cycle signals - Exclude industries with high crowding levels - Assign weights: - Upward-cycle industries: Full weight - Flat-cycle industries: Half weight - Monthly updates based on the latest signals[35] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy underperformed its benchmarks in the most recent month, suggesting potential limitations in capturing short-term market dynamics[35] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing Model for Nonferrous Metals - **Excess Return**: 245% relative to the Wind All A Index during the backtesting period (March 2009 - September 2025)[20] 2. Comprehensive Allocation Strategy - **1-Month Return**: 4.6% - **Excess Return vs. Equal-Weighted Index**: -5.7% - **Excess Return vs. CSI 800**: -3.9%[35][39] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Macroeconomic Score for Copper - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the economic and inflationary environment to assess the attractiveness of copper as a leading indicator for the nonferrous metals sector[19][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Historical macroeconomic data is used to calculate a score for copper - The score ranges from negative to positive, reflecting unfavorable to favorable conditions[21] - Formula: Not explicitly provided, but the scoring system is derived from macroeconomic indicators[21] 2. Factor Name: Sector Crowding Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the crowding level in various sectors to identify potential risks of over-concentration[32][34] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the crowding level for each sector based on historical trading data - Identify sectors exceeding the 95% warning threshold[32][34] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Macroeconomic Score for Copper - **Latest Score**: 4, indicating a historically high level of attractiveness for the nonferrous metals sector[19][21] 2. Sector Crowding Indicator - **Sectors Above 95% Threshold**: Nonferrous Metals, Electronics, Communication, Machinery, Comprehensive, Beauty & Personal Care, Defense, and Pharmaceuticals[32][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic robotics firm, with an upward turning point in its motion control business. The acquisition by Haier is expected to accelerate the implementation of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Exceeding Expectations - The market perceives the company's growth and profitability as weak. However, the company is a leader in control technology with strong product iteration capabilities. It ranks second globally in elevator controllers and fourth in domestic SCARA industrial robot shipments. The company has pioneered domestic replacements in automation products and achieved integration in robot drive control [2] - Haier's acquisition is expected to benefit the company as it continues to push for embodied intelligence. Haier has established a robotics division, initiated a 10 billion yuan investment fund for embodied intelligence, formed an innovation alliance, and launched household robots [2][31] - The company plans to launch an embodied intelligent welding solution in September 2025 and an intelligent controller by the end of 2025, with a focus on humanoid robots [3][37] 2. Management and Profitability Improvement - Haier's shareholding and voting rights in the company are expected to increase significantly, potentially raising its stake from 10% to 26.83% and voting rights from 29.24% to 42.47% after a planned capital increase [4][24] - Key management positions are held by members from Haier, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability through Haier's effective management model [5][29] 3. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.13 billion yuan, 0.84 billion yuan, and 1.90 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround and growth rates of 567% and 128% respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for this period is estimated at approximately 290% [11] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 949, 142, and 62 for the years 2025 to 2027 [11] 4. Revenue and Profit Structure - The company has three main business segments: elevator control, robot control, and general control and drive. In 2024, the revenue from these segments is expected to be 6.6 billion yuan, 15.9 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan respectively [14] - The gross margin for the elevator control segment is relatively high, with improvements noted in the margins for general control and robot segments [22]