Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant growth due to upcoming developments and market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The company has completed a leadership transition with a new chairman appointed in July 2025, which is expected to bring fresh strategic direction [1]. - The ongoing recruitment efforts in the overseas and payment sectors have successfully brought in high-caliber international talent, enhancing the company's operational capabilities [3]. - The launch of the global digital trade center is set to open in October 2025, with strong demand leading to increased prices and a growing concentration of businesses in the area [2]. - The partnership with Alibaba to initiate AI model testing marks a significant step in the company's digital transformation, with AI tools already showing substantial user engagement and efficiency improvements [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 indicate a robust growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 201 billion, 250 billion, and 290 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 25%, and 16% [4]. Summary by Sections Leadership Changes - The company completed a board leadership change in July 2025, with Chen Dezhan taking over as chairman and leading the strategic and ESG committee [1]. Market Development - The global digital trade center, covering 562 acres and with a total investment of 8.32 billion, is set to enhance market presence and operational capacity [2]. Talent Acquisition - The company has successfully onboarded high-end international talent in its overseas and payment sectors, with plans to continue attracting experienced professionals [3]. Digital Transformation - The collaboration with Alibaba on AI tools has resulted in over 1 billion uses of AI features on the Chinagoods platform, significantly improving operational efficiency for users [4]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates achieving revenues of 201 billion, 250 billion, and 290 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 43.53 billion, 61.42 billion, and 66.68 billion, indicating strong growth potential [4].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The macro view for August indicates a stable policy environment with an upward shift in risk appetite, suggesting that industrial growth will remain a key theme [7] - The strategy outlook highlights an "extension of offensive trends" in the market, with a recommendation to maintain positions and selectively increase holdings as the A-share market shows a bullish trend [8] - The quantitative perspective suggests breaking the deflationary spiral, with expectations for a cyclical upswing in the market [9] Group 2: Selected Stocks for August - The selected stocks for August include China Pacific Insurance (non-bank), China Shipbuilding Industry (military), Shanghai Yanpu (large manufacturing), Weilan Lithium (electric new energy), Wanjun Technology (computer), Guomai Culture (media), Baiwei Storage (consumer electronics), Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (non-ferrous), Sun Paper (light industry), and Tigermed (pharmaceutical) [11] - China Pacific Insurance is positioned as a leading insurance company with a strong background, expected to benefit from its transformation and increase in new business value [12] - China Shipbuilding Industry is identified as a leader in naval defense, benefiting from advancements in deep-sea technology and a growing market for underwater monitoring systems [17] - Shanghai Yanpu is noted for its potential in the seating market, with a platform transformation expected to enhance performance and market share [20] - Weilan Lithium is recognized for its robust main business and potential for valuation upgrades due to new product developments [25] - Wanjun Technology is highlighted for its long-standing expertise in creative software, with AI product commercialization expected to accelerate growth [28] - Guomai Culture is anticipated to benefit from the release of its animated film "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms," which is expected to drive revenue [32] - Baiwei Storage is positioned to benefit from the upward cycle in the storage industry, with a focus on advanced packaging technology [38] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals is expected to see price increases in tin and antimony, driven by strong demand and limited supply [43] - Sun Paper is projected to benefit from industry stabilization and cost advantages from its integrated operations [50] - Tigermed is positioned to gain from the growing demand for clinical CRO services as the innovative drug sector expands [55]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.2%, the CSI 300 dropped by 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.7% on Thursday [5][7] - The best-performing sectors included computers (+0.4%) and communications (+0.1%), while the worst performers were steel (-4.1%) and real estate (-3.1%) [5][7] - Total trading volume across the A-shares was 19,618 billion, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to 13.13 billion HKD [5][7] Key Recommendations - The report highlights Qiao Feng Intelligent (301603) as a domestic CNC machine tool leader, emphasizing its potential for high growth despite market cycles [8] - The Chinese machine tool market is valued at over 1 trillion, with low market concentration and significant room for domestic replacement of high-end machines currently dominated by foreign companies [8] - The company is positioned in high-demand sectors, with rapid growth in contract liabilities indicating strong future performance [8][9] Important Insights - The macroeconomic analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice within the year, with limited impact from recent political disturbances regarding the Fed Chair [11][12] - The report indicates a shift in the competitive landscape of the domestic machine tool industry from homogeneous competition to differentiated competition, enhancing the potential for exports [9] - The company is focusing on high-end products and has made significant technological breakthroughs, with contract liabilities showing substantial growth [9][10] Industry Analysis - The home appliance sector is experiencing a surge in MiniLED technology, with rapid penetration rates and improved profitability for brands [13] - The report anticipates that MiniLED products will drive brand performance beyond expectations, with catalysts including increased shipment rates [13] - However, there are risks associated with the pace of new product launches and cost reductions in MiniLED technology [13]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, indicating a weak recovery and potential peak in economic growth momentum[1] - The new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering a contraction zone, suggesting tightening market demand[13] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, still indicating overall expansion in production activities[27] Sector Performance - The production index for July is at 50.5%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points, but remains in the expansion zone for three consecutive months[3] - Equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.6%, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in these sectors[1] - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI is at 48.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, showing mixed performance across sectors[1] External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting cautious attitudes among foreign trade enterprises due to uncertainties in tariffs[16] - Port cargo throughput in July increased by 10.9% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in actual export volumes despite potential sustainability issues[17] Price Trends - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March, indicating improved market price levels[18] - The factory price index is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight recovery in manufacturing prices[18]

Core Insights - The report focuses on a trading timing strategy based on win rate, optimizing a multi-signal trading strategy structured around "trend identification, rhythm control, and signal integration" for interest rate futures T and TL [1][11][46] Group 1: Trading Timing Strategies - The report distinguishes between fundamental timing and trading timing, with fundamental timing focusing on macroeconomic factors and trading timing emphasizing market behavior and technical indicators [1][12] - A multi-signal strategy is proposed to enhance robustness, combining various sub-strategies to maintain signal stability and reduce trading frequency [3][45] Group 2: Sub-Strategies Overview - The report introduces several sub-strategies including low-latency trend identification, moment-based timing, single/double moving averages, channel filtering, and nine-turn sequence recognition [29][39][42] - Each sub-strategy is designed to address specific issues such as lagging signals and high-frequency noise, aiming for clearer structures and better adaptability in the interest rate futures market [28][30][38] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Backtesting results show that the multi-signal strategy for T yielded an annualized return of 8.63% with a Sharpe ratio of 3.04 and a win rate of 70.37%, while TL achieved an annualized return of 23.22% with a Sharpe ratio of 3.78 and a win rate of 80.77% [3][46][48] - The multi-signal strategy effectively mitigated significant drawdowns in February and July 2025, demonstrating strong defensive capabilities during volatile market conditions [47][48]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Standing at the end of July and looking forward to August, investors' sentiment for going long in the bond market has declined. The consensus has shifted from going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds to medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds. The money market and the equity market have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds and local government bonds has weakened marginally [1]. 3. Summary by Questionnaire Items Q2: 10 - year Treasury Yield Upper and Lower Limits in August - Regarding the lower limit, 45% of investors think it will likely fall within 1.60% - 1.65% (inclusive), 18% believe it will break below 1.60% (mostly in the 1.55% - 1.60% range), and about 37% think it will exceed 1.65%. - Regarding the upper limit, 51% of investors think it will likely fall within 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), about 14% think it will exceed 1.80%, and only 4% think it will be below 1.70%. - Conclusion: Investors' expectation of a rise in the 10 - year Treasury yield is increasing, but they are still cautious about it breaking key points. The bond market may face some emotional shocks in August, but the macro - fundamentals are in a weak recovery, the money market is stable, and the expectation of loose monetary policy remains unchanged [10]. Q3: 30 - year Treasury Yield Upper and Lower Limits in August - Regarding the lower limit, over 73% of investors think it will fall within 1.80% - 1.90% (inclusive), 18% think it will break above 1.90%, and only 8% think it will be below 1.80%. - Regarding the upper limit, about 56% of investors think it will fall within 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive), 24% think it will be in the 2.00% - 2.05% range, and about 9% think it will break above 2.05%. - Conclusion: Since July, the 30 - year Treasury yield has been rising, reaching a maximum of 1.998%. Investors' expectation of a further increase in the 30 - year Treasury yield is not high [14]. Q4: Economic Trend in the Third Quarter - 31% of investors are relatively optimistic about the economic trend in the third quarter, believing it will show "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth exceeding the seasonal level". - 24% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth in line with the seasonal level". - 34% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth weaker than the seasonal level". - 31% are relatively pessimistic, believing it will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month decline". - Conclusion: External factors may have some impact on the macro - economy in the third quarter, but the overall expectation of investors has not changed much, with the proportion of pessimistic expectations rising from 30% to 31% [15]. Q5: Next Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut and Interest Rate Cut Timing - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 43% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 47% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 9% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. - Regarding interest rate cuts, 41% of investors think there will be no cuts this year, 41% think the next cut may be in the fourth quarter, and 19% think it will be in August or the third quarter. - Conclusion: In July, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts have gradually weakened. Most investors tend to postpone potential cuts to a more distant policy window rather than August [17]. Q6: Impact of the Recent "Anti - Involution" Policy on the Bond Market - 71% of investors think the "anti - involution" policy will be negative for the bond market. - 43% think it will strengthen the stock - bond seesaw effect and suppress the bond market through capital diversion. - 28% think it will push up industrial product prices, intensify inflation expectations, and be negative for the bond market. - 17% think the policy's effect is limited, and the bond market is still dominated by fundamentals. - Conclusion: The "anti - involution" policy has some impact on the macro - economy and the bond market, but no obvious trend is seen. Most investors think it will be negative for the bond market, but some think the impact is short - term [18]. Q7: Bond Market Trend in August - 28% of investors think the bond market will strengthen in August, with 13% expecting a bullish steepening of the yield curve and 15% expecting a bullish flattening. - 31% of investors think the bond market will be weak. - 26% of investors think the bond market will show a divergence between the short - end and the long - end, with the short - end strong and the long - end weak. - 2% of investors think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. - Conclusion: Investors' consensus has shifted to going long on short - term bonds. The proportion of those thinking the bond market will strengthen is significantly lower than in June. Investors' judgments on the bond market are relatively evenly distributed [22]. Q8: Current Bond Market Operation - 33% of investors think they should hold cash and wait to add positions after the market corrects to the expected level. - 20% of investors think they can start adding positions now. - 19% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. - 14% of investors think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. - 14% of investors think they should keep the positions basically stable. - Conclusion: Most investors are neutral in practice. Holding cash and waiting is the mainstream view. The proportion of those thinking they can start adding positions has increased, indicating potential buying power in the bond market [23]. Q9: Most Favored Bond Types in August - Compared with June, investors' preference for ultra - long - term and long - term interest - rate bonds has decreased, while their preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased significantly. - The popularity of local government bonds and medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds has decreased. - Conclusion: Investors' consensus has shifted from long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds to medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds, and their preference for negotiable certificates of deposit has also increased [29]. Q10: Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in August - Monetary policy, the money market, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. - Investors' attention to fiscal policy and government bond issuance remains the same, while their attention to fundamentals and institutional behavior games has decreased. - Conclusion: The central bank's monetary policy stance and the money market trend are still the factors that investors focus on. This month, investors' attention to the equity market has increased significantly, while their attention to institutional behavior games and fiscal policy has decreased [30].

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 31 日 第一，风险偏好压制逻辑，高风偏资产分流债市资金；第二，通胀/滞涨预期逻辑， 部分债市机构投资者对于价格紧缩的信心出现实质性动摇；第三，情绪及脆弱性 扰动逻辑，当出现反内卷、权益上涨等行情驱动时，止盈或止损诉求均较强，调 整开始的初期担心及抢跑均较为严重。 ❑ 长期层面，债市反而可能演绎反转利多逻辑 第一，市场对于反内卷概念的预期可能自行纠偏；第二，需求政策配套预期可能 弱化，反内卷定价上可能走出"先定价通胀→后定价需求走弱"的利率反转下行 节奏；第三，中美谈判持续进行中，内需政策层面或还需走一步看一步。 ❑ 资产荒驱动配置盘买债的底层逻辑没有明显变化 在基于中期利率下行的判断下，波动依然对应做多机会，负债端较稳定的机构或 许合理把握本轮调整给予的空间。在本轮市场调整中，除了基金恐慌性抛售外， 其他配置型机构均明显增加了净买入力度，农商行承接利率债的意愿在市场调整 初期已有较为充分展现，普信债和二级债配置盘需求较弱但也有所展现，资产荒 驱动配置盘买债的底层逻辑没有明显变化。 ❑ 风险提示 如何看待债市 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 相机抉择，静待关税 ──7 月美联储议息会议传递的信号 核心观点 美联储本月继续按兵不动，在前瞻指引上继续维持相机抉择的政策立场，认为当前就 业和通胀两大目标维度均存在潜在风险，未来核心变量基本取决于关税的传导。 值得关注的是：本月两位票委对决议持反对意见支持降息 25BP，分别为特朗普提名的 Bowman 和 Waller（该情况自 1993 年以来首次出现），政治压力传导使得联储内部分 歧加大。展望未来，我们继续维持联储年内降息 2 次，并重点关注缩表可能暂停的前 期观点。 对于近期特朗普拟罢免鲍威尔的联储主席人选"风波"，我们更倾向于其是短期扰 动，对联储中期政策路径影响有限。首先，我们认为鲍威尔年内被解雇的风险有限， 市场本身的负反馈机制对特朗普形成明显制约。其次，即便小概率情形下鲍威尔遭遇 解雇，新任联储主席也未必会保持上任前后的"言行合一"，与特朗普配合执行其预想 中的货币宽松立场，潜在的通胀反弹压力仍将对联储中期的降息路径形成制约。 ❑ 联储继续按兵不动，"相机抉择"的核心要素基本取决于关税的影响 利率区间方面，美联储按兵不动符合会前市场定价，联邦基 ...

Market Overview - On July 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.02%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 1.11%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.82%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.62%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 1.36% [5] - The best-performing industries on July 30 were steel (+2.05%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.84%), media (+0.99%), food and beverage (+0.86%), and social services (+0.65%). The worst-performing industries included electric equipment (-2.22%), computers (-1.59%), automobiles (-1.27%), defense and military (-1.06%), and communications (-0.95%) [5] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on July 30 was 1,870.976 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 11.714 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [5] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Jinghua New Materials (603683) as a leading enterprise in adhesive new materials, with growth potential in electronic skin technology [6] - The recommendation logic is based on the expectation that the industrialization of electronic skin sensors will exceed expectations, driven by the domestic substitution of optical adhesive materials and the successful implementation of electronic skin technology [6] - Revenue projections for Jinghua New Materials from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2,233.66 million yuan, 2,636.90 million yuan, and 3,162.50 million yuan, with growth rates of 18.50%, 18.05%, and 19.93% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 82.30 million yuan, 120.78 million yuan, and 159.19 million yuan, with growth rates of 22.78%, 46.75%, and 31.80% respectively [6] Important Insights - The current redemption pressure in the bond market is primarily concentrated on the fund side, which has now entered the later adjustment phase. Investors are advised to wait for right-side signals [7] - Key indicators suggest that the current bond market redemption wave is in the later adjustment phase, with the 10Y government bond yield rising by 8 basis points, nearing the upper limit of adjustments seen in previous redemption waves [8] - Fund net selling has significantly decreased from a peak of 137.2 billion yuan to 17.1 billion yuan, indicating a notable alleviation of selling pressure [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rhythm of macro - policies may change in the second half of the year. The downward trend of treasury bond yields remains the general direction. The equity market is expected to have a long - bull market. The core of bond market trading lies in controlling the rhythm of band trading, and it is maintained that the third quarter is the window for going long in the bond market in the second half of the year [1][7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 730 Politburo Meeting Six Key Points of Concern 1. **Affirming the achievements of economic development in the first half of the year and a potentially stable and improving external environment** - In the first two quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% and 5.2% year - on - year respectively, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year. To achieve the 5% growth target, the GDP growth rate in the second half only needs to reach 4.7%, so the economic work pressure is relatively small [14]. - Compared with the April meeting, the external environment uncertainty has significantly decreased. The overall trend of the equal - tariff policy is clear, and Sino - US relations have continued to ease [15]. 2. **Macro - policies should be both continuous, stable and flexible** - Continuity and stability mean maintaining an actively expanding macro - policy to support the overall trend of the marginal improvement of the macro - economy [16]. - Flexibility and predictability aim to guide market expectations, and the possibility of policy discretion in the second half of the year may increase [16]. 3. **From "intensifying implementation" to "timely boosting", the policy rhythm may change** - In terms of rhythm, "timely boosting" reflects the difference in the macro - environment between April and July, and the flexibility of macro - policies will increase. The policy strength depends on the economic operation [18]. - In terms of quality, from "making full use" to "implementing in detail", the policy will shift from "expanding quantity" to "improving quality". Fiscal policy focuses on improving capital use efficiency, and monetary policy aims to promote the decline of social comprehensive financing costs [18][19]. 4. **Defining three major anti - involution tasks** - The tasks are to "govern the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, promote the capacity governance of key industries, and standardize local investment promotion behaviors". The policy determination of anti - involution should not be underestimated [4][20]. 5. **More positive statements about the capital market** - The meeting proposed to "enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidate the momentum of the capital market's recovery and improvement". The equity market is expected to have a long - bull market [5][21]. 6. **Focusing on urban renewal in the real estate field** - The meeting only mentioned "implementing the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference and carrying out high - quality urban renewal". The real estate market may still need further policy support [6][22]. Mapping to the Bond Market - In the process of promoting the decline of social comprehensive financing costs, the downward trend of treasury bond yields remains the general direction. With the increase in macro - policy flexibility, bond market fluctuations may expand. The core of bond market trading in the second half of the year lies in controlling the rhythm of band trading, and it is maintained that the third quarter is the window for going long in the bond market in the second half of the year [7][25].