2025年上半年，得益于财政前置发力、以旧换新显效、出口韧性强劲，中国经济实现了5.3%的较快增 长。但下半年以来，随着刺激政策效果减弱和高基数效应显现，经济增长动能放缓。作为"十五五"规划 的开局之年，2026年的经济工作备受关注。党的二十届四中全会重提"坚持以经济建设为中心"，预示着 经济增长将被置于更重要的位置。2026年宏观政策延续"更加积极有为"的基调，但更加注重提升效能。 2025年12月的中央经济工作会议提出，2026年要"坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策 集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能"。这意味着在保持一定政策力度的 基础上，2026年将更加注重政策的有效性。 2026年中国经济的有力支撑 (一)市场多元化与产品结构升级构筑出口韧性。尽管面临中美贸易不确定性，但2026年出口表现远超市 场预期，成为中国经济增长的重要支撑。2025年1月至11月，中国出口金额(以美元计价，下同)同比增 长5.4%，甚至高于2024年同期水平。世界贸易组织(WTO)数据显示，截至上半年，中国的全球出口份 额保持在14.2%的高位。 分地区看，尽管对美国出口降幅接近20%， ...

记者丨 边万莉 编辑丨周炎炎 2025年人民币兑美元汇率走出"先弱后强"的走势，从年初至4月初在7.30—7.35震荡偏弱，到4 月后迎来趋势性拐点由贬转升，年末离岸、在岸人民币汇率双双突破"7"这一关键心理关口， 分别创下2024年9月、2023年5月以来新高。 这一轮升值行情背后，是美元走弱、中国经济基本面稳健、年末结汇需求释放等多重因素的共 振助推，叠加出口韧性与人民币资产吸引力提升的合力支撑。 与此同时，"保持人民币汇率在 合理均衡水平上基本稳定"的政策基调已连续四年延续，央行2025年第四季度例会则进一步明 确防范汇率超调风险的导向。 展望2026年，在美联储降息预期、中国经济回升向好等利好因素与外部环境不确定性的交织作 用下，人民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，而是双向波动行情。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三大因素：中美两国 经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对外经贸关系的演进，其中，国内经 济恢复情况决定汇率双向波动的中枢方向。 多重因素共振助推破7 2025年以来，人民币对美元汇率呈现"先弱后强"的走势。从年初至4月初，人民币汇率震荡偏 弱， ...

支撑三：前期化债提速对投资的挤出效应或继续缓解，12月建筑业PMI明显回升。12月，建筑业PMI回升3.2个百分点至52.8%，特殊再融资债超发问题缓 解、增量政策落地等影响下，化债对投资的挤出效应边际弱化；房屋建筑活动、土木工程建筑业活动较前月上行；建筑业业务活动预期指数也保持在 57.4%的高位。 支撑四：出口仍保持韧性、对PMI形成拉动。12月内需订单指数上行1.6个百分点至51.1%。同时，新出口订单指数延续改善态势，12月上行1.4个百分点至 49%；高频指标方面，12月港口外贸货运量同比回升0.6个百分点至12%，保持较高水平；领先指标方面，加工贸易进口领先出口1个月，11月加工贸易进 口也明显回升，均指向外需韧性。 来源：赵伟宏观探索 事件：12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%，非制造业PMI为50.2%、前值49.5%。 核心观点：新动能、消费品行业拉动12月PMI，化债挤出效应缓解、出口韧性也有支撑。 12月高频指标转弱下，制造业PMI却明显回升。12月以来，高炉开工、PTA开工、货运量等高频指标均有走弱；但制造业PMI较前月回升0.9个百分 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December increased to 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from 49.2% in November, marking a return to the expansion zone after 9 months[1][7] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[1][7] Group 2: Key Support Factors - New momentum and consumer goods sectors contributed to the PMI rebound, with manufacturing PMI supported by a 1.7 percentage point rise in production and a 1.6 percentage point rise in new orders[2][8] - Emerging industries such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals saw PMI increases of 1.3 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, indicating improvement despite traditional sectors declining[2][11] - The construction PMI rose significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, reflecting a reduction in the crowding-out effect of debt on investment[3][16] - Export resilience was noted, with the new export orders index improving by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, while domestic orders increased by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%[4][20] Group 3: Sector Performance - The overall consumer goods PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, with notable recovery in textiles and apparel, which rose by 4.5 percentage points[3][14] - The service sector PMI improved slightly to 49.7%, with new orders and employment indices showing marginal increases[5][31] - The construction sector's new orders index rose by 1.3 percentage points to 47.4%, indicating a positive trend in demand[5][36] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that economic growth remains resilient, driven by new momentum and supportive fiscal policies, despite traditional sectors facing downward pressure[4][22] - Risks include potential changes in the external environment and the pace of growth policies not meeting expectations[5][38]

2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 12 月 PMI：重回扩张有何不寻常？ glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 31 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 事件：12 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 12 月中国采购经理指数运行情况。12 月份， 制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.1%，比上月上升 0.9 个百分点，升至扩张区 间。 12 月制造业 PMI 的"逆季节性"上升实属不易。不仅是时隔 8 个月、PMI 重回 扩张区间；更为关键的是，比起"春节效应"褪去后的 3 月 PMI 脉冲式升高，这 次 12 月 PMI 的"逆季节性"上升似乎含金量更足——受寒潮来袭、国内外节假 日等特殊因素影响，12 月 PMI 通常会季节性下降，但今年却环比逆势大幅上升 0.9pct、录得 50.1%的好成 ...

Consumption - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value of 2.9%[12] - Sales of "two new" products and real estate-related consumption continued to decline, with automotive consumption down 8.3% and home appliances down 19.4% year-on-year[12] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a gradual release of service consumption potential[14] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[23] - Real estate development investment fell by 31.4% year-on-year in November, a significant increase in the decline compared to the previous month's 23.2%[23] - Equipment purchase investment showed a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, rebounding from a previous decline of 1.1%[32] - Exports to the EU saw a significant recovery with a growth rate of 14.8%, while exports to the US decreased by 28.6%[32] - Imports rose slightly by 1.9% year-on-year, with notable increases in the import of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment[34]

离岸、在岸人民币对美元汇率分别升破7.03和7.04关口。 12月22日，人民币对美元即期汇率开盘报7.0408，午后小幅走强升破7.04关口，截至发稿盘中最高升至7.0369，创下去年10月以来的14个多月新 高。 更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率12月22日一度升破7.03关口，截至发稿盘中最高升至7.02955，创下去年10月3日以来的新高。 | IW | | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | 7.03185 | | 前收 | 7.03360 | | 7.03505 | | | -0.00175 -0.02% | | 英国 | 7.03186 | 型人 | 7.03184 | | | 反昌 | 7.03715 | 今年来 | -4.16% | 20日 | -1.05' | | | 最低 | 7.02955 | 10日 | -0.57% | 60日 | -1.37 | | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | EK | 月K | 同名 | | | 西加 ...

Consumption - In October 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of 3%[12] - Sales of "two new" products and real estate-related consumption declined, with automotive sales down 6.6% and home appliances down 14.6% year-on-year[12] - Service consumption showed strong performance, driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with food-related items growing by 8% year-on-year[13] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 11.2% in October, worsening from a previous decline of 6.8%[22] - Real estate development investment fell by 23.2% year-on-year in October, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments also saw declines of 6.7% and 12.1%, respectively[22] - Excluding real estate, project investment showed a cumulative growth of 1.7%, indicating that real estate investment dragged down overall investment by approximately 3 percentage points[22] Trade - In October, exports fell sharply with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, a drop of 9.4 percentage points from the previous value of 8.3%[37] - Exports to the U.S. improved slightly, with a year-on-year growth of -25.2%, while exports to the EU and Africa saw significant declines of 13.3% and 46.0%, respectively[38] - The electronics sector maintained high growth, with integrated circuits growing by 26.9% year-on-year, while labor-intensive products experienced significant declines[37] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added growth slowed down, with the PMI index showing a downward trend, indicating a potential seasonal disturbance and tariff volatility[7] - The overall industrial profit growth rate slowed, with financial costs being a significant drag on performance[7] - Despite the slowdown, major industrial indices remained in the expansion zone, reflecting overall market optimism[7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October, with core CPI continuing to rise, driven by strong food prices and holiday demand[7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing decline, with prices in the non-ferrous metals sector increasing significantly[7] - The real estate sector continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline in real estate development investment of 14.7% from January to October[7]

——美联储降息+出口强劲驱动，人民币升值背后的逻辑与策略 2025年12月15日，人民币兑美元汇率突然发力，在岸（CNY）与离岸（CNH）汇率双双升破7.05关口，创2024年10月8日以来新高。截至当日收盘，在岸人 民币报7.0505，较前一日上涨49点；离岸人民币盘中最高触及7.0381，日内最大涨幅超100点。以当前汇率计算，兑换1万美元可节省约3000元人民币（按年 内7.35的高点对比）。面对人民币的强势表现，投资者纷纷追问：现在换汇是否已错过最佳时机？未来汇率走势将如何演变？ 一、人民币狂飙的三大推手：美元走弱、政策托底、出口韧性 此次人民币快速升值是内外因素共振的结果： 1. 美联储降息落地，美元指数跌破10012月11日美联储宣布年内第二次降息25个基点，联邦基金利率降至3.5%-3.75%，美元指数同步跌破100关口，创2024年 9月以来新低。市场对2026年继续降息的预期升温，推动非美货币普遍走强。 人民币汇率突破7.05创14个月新高！换1万美元省3000元，现在换汇还来得及吗？ 2. 中国出口数据超预期，结汇需求激增11月中国出口同比增长5.7%，贸易顺差达1116.8亿美元，企业年 ...

政策驱动的内需活力，更成为IMF上调预期的重要依据。经合组织驻华代表海博用"韧性、转型、活力"概括中国经济，其背后是大规模设备更新和消费品以 旧换新政策的落地见效，这些举措直接拉动了消费增长。同时，技术创新催生的新动能不容忽视，低空经济等新兴领域的突破、装备制造业的快速发展，让 中国经济在传统产业调整期仍能保持增长弹性，这种结构性转型的力量，正是IMF看好中国经济的关键逻辑。 亚行的预测则显露出对中国经济的认知偏差，其将房地产低迷和"国内需求疲软"作为核心担忧，却忽略了中国经济的多元支撑。亚行首席代表奇马自身也承 认，中国供应链的适应力与贸易走廊建设成效显著，但亚行总部的预测框架仍过度聚焦短期风险。事实上，中国经济并非依赖单一引擎，前三季度5.2%的 增速中，内需贡献率已成为主力，出口的稳健增长与新兴产业的崛起更形成多重保障，亚行对这些积极因素的评估显然不足。 两家机构的预判差异，本质是观察视角的分野。IMF与经合组织更注重动态评估中国经济的自我修复能力与政策效能，而亚行则陷入"单一风险决定论"的误 区。从全球视角看，IMF将中国视为全球经济增长关键贡献者，与经合组织"年内三次上调预测"的行动形成呼应，这背后 ...