地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 02 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 02 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。合成橡胶涨近 ...

CBOT 1月豆油期货收涨0.31美分，结算价报每磅52.36美分。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） 期货止跌反弹 豆粕现货偏强上涨 1、CBOT豆类合约行情 周一CBOT大豆期货从一周高位回落，因缺乏新的对华大豆销售。 CBOT交投最活跃的1月大豆期货收跌9-3/4美分，结算价报每蒲式耳11.28美元，在早盘攀升至11月20日 以来最高的11.42-1/4美元后转跌。 CBOT 1月豆粕期货收盘下跌4.10美元，结算价报每短吨314.60美元。 2、大连豆粕期货市场 大连豆粕期货市场止跌反弹，主力合约2601价格低开收涨，收阳线，缩量减仓。开盘价3033元，收盘价 3045元，涨6元，最高价3048元，最低3029元，结算3038元，成交量494360，持仓量1164957。 3、豆粕现货市场 今日国内豆粕现货价格稳中偏强，局部上涨10元/吨。截至11月27日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为92.02 万吨， 当周对中国大陆的大豆出口检验量为0吨。截止10月23日当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售 净增144.98万吨，当周美国下一年度大豆出口销售净增0万吨。巴西农业投资公司分析师爱德华·瓦宁表 示，中国目前 ...

今日天然橡胶市场上涨，上海市场24年SCRWF意向成交价14850-15000元/吨，较前一交易日涨150元/ 吨；越南3L混合胶意向成交价15200-15300元/吨，较前一交易日涨75元/吨。期货盘面反弹运行，现货市 场价格跟随期货走高，下游制品刚需采买，市场成交一般。沪胶重心反弹，产区现货价格区间小涨。下 游买气表现一般，实盘小单交投为主。短期后市价格或区间震荡可能性较大。（卓创资讯） 2025年12月2日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。合成橡胶涨超4%，沪银、纸浆、焦炭、集运欧线涨超 2%，焦煤、纯碱涨超1%。跌幅方面，多晶硅、沥青、钯、铂、工业硅跌超2%。 来源：新浪网 | 中元 | 台豹名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 三角 | 三所 | 法格式 | ਦੇ ਜੀਤ | 中国 | 同交体 | 清洗 | 行き屋 | 日時合 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | r t | BRORIS 2601 M | 10685 | 1 | 10685 | 10590 | 3,9999 | 23 ...

| | | 合到 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 持仓量 | | | - 421#-通氧553价差 - 不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | SI2512 | 9155 | 0. 38 | 1674 | | | 一 通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价 - 421#硅(华东)-平均价 | | | | | | SI 2601 | 9145 | -0.16 | 203274 | 14000 | | | | 1000 | | | 市场 | SI2602 | 9140 | 00 | 52565 | 12000 | | | | | | | | SI 2603 | 9145 | -0.16 | 26444 | | | | | 800 | | | | SI 2604 | 9135 | -0. 11 | 12994 | 10000 | | | | | | | | 地区 点 | 牌号 | 价格 | 变化量 | 8000 | | | | 600 | | | | | 553 ...

2025 年 12 月 2 日 股指期货将震荡整理 白银、铜期货价格再创上市以来新高 铂、钯、多晶硅期货将偏弱宽幅震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4575 和 4600 点，支撑位 4535 和 4511 点；IH2512 阻力位 2990 和 3000 点，支撑位 2976 和 2963 点；IC2512 阻力位 7054 和 7112 点，支撑位 6974 和 6925 点；IM2512 阻 力位 7322 和 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2][5] - Silver: Accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [2][5] - Copper: Tight supply expectations lead to price increases [2][10] - Zinc: Supply cuts result in a volatile and bullish trend [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][20] - Aluminum: Strong performance [2][24] - Alumina: Consolidating at the bottom [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24] - Platinum: Volatile upward trend [2][27] - Palladium: Sideways consolidation [2][28] - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [2][31] - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [2][31] - Lithium carbonate: Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [2][36] - Industrial silicon: Volatile and bearish [2][39] - Polysilicon: The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [2][39] - Iron ore: Limited downstream demand and over - valued [2][42] - Rebar: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][46] - Hot - rolled coil: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][47] - Ferrosilicon: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Silicomanganese: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Coke: Wide - range volatility [2][55] - Coking coal: Wide - range volatility [2][56] - Logs: Low - level volatility [2][58] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 959.64, up 1.05%; the night - session closing price was 964.72, up 0.66%. The trend strength is 1. Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [5] - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 13282, up 4.46%; the night - session closing price was 13766.00, up 5.08%. The trend strength is 1. It is accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [5] Copper - The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 89,280, up 2.12%; the night - session closing price was 89380, up 0.11%. The trend strength is 1. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [10][12] Zinc - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22590, up 0.74%. The trend strength is 1. Supply cuts lead to a volatile and bullish trend [13] Lead - The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17075, down 0.09%. The trend strength is 0. Reduced inventory supports prices [16] Tin - The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 306,580, up 0.50%; the night - session closing price was 306,890, down 0.27%. The trend strength is 0. Supply is disrupted again [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1. Strong performance [24] - Alumina: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0. Consolidating at the bottom [24] - Cast aluminum alloy: The closing price of the main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1. Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24] Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: The trend strength is 1. Volatile upward trend [27][29] - Palladium: The trend strength is 0. Sideways consolidation [28][29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0. Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [31] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0. High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [31] Lithium Carbonate - The closing price of the 2601 contract was 95,120. The trend strength is 0. Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [36] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The closing price of Si2601 was 9,145. The trend strength is - 1. Volatile and bearish [39] - Polysilicon: The closing price of PS2601 was 57,705. The trend strength is - 2. The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [39] Iron Ore - The closing price of the 12601 contract was 801.0, up 0.88%. The trend strength is 0. Limited downstream demand and over - valued [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,134, up 1.16%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of HC2601 was 3,327, up 1.03%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 5466. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] - Silicomanganese: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 5724. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The closing price of J2601 was 1619.5, up 2.9%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] - Coking coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1093, up 2.4%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] Logs - Logs: Low - level volatility [58]

化工日报 | 2025-12-02 成本端反弹，PTA价格上涨 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，欧佩克+同意明年全集团保持产量稳定，八个主要产油国重申明年Q1 暂停增产，部分缓解油价压力，油价有所反弹。整体基本面对油价的驱动偏空。但制裁导致的市场分化依然存在， 需要考虑地缘与宏观事件对情绪面的扰动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN264美元/吨(环比变动+4.00美元/吨）。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重 整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持在高位，海外PX中高位持稳。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但PX负荷高 位以及个别装置扩能下PXN反弹空间也受限，关注调油情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -33元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+5元/吨），PTA现货加工费175元/吨（环比变动+5元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费263元/吨（环比变动+10元/吨），近期PTA检修集中，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA供需好转，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.5%（环比+0.2%）， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-02 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现震荡上行走势，延续近期在116,000-118,000元/吨区间震荡整理格局。收盘位于 20 日均线附近，该均线方向向下，中期趋势仍偏空。成交量显著放大，表明多空分歧加大，但未能形成明确突破。 近期，市场对美联储政策转向的流动性预期增强，美元指数承压，为镍价提供支撑。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场观望情绪主导，镍矿价格维稳运行。印尼矿山在菲律宾招标1.4%镍矿， 成交落地至50.5美元/吨，环比持平。菲律宾方面，矿山多履行前期订单出货为主，镍矿装船出货效率尚可。下游 镍铁价格表现弱势铁厂利润受挫，对原料镍矿采购多保持谨慎。部分铁厂已有减产止损的心理操作。印尼方面， 12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26，升水区间多在+25-26。整 体镍矿内贸价格有所下跌。受镍铁价格下跌影响，内贸升水亦有下行空间。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格122400元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨800元/吨。精炼镍交投尚可，各品牌精 炼镍现货升贴水稳中有跌。其中金川镍升水变化50元/ ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-02 烧碱下游下调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4553元/吨（+4）；华东基差-63元/吨（-4）;华南基差-53元/吨（-24）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4490元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4500元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+50）；电石利润-50元/吨（+50）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-9.2美元/吨（-4.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2212元/吨（-12）；山东32%液碱基差69元/吨（-51）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（-20）；山东50%液碱报价120 ...