1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, iron ore prices trended strongly. In the third quarter, global iron ore shipments contributed significant increments, with the mainstream mines' increments mainly from Brazil, while Australia's shipments were basically flat year-on-year. Non-mainstream shipments remained at a high level year-on-year and are expected to continue contributing certain increments. On the demand side, in August, infrastructure investment decreased by 5.9% year-on-year and continued to weaken rapidly month-on-month; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed significantly, failing to sustain the high growth in the first half of the year. Compared with the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak, and the recent month-on-month decline in steel demand in the manufacturing industry has suppressed the current terminal steel demand. Overseas, from January to July, the consumption of iron elements increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 9.8% year-on-year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level. Overall, terminal demand is weakening in China while overseas steel use maintains high growth, and the valuation of iron ore remains high among the black commodities. The year-on-year increase in domestic terminal steel demand in August may be the lowest point of the year, and the steel demand in the domestic manufacturing industry is expected to gradually recover in September. However, the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, and as market expectations fluctuate at high prices, iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels [3]. - Trading strategies: For single positions, focus on high-level hedging of spot; for arbitrage, adopt a wait-and-see approach; for options, also adopt a wait-and-see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Core Logic**: Terminal demand is showing a pattern of weakening in China and high growth overseas. The valuation of iron ore remains high, but prices may face pressure at high levels due to the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter not being priced in by the market [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single positions - high-level hedging of spot; Arbitrage - wait-and-see; Options - wait-and-see [3] 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipments**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.65 million tons, an increase of 0.7%/8.3 million tons year-on-year. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.62 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%/8.4 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments were 7.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%/8 million tons. In terms of the shipments of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil, since the beginning of 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 1.4%/3.2 million tons year-on-year, BHP's by 1.5%/3.1 million tons, FMG's have increased by 4.4%/6 million tons, and VALE's by 0.1%/0.2 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has been basically flat year-on-year. Last week, the shipments of mainstream mines in Brazil rebounded significantly as port maintenance ended and port shipments resumed. In the third quarter, most of the increments of mainstream mines came from Brazil, while Australia's shipments were basically flat year-on-year [11]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipments**: Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 5.6 million tons, an increase of 4.4%/8.7 million tons year-on-year. The weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments in Australia has been 2.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%/8 million tons, and that in Brazil has been 2.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%/8.2 million tons. A $10 increase in the average of the Platts Index corresponds to an increase of about 30 - 40 million tons in non - mainstream ore production (annualized). Since the third quarter, non - mainstream ore shipments have improved, and the rapid decrease in shipments in the first half of the year has turned into an increase. In September, shipments remained at a high level year-on-year and are expected to continue contributing certain increments. Currently, the profit from non - mainstream shipments is good, and some mines may participate in hedging [13]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased slightly month-on-month, and the amount of ships waiting at ports remained the same, but the steel mills replenished their stocks significantly, with the inventory increasing significantly year-on-year, resulting in a month-on-month increase of nearly 3 million tons in the total domestic inventory of imported iron ore. Since August, the total domestic inventory of iron elements has been continuously increasing, with an accumulation of about 9 million tons, mainly due to the high level of hot metal production and the decline in terminal steel demand, leading to a continuous weakening of the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore. From the perspective of supply - demand projection, hot metal production is expected to remain at a high level in September, but the growth rate may slow down. With the month-on-month improvement in the steel demand of terminal manufacturing, the port inventory of imported iron ore is expected to remain balanced [23]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3.9%/7.3 million tons year-on-year, and crude steel production has increased by 4.6%/10 million tons year-on-year. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 7.1%/7 million tons year-on-year, the apparent demand for non - building materials has decreased by 0.6%/0.7 million tons year-on-year, and domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.7%/7.8 million tons year-on-year. Recently, the terminal steel inventory in China has been increasing month-on-month, while it was decreasing during the same period last year. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year-on-year in the first half, but has weakened relatively quickly on a month-on-month basis since the third quarter, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. In terms of infrastructure, in August, the year-on-year growth rate of large - scale infrastructure investment was - 6.4% (previous value - 1.9%), and that of small - scale infrastructure investment was - 5.9% (previous value - 5.1%), with infrastructure investment continuing to weaken rapidly month-on-month. In terms of manufacturing, in August, the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3% (previous value - 0.3%), and the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed significantly, failing to sustain the high growth in the first half of the year. The year-on-year increase in domestic terminal steel demand in August may be the lowest point of the year, and the steel demand in the domestic manufacturing industry is expected to recover on a month-on-month basis in September [29]. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to July, the consumption of overseas iron elements increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 9.8% year-on-year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level [29].

Core Viewpoint - Propylene futures are experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a decline of 0.67% to 6400.0 yuan as of the latest report [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - In the week of September 12-18, 2025, China's propylene production reached 1.2029 million tons, an increase of 21,800 tons from the previous week, representing a growth of 1.85% [2] - The operating rates of downstream propylene factories showed mixed results, with the highest increase in the utilization rate of propylene acid products, while the largest decline was seen in epoxy propane utilization rates due to several facilities undergoing maintenance [2] - Overall, the supply and demand for propylene are relatively balanced, with maintenance activities tightening the spot market, leading to a stable futures market [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - As of September 18, propylene prices in East China were quoted at 6450 yuan/ton, while prices in Shandong were at 6580 yuan/ton [3] - The overall operating rate of propylene production has decreased, with more PDH facilities shutting down, leading to reduced spot availability in Shandong [3] - The rising prices of raw material propane are providing cost support, but terminal demand remains stable, resulting in thin production profits and limited acceptance of high-priced sources by manufacturers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will focus on how local governments can leverage their industrial foundations to create distinctive, advantageous, and sustainable competitive industrial systems, which will be crucial for economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Current Issues in Industrial Planning - Local governments face five main misconceptions in industrial planning, including a disconnect between planning and actual industrial layout, leading to ineffective implementation of policies [5]. - There is a tendency for policy homogenization, where regions overly mimic successful models from other areas without considering their unique resources and conditions, resulting in repetitive low-level construction [6]. - An excessive focus on high-tech industries has led to insufficient attention to the upgrading of traditional industries, which can also transition into new sectors through modernization [7]. - Industrial planning has historically prioritized manufacturing over service sectors, which are now becoming increasingly important in driving economic growth [8]. - Many plans are developed from the perspective of local management, neglecting the needs and input of businesses, which can lead to misalignment between planning and actual industrial activities [9]. Group 2: New Trends in Industrial Development - The rise of the digital economy is reshaping industrial structures into a "three-segment" model, emphasizing the importance of core industries, transformation platforms, and application scenarios [11]. - Traditional, emerging, and future industries are increasingly interchangeable, with traditional sectors capable of evolving into new industries through technological advancements [12]. - Consumer demand is becoming a significant driver of industrial development, with final consumption contributing an average of 56.2% to economic growth, up 8.6 percentage points from the previous five-year period [13]. - Flow has emerged as a critical variable in industrial competition, with the ability to attract and manage various flows (people, goods, capital, information) becoming essential for regional economic development [14]. Group 3: Recommendations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" - Local governments should focus on transforming traditional industries, leveraging existing resources while ensuring sustainable economic growth [16]. - It is essential to tailor transformation strategies to local resource endowments and market demands, as demonstrated by successful models in provinces like Anhui and Shandong [17]. - Innovation should drive the creation of new industrial clusters from traditional sectors, enhancing their adaptability to new market needs [18]. - Emphasizing niche, high-quality industrial chains rather than broad, unfocused development will help regions build sustainable competitive advantages in emerging industries [19]. - The planning process should respect the interdependencies between industries, promoting a cluster-based approach that integrates various sectors [20]. - Developing a supportive environment for emerging industries, particularly in terms of innovative resource allocation, is crucial for their growth [21]. - Service industries should be prioritized, with a focus on enhancing their network functions and attracting specialized talent to improve service quality [22][23]. - A new model for attracting investment should be established, focusing on the interconnections between industries and avoiding competitive redundancy [25][26]. - Increasing business participation in the planning process will ensure that policies align more closely with the needs of the industry [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [8] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating [13] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [16] - Lead: Oscillating [17] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23] - Stainless steel: Oscillating in the short - term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Report's Core View - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues are driving up the prices of basic metals. In the medium and short - term, prices are supported but the weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions support prices [1]. - Copper: Macro factors and supply disruptions support prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the US copper tariff is a negative factor [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Aluminum: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Lead: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Nickel: The market expects Indonesia's RKAB approval soon, so the price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and the industry needs to observe the raw material and macro factors [23]. - Stainless steel: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the implementation of the peak season and inventory changes need attention [24]. - Tin: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Information analysis: The Fed may cut interest rates, US GDP growth is better than expected, copper production has decreased, the spot premium has declined, and inventory has increased [7]. - Main logic: Macro factors and supply disruptions support copper prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the demand needs to be observed [7]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate [8]. 3.2 Alumina - Information analysis: Spot prices have declined, some enterprises have reduced production due to environmental protection, and warehouse receipts have increased [8]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly, with opportunities for short - selling and reverse arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: The price and inventory of aluminum have changed, an Indonesian enterprise is expected to be put into production, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [10]. - Main logic: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information analysis: The price and spread of aluminum alloy have changed, the exchange has adjusted margins and price limits, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [13]. - Main logic: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Outlook: Short - term prices are oscillating at a low level, and there is room for recovery and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3.5 Zinc - Information analysis: The spot discount and inventory of zinc have increased, and a smelter will conduct maintenance [15]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. 3.6 Lead - Information analysis: The price, spread, and inventory of lead have changed, and the market transaction is light [16]. - Main logic: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.7 Nickel - Information analysis: The inventory of nickel has increased, and there are many industry news items [19]. - Main logic: The market sentiment dominates the price, the industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [23]. - Outlook: The nickel price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - Information analysis: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts has increased, and the production in Indonesia is normal [24]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron have changed, production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. 3.9 Tin - Information analysis: The inventory and price of tin have changed, and a company will conduct maintenance [25]. - Main logic: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase [25].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding in the short term due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising raw material costs, and macro news. However, terminal demand has not recovered, production is still likely to increase, and prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 122,110 yuan/ton and closed at 123,450 yuan/ton, a 1.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 171,897 lots, and the open interest was 91,963 lots [1] - In the futures market, the main nickel contract showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation at night and closed slightly higher at the end. During the day session, it strengthened continuously due to the Jakarta strike in Indonesia and macro factors, reaching a maximum of 123,620 yuan/ton [2] - In the nickel ore market, it was mainly in a wait - and - see state during the day, and prices remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was okay. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 125,500 yuan/ton, a 2,100 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the sharp price increase, the spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the premium and discount remained stable [2] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly conduct range operations for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2509 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 164,893 lots, and the open interest was 100,563 lots [3] - In the futures market, the main stainless steel contract was weak at night, oscillating narrowly in the range of 12,770 - 12,860 yuan/ton. During the day session, it rose rapidly due to the news of unrest in Indonesia, reaching a maximum of 12,970 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, although there was news in the morning that a large steel mill restricted the sales of steel coils, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced goods was still limited. With the sharp rise in the futures market, the increase in spot quotes failed to keep up with the futures, but market inquiries and procurement activities improved, and the trading situation was relatively ideal [3] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings include: - Copper: Expected to be in a "震荡" (oscillation) pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (oscillating weakly) [6] - Aluminum: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) range [8][9] - Aluminum Alloy: Expected to have short - term "震荡" (oscillation) and potential upward movement for ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 in the future [9][10] - Zinc: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (oscillating weakly) in the medium - to - long term [13] - Lead: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) state [14][15][16] - Nickel: Expected to be "偏强" (strong) in the short term and "空头离场" (short - sellers exit) in the medium - to - long term [19] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) range in the short term [21] - Tin: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) state, with potential increased volatility in August [22][23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro - level**: Recent economic data are mixed. European investor and consumer confidence indices in August are weak, but US August existing - home sales and August Euro - US manufacturing PMI flash values are better than expected. Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting have kept the US dollar weak, which has boosted base metals to some extent. However, Trump's new "tariff stick" on August 26 has cooled investors' optimism, causing base metals to rise first and then fall [1]. - **Supply - demand level**: The reverse invoicing problem has tightened scrap supply, which has disrupted the supply side, but the terminal demand outlook is weak. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the demand outlook is weak. Whether the inventory will start to decline again in the peak season in September remains to be observed. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling copper and zinc at high prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China still exists, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with an expectation of tightening supply - demand, which supports base metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Powell's dovish speech has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. The supply of copper ore and raw materials is still tight, and the risk of smelter production cuts has increased. Currently in the off - season of downstream demand, the inventory accumulation is not obvious. It is expected that copper prices will be supported in the short term due to low inventory. In the future, copper may show an oscillating pattern [5][6]. - **Alumina**: The smelter's operating capacity has recovered to a high level, the supply - demand balance shows an obvious surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend has expanded. The fundamentals are relatively weak. The spot price has accelerated its decline, and the futures price has significantly decreased to repair the basis. It is expected to be oscillating and under pressure in the future [6]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term US rate cut expectation has increased, and the US dollar index is weak. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period. The supply side has new production capacity coming on stream, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. The demand side has an increasing expectation of improved orders as the peak season approaches, but the terminal consumption has not strengthened significantly. The inventory accumulation rhythm has been unstable. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in an oscillating range [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The cost side is strongly supported as scrap aluminum follows aluminum ingots. The supply side's off - season production has continued to decline, and some recycling aluminum plants have reduced or stopped production. The demand side is still in a strong off - season atmosphere, and downstream procurement is weak. The factory inventory has continued to decline, and the social inventory has increased. The price is expected to be in an oscillating range in the short term, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future for ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 [9][10]. - **Zinc**: The macro - level is negative due to the decline in black - series prices, although Powell's speech has put pressure on the US dollar. The short - term zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand outlook is average. In the short term, zinc prices may be in a high - level oscillation, and in the medium - to - long term, they are expected to decline [13]. - **Lead**: The spot discount has slightly narrowed, the supply has slightly tightened due to the reduction in production by some recycling lead plants and transportation restrictions, and the demand has rebounded as some battery factories have ended their high - temperature holidays. It is expected that there will be a slight shortage of supply - demand this week, and the price will be in an oscillating state [14][15][16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be strong due to the strong performance of the equity market, and short - sellers are expected to exit in the medium - to - long term [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has rebounded, and the chromium - iron price has remained stable. The stainless - steel production has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. It is necessary to pay attention to the realization of demand in the peak season. In the short term, it is expected to be in an oscillating range [21]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, which strongly supports the bottom of tin prices. However, the terminal demand has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, and the inventory reduction is difficult. It is expected that tin prices will be in an oscillating state, and the volatility may increase in August [22][23]. 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the names of various metals (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) under this section but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][39][51]. 3.3商品指数 - **综合指数**: The commodity index on August 26, 2025, was 2222.35, a decrease of 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2472.77，a decrease of 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2257.74, a decrease of 0.78% [138]. - **特色指数**: No specific content is provided [139]. - **板块指数**: The non - ferrous metals index on August 26, 2025, was 2377.52, with a daily decline of 0.65%, a 5 - day increase of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.00% [140].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the inventory accumulation rate accelerating, and the steel mills' profit is gradually shrinking. If the demand fails to improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [3]. - For iron ore, although the supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season, the contradiction between high hot metal production and weak terminal demand needs attention. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. - For ferrous alloys, the prices are affected by emotions in the short term. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The fundamental problems of over - supply in manganese silicon and silicon iron still exist [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and polysilicon will maintain a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and high - volatility operation [16][17]. - For glass and soda ash, glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center of soda ash may gradually rise, but the upward space is limited [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3361 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.41%) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand had a slight recovery but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory had increased for six consecutive weeks [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 770.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50). The weighted position was 82.93 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.71 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4075 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous period. Port inventory continued to rise slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrous Alloys - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.10%, and the silicon iron main contract (SF511) closed up 0.07% [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There was no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of silicon iron, and the supply also showed a continuous recovery trend [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, up 1.27% (+ 110). The weighted contract position decreased by 5333 hands to 523742 hands [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand remained. Production continued to rise, and the demand support for prices was limited [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 51405 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 125). The weighted contract position decreased by 8014 hands to 327469 hands [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It maintained a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, both unchanged from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Production remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Quotes**: The spot price was 1220 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, inventory pressure increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center might gradually rise in the long term [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting held by six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, signals a strong commitment to regulate competition in the photovoltaic industry and combat "involution" in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has increased to 47,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 1.05%, while N-type granular silicon reached 46,000 yuan/ton, up 3.37% week-on-week [1] - Major polysilicon manufacturers are implementing production cuts, which is alleviating market supply pressure and leading to expectations of continued price increases [1] - The overall polysilicon supply is further constrained by manufacturers controlling shipments, resulting in increased purchasing demand from downstream buyers who are anticipating price hikes [1] Group 2: Inventory and Production - Despite the optimistic outlook, there are concerns regarding inventory levels, with an expected increase of approximately 20,000 tons in polysilicon inventory during August and September [1][2] - In August, polysilicon production is projected to reach between 125,000 and 130,000 tons, which may lead to rising inventory pressure [1] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The price of silicon wafers has remained stable, with average transaction prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N silicon wafers holding steady at 1.20 yuan/piece, 1.35 yuan/piece, and 1.55 yuan/piece respectively [2] - The market sentiment for silicon wafers is positive due to recent policy advancements, but the weak end-demand is limiting the acceptance of high-priced orders [2][3] - Some silicon wafer manufacturers have begun to slightly increase prices, with new quotes for 183N at 1.25 yuan/piece, 210RN at 1.40 yuan/piece, and 210N at 1.60 yuan/piece, contingent on downstream acceptance [2] Group 4: Cell and Module Market - The average transaction prices for battery cells remain unchanged, with 183N, 210RN, and 210N cells priced at 0.29 yuan/W, 0.285 yuan/W, and 0.285 yuan/W respectively [3] - The module market is experiencing weak demand, with new orders being limited and primarily focused on fulfilling previous contracts, leading to lower overall transaction prices [3] - Recent bidding prices for modules range from 0.68 yuan/W to 0.75 yuan/W, indicating a need for careful observation of policy implementation to gauge market recovery [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - side pressure is not significant, attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress. If the terminal demand continues to weaken, the short - term iron ore price may be slightly adjusted [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, in the short - term disordered market environment affected by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [8]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations, and for polysilicon, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.191%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.40%) from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand rebounded significantly, and inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are in a marginal upward state, with high production and insufficient demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 769.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 44.04 million hands [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output increased. Port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.32% at 5836 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.99% at 5622 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of related commodities, including ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, have dropped significantly. It is expected that the price will eventually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8390 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.72% (- 235). The weighted contract position changed to 5.26445 million hands [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and the demand side can provide some support, but the price is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51875 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.74% (- 385). The weighted contract position changed to 3.37155 million hands [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the inventory clearance speed was limited. The supply - demand situation is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1156 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 30 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 2.55% [18]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions, and the price may rise if there are substantial real - estate policies [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% [19]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center may gradually rise under the "anti - involution" logic, but the upward space is limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [19].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with paraxylene (PX) futures experiencing a slight increase, reaching a high of 6852.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 1.70% [1] - Recent supply of PX has increased, while PTA operating rates remain stable, leading to a marginal weakening of PX fundamentals. However, terminal demand is expected to recover seasonally in August and September, with an anticipated increase in polyester operating rates [1] - Overall, while terminal demand shows marginal improvement and short-term supply-demand dynamics provide some support, PX valuations have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, suggesting limited upward potential and a likely period of volatility ahead, particularly in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The decline in crude oil prices has led to an overall correction in the energy and chemical sector, with PTA facilities experiencing reduced production due to low processing fees, resulting in limited recovery [2] - Despite the recent tightening of PX supply, the PX-N price spread remains robust at 254 USD, while PX prices in the external market have seen a slight rebound to 833 USD, indicating a continued volatile market environment [2] - The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation as stakeholders await changes in PTA facility operations [2]