Core Insights - The company reported 1H25 performance in line with expectations, with revenue of $7.833 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit of $628 million, up 14.2% year-on-year [1] Performance Overview - Milwaukee continues to outperform the industry, while Ryobi achieved high single-digit growth. In 1H25, power tools revenue reached $7.425 billion, growing 7.9% year-on-year, with Milwaukee's revenue increasing by 11.9% in local currency and Ryobi by 8.7% [1] - The floor care business saw revenue of $408 million, a decline of 4.6% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased demand for the VAX brand in the UK and Australia [1] - By region, North America generated $5.872 billion in revenue, up 7.5% year-on-year; Europe saw revenue of $1.401 billion, increasing by 11.9%; other regions contributed $560 million, down 6.5% [1] Profitability and Inventory Management - The company's gross margin improved to 40.3%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by growth in high-value products like Milwaukee and improved profitability in consumer brands [2] - The net profit margin for 1H25 was 8.0%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue rose by 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%, while sales expenses increased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.2%. Management and financial expenses decreased by 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points to 9.5% and 0.7%, respectively [2] - Inventory increased by 6.61% year-on-year as the company raised finished goods stock to prepare for potential tariff changes in the second half of 2025 [2] Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Since 2025, U.S. housing sales have been declining, with new home sales down 6.6% year-on-year in June 2025, and existing home sales remaining flat [2] - Anticipated tariffs led to increased end-user orders and elevated inventory levels in the supply chain [3] - The actual annualized consumption of tools and hardware in the U.S. was $41.94 billion in March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. However, by June, this figure dropped to $39.95 billion, a decline of 3.4% year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at $0.70 and $0.80, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 17.4 and 15.2 for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The target price is set at HKD 115.49, implying P/E ratios of 21.5 and 18.6 for 2025 and 2026, with a potential upside of 22.6% [3]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Black night trading weakened. In the short - term, steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer. It is expected that the high price will fluctuate. Previously, it was recommended to buy on dips, and current long positions can be held. Be cautious about chasing long positions due to limited release of terminal demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3370 to 3360 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 3470 to 3460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2 tons, an increase of 4.8%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6 tons, an increase of 2.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.4 to 210.8 tons, an increase of 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.8 to 306.2 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, the 2509 iron ore contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. In the future, the pig iron output in August will remain high, but is expected to decrease slightly to around 236 tons per day on average. Unilateral trading is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased from 800.0 to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.5 to - 37.0, an increase of 8.6% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an increase of 11.9%, and the global shipment volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a decrease of 4.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an increase of 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 19.1 to 321.9 tons, an increase of 6.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a decrease of 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.7 to 13712.27 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3 tons, an increase of 0.0%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, coke and coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. There is still a possibility of further price increases for coke. For both coke and coking coal, the speculative strategy is to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to do 9 - 1 reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1347 yuan/ton. The coke 09 contract decreased by 14 to 1668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The coking profit of Steel Union decreased by 11 to - 54 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 to 1139 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 18 to 1070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 22 to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.34% [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The raw coal output decreased by 9.7 to 859.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the clean coal output decreased by 5.1 to 439.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 112.0 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent macro - atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and there is insufficient cost - side support. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity, and there is a lack of upward drive. However, as the basis weakens, the buying interest of traders has slightly increased, and the downward space is limited. Also, pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - For MEG, this week's ethylene glycol foreign vessel arrivals are relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase stage - by - stage. In August, the ethylene glycol fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the domestic output increase is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will have a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, so pay attention to the cost - side and device changes [7]. - The influencing factors include that the supply - demand expectation of PTA will improve in August due to some device overhauls, but the terminal demand is weakening as it is the end of the export rush and the domestic demand off - season [9]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - aspect. Pay attention to the cost - side, and for the upward rebound of the futures price, pay attention to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level. The spot trading atmosphere slightly improved, the basis was weak, and the trading was mainly between traders. Some polyester factories sold goods. The mainstream suppliers also sold goods. The August goods were traded at a discount of 12 - 25 to the 09 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4650 - 4660 yuan/ton. The goods in the middle and upper part of September were traded at par with the 09 contract, and those in the lower part of September were traded at a premium of 5 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 19 [5]. - **MEG**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, the domestic ethylene glycol market weakened slightly, and the trading was general. The spot was traded at a premium of 78 - 80 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In the afternoon, driven by the temporary shutdown of the Maoming Petrochemical device, the ethylene glycol futures price rose strongly. By the end of the session, the spot negotiation strengthened to a premium of 79 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the negotiation of recent shipments weakened slightly to around 520 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the negotiation center rose to 523 - 525 US dollars/ton in the afternoon driven by the unexpected shutdown news of the Maoming Petrochemical device. There were transactions of recent shipments at around 523 US dollars/ton during the day. In addition, there were transactions of Taiwan tender goods at around 525 US dollars/ton with a cargo volume of 2000 tons [8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PTA**: The spot price is 4660 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is - 22, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation. The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a negative factor. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position has increased, which is a negative factor [5][6]. - **MEG**: The spot price is 4460 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 61, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation. The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position has decreased, which is a negative factor [7][8]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol over time [12]. 3.5. Price - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of PET bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's basis, inter - month spread, spot spread, etc., which reflect the price trends and relationships of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [15][18][22][23][25][28][31][38]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis - There are inventory data charts of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers, etc., including factory inventory days, port inventory, and inventory days of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which reflect the inventory levels and trends of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2021 to 2025 [41][42][44][46][47][51]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - **Upstream**: There are charts showing the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain from 2020 to 2025, which reflect the production activities of upstream products [52][53][55]. - **Downstream**: There are charts showing the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025, which reflect the production activities of downstream products [56][57][59]. 3.8. Profit - There are profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), etc., which reflect the profit trends of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2022 to 2025. It should be noted that the profit calculation is mainly for observing trends [60][63][66][67][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a weak spot basis. Some mainstream suppliers sold their goods. The supply - demand pattern is okay due to some PTA device shutdowns last week, but the spot basis is weak. Considering the cooling macro - atmosphere, commodity correction, insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand in the off - season, the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are new changes in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market negotiation was general. Due to weather - related delays in vessel arrivals this week, the visible inventory is expected to decline. The ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to around 69%, and there is still room for improvement. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation, and the tradable spot in the market will gradually become more abundant. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No specific content for the previous day review is provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental aspect: Futures were low - level fluctuating, spot negotiation was general, and basis was weak. 8 - month mainstream transactions were at 09 - 15, 9 - month mid - term at 09 flat, and 9 - month end at 09 + 5. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 15 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4700, 09 - contract basis is 2, and the futures price is higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Position of main players: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price fluctuation, pay attention to new changes in devices under low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamental aspect: Price fluctuated narrowly, and market negotiation was general. Spot transactions were in a narrow range, with a premium of 77 - 80 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The foreign - exchange price also fluctuated narrowly [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 4455, 09 - contract basis is 66, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Position of main players: Net short position with a decrease in short positions [7]. - Expectation: Short - term weak price adjustment, pay attention to cost - side changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No specific content for today's focus is provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes over time [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [11]. - **Price - related Data**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various spreads of bottle chips, as well as the basis, spreads, and price differences of PTA and MEG, and the processing fees and profits of related products, covering the data from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][23][26][29][36]. - **Inventory - related Data**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products, including factory - level and port - level inventories, from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][49]. - **Operating Rate - related Data**: It presents the operating rate data of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55]. - **Profit - related Data**: It includes the processing fees of PTA and the production profits of MEG and various polyester products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [2]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [2]. - In the short term, the market will experience volatile consolidation, while in the long term, the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Trend Review - Futures market: This week, the main RB2510 rebar contract retraced, closing at 3,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 89 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.816 million lots, a decrease of 90,000 lots. The main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract slightly retraced, closing at 33,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.4339 million lots, a decrease of 73,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved lower. As of July 31, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 3,270 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved lower. As of July 31, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,370 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main RB2510 rebar contract compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 165 yuan/ton, a change of +91 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 40 yuan/ton, a change of +57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the RB2601 - RB2510 spread was 56 yuan/ton, a change of +13 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - HC2510 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the HC2510 - RB2510 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a change of +34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - RB2601 spread was 136 yuan/ton, a change of +17 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and 2.18 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week and 58.88 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from last week but an increase of 40,900 tons compared with last year [20]. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 867,420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 450 tons. The increase was mainly in cold - and hot - rolled coils, while the output of other varieties decreased to varying degrees [20]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [20]. 3.2.2 Demand - Recently, the State Council approved the construction of a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating good prospects for future infrastructure steel demand. - On the 31st, the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations ended, and both sides agreed to extend the tariff truce period originally due to expire on August 12 by 90 days. The tariffs on China remained the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. It is expected that the path for the implementation of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar, and this pattern is expected to continue for some time due to the arrival of the seasonal off - season for building materials [30]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 942,370 tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,900 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 409,520 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.35189 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,900 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream, continuing a certain de - stocking trend [36]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [47]. - With the recovery of profits, electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to increase production and resume production, resulting in a significant increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization rate. However, due to poor steel sales, the overall recovery amplitude narrowed. As of July 30, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country increased by 2.19% to 74.21%, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.56% to 57.05%, both reaching an eight - week high [47]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - Affected by domestic policies this week, the prices of major raw materials fluctuated significantly. The price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3,097 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton [56]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [60]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [7]. - The outlook for specific varieties is also mostly "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [9][10][13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the important meeting, although the tone is positive, it fails to meet the market's overly enthusiastic expectations, leading to a decline in black prices. However, as the previous bubble is squeezed out, there may be subsequent positive policies. The terminal demand has not shown an obvious turnaround, and the focus currently lies in the intermediate links. The market is volatile, and deep declines are not expected in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Steel mills' profitability has increased again, but iron water production has decreased in some areas due to rainfall, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in berthing ships, and at mills have all decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction in the iron ore market, there is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the price has slightly declined, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Some coal mines have resumed production, but production disturbances still exist, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders are more cautious. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be highly volatile [3] Alloys - The continuous increase in coke prices has strengthened the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The manganese ore market is more cautious, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The demand for ferromanganese - silicon from steel mills is still resilient, but as manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Glass - In the off - season, glass demand has declined, deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased. After the futures market decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled down. The supply is expected to remain stable. The "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, and the short - term futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [6] Soda Ash - In the long term, the over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market, but the delivery pressure is large. It is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and the long - term price center will decline [6] Steel - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - trading has temporarily ended. There is a possibility of policy adjustment on the supply side and an increase in infrastructure steel demand. The export is expected to remain resilient. The actual implementation effect of steel mill production restrictions needs to be tracked. The steel market fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, and there is short - term downward pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions have decreased significantly. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume at ports has decreased. Steel mills' iron water production has decreased, and inventories have decreased. The fundamentals have limited negative driving force, and the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [10] Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel have increased significantly. The inventory has slightly accumulated, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [11] Coke - The futures market is oscillating weakly, and the spot price has decreased. Coke production is temporarily stable, and demand is still strong. The supply - demand structure is tight, and price increases are accelerating. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [13][14] Coking Coal - After the macro - meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market has declined significantly. The supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be volatile [13][14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has declined weakly. The supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [18] Ferrosilicon - The futures price has declined significantly due to the weakening of market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]

Core Viewpoint - The current stage of China's economy requires a focus on maintaining a moderate growth rate, with a target of 5% and a bottom line of 4% that must not be breached. The emphasis is on expanding development-oriented consumption, particularly in areas related to basic public services such as education, healthcare, housing, social security, and elderly care [3][4][10]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - China's economy has shown a recovery trend post-pandemic, achieving growth rates of 5.2% and 5% in the past two years, which is among the highest globally [4]. - The GDP deflator index has been in negative growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating a decline in total demand [5]. - The government has set a growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to achieve this goal [5][6]. - The per capita GDP in China reached $12,500 in 2021, nearing the World Bank's high-income threshold, but the gap has slightly widened due to various factors including the pandemic [5][6][7]. Group 2: Structural Issues in Consumption - There is a significant structural deviation in consumption, with household consumption accounting for only 39.12% of GDP compared to 57.27% in OECD countries, indicating a need for structural reforms to boost consumption [16][17]. - The low level of basic public services and the large urban-rural gap are major factors contributing to insufficient development-oriented consumption [17][23]. - The urbanization rate in China is currently at 67%, which is lower than that of comparable developed economies, affecting the quality and accessibility of public services [24][25]. Group 3: Income Disparities and Government Wealth - The income gap in China remains significant, with a Gini coefficient above 0.4, which is associated with a smaller middle-income group and insufficient demand [26]. - Government wealth constitutes a high proportion of social net wealth, leading to low consumption rates as a significant portion of savings is retained for investment rather than consumption [27][30]. - The high savings rate in China, at 46%, is driven by low dividends from enterprises and a concentration of wealth among high-income groups, limiting overall consumption potential [28][29]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations for Consumption Growth - To effectively stimulate consumption, the focus should be on addressing the needs of low-income groups, particularly in education, healthcare, housing, social security, and elderly care [33][34]. - Structural reforms should aim to enhance the basic public service level for migrant workers and low-income groups, thereby increasing their consumption capacity [36][37]. - The government should consider reallocating state-owned financial capital to enhance pension funds for rural residents, which could significantly boost their consumption capacity and overall economic growth [38][39].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price increases, with Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled price rising to 12,900 CNY/ton, a daily increase of 100 CNY/ton, and Foshan Hongwang's price also at 12,900 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore prices are showing some flexibility, with Philippine 1.3% nickel ore FOB prices dropping to 32-33 USD, while Indonesian nickel ore prices have slightly decreased by 0.03-0.05 USD, maintaining a generally stable trend [2][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to decrease, with an estimated output of 3.2531 million tons in July, down 2.87% month-on-month and 1.67% year-on-year [2] - Social inventory of stainless steel is declining slowly, with Wuxi and Foshan's 300 series social inventory at 525,900 tons, a slight week-on-week increase [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic despite being in a consumption off-season, with end-user purchases primarily driven by essential restocking [3] - Nickel iron prices remain weak, with recent transactions hitting a new low of 900 CNY/nickel, leading to limited purchasing interest from steel mills due to cost pressures [2][3] - The repair schedule of a stainless steel plant in Guangxi is expected to impact market supply by approximately 80,000 tons over a 25-30 day period [3] Market Outlook - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with supportive policies expected to be released, particularly in key industries like steel and non-ferrous metals [3] - The stainless steel market is anticipated to experience short-term fluctuations, with a reference trading range of 12,600-13,200 CNY/ton, influenced by policy directions and production cuts from steel mills [4]