Global Markets Strategy 12 September 2025 J P M O R G A N Metals Weekly Gold in 4K coming soon Global Commodities Research Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Jason Hunter (1-212) 270-0034 jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Ali A. Ibrahim (44-20) 3493-6438 ali.ibrahim@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 ananyashree.gupta@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan India Private Limited See page 12 for analyst ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,692.50 per ounce on Thursday, up 0.3% from Wednesday’s close of $3,681.80. So far in September, gold has gained 5.9%. The price of gold did not respond dramatically to the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate reduction of 2025. The central bank lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and projected two additional rate cuts by year-end. The Fed also updated its Summary of Economic Projections, a report outlining projected inflation, unemployment, and economic grow ...

物价上涨，就业增长停滞，股市却屡创新高，多重信号预警之下，美国民众再度回忆起上世纪70年代的痛苦—— 滞胀。 经季节性调整后，消费者价格指数的同比变动。 数据来源：美国劳工统计局 哥伦比亚大学商学院经济学家布雷特·豪斯（Brett House）指出，今年1月时，经济学家们对未来一年经济衰退的 预期处于3年来最低水平，同时预期经济增长将保持稳健，通胀率将继续下降。然而，这些预期因白宫一系列政策及 其反复无常的执行而被彻底扭转。"我们看到今年余下时间的增长预测被大幅下调，通胀预期则被推高"。 布朗大学经济学家塞布内姆·卡勒姆利-奥兹坎（Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan）认为，当前滞胀正在酝酿且速度非常慢， 企业正等待合适的时机转嫁关税成本。一旦企业开始看到需求上升，并把更高的成本转嫁给更多消费者，通胀就会随 之而来。 上世纪70年代，通胀持续走高和反复冲击导致通胀预期无法锚定，各央行为控制通胀大幅加息，引发全球经济衰 退及金融危机，许多新兴市场和发展中经济体由此进入长时间的疲弱增长时期。 目前，美国经济虽未真正陷入滞胀，但最新数据显示这一困境正在逼近。9月15日，《卫报》引援多位经济学家 观点指出，经济" ...

Group 1 - The market is increasingly focused on gold and gold stocks, with expectations for further upward movement in both [1] - Economic indicators show signs of stagflation in the U.S., with a significant drop in non-farm employment and rising unemployment rates, leading to a near-certain probability of interest rate cuts in September [2] - Historical trends suggest that precious metals often experience a rally during the early and mid-stages of a rate-cutting cycle, which could provide upward momentum for gold prices [2] Group 2 - The trend of de-dollarization is intensifying, with central banks in emerging markets, including China and India, increasing their gold reserves, which may drive up gold prices [3] - Recent earnings reports from major gold mining companies show substantial profit growth, with some companies experiencing net profit increases between 48% and 67%, indicating strong performance driven by rising gold prices and increased production [4] - The valuation of gold mining companies remains attractive, with projected average P/E ratios for 2026 between 12 and 15 times, compared to a historical average of around 20 times, suggesting significant room for valuation recovery [4]

近日，英国《卫报》网站刊发文章指出，当下的美国经济正呈现一种奇怪的态势：物价上涨，就业增长停滞，不 确定性无处不在，而股市却飙升至历史新高。 这让"滞胀"这个美国人记忆当中的可怕词汇再度被提及。 英国《卫报》网站截图 "滞胀"是指经济增长"停滞"与物价"通胀"并存。这意味着企业正在减少生产和招聘，但价格却持续攀升。 一些经济学家认为，经济"滞胀"可能比"衰退"更糟。美国上一次经历长期滞胀是在20世纪70年代的石油危机期 间。当时油价上涨导致通胀上升，消费者削减支出又使得失业率上升。目前，美国经济虽未出现滞胀，但正逐渐 接近。 英国《卫报》网站截图 美国劳动力市场走软 通胀率走高 文章分析，今年春季特朗普宣布加征关税后，官方数据最初显示美国经济未受明显影响，新增就业岗位稳定增 加，通胀率降至2021年以来的最低水平。 与此同时，美国通胀率自4月开始回升，8月达到2.9%，为今年1月份以来的最高涨幅。 英国《卫报》网站截图 在哥伦比亚商学院经济学家布雷特·豪斯看来，今年1月，市场对未来一年经济衰退的预期处于3年来的最低水平， 同时预计通胀率将持续下降。但随后白宫经济政策的变化颠覆了这两种预期，市场对今年经济增长的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the high probability of an interest rate cut, with a focus on potential candidates for the next Fed Chair and their implications for monetary policy [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the U.S. policy rate to a range of 4%-4.25% [3]. - There is a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with a slight chance of a 50 basis point reduction being suggested by some analysts [3][6]. - Market participants are increasingly betting on at least one more rate cut by the end of the year, with expectations for two additional cuts [3]. Group 2: Potential Candidates for Fed Chair - Rick Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock, is emerging as a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, with discussions on monetary policy and regulatory frameworks having taken place with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [4][5]. - Rieder's analytical approach, which emphasizes forward-looking assessments rather than relying solely on lagging data, aligns with the current administration's desire for a more flexible monetary policy [5][6]. - The selection process for the next Fed Chair is ongoing, with Mnuchin expected to present a shortlist to President Trump later this fall [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Economic indicators suggest a cooling labor market, with employment growth nearly stagnant, while inflation pressures are still building [7][8]. - Analysts predict that the Fed will prioritize addressing employment pressures over inflation concerns in the near term [8]. - The potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario is highlighted, where rate cuts may lead to price increases rather than economic expansion due to supply constraints [9].

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.4% from an earlier prediction of 1.9%, while also increasing inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [3] - The inflation rate is now expected to rise to 3.1%, up from the previous estimate of 2.2% [3] - The unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by the fourth quarter of 2025, higher than the earlier forecast of 4.3% [3] Economic Conditions - Recent reports indicate that the U.S. economy may be entering an early stagflation phase, characterized by simultaneous economic growth slowdown and rising prices [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in August, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9%, the highest level since January [7] - Initial jobless claims surged to a four-year high, with approximately 263,000 people filing for unemployment insurance in the week ending September 6 [7] Federal Reserve Response - Signs of stagflation are becoming increasingly evident, and the Federal Reserve currently lacks an ideal response strategy [9] - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a policy meeting on September 16, with market attention focused on potential interest rate cuts due to recent labor market weakness [9]

Economic Outlook - Weak economic data raises concerns among analysts about the potential for the U.S. economy to slide into stagflation or even recession, with consumer confidence declining for two consecutive months, job creation falling significantly short of expectations, and inflation levels continuing to rise [1][12] - The current economic situation is reminiscent of the stagflation crisis that plagued the Western world in the 1970s and 1980s, indicating a re-emergence of this long-dormant risk [3] Stagflation Definition - Stagflation is defined as a unique economic phenomenon where production stagnation coexists with inflation, leading to rising unemployment, sluggish corporate production, and soaring prices, creating a dilemma for macroeconomic policy [4] Labor Market and Inflation - Recent data shows a sharp decline in hiring activities in August, with the labor market remaining weak, while inflation has reached its highest point since January, slightly below the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year remain high at 4.8%, significantly above the current actual rate of 2.9%, indicating a potential self-fulfilling prophecy that could further elevate actual inflation [4] Political Economic Policies - The economic governance model of the Republican Party, particularly during the Trump administration, is criticized for its large-scale tariff policies that have led to increased prices for imported goods, exacerbating inflationary pressures [6] - In contrast, the Democratic Party traditionally emphasizes balanced economic policies, with historical data showing that GDP growth rates under Democratic presidents have been higher than those under Republican presidents since 1945 [8] Long-term Economic Strategies - The Biden administration's infrastructure investment plan aims to inject $1.2 trillion over the next decade to modernize infrastructure, which is expected to create numerous jobs and enhance long-term economic growth potential [8] - Democratic policies focus on structural reforms and long-term investments rather than short-term stimulus, promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth [11] Inflation Control Measures - The Democratic approach to controlling inflation includes a multi-faceted strategy, such as releasing strategic oil reserves to stabilize energy prices and implementing the Inflation Reduction Act to lower prescription drug and healthcare costs [9] - The Republican reliance on monetary tools like interest rate hikes is seen as a one-size-fits-all approach that risks leading to economic hard landings [9] Consumer Confidence and Economic Risks - The current economic landscape is precarious, with consumer spending accounting for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and declining consumer confidence, a weak job market, and rising inflation signals warrant close attention [12] - If policymakers fail to adjust economic strategies effectively, the U.S. economy may indeed face the unsettling prospect of returning to a stagflation era, impacting living costs, job opportunities, and real income for ordinary Americans [13][15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week, with debates intensifying over whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points due to weak economic data [1][2] - Political pressures and economic concerns are influencing the Fed's decision, with analysts suggesting a higher likelihood of a 50 basis point cut [1][3] - Historical data indicates that every time the Fed has initiated a rate cut cycle with a 50 basis point reduction since 1987, the U.S. has entered a recession [1][10] Group 2 - Recent employment data has been revised down significantly, indicating a potential weakening labor market, which may justify a larger rate cut [2][3] - Various financial institutions have differing predictions for the rate cut, with Standard Chartered predicting a 50 basis point cut, while others like Deutsche Bank and Barclays expect a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 90% probability for a 25 basis point cut and a 10% probability for a 50 basis point cut [4] Group 3 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent shift towards a more dovish stance has raised expectations for a larger rate cut, influenced by political pressures from the Trump administration [5][7] - The relationship between the Trump administration and the Fed has become increasingly tense, with potential implications for future monetary policy decisions [7][8] - Some economists argue that a 50 basis point cut could signal severe economic distress, while others view it as a proactive measure to support employment growth [10][11] Group 4 - Historical analysis shows that rate cuts do not guarantee a bull market for U.S. stocks, with past cycles indicating mixed outcomes for equity markets [15] - The dollar typically faces downward pressure during rate cut cycles, while gold prices often rise due to lower opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets [15][16] - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to be a critical event for global financial markets, influencing various asset classes and revealing the Fed's policy direction under economic and political pressures [16]

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices reached a record high of $3,674.27 per ounce, surpassing the previous peak of $850 per ounce (adjusted for inflation) [1] - The price of gold has increased approximately 5% this month and nearly 40% year-to-date, highlighting its status as a safe-haven asset amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Factors such as rising unemployment claims and persistent high core CPI contributed to the recent surge in gold prices, with analysts suggesting a constructive outlook for gold in the coming months [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent economic data indicates a cooling U.S. economy, with the August CPI rising 2.9%, the largest increase in seven months, and a decline in the PPI [2] - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns about stagflation [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, with traders fully pricing in this possibility [2] Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - U.S. tax cuts and tariffs, along with challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, have diminished the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, leading to increased investment in gold [3] - Historical perspectives on gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation are being reinforced by current economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties [3] - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 by mid-2026, with scenarios suggesting prices could even hit $4,500 to $5,000 if there is a significant outflow from dollar assets [3] Group 4: Central Bank Trends and Future Outlook - Central banks are diversifying their foreign reserves, with gold's share in reserves rising since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally [4] - The future trajectory of gold prices will depend on Federal Reserve policy and global risk events, with historical trends indicating that rate-cutting periods enhance gold's appeal [4] - The ongoing gold market rally is supported by a broad investor base and policy uncertainties, positioning gold as both an inflation hedge and a beneficiary of global asset reallocation [4]