Core Insights - Global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.8 billion in May, ending a five-month streak of inflows, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [1][3] - The total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs decreased by 1% to $374 billion, with holdings dropping by 19 tons to 3,541 tons [1][2] Group 1: Regional Performance - North America led the outflows with a net withdrawal of $1.54 billion, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment due to a temporary easing of trade tensions and a strong stock market rebound, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [2][3] - Asia saw a net outflow of $489.4 million, primarily driven by Chinese investors, as the easing of trade tensions and stock market recovery diminished the need for gold [4] - Europe was the only region to record inflows, with a modest increase of $225 million, largely attributed to stable inflows from France amid concerns over economic growth and political instability [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May, coupled with cautious remarks regarding inflation and labor market risks, has led to expectations of sustained high rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Despite the outflows, global gold ETF inflows for 2025 remain positive at $30 billion, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons since the beginning of the year [2]

文 | 万联万象，作者｜时楠，编辑｜小峰 电影《白银帝国》中，山西天成元票号在中国金融界叱咤风云，上演着白银作为金属货币最后的辉煌。 100多年后，白银早已告别货币属性，更多成为首饰和工业材料。时针来到2025年，随着国际局势的动 荡，白银一路高歌，年内上涨超20％，直追黄金。国内沪银市场的资金沉淀量，更是从年初的180亿元 飙升至390亿元，实现翻番！ 当历史的车轮开始转动，业内人士不得不重新审视：一个新的白银帝国，呼之欲出！ 01 被低估的避险资产 在贵金属市场中，黄金始终是避险资金的首选，而白银则长期处于"配角"地位。这也体现在价格上，当 黄金突破3500美元/盎司历史高位时，白银的价格只有其百分之一。 然而，白银在宏观经济不确定性加剧时，也跟上了黄金的脚步，成为投资者寻求更高潜在回报的第二选 择。2025年以来，全球地缘政治风险上升、关税战打打停停、美元信用体系面临挑战，白银以相对较低 的价格和更高的杠杆效应，吸引了大量资金的涌入。 最新统计数据显示，截至2025年第二周，国内外白银期货及现货价格突破历史阻力位，呈强势上行态 势：沪银主力合约创8855元／千克的历史纪录，国际白银期货飙升至37.03美 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 黑色系表现弱势，金、油相对偏强 ——中信期货晨报20250613 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | STC BEY LES CALL HOW BAY ARE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3883.6 | 0.12% | 0.73% | 1.60% | 0.65% | -0.95% | | | 上证50期货 | 2682.2 | -0.01% | 0.32% | 0.56% | 0.61% | 0.16% | | | 中证500期货 | 5780 | 0.33% | 0.95% | 2.70% ...

摘要 2025年上半年，全球宏观经济最大的预期差是"美国例外论"被证伪，原因包括Deepseek时刻、特朗普关税 冲击和美国财政约束。下半年，关税谈判的潜在反复、滞胀预期的验证和《美丽大法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）的落地相互交织，如何把握短期交易节奏、理解"美国否定论"叙事下的全球资金再平衡 的趋势？ 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 陈达飞 一、叙事切换：从"美国例外论"到"美国否定论" 2025年上半年，全球宏观经济整体平稳，关税扰动导致全球工业生产和商品贸易"前置"。 2025年1-3月，标 普全球制造业PMI连续3个月运行于50荣枯线以上（50.1、50.6和50.3），4月重回49.8。商品贸易量价呈V 型，截止到5月底，商品贸易价格增速已恢复至年初水平。 然而，美国对等关税引发的新一轮全面贸易冲突为下半年的商品贸易、工业生产和经济增长蒙上了"阴 影"。 IMF 4月世界经济展望下修2025年全球GDP增速预测至2.8%，较1月下降了0.5个百分点。其中，美国 从2.7%下调到1.8%，欧元区从1%下调到0.8% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising rapidly, with Trump indicating that Israel may attack Iran, which will lead to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index and a strong rise in gold prices [2][3][16][20]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the initial jobless claims and May PPI being weaker than expected, which affects the performance of various financial and commodity markets [15][16][23][24]. - Different commodity markets have different trends. For example, the soybean meal in the agricultural product market is relatively strong but is expected to fluctuate around 3000; the sugar market is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in Brazilian sugar production; the coal price in the black metal market may experience a second dip; and the silicon material market in the non - ferrous metal market is facing price decline risks [30][36][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said that Israel's attack on Iran is "very likely", and the US economic data is weak. The initial jobless claims and May PPI are weaker than expected. Gold prices are expected to be strong with increased volatility [14][15][16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that Israel may attack Iran accelerates the rise of geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the unemployment benefit application data is weak. The US stock market is still in a volatile situation, and it is not recommended to chase high [22][23][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 1193 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The long - term bonds lack the driving force to break through directly. The market is expected to be volatile in the near future, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raise the soybean production forecasts of Brazil and Argentina respectively. The domestic soybean meal is stronger than the external market but is expected to fluctuate around 3000 [28][29][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is expected to propose a biodiesel quota lower than 5.25 billion gallons. Investors holding long positions are advised to exit [31][33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The market expects an increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [36][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal price in the northern port market is temporarily stable, but it may experience a second dip due to factors such as weak power consumption demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron plan to merge. The iron ore price is expected to decline slightly with the weakening of terminal demand, but the decline will be gentle [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The short - to medium - term pig price may be pessimistic, but the supply pressure may ease in the third to fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased, but the performance of building materials and coils is differentiated. The steel price is expected to be weak with fluctuations [44]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. The CS07 - C07 is expected to be in low - level fluctuation [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises has decreased, and the corn inventory is tightening. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with fluctuations [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The price of N - type silicon wafers has slightly decreased. The spot market is bearish in the short term, but the price decline may stimulate silicon material manufacturers to cut production. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is considered [49][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, and the demand is still weak. The disk price is expected to be in low - level fluctuation, and shorting on rebounds can be considered [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The short - term fundamental support exists, and it is recommended to wait and see. Options can be used to replace futures positions, and shorting on rebounds can be considered in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The inventory pressure in June has been significantly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price has oscillated upwards, and the supply is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has fluctuated widely, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong in supply and weak in demand. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the arrival situation in Shanghai [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and the disk is expected to be weak with fluctuations [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration organizes hydrogen energy pilot projects. The CEA is expected to be volatile in the short term [68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The demand for PTA is in the off - season, and the supply has increased. The short - term price faces pressure, and long - term long positions can be considered on dips [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount on the disk will limit the downward space [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline. The disk is expected to be volatile [78][79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC has slightly increased, and the disk is expected to be volatile [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The pre - sales of urea production enterprises have decreased. The urea price is expected to be weak in the long term, and attention can be paid to the possibility of policy relaxation [80][82]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The supply pressure of bottle chips is large, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to build long positions on dips to expand the processing fee [85]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price has declined significantly, and the market is in weak and stable adjustment. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term [86]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price has slightly decreased. The demand will decline seasonally, and the price is expected to be weak [87][88].

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that the bond market faces a risk of "collapse" if the U.S. government fails to control the growing federal deficit, sparking widespread discussion and varied reactions [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Dimon's comments reflect the sentiment on Wall Street during a period of significant turmoil in the bond market, with long-term bond yields rising above 5% in late May, nearing the highest levels since 2007, indicating investor concerns over holding these securities amid increasing budget deficits [2] - Despite a successful auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds on June 12, concerns remain about the demand for long-term bonds from other countries, as rising yields are attributed to a slowing U.S. economy and persistent inflation above expectations [5] - The volatility in long-term bond yields is more pronounced compared to short-term bonds, as long-term bonds typically offer higher interest rates due to their longer repayment periods, leading to increased investor anxiety regarding U.S. Treasury securities [5] Group 2: Global Debt Concerns - The global debt level has reached alarming heights, with the International Institute of Finance (IIF) projecting a record $324 trillion in global debt by Q1 2025, driven by borrowing from countries like China, France, and Germany [6] - Rising inflation and interest rates make it increasingly difficult to sustain such high levels of borrowing, with concerns that continued high bond yields and poor fiscal management could lead to unmanageable debt repayment costs [6][7] - Moody's downgraded the last highest credit rating for the U.S. due to fears that the expanding debt and deficit could undermine the country's status as a primary destination for global capital [7] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The impact of high borrowing costs on long-term bonds issued during a period of ultra-low interest rates remains uncertain, with rising yields causing unpredictable consequences in the bond market [8] - The ongoing inflation post-pandemic and potential trade policies could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to higher bond yields, while also risking economic activity and complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [8]

纵观投资历史，每一轮牛熊交替都是一次财富的重新洗牌。唯有深谙攻守之道的投资者，才能在 惊涛骇浪中稳住航向，做到少亏多赚，让财富在岁月的沉淀中稳步增长。股神巴菲特就是最好的 例证，他在美股多轮牛熊轮回中进行了成功的攻守切换，实现财富的跨越式增长，比如2007年伯 克希尔.哈撒韦账上积累了400多亿美元的现金，2008年全球金融危机爆发后大量股票跌成了白菜 价，巴菲特果断出手扫货，危机过后赚的盆满钵满。 以下文章来源于二鸟说 ，作者二鸟说 二鸟说 . 专注于基金投资，秉承长期投资，价值投资，稳健投资的原则，合理进行大类资产配置，科学的择基， 适当择时，实现资产长期稳健增值。 攻守平衡，让防守型资产成为组合的"定海神针" 在风云变幻的资本市场中，进攻与防守如同硬币的两面，缺一不可。当"黑天鹅"在天空盘旋，"灰 犀牛"在暗处蛰伏，地缘冲突中硝烟弥漫，那些看似"保守"的避险资产，实则是投资者手中的"诺 亚方舟"。避险资产凭借与风险资产的低相关性以及穿越周期的稳定性，如同坚固的盾牌，为投资 组合筑起防护墙，守护着投资者的资产安全。 因此在充满不确定性的投资征途上，学会攻守平衡，让防守型资产成为投资组合中的"定海神 针"， ...

据环球网财经报道，6月10日，世界银行发布最新《全球经济展望》报告，将2025年全球经济增长预期从1月预测的2.7%下调至2.3%。这一增速仅优于2009 年金融危机和2020年疫情衰退时期，预示2020年代可能成为自上世纪60年代以来经济表现最差的十年。 无独有偶，华尔街顶级大佬、摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在当地时间11日警告称，随着特朗普颁布的关税措施持续产生影响，美国的经济数据可能很快 就会变得令人担忧。戴蒙称，"美国真实的数据会很快急剧恶化。" 世行： 华尔街大佬： 美国经济面临滞胀风险，市场现在过于乐观 与世界银行的预测相呼应，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在6月11日接受采访时警告，美国经济可能很快"恶化"。他特别提到，特朗普政府的高关税和移民 驱逐政策可能推高通胀，同时抑制经济增长，增加"滞胀"风险（即经济停滞与高通胀并存）。戴蒙表示，尽管5月消费者价格指数显示通胀有所降温，但此 时关税的全面影响尚未显现，"企业投资和消费者信心可能在未来几个月受到重创。" ▲当地时间5月20日，德国埃姆登港，大众汽车集团的新车。 根据世界银行对关税战影响的测算，如果2026年和2027年的全球经济增长态势也符合 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 市场情绪回暖，商品整体上涨为主 ——中信期货晨报20250612 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 中国 11 20 10 17 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3878.8 | 0.98% | 0.614 | 1 48% | 0.52% | 2108% | | | 上证50期货 | 2682.4 | 0.84% ...

报告称，黄金在各国外汇储备中的占比明显上升，2024年全球储备资产中黄金占比达20%，超过欧元的 16%，仅低于美元的46%，成为全球第二大储备资产。报告还指出，全球央行购金量连续三年超1000 吨，是21世纪10年代年均水平的两倍，购金速度创历史新高。目前全球央行持有的黄金储备已经达到 3.6万吨，接近二战后布雷顿森林体系时期的历史最高水平。而全球央行增持黄金的主要原因是规避地 缘政治风险与分散投资，同时，担心遭到制裁、预期全球货币体系将发生重大变化等因素加速了多国央 行增持黄金的速度。 消息面上，据央视新闻，当地时间6月11日，欧洲央行发布题为《欧元的国际地位》的年度报告。受多 重因素影响，多国央行近期大举增持黄金，加上金价飙升，黄金已取代欧元，成为全球第二大储备资 产，仅次于美元。报告指出，2024年美元在世界各国外汇储备中占比46%，比前一年小幅下降。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 国新证券表示，近期黄金价格波动源于全球宏观风险、政策博弈与资金行为等多重因素交织。尽管短期 面临回调压力，但黄金作为对冲货币信用风险与滞胀的核心资产，长 ...