1. Report Overview - Report Title: "Container Shipping Index Daily Report" [1] - Date: May 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices changed little, and the index decline may be due to the cooling of the rush - shipping expectation on the US route. Shipping companies have a willingness to support prices in June. The Maersk's online large - container quote on the European route exceeded market expectations, while most other shipping companies' quotes remained stable. The US line trade data declined, but the export peak - season rush shipping may not be falsified due to the time - lag effect of the Sino - US trade friction easing on May 12. The June contract should follow the delivery logic, and if the price increase is verified, it may have a small upward space. The far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly affected by the expectation of the US route rush shipping, and their price centers may rise if the June price is strong [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Spot prices were stable, and the index decline was related to the US route. Shipping companies' price - support intention in June was obvious. The 6 - month contract was based on delivery logic, and the far - month contracts were influenced by the US route rush - shipping expectation [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From May 19th to 23rd, the China export container shipping market improved, with most long - haul routes' freight rates rising. In April, the industrial added - value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. On May 23rd, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 7.2%. In the European route, the eurozone's economic recovery faced challenges, but the freight rate increased by 14.1%. The Mediterranean route's freight rate rose by 11.8%. The North American route was supported by Sino - US cooperation, and the freight rates to the US West and East increased by 6.0% and 5.3% respectively. The SCFI index rose for three consecutive weeks. Shipping companies planned to increase freight rates on the US and European routes in June. The EU's new policy on personal direct - mail parcels may impact the European small - package market [9][10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) 3.3.1集运现货价格 (Container Shipping Spot Prices) - From May 19th to May 26th, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) decreased by 1.4%, while that for the US West route (basic ports) increased by 18.9% [12]. 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 (Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes) - Provided the trading data of EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 contracts on May 27th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6]. 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 (Shipping - related Data Charts) - Included charts of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures contracts, global container capacity, container ship orders, and shipping freight rates [13][16][17][21]

Group 1 - The release of the "Joint Statement on China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" has led to significant tariff reductions on certain export goods to the US, providing substantial benefits to foreign trade enterprises [1] - Huizhou export companies are seizing this opportunity by accelerating their export pace and utilizing cross-border e-commerce platforms and overseas warehouses to capture market share and reduce transportation costs [1] - Guangdong Plavei Biotechnology Group Co., Ltd. has seen a notable increase in orders from the US, with their products, including bath balls for children, being a significant part of their sales [3][4] Group 2 - Since the tariff reductions, Plavei has experienced a 30% increase in order volume, with weekly shipments reaching around ten containers [6] - The company has adjusted its production schedule to accommodate the surge in orders, implementing two shifts and operating machinery 24 hours a day to ensure timely delivery [6] - Plavei has been focusing on the US market since its establishment in 2016, building a strong customer base and brand reputation, but has faced challenges due to international trade uncertainties [8] Group 3 - The international logistics situation has become tense, with shipping prices from Yantian Port to the US West Coast rising from $1,500 to $3,500 per container [10] - Huizhou's Daoyang Foreign Trade Service Co., Ltd. is helping local export companies mitigate costs and risks by utilizing overseas warehouses in the US [10][12] - The Huizhou government is promoting a multi-dimensional policy support system to stabilize foreign trade and expand domestic demand, including initiatives to facilitate online and offline sales channels for local enterprises [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil (2509 Contract)**: Short - term may fluctuate and consolidate [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2] - **Corn**: After a short - term price drop, there is a demand for a rebound; adopt a band - trading strategy [3] - **Copper**: The copper price has not completely shaken off the influence of the moving average; set the upper limit of the moving average system as the overall defense line [4] - **Lithium Carbonate (2507 Contract)**: May fluctuate weakly; consider shorting on rallies [6][7] - **Rebar**: The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the price; adopt a strategy of buying on dips at low levels [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply is abundant; prices may fluctuate weakly at low levels [9] - **Iron Ore (2509)**: Short - term may fluctuate weakly; traders are advised to be cautious [10] - **Crude Oil (WTI Main Contract)**: May fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel [11] - **Rubber**: Overall supply exceeds demand; pay attention to the correction market under the pressure level [12][13] - **PVC**: The fundamentals remain weak; the futures price may fluctuate at low levels [14] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term [15] 3. Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **International Soybeans**: It is the sowing and growing season for US soybeans and the harvesting and exporting season for South American soybeans. The South American new crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared with 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - **Domestic Industry**: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end. Pay attention to the potential increase in soybean oil inventory after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 2,880 yuan/ton (up 20), Tianjin 2,970 yuan/ton (up 20), Rizhao 2,920 yuan/ton (up 40), and Dongguan 2,920 yuan/ton (up 20) [2] - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. The price of US soybeans has risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the production areas. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil refinery operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. Downstream enterprises will adopt a just - in - time procurement and rolling replenishment strategy [2] Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,195 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, and 2,414 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region [3] - **Market Analysis**: From the external market, there is an expectation of looser corn imports in the medium - to - long - term due to the Sino - US joint statement, but the negative impact on the domestic futures price is relatively limited. The May USDA report has raised the US production and ending inventory, which is negative for the US corn futures price. Domestically, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak [3] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,930 - 78,140 yuan, down 50. The import copper ore index is - 44.28, down 1.23 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The global tariff confrontation is gradually easing, which is beneficial to the commodity market. Domestic policies are supportive, but raw material supply issues persist, and the copper market is in a complex state of game between reality and expectation, and between the domestic and foreign markets [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60,850 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 2,150 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded due to the rapid decline in lithium salt prices. The supply is high, and the demand improvement is insufficient. The inventory is accumulating [6] Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170. The Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the rebar mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving. The cost of steel is dynamically changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Iron Ore Price Index (Platts) is 99.7. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 757, and the price of Australian iron ore fines (62% Fe) is 759 [10] - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipment volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased slightly but the procurement is still cautious, and the overseas demand is differentiated. The US tariff policy has increased price volatility [10] Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The resurgence of twists in the US - Iran negotiation has boosted oil prices, but the overall oil price is still fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to exceed demand, and the price center may move down, but there is technical support at $55 per barrel for the WTI main contract [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation and the supply situation in domestic and Southeast Asian production areas lead to an overall supply - surplus situation. The potential impact of US auto tariffs on demand is a concern [12][13] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,760 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton month - on - month. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [14] - **Market Analysis**: The production enterprise operating rate has decreased slightly, the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the inventory has decreased [14] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.25 yuan/ton, down 5.94 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **Market Analysis**: The supply has decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]

那么，如何看待这个情况？ 有分析认为，特朗普政府反复无常的政策，已经让美国商界成为惊弓之鸟，谁都不知道接下来会发生什 么，也无法预测这次中美关税休战会维持多久。因此，美国企业决定抢在特朗普变脸前，尽可能把中国 的货运过来。显然，市场对中美贸易前景依然持悲观态度，都认为其政策的不稳定性对经贸的负面影响 没有结束。然而，美国的消费需求是有限的，中美关税休战不能刺激更大的消费需求。而且，美国经济 已经因为关税战受到伤害，需要很长时间才能修复，这会让美国的消费信心和需求双双下滑。这个时 候，美企抢购中国货，会带来运输和储备成本的增加，负担变得更大。这个情况，就像人得了心律不齐 的病，如果症状多次出现，有一天会引发心脏骤停的极端情况。 而在另一边，欧盟的想法出现了变化。在看到特朗普政府对华让步后，在"跪与不跪"中纠结的欧盟，觉 得"中国行，我也行"，也想要与美国达成"好的协议"，而且还能拿到比中国更好的条件。欧美贸易负责 人巴拉诺夫斯基声称，美国先后与英国和中国达成了协议，这让欧盟看到了积极的因素。但他又表示， 中英从美国这里得到的条件，"并不能让欧盟满意"，因此我们吸取了一个教训：不要急于行动。瑞典贸 易部长则进一步 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant reduction in bilateral tariffs between China and the United States, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and suspending 24% of "reciprocal tariffs," effective May 14 [1] - Following the tariff reductions, there has been a dramatic increase in trade activity, with container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. surging nearly 300% [1] - The article emphasizes the need for foreign trade enterprises to maintain a keen market sense amidst external uncertainties, indicating that a self-reform process within China's foreign trade industry has already begun [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the recent policy adjustments have activated the previously stagnant China-U.S. trade market, leading to a surge in orders for foreign trade enterprises and full-capacity operations in factories [1] - It notes that the global shipping market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices soaring due to increased demand for shipping services [1]

美能源行业公开抗命，中国官方点名警告李嘉诚，不要有侥幸心理。美国的能源行业为何会公开抵制政府命令？这与前期轰轰烈烈的"卖港案"又有什么联系 呢？ 据多家媒体报道，由于中美之间的关税战影响，两国之间的能源贸易受到了严重的打击，根据《纽约时报》、彭博社等媒体的报道，自从2月10日开始，中 国已经连续70天没有从美国进口哪怕一船液化天然气（LNG），创下了五年以来的最长纪录。 根据数据统计，在2023年，美国超过澳大利亚一跃成为世界最大的天然气出口国，也就是在这一年，中国船企在全球LNG船只领域的市场份额占到了35%， 也就是说中美两国原本应该在生产和运输两端各自深耕，但是现在特朗普却要横插一脚，想要打击中国在海运领域的主导地位，但是却误判了形势，遭到了 自己人的反对。 这件事情却足以给我们敲响警钟，按照特朗普的个性，他能够在美国境内对中国船只征收停靠费，那么在美国企业控制的海外港口当然也存在这种可能。这 不由得让人联想到不久前的长和与贝莱德之间的港口交易，假如当时没有国家市场监管局的紧急介入叫停了这笔交易，一旦真的由美国财团控制了位于巴拿 马运河的主要港口，那么中国的船只在通过或者停靠的时候，是不是也要被无端征收 ...

Core Insights - The recent pause in tariffs between China and the U.S. has created a valuable "foreign trade window" for businesses, leading to a surge in demand for shipping and logistics services [1][10][12] - Companies are experiencing a significant increase in orders, with some reporting a 30% rise in order volume since the trade talks [11][19] - The logistics and shipping sectors are particularly busy, with container bookings from China to the U.S. increasing by nearly 300% in a recent week [4][10] Shipping and Logistics - Shipping companies are adjusting their capacities to meet the rising demand, with some reporting a doubling of bookings for freight from China to the U.S. [1][4] - The Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is experiencing a busy period, with a reported throughput of 998,000 standard containers in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [4][19] - Freight rates for shipping to the U.S. have surged, with costs for the West Coast reaching approximately $6,000 per standard container and the East Coast around $7,000, both doubling from earlier this year [6][8] Export Trends - U.S. retailers are actively seeking to replenish inventory ahead of the holiday season, with a notable increase in inquiries for products from China [10][11] - Various sectors, including toys, clothing, and food products, are seeing a rise in orders as businesses aim to capitalize on the temporary tariff relief [10][11] - Companies are reporting tight shipping space, with some logistics firms experiencing a backlog in shipping requests [6][10] Market Sentiment - Many Chinese exporters are optimistic about the U.S. market, with expectations of continued demand despite the uncertainty surrounding future tariffs [15][19] - The sentiment among exporters is that the trade relationship will improve, as both sides recognize the mutual benefits of trade [15][20] - Companies are exploring new markets and diversifying their export strategies to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [19][20]

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 590.5 billion, 197.3 billion, and 151.8 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 501.2 billion, 171.1 billion, and 35.7 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 122.2 billion, with a net financing amount of -11.2 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates rose last week, influenced by factors such as the Sino-US Geneva joint statement, fluctuations in funding rates, the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts, and April credit data [2] Liquidity Tracking - Liquidity conditions shifted from loose to tight last week, as the demand for funds from reverse repos, MLF maturities, and government bond payments partially offset the increase in supply from the reserve requirement ratio cuts, leading to a marginal tightening in the latter half of the week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Sino-US Geneva joint statement canceled 91% of countervailing tariffs and exempted 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [4] - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, and total social financing reached 1.2 trillion [4] Overseas Market - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating; however, the Sino-US negotiations boosted risk appetite, resulting in a 5.3% increase in the S&P 500 for the week and a 6 basis points rise in 10-year US Treasury yields [5] Equity Market - A-shares were positively impacted by the unexpected results of Sino-US negotiations, with major indices experiencing fluctuations; the total A-share index rose by 0.72%, the CSI 300 by 1.12%, and the ChiNext by 1.38%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board fell by 1.10% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.27 trillion, down by 87.158 billion week-on-week [6] - As of May 15, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares was 1.796728 trillion, slightly reduced by 410 million from May 8 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The 90-day tariff exemption period between China and the US is expected to stimulate exports, reducing the risk of economic slowdown in the short term, which is the macro backdrop for the recent marginal tightening of liquidity [7] - Despite insufficient credit demand, weak real estate sales, and persistently low prices, there is no basis for significant tightening of funds [7] - Future broad interest rates, including deposit and loan rates, are expected to follow policy rate cuts, and the urgency for counter-cyclical policies is reduced due to the export stimulus [7] - The bond market may provide good entry opportunities if it overprices the temporary tightening due to tax periods and payments [7] - In the convertible bond market, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase, with recent valuations slightly compressed, but still supported by supply-demand dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of trade between China and the U.S. following the reduction of tariffs, leading to a significant increase in shipping prices and a shortage of available containers [1][5][6] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1479.39 points on May 16, marking a 10% increase from May 9, with shipping rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast surging by 31.7% [1] - Shipping executives in Singapore and London reported an approximate 8% increase in shipping rates from China to the U.S. West Coast, with plans for further increases of up to 50% in the next ten days [4] Group 2 - The rapid rebound in U.S.-China trade is evidenced by a surge in orders, with companies like Shanghai Weida receiving large orders immediately after the tariff reduction announcement [5][7] - U.S. retailers are experiencing a "rush to ship" phenomenon, driven by heightened anxiety over economic policy uncertainty, leading to potential congestion at ports and disruptions in global supply chains [6][7] - China's manufacturing sector is highlighted as irreplaceable in the global market, with a complete industrial chain that has maintained the largest manufacturing scale for 15 consecutive years, emphasizing the mutual dependency between U.S. and Chinese businesses [7]

Group 1 - The report from Bank of Singapore indicates that despite easing US-China trade tensions, the US economy's uncertain growth outlook and high fiscal deficit continue to exert structural depreciation pressure on the US dollar [1][2] - The report forecasts that the euro may rise to 1.23 against the dollar and the dollar may fall to 132 against the yen in the next 12 months due to weak economic conditions and reduced asset allocation by non-US investors [1] - The effective average tariff rate in the US has decreased from approximately 18% at the beginning of the year to nearly 8%, but remains significantly higher than the 2% to 3% levels seen before 2018 [1] Group 2 - Concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy are reflected in rising long-term Treasury yields, with government debt as a percentage of GDP returning to levels seen during World War II [2] - The forecast for the USD/CNY exchange rate has been adjusted from 7.40 to 7.10, reflecting improved US-China relations, although China is unlikely to favor a rapid appreciation of the yuan [2] - The report highlights the accumulation of risks associated with the US twin deficits (fiscal and current account), suggesting that unless US bond yields rise further, the dollar may struggle to attract sufficient external capital to maintain exchange rate stability [2]