流动性日报 | 2025-06-20 市场流动性概况 2025-06-19，股指板块成交5693.34亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.12%；持仓金额9864.78亿元，较上一交易日变动 +2.20%；成交持仓比为57.10%。 国债板块成交2540.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.28%；持仓金额8742.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.82%；成交持 仓比为29.27%。 基本金属板块成交1859.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.64%；持仓金额3868.02亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.90%；成 交持仓比为67.16%。 贵金属板块成交4591.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.23%；持仓金额4557.51亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.77%；成 交持仓比为119.19%。 能源化工板块成交7503.48亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.89%；持仓金额4063.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.91%；成 交持仓比为122.49%。 农产品板块成交2905.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.91%；持仓金额5740.24亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.79%；成交 持仓比为44.37%。 黑色建材板块成交1774.4 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) shows an upward trend in most tenors, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [1] - The overnight Hibor increased by 1 basis point to 1.50000% [1] - The one-week Hibor rose slightly to 1.61273%, while the two-week Hibor reached 1.63303%, marking the highest level since June 10 [1] Group 2 - The one-year Hibor saw a small increase to 1.97379% [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) liquidity through the 200 billion RMB daytime repurchase agreement has been fully utilized [1]

近日，微盘股指数悄然间创下新高，然而，随着大盘经历了两日的调整后，微盘股已回撤两日，且行情下 跌的弹性更为明显。 多家公募认为，小微盘股行情近两个月快速修复，主要受多重因素共同驱动，其中流动性或为主要原因。然 而，因小微盘对资金承载力量有限，在年内频创新高的背景下，公募基金却难以与微盘股行情"共振"，虽然个 别基金重仓了微盘股取得了不错业绩，但当前多以限购方式闭门谢客。 当前，多家机构对微盘股的后市意见存在分歧，有研报认为支撑微盘股抱团上涨的因素正在出现裂纹，亦有基 金提示：如果参与者抱团现象不断加剧，超过了小微盘策略所能容纳的极限，就会出现周期的反复。 微盘股指数持续走高，公募这样看 在近日的回暖势头中，微盘股指数悄然间持续走高，并在6月17日创下了历史新高。此外，代表中小盘风格的 中证2000、国证2000指数，自从4月8日以来分别上涨了16.11%、13.27%，远超同期沪深相关指数的涨幅。 而前述基金中，多只年内取得了不错的业绩，如诺安多策略涨超34%，中信保诚多策略涨超26%等，但多只基 金当前亦处于大额限购状态。 本月初，诺安基金公告，6月5日起对诺安多策基金A类基金份额、C类基金份额的大额申购（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% during the June 2025 meeting, aligning with market expectations, while concerns over "stagflation" risks remain high, making the threshold for restarting the rate cut cycle quite elevated [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Predictions and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts indicate a downward revision in growth predictions and an upward adjustment in inflation and unemployment rate forecasts, reflecting a more hawkish stance [3][4]. - The Fed has lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, while raising the core PCE inflation forecast for the same years by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points [3]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been increased by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a more cautious outlook on the labor market [3]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to continue reaching historical highs due to factors such as potential U.S. "hard landing," dollar depreciation, and renewed Fed rate cuts, which are favorable for gold prices [2]. - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to see upward opportunities in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks during the Fed's rate cut cycle, driven by policy guidance and improving profit margins [2]. - The U.S. stock market faces significant adjustment risks due to "stagflation," which may pressure both earnings and valuations, necessitating a reassessment of valuation levels [2]. Group 3: Tariff Impacts and Inflation Concerns - The impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the summer, with the Fed acknowledging that high tariffs are likely to increase inflation and exert pressure on economic activity [4]. - The Fed's monetary policy guidance suggests that rate cuts may not come quickly unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market or increased economic downward pressure [4]. - The potential for a "liquidity trap" scenario is highlighted, where rising tariffs could exacerbate "stagflation" risks, leading to a possible second round of rate hikes [5].

明晟公司（MSCI）：将继续关注埃及外汇市场的流动性，市场监管某些领域缺乏明确性。 ...

[Table_Summary] 截至今年 6 月 18 日，10 年期国债收益率接近关键点位 1.6%。债市收益率有望挑战前低：首 先，社融增速可能逐渐筑顶，预计社融增速 7-8 月达到全年高点 9.0%，年底回落至 8.3%左右； 其次，流动性的充裕以及债市短端的回落，这使得长债调不深，6 月下旬债市也往往抢跑。前 低可以挑战，但难以突破：一方面债市对基本面小幅度变化的定价钝化，另一方面国债买卖在 债市逼近前期低点情况下重启概率可能并不高。建议 10 年期国债在 1.65%附近逢调配置，在 逼近 1.6%关键点位时适当止盈，从静态角度可以关注 20 年国债收益率的配置价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 债市收益率逼近前低时建议止盈 报告要点 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 债市收益率逼近前低时建议止盈 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

Germany - The German Ministry of Finance has issued new regulations regarding the taxation of specific crypto assets, replacing the previous version from May 2022 [4] - The new regulations introduce detailed compliance obligations, including tax reporting, collaboration, and record-keeping requirements [5] - The regulations clarify the tax treatment of passive staking income and the criteria for determining transaction value, while non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and liquidity mining activities are currently excluded from these regulations [6] Australia - The Australian government has announced a two-year freeze on beer excise tax rates, halting tax increases on draft beer, which is beneficial for beer drinkers, brewers, and the hospitality industry [11] - Historically, beer excise tax rates have increased twice a year in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with an 8% increase over the past year [11] - The government is also raising the excise tax exemption cap for eligible alcohol manufacturers to AUD 400,000, effective July 1, 2026 [11] Brazil - The Brazilian government has proposed a bill to adjust personal income tax policies, expanding the tax-exempt range for low-income earners and increasing tax burdens on high-income individuals [14] - The bill aims to raise the tax-exempt income threshold for low-income individuals to BRL 5,000, up from BRL 2,824, with full exemption for those earning below this threshold [14] - If approved, non-resident individuals receiving dividend income will be subject to a 10% withholding tax, and high-income earners will face an additional tax on exempt income, potentially raising their effective tax rate to 37.5% [15][16]

港元兑美元为联系汇率制度，遵循双向浮动区间（7.75-7.85），港元兑美元触及7.75触发"强方兑换保 证"，触及7.85则触发"弱方兑换保证"，以保证港元兑美元的汇率稳定性。 4月30日，港元兑美元汇率触及7.75，触发"强方兑换保证" （1）25年以来，南向资金持续流入港股，各路资金流入香港，港元需求持续上行 （2）4月30日，港元兑美元汇率触及7.75强方兑换保证，5月3日-6日，金管局四次累计投放1294亿港 元，港元流动性扩张 （3）港元投放大幅拉低HIBOR利率（1个月期HIBOR从4月的3.65%骤降至0.67%，隔夜利率接近 0%），导致港美利差（HIBOR-SOFR）迅速走阔，引发了港美的套息交易。 在套息交易的驱动下，港 汇贬值，开始又逼近"弱方兑换保证" 当前，港元兑美元触及7.85，预期触发"弱方兑换保证"，流动性收紧预期升温 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 4月30日，港币兑美元汇率触及7.75的"强方兑换保证"，5月3日至6日香港金融监管局投放1294亿港元， HIBOR利率大幅下行，港美利差走阔，引发港美套息交易，此后港汇贬值，当前，港 ...

配置建议 （一）黄金：静待美国"硬着陆"，金价将继续创历史新高，无论美国"硬着陆"或"滞胀"均利好黄金，未来驱动力 包括美元趋势性贬值、各国央行购金支撑、美联储降息周期的重新推进、美元流动性外溢后的"二次拉动"等，具体参考我 们一系列的黄金推荐报告；（二）医药（尤其创新药）：美联储降息周期下，A 股、港股创新药均存在上涨机会且具备超额收 益，短看政策引导毛利率改善预期及 IRR 回升的"主题投资"，中长期毛利率+营收有望实质性改善，景气投资开启。；（三） 美股：潜在调整风险偏大，"滞胀"风险或导致美股分子、分母端均面临压力，科技巨头资本开支预期边际放缓也放大业绩 不确定性，估值水平需要重新修正；（四）美债：年内只有静待通胀回落方可形成趋势性配置机会，在此之前甚至可能因为 利息偿还风险存在利率迅速冲高的可能性。 当地时间 6 月 18 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率区间维持在 4.25%-4.50%，这是自 2024 年 9 月本轮降息周期开 启以来的连续第四次"暂停"。2024 年 9 月至 12 月，美联储连续三次会议分别降息 50/25/25bps，累计幅度达 100bps。 美联储重启降息周期门槛较高 ...

土耳其央行：流动性状况将继续受到密切监控。 ...