Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fuel oil supply from the Middle East is restricted, intensifying concerns about recent market supply disruptions. The market structures of Asian high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have further strengthened, and the spot price spread of fuel oil has reached a high. Terminal marine fuel demand is strong, and buyers are stocking up before short - term price increases. The market is in a supply shortage state. [3] - Middle East tensions have worsened, some oil - producing countries are starting to cut production passively, market sentiment is high, and enterprises are hoarding. Fuel oil prices are expected to rise in the short term, with high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil expected to hit the daily limit today. The FU2605 contract is expected to run in the 4500 - 4549 range, and the LU2605 contract in the 5000 - 5032 range. [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Futures Market**: The previous FU and LU主力合约期货 prices were 3888 and 4376 respectively, and the current values are 4437 and 4999, with increases of 549 (14.12%) and 623 (14.24%) respectively. The previous FU and LU basis were 578 and 884, and the current values are 1581 and 1865, with increases of 1002.53 (173.31%) and 981 (111%) respectively. [5] - **Spot Market**: The previous prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel, Singapore high - sulfur fuel, Singapore low - sulfur fuel, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel, and Singapore diesel were 790, 850, 646.6, 765.5, 548.92, and 1110.92 respectively. The current values are 1110, 1200, 877.87, 989.37, 772.77, and 1129.41, with increases of 320 (40.51%), 350 (41.18%), 231.27 (35.77%), 223.87 (29.24%), 223.85 (40.78%), and 18.49 (1.66%) respectively. [6] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Middle East tensions and poor channel traffic [4] - **Likely to be Bearish**: The Trump administration's TACO situation and upstream crude oil being under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has restricted fuel oil supply from the Middle East, and terminal marine fuel demand is strong, with the market in a supply shortage state [3] - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 578 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3] - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3] - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main positions are short, changing from long to short [3] 5. Spread Data - A chart of the high - and low - sulfur futures price spread is provided, but specific data is not detailed [9] 6. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on March 4, 2026, was 2574.9 million barrels, an increase of 187 million barrels. Historical inventory data from December 24, 2025, to March 4, 2026, is also provided. [3][7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（3.2~3.6） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡下行，沪铜主力合约下跌2.76%，收报于101050元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，全球不确定行 仍存，中东事件再起风云。国内方面，消费将进入旺季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内 现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存284325吨，上周大幅增加，上期所 铜库存较上周增33616吨至425145吨。 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 期货主力 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 202 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Despite the impact of RKAB and other news, rapid changes in the macro - environment led to a relatively weak performance under the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. In March, production is scheduled to increase, domestic inventories continue to accumulate, and market supply is sufficient. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, but there is a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia due to RKAB policy changes and sluggish domestic transactions caused by cost inversion. Nickel iron prices continue to rebound with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly declined, indicating weak demand. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, and nickel iron prices are rebounding, providing strong cost - line support. Stainless steel inventories have slightly declined, and demand is weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On March 6, the price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 137,140, up 870 from March 5; the price of LME nickel was 17,450, up 235; the price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,210, up 95. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 136,850, up 1100, and the cold - rolled coil index was 13,801, up 75 [9]. - **Spot**: On March 6, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,500, up 150; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 143,950, up 300; the price of 1 imported nickel was 137,000, up 200; the price of nickel beans was 139,650, up 200. Cold - rolled coil 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou remained unchanged at 15,100, and the price in Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,150 [9]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 287,550 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1 ton to 341,118 tons [11][12]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 618,600 tons, in Foshan was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 22,300 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 716,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons [16]. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 51,953 tons, a decrease of 122 tons [17]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On March 6, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 74 US dollars per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 1,086.93 yuan per nickel point, up 1.12, and the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [19]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost of stainless steel was 14,151 yuan, the cost of scrap - steel production was 14,298 yuan, and the cost of low - nickel + pure - nickel production was 18,015 yuan [21]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 136,457 yuan per ton [24].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [2] - Inter - period: 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage under supply influence [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, the ethylene glycol (EG) load has decreased, the de - stocking amplitude has increased, and prices have continued to rise [1] - The domestic EG supply has decreased from its high level, and imports are expected to further shrink under the influence of the situation in Iran. Demand is gradually recovering after the holiday, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking actions and textile and clothing export orders after the nominal tariff reduction [1] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,184 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton or 2.60% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,170 yuan/ton, up 196 yuan/ton or 4.93%. The spot basis of EG in East China was - 31 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars/ton. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 739 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 International Price Difference No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.002 billion tons, up 20,000 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 108,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 16,000 tons. The inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The market has entered a bearish season, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] - The fundamentals are neutral with strong spot prices, inventory accumulation in Qingdao, and high tire operating rates [6] - The basis is bullish with a spot price of 16,700 and a basis of 145 [6] - The inventory situation is neutral with an increase in SHFE inventory week - on - week and a decrease year - on - year, and an increase in Qingdao inventory both week - on - week and year - on - year [6] - The market trend on the disk is neutral with the 20 - day line upward and the price running below the 20 - day line [6] - The main positions are bullish with the main net long and a reduction in long positions [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided 2. Fundamental Data - Spot prices of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on March 5 [10] - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [16] - Qingdao area inventory is accumulating [19] - Import volume has rebounded [22] - Automobile production and sales have declined [25][28] - Tire production has increased year - on - year [31] - Tire industry exports have rebounded [34] 3. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - Bearish factors: bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] 4. Basis - The basis strengthened on March 5 [37]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has fallen below the 20 - day moving average again and fluctuates around it. Supply is sufficient with increasing production in January and rising inventories. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, but there is a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and poor trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices have rebounded, and the cost line is supported and slightly shifted upwards. Stainless steel consumption was poor during the Spring Festival, and inventory has increased significantly. If inventory digestion is ineffective, it may suppress price rebounds. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. Overall, it is bearish, but the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with a decrease in long positions. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: Spot stainless steel prices have risen. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, nickel - iron prices have rebounded, and the cost line has strong support. Stainless steel inventory continues to rise. It is neutral, but the basis is bullish. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2604 fluctuates widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures prices**: On March 5th, the SHFE nickel main contract was at 136,270, down 1,140 from March 4th; the LME nickel was at 17,215, down 335; the stainless steel main contract was at 14,115, down 105. The nickel index was at 135,750, down 1,850, and the cold - rolled coil index was at 13,726, down 123 [7]. - **Spot prices**: On March 5th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 140,350, down 200; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 143,650, down 450; 1 imported nickel was at 136,800, down 250; nickel beans were at 139,450, down 200. Cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi was at 15,100, up 50; in Foshan it was at 15,100, unchanged; in Hangzhou it was at 15,100, up 50; in Shanghai it was at 15,150, up 50 [7]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 27th, the SHFE nickel inventory was 60,791 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,131 tons, an increase of 2,016 tons and 673 tons respectively. On March 5th, LME nickel inventory was 287,550 tons (unchanged), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 53,567 tons, down 65 tons, and the total inventory was 341,117 tons, down 65 tons [9][10]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 27th, the inventory in Wuxi was 646,700 tons, in Foshan was 377,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,172,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 728,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,600 tons. On March 5th, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 52,075 tons, an increase of 544 tons [14][15]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 74 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 1,085.81 yuan per nickel point, up 0.24; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [18]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,151 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 14,298 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 18,009 yuan [20]. Nickel Import Cost Estimation - The import price was converted to 134,557 yuan per ton [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. Due to the upgraded situation in the Middle East and the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the external crude oil price has gapped up, which provides significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today, with cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are slow, while the packaging film has low - load rigid - demand operation and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector has started production one after another. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 73, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.4 tons (-3.3), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [6] - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable. The demand in the north recovers relatively fast but with limited increment. The BOPP resumes work quickly but faces competition and some finished - product inventory pressure. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7500 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 42, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.5 tons (-8.5), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [8] - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7320, up 100; the price of the 05 contract is 7393, up 38; the basis is - 73, up 62; the warehouse receipt is 8709, down 241; the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 59.4 tons, down 3.3 [9] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7500, up 150; the price of the 05 contract is 7458, down 48; the basis is 42, up 198; the warehouse receipt is 18584, down 2260; the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 65.5 tons, down 8.5 [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, while the import dependence shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, and the import dependence also shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in different sectors, including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, precious metals and new energy, industrial products, and agricultural products, under the backdrop of the escalating Middle - East situation and other factors. It provides trend judgments and logic viewpoints for each commodity, suggesting corresponding investment strategies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Pay attention to the emotional resonance of Asia - Pacific stock markets, especially the market - rescue strategies in South Korea, and the evolution of the Middle - East conflict. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated short - term interest rate risks. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision recently [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The deterioration of the Middle - East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, and the continuous accumulation of copper inventories at home and abroad has led to a weak adjustment of copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Although the Middle - East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle - East has been increasing, and the rising energy prices have increased costs, so aluminum prices have continued to rise. Keep an eye on the supply disturbance in the Middle - East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, but the inventory has further accumulated, and it will operate in the short - term in a volatile manner [1]. - **Zinc**: The escalation of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has raised concerns about zinc ore supply in Iran, which may boost zinc prices in the short term. After the holiday, pay attention to the resumption of work and production of downstream industries [1]. - **Nickel**: Geopolitical risks have increased market risk aversion. The expectation of tightened RKAB quotas for nickel mines in Indonesia has resurfaced, and the approval of RKAB quotas is slow during Ramadan. Nickel ore premiums remain high. The nickel price may fluctuate widely, mainly affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is suggested to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen after the holiday. Steel mills reduced production in February but plan to increase production significantly in March. Social inventories have increased after the holiday. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities at low prices and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation is beneficial to war metals, and tin is expected to continue to strengthen. In the short - term high - volatility situation, it is recommended that investors focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)**: The inflation risk has eased, the conflict between the US and Iran continues, the US dollar index has declined, and precious metal prices have rebounded from the bottom. They are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and silicone in December have declined [1]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude due to liquidity risks [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Energy storage demand is strong, there is battery export rush, and there are disturbances at the mining end [1]. Industrial Products - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The inventory of rebar is at a low level with weak demand expectations, and the price will fluctuate. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is at a historically high level, and it is necessary to test the de - stocking pressure. The price will fluctuate. After taking profit on the long - basis position, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is significant upward pressure, and the oversupply logic remains unchanged. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then enter short - positions [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fermentation of the geopolitical conflict has driven up the prices of energy - chemical products, which in turn has led to the strengthening of coking coal and coke. Although there is news of the first - round price cut for spot goods, the market is focused on the development of the Middle - East situation. Avoid short - positions in energy - related varieties and reduce long - positions in a timely manner. The industry can establish a cash - and - carry arbitrage position in the 05 contract [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The short - term supply and demand of glass are both weak, the expected reduction in supply has increased, and the cost is supported by the strengthening of energy prices due to the intensified geopolitical conflict. Soda ash mainly follows the trend of glass. In the short term, it is affected by the geopolitical conflict, and in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is looser, and the price is under pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The sharp increase in crude oil prices will drive up the prices of oils and fats by increasing the demand expectation from the biodiesel end. However, the current fundamentals of oils and fats are under pressure, such as the high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia, the pressure of the production season and consumption off - season. Be vigilant against the decline of oils and fats after the stagnation of crude oil prices [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force". In the future, pay attention to the policies in the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter next year, the intention of cotton - planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the peak seasons [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1]. - **Corn**: The progress of grain sales at the grassroots level in the Northeast is relatively fast, and the pressure of ground - stored grain is expected to be limited. The downstream aquaculture inventory has not significantly decreased, which supports the feed demand. After the holiday, the inventories of channels and downstream are low, and the restocking demand supports the futures price to be strong in a volatile manner. However, be vigilant against the negative feedback of high corn prices, such as the release of policy grains like aged rice and the change in import policy orientation. Be cautious when going long unilaterally [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The Middle - East conflict has brought a risk premium to commodities and increased freight rates. However, under the pressure of the Brazilian harvest, the FOB price of soybeans is under pressure. Under the suppression of the global large supply, the upward space of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term. In the later stage, pay attention to the release of Brazilian selling pressure, Sino - US trade dynamics, and domestic reserve release [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for softwood pulp during the Spring Festival, and the previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Pay attention to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price of logs has risen. The log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the expectation of an increase in the overseas offer price is relatively clear, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand, the slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy Chemical - **Fuel Oil**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the concern of oil and gas supply interruption caused by the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz transportation, and the positive sentiment in the commodity market with the recovery of capital risk - appetite have affected the price [1]. - **Asphalt**: The import of Iranian asphalt has little impact on the domestic market, but the price of crude oil, which affects the cost, is transmitted to asphalt, and the impact in the energy varieties is relatively weak [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, and the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is still in a loss state, with an increased expectation of maintenance and production reduction. There is an expectation of phased inventory accumulation in the fundamentals of both BD and BR. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitics, the short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - **PTA**: Asian aromatics have been significantly strengthened by geopolitics, some overseas PTA factories are facing operational pressure due to poor profits, and the supply is expected to tighten from March to May when the major refinery turnaround season comes [1]. - **Ethylene**: Although the situation in Iran is unclear and the crude oil market is tense, the production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined, and the demand for naphtha is continuously weak. Some large - scale ethylene production facilities are restarting or newly supplying [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the domestic demand has declined. The tense geopolitical situation in the Middle - East brings short - term energy price fluctuation risks, and the short - fiber price will continue to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors have worried the market about refinery load reduction. Although the production economy of factories remains stable, the demand is expected to gradually recover from the end of February [1]. - **Methanol**: The export sentiment has eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, so the upward space is limited, but there is support from anti - dumping and the cost end. The Iranian import has a significant impact, and the conflict has caused some domestic methanol production facilities to stop work, but the domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a historically high level [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production capacity put into operation, and the differential electricity price in the Northwest is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. The intensification of geopolitical conflicts has increased freight rates, and the ethylene - based method is facing a shortage of raw materials [1]. - **LPG**: The 3 - month CP price is flat, and the near - month purchase is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has rebounded, and the PG trend is strong. The overseas cold - wave driving logic is gradually weakening, and the basis is expected to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to seasonally recover, which suppresses the upward movement of the LPG futures price in the short term. The ports are continuously de - stocking, but the domestic civil LPG is sufficient, resulting in the differentiation of the internal and external market trends [1]. Others - **Shipping**: The price increase has generally stabilized, but it is currently affected by the war sentiment and is quite enthusiastic. The Houthi armed forces have regained control of the Red Sea, and airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market's trading logic is diverging, with resource endowment and strategic attributes being re - priced, and China's market purchasing power and seasonal restocking rhythm being key factors. The copper price is supported by tight supply at the mine end but is pressured by high inventory [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to concerns about supply contraction from the US - Iran war. The supply and demand situation is complex, with increasing domestic production capacity and high inventory [2]. - The zinc market is under pressure from inventory accumulation, and the export expectation restricts the rebound space. The supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue, and short - term consolidation is likely [2]. - The lead market is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Although there is an expectation of inventory reduction after the Lantern Festival, the rebound space is limited due to external excess pressure [2]. - The nickel market lacks independent drivers and rebounds following the external situation. The market is waiting and seeing [2]. - The tin market has a strong performance in the equity market, but the physical supply - demand situation is weak. The price may face resistance at the previous high, and tin stocks may be positively affected [2]. - The lithium carbonate market has a volatile futures price, and the short - term uncertainty is high. The overall inventory is decreasing, but the inventory structure has changed [2]. - The industrial silicon market is under pressure due to weak demand, high inventory, and expected production resumption. It may maintain a low - level oscillation [2]. - The polysilicon market has weak spot trading, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market**: Before and after the Spring Festival, the copper market was relatively quiet and oscillating. After the festival, the trading center of Shanghai copper rose. The market is affected by factors such as Trump's tariff ruling and the US - Iran military conflict [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The copper concentrate processing fee is in the negative range, and the supply at the mine end is tight. However, the global visible inventory is at a high level, which may suppress the copper price [2]. - **Trend**: The copper price may test the long - term moving average support due to high inventory, despite the support from the moving average dense area [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly, but the fundamental driving force is limited [2]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased, and some overseas plants have production changes such as shutdown and restart [2]. - **Demand**: Processing enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the domestic apparent consumption has a negative year - on - year growth at the beginning of the year [2]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The inventory has increased significantly after the Spring Festival, and the spot is at a discount. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger this week [2]. Zinc - **Trend**: The internal and external trends were different last week, and the short - term is in an interval oscillation. The export expectation restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic factory output has decreased. The domestic mine is resuming production, and the TC of domestic and imported mines has changed [2]. - **Consumption**: The downstream resumption of work is slow, and it is expected to fully resume work after the Lantern Festival. The inventory reduction rhythm needs to be tracked [2]. Lead - **Market**: Both the internal and external markets are in a low - level oscillation under the dominance of oversupply. The domestic market is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, and the direction is not clear [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open. The domestic mine is resuming production, and the TC is expected to be stable at a low level. The supply pressure is not large [2]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' resumption of work is slow, and it is expected to increase procurement after the Lantern Festival. The inventory reduction needs to be tracked [2]. - **Trend**: The lead price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures**: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures rebounded last week, with reduced trading volume and increased positions [2]. - **Macro and Demand**: The Iran issue boosts market sentiment, and there is an optimistic expectation for demand recovery. Downstream stainless steel plants are resuming work and digesting inventory [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The spot price has different premiums and discounts, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased [2]. - **Trend**: The nickel market lacks independent drivers and rebounds following the external situation [2]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price has a large two - way fluctuation, and the technical form has become stronger again. The rise is mainly driven by the excellent performance of the domestic equity market [2]. - **Supply**: Myanmar's tin production is resuming, and Indonesia's export policy is expected to be stable [2]. - **Consumption**: The domestic downstream resumption of work is accelerating, but it is difficult to digest the high tin price. The inventory has increased [2]. - **Trend**: The tin price may face resistance at the previous high, and tin stocks may be positively affected [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures rebounded last week, with active trading and a fragile position structure [2]. - **Spot**: The spot price has increased, but the overall trading is light due to the wait - and - see attitude of the upstream and downstream [2]. - **Macro and Demand**: The Iran issue boosts market sentiment, but the annual sales performance is poor, and the power battery orders may decline [2]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased, but the inventory structure has changed, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down [2]. - **Trend**: The short - term uncertainty of the lithium carbonate futures price is high [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The silicon price is weakly sorted, and enterprises are mainly waiting and seeing [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The raw materials are stable, the production in Xinjiang is expected to increase, but the downstream demand is weak [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has increased, and the factory inventory in Yunnan and Xinjiang has also increased [2]. - **Trend**: The market may maintain a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, production resumption expectation, and high inventory pressure [2]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon futures are weakly declining, and the spot trading is light [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in February decreased, and the production in March is expected to increase slightly. The downstream demand support is limited [2]. - **Trend**: The price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined. The sudden conflict between the US and Iran has caused market turmoil, with panic and inflation expectations affecting the global financial market. LME copper inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 5,287 tons to 295,881 tons. In the short term, there are both macro - risks and fundamental pressures, and the accumulation of inventory may trigger a revision of the previous supply - demand expectations. The copper price may have a second - round correction risk, but when the market has priced in the risks and the inventory accumulation ends, and positive signals are released by China and the US, the market may enter a stage of rising risk preference. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. The price of SMM alumina stopped falling and rebounded. The spot discount of aluminum ingots remained stable. The reduction of production by large northern alumina plants and the seasonal consumption of raw material inventory by electrolytic aluminum plants led to a slight reduction in alumina inventory. However, the accumulation of futures warehouse receipts and the resumption of some overhauled production capacity after the festival will still suppress the upside. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly, and the alumina price will run weakly and stably. Due to the concentrated arrival of goods after the festival and insufficient manpower at the station, the logistics turnover efficiency is limited, and it is expected that the aluminum ingot inventory will continue to accumulate, with the peak likely to appear in mid - to - late March. The short - term supply - demand is in a mismatch stage, and attention should be paid to the improvement time of the aluminum ingot inventory accumulation efficiency [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 2.77% to $17,205 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 2.55% to 136,300 yuan per ton. The LME inventory remained at 287,976 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 590 tons to 53,721 tons. The tightening of nickel ore quotas has led to a shortage of nickel ore supply, and the premium of nickel ore and nickel iron prices have strengthened. The cost is the core support for the nickel price. Currently, the inventory pressure of primary nickel is still large. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line and the inventory situation of primary nickel. If the subsequent visible inventory can be significantly reduced, it may have a positive feedback on the price, and overseas macro - risks should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price decline, macro - impact from US - Iran conflict, inventory increase, short - term risk of price correction, long - term opportunity for risk preference recovery, and a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price strength, alumina price rebound, inventory changes, short - term supply - demand mismatch, and attention to inventory accumulation efficiency [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price decline, inventory changes, cost support, and attention to inventory and cost - line trading opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 245 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper increased by 45 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 986 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,287 tons, and social inventory increased by 23,000 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, the premium of 1 lead ingot in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of lead concentrate remained stable. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,888 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased, the spot premium remained unchanged, the price of Shandong alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of pre - baked anodes decreased by 28 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,490 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 72,000 tons and alumina increased by 67,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,450 yuan/ton, the premium of 1 imported nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of nickel ore increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 590 tons, and social inventory increased by 2,036 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 is not available, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged, the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the zinc alloy and zinc oxide prices also decreased. The domestic TC remained unchanged, the inventory of SHFE increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 31,500 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 is not available, the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%, the SMM spot price increased by 4,000 yuan/ton, and the price of tin concentrate increased by 13,400 yuan/ton. The inventory of SHFE increased by 12,253 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][15][16][18][19]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][21][22][23][24][25]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][27][28][29][30][31]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][33][34][35][36][37]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][40][41][43][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Master of Science, current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, senior researcher of precious metals, intermediate investment analyst of gold, and has won many industry awards. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience and has published many professional articles [46]. - **Wang Heng**: Master of Finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, current non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won industry awards and has in - depth research in hedging accounting and information disclosure [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: Master of Science from the University of Warwick, UK, current non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She has won industry awards and focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [47].