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大越期货PVC期货早报-20250918
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 03:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's overall view on PVC investment is bearish [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4944 - 5002 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Bullish factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2516.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Basis - On September 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 123 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. This is bearish [9]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9]. 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. This is neutral [9]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. This is bearish [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the PVC market on the previous day, including prices, spreads, operating rates, and inventory data of different types and regions [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [17][20][23]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [38][40]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the trading volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and operating rates of downstream products such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also analyzes real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [42][45][49][52]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [53]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads [55]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025 [59].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250918
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed's monetary policy adjustments and industry - specific factors jointly affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, most non - ferrous metals show different trends in price, inventory, and market sentiment, with short - term price trends varying from metal to metal [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - The Fed's interest rate cut and the rate dot - plot's indication of future cuts led to copper price adjustments. LME copper closed down 1.41% to $9974/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79880 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment was weak. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 79200 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9880 - 10100 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices generally declined. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2689/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20750 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the market transaction was not ideal. With downstream entering the traditional peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strongly supported. The domestic main contract is expected to run between 20700 - 21000 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2660 - 2720 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Lead concentrate raw materials are in short supply, and the downstream battery inventory is decreasing. Although there was some emotional disturbance in the non - ferrous metal sector before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the overall sentiment is still positive, and the improved industry data supports the upward breakthrough of lead prices [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Zinc concentrate inventory is rising, and processing fees are differentiated. The import window is closed, and the zinc ore surplus is alleviated. Although the SHFE zinc increase is limited, if the zinc ingot export window opens and zinc ore imports are restricted, the domestic zinc price may rise with the sector [6]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The supply of tin is significantly reduced due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Although the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors have weak demand, the demand has marginally improved with the arrival of the peak season, so the price is expected to be strong [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long term, factors such as the Fed's easing expectations and the RKAB approval are expected to support the nickel price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a volatile adjustment. The fundamental improvement has been reflected in the market, and there is currently no new marginal change to drive the price up. Attention should be paid to industry information and macro - expectation changes. The reference operating range of the GZFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 70800 - 75800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is weak due to the downturn in the real estate industry. Although the demand from the new energy vehicle industry is increasing, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. The downstream consumption has not improved significantly, and the market is waiting and watching [16][17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported by the supply disturbance of scrap aluminum at home and abroad. With the exchange reducing the margin ratio, market activity is increasing [19].
黑色建材日报-20250918
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].
乙二醇短期弱势难改
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-17 23:35
Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol futures prices are experiencing a volatile consolidation phase, influenced by increased supply from new projects and declining industry profits [1][2][8] Supply - Ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is at 66.55%, down 0.9 percentage points week-on-week; total production is 404,600 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [2] - The production capacity of coal-based ethylene glycol is at 65.96%, down 2.47% week-on-week, while oil-integrated facilities show a slight increase in utilization [2] - Overall, supply remains relatively ample, with expectations of slight production growth as some coal chemical facilities resume operations [2][8] Inventory - As of September 15, the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is 395,600 tons, an increase of 32,400 tons from the previous week [4] Demand - Domestic polyester industry weekly production is 1,546,800 tons, a slight increase of 0.74% week-on-week, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.9% [5] - Demand in the weaving sector shows a slight recovery, with average order days increasing to 14.55 days, although large orders remain scarce [7] Cost Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production, but geopolitical risks and seasonal declines in oil consumption are putting pressure on international oil prices [1] - The cost structure for ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to falling prices of crude oil and coal [8] Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a decrease in domestic ethylene glycol production with a potential increase in imports, maintaining stable overall supply [8] - The weak price trend for ethylene glycol is likely to persist, with forecasts suggesting continued downward pressure [8]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250917
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 09:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually becoming evident. After the price cuts of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, the spot offers are gradually declining, which may prompt some downstream enterprises to start stocking up. As a result, the inventories of producers and traders may slightly decrease [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly, and most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to build up inventory for the "National Day" holiday and fill the gaps in previous orders. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,590 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous period. The position of the main contract is 66,899 yuan/ton, up 2,683 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between October and November for synthetic rubber is 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 110 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 68.47 dollars/barrel, up 1.03 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 64.52 dollars/barrel, up 1.22 dollars/barrel [2]. - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 604.88 dollars/ton, down 3.62 dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 dollars/ton, unchanged. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, down 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 25,600 tons, down 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, up 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, down 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 34,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [2]. - The producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 26,300 tons, up 1,650 tons. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 8,210 tons, up 950 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces. The monthly production of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.83 days, down 0.05 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.94 days, up 0.09 days [2]. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [2]. - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall production reached a high level this year [2].
有色早报-20250917
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:49
Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - ferrous metals morning report released on September 17, 2025, by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center [1] Group 2: Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 257, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3049. The LME inventory decreased by 1675 [1] - **Core View**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, breaking upward on Thursday and Friday. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream start - up weakened, and it was in the stage of consuming finished product inventory. Macroscopically, copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - expansion. After the FOMC meeting next week, pay attention to the possible phased realization of bullish factors. The copper price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters. If there is a callback after short - term bullish factors are realized, consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 1500 [1] - **Core View**: Supply increased slightly, with imports of aluminum ingots providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. In the short - term, the fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to demand. Hold at low prices in the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium remained at - 60, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots increased by 30, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 [1][2] - **Core View**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. On the supply side, the domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some production resistance. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further differentiate. In the short - term, it can be used as a short - side configuration, and the internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2] Group 5: Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1950 [3] - **Core View**: On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level. On the demand side, it was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. In terms of inventory, there was a slight accumulation in the domestic market and an increase in overseas warehouse receipts. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - aspect has rebounded. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils increased by 50, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coils increased by 50 [5][6] - **Core View**: On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6] Group 7: Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, and the LME inventory increased by 2225 [7] - **Core View**: This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries was tight. On the demand side, the inventory of battery finished products was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The supply is expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000. In September, there is an expectation of a peak season, but the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 [7] Group 8: Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot import earnings decreased by 2200.06, the spot export earnings increased by 1949.49, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9] - **Core View**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Overseas, the import from Wa State was less than 200 metal tons in August, and the supply of raw materials is expected to increase gradually after October. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuates. The LME inventory has rebounded from a low level. In the short - term, the domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 33 [10] - **Core View**: This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Currently, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. In the short - term, the supply and demand in September and October are still in a tight balance state. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [10] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 400, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 400, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 139 [12] - **Core View**: This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, miners are not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also have the sentiment of holding prices. The current basis level has strengthened slightly, and the supply of large - discount goods has decreased. The current contradiction is that under the background of over - capacity, the resource side faces phased compliance disturbances. In the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. The price elasticity is high after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is realized, and the price has strong downward support before the disturbances are realized [12]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250916
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 09:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot quotations gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up, and the inventories of production enterprises and trade may decrease slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week, and most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule this week, with the overall capacity utilization rate fluctuating slightly. The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 64,216, an increase of 45,431; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 67.44 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.45 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.3 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan is 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,600 tons, or 8.15%. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. Most tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have resumed normal operations, driving the increase in capacity utilization. In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2]
广发期货《金融》日报-20250915
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 11:42
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年9月15日 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 价去 | 66.30% | F期现价差 | 1.20 | -12.76 | 74.50% | | | | | | | | | H期视价差 | 0.06 | -7.06 | 53.60% | 57.30% | 朗现价差 | IC期现价差 | -9.64 | -7.75 | 85.20% | 72.40% | IM期现价差 | -30.08 | -18.00 | 70.00% | 48.50% | | 次月-当月 | -6.20 | 1.40 | 44.60% | 44.40% | 李月-当月 | - ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250915
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 11:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot offers gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up. The inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises may decrease slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. Most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels, driving up the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly [2]. - The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,705 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main contract is 18,785, a decrease of 2,274 [2]. - The spread between synthetic rubber contracts 10 - 11 is - 5 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons [2]. - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies show different changes, with some remaining unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. b. Spot Market - The prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions have changes, with some unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha, and butadiene show different changes, with some prices decreasing [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 5,350 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased by 0.54 percentage points to 50.64% [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 47 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is 3.45 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - The operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong show different changes, with the inventory days of semi - steel tires increasing slightly [2]. e. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 0.26 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.69 percentage points month - on - month and decreased by 7.31 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.57 percentage points month - on - month and increased by 4.23 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber output increased by 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some devices had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2].
需求恢复面临考验,乙二醇短期延续偏弱震荡预期
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 06:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand recovery of ethylene glycol is facing challenges, and it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Currently, ethylene glycol is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The cost side restricts the price from falling sharply, but there is no new cost support. The demand side lacks incremental boost, and the high inventory suppresses market sentiment. The short - term price may continue to oscillate at a low level, and if the demand fails to substantially improve, the lower support may be tested [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On September 12, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract oscillated downward to 4,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/0.7% from the previous day. The East China spot price also fell to 4,380 yuan/ton (-25 yuan), but the basis widened by 30 yuan to 138 yuan/ton. The inter - delivery spread showed an intensified contango, with the 5 - 9 spread widening negatively to - 89 yuan/ton, indicating deepening concerns about future supply [2] - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume of the main contract remained around 134,000 lots, while the open interest increased by 8,245 lots to 317,000 lots, suggesting intensified long - short game [2] - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 71.24%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based plants were flat at 74.6% and 66.74% respectively. The coal - based profit continued to be deeply in the red at 368 yuan/ton, with no further expansion of losses but lack of repair momentum [2] - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining flat for more than two weeks. Due to the off - season pressure in the terminal textile industry, the downstream replenishment demand was weak and could not effectively drive the raw materials [3] - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. Although the weekly arrival volume decreased by 39.7% to 101,700 tons, the port inventory accumulation reflected that the source digestion speed lagged far behind the arrival rhythm, highlighting the inventory pressure [3] - **震荡偏弱运行**: Ethylene glycol is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The coal - based loss restricts the price from falling sharply, but the fluctuations of crude oil and naphtha have not provided new cost support for oil - based profits. The polyester and loom loads are stable but lack incremental boost, and the high - level inventory suppresses market sentiment. The short - term price may continue to oscillate at a low level [3] Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main contract price of MEG futures was 4,272 yuan/ton on September 12, down 30 yuan (-0.7%) from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,380 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.57%) [4] - **价差情况**: The MEG basis widened by 30 yuan to 138 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 yuan to - 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 31 yuan to - 89 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan to 136 yuan/ton [4] - **利润情况**: The coal - based profit remained at - 368 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 71.2%, and the coal - based and oil - based operating rates were 66.7% and 74.6% respectively, all remaining unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was 63.4%, also unchanged [4] - **库存与到港量**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a surge of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [4] Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 12, the East China US - dollar market followed the domestic market to weaken. In the morning, the negotiation price of October shipments was in the range of 512 - 515 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, that of near - month shipments was in the range of 514 - 517 US dollars/ton, with no reported transactions [5] - On September 12, the mainstream market price fell, but the ethylene glycol price in the South China market had reached a low level, and the quotations of holders remained stable. The market negotiation atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,460 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 12, due to concerns about oversupply, the international crude oil price declined, the cost - side support weakened, and the spot basis was weak. The current negotiation price in East China was around 4,370 yuan/ton [5] - On September 12, the spot quotation in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market was lowered, with the average market price around 3,970 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [5] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The decrease in the main contract price and the increase in the basis may indicate that the spot is more resistant to decline or the market has a weak future expectation [22] - The increase in open interest and the significant change in the 5 - 9 spread may reflect the bearish sentiment towards the far - month contract [22] - The stable supply - side operating rate and the unchanged demand - side load, combined with the inventory accumulation, suggest weak demand and difficult de - stocking [23] - Given the high inventory pressure, weak demand, and certain cost - side support, the ethylene glycol price may continue to be weak and may even decline further [23]