2026 年第七周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数录得 100.03，在前期震荡调整后重新回到扩张区 间，显示短期经济运行的稳定性有所增强。在年末至年初阶段，ICHI 综合景气 指数呈现出反复震荡、中枢稳定的运行特征，本周整体延续这一格局。分项来 看，消费景气指数在前几周波动后本周小幅回升至 100.09，显示春年前消费活 动逐渐活跃，居民需求端韧性仍在，但修复节奏依然偏温和。投资景气指数在 年初几周出现阶段性修复，本周小幅回落至 99.95，反映投资节奏阶段性放缓， 内生扩张动能仍有待进一步巩固，但仍围绕中性水平运行。出口景气指数继续 上升，本周录得 100.1，显示外需韧性仍在，年初阶段出口运行相对平稳，短期 内并未出现明显走弱迹象，对整体景气形成支撑。生产景气指数则在 2025 年末 的修复后，于本周小幅回落至 100 附近，更多体现生产活动的季节性自然调 整。总体来看，最新一周景气指标并未出现趋势性变化，经济运行仍处于修复 与再平衡并行的阶段，短期波动主要由节奏切换和结构分化所驱动，整体特征 依然稳固。 2026 年 1 月，制造业 PMI、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指 ...

Dewi John LSEG Lipper欧洲区研究负责人 Luke Lu LSEG 信用研究与量化建模部门主管 Robin Marshall 富时罗素 全球投资研究部主管 Jharonne Martis LSEG 消费者研究部门主管 Plamen Mitkov LSEG 全球住房抵押支持证券（RMBS）研究团队负责人 Irene Shi LSEG 全球住房抵押支持证券（RMBS）研究高级经理 Tajinder Dhillon CFA，资深经理，收益与股票研究部门 Detlef Glow LSEG Lipper欧洲区研究主管 宏观方面 尽管仍存在全球性风险，包括地缘政治风险、美国乃至全球范围内可能出现的全面经济衰退风险等， 但到2026年，这些风险的严重程度相对较低。而且在传统的估值指标中，很难找到信用和股票市场存 在泡沫的有力证据。自2025年4月关税激增以来，全球金融状况已持续稳步改善，各国央行也已表 明，他们无意将资产负债表规模缩减至金融危机前的水平，以降低金融稳定风险。通胀率仍高于一些 央行的目标值，但几乎没有证据表明会重回高通胀状态。因此，如果2026年失业率上升速度加快，美 联储仍有进一步放宽政策 ...

Domestic Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with subway passenger volume up 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024, and domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500, a 1.6% increase year-on-year[2] - Movie ticket revenue has decreased by 37.2% year-on-year, averaging 62.245 million yuan per day[2] - Passenger car sales in January were 679,000 units, down 31.7% from the previous year[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1993.2, showing a marginal decline but significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1122.2, down 4.5% week-on-week and 16.4% year-on-year[2] - Port cargo throughput reached 281.597 million tons, a 25.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] Production Sector - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.55%[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 72.76%[2] - PTA production increased by 35,500 tons to 1.4639 million tons, with an operating rate of 76.29%[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, with pork prices down 1.12% week-on-week and vegetable prices down 1.46%[3][4] - Producer Price Index (PPI) shows significant increases in coking coal and coke prices, while non-ferrous metals have adjusted downwards due to a stronger dollar and seasonal demand decline[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations netted 756 billion yuan this week, with SHIBOR rates showing a seasonal decline[5] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 30-year yield at 2.2510% and the 10-year yield at 1.8102%[5] International Context - U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 57.3, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months[5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6%, indicating a return to expansion, with new orders and production indices showing significant growth[7]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月07日 宏观经济周报 开局遇冷，二月迎暖 2026 年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，其首季经济表现备受瞩目。从 1 月 数据看，经济呈现显著的结构性分化特征。一方面，战略性新兴产业采购经 理指数（EPMI）环比升幅与 2024 年同期基本持平（考虑到春节时点相近）， 开局势头总体稳健，其中采购量、进口及就业等分项表现较好。另一方面， 制造业 PMI 环比回落，走势明显弱于 2024 年同期，尤其在生产、新订单等 关键需求指标上表现偏弱。这一"新兴产业强于整体制造业"的格局，延续 并强化了经济结构优化的长期趋势。1 月价格端也呈现积极信号，出厂价格 与原材料购进价格表现强劲，显示"反内卷"政策在促进工业品价格企稳回 升方面成效进一步显现。整体来看，1 月经济在结构上延续优化，但总量层 面未能延续去年 12 月的扩张势头，复苏进程出现阶段性波折。 积极信号在 2 月首周开始显现，各领域经济活动出现广泛改善，内需与外贸 短期动能均表现强劲。首先，生产端景气度明显回升，基建、机电及纺织等 领域生产活动普遍走强。其次，消费端受节前备货、出行增加拉动，市内客 流与物流投递量同比显著增长， ...

等待地缘爆发 原油月报 2026/02/06 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 ...

另有广发证券内部人士向南方财经记者表示，近期，沈明高近期还会正常参加内部投研活动。 近日，有消息称，证券从业系统已查不到广发全球首席经济学家、产业研究院院长沈明高相关信息，引 起猜测。 对此，2月4日，广发证券（000776）方面向南方财经记者表示，沈明高博士自2026年2月起到达法定退 休年龄，不再担任公司全球首席经济学家、产业研究院院长职务，并非传闻的"离职"。 2017年6月，沈明高正式加入广发证券，出任全球首席经济学家，并领导产业研究院。2019年至2021年 间，他还曾兼任广发控股（香港）有限公司总经理。 沈明高长期从事宏观经济、发展经济学及金融市场研究。近期，他在接受采访时提到，广东作为市场化 改革走在前列的省份，在产业体系、外贸结构、金融支持体系方面具备基础优势。"十五五"时期广东可 以充分利用三大优势，即区位优势、产业应用场景优势以及地方政府负债率相对较低的优势，在"十五 五"期间为实现增长动能转换、创新角色转换走在全球前列。 沈明高出生于1965年，公开履历显示，他拥有扎实的学术积淀与丰富的业界从业经历。教育背景方面， 1985年，他获得南京农业大学农业经济学士，1988年获得中国社会科学院 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

在2月3日（周二），沪锌主力合约低开震荡后反弹遇阻，盘面继续承压。截至10：15分休盘，报价定格 在每吨25095元，下跌65元，跌幅仅为0.26%。长江有色金属数据显示，长江现货0#锌价报25070元/吨， 单日涨80元/吨；1#锌价报24970元/吨，同样单日涨80元/吨，这期现背离，进一步证明了期货市场仍在 宏观空头势力主导，让锌价的走势更加扑朔迷离。 宏观"风暴眼"：政策迷雾与经济变数 当下，宏观层面的种种因素就像一场暴风雨，无情地冲击着锌价这艘小船。市场所有目光都聚焦在被提 名人沃什身上，他就像一位神秘的舵手，其真实政策立场牵动着每一个投资者的心。他究竟会延续提名 时展现的"鸽派"降息倾向，为市场带来一丝温暖与宽松；还是回归早期"鹰派"作风，让市场感受到紧缩 的压力？尤其是他如何协调"降息"言论与"缩减资产负债表"的主张，更是成为了市场猜测的焦点。一旦 他释放出实质性收紧金融条件的信号，锌价这艘小船在短期内恐怕将面临狂风暴雨的侵袭，价格被压制 在低位难以动弹。 再把目光转向美国经济这片海洋。近期美国制造业虽有反弹的迹象，就像海面上偶尔泛起的浪花，看似 充满生机，但贸易政策不确定性引发的悲观情绪，以及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the entire industry is provided in the report. However, individual outlooks for each commodity are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to trade sideways [6]. - Protein Meal: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to trade sideways [9]. - Corn and Starch: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [12]. - Hogs: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [17]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. - Cotton: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [20]. - Sugar: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [21]. - Pulp: Expected to trade sideways [22]. - Double - Gum Paper: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. - Logs: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has turned negative recently, affecting the prices of various agricultural products. - Different agricultural products are influenced by a combination of macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal patterns [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Macro sentiment has weakened, leading to a significant correction in oil prices. - **Logic**: Crude oil decline and overall commodity market weakness have affected sentiment. For soybeans, Argentina's drought may reduce production, while the US biodiesel policy is yet to be finalized. Palm oil lacks new positive news after the previous rally. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to gradually recover. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to trade sideways. Consider buying on dips for hedging [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment is weak, and both soybean and rapeseed meals are trading lower. - **Logic**: Internationally, the macro environment has cooled, and the US soybean export is weak, while Brazil's harvest is increasing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal is under pressure, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to improve. - **Outlook**: Both soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to trade sideways [8][9]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and both futures and spot prices are trading weakly. - **Logic**: Downstream stocking is almost finished, and policy - grain auctions have lower trading rates. There are marginal negative factors such as increased upstream sales, sufficient downstream inventory, and the impact of imported grains. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [9][11][12]. Hogs - **View**: At the beginning of the month, the slaughter volume is slightly reduced, but inventory pressure remains. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs will be slaughtered as the Spring Festival approaches. In the medium - term, supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand and inventory show certain changes. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity atmosphere has turned negative, and rubber prices have followed suit. - **Logic**: The previous rally was driven by macro factors, and there has been no change in fundamentals. The current trading is mainly influenced by macro factors. Supply is relatively abundant, and the demand has not seen large - scale restocking. The most obvious negative factor is rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Although fundamental variables are limited, market attention has increased, and the market is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [15][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The medium - term logic remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The market was affected by the overall commodity sentiment, but the medium - term core logic of tight supply of butadiene in H1 2026 remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of butadiene is expected to improve, but short - term adjustments are needed. It is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. Cotton - **View**: It has adjusted downward following macro expectations, but the downward space is expected to be limited. - **Logic**: Supply - side processing is nearing completion, demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace. In the long - term, the market is expected to be tight - balanced in 25/26, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. Consider buying on dips [20]. Sugar - **View**: It is expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Consider short - selling on rallies [21]. Pulp - **View**: While most commodities have declined significantly, pulp has shown resistance. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market has affected pulp, but its decline is relatively limited. Demand is seasonally weakening, and there are more negative factors, but the increase in import costs provides some support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways [22]. Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The decline in the commodity market has put pressure on double - gum paper. - **Logic**: The market is following the macro trend. Before the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward or downward driver, with abundant supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. Logs - **View**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the market is trading strongly. - **Logic**: The expected increase in the next - period foreign quotation and the decrease in arrivals at major ports have led to a stronger spot market. There are also potential positive factors in the delivery aspect. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 4. Commodity Index Data - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2420.95, down 3.75%. The commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%, and the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62%. - The agricultural products index was 936.74 on February 2, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a 5 - day decline of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.40%, and a YTD increase of 0.40% [185][187].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, influenced by the new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies and the decline in tech stocks [1] - The rise in central bank gold purchases and gold ETF holdings is expected to support gold prices through 2026 [1] - The decline in London silver leasing rates is noted, while U.S. silver inventories are decreasing rapidly [1] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Hawkish macroeconomic sentiments are pressuring copper prices, with expectations of a strong dollar and market adjustments [2] - Despite the pressure, supply disruptions and a potential widening copper mine gap are expected to provide price support [2] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to tightening liquidity and a decrease in processing activity, with a 1.5% drop in comprehensive aluminum processing activity to 59.4% [2] Group 3: Tin and Energy Metals - Tin prices have significantly corrected due to macroeconomic sentiment shifts and speculative selling, with supply concerns easing as production resumes in Myanmar [2] - Lithium inventories are declining, indicating strong demand, while cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply [3] - The expectation of a reduction in battery export tax may lead to preemptive demand in the lithium market [3] Group 4: Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides are rising due to tight supply and pre-holiday stocking demands [4] - Tungsten prices are increasing sharply due to regulatory crackdowns on illegal mining and strong pre-holiday restocking [4] - The supply constraints and high costs are expected to keep tungsten prices elevated despite potential seasonal transaction volume reductions [4] Group 5: Uranium - The rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development are expected to maintain a persistent uranium supply-demand gap, with prices likely to rise [4]