Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. There were still global uncertainties. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the sharp rise of precious metals stimulated the increase of copper prices. Domestically, it was the off - season for consumption, and the downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was normal, mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, slightly increasing last week, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons compared with last week [4]. - In terms of supply - demand balance, it was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and tariff factors affected prices. Force majeure in Indonesian mines and the rise of precious metals stimulated price increases. Domestically, it was the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific content provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, it was in a tight balance, and in 2025, it would be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The PE market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The supply pressure continues to increase, while the demand support is insufficient. In the medium - and short - term, a bearish view is taken, and in the long - term, the supply pressure of non - standard PE products may suppress LLDPE prices [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The pressure is continuously increasing. There are few subsequent device maintenance plans, and the start - up rate is expected to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, new device startups are still concentrated, such as the upcoming startups of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [1]. - Demand side: The support is insufficient. Although the agricultural film industry is in the traditional peak season, the overall start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. After mid - November, the growth space for demand will be limited, and other downstream industries of PE have insufficient new orders [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Weak oscillation. The price range of L2601 is 6600 - 7000. The strategy is to short on rallies [10]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: No basis strategy; 1 - 5 reverse spread; short - term hedging arbitrage space is limited, and in the long - term, consider narrowing the L - P spread on the 05 contract [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [11]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: On Wednesday, affected by the news of gas restrictions on Iranian devices, the methanol futures market strengthened, and polyolefins briefly followed the upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - The start - up situation of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [12]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: This week, the futures market oscillated downward. The open interest increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top five long and short positions on the order book. The net long positions of the top five profitable seats slightly increased [17]. - **Basis structure**: The spot situation in East China improved and prices stabilized, but the situations in North and South China were still weak. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 32 yuan/ton (strengthened by 47 compared with last week), in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+107), and in South China was 248 yuan/ton (- 3) [20]. - **Spread structure**: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic market expectation for the subsequent macro - situation and the limited start - up of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines are compressed. Currently, the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. Since PE devices are not very sensitive to profit conditions, short - term losses usually do not lead to unexpected shutdowns, so PE lacks strong cost - side support in a downward market [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of PE is difficult to change. On the supply side, although device maintenance has increased recently, the high inventory capacity and the upcoming start - up of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, as well as the expected increase in imports after October, will further increase the total supply of PE. On the demand side, although the production and sales of agricultural films are still good, the subsequent growth is limited, and the support from other downstream industries of PE will gradually weaken [31]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Its Deduction - The current PE start - up rate is 82.56% (+1.69%). Multiple devices such as Fushun Petrochemical and ExxonMobil restarted at the beginning of the month, and the device maintenance volume decreased. It is expected that the device maintenance volume will continue to decrease, and with the upcoming start - up of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices, the supply pressure of PE will remain high [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Its Deduction - **Import**: The overseas market is in a loose pattern, and the continuous decline in PE prices has led to an influx of low - price goods into China. Therefore, PE imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Export**: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the total volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [43]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Its Deduction - The current average start - up rate of PE downstream industries is 45.75% (- 0.52%). The agricultural film industry is still in the peak season, but the start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. As the year - end approaches, the growth space for demand is limited, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up has weakened [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are under pressure to oscillate at a low level due to the game between high smelting inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. There is support below the nickel price while the inventory is accumulating at a high level, and the long - term volatility may increase [1]. - The stainless - steel fundamentals lack upward drivers, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The overall fundamentals still face pressure, and it is expected to be in a bottom - grinding state [2]. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Nickel Fundamentals - Refined nickel's internal and external explicit inventories are accumulating again, and the market expects a slowdown in implicit restocking. The supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak. The proportion of using ferronickel to replace iron plates in the nickel alloy end has increased, and the production of pure nickel is expected to increase. The expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term still restricts the upward elasticity of Shanghai nickel [1]. - Although the fundamentals of non - standard nickel have improved marginally, the conversion of refined nickel to non - standard nickel production has not yet resolved the inventory accumulation contradiction of refined nickel [1]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's supply governance policy makes short - term sellers lack confidence. The nickel ore premium has stabilized and even slightly increased, strengthening the support for the bottom of the nickel ore price [1]. Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers. The peak season is not prosperous, and it is gradually entering the off - season. The post - real - estate cycle consumption is weak, and the effectiveness of terminal subsidy policies is decreasing. The apparent consumption growth rate has slightly declined, and inventory accumulation mainly occurs in the factory warehouse. The overall fundamentals are under pressure [2]. - The supply elasticity is sufficient, and there is limited upward imagination space for stainless steel. The estimated supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus, and the cost has decreased slightly. The downward space is also limited [2]. Inventory Tracking - On November 7, China's 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1246 tons to 32,634 tons, the spot inventory increased by 988 tons to 14,276 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 300 tons to 3770 tons. The LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [3]. - On November 7, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by - 1, + 8, and 0 month - on - month to 4, 9, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory on November 7 changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.4 days, and the ternary material inventory on November 6 changed by - 0.2 month - on - month to 6.9 days [4]. - On October 31, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 29,564 tons, with a steady and slight increase month - on - month and a 27% year - on - year increase. In October, the SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a 9% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month increase. On November 6, the SMM stainless - steel social inventory remained stable with a slight decrease to 946,000 tons, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social total inventory was 1.034 million tons, with a 0.29% week - on - week increase, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 639,500 tons, with a 1.90% week - on - week decrease [4]. Market News - On September 12, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month [5]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [6]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees until 2025 [6]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed before November 15 this year. According to the transition clause, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the entry into force of this ministerial order can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31, 2026 [6]. - US President Trump claimed on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [6]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for projects producing restricted products through the OSS platform [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term macro - driving forces have weakened, steel mill profits are fragile, and production cuts are insufficient, especially the high supply - demand contradiction in the plate segment, which exerts pressure on iron ore demand. With supply remaining high, continuous port inventory accumulation, and the squeeze from the coking coal end, it is expected that the overall iron ore price will continue to show a weak - running trend [3][4][7]. - There are some positive factors, such as the rising basis and the long - term loose overseas monetary and fiscal policies. However, the negative factors dominate the current market situation [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: The PMI of both China and the US in October showed a month - on - month decline, indicating fluctuations in the global trade environment and a marginal slowdown in internal demand. Short - term market driving forces are on hold due to factors like Powell's hawkish stance and the risk of a US government shutdown, and risk appetite has declined [4]. - **Supply and inventory**: Port inventory has continued to accumulate to 15,624 tons, a month - on - month increase of 351 tons. The shipment volume remains at a high level, while the molten iron output is gradually decreasing, putting pressure on prices. The current high - price level encourages mainstream mines to maintain strong shipment willingness, and the port inventory accumulation pattern may continue [4][6]. - **Demand side**: The daily average molten iron output has decreased by 20,000 tons to 2.34 million tons. Some high - cost and severely loss - making steel mills have implemented marginal production cuts, and steel mill profits have slightly recovered but are still fragile. Further production cuts are needed to ease industrial chain contradictions [6]. - **Valuation level**: Coking coal remains strong, with a tight supply and low - inventory structure. The price difference between coking coal and iron ore in the 01 contract has continued to widen, squeezing steel mill profits and suppressing iron ore prices [7]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations Perform range - bound operations on the Iron Ore 2601 contract, with the range being [760, 810] [7]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations Provide risk management strategy recommendations for iron ore in November, including different scenarios, risk exposures, strategy recommendations, hedging tools, trading directions, hedging ratios, and recommended entry intervals [8]. 3.1.4 Core Data - **Black产业链成本利润表**: Data such as molten iron cost, blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit, blast furnace rebar profit, etc., show weekly and monthly changes [9]. - **Iron ore weekly shipment data**: Global, Australian, Brazilian, and other regions' shipment volumes show different degrees of changes [10][11]. - **Iron ore demand weekly data**: Indicators such as daily average port clearance volume, daily average molten iron output, blast furnace operating rate, etc., have corresponding changes [12]. - **Iron ore inventory weekly data**: Port inventory, trade ore proportion, and steel mill inventory data show changes in inventory status [13]. 3.2 Supply 3.2.1 Global Shipment Analysis Analyze the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of global iron ore shipments through various charts [14][15][16]. 3.2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis Analyze the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of shipments from the four major iron ore mines [17][18][19]. 3.2.3 Non - mainstream Ore Shipment Analysis Examine the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of non - mainstream ore shipments, and note that the Platts iron ore index leads non - mainstream shipments by about 5 weeks [23][24][26]. 3.2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis Analyze the seasonality and year - on - year changes of the arrival volume at 47 ports, the number of ships in port, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [29][30][31]. 3.2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis Examine the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight, ship speed, and global weekly floating inventory [34][35][40]. 3.2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis Analyze the seasonality and year - on - year changes of the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines [41][42][45]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Molten Iron Analysis Analyze the seasonality, over - seasonality, and year - on - year changes of the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises, and make predictions on blast furnace maintenance [46][47][49]. 3.3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis Analyze the relationship between molten iron output and iron ore prices, and the seasonality of various steel product profits and their leading effects on production [50][52][53]. 3.3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis - **Rebar**: Analyze the production, consumption, inventory, and cost of rebar [65][66][67]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Examine the production, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [72][73][74]. - **Medium - thick plate**: Analyze the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [75][77][78]. - **Other steel products**: Analyze the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various other steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, galvanized coils, etc. [81][82][85]. 3.3.4 Export Analysis Analyze the monthly export volume of steel products, port departure volume, export orders, and export profits [100][101][103]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis 3.4.1 Port Inventory Analysis Analyze the seasonality, structure, and over - seasonality of iron ore port inventory, as well as the relationship between inventory and prices [104][105][106]. 3.4.2 Other Inventory Analysis Examine the seasonality of trade ore inventory, steel mill inventory, and inventory turnover days [121][122][127]. 3.5 Valuation Analysis 3.5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provide the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, showing the basis and delivery profit of different iron ore varieties [128]. - Analyze the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts [129][130]. 3.5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio Analyze the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [131][132][135]. 3.5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis Analyze the seasonality of the price difference between coking coal and iron ore of different contracts and the cost - sharing relationship between coking coal and iron ore [138][139][144]. 3.5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis Analyze the iron - scrap price difference, scrap steel cost - effectiveness, and the relationship between scrap steel consumption ratio and iron - scrap price difference [145][146][147].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6810 yuan/ton, closed at 6805 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 305,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6891 yuan/ton, closed at 6886 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.36%), with an open interest of 84,049 lots and an increase of 4,698 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6930 yuan/ton, closed at 6935 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.40%), with an open interest of 2,088 lots and an increase of 68 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6490 yuan/ton, closed at 6471 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.57%), with an open interest of 652,784 lots and an increase of 8,183 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6605 yuan/ton, closed at 6592 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with an open interest of 147,404 lots and an increase of 1,154 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6624 yuan/ton, closed at 6622 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.45%), with an open interest of 7,179 lots and a decrease of 46 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6805 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 305,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots. PP2601 closed at 6471 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.57%), with an open interest of 652,800 lots and an increase of 818,000 lots [6] - Futures remained weak, which was negative for market sentiment. Most trade offers fell, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with only rigid demand purchases [6] - There are no new investment plans in November. Some maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and the device operating load may continue to increase, and the pressure of new capacity expansion will intensify the imbalance between supply and demand [6] - The seasonal peak of agricultural film production has passed, and the demand for pipes has increased first and then decreased. The production of PP woven bags has been boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. The downstream is dominated by fear of falling prices, and the willingness to stock up is low, which further drags down the transaction price [6] - In general, under the dual effects of weak cost support and continuous loose supply and demand, the downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue [6] Group 4: Industry News - On November 6, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 695,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day; the inventory at the same time last year was 720,000 tons [7] - The PE market price continued to be weak. The price of LLDPE in North China was 6,780 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,150 - 7,500 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,650 - 5,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream demand continued to be weak, and the willingness of production enterprises to sell at a discount was obvious. The decline of propylene price widened, and the downstream factories were more wait - and - see, and the overall market transaction was still average [7] - The PP market remained weak, and the prices of some grades dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6,220 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,330 - 6,550 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,390 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend on November 6, 2025, with the technology sector leading the way. The market is expected to experience some short - term fluctuations but has limited downside risks. For the bond market, there are opportunities for appropriate long - positions and positive arbitrage strategies. In the precious metals market, there is a long - term bullish outlook, but short - term oscillations are expected. Different commodities in the futures market have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions provided for each [3][5][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On November 6, the A - share market rose across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.97% at 4007.76 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also closed higher, and the basis discounts of the main contracts were repaired. The semiconductor industry chain rebounded strongly, while the consumer industry corrected [3][4] - **News**: Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce held talks with the US agricultural trade delegation. Overseas, the US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection [4] - **Funding**: The trading volume of the A - share market increased by over 300 billion yuan, with a total turnover of 2.06 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe as the market may experience a slight callback after reaching a high and is waiting to stabilize [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed lower, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose [6] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. However, the inter - bank liquidity remained loose [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to take appropriate long - positions in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the spot - futures strategy [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US labor market contraction signals emerged in October, and the UK central bank paused interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. The international gold price closed at $3975.88 per ounce, down 0.07%, and the international silver price closed at $47.983 per ounce, up 0.02% [8][9][10] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, the international gold price is expected to oscillate between $3900 - $4030, and the silver price between $47 - $49 [10] - **Funding**: ETF funds have flowed out due to the recent price fluctuations, and investors' attitudes are cautious [12] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies showed certain ranges [13] - **Container Shipping Index**: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 7.92% month - on - month, while the US - West route index increased by 14.43% [13] - **Fundamentals**: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year, and the demand in different regions showed different characteristics as reflected by PMI data [14] - **Logic**: The futures market declined, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 1800 - 2000 points [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy the December contract at low prices in the short - term [14] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 6, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased, and downstream demand showed a short - term recovery [14] - **Macro**: The US market liquidity tightened, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was being heard, which may affect copper prices [15] - **Supply**: The copper concentrate spot TC remained low. The electrolytic copper production in October decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [16] - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and downstream demand showed strong resilience [16][17] - **Inventory**: LME, domestic social, and COMEX copper inventories all increased [17] - **Logic**: The copper price is expected to show an upward trend in the long - term due to supply - demand contradictions, but short - term price increases may suppress demand [18] - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the resistance at 86500 [18] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [18] Alumina - **Spot**: On November 6, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with a shrinking north - south price difference [18] - **Supply**: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased, and the operating rate decreased slightly. In November, the supply is expected to remain in surplus, but the situation may improve [19] - **Inventory**: Alumina inventories in ports, plants, and warehouses all increased [19] - **Logic**: The alumina price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - **View**: Weakly oscillating [20] Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the spot premium decreased [22] - **Supply**: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [22] - **Demand**: Downstream processing industries entered the peak season, but the weekly operating rate declined [22] - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumer area inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased [23] - **Logic**: The price increase of the main contract was driven by overseas news, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate between 20500 - 21500 yuan/ton [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [25] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [25] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [25] - **Supply**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the supply of raw materials remained tight [25] - **Demand**: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the order volume did not increase significantly [26] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased slightly, and the absolute inventory remained high [26] - **Logic**: The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD01 and short on AL01 when the spread is above 550 [28] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [28] Zinc - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots remained stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [28] - **Supply**: The zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, and the zinc production from January to October increased. The subsequent supply increase may be limited [29] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations [30] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventories decreased, while LME inventories were basically stable [30] - **Logic**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but may remain range - bound. Upward or downward breakthroughs depend on demand improvement or inventory changes [31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton [31] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [31] Tin - **Spot**: On November 6, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was mainly for rigid demand [31] - **Supply**: In September, the domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved slightly, but the overall supply remained tight [32] - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the solder operating rate increased, but the traditional consumer electronics and other fields had weak demand. The LME inventory increased, while the domestic inventory decreased [33] - **Logic**: The market sentiment improved, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - **Near - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 6, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [34] - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel production decreased, but the overall production remained at a high level [35] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, the demand for stainless steel was weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short - term but faced challenges in the medium - term [35] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [35] - **Logic**: The macro - environment was weak, but the cost was supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [36] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [37] - **Short - term View**: Range - bound oscillation [37] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable [38] - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price decreased, and the chromium iron market was weak [38] - **Supply**: In September and October, the domestic stainless steel production increased. The supply pressure remained [39] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity declined [39] - **Logic**: The macro - driving force weakened, and the fundamentals were under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [40] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [41] - **Short - term View**: Weakly oscillating [41] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [41] - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, and last week's production also showed a slight increase [42] - **Demand**: The demand was optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials were expected to increase [42] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased last week [43] - **Logic**: The price was supported by strong fundamentals in the short - term. However, the trading logic has switched, and the price is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [45] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [46] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation adjustment [46] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, the basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [46] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [46] - **Supply**: From January to September, the iron element production increased. In October and November, the molten iron production decreased, and the five major steel products' production also declined [46] - **Demand**: Domestic demand was weak, exports were high, and the apparent demand decreased [47] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, the rebar inventory decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [47] - **View**: The steel market was slightly stronger, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil [48][49] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [50] - **Futures**: The iron ore futures prices increased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [50] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore products was provided [50] - **Demand**: As of November 6, the daily molten iron production decreased, and the demand for iron ore weakened [50] - **Supply**: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, but the port arrivals increased significantly [51] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, the daily port clearing volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [51] - **View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [51] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 6, the coking coal futures rebounded, the Shanxi coal - coke price was strong, and the Mongolian coal price was high [52] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased slightly, and the production and inventory showed different trends [52][53] - **Demand**: The production of coke by independent coking plants and steel mills decreased, and the demand for coking coal weakened [54] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly [55] - **View**: The coking coal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [56] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 6, the coke futures rebounded. The third - round price increase of coke was implemented, and there is still an expectation of a further increase [57][61] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was negative [58] - **Supply**: The daily production of coke decreased, and the cost was supported by the rising coking coal price [59][61] - **Demand**: The iron water production decreased, and the steel price was weak, which suppressed the coke price increase [60][61] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased slightly, and the supply - demand was tight [61] - **View**: The coke price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On November 6, the domestic soybean meal price was stable or decreased, and the rapeseed meal price increased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [63] - **Fundamentals**: China adjusted the tariff on US imports, and there were various news about the soybean production and trade in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [63][64] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price fell sharply. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, but the cost support was strong, and the soybean meal price was expected to be supported [64][65] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated, and the national average price increased slightly [66] - **Market Data**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October, and the profit of live pig farming decreased [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to continue holding the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy and be cautiously bullish on the unilateral position [67] Corn - **Spot Price**: On November 6, the corn price in Northeast China and North China was relatively stable, and the port price was slightly weak [68] - **Fundamentals**: The corn inventory in northern ports and Guangdong ports showed different trends, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises also changed [68][69] - **Market Outlook**: The corn

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.1 billion, or $6.39 per diluted share, with EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA both around $2.1 billion [19][21] - For the third quarter of 2025, reported net earnings were $353 million, or $2.19 per diluted share, with EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA both approximately $670 million [19][21] - The trailing 12-month net cash from operations was $2.6 billion, and free cash flow was $1.7 billion, with a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate of 65% [19][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ammonia utilization rate for the first nine months of 2025 was 97%, with expectations to produce approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia for the full year [12] - Significant progress was made in strategic initiatives, including the full utilization of expanded diesel exhaust fluid rail load-out capabilities, leading to record DEF shipments [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global nitrogen supply-demand balance remained tight in Q3 2025, with robust demand from North America, India, and Brazil, while product availability was constrained due to low global inventories and outages [15][16] - The company anticipates that the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain constructive, with continued strong demand and constrained supply availability [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has embarked on a strategic plan to decarbonize its production network and become a leader in clean ammonia, achieving a 25% reduction in GHG emissions intensity from its original baseline [5][6] - The development of the world's largest ultra-low emissions ammonia plant at the Bluepoint complex in Louisiana is underway, with equity partners JERA and Mitsui [7][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's robust growth trajectory through the end of the decade, emphasizing the inelastic demand for nitrogen even during periods of weak grower profitability [9][10] - The management team highlighted the misconception in the market regarding the company's valuation, noting that CF Industries trades at a low cash flow multiple compared to its peers [10][11] Other Important Information - The company returned $445 million to shareholders in Q3 2025 and approximately $1.3 billion for the first nine months, with a share repurchase program that has repurchased 37.6 million shares [21][22] - An incident at the Yazoo City complex was reported, but all employees and contractors were safe, and the ammonia plant was not directly affected [3][56] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market conditions and mid-cycle expectations - Management acknowledged that current market conditions are above mid-cycle and expect to deliver full-year results well above mid-cycle due to strong demand and pricing dynamics [34][36] Question: Pricing premiums for blue ammonia - The company is currently achieving a premium of $20-$25 per ton for blue ammonia sold in Europe, which was not initially anticipated in the project's economics [39][40] Question: Potential risks in the nitrogen outlook - Management noted that while supply is constrained, demand continues to grow, and they do not foresee significant negative factors impacting the market [45][46] Question: Addressing the valuation disconnect - Management indicated that continued operational performance and share repurchases are key strategies to address the valuation gap perceived by investors [48][50] Question: Supply disruptions and demand strength - Management attributed the price strength to both supply disruptions and healthy demand, with expectations for continued strong demand in 2026 [61][66] Question: Lessons learned from past capacity expansions - The company has applied lessons learned from previous expansions to the Bluepoint project, including detailed engineering studies and modular construction approaches [67][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by the long - term shutdown of the US government, and the short - term concern about liquidity has increased. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand is affected by high prices. The price is expected to be volatile [7]. - The alumina market is in a state of significant oversupply. There are expectations of production cuts, but the actual reduction has not yet occurred. The price is under pressure, and it is expected to be in a narrow - range bottom - grinding state [16]. - The aluminum market has a tight supply - demand pattern. The overseas supply is expected to decrease, and the domestic consumption is resilient. The price is expected to be strong after corrections [23]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by cost support and tight supply - demand balance. The price is likely to rise and is expected to be strong [30]. - The zinc market has a tight ore end, and there are expectations of smelter production cuts. The supply surplus situation may be alleviated, but the upward space is limited [35]. - The lead market has a situation where supply may increase and demand is entering the off - season. The price may decline [42]. - The nickel market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [49]. - The stainless steel market has weak terminal demand and sufficient supply. The price is expected to be weak [55]. - The tin market has a tight ore supply and slow demand recovery. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [64]. - The industrial silicon market has a weakening demand in November. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be in the range of (8500, 9500). Buying at low prices is recommended [68]. - The polysilicon market has a situation where supply and demand both decrease in November, and the supply reduction is greater. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and buying after a correction is recommended [78]. - The lithium carbonate market has a tightening supply - demand situation in November, and the price is at a high level. There are differences after December, and the upward space may be limited [85]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86320 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 299 lots to 557,300 lots [1]. - Spot: The Shanghai spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Guangdong reported a discount of 15 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The North China market reported a discount of 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, causing a 700 - billion - dollar liquidity shortage in the market [2]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [2]. - Anglo Asian Mining signed a contract to sell copper concentrates from its new Demirli copper mine [2]. - Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast for the second time in three months [3]. - As of November 6, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 3,200 tons to 203,300 tons [4]. Logic Analysis - Macro: The long - term shutdown of the US government increases short - term liquidity concerns [7]. - Supply: Multiple mining companies lowered production plans in Q3, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The non - US supply shortage is alleviated [7]. - Demand: High copper prices reduce the operating rates of copper rod and cable enterprises, and the procurement sentiment improves after price drops [7]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage and leave the market temporarily after the export window opens [13]. - Options: Wait and see [8]. 3.2 Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract rose 24 yuan to 2787 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat at 2840 yuan, and the national weighted index dropped 2.6 yuan. The prices in different regions had varying changes [10]. Relevant Information - On November 6, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Australia at a FOB price of 320 US dollars/ton [11]. - As of November 6, the national alumina inventory was 4.218 million tons, up 88,000 tons from last week [11]. - Guinea's NMC started barge shipments of bauxite, and ELITE MINING resumed shipments after the rainy season [12]. - A project in Guangxi started the inquiry and selection for the red mud pipeline survey [15]. - Guangxi Long'an Hetai New Materials' 1 - million - ton alumina project is expected to be completed and trial - produced by the end of the year [15]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand of alumina is in significant surplus. There are expectations of production cuts, but the actual reduction has not occurred. The import window is open, and new projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [16]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Narrow - range bottom - grinding [17]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [18]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [18]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 280 yuan to 21,630 yuan/ton [20]. - Spot: The prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [20]. Relevant Information - The US Treasury's general account balance exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, sucking more than 700 billion US dollars from the market [20]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [20]. - As of November 6, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 7,000 tons [21]. - Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter reduced production due to equipment failure [22]. Trading Logic - Macro: US economic data is better than expected, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has improved [23]. - Fundamental: The supply - demand of aluminum is tight. Overseas supply is expected to decrease, and domestic consumption is resilient [23]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Maintain a strong - trending shock [28]. - Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum [28]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [28]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 245 to 21,000 yuan/ton [26]. - Spot: The prices in different regions were flat [26]. Relevant Information - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, and the US will cancel the "fentanyl tariff" [26]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [26]. - The US government shutdown has a liquidity impact on the market [27]. - The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in October was 20,498 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton increased [29]. Trading Logic - Macro: US economic data alleviates market concerns [30]. - Fundamental: The cost of raw materials rises, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is likely to rise [30]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum alloy price is mainly strong following the aluminum price [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [31]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [31]. 3.5 Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.29% to 22,675 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 2,453 lots to 225,600 lots [33]. - Spot: The Shanghai zinc inventory decreased, and the spot premium continued to hold up, but downstream procurement was cautious [33]. Relevant Information - As of November 6, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased [34]. Logic Analysis - The ore end is tight, and there are expectations of smelter production cuts. The supply surplus may be alleviated, but the upward space is limited [35]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see temporarily [38]. - Arbitrage: Hold the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage [38]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [38]. 3.6 Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,430 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 2,494 lots to 122,400 lots [40]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased, and the downstream buying willingness improved slightly [40]. Relevant Information - As of November 6, the SMM five - region lead ingot inventory increased [41]. Logic Analysis - Supply may increase, and demand is entering the off - season. The price may decline [42]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Hold profitable short positions. Be vigilant about the impact of funds on the price [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [43]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [43]. 3.7 Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 80 to 119,750 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 7,869 lots [45]. - Spot: The premiums of different types of nickel had different changes [47]. Important Information - MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business is under EU investigation [48]. - The global nickel price has dropped significantly in the past two years due to oversupply [48]. Logic Analysis - The LME nickel inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [49]. Trading Strategy - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [50]. 3.8 Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 rose 35 to 12,590 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 10,369 lots [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [52]. Important Information - The US steel market demand is strong, and the EU recycling industry opposes possible steel tariffs [53]. - India temporarily relaxes import restrictions on non - compliant stainless steel products [55]. Logic Analysis - Terminal demand is weak, and supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak [55]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Weak - trending shock [53]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [53]. 3.9 Tin Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,420 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan/ton or 0.49%, and the position decreased by 1,849 lots to 66,355 lots [59]. - Spot: The average price of Shanghai metal network tin ingots increased, but the overall consumption was weak [59]. Relevant Information - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations [60]. - The US government has been shut down for 36 days [61]. - Yunnan has achieved over - target exploration of strategic minerals [61]. - Xingye Yinxi's production of tin in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased [61]. Logic Analysis - US employment data alleviates market pessimism. The ore supply is tight, and demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [64]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is in a high - level shock [65]. - Options: Wait and see temporarily [66]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Important Information - In Yunnan, the number of operating industrial silicon furnaces decreased in October, and it is expected to be less than 20 in November [68]. Logic Analysis - In November, the demand for industrial silicon weakens. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be in the range of (8500, 9500). Buying at low prices is recommended [68]. Strategy Suggestion - Single - side: Buy at low prices [69]. - Arbitrage: None [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon Important Information - Hubei launches a bidding for the sustainable development price settlement mechanism of new energy projects in 2025 [73]. Logic Analysis - In November, supply and demand both decrease, and the supply reduction is greater. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and buying after a correction is recommended [78]. Strategy Suggestion - Single - side: Buy after a correction [79]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage of far - month contracts [80]. - Options: None [81]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1540 to 80,500 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 25,948 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 410 to 26,420 tons [83]. - Spot: The SMM prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [83]. Important Information - In October, the new - energy vehicle retail and wholesale in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [84]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase significantly in 2026, while the supply growth is limited [84]. - Samsung SDI will supply Tesla with energy - storage batteries [84]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s lithium salt project is in trial operation [84]. - Chile's lithium carbonate exports in October increased [84]. Logic Analysis - In November, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate tightens, and the price is at a high level. There are differences after December, and the upward space may be limited [85]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Pay attention to whether the support of the lower moving average is effective [86]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see temporarily [88]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle option combination [88].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The long - term shutdown of the US government has increased short - term concerns about market liquidity, which mainly has a short - term impact. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the supply situation in non - US regions has been alleviated to some extent. The demand for refined copper has been affected by high prices, but the downstream procurement demand has increased after the price decline [2][5] - The supply and demand of alumina are still in a significant surplus. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts have not occurred, and the import window is open. New projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [13] - The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity, but the supply - demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum is still tight. Overseas production cuts have intensified supply concerns, and domestic consumption shows resilience, so the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - The US government shutdown has a short - term impact on the market. The supply of casting aluminum alloy is tight, raw material costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise and hard to fall [29] - The domestic zinc smelter's winter storage scale has expanded, and the profit margin of smelters has been narrowed. The consumption peak season is over, but the opening of the export window will relieve the oversupply situation [36] - Some domestic lead - storage enterprises have reduced production, while the supply side is expected to increase. Considering the supply increase and the arrival of the consumption off - season, the lead price may decline [41] - The LME nickel inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the supply - demand is still loose. The nickel price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [46] - The terminal demand for stainless steel is not optimistic, and the supply is sufficient. The cost support is not strong, so the price trend is weak [49] - The Fed has differences on interest rate cuts, and the dollar index has reached a new high. The tin ore supply is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. The tin price is in a weak shock [57] - In November, the demand for industrial silicon has weakened, and the supply has been reduced. The price has limited downward and upward space, and it is more cost - effective to buy at low prices [61] - In November, the supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot price has no upward momentum in the short term, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - In November, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have tightened, and the price may rebound after a short - term decline. It is advisable to arrange short positions after the rebound [74] Group 3: Summary by Industry Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The spot price returned to the 85,000 yuan/ton level, and the downstream replenishment increased [1] - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter, and some mining companies have adjusted their production plans [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors and supply - demand situations affect the copper market. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand has been affected by high prices [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 decreased by 3 yuan to 2,772 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [7] - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum plants purchased alumina, and some alumina enterprises had production adjustments due to environmental factors. New projects are in progress [8][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus and factors such as production cuts and new projects affect the price [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 decreased by 85 yuan to 21,395 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity, the LME planned to formulate rules, and some aluminum plants had production adjustments [17][18] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown affected the price, but the supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [20][21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2512 decreased by 120 to 20,795 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [24] - **Related Information**: The US - China tariff adjustment and economic data were released, and the US government shutdown affected market liquidity [24][27] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown has a short - term impact. The supply is tight, costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise [29] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 decreased by 0.15% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The spot market had active trading among traders [32] - **Related Information**: Some mining companies' zinc production data changed [33][34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: The smelter's winter storage and profit situation, consumption season, and export window affect the market [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions; Arbitrage: Arrange to buy SHFE zinc and sell LME zinc; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 increased by 0.17% to 17,475 yuan/ton. The spot market had different trading attitudes among holders and downstream enterprises [39] - **Related Information**: A lead - zinc mine obtained a production license [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The production situation of lead - storage enterprises and the supply - side situation affect the price [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [42][43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 290 to 120,030 yuan/ton. The spot premiums changed [45] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the nickel price and production situation in Indonesia changed [46] - **Logic Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory and supply - demand situation affect the price, which is in a wide - range shock [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 35 to 12,535 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [49] - **Important Information**: India relaxed the import restrictions on stainless steel [49] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand and supply situation, as well as cost factors, affect the price trend [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 282,090 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The spot price decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment improved [53] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown, and some semiconductor - related events occurred [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude, tin ore supply, and demand situation affect the price, which is in a weak shock [57] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The furnace - starting situation in Yunnan changed, and the electricity price increased, affecting the production of industrial silicon [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, with limited downward and upward space [61] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [62][63][64] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Hubei launched a new energy project price - settlement mechanism bidding [66] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy after the price correction; Arbitrage: Reverse spread on far - month contracts; Options: None [71] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 decreased by 360 to 79,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices decreased [72] - **Important Information**: Some lithium - related companies' production and project progress were reported [73] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, which may rebound after a short - term decline [74] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Arrange short positions after the rebound; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75]

Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral [5] - PX: Neutral [6] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Neutral for overall view, with cautious bias in some aspects [7] Core Views - PTA has fair supply - demand, with a slight reduction in supply - side load. It faces seasonal inventory accumulation pressure from November to December, is highly affected by cost, and has limited improvement in supply - demand [5][44]. - PX has a high domestic supply, fair demand, and a favorable expected pattern. Its floating price remains strong, PXN valuation is reasonable, and it fluctuates with cost in the short - term [6]. - Ethylene glycol has some increased maintenance, fair demand, but lacks driving force in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. High supply causes pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7][112]. Summary by Related Catalogs Demand and Polyester Situation - Domestic demand is fair, with terminal fabric sales improving, finished - product inventory decreasing, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing rising to 86%, 76%, and 82% respectively. Polyester load reached 91.7% by October 31st, with inventory pressure easing and expected high - level operation in November [9][14]. - Polyester profit is slightly compressed due to the rebound of raw materials. Long - filament profitability is reduced, while bottle - grade and staple - fiber cash flows are fair [15]. PTA Situation - PTA maintenance plans in November are not few. YS Dahua and Shandong Weilian slightly reduced their loads, and Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, Dushan 1, and Honggang have maintenance plans. Dushan Energy's new device has started production [36][44]. - As of October 31st, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 220.7 tons, up 0.6 tons. In - port and in - warehouse goods slightly decreased, and credit warehouse receipts increased [40]. - PTA supply - side maintenance volume is high, demand is fair, and the inventory accumulation pressure from November to December is slightly reduced. Processing fees are still low, and it is mainly affected by cost in the short - term [44]. PX Situation - The US gasoline inventory continues to decline, and the octane number is stable and strong. The economics of gasoline blending has improved, while the Asian disproportionation profit has been compressed [56][59]. - The PX domestic load is at a high level of 87%. Wushi Petrochemical has restarted after maintenance, and Fujia plans to restart a production line. Asian load is 78%, with some devices having maintenance or restart plans [6][65]. - The PX balance sheet is expected to be tight, the floating price has improved, and PXN is around $240, with a reasonable valuation. It is affected by cost in the short - term [70]. Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of October 31st, the overall load of ethylene glycol is at a high level of 76%, and the coal - based load is 83%. Some devices have restarted, some are under maintenance, and there are maintenance and load - reduction plans in November and December [78][82]. - Overseas, Maoming Petrochemical is shut down, Taiwan Nanya is under maintenance, and some US and Canadian devices have restarted or are under maintenance. Imports may increase in November [97]. - As of November 3rd, the port inventory of MEG in East China is about 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons. The expected arrival volume is high, and short - term port inventory is expected to accumulate [107]. - From November to December, ethylene glycol maintains seasonal inventory accumulation, with high supply pressure and general driving force, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [112].