投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-18 生猪备货开始，需求驱动反弹 油脂：昨日继续偏弱运行 蛋白粕：国储拍卖持续，双粕或震荡偏弱 玉米/淀粉：多空交织，盘面僵持 生猪：备货逐渐开始，需求驱动反弹 天然橡胶：关注短期压力位力度 合成橡胶：多头情绪延续偏强 棉花：政策端故事提振棉价 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价承压 纸浆：期货来回波动，现货持续走低 双胶纸：刚需购销为主，纸价平稳运行 原木：供应压力边际缓解，原木平稳运行为主 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 生猪观点：备货逐渐开始，需求驱动反弹 主要逻辑：冬至备货逐渐开始，需求阶段性改善，驱动猪价低位反弹，但 考虑到生猪供应压力依旧存在，价格波动区间预计有限。（1）供应：短 期，12月二育大猪开始出栏，据涌益监测，12月上旬二育存栏总量环比- 16.99%，大猪供应市场。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产能尚在高位 波动，并且1月~10月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照养殖周期推算，预 计2026年4月之前商品猪出栏量持续过剩。长期，2025年三季度能繁母猪 产能开始出现去化 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 320500 | 324100 | -3600 | -1.11% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | -50 | -50 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 321000 | 324600 | -3600 | -1.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 50.00 | 17.00 | 33.00 | 194.12% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -13349.68 | -13968.02 | 618.34 | 4.43% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.92 | 7.92 | ...

近期，国内己内酰胺市场整体呈现震荡偏强的格局。场内整体开工水平处于低位，导致现货供应趋紧。 在此情况下，持货商挺价意愿强烈，不断推涨市场报盘，进而推动己内酰胺价格上涨。但下游及终端企 业面对高价原料，接货十分谨慎，仅按自身需求进行刚需采购，这在一定程度上制约了己内酰胺价格的 上涨幅度。尽管市场现货价格仍呈涨势，但相较于前期，涨势已有所放缓。截至12月16日，华东市场己 内酰胺现货价格涨至9400-9500元/吨（承兑送到）。 供应端：减产检修频繁，开工水平低位 12月份，减产措施持续推进，多套己内酰胺装置降负运行或停车检修。具体来看，巴陵恒逸己内酰胺装 置整体负荷降至6-7成；湖南石化60万吨/年装置降负至7成；南京福邦特此前运行的20万吨CPL装置于11 月底停车检修，重启时间尚未确定，另一条线长期处于停车检修状态；华鲁恒升装置负荷整体下调 20%；福建天辰35万吨/年装置自11月25日起开工降至8成；沧州旭阳己内酰胺一期15万吨/年装置自11月 15日起停车检修；山西潞宝10万吨/年装置于11月17日停车检修；河南神马38万吨/年装置目前整体负荷 为8成；湖北三宁装置自11月17日负荷降至略低于8成；山西 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]

芳烃年报（PX、纯苯、苯乙烯）2025 年 12 月 芳烃年报 2025-12 芳烃：供需博弈，利润分化 （摘要） 关注：宏观与关税消息、地缘问题、三苯出口趋势、检修计划 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 姜周曦琳 Email: jiangzhouxilin@ftol.com.cn 从业资格证号: F03114700 投资咨询证号： Z0022394 摘要： PX：2025 年 PX 市场行情整体呈现"前低后稳、供需趋紧"的特征。上 半年价格受美国加征关税、伊以地缘局势等多重因素影响，下半年主要回 归偏强基本面，PX 产能增速放缓，下游聚酯需求持续释放，社会库存连续 下降，市场由年初的高库存逐步转向紧平衡状态，支撑价格低位反弹。 纯苯：纯苯期货于 2025 年 7 月上市，上市初期受 2026 年春季检修季 预期推动，价格有所上涨，随后因现货供需宽松、港口高库存及进口压力 加大而连续下跌至年末。全年海内外价格中枢显著下移，亚洲市场受美国 关税政策影响，韩国货源转向中国，加剧国内供应压力。尽管下游苯乙烯 需求仍有增长，但纯苯产能扩张较快，行业利润大幅收窄，四季度毛利率 触及历史低 ...

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (2011 1292号 2025年12月 16日 | | | | 纪元非 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月12日 | 12月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 765 | ate | -150 | -16.39% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | aeso | aeso | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 415 | 565 | -150 | -26.55% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1115 | 1265 | -150 | -11.86% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 12月12日 | 12月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-16 政策扰动不断，盘⾯低位反弹 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但国 资委强调中央企业⾃觉抵制"内卷式"竞争，盘⾯低开⾼⾛。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅仍有⽀ 撑，下游补库⽀撑煤焦估值有望修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅ 空间。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑虽较弱，但焦钢企业将逐渐开启原料 冬储补库，基本面矛盾不大，当前盘面估值过低，继续大幅下行驱动 不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储逐步开启，焦煤 现货成交有望改善，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修复，届时盘面估值或 将向上修复。 3. 合金方面：成本暂居高位对价格形成支撑，但市场供需宽松状态 难改、成本向下传导不畅、盘面上涨驱动不足，预计锰硅期价仍将跟 随板块的表现、以低位震荡运行为主。成本仍处高位支撑硅铁价格底 部，但市场供需双弱、去库难度仍存，需谨慎看待盘面的上方空间， 预计硅铁期价跟随板块低位震荡运行。 4. 玻璃纯碱：供应仍有扰动 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-15 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询 号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供需双增，期价震荡运行 u 风险提示：生猪疫情、规模场散户出栏情况、需求表现、二次育肥和冻品节奏、政策 u 期现端：截至12月12日，全国现货价格11.34元/公斤，较上周涨0.23元/公斤；河南猪价11.4元/公斤，较上周涨0.01元/公斤；生猪2503收至11325元/吨，较上周涨240元/吨；03合 约基差75元/吨，较上周跌230元/吨。周度生猪价格先抑后扬，重心上移，随着二育和压栏猪抛压释放，低位养殖户惜售情绪增强，以及腌腊展开和降温终端消费季节性增量，价格 小幅偏强；期货主力移仓至03，跟随现货低位反弹，03贴水收窄，基差走弱，盘面近强远弱；周末现货稳中偏强。 u 供应端：9月官方能繁母猪存栏量小降，10月在政策调控和养殖利润亏损背景下，产能去化有所加速，但仍在正常保有量3900万之上，叠加生产性能提升， ...

镍作为空配品种延续下行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 期权：卖出阻力位虚值看涨期权。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美联储鹰派降息如期落地，中央经济工作会议也已结束，更积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策等表述，并未给市场带来强刺激，市场反应平平。 产业方面：11月国内产量锐减1万吨，供需基本匹配，LME库存也因此未出现增长。12月产量略有回升， 需求端进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也环比走弱。库存预计小幅增长。供 需双弱格局缺乏向上驱动。商务部、海关总署公告对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，对不锈钢和镍利 空。 期货层面：沪镍11.8万附近阻力较强，资金减仓后上周四返回，价格再度下行，若市场整体风险偏好下降， 可能增仓下破前低。 不锈钢交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 单边：测试前低。 交易逻辑及策略 | 单边：低位震荡。 | | --- | 套利：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUT ...

邓正红软实力表示，市场对委内瑞拉石油供应中断存在担忧，但美国股市走软加剧了市场对供应过剩的看空情绪，石油软实力在在震荡运行中略显收缩，12 月12日（周五）国际油价小幅走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌0.16元至57.44美元，跌幅0.28%，本周该期 货累计下跌4.39%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶跌0.16美元至61.12美元，跌幅0.26%，本周该期货累计下跌4.12%。 供需平衡的规则重构。市场对2026年供应过剩的共识是规则重构的体现。邓正红认为"规则系统驱动物质演化"，当前市场通过期货持仓（看空押注升至七周 高位）和价格预期（推至10月以来区间下沿）完成了对供需规则的重新定价。这种规则重构比实际供需变化更能影响短期价格走势。 市场趋势预测与投资建议。短期震荡：地缘政治风险（规则场）与供需基本面（物质场）的博弈将导致油价持续震荡。任何反弹预计都将短暂。中长期下行 压力：全球石油市场进入累库周期，国际油价运行中枢将明显下移，预计布伦特原油全年均价在每桶65~75美元区间。投资策略：邓正红软实力哲学建议关 注"规则-物质"的协同演化。投资者应同时跟 ...