1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate [8] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [11] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the long - term, and run in the 5500 - 5750 range in the short - term [14] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate [15] - **Double - Glue Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [16] - **Logs**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the relatively bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak, and it may continue to adjust. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the market will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter. There is a short - term tight supply, and a short - term long - term long pattern is expected [7]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of "anti - involution" boosts the market. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the cycle is still under supply pressure. In the long - term, if the capacity - reduction policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually weakened. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the decline, it stabilizes, and there will still be fluctuations in the short - term. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It returns to the fluctuating trend. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates within the range. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. It is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation between 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to the limited expected decline in US soybean yield per unit, combined with the impact of oil - meal arbitrage, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday. The MPOB report is bearish, and domestic oils and fats fluctuated and fell yesterday. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The MPOB report on palm oil is bearish, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak and may continue to adjust [6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain. There are factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean exports. Domestically, the state reserve plans to sell 22,500 tons of imported soybeans, and the soybean import volume is large. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [6]. - **Outlook**: Both domestic and international markets will continue to fluctuate within the range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand has a phased increase. With the approaching of the new grain listing, the selling pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies when the new grain is concentratedly listed. Consider reverse arbitrage [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: The Ministry of Agriculture plans to hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation enterprises on September 16. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. In the long - term, the "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Logic**: The rubber market stabilizes after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there are many speculative themes. The supply increase may be postponed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovers after the price decline [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR market stabilizes after a large decline and returns to the fluctuating trend. It follows the natural rubber market, and the cost of raw material butadiene provides support. The supply and demand fundamentals support the market to fluctuate in a narrow range [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price of butadiene may rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The domestic cotton market has low inventory and marginal improvement in demand. The new cotton commercial inventory is tight, and the demand is improving but the upward driving force is insufficient. Wait for the new cotton purchase price to give direction [12]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate in the short - term. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: In the new season, although the drought in Brazil reduces the sugarcane yield, the sugar production is expected to increase due to the high sugar - making ratio. The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase. The domestic supply marginally increases, and the sugar price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price may decline. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. The supply and demand change little, and it may be due to emotional speculation. The needle - broadleaf pattern is differentiated, and the price may continue to decline [15]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Logic**: The fundamentals are bearish, with over - supply in the industry, declining demand, and high inventory. The listing price is neutral to low, and consider range operation between 4000 - 4500. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage in the early stage of listing [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Logic**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. - **Outlook**: The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19].

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures have stabilized after dropping to the lower end of the fluctuation range at 4650 yuan/ton, with strong support expected for a rebound due to low valuation and tight supply-demand balance [1] Group 1: Raw Material Support - Despite pessimistic market expectations for the future supply-demand pattern of crude oil, international oil prices remain supported around 65 USD/barrel [2] - OPEC+ decided to slightly increase production while emphasizing a cautious and flexible approach to manage voluntary production cuts, which has calmed the market [2] - There has been no significant inventory accumulation in the crude oil market since July, indicating that supply surplus has not been confirmed [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - PTA operating rates are maintained at low levels, with current processing fees below 200 yuan/ton, leading to potential losses for some advanced PTA facilities [3] - The demand for textiles and apparel is expected to rise in September and October, but overall consumer demand remains weak, limiting brand replenishment intentions [3] - Polyester average operating rates as of September 4 are at 91%, with filament factories at 86.7%, short fiber factories at 93.9%, and bottle chip factories at 72.9% [3] - The profit margins in the polyester segment have improved, and inventory pressure is expected to be manageable during the peak season, allowing for sustained high operating rates [3] - Overall, the combination of low PTA valuation, short-term crude oil price support, and a tight supply-demand balance suggests strong support around 4700 yuan/ton, with PTA likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - environment drives the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, with a weak spot market. Supply remains stable, consumption shows improvement, and the inventory build - up rate slows, with expected destocking. Overseas consumption is strong, and there is an increased expectation of interest rate cuts [6]. - Regarding alumina, the adjustment of Xinjiang delivery premium may create arbitrage opportunities. The cost side has support, and although the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus, considering multiple factors, the price should be treated neutrally [6][7]. - For aluminum alloy, scrap aluminum supply is tight, but production profit has recovered, indicating consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On September 4, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,610 yuan/ton, a change of - 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,470 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 160 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,560 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 70 yuan/ton, a change of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,710 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 160 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,765 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,216 lots, and the open interest was 206,617 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a change of 0.3 tons; the warrant inventory was 59,583 tons, a change of 26 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, with no change [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On September 4, 2025, the price of alumina in Shanxi was 3,140 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,120 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,160 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,270 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,280 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,998 yuan/ton, closed at 2,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 44 yuan/ton or - 1.46%. The highest price was 2,998 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,954 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 279,608 lots, and the open interest was 251,793 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On September 4, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of ADC12 Baotai was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 57,900 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,000 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,203 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 197 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro - environment drives the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, while the spot market is weak. Supply is stable, consumption is improving, and the inventory build - up rate slows, with expected destocking. Overseas consumption is strong, and there is an increased expectation of interest rate cuts [6]. - **Alumina**: A northwest aluminum plant purchased 10,000 tons of alumina at 3,230 yuan/ton, equivalent to a Shanxi ex - factory price of 3,060 yuan/ton. The adjustment of Xinjiang delivery premium by the SHFE may create arbitrage opportunities. The cost side has support, and although the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus, considering multiple factors, the price should be treated neutrally [6][7]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, but production profit has recovered, indicating consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory [7]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side Strategy**: Bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Long - short arbitrage in SHFE aluminum, long AD11 and short AL11, and reverse arbitrage between January and March contracts of alumina [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is facing potential supply - demand imbalances, with a bearish outlook if OPEC+ further releases production capacity [1]. - Precious metals are strongly influenced by interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, and the focus is on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - Different metals and commodities have varying trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and inventory adjustments, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3]. - The stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - The yield curve of treasury bonds is likely to steepen, and attention should be paid to the supply of government bonds and the matching of funds [48]. Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent 11 contract down 0.76%. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. If OPEC+ further releases the remaining 1.657 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, the supply - demand will be bearish. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third batch of quotas was released later than expected. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and its warehouse receipts decreased slightly. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and rebounding domestic demand, the price of civil gas increased. The high - basis difference pattern is maintained, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22]. - **Coal (Coke and Coking Coal)**: The prices of coke and coking coal rebounded during the day. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and are under short - term pressure [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. Supported by stable interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metals are strongly running. Focus on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is highly concerned about the non - farm data. Short - term long positions can still be held, paying attention to the performance at 79500 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally increased. It is expected to test the resistance in the 21000 - yuan area in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased, and it may test the key level of 22000 yuan. The idea of shorting the profit of the futures market remains unchanged [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading picked up. The political unrest in Indonesia has gradually subsided. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. Shanghai tin adjusted to 271000 yuan. Short - term long positions can be flexibly held based on 270000 - 271000 yuan [10]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The import volume remained high, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply in the inland area increased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased slightly. Although the current situation is weak, the market is expected to be strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - trading chemical market stabilized, and pure benzene rebounded to 6000 yuan/ton. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The market may improve in the third quarter, but the positive factors are limited [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The downstream products of propylene face high cost pressure, and the demand for propylene is weak. The supply of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the actual demand recovery is slow [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increasing supply and weak demand. It may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is weak. The overall inventory is increasing, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation pattern [28]. - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA are weakly oscillating. The terminal weaving orders are increasing, but the production growth of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the PX - polyester balance [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is uncertain, and the soybean meal may continue to oscillate in the short term. The global soybean oil market is strong, which may drive up the soybean crushing volume. In the long - term, the soybean meal is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are oscillating. The supply of Chinese soybeans in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Overseas palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is in the peak season. Consider buying at low prices [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvesting pressure, and its export is declining. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the futures may stabilize in the short term [37]. - **Corn**: The domestic new - season corn is likely to have a good harvest, but the old - crop carry - over inventory is low. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before and after the new - grain purchase, and then may run weakly at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton is oscillating narrowly. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upward space in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are falling. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The early - maturing apple prices are high, and the short - term price may continue to rise. However, the supply - side positive factors are limited in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market was weak yesterday, and the stock index futures all fell. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The net supply of government bonds in September is expected to be high. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Polyester Industry**: Short - term PX, PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip prices follow oil prices, with limited upward drivers. Ethylene glycol has a "strong present, weak future" pattern. Strategies vary by product, such as PX11 and TA being under observation, and attention to support levels [2]. - **Fertilizer Industry**: Urea futures face pressure due to weak demand and high supply. It is advisable to monitor the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [5]. - **Methanol Industry**: Methanol supply is abundant in September, while traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices and inventory digestion [12]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: OPEC + supply news increases concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The oil price is likely to be weak, and a bearish strategy is recommended [15]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In September, the polyolefin market shows a pattern of "decreased supply and increased demand", with controllable inventory pressure. It is suggested to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [22]. - **Chlor - alkali Industry**: Caustic soda prices may remain firm in the short - term, and PVC is expected to continue weak and volatile [30]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: Short - term pure benzene and styrene prices are under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not drop sharply. For EB10, short - term support around 6900 can be monitored [34]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 3, Brent crude oil (November) was at $67.60/barrel, down 2.2%. Most polyester product prices were stable or slightly decreased, and cash flows showed different changes [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply is expected to increase, while demand has limited upward potential. PTA supply - demand prospects have improved, but the implementation of device maintenance is not as expected. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics [2]. Fertilizer Industry - **Prices and Supply - Demand**: On September 3 - 5, most fertilizer product prices were stable, and urea production and inventory data showed small fluctuations. Urea demand is weak, and supply is relatively sufficient [5]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, methanol supply is high, and traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at $67.39/barrel, down 0.31%. Most oil - related prices and spreads changed slightly, and the crack spread of refined oil increased slightly [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC + supply news intensifies concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and the oil price is likely to be weak [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. PE and PP enterprise and social inventories increased [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, PE supply pressure is limited, and PP shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing". Downstream demand has increased slightly [22]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was stable, and the price of PVC was also stable. Chlor - alkali inventories showed different changes [30]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply will gradually recover, and demand may increase. PVC supply is expected to increase, while demand remains weak [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at $734/ton, up 0.8%. Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, and demand support is weakening. Styrene supply is high in the short - term, but there are expectations of improvement in supply - demand later [34].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Supply was slightly increased due to previous resource - end disruptions; demand growth of cathode plants was limited as new energy vehicles were in the off - season; social inventory fluctuated at a high level, with inventory moving from upstream to downstream but low actual consumption and weakened subsequent purchasing power; in September, supply and demand were expected to be in a tight balance, and futures prices were expected to fluctuate weakly, while being cautious about "small essays" from the mining end before the 30th [2] 3. Summary by Content Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 75,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,600 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,300 yuan/ton [1][2] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price was 872 yuan, down 15 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price was 71/114 yuan, down 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price was 1,885 yuan, down 35 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) average price was 6,040 yuan, down 325 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) average price was 7,040 yuan, down 350 yuan [1][2] Futures Contract Prices - Lithium carbonate 2509 closed at 72,080 yuan, down 3.87%; 2510 closed at 71,860 yuan, down 3.1%; 2511 closed at 71,880 yuan, down 3.1%; 2512 closed at 72,000 yuan, down 2.62%; 2601 closed at 71,980 yuan, down 2.62% [1] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 34,210 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan; the average price of polycrystalline/power - type ternary material 811 was 145,900 yuan/ton; the average price of single - crystal/power - type ternary material 523 was 118,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of single - crystal/power - type ternary material 613 was 123,725 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract was 4,020 yuan, down 860 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 60 yuan, down 20 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract was - 140 yuan, down 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory was 141,136 tons, down 407 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters was 43,336 tons, down 3,510 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream was 52,800 tons, up 1,293 tons; the weekly inventory of others was 50,000 tons, up 1,810 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts were 2,111 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,391 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 592 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate was 79,330 yuan/ton [2] Other Information - Jinan launched the third round of automobile consumption subsidies in the second half of 2025 on September 1st, with a total subsidy of 12 million yuan, valid until September 30th [2]

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX supply is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and good short - process benefits. Demand has some support but limited upside. PX11 is under observation, with support around 6600 and attention on oil price trends [2]. - PTA supply - demand is near a tight balance in September. Although the device maintenance execution is not as expected, the low absolute price is supported, but the driving force is limited. TA is under observation, paying attention to the support around 4600 and oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol has a "strong reality, weak expectation" supply - demand pattern. Short - term futures have limited downside, but the fourth - quarter supply - demand is weak. Attention is paid to the support of EG2601 around 4300 [2]. - Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve in September, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows raw material fluctuations, with the disk processing fee oscillating between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip supply and procurement may both decrease in September, with inventory expected to increase. PR follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee has limited upside [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices fell due to weak demand and high - supply pressure. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export demand is also under pressure. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may be under pressure. Attention is paid to the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [8]. Methanol Industry - Methanol supply is expected to increase with the return of inland maintenance devices and high - level imports in September. Traditional downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure due to significant inventory accumulation, and attention is paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [10][11][12]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about increased OPEC+ supply in the fourth quarter. The disk may run weakly, with support levels for WTI at [62, 63], Brent at [65, 66], and SC at [470, 480]. Options can wait for opportunities to expand after increased volatility [19]. Polyolefin Industry - PE supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term, and PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation. Downstream industry开工率 has increased, but new orders have limited support. In September, the market shows a "supply - decrease, demand - increase" pattern, and it is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda market is supported by rigid demand, with low inventory in Shandong. The spot price may remain firm, and the disk callback space is limited. Attention is paid to downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [48]. - PVC supply - demand remains oversupplied. Supply is expected to increase in September, while demand remains weak. It is expected to continue weak and volatile, with cost - end support [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, while demand support is weak. Short - term absolute price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not fall deeply [53]. - Styrene supply is high in the short - term, with weak driving force. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement later. EB10 can be lightly long at low positions, and mainly short on rebounds later [53]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, WTI crude oil (October) was at 63.97 dollars/barrel, down 1.62 dollars or 2.5% from the previous day. Various polyester product prices and spreads changed, such as PTA, MEG, and different polyester fiber prices [2]. - **Inventory and Expected Arrival**: MEG port inventory was 44.9 million tons on September 1, down 10.2% from August 25, and the expected arrival was 4.4 million tons, up 122.7% [2]. - **Industry开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 75.6% on August 29, down 0.7% from August 22; PTA开工率 was 70.4%, down 1.2% [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 3, the 01 - contract futures price was 1714 yuan/ton, down 1.83% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 18.80 million tons on September 5, down 0.93% from September 4. Factory inventory increased slightly, and order days decreased [8]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day. There were also changes in various price spreads and regional price differences [10]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 34.1083%, up 2.31%; port inventory was 142.8 million tons, up 9.88% [11]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.19% on Thursday, down 1.12% from the previous value; downstream MTO device开工率 was 78.56%, up 2.13% [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at 67.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.31% from the previous day; WTI was at 63.75 dollars/barrel, down 0.34% [19]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB was at 200.90 cents/gallon on September 4, down 0.15% from the previous day. Refined oil cracking spreads had different changes [19]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. There were also changes in price spreads and basis [23]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE enterprise inventory on Wednesday was 45.1 million tons, up 5.57%; PP装置开工率 on Thursday was 80.2%, up 2.6% [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. PVC prices and price spreads also had changes [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.4% on August 29, down 0.8% from August 22; PVC total开工率 was 73.3%, down 2.3% [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at 734 dollars/ton, up 0.8% from the previous day. Styrene - related prices and spreads also changed [53]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 1.10 million tons on September 1, up 8.0% from August 25; domestic pure benzene开工率 was 79.2% on August 29, up 0.2% from August 22 [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The copper price broke through and rose this week. With supply disturbances and expected decline in electrolytic copper production in September, there is obvious support at the bottom, and potential squeezing risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply slightly increased, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in September with inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside in the low - inventory pattern [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is expected to rebound and is recommended for observation; in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for short - side allocation. Inside - outside positive spreads can be held, and opportunities for positive spreads between months can be noted [5][6]. - The nickel market has high - level pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and stable premiums. With the situation in Indonesia to be continuously monitored, the short - term fundamental situation is average [7]. - The stainless - steel market has weak fundamentals with partial passive production cuts by steel mills, mainly rigid demand, and stable inventory in Xifu areas. Attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Indonesia [10]. - The lead price oscillated this week. Supply is expected to be tight, demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a low - level oscillation next week [12]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long - term [15]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption rhythm of Hesheng. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom due to over - capacity [18]. - The lithium carbonate price declined this week. The core contradiction is the excess supply in the medium - to - long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances at the resource end. With the arrival of the peak season, the price has strong downward support [20][21]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 25, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 39, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders remained resilient, and the copper rod operating rate showed no obvious distinction between peak and off - peak seasons. The rumor of tax rebate cancellation in some areas led to a tight waste - refined price difference, and the production of anode copper may be affected in September and October. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots all increased by 20, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 12. The LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply slightly increased, and demand was in the seasonal off - peak season in August with a slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The inventory is expected to deplete in September [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 375 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic TC of zinc ore has limited upward movement, and the import TC increased. The smelting increment in August was further realized. Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has certain resilience, and overseas demand has some resistance in production due to processing fees [5]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and the LME inventory increased by 3996 [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure nickel production remained at a high level, demand was weak, and premiums were stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous monitoring [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 430 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100 [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills had partial passive production cuts, demand was mainly rigid, and inventory in Xifu areas remained stable [10]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot premium increased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 3475 [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be tight, demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a low - level oscillation next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the spot import profit increased by 874.40, and the LME inventory increased by 20 [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and overseas production resumption difficulties, and demand has a peak - season expectation but also a decline in photovoltaic growth [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 20, and the 553 East China basis decreased by 20 [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production in Xinjiang is progressing steadily, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption rhythm of Hesheng, and there is over - capacity in the medium - to - long - term [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2111 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The price declined this week due to multiple factors. The core contradiction is the excess supply in the medium - to - long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances at the resource end. With the arrival of the peak season, the price has strong downward support [20][21].

1. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate in August improved to a tight balance, with the supply - demand gap continuously narrowing. It is expected to continue improving throughout the year, but the improvement will be limited. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of upstream supply is likely to remain stable, downstream demand still has some growth potential, and the cost side, especially the ore end, has little room for further decline. After recent sharp price fluctuations, the futures price is expected to stabilize, remaining above previous highs and mainly adjusting through wide - range oscillations [4][59]. 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review and Logic Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Trend Review - The main lithium carbonate contract in August 2025 showed a bullish - then - bearish trend, opening at 69,080 yuan/ton on August 1st and closing at 77,180 yuan/ton on August 29th, with a monthly increase of 11.73%. High supply led to high inventory, and the subsequent production increase of downstream cathode material factories was lower than expected. The cost of the ore end was also supported. The import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased, and the mica mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi were about to expire, which briefly drove the market up. Without obvious signs of demand recovery, the futures price may have some downward space. The basis showed a clear trend. After the shutdown of the Xianxiaowo Mine on August 9th, the basis weakened rapidly, indicating that the futures price rose much faster than the spot price. From the 20th, as the sentiment of funds to boost prices weakened, the spot price led the futures price again. If there is no supply - side disruption and demand remains weak, the spot price is expected to have a slight premium over the futures price, and the basis fluctuation range will narrow [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Production**: - **Ore End**: In August, the production of domestic spodumene and lepidolite still faced cost - profit inversion, but their production trends diverged. Lepidolite production was affected by the mining license issue in Jiangxi, with the total output in August being 13,980 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.74%. Spodumene production was 6,670 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The import of spodumene from Australia increased significantly in August, with an import volume of 576,138 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.73%. The price of spodumene and lepidolite continued to rise steadily. Lithium ore was in a state of slight supply shortage in August, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is expected that the supply - demand gap will continue to narrow in the second half of the year, and there is limited downward space for prices under the support of ore costs [7]. - **Lithium Compound End**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the dependence on Chilean imports declined. In August, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 8,5240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The production was mainly battery - grade. The output from spodumene and lepidolite increased steadily, the output from salt - lake lithium extraction increased slightly due to warmer weather, and the output from waste lithium - battery recycling decreased significantly due to cost - profit inversion. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate shifted from slight oversupply to slight shortage in August. It is expected that demand will recover in the second half of the year, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight - balance state. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide continued to increase, but the downstream demand was weak. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was obvious, and its price is expected to face downward pressure in the short term [13][14]. - **Cost - Profit**: The overall cost level of the ore end rebounded after reaching the bottom. The cost of enterprises producing lithium compounds from externally purchased spodumene was still high, mainly due to the ore cost. By the end of August, the cost of spodumene dropped to around 76,000 yuan/ton, and the processing cost rebounded slightly, with corresponding enterprises making small profits. The processing cost of lepidolite also rebounded, and the cost in late June recovered to around 80,000 yuan/ton, with corresponding enterprises in a continuous loss state. Salt - lake lithium extraction could still make a profit due to its low cost. The cost of waste - battery recycling remained stable, and the loss situation did not improve. Except for the salt - lake end, other production methods still had cost - profit inversion [24]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts in the exchange recovered rapidly after being cancelled at the end of July, and the current inventory is around 30,000 tons. Affected by the sharp price fluctuations of futures and spot in August, the downstream's willingness to take delivery was low, and the downstream inventory decreased. The upstream production enterprises also adjusted their production, and the overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in August. For lithium hydroxide, the inventory of upstream and downstream decreased in August due to the reduction in supply, but the de - stocking rate is expected to remain low, and the price increase space may be limited [36]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Power/Energy - Storage Batteries**: The production of power batteries remained high and the price was stable under the background of high upstream supply and declining costs. The loading demand decreased in August due to weak terminal demand, and the support for upstream demand continued to weaken. The inventory of ternary power batteries increased slightly, and that of lithium - iron - phosphate power batteries remained basically unchanged. The inventory - sales ratio of power batteries showed a divergent trend in August. It is expected that the inventory de - stocking rate may decline to some extent in the second half of the year. The winning bid price and order volume of energy - storage batteries decreased in August, and the inventory - sales ratio was relatively low, with inventory pressure slightly higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected that demand will suppress the futures price in the short term [40]. - **Ternary Precursors/Materials**: In August, the prices and costs of ternary precursors and ternary materials rebounded, and the overall loss situation improved slightly but still remained in a loss state. As production increased slightly, the situation of supply surplus intensified. The 5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series materials still dominated. The supply - demand situation of ternary precursors improved limitedly under the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory de - stocking amplitude was restricted [41]. - **Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate**: Since June 2024, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate has continued to increase, but the operating rate has been low due to weak downstream demand. The production has been at a high level, and the prices of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate have continued to weaken. The loss amplitude improved in August with the rebound of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices. The inventory remained stable, but considering the continuous high - level production, the subsequent production scheduling will still face pressure, and prices may be suppressed [50]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In July 2025, the production of new energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%, higher than the historical average. The sales volume was 1,262,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%, higher than the historical average. The export volume was 22,500 units, a month - on - month increase of 9.76%, higher than the historical average. The dealer inventory coefficient was 1.35, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0699, lower than the historical average, and the terminal inventory decreased, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate. The dealer inventory warning coefficient was 51.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.3, lower than the historical average. It is expected that demand will strengthen in August and September, and the inventory will decrease. Overall, the production of new energy vehicles decreased in July, demand remained stable, and the dealer inventory increased. It is expected that the inventory will increase again in August. The weak consumption growth of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may have limited impact on the upstream power battery and lithium carbonate sectors [54]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Supply Aspect**: The cost - profit inversion situation of the ore end has improved, while the continuous cost - profit inversion of the recycling end limits the production increase. It is expected to support the futures price in the short term [57]. - **Demand Aspect**: In August, the production scheduling of power batteries remained stable, but the growth was limited due to lower - than - expected downstream demand. The demand for new energy vehicles recovered weakly, and the increasing dealer inventory pressure limited the support for the futures price. The growth of energy - storage equipment was significant, but its inventory - sales ratio was in a state of decline, and it is expected to have limited support for downstream demand [58]. - **Summary**: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate improved to a tight balance in August, and the supply - demand gap continued to narrow. It is expected to continue improving throughout the year, but the improvement will be limited. In the second half of the year, the upstream supply growth is likely to remain stable, downstream demand still has some growth potential, and the cost side, especially the ore end, has little room for further decline. After recent sharp price fluctuations, the futures price is expected to stabilize, remaining above previous highs and mainly adjusting through wide - range oscillations [59].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The Shanghai zinc market fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 2,2285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.09%. There is an increasing divergence between domestic and foreign markets, and the processing fees continue to rise. Although the zinc ingot production remains at a high level despite short - term disturbances from Guangxi smelters, the demand side is supported by policies but shows short - term weakness. The production restriction in North China suppresses the galvanizing consumption, and the pressure of supply - demand surplus is reflected in the inventory. The social inventory increased to 146,300 tons on Monday. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons to 55,225 tons, the lowest level since May 2023. The 0 - 3 spread B continued to strengthen to 20.44. The expectation of macro - interest rate cuts and continuous de - stocking in LME boosted the external market, but the divergence in the fundamental situation between domestic and foreign markets continued, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation of Shanghai zinc [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,255 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,230 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,340 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 9,610 and a position change of - 1,455. For SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,250 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,285 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,390 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.09%, with a position of 104,733 and a position change of - 2,929. For SHFE zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,245 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,285 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,380 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,215 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.16%, with a position of 66,280 and a position change of 1,473 [7]. 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transaction Prices**: On September 3, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,250 - 22,360 yuan/ton, that of Shuangyan was between 22,380 - 22,490 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,180 - 22,290 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the futures. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Huize was quoted at a premium of 60 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8]. - **Regional Market Quotes**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brands of 0 zinc were traded at around 22,240 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and the regular brands were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 22,210 - 22,360 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots were traded around 22,160 - 22,280 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded between 22,180 - 22,320 yuan/ton, and the mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report shows charts including the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12]