Report Information - Report Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon futures market is in a weak position with the main contract price breaking through support levels. The spot price continues to decline slightly. The market is mainly driven by its commodity attributes due to low macro - policy attention. The fundamentals have remained weak since early April, with high supply, decreasing demand, and high inventory. The imbalance between supply and demand has not reversed, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term without room for a rebound [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures (Si2505) closed at 9,785 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume was 122,687 lots, and the open interest was 220,162 lots, with a net decrease of 9,139 lots [4] 3.2. Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline slightly. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 9,600 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,850 yuan/ton, 10,350 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 10,400 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 10,900 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4] 3.3. Market Outlook - Since the end of March, the industrial silicon market has been mainly driven by its commodity attributes. From early April to now, the fundamentals have remained weak. The minimum weekly output for supply - demand balance should be 63,000 tons, but the current weekly output is around 72,000 tons. The monthly demand is decreasing, with polysilicon production stable but most enterprises reducing production, and organic silicon enterprises collectively cutting production to support prices, resulting in monthly demand shrinking to about 100,000 tons. High inventory is also a major factor suppressing the rebound. As of the third week of April, the inventory was 756,455 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased to 2.44. The imbalance between supply and demand has not significantly reversed, and improvement depends on the negative feedback of losses on the supply side. The decline in spot prices has opened up downward space for the futures market, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] 3.4. Market News - On April 21, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 70,215 lots, a net decrease of 146 lots from the previous trading day. In the third week of April, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,030 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%. The inventory in the third week of April was 407,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 116.28% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure in the upstream and midstream persists, continuing to test the demand [2] - For glass, the actual cold - repair production lines in the first quarter were slightly lower than expected, and the ignition rhythm was relatively fast. The market still has differences on long - term demand. For the 05 contract, the game continues. As the delivery approaches, the price trend is close to Hubei, the price low - lying area. Attention should be paid to the spot changes and production - sales situation in mid - to late April [4] - For纯碱, although there may be short - term maintenance that causes periodic fluctuations in production, it does not affect the overall supply - demand pattern. The market remains in the consensus of medium - to long - term oversupply expectations, and the inventory is at a historical high with obvious pressure [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The current daily melting volume is 158,000 tons, remaining stable. In April, there was 1 new ignition production line, Hebei Great Wall Line 4 with a daily output of 700 tons (ignited on April 12, as planned) [3] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 65.203 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 554,000 heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%, and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The inventory days are 29.2 days, a decrease of 0.3 days compared with the previous period. It has been in the fourth week of continuous inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction slope has narrowed. The production - sales rate weakened significantly in the second half of the week, which may be related to the weather. The average weekly overall production - sales rate is around 105. Currently, the spot - futures inventory in Shahe is about 160,000 - 170,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is relatively high [3] Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are as follows: - 176 yuan for natural gas, + 117 yuan for coal - made gas, and + 26 yuan for petroleum coke [3] Demand - As of March 31, the national deep - processing order days are 8.2 days (+ 0.2 days), a month - on - month increase of 2.5%, and a year - on - year decrease of 33.3%; the deep - processing raw material inventory is 9.8 days (+ 1.2 days), a month - on - month increase of 14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0% [3] Strategy - The delivery factory warehouse of glass expanded by 100,000 tons within the week. Seasonally, the production - sales data performed well around the Tomb - sweeping Festival. Currently, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are not low, and there is still pressure on shipments. It is necessary to verify the improvement degree of real demand. From the production and inventory, the apparent demand of float glass from January to March is expected to decline by 7%. Although the demand has improved month - on - month, the overall improvement range is very limited [4] 纯碱 Supply - The weekly output is 713,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 22,800 tons), including 323,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons) and 389,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,100 tons). Jinshan No. 2 Plant is under maintenance, affecting the daily output of 5,000 tons. Tianjin Alkali Plant is expected to be under maintenance in early April, and Jiangsu Shilian, Xuzhou Fengcheng, and Jiangsu Huachang may be under maintenance in May. Currently, the daily output remains stable above 100,000 tons [5] Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.693 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8,400 tons (an increase of 9,100 tons for light soda ash and a decrease of 17,500 tons for heavy soda ash). The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 402,700 tons (a decrease of 12,800 tons). The total inventory of the factory and the delivery warehouse is 2.0954 million tons, and the inventory fluctuates at a high level [5] Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the combined - soda process (double - ton) is + 164 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process is - 87 yuan/ton [5] Demand - Driven by the rush - installation wave, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to increase. In April, there were 2 new ignition photovoltaic glass production lines (with a total daily output of 2,500 tons). Coupled with the continuous improvement of the kiln - blocking phenomenon, the current daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased to 96,000 tons. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to decline month - on - month, but the slope has slowed down. The ignition and cold - repair of float glass coexist, and the daily melting volume fluctuates at a low level. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash, deduced from float glass and photovoltaic glass, has improved month - on - month, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories remain at a high level [5] Strategy - There is relatively little maintenance in April, and the daily output may run at a high level. There is an expectation of mass production for new capacities. As the supply remains at a high level, the balance of heavy soda ash deduced from rigid demand continues to be in surplus. In general, even if short - term maintenance causes periodic fluctuations in production, it does not affect the overall supply - demand pattern. The market remains in the consensus of medium - to long - term oversupply expectations, and the inventory is at a historical high with obvious pressure. On the demand side, the rigid demand deduced from the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has slightly improved month - on - month, and the pressure on the finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass has been alleviated. The further downward driving force for the price of soda ash lies in the continuous accumulation of inventory and the price - cut actions of alkali plants [6]