政经热点 Political and economic hotspots 全球主要股票指数 | 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 44837.56 | -64.36 | -0.14% | | | 纳斯达克 | 21178.58 | 70.26 | 0.33% | | | 标普500 | 6389.77 | 1.13 | 0.02% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5337.58 | -14.58 | -0.27% | | | 英国富时100 | 9081.44 | -38.87 | -0.43% | | | 法国CAC40 = | 7800.88 > | -33.7 | -0.43% | | | w.qelonghul 德国DAX | 23970.36 | www.gogudata.com -247.14 | -1.02% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1081.1 | -16.74 | -1.52% | | MATE | 上证指数 | 3597.94 | 4.28 | 0.12% | | | ...

7月29日（周二），伦敦和上海期铜双双下滑，因交易商权衡中美谈判以及世界第一大铜生产国智利与 美国就8月1日起对铜征收50%关税的谈判。 智利财政部长Mario Marcel周一在采访中称， 智利预计铜关税问题将在华盛顿举行的更广泛的美智贸易 谈判中进行讨论。 他补充说，智利将要求将这些关税纳入与美国的更广泛的贸易协定之中。 秘鲁总统Dina Boluarte表示，秘鲁正在评估134个矿业勘探和开采项目的授权，这些项目预计投资规模 达60亿美元。秘鲁政府希望提高这一关键产业的收入。 Boluarte在国会发表讲话时表示，她预计到今年年底，正规小规模采矿业的年销售额将超过50亿美元， 到2026年，47亿美元的正规项目应该已经开工建设。 其他基本金属方面，沪铝主力合约下跌0.22%，报收于20,605元；沪锌主力合约下跌0.35%，报收于 22,655元；沪锡主力合约下滑0.76%，报收于266,660元；沪镍主力合约跌0.85%，报收于121,800元；沪 铅主力合约收跌0.24%，至每吨16,900元。 北京时间16:26，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜下滑0.16%，报每吨9,777美元。 上海期货交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, while the medium - to - long - term supply is tight. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. Caution is needed [9][10] - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in September [11] - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate recently [13] - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] - For plastics, it is expected to oscillate recently, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] - For PVC, it is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] - For coking coal, due to high volatility, cautious operation is advisable [19] - For urea, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on July 29, most domestic futures contracts declined. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, while glass dropped over 7%. In stock index futures, most contracts rose, and in treasury bond futures, most contracts declined [4] Capital Flows - As of 15:14 on July 29, rebar 2510, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had capital inflows of 1.39 billion, 1.272 billion, and 1.225 billion respectively. Lithium carbonate 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and ferromanganese silicon 2509 had capital outflows of 1.658 billion, 1.36 billion, and 827 million respectively [5] Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is currently loose due to tariff influence and may tighten in the long run. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price is declining. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [9][10] Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ will increase production. Prices are expected to oscillate [11] Asphalt - Supply and demand indicators show mixed trends. It is expected to oscillate recently [13] PP - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply and cost factors interact. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] Plastics - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply increases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] Coking Coal - Supply is stable, and demand is strong. High volatility requires cautious operation [19] Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory removal slows. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]

隔夜，现货黄金大幅下跌，盘中最低触及近三周低点3301.29美元，收盘报3314.44美元，跌幅约0.66%，这已是连续第四个交易日下跌。今日欧市盘中， 黄金窄幅震荡，目前在3322元附近徘徊。 继续向美联储施压！ 隔夜，美股三大指数震荡分化，截至收盘，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数微涨0.02%。 消息面上，特朗普贸易谈判有了新进展。 当地时间7月28日，中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。据悉，会议议程包括讨论当前的关税休战期可以延长多久，以及购买俄罗斯 石油的问题。 中美第一天贸易会谈结束（于当地时间晚7:50左右结束），并将于周二继续进行，未有消息传出。初步消息可能在 7月30日22:00–23:00 北京时间发布，后 续声明及细节可能延至当夜或7月31日凌晨。 这次会谈可能不会在特定的议题上取得突破，这不是一次"要谈出结果"的会，而是一次"看彼此底线"的会。 除了8月1日特朗普关税大限之外，美股市场本周将迎来一系列重磅事件的扰动，其中包括，美联储议息、科技巨头财报、非农报告和通胀数据。 根据日程安排，美股周三盘中，美联储将发布7月利率决议。 目前市场认为这次会议降息 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows. It also provides data on key agricultural products such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with information on livestock and macro - economic indicators both in the US and globally [1][3][7][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, and related products are presented. Price changes of major currencies are also provided [1]. - Information on futures - spot price differences (basis) for palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions, as well as CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [1]. 02 Spot Market No specific content provided. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气 -** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have low temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 2 - 6. The Midwest has good soil moisture with rain this week, and although there is high - temperature stress, the overall situation is favorable for crops [3][5]. - **国际供需 -** - Malaysian palm oil production from July 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while exports decreased by 8.53% [7]. - As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. The flowering and pod - setting rates are also reported [8]. - Brazilian soybean exports in the first four weeks of July 2025 increased by 12% compared to the daily average of July last year [9]. - Argentina reduced export withholding tax rates for various agricultural products [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index declined on Monday due to falling freight rates of all ship types [10]. - **国内供需 -** - On July 28, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 72% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also increased, and the oil - mill operating rate rose [12]. - As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils increased slightly, with palm oil inventory rising and soybean oil inventory falling [12]. - As of July 28, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports increased [13]. - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig - slaughtering enterprises decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28, there were price changes in major agricultural products in the wholesale market [14]. 04 Macro News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.6% [16]. - The US July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index was 0.9, better than expected [16]. - The US Treasury increased its borrowing forecast for the third quarter by $453 billion [16]. - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28 [16]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, including tariff and investment details [16]. - The US will not extend the tariff - increase deadline on August 1, but Trump is ready to continue tariff negotiations [16]. - OPEC + is considering another production - increase action and will discuss September's production level on August 3 [17]. - **Domestic News** - On July 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted up, and the Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On July 28, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 18.351 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 23.813 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 5.461 billion yuan in stock - index futures. Details of fund flows for major futures varieties are provided [22][23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - As of July 29, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 770.70 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.33% [1] - The opening price for the day was 772.66 CNY per gram, with a maximum of 773.30 CNY and a minimum of 767.68 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro Economic News - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [1] - U.S. Treasury Department forecasts a borrowing increase of 453 billion USD for Q3, raising the borrowing estimate to 1.007 trillion USD from April's prediction [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 96.9%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 3.1% [3] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The market's risk aversion is easing as the U.S. reaches agreements with Japan and the EU, while talks with China are ongoing [4] - Recent macro data from the U.S. shows resilience, reducing concerns about the deterioration of the U.S. economic fundamentals [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and policies is expected to lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, with precious metals likely to maintain high volatility in this uncertain environment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it's expected that there won't be a trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered [10][11]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [13][14]. - In the case of rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on low - position long opportunities after the correction [15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - position buying opportunities after the correction [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, investors are advised to wait and see [20][21]. - Regarding ferroalloys, long - position exit opportunities can be considered when the market continues to rise, and long positions at low - support intervals can be considered if there is a decline [23]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [28]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][31]. - For natural rubber, it's expected to oscillate strongly [32][33]. - For PVC, it's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34][38]. - For urea, it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39][40]. - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the future, and investors should participate cautiously [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term, and investors should participate in the range [43]. - For ethylene glycol, investors should be cautious about the upside space in the short term and participate in the range [44][45]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [46]. - For bottle chips, it's expected to oscillate following the cost [47][48]. - For glass, continue to pay attention to spot trading and regional de - stocking; in the long - term, focus on the implementation of capacity clearance of old production lines [49][50]. - For caustic soda, the positive support is relatively limited, and it's affected by macro - sentiment recently [52]. - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and pay attention to policy trends and actual spot transactions [54][55]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to watch more and act less and control risks [56]. - For copper, there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. - For tin, it's expected to oscillate [59]. - For nickel, it's expected to oscillate [60]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long opportunities in the support interval for soybean meal after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support interval after the decline [62]. - For palm oil, consider long opportunities after the correction [64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long opportunities [65]. - For cotton, it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [67][68]. - For sugar, it's recommended to wait and see [71]. - For apples, it's recommended to wait and see [75]. - For live pigs, consider holding previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn and starch, consider virtual - value call option opportunities in the previous low - level interval for near - month corn contracts; corn starch follows the corn market [83]. - For logs, the market has returned to the actual spot situation [87]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The national industrial and information technology conference emphasized measures to expand domestic demand [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and China's economy has resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement [12]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations dominate the market, and the actual supply - demand pattern is secondary [15]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the core influencing factor. The supply - demand pattern is still strong, but it may adjust in the short term [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit down. The direct cause was the position - limit measure, and the deep - seated reason was the excessive previous rise. The supply - contraction policy has become a reality [20]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures closed down. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak [22][23]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the number of US oil rigs decreased. OPEC+ is unlikely to change the production plan [24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The fuel oil inventory in Japan and Singapore has changed. The supply in the Asian market is sufficient, but trade agreements are beneficial to the shipping market [27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply is affected by rainfall, and the demand has recovered slightly. It's expected to oscillate strongly [32]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply is excessive, but the downward space may be limited. It's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. The supply - demand situation has weakened recently, and it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The supply load has decreased, and the import volume has changed. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and it may oscillate and adjust [41][42]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply and demand have changed little, and the cost has some support. It may oscillate in the short term [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased. Be cautious about the upside space in the short term [44]. Staple Fiber - Last trading day, staple fiber futures fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate following the cost [46]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips futures fell. The device maintenance has increased, and the demand has recovered. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [47]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory has decreased, and the price in some regions has risen. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the follow - up needs to focus on spot trading and de - stocking [49][50]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production has increased, and the inventory has changed. The positive support is limited [51][52]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53][54]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand has improved slightly, but the trading is inactive. Be cautious and control risks [56]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The spot premium is expected to remain weak, but there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption is weak. It's expected to oscillate [59]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply is excessive, and the consumption is not optimistic. It's expected to oscillate [60]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures closed down. The US soybean yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. Consider different investment opportunities for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long opportunities after the correction [63][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed weakened. The domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory situation is different. Consider long opportunities [65]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated at a high level. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [66][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated strongly. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory and import volume have changed. It's recommended to wait and see [69][71]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose sharply and then fell. The expected production reduction has been falsified. It's recommended to wait and see [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand is average. Consider holding previous short positions [76][77]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas fell. The supply is increasing, and it's recommended to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [78][80]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn and starch futures rose. The US corn yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply - demand is approaching balance. Consider option opportunities for corn and follow the corn market for starch [81][83]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The market has returned to the actual spot situation [84][85][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has high investment value in the medium - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science - innovation policy support, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 have defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][12] - The market for crude oil is affected by factors such as trade agreements and OPEC's production decisions. The organization may fully restore the additional voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September [4][14] - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade situations. For example, the prices of glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion, and their market performance is related to the "anti - involution" policy and fundamental repair [17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft on Wednesday, including a record 126.7 billion euros in investment for infrastructure and defense [6] 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Party Group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, protecting their land rights, and promoting urban - rural integration development with the county as the focus [7] 3.1.3 Industry News - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an "anti - involution" initiative, opposing low - price disorderly competition and dumping below cost [8] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas financial products on July 25 and July 28, such as the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and ICE Brent crude oil [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The A - share market had a volatile rebound. The defense and military industry sector led the rise, and the coal sector adjusted. The trading volume reached 1.77 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, which is conducive to reducing market volatility [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.715%. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the tightness of the capital market eased. Due to policy expectations and market sentiment, the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices will increase [13] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 2.06% at night. The US and the EU reached a new trade agreement. OPEC and its allies will hold a meeting on August 3 to decide the production level in September [4][14] - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.23% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventory continued to rise, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways at night. The spot market was stable. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and the supply - demand relationship [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. They are in the process of inventory digestion. The market sentiment was affected by policy expectations and fundamental repair [17] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. Supply - side factors supported the price, while the demand side was weak. The inventory in Qingdao continued to increase, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to decline [18] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices weakened continuously, and silver also corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the reduction of risk - aversion sentiment led to the decline. The long - term driving force for gold still exists, but the prices may fluctuate [19] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The low processing fees of concentrates and low copper prices test smelting production. The downstream demand is generally stable, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [20] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The processing fees of concentrates continued to rise. The market expects an improvement in supply, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi and then fell sharply. The production increased slightly, and the inventory continued to rise. The short - term core contradiction lies in warehouse receipts, and the medium - term upside is limited [22] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the profit - driven production of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The supply - demand imbalance pressure is large in the medium term, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [24] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The export of billets is strong. The market is affected by macro - expectations and raw material sentiment, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [25] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily hot metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills increased slightly. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range after the correction [3][26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal traded weakly. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was lower than expected, and the export prospects are uncertain. The price of soybean meal is expected to have limited downside [27] - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats closed up at night. The fundamental data of Indonesia is positive, and the export of palm oil to the EU is expected to increase. The production and export data of Malaysian palm oil are negative in the short term, but the price is expected to rise slowly in the long term [28] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 1.84%. The SCFIS European line index decreased, and the spot freight rate is showing signs of decline. The market is waiting to see the extent and slope of the freight rate correction [30]

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