A股三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.03%，创业板指涨0.2%。盘面上，AI语料、华为概念、云计算等板块 涨幅居前。 机构看后市 浙商证券：忽略市场短期波动，中线上以多头思维对待，均衡配置大金融+泛科技 浙商证券表示，展望后市，应该忽略短期波动，继续在中线上以多头思维对待市场。以技术视角看，目 前正处于日线"主升3浪"当中，"缓慢但坚定"的短期攻势仍未有明确的停止迹象。在风险偏好和流动性 驱动下，预测市场短期走势成为"高难度问题"。事实上，在主升3浪尚未完结的情况下，预计市场可能 并不会发生大的风险，上证的20日、60日线都将成为有效支撑。 行业配置方面，继续采取"大金融+泛科技"均衡配置(银行、非银等金融+军工/计算机/传媒/电子/电新等 科技成长)，同时继续增加对前期落后板块地产的关注度;此外，注意积极挖掘年线上方低位个股，做好 板块内"高低切"操作。 申万宏源：9月初前市场有望维持强势，9月初后休整幅度有限，关注创新药和算力 申万宏源表示，展望后市，全面牛市还需要积极因素的进一步累积：2026年基本面改善预期，供给出清 提供安全垫，但也要需求改善提供向上弹性。 东方证券：短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，密切关注 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current market trend is likely to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern rather than replicating the "fast bull" market of 2015, due to differences in macroeconomic narratives and liquidity conditions [1][10][29] - The investment strategy under the "slow bull" framework suggests a balanced approach, favoring "big finance + broad technology" sectors, with a focus on banks, non-bank financials, and technology growth areas such as military, computing, media, electronics, and new energy [1][31] Section Summaries 1. Fast Bull Market of 2014-2015 - Major narratives such as "Belt and Road," state-owned enterprise reform, and "Internet Plus" significantly propelled the index during the fast bull market [2][10] - Macro liquidity was enhanced through interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with R007 20MA dropping from 5.4% in January 2014 to approximately 2.5% by June 2015 [2][13] - Margin trading and financing saw rapid inflow, with the combined margin balance reaching 9.3% of the total A-share market capitalization by June 2015, indicating a strong liquidity environment [3][17] - The influx of off-market financing through systems like HOMS contributed significantly to market liquidity, with nearly 500 billion yuan flowing into the stock market by mid-2015 [4][25] 2. Current Slow Bull Market Since 2024 - The current market lacks the robust macro narratives seen in 2014-2015, with emerging themes like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals not matching the previous scale [29] - Current liquidity conditions are less favorable, with the reserve requirement ratio and R007 20MA at lower levels, limiting further downward adjustments [29] - The inflow speed of margin trading and financing is slower compared to the previous bull market, with combined balances only reaching 5.0% of the total A-share market capitalization by mid-2025 [3][30] - The absence of significant off-market financing mechanisms, similar to those in 2015, further constrains the potential for a fast bull market [29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for a diversified investment strategy focusing on "big finance + broad technology," suggesting that this combination is likely to outperform the benchmark [1][31] - There is an emphasis on sectors that have previously underperformed, such as real estate, which may present opportunities for catch-up growth [1][31]

核心观点 本周市场继续上冲，权重指数出现一定加速迹象，整个指数族涨势"雨露均沾"。展望 后市，上证指数已经突破 2021 年高点 3731 点并站上 3800 点大关，下一个中线目标有 望挑战 2015 年以来最大跌幅（5178-2440）的 0.618 分位，以当前位置看仍有较大空 间。考虑到短期攻势仍未有明确的停止迹象，我们建议适度忽略短线走势，并在重要 支撑（如 20 日、60 日均线）附近分别增加短线、中线配置。行业配置方面，继续采 取"大金融+泛科技"均衡配置（银行、非银等金融+军工/计算机/传媒/电子/电新等科 技成长），同时继续增加对前期落后板块地产的关注度；此外，注意积极挖掘年线上方 低位个股，做好板块内"高低切"操作。 ❑ 本周（2025-08-18 至 2025-08-22）行情概况 （1）主要指数：宽基指数集体收涨，科创 50 涨幅居前。（2）板块观察：TMT 四 杰强势领涨，周期红利明显落后。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比明显上升，股指 期货合约大多升水。（4）资金流向：两融余额明显上升，融资买入占比回落，股 票 ETF 净流出。（5）量化"黑科技"：创业板指估值相对较低，下跌能量模型处 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the formation of a new global trade framework in the "post-tariff" era, emphasizing the reduction of trade deficits and the return of manufacturing to the U.S. as key objectives of the Trump administration [4][6][25] - The average rate of the new "reciprocal tariffs" is approximately 20%, down from 29% in April, indicating a narrowing of differences among various economies [7][14] - The report constructs a quantitative assessment framework based on three dimensions: price elasticity, share resilience, and capacity elasticity, to analyze the competitive advantages and challenges faced by Chinese manufacturing [4][8] Group 2 - Chinese manufacturing maintains a price advantage, with most products showing a price advantage concentrated in the 0%-75% range, suggesting that even under extreme assumptions of tariff costs, many products still hold competitive pricing [8][10] - The resilience of market share is crucial, as certain products like small appliances and air conditioners exhibit both price advantages and strong market shares, indicating higher demand resilience [8][10] - The report notes that while tariff risks cannot be completely eliminated, the globalization of supply chains is mitigating some of these risks, particularly in key manufacturing sectors [9][10] Group 3 - Certain core products from Chinese manufacturing are expected to maintain strong export competitiveness despite current tariff conditions, with specific categories like electronics and home appliances showing notable resilience [10][22] - The report emphasizes that U.S. importers may find it less cost-effective to switch suppliers in the short term, as the overall impact of tariffs on exports is lower than anticipated [10][22] - The analysis suggests that the ongoing trade negotiations and tariff adjustments will continue to shape the competitive landscape for Chinese manufacturing in the global market [25]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is experiencing a "systematic slow bull" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 2024 high of 3674, indicating a potential target of 3731, the peak of the 2021 structural bull market [1][4][57] - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "large finance + broad technology" sectors, suggesting to increase short and medium-term positions near key support levels [1][5][58] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices recorded positive returns, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.70%, and the ChiNext Index showing a significant increase of 8.58% [12][55] - The financial and technology sectors are driving market performance, with comprehensive financial and non-bank financial sectors rising by 7.07% and 6.57% respectively [15][55] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with a 3.79% increase, while the red-chip style weakened, with banks dropping by 3.22% [56] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.08 trillion yuan, up from 1.68 trillion yuan the previous week [23] - The margin trading balance rose to 2.05 trillion yuan, with a financing buy-in ratio of 10.6% [30] - The medical ETF saw the highest net inflow of 1.42 billion yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced the largest outflow of 2.38 billion yuan [30] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market include the suspension of the 24% tariff by the US and China for 90 days, and the introduction of "dual interest subsidy" policies to support consumer markets [3][51][55] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mild recovery, indicating signs of demand-side improvement [55] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued upward momentum in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to target 3731, while emphasizing the importance of key support levels at the 20-day and 60-day moving averages [4][57] - The "systematic slow bull" nature of the current market suggests that sectors that are relatively undervalued will eventually be validated [57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "large finance + broad technology," while also increasing attention to previously lagging sectors like real estate [5][58] - Investors are advised to avoid short-term trading strategies that could lead to missed opportunities and instead focus on building positions near key support levels [5][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a bullish bias", for stock index options is "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures present expanding growth opportunities, with a suggestion to over - allocate small - cap growth styles and hold IM. Stock index options should adopt an offensive strategy, switching to a bull spread portfolio. Treasury bond futures remain under pressure and require caution [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contracts are - 6.51 points, - 1.50 points, - 23.56 points, - 18.34 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.66 points, 2.68 points, 0.54 points, 9.59 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, IM are 11.2 points, - 1.0 point, 69.4 points, 74.4 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.4 points, - 0.6 point, - 3.0 points, - 0.8 point. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM change by 14212 lots, 6800 lots, 9202 lots, 25544 lots. - The market remained strong on Monday, with the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index rising nearly 2%. The market volume approached 1.9 trillion. The new energy and computer sectors led the gains. The market focus is on the growth area, showing signs of partial spread, and the trend of capital reallocation is clear. It is recommended to over - allocate small - cap growth styles, and IM is preferred among stock index futures. Potential observation windows are the earnings season in August and the parade in early September [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The market turnover increased by 40.41%, and the PCR of the CSI 1000 stock index option positions increased by 6.15%. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 stock index option increased significantly. The market trading sentiment is active, and call options are entering the market. It is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio [6] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 76606 lots, 56309 lots, 34103 lots, 111356 lots respectively, with a one - day change of 17352 lots, 7436 lots, 7715 lots, 22612 lots. The positions are 157180 lots, 108276 lots, 78794 lots, 92576 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 8769 lots, - 3629 lots, - 3287 lots, - 1193 lots. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, TL are 0.105 yuan, - 0.045 yuan, - 0.038 yuan, 0.430 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of 0, 0.010 yuan, 0.014 yuan, 0.060 yuan. The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, T*3 - TL's current - quarter contracts are 102.975 yuan, 98.993 yuan, 300.961 yuan, 206.885 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.285 yuan. The basis of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 0.001 yuan, 0.020 yuan, 0.019 yuan, 0.150 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.039 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, 0.002 yuan, - 0.063 yuan. - The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 5448 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The rise in risk appetite and the strengthening of commodities may pressure the bond market. The tightening of the capital market also had a negative impact on the bond market. Although the bond market has shown some recovery, the bullish sentiment is unstable, and policy factors may cause significant disturbances. Trend strategy: be cautiously bearish. Hedging strategy: focus on short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: the arbitrage space of the main contracts may be limited. Curve strategy: focus on steepening the yield curve [7][8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The calendar includes economic indicators such as China's July M2 money supply annual rate, new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to July, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to July, as well as the US July CPI annual rate and PPI annual rate, and China's July total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In the field of artificial intelligence and agriculture, a research team proposed the concept of crop - robot collaborative design, developed an intelligent breeding robot, and established an "intelligent robot breeding factory", which is expected to break through the bottleneck of soybean hybrid breeding. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions. - Hangzhou solicited public opinions on a draft regulation to promote the development of the embodied intelligent robot industry, including infrastructure planning, core technology direction, and platform construction [11][12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment value of the ChiNext board, highlighting its role in supporting innovative and growth-oriented enterprises in China, particularly in the context of favorable macroeconomic conditions and government policies aimed at fostering technological innovation [3][5][7]. Group 1: National Policy Support - The ChiNext board has been positioned as a key platform for supporting innovative and growth-oriented enterprises since its establishment in 2009, focusing on "three innovations and four new" (innovation, creation, creativity, new technologies, new industries, new business formats, new models) [5]. - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting in December 2024 underscored the importance of promoting the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, indicating strong macro policy support for core assets on the ChiNext board [5]. - Continuous improvements in the registration system and related regulations are attracting more strategic emerging enterprises to list on the ChiNext board, aligning with the national strategy for innovation-driven development [5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment shows clear signs of recovery, providing strong support for the capital market, with a moderately loose monetary policy and increased fiscal spending [7]. - The global trend of major economies entering a rate-cutting cycle, particularly the strengthening of expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, is enhancing the willingness of global funds to allocate to emerging markets, benefiting the A-share market [7]. - The ChiNext board, representing growth sectors, has significant potential for valuation recovery and strong allocation value due to the improving internal and external environment [7]. Group 3: Key Industry Trends - Key industries within the ChiNext board are expected to emerge from cyclical lows, with signs of recovery in the lithium battery sector driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and price stabilization [8]. - The photovoltaic sector is also showing signs of recovery as supply-side pressures ease, potentially leading to an end to the low-price competition and a return to profitability [8]. - The biopharmaceutical industry is witnessing a turning point due to the easing of policy headwinds and a recovering investment environment, with expectations for a new upward cycle [8]. - The electronics and computer sectors are benefiting from the global AI wave, with high demand for computing infrastructure and AI applications driving growth [9]. Group 4: ChiNext Composite Index Characteristics - The ChiNext Composite Index (399102) serves as a core indicator reflecting the overall performance of the ChiNext market, covering over 1,300 stocks and providing comprehensive representation [11][12]. - The index is characterized by a high concentration of emerging industries, with significant representation from sectors such as power equipment, electronics, biopharmaceuticals, and computers [12]. - As of June 30, 2025, the index's price-to-book ratio is 3.59, indicating a relatively low valuation level, with analysts predicting a 60.21% year-on-year growth in net profit for 2025 [15][16]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The ChiNext Composite Enhanced ETF combines passive index investment with active management advantages, aiming to achieve returns that exceed the index through quantitative management techniques [17]. - The investment strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on a quantitative Alpha selection model that considers various fundamental and technical factors, aiming for a balanced and effective portfolio [18].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant downward revision in the US non-farm employment data for June, with a total adjustment of 90,000 jobs, primarily affecting government, leisure, and construction sectors, indicating potential economic instability due to tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation, with a possibility of 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of the year as trade negotiations progress [3] - The market is anticipated to enter a new upward phase in the second half of the year, with a focus on cyclical sectors and emerging industries [4][5] Group 2 - The FDCA industry is projected to grow significantly due to increasing demand for PEF as a superior alternative to PET, with recommended investments in companies like Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Zhenhai Refining [13] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, benefiting sectors like photovoltaic materials, with a focus on price elasticity in the supply chain [14][16] - The coal industry is seeing improved price expectations due to recent policy measures, with recommendations for investments in major coal companies [18] Group 3 - Qingdao Bank reported a 7.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 16%, indicating strong performance and asset quality [20] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, but maintains a "buy" rating based on long-term competitive advantages [23] - Huaneng International's second-quarter net profit increased by 50% year-on-year, driven by lower fuel costs and expansion in renewable energy [24] Group 4 - Ningde Times reported a 33.73% year-on-year increase in net profit for the second quarter of 2025, with strong market positioning in lithium batteries and new product developments [25] - Tencent is expected to see strong growth in core gaming and advertising revenues, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [26] - Meta Platforms exceeded revenue expectations in Q2 2025, with plans for increased investment in AI infrastructure [27]

Core Viewpoint - Current A-shares are poised to enter a comprehensive slow bull market, driven by economic recovery, increasing dividend scale and rates, and sustained liquidity [1][3][4] Economic and Profitability Trends - The economic and profitability fundamentals in China are on a continuous recovery trend, which is essential for the potential slow bull market [1][3] - Short-term economic expectations may have declined, but medium-term recovery is anticipated [4] Dividend and Liquidity Factors - A-shares are experiencing an increase in dividend scale and rates, which supports the slow bull market outlook [1][3] - Liquidity remains accommodative, with expectations of continued inflows into A-shares [4] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Market sentiment and valuation levels are currently neutral, which is a condition for the potential transition to a comprehensive slow bull market [3][4] - The recent major policy announcements have led to a stabilization period in policy, impacting market sentiment [3] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Short-term investment strategy suggests focusing on technology growth and cyclical sectors, with an emphasis on sectors benefiting from policy support and high growth potential [1][4] - Recommended sectors for low-cost positioning include AI applications in computing and media, communication (computing power), electronics (semiconductors), military, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - Additional sectors expected to benefit from anti-involution policies and improving expectations include new energy, non-ferrous metals, express delivery, and chemicals [1][4]

Stock Recommendations - Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) shows strong overseas growth potential with a steady increase in orders and confidence from management through share buybacks[4] - Guoneng Rixin (301162.SZ) reported a 40.14% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a net profit growth of 104.81%[25] - Ruihu Mould (002997.SZ) achieved a revenue of 1.662 billion yuan, up 48.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 227 million yuan, up 40.33%[26] - Shanhua Mountain (688410.SH) benefits from the recovery of blood dialysis machine tenders, leading to increased sales[27] - Yuanjie Technology (688498.SH) has a diverse product matrix with significant orders, indicating potential for improved profitability[28] - Gigabit (603444.SH) launched successful new games, with the mobile game "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" achieving top rankings, suggesting a positive outlook for 2025[29] - Shangmei Co., Ltd. (2145.HK) reported impressive sales during the 618 shopping festival, indicating strong brand performance and growth potential[30] Market Performance - The weighted return of the stock portfolio in July was -0.22%, while the equal-weighted return was 8.68%[14] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.97% in July, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 9.97%[14] - The best-performing stocks in July included Haopeng Technology with a return of 41.54% and Daotong Technology with 17.61%[15] Risk Factors - Economic recovery and policy support may fall short of expectations, posing risks to the market[31] - Individual company operational risks could impact stock performance[31]