2026 年 03 月 01 日 策略类●证券研究报告 美伊冲突不改 A 股慢牛趋势 事件点评 投资要点 事件：2 月 28 日，新华社报道称美国开始在伊朗实施重大作战行动。 对行业配置的影响：短期科技和周期仍是配置主线。（1）短期科技和周期仍是配 置主线。一是复盘历史，美伊冲突后 1 个交易日内国防军工、有色金属、石油石化 相对占优，冲突后 5、10、30 个交易日内对行业表现的影响逐渐减弱。二是当前 来看，短期科技和周期仍是配置主线：首先，美伊冲突可能进一步推升有色金属、 化工等商品价格，周期行业景气预期可能进一步上升；其次，避险情绪和油价上升 及美元上涨对科技股有一定负面影响，但 AI 产业趋势、军工科技预期上升等对科 技成长仍有较强支撑；再其次，国内两会来临，科技创新和反内卷、提振内需等政 策导向的科技、周期和部分消费可能受益；最后，两会后基本面影响上升，科技和 周期盈利趋势向上。（2）短期建议逢低配置：一是政策和产业趋势向上的有色金 属、化工、军工、半导体、AI 硬件、AI 应用、电新、创新药、机器人等行业；二 是可能补涨和基本面可能边际改善的非银金融、消费等行业。 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用 ...

对此，兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧表示，年初以来涨幅居前的30个概念指数，25个均与涨价相关， 涨价领域正在由有色向油气、化工、建材、科技等更广阔的范围扩散。"往后看，'涨价'作为'景气'的代 名词和决定风格扩散的核心因素，有望成为今年最重要的一条主线，全年对于'涨价'这一逻辑需要充分 重视。"他表示。 2026年以来，"涨价"成为资本市场上一条最重要的交易线索。春节长假后，涨价概念股走势强劲，如化 工、有色等板块领涨大盘。 节奏上，张启尧认为，3月和4月作为全年验证涨价、交易涨价的第一个重要窗口，随着国内涨价线索进 一步丰富、更多领域涨价有望迎来验证，涨价作为当前企业盈利回升和市场风格扩散的重要逻辑，可能 会被当成一个核心线索去轮动、交易。 张启尧分析称，综合多维度因素，电新（电池、电网设备）、机械（工程机械、专用设备、通用设备、 自动化设备）、TMT（电子、通信、游戏）以及创新药、新消费、造船、商用车、汽车零部件、化学 制品等细分方向均存在确定性较强的出海机会。 （文章来源：深圳商报） 张启尧分析称，一方面，涨价作为反映业绩改善和景气上行的最直接、最显性的信号，交易涨价本质上 就是在交易景气。随着今年盈利 ...

2026 年 02 月 22 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后春季行情可能延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 2026.2.13 主动偏股基金加仓有色、通信，减仓医药 2026.2.12 震荡波动呈现收敛，新股板块向上活跃周期 或依然在途-华金证券新股周报 2026.2.8 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 25 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节前市场担忧的风险因素在假期期间基本未发生。（1）春节期间出行和消费数据 偏好，对经济和盈利的担忧未出现。一是春节期间出行数据同比增长明显。二是春 节期间消费数据也偏好。（2）美国通胀回落，流动性收紧的担忧未出现。一是美 国 1 月 CPI 同比增速从 2025 年 12 月的 2.7%下滑至 2.4%，同时 1 月非农时薪同 比增速继续下滑至 3.71%，通胀和就业市场继续降温，美联储年内大概率继续降息。 二是美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trading activities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, focusing on the top traded stocks, sector performances, and ETF transactions, indicating significant capital flows and market trends. Group 1: Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 1,420.94 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 1,468.44 billion, totaling 2,889.38 billion for the day [2][1]. - The top traded stock in the Shanghai market was Kweichow Moutai (600519) with a transaction amount of 44.03 billion, while in the Shenzhen market, the leading stock was Tianfu Communication (300394) with 29.86 billion [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector saw the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 15.79 billion, with a net inflow rate of 2.80% [6][7]. - Other sectors with notable capital inflows included the film and television industry (12.34 billion, 6.99%) and banking (10.70 billion, 2.83%) [5][6]. - Conversely, the new energy sector experienced the largest net outflow of capital at -202.14 billion, with a net outflow rate of -7.41% [7][8]. Group 3: ETF Transactions - The top ETF by trading volume was the Gold ETF (518880) with a transaction amount of 200.574 billion, reflecting a growth of 30.13% compared to the previous trading day [13]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513070) saw a remarkable increase in trading volume, growing by 363.47% [14]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Pingtan Development (stock code not specified) led the net inflow of capital among individual stocks with 12.85 billion, representing a net inflow rate of 47.22% [9]. - In contrast, Zijin Mining (stock code not specified) had the highest net outflow of 22.93 billion, with a net outflow rate of -17.10% [10][11]. Group 5: Market Activity - The article notes a decrease in institutional trading activity, with fewer stocks being bought and sold compared to previous days [16]. - Notably, Pingtan Development experienced a strong surge, attracting significant investments from top-tier speculative funds [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant trading activity in the stock market, particularly focusing on the food and beverage sector, with notable performances from companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tianfu Communication, indicating strong investor interest and capital inflow in these areas [1][3]. Trading Activity - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 288.94 billion, with Kweichow Moutai and Tianfu Communication leading in individual stock trading volumes [1]. - Kweichow Moutai topped the Shanghai Stock Connect with a trading amount of 4.403 billion, while Tianfu Communication led the Shenzhen Stock Connect with 2.986 billion [2][3]. Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a net inflow of 1.579 billion, marking a 2.80% net inflow rate, making it the top sector for capital inflow [4]. - Other sectors with notable capital inflows included the film and television industry and banking, while sectors like new energy and non-ferrous metals experienced significant outflows [4]. Individual Stock Movements - Pingtan Development recorded a net inflow of 1.285 billion, representing a 47.22% net inflow rate, making it the top individual stock for capital inflow [5]. - Conversely, Zijin Mining faced a net outflow of 2.293 billion, indicating a 17.10% net outflow rate, leading the outflow list [6]. ETF Trading - The top ETF by trading volume was the Gold ETF (518880) with a trading amount of 20.0574 billion, while the A500 ETF Fund (512050) followed with 15.6820 billion [7]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513070) saw a remarkable 363% increase in trading volume compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened investor interest [7]. Futures Market - In the futures market, all four major index futures contracts (IH, IF, IC, IM) saw both long and short positions increase, with the IM contract showing the largest increase in long positions [8]. Institutional Activity - Institutional trading activity showed a decrease in both the number of stocks bought and sold, with notable purchases in stocks like Jushi Technology and Haixia Innovation [9][11]. - The trading activity of quantitative funds was high, particularly in stocks like Zhejiang Wenlian, which saw significant buying and selling from various quantitative funds [12].

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "Mainline Industry Combination" which is constructed based on the alpha performance of heavy stocks held by industry-focused funds and their commonality in industry distribution. The model identifies high alpha industry-focused funds by calculating the monthly excess returns of their heavy stocks relative to their respective industry indices, synthesizing monthly alpha values, and applying a linear time decay weighted scoring system to select the top 20% of funds. It then verifies consensus at the industry level by analyzing the concentration of these selected funds in specific industries, determining potential mainline industries for investment[28][29][30] - The report evaluates the "Mainline Industry Combination" model as effective in capturing core market trends during clear industry cycles, such as food and beverage in 2016, pharmaceuticals in 2019-2020, and TMT in 2024-2025. However, its performance is limited during periods of rapid industry rotation or unclear market mainlines due to signal bias or increased empty positions[36][39][42] - The backtesting results of the "Mainline Industry Combination" model show an annualized return of 20.91% from 2016 to January 2026, with an annualized excess return of 14.62% compared to equity-biased fund indices. The model demonstrates high annual win rates, particularly during clear industry trend periods, but faces challenges in accumulating excess returns during rapid market rotations[36][38][39] - The report introduces another quantitative model named "Industry Rotation Fund Combination," which is constructed by identifying non-industry-focused funds with high industry turnover rates. The model calculates the turnover rate of fund holdings by comparing the proportion of heavy stocks in different industries across consecutive periods, and selects the top 30% of funds with the highest turnover rates. Further, it uses factor backtesting to identify funds with high dynamic returns and small-cap stock preferences, forming a combination of the top 10 funds with the highest scores[61][64][68] - The "Industry Rotation Fund Combination" model is evaluated as highly adaptable to volatile markets with frequent industry rotations, complementing the "Mainline Industry Combination" model. It performs better in periods lacking clear market mainlines, such as 2018 and 2023, by actively switching industries to adapt to changing market trends[68][69][70] - The backtesting results of the "Industry Rotation Fund Combination" model show an annualized return of 15.05% from 2016 to January 2026, with an annualized excess return of 8.60% compared to equity-biased fund indices. The model demonstrates strong adaptability in volatile markets, achieving higher excess returns during periods of rapid industry rotation[68][69][70] - The report combines the two strategies, "Mainline Industry Combination" and "Industry Rotation Fund Combination," to form a comprehensive model named "Capturing Industry Opportunities Combination." This model adjusts its strategy based on market liquidity changes, using the monthly change in the average daily trading volume of the CSI 800 Index over the past 200 trading days as a leading indicator. When market liquidity expands, the mainline strategy is preferred, while the rotation strategy is favored during liquidity contraction. The combined model achieves an annualized return of 19.61% and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.77, with an annualized excess return of 13.32% compared to equity-biased fund indices[72][73][76]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week, with trading volume remaining high [1] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In Q4 2025, actual GDP growth rate declined by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, with an annual growth rate of 5%, aligning with market expectations [3][18] - Net exports contributed positively to economic growth, increasing from 1.4% to 1.2%, while investment and consumption contributions decreased [18] - December retail sales growth fell for the seventh consecutive month, dropping from 1.3% in November to 0.9% in December, below the market expectation of 1.0% [18] - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline in December, reaching -3.8%, also below market expectations [4][19] - Real estate development investment saw a significant drop, with cumulative year-on-year growth at -17.2% and monthly growth at -35% [19] Investment Outlook - The market is experiencing a divergence, with high trading volume and a slight decrease in financing levels [8][21] - Short-term views indicate a favorable liquidity environment, supported by a weak dollar cycle and gradual appreciation of the RMB, alongside active institutional funds [9][22] - Concerns about the end of the spring market rally are growing, but no significant policy tightening or fundamental deterioration has been observed [22] - Mid-term perspectives favor technology growth as a key direction, with expectations of gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals [10][23] - Long-term views highlight the ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition, with potential support for China's equity market from foreign capital inflows [11][25] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation phase, while aggressive sectors may face pressure [12][26] - Continued focus on technology, particularly in AI and related fields, is expected to drive performance [12][26] - The market is likely to see opportunities in sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high economic activity, such as chemicals and construction materials [12][26]

【主力资金监控：电新行业净流出超103亿】智通财经1月28日电，智通财经星矿数据显示，今日早盘主 力资金净流入工业金属、有色金属、通信等板块，净流出电新行业、电力设备、机械设备等板块，其中 电新行业净流出超103亿元。个股方面，网宿科技一度涨停，主力资金净买入超16.85亿元位居首位，N 恒运昌、中际旭创、中国铝业获主力资金净流入居前；阳光电源遭净卖出超14亿元，蓝色光标、航天电 子、华天科技资金净流出额居前。 转自：智通财经 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with a decline in trading volume at high levels [14] - The market experienced a cooling down after a period of heightened emotions, with a rapid decrease in market liquidity and financing levels [19] Macro Data Analysis - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations and showing month-on-month growth [4][16] - For the entire year of 2025, exports are projected to grow by 5.5%, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three driving forces [4][16] - The strong export performance in December is attributed to sustained external demand during the global manufacturing cycle and a rush to export due to domestic tax rebate policy reductions [4][16] - The new export orders index for China's manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% in December, supporting the evidence of strong external demand [4][16] - Key export items included computers, integrated circuits, and automobiles, with the latter showing the strongest growth, potentially influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy for Chinese cars [4][17] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is expected to benefit from favorable liquidity conditions, a weak dollar cycle, and a gradual appreciation of the RMB, alongside active institutional funds and insurance sector dynamics [19] - The spring market rally is driven by hotspots in commercial aerospace and AI applications, leading to an increase in market risk appetite [19] - However, the rapid momentum of the market may accumulate risks, prompting regulatory measures to cool down the stock market [19] Mid-term Market Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [20] - The current economic fundamentals and technology narratives have not fundamentally changed, and the technology sector remains a priority for allocation [20] - There are concerns regarding the fundamentals of many defensive dividend sectors and cyclical sectors, which may require strong catalysts for further market development [20] Long-term Market Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance and institutional credibility [21] - Despite uncertainties in the US economic outlook and the Fed's interest rate cuts, the RMB has appreciated against the USD, which could support China's equity market if foreign capital continues to flow in [21] - The trend towards long-term capital from public funds and insurance companies is expected to strengthen, with significant stock holdings by major A-share listed insurance companies [21] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation period, with potential for fund allocation if aggressive sectors continue to face pressure [22] - The focus remains on technology sectors, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace, which are expected to provide strong short-term performance [23] - There is a need to monitor the stabilization of AI applications and related sectors for potential investment opportunities [23]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries remained unchanged and rebounded, respectively, with inflation expectations slightly decreasing [1][15] - Offshore US dollar liquidity is generally loose, while the domestic interbank funding situation is balanced but tight. The term spread (10Y-1Y) has narrowed [1][15] Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity has significantly decreased, with the volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 indices rising. Sectors such as military, electric new energy, consumer services, chemicals, and home appliances have trading heat levels above the 90th percentile [2][25] - The volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 indices has increased, while the volatility of various sectors remains below the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with liquidity metrics for various sectors remaining below the 60th historical percentile [2][35] Institutional Research - The research heat for sectors such as electronics, electric new energy, automotive, computers, and machinery is high, while only the banking sector has seen a sequential increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has continued to rise [4][50] - Specific sectors such as agriculture, non-ferrous metals, consumer services, computers, and electronics have seen upward adjustments in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index, CSI 500, and Shanghai Composite 50 for 2026/2027 have been increased, while the forecasts for the CSI 300 have been adjusted downwards/upwards [4][51] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, but there continues to be a net purchase of A-shares. The ratio of total buying and selling in sectors like electronics, automotive, and home appliances has increased [5][31] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, the main net purchases have been in electronics, electric new energy, and chemicals, while net sales have occurred in computers, media, and military sectors [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has continued to decline, reaching its lowest level since late July 2025. The net selling last week was 8.265 billion yuan, with significant net purchases in non-ferrous metals, finance, and food and beverage sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases across various sectors has decreased [6][38] - Margin financing continues to net buy large-cap growth/value sectors [6][39] Dragon and Tiger List Trading Activity - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list has continued to rise, although the total trading amount on the list as a percentage of total A-share trading has decreased [7][41] Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen significant net redemptions. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in light industry, banking, and pharmaceuticals, while reducing positions in electric new energy, communications, and chemicals [8][45] - The correlation of active equity funds with large/mid-cap growth/value has increased, while the correlation with small-cap growth/value has decreased [8][48] - The scale of newly established equity funds has continued to rise, with active and passive funds seeing respective increases and slight decreases [8][50]