1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices showed a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and the uncertainty of Trump's policies. Some in the market believe that the current oil price has factored in a risk premium of about $10, and potential supply disruptions may push the oil price to break through further. - From a macro and fundamental perspective, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but anticipates two rate cuts this year, potentially stimulating the economy and boosting crude oil demand. Also, the largest decline in US crude oil inventories in a year last week supported the strong - side oscillation of oil prices. - In the short - term, the high - level oscillation trend is likely to continue, but market risks have increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the long side. Resistance levels are $75 - 76 for WTI, $78 - 79 for Brent, and 580 - 590 yuan for SC [51]. Methanol - Amid geopolitical conflicts, there is a strong sentiment for long - side allocation in the market. For ports, the import forecast has been revised down. If Iranian supply is interrupted, it may lead to the shutdown of supporting MTO plants or profit squeezing, potentially reducing production and alleviating the supply - demand contradiction at ports. It is necessary to monitor the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. - In the inland area, prices have slightly weakened, with the increase driven by the futures market. On the supply side, plant restarts have led to an increase in production, while demand is in the off - season, limiting the room for valuation expansion. A short - term positive spread strategy is recommended [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, recent开工 has declined, and the capacity utilization rate in Shandong has dropped to 83%. Although some production may resume as costs decline, the driving force for caustic soda is limited. The main alumina plants in Shandong have continuously lowered their purchase prices, weakening the drive for the spot market. Non - aluminum demand is weak, and inventory is not an effective driving factor. The current caustic soda spot price is falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [57][58]. - For PVC, the short - term contradiction has not intensified further, and the price has strengthened due to the sharp increase in energy prices under geopolitical conflicts and the macro - sentiment. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent as the domestic real - estate sector is in a downward trend, dragging down terminal demand. With fewer maintenance plans in June and new plant startups in June - July, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a mid - term short - selling strategy [58]. Styrene - Market fluctuations mainly follow changes in crude oil and styrene futures. With downstream public tenders and low styrene inventory in commercial tanks, and the strong - side movement of oil prices, pure benzene's price only slightly followed due to its own supply - demand structure. Styrene port inventory has been declining, and spot supply is limited. Geopolitical factors have driven up crude oil prices, strengthening the near - term basis. Although integrated styrene plants have restarted, most of the supply is for contract fulfillment, resulting in limited market - flowing goods. - It is necessary to pay attention to the possible weakening of styrene's supply - demand balance due to high profits. Styrene's valuation is likely to be restored through price declines considering pure benzene's inventory and import pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - side opportunities from the resonance of raw material prices in the medium - term [65]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - The sharp increase in oil prices has suppressed costs. Propylene and methanol have strengthened, while coal prices have shown a weak oscillation, compressing profits to a record low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory is differentiated (PP inventory accumulates, while PE inventory decreases). - Dynamically, there are many short - term PP maintenance plans, but new production capacity has been put into operation smoothly, leading to an increase in output. PE's start - up rate has increased, and more maintenance in mid - to late June may alleviate inventory accumulation. Demand is affected by the off - season and US tariffs, and the end of national subsidies at the beginning of the month has affected the demand for PP small household appliances. For PE, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for PP, a mid - term short - side strategy can be considered, while paying attention to the start - up situation of marginal production capacity (MTO, PDH) [68]. Urea - The core drivers are the concentration of exports and the sentiment boost caused by international geopolitical events, which are demand - side dominated. The Israel - Iran conflict has pushed up international prices, and the expected increase in exports has stimulated domestic buying sentiment, driving both futures and spot prices to rebound. - Secondary drivers include the high daily production on the supply side with potential support from local maintenance and the short - term positive impact of inventory reduction. Although industrial demand is weak and the agricultural sector is cautious, it has not reversed the upward trend. A cautiously bullish approach can be maintained in the short - term, and long positions can be established at low levels based on the export and inventory reduction logic. However, strict risk control is required as the basis has narrowed after the rapid price increase, and the futures market has shown over - buying signals [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Middle - East geopolitical news has continued to affect oil prices, and the significant reduction of 1.1 billion barrels in EIA crude oil inventories has supported oil prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short - term. Although PX supply has increased recently and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, the market is worried about raw material supply due to the escalation of Middle - East geopolitics, and the short - term supply - demand of PX is relatively tight. PX09 is expected to be strong in the short - term; it is recommended to wait and see on the 9 - 1 month spread of PX; and reduce positions at low levels for the strategy of narrowing the PX - SC spread. - **PTA**: PTA supply has increased significantly recently, and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, so the supply - demand is gradually weakening. However, due to the tight spot circulation and the rigid demand replenishment of some polyester factories, the short - term basis of PTA is still strong, but there is an expectation of decline. Affected by the strong oil prices and the tight supply - demand of PX, PTA is expected to be supported strongly in the short - term. TA is expected to be strong in the short - term, pay attention to the pressure above 5000 yuan; look for reverse - spread opportunities above 200 for TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - demand structure of MEG in June is still good. Although the supply of Saudi goods is expected to increase, the arrival of North American goods is limited, so both implicit and explicit inventories are expected to decrease. However, short - term demand is weak, and with the restart of MEG plants such as those in Saudi - China, Hengli, and Henan Coal Industry, the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. Affected by the rising oil prices due to the Middle - East situation and the shutdown of some Iranian plants, MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 4600 yuan for EG09 in the short - term. - **Short - fiber**: The current supply - demand of short - fiber is generally weak. Due to the strong backwardation structure of PTA, the spot processing fee of short - fiber has been significantly compressed. Short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July. With low inventory in short - fiber factories and strong raw materials, the absolute price of short - fiber is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the processing fee is expected to be restored. The strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; focus on expanding the low - level PF processing fee on the futures market and pay attention to the implementation of production cuts later. - **Polyester Bottle - chips**: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. According to CCF, since the end of May, Sanfangxiang has shut down 1 million tons of polyester bottle - chip production capacity, and other major bottle - chip manufacturers also plan to cut production at the end of June and early July. The supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower end of the range [79]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price and Spread Changes**: On June 20, compared with June 18, Brent rose by $2.15 to $78.85, a 2.80% increase; WTI rose by $0.22 to $75.36, a 0.29% increase; SC rose by 15.50 yuan to 574.50 yuan, a 2.77% increase. Various spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also showed significant changes [51]. - **Month - to - Month Structure**: There are data on the month - to - month structures of USDL, Gasoil, WTI, Dubai, RBOB, etc., showing the price differences between different contract months [1][6][8]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On June 20, compared with June 18, MA2601, MA2509, and related spreads such as MA91 and the regional spreads of methanol all showed price and spread changes. For example, MA91 spread increased by 11 to 28, a 64.71% increase [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10% to 36.735%, methanol port inventory decreased by 10.09% to 58.6 million tons, and methanol social inventory decreased by 7.52% to 95.4%. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises also changed, with the upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate increasing by 3.06% to 77.44% [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of products such as Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed. For example, SH2509 decreased by 10 to 2288, a 0.4% decrease [57]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Caustic soda and PVC开工 rates, overseas quotations, export profits, and inventory data all showed changes. For example, the caustic soda industry开工 rate decreased by 2.6% to 85.7, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% to 35.5 million tons [57][58]. Styrene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as styrene in the spot and futures markets changed. For example, styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 to 8100, a 1.1% increase [62][63]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of domestic pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS changed, and inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also showed changes. For example, styrene's start - up rate increased by 2.1% to 73.8, and styrene port inventory decreased by 11.5% to 9.3 million tons [65]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and related spreads, as well as spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE changed. For example, L2601 rose by 37 to 7399, a 0.50% increase [68]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories, as well as the start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises, changed. For example, PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83% to 49.9 million tons, and PP装置开工率 increased by 2.1% to 78.6 [68]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of urea futures contracts, spot prices in different regions, and various spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1725, a 0.63% decrease [72]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and production enterprise order days changed. For example, domestic urea daily production decreased by 0.54% to 20.13 million tons, and domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49% to 113.60 million tons [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester industry chain, as well as various spreads and processing fees changed. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 10 to 7130, a 0.1% decrease [79]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as MEG inventory and arrival expectations, changed. For example, PTA开工率 increased by 2.9% to 82.6, and MEG port inventory decreased by 2.8% to 61.6 million tons [79].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various asset classes that may withstand current global market pressures and geopolitical tensions, highlighting their potential for resilience and growth in uncertain times [2][3]. Group 1: Gold - Gold is characterized as a timeless safe-haven asset with a weak correlation to stocks and bonds, demonstrating strong risk-averse qualities during "black swan" events [6]. - Recent geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions have shifted market sentiment towards conservative and safe investments, increasing the appeal of gold [6]. - The investment logic for gold has evolved; previously, gold prices were inversely related to U.S. Treasury yields, but now, due to challenges to the "dollar hegemony," global demand for gold has surged, pushing prices higher [9]. - Investors are advised to adopt a strategic approach to gold investment, considering potential price corrections while gradually accumulating positions [9]. Group 2: Oil - Oil prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial market conditions, making it a critical industrial commodity [11][12]. - Historical analysis shows that geopolitical conflicts tend to boost oil prices in the short term, especially when they affect major oil-producing countries or transportation routes [13]. - Long-term oil price trends will still depend on supply-demand balance, and a stabilization of geopolitical tensions could lead to price corrections [13]. Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is seen as a direct beneficiary of geopolitical conflicts, with its investment logic evolving beyond traditional safe-haven assets to include event-driven and long-term growth potential [15]. - Key factors driving military industry investments include national defense being a non-cyclical expenditure, technological spillover into civilian sectors, and the reshaping of global dynamics due to U.S.-China competition [15][16]. - The military sector is characterized by high volatility, necessitating careful consideration of order fulfillment and valuation when investing [16]. Group 4: Equity Class - Dividend-paying stocks are positioned as stabilizers in volatile market conditions, offering steady cash flows and strong profitability [18]. - The article highlights Hong Kong dividend stocks as particularly attractive, providing a combination of stable performance and sustainable dividends [18]. - Dividend assets are suggested as a solid long-term investment option, balancing risk and return in uncertain market environments [20].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating a slowdown in future rate cuts and anticipating "considerably high inflation" in the coming months, which led to the dollar index rising to 99 before closing at 98.89, up 0.05% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.397%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.952%, reflecting initial declines followed by increases [1] - Gold prices fell by 0.60% to $3368.49 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and tariff-driven inflation concerns stemming from Trump's aggressive tariff agenda [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after reaching above $3450, falling over 1% and hitting a low of $3370, indicating a likely continuation of downward adjustments towards the $3290 support level [3] - The market is currently focused on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the implications of Trump's tariffs, which are expected to influence gold price movements [3] - Oil prices saw a sharp increase of over 13% last Friday, surpassing $77, but subsequently fell back to around $73, with expectations of continued volatility unless geopolitical tensions escalate further [5] Group 3 - The oil market is primarily affected by the conflict with Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact nearly 20% of global oil transport [3] - OPEC+ is currently in a phase of accelerated production increases, contributing to supply pressures in the oil market, which may lead to significant selling pressure if conflicts ease [5] - The recommendation for trading strategies suggests focusing on short positions in the oil market, particularly in the $74-$74.50 range, anticipating a drop to $69.50-$70 [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3872.2 | 0.09% | 0.41% | 1.30% | 0.74% | -1.24% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 2092 | 2.65% | 1.16% | 0.80% | 40.31% | -7.31% | | | 上证50期货 | 2677.4 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 19, 2025, including power coal, energy - chemical products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][4][13][21][39][46] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis of power coal remained at - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy - Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis Charts**: There are basis charts for crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio chart of crude oil to asphalt, showing the relationship between spot prices and futures prices [5][6][8] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [9] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for multiple chemical products are provided, including natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. [9] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, with different values and trends [14] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month) and those of iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided [14] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [14] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [22] - **LME - related Data**: On June 18, 2025, data such as LME forward premiums/discounts, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss for non - ferrous metals are provided [29] 3.4.2 London Market - **Relevant Charts**: There are LME basis charts, Shanghai - London ratio charts, and import profit/loss charts for non - ferrous metals [31][32][33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [39] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for multiple agricultural products are provided, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. [37][39] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean 1/corn, soybean 2/corn, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, with different values and trends [47] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of multiple contracts (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [47]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake, regardless of the market conditions [1] - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, characterized by rapid price swings and a "super sweep" phenomenon, which is expected to continue [1][3] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, have not significantly influenced gold prices, which remain under pressure below the 3400 level [3] Group 2 - Current support for gold is precarious at the 3120 level, with potential downward movements targeting 3345-50, 3330, and 3300 if broken [5] - Resistance levels for gold are identified at 3385 and 3400, with a breakout above 3400 necessary for bullish momentum to continue [5] - Silver is expected to face resistance at 37.3, with further levels at 37.7 and 38.2 for short positions, while support is noted at 35.5 and 34.6 [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai gold and silver markets suggest a bearish outlook, with short positions recommended above 9000 for silver and specific resistance levels for gold at 795 and 800 [7] - The crude oil market is also experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical factors, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index shows signs of stabilization after a decline, with potential targets set at the 102 level if recent lows are not breached [12] - The S&P 500 futures are being held in short positions, with expectations of breaking the 5920 level, while caution is advised against unexpected market rallies [9][16]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak" [271]. Group 2: Core Views - The conflict between Israel and Iran remains undetermined, which may lead to the US joining the attack on Iran. The crude oil market is in a volatile situation, and the price increase on the 17th was accompanied by a rise in the monthly spread and a strong diesel crack spread. The chemical industry was driven by the rise in crude oil prices on the 18th, but there were also signs of negative feedback as downstream and terminal products did not follow the price increase strongly. The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating pattern with a focus on long - short configurations [2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - On June 18, the SC2508 contract closed at 552.7 yuan/barrel, up 5.3%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at 76.08 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44%. EIA data showed a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but a slight build - up in gasoline and diesel inventories. The refinery utilization rate decreased slightly. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East are driving oil price fluctuations. The oil price is expected to oscillate in a high - risk stage [7]. LPG - The cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. Asphalt - Due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation, asphalt has a geopolitical premium. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, high - sulfur fuel oil has a geopolitical premium. Overall, the supply is expected to increase and the demand to decrease, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its valuation is low. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [11]. Methanol - On June 18, the methanol futures price oscillated strongly. The situation in Iran provides short - term support. In 2024, China imported about 8 million tons of methanol from Iran, accounting for 60% of the total imports and about 8% of the total apparent consumption. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [19]. Urea - On June 18, the urea futures price closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. High supply continues, and the agricultural demand has not fully started. The industrial demand is weakening. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the overseas urea price has risen sharply, driving up the domestic price. It is expected that the urea futures price will oscillate strongly [20]. Ethylene Glycol - On June 18, the price of ethylene glycol increased. The inventory is low, and the cost has increased due to the rise in crude oil prices. The upward movement is driven by crude oil, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [15]. PX - On June 18, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 888.4 US dollars/ton. The supply and demand support has weakened, and the short - term trend depends on crude oil. Stimulated by the news of production cuts, it is short - term strong [12]. PTA - On June 18, the PTA spot price was 5205 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to follow crude oil in the short term, and the PTA - crude oil position is mainly compressed [12]. Short - Fiber - The fundamentals of PF are showing marginal improvement signs. The supply pressure has decreased due to production cuts. The processing fee has limited compression space. The export growth rate in 2025 is considerable [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - On June 18, the spot processing fee was compressed to an extremely low value. More production cuts are expected to occur, and it is possible to gradually arrange long positions for the processing fee [18]. PP - On June 18, the PP futures price oscillated strongly. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the supply is increasing. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. Plastic - On June 18, the LLDPE futures price oscillated strongly. It is affected by crude oil prices, and its own fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. Styrene - On June 18, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7950 yuan/ton. The rebound driver is not sustainable, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [11][14]. PVC - The macro - level conflict between Israel and Iran has boosted PVC, but the fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity releases, off - season demand, and weak export expectations. The dynamic cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [28]. Caustic Soda - In June, the supply and demand of caustic soda were both weak, and it is expected to be weak in July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is based on the production cost. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract [29]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spread - The report provides inter - period spread data for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc., including the latest values and change values [30]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - It presents basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values, change values, and the number of warehouse receipts [31]. Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spread data, including the latest values and change values, are given for different combinations of products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the oil market and the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, on commodity prices, alongside the implications of U.S. monetary policy and economic indicators. Group 1: Oil Market - The SC night market saw an increase of 3.52% in oil prices, driven by ongoing military conflicts between Israel and Iran, with no signs of de-escalation [2][10] - U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 823.231 million barrels, a decrease of 11.243 million barrels from the previous week, while commercial crude oil inventories reached 420.942 million barrels, the lowest since January [2][10] Group 2: Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts within the year, but the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell led to a decline in gold prices [3][16] - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has raised concerns about further geopolitical risks, which may support gold prices in the long term despite short-term fluctuations [3][16] Group 3: Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Chinese central bank announcing eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, which had a muted market reaction [4][8] - The financing balance increased by 5.271 billion yuan to 1.81532 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for long-term capital allocation in the stock market [4][8] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 245,000, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable labor market [2][10] - The Federal Reserve's stance on inflation suggests that tariffs may lead to persistent inflationary pressures, with expectations of rising inflation in the coming months [5]

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