Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing significant volatility due to a combination of "hawkish monetary policy" and "geopolitical uncertainty," leading to a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while the stock market faces downward pressure [1] Oil - Oil prices have surged due to concerns over supply disruptions from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with WTI crude oil rising nearly 4% to above $93 and Brent crude oil surpassing $101 [1] - The hope for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict is fading, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing military options against Iran, which could include ground troops and large-scale airstrikes [12] Precious Metals - Precious metals are under pressure, with COMEX gold dropping over 3% to below $4400 and silver falling by 6%, primarily due to declining interest rate expectations and tightening liquidity [2][18] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to rising geopolitical risks and increasing central bank gold reserves [2][18] Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have retreated, with significant declines in technology stocks, while coal and oil sectors have shown strength [3][10] - The market is transitioning from "trading on expectations" to "focusing on earnings reports," with high-valuation growth stocks facing pressure from rising interest rates [3][10] Industry News - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a revenue of $9.327 billion for 2025, a 16.2% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 39% to $685 million [8] Financial Market Trends - The financing balance increased by 3.16 billion yuan to 25.996 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [3][10] - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Fed signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [3][10] Commodities - The energy sector, particularly methanol and asphalt, is leading gains due to cost-driven factors, while black commodities and some agricultural products are showing relative weakness [1][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's short - term outlook for the negotiation between the US and Iran is not optimistic, and risk appetite has significantly declined. A - share trading volume has shrunk, and risky assets are still under pressure. The bond market may weaken in the short term. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1][3][13][17][19] - The dollar index is expected to rise in the short term. For stock index futures, it is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see. For bond futures, short - term operations should be fast - in and fast - out, closely following the war situation. For various commodities, different investment suggestions are provided according to their respective fundamentals [14][18][20] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims met market expectations. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities to April 6th, and the market's short - term expectation for the negotiation agreement has decreased, leading to a weakening of risk appetite. The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [11][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Trump will visit China in mid - May. A - share trading volume has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index rebound is blocked. The US - Iran situation remains deadlocked, and risky assets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see [15][17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the war continues, high oil prices and inflation are the core negative factors for the bond market. The bond market may weaken in the short term, and strategies should be fast - in and fast - out [19][20] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 483,900 tons week - on - week. In mid - March, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand for finished products is average, and the market expectation is unstable. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [21][22][25] 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market is stable. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented. In the short term, the coking coal futures price is supported, but in the long term, the price increase is restricted. It is necessary to track the resumption of iron - making production, terminal demand, and coal mine resumption progress [26][27] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased week - on - week, and imports from January to February increased significantly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [28][29][31] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The long - term over - capacity problem in the pig market persists. In the short term, the spot price is under pressure. For the near - month contract, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for the far - month contract, it is recommended to wait and see [32] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The joint mining plan of Codelco and Anglo American has been approved. The macro and fundamental negative factors for copper are weakening. It is expected that the copper price will continue to build a bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [33][36] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, wait and see for palladium, and pay attention to the long - platinum short - palladium opportunity in the medium term [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production due to an earthquake. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased. The lead price may continue to build a bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line buying opportunity at low prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased. Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production, and the zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to manage positions well when going long, and wait and see for arbitrage [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yahua Group signed a purchase agreement. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [45][47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and LME tin inventories changed. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the main contradiction is the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [49][50][51] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory decreased. The urea futures price rebounded, but the upper limit of the 05 contract is restricted. It is recommended to purchase according to rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [52][53] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Jiangsu Sierbang's MTO device restarted, which is beneficial to the methanol futures price. It is recommended to take a bullish view and buy on dips [54] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price declined slightly. The supply may decrease, and the cost has increased. The market may continue the situation of supply contraction and cost support [55][56] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand is stable. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda has increased. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally, but the increase space may be restricted [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased. The market is worried about short - term supply, and the Asian low - sulfur market may be in short supply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory changed little. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The industry is in a situation of high supply and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the energy price inflection point [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass decreased slightly. The supply pressure has decreased, but the demand is average, and the mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The glass futures price may have limited rebound [66] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's foreign - trade container throughput increased in the first two months. The spot price is under pressure, and the near - month contract is returning to the spot logic. The far - month contract is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a shock strategy and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost support weakens, and the futures prices fall from high levels. The impact of geopolitical conflicts weakens, but there are still expectations of coking coal warehouse - receipt pressure, causing coal - coke prices to decline from high levels. Iron ore prices fluctuate at high levels due to repeated disturbances on the supply side. Alloys lack fundamental highlights, and their futures prices loosen at high levels. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. Under the weakening of cost support, the futures market adjusts weakly. There may be repeated disturbances on the cost side in the later stage, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upper - limit valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue in a weak - balance state, expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the long - process demand recovers slowly. The fundamentals continue in a weak - balance pattern, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the actual recovery progress of terminal demand in the future [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both the supply and demand of coke increase. The resumption speed of hot metal production may be faster, and the spot cost price continues to rise. The expectation of spot price increase for coke is strong, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [12]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove for the time being. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer of manganese silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk for the valuation level of the futures market higher than the cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the fluctuations in manganese ore prices and the changes in manufacturers' production levels [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties in the future is difficult to disprove for the time being. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, gradually shifting the supply - demand relationship to a loose state. In the medium - to - long term, when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers, there is still a callback risk. It is necessary to pay attention to the adjustment range of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas and the resumption of production trends of manufacturers [18]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory in the middle and downstream is moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot continue to improve, the high inventory will always suppress prices [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The glass melting volume is stable, the supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [15]. 3.5 Steel - The cost support weakens, and the futures performance is weak. The spot trading volume is average. The steel mill profitability rate increases month - on - month, and hot metal production resumes. The downstream gradually resumes work, and the rigid demand and restocking demand are slowly released. The steel inventory continues to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the fundamentals have limited highlights. The futures price adjusts weakly, but there may be repeated disturbances on the cost side. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [8].

Summary of Hualing Steel Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hualing Steel - **Industry**: Steel Manufacturing Key Points Financial Performance - In 2025, the company faced a one-time tax payment of approximately 650 million yuan, which was fully absorbed by the end of December, indicating no ongoing impact on future profits. After excluding this effect, the annual net profit attributable to shareholders increased year-on-year [2][4] - The company plans to release its annual report after the market closes on March 30, 2026 [4] Industry Conditions - The steel industry is currently experiencing pressure with steel prices remaining flat while raw material costs are rising. The steel price index fell by about 3% year-on-year, while iron ore prices increased by 6% and coking coal prices rose by 16% [3] - Demand in the downstream sectors is weak, with only the shipbuilding and engineering machinery sectors showing signs of recovery. The household appliance sector is stable but faces future demand pressures [3] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to see a decline in capital expenditures following the completion of its ultra-low emission transformation project by the end of 2025, which previously required over 2 billion yuan annually. This reduction will enhance the ability to increase cash dividends [5] - The company is committed to steadily increasing shareholder returns, with plans for dividends in 2026 already established [5] Raw Material Costs - The company employs a low inventory strategy for raw material procurement to minimize capital occupation. Cost reduction is achieved through channel expansion, competitive pricing, and optimizing transportation [6] - Iron ore supply is expected to peak in 2026, with significant projects like the Simandou and S11D expected to lower price levels, although there may be short-term fluctuations [6][7] Strategic Partnerships - Hualing Steel is deepening its cooperation with FMG, focusing on sales to meet the demand for steel structures and related materials in Australia. This partnership will enhance procurement efficiency and pricing advantages [8] VAMA Project and Product Development - VAMA's operations are stable, with a focus on patented hot-formed products. The company has introduced new steel grades and is working on a third-phase project that is expected to be ready for decision-making in the first half of 2026 [9][10] - The ship plate business is thriving, with production exceeding 2 million tons, representing nearly one-third of the company's product structure [10] Silicon Steel Business - The silicon steel segment has turned profitable in 2025, with a total capacity of 500,000 tons. The company aims to fully utilize this capacity in 2026 without immediate expansion plans [11][12] - The company has successfully developed high-end products and is working on expanding its market presence in the electric vehicle sector [11] Market Performance of Steel Products - The market for thin plates is under pressure, with cold-rolled products performing better than ordinary hot-rolled products. The engineering machinery and shipbuilding sectors remain strong, while other areas face challenges [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for hot - rolled coils is "oscillating slightly stronger", while the medium - term rating requires further tracking of manufacturing demand recovery and steel mill resumption of production [7] Core Viewpoints - Hot - rolled coils showed an oscillating and slightly weaker trend on Thursday. Affected by the short - term weakness of raw materials, the lower support is near the 60 - day moving average. The medium - term is strengthening in terms of moving averages, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous pressure platform. This week, hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand and continuous inventory reduction. In the short term, hot - rolled coils are mainly oscillating and slightly stronger. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of manufacturing demand and the resumption of production of steel mills. If demand continues to pick up and production is controlled, hot - rolled coils are expected to start a trend - based rebound; if demand is weak and the resumption of production accelerates, the price will maintain an oscillating pattern [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was reduced by 40,839 lots, with a trading volume of 214,049 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it short - term broke below the 5 - day moving average near 3,313, was at the 30 - day moving average of 3,257 in the medium term, and was running above the medium - term pressure of the 60 - day moving average near 3,273 [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 15 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 3.0561 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,000 tons. The production resumed slightly, and the willingness of steel mills to resume production increased marginally. If the price of hot - rolled coils continues to rebound and the profits of steel mills are further repaired, the output may continue to rise; if the demand falls short of expectations, steel mills are likely to tighten production again, and the output is unlikely to increase significantly [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 3.1363 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,200 tons. The demand recovered week - on - week, and the terminal procurement improved to some extent. However, the increase was weaker than the output, indicating that the demand repair was still insufficient. If the production and sales data of industries such as automobiles and home appliances are good, the apparent demand is expected to further rebound; if the overseas demand is weak and the domestic manufacturing start - up is lower than expected, the demand repair will be hindered [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 3.6942 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons. The inventory of steel mills was 838,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,100 tons. The total inventory was 4.5327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80,200 tons. The overall inventory pressure was marginally relieved [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, which boosted market confidence in the medium and long term. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the downstream orders have not improved substantially. It will take time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it is difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The total inventory is continuously decreasing, the de - stocking rhythm of social inventory is accelerating, the apparent demand is recovering week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil price has bottom support. The manufacturing demand has stronger resilience than construction steel and has fundamental support in the long term [6] - Bearish factors: The output has increased slightly, the supply side has expanded marginally, the demand repair amplitude is weaker than the output, the supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of rebar, and the total inventory is still at a high level, restricting the price rebound height [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has shown slight improvement, with macroeconomic and fiscal data indicating marginal recovery, leading to a mixed valuation structure across different sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Assessment - The Zhongtai Asset Management risk system score for the CSI 300 index is 53.98, up from 50.78 last month, indicating a slight recovery in market expectations and sentiment [2]. - The CSI 300 valuation remains stable at 61.71, consistent with the reasonable range observed over the past year, with significant valuation differentiation among sectors [2]. - The market expectation score has increased to 62.00 from 60.00, reflecting improved fiscal revenue and expenditure dynamics [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Among the 28 first-level industries, 12 sectors, including chemicals, steel, and electronics, have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, while food and beverage, and non-bank financial sectors are below the historical 10th percentile [2]. - The market sentiment score has risen to 42.25 from 35.21, indicating a recovery from low levels to a neutral stance, with mixed performance across various indicators [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - In the first two months of 2026, industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment increased by 1.8%, contrasting with a decline of 3.8% for the previous year [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in nearly three years, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown positive month-on-month growth for five consecutive months [8]. Group 4: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to ensure liquidity remains ample, with a notable shift towards more precise operations [10][11]. - The total social financing scale for February was 2.39 trillion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 9.6 trillion yuan in the first two months, indicating improved cash flow and funding activation [10].

Group 1 - The current market has reached a phase bottom, with limited downside potential, emphasizing the importance of structural positioning and allocation direction [1] - From a price perspective, many strong-performing sectors have retreated to the 3800-4000 point range of the Shanghai Composite Index, while sectors benefiting from energy prices and stable low volatility have seen smaller declines [3] - In terms of valuation, technology manufacturing remains relatively high, while cyclical products have significantly dropped to historically low levels [3] Group 2 - The focus should be on sectors with low valuations and strong profitability, such as food and beverage, home appliances, non-bank financials, agriculture, and basic chemicals [7] - The PEG perspective highlights sectors with cheap valuations (PE below 50% historical percentile) and stable earnings growth (net profit growth forecast above 20% for 2026), including non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals [4] - For sectors with high valuations but expected high growth, attention should be on new energy and electronics [4] Group 3 - Tesla's Optimus robot is entering a "school age," with formal mass production expected around mid-year, following a clear timeline for core component deliveries [6] - The production approval process (PPA) for suppliers is aligning with mass production timelines, indicating a shift from experimental prototypes to industrial-scale production [6] - Recent advancements in design and materials for the Optimus robot suggest readiness for complex operational deployment, with significant market sentiment shifts anticipated due to supportive policies for intelligent robotics [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to have a narrow - range shock. The cost support for steel has weakened due to the decline in iron ore and coking coal prices, and the weak demand, especially in the real estate sector, keeps the inventory at a relatively high level, suppressing steel prices [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to continue a high - level shock. The supply shows a mixed trend with increasing Australian shipments and slightly decreasing Brazilian shipments, and the demand is affected by the resumption of production of steel mills. Geopolitical factors also influence the cost [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate in a shock. For coking coal, the supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the cost and the price increase of coke. For coke, the supply and demand are both improving, but macro - disturbances are complex [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to maintain a shock trend. For manganese silicon, the cost has support, and the supply and demand are in a state of change. For silicon iron, the production profit has recovered, but the upward driving force is limited [1][3]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 56,200 lots in positions. The spot price slightly decreased, and the transaction volume declined. The cost support weakened, and the demand was weak, so it is expected to have a narrow - range shock [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 806.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous trading day, with 380,000 lots in trading volume and a decrease of 32,000 lots in positions. The supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is expected to continue a high - level shock [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 8252 lots in positions. The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by cost and price increase, so it is expected to operate in a shock [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 2550 lots in positions. The supply and demand are both improving, but macro - disturbances are complex, so it is expected to operate in a shock [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 6492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 14,171 lots in positions. The cost has support, and the supply and demand are in a state of change, so it is expected to have a firm shock [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The main contract of silicon iron closed at 6088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 3247 lots in positions. The production profit has recovered, but the upward driving force is limited, so it is expected to maintain a shock trend [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 5 - 10 month spreads for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are - 30.0, - 9.0, 29.0, - 88.5, - 136.5, - 68.0, - 78.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 2.0, - 2.0, - 4.5, - 13.0, - 14.5, - 8.0, 2.0 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 05 contract for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are 98.0, - 23.0, 25.8, - 121.4, 17.0, - 342.0, - 388.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.0, 1.0, 2.1, 11.1, 8.5, - 62.0, - 38.0 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou are 3230.0, 3160.0, 3450.0 respectively, with changes of - 10.0, - 10.0, 0.0. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou are 3290.0, 3290.0, 3320.0 respectively, with changes of - 10.0, 0.0, 0.0 [3]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar disk profit is - 129.7, with a change of 26.9. The long - process profit is - 5.9, with a change of 15.1. The short - process profit is - 118.9, with a change of - 7.0. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread is 181.0, with a change of 2.0. The rebar to iron ore ratio is 3.9, with a change of 0.07. The rebar to coke ratio is 1.8, with a change of 0.01. The coking coal to iron ore ratio is 2.2, with a change of 0.02. The double - silicon spread is 404.0, with a change of 22.0 [3]. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [5][6][8][12]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [15][16][19][21]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [24][25][28][29][31][33][35]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the inter - variety contract spreads such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, coking coal to iron ore ratio, coking coal to coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [36][37][38][39]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract [41][44]. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [46]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures field [46]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [46]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict situation remains unclear, and investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertainty and volatility, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the recurrence of the geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomics - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to affect the financial market. The US has proposed a 15 - point plan to Iran for a comprehensive cease - fire, but Iran has not clearly responded, and the negotiation may still be in the intermediary - matchmaking stage. The probability of the tail risk of further deterioration of the situation has slightly decreased [1]. Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan"纲要 has adjusted the target of the added value of the core industries of the digital economy, added indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy, and improved relevant systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and the external demand remains resilient [1]. Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. Market Conditions of Various Sectors Financial Sector - Stock index futures continue to rebound, but the divergence between long and short positions intensifies; stock index options' implied volatility continues to decline, and the term structure improves; bond markets fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiation. Gold and silver show a trend of oscillating strongly in the short term due to the US releasing peace - negotiation signals [4]. Shipping Sector - The spot market of container shipping on the European line has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month [4]. Black Building Materials Sector - The cost support of steel and iron ore has loosened, and the disk performance is under pressure; the cost of coke continues to rise, and the expectation of price increase is strong; the auction of coking coal continues to rise, and the disk fluctuates at a high level; the energy valuation of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon has bottomed out and rebounded [4]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - The pessimistic sentiment has eased, and the basic metals have stopped falling and oscillated. The prices of aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel show a trend of oscillating strongly [4]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains deadlocked, and the energy and chemical products continue to oscillate at a high level. The prices of various products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are in an oscillating state [5]. Agricultural Sector - There is a co - existence of weak reality and strong expectation. The double - meal market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The prices of various agricultural products such as grains, livestock, and rubber are mostly in an oscillating state [5]. Market Fluctuation Data Financial Market - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates are presented. For example, the daily increase of CSI 300 futures is 1.6%, and the weekly decrease is 0.81% [7]. Industry Index - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of various industry indexes are shown. For example, the daily increase of the non - ferrous metals industry index is 3.01%, and the monthly decrease is 18.55% [8][9]. Overseas Commodities - On March 24, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are presented. For example, the daily increase of NYMEX WTI crude oil is 0.3%, and the weekly decrease is 9.89% [10][11]. Domestic Main Commodities - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of domestic shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemical products, and agricultural products are shown. For example, the daily decrease of container shipping on the European line is 2.78%, and the monthly increase is 51.86% [12][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the TACO landed this week, the short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, but there is a possibility of situation downgrade in the medium - term. The current game pattern of fighting and talking has limited the upper limit of the full - scale escalation of the conflict, and the ground war is still in a vague state. The extreme pressure situation will continue in the short - term. The secondary inflation risk brought by the oil price shock is reversing the global liquidity expectation. The Fed's policy path has shifted from the initial interest - rate cut convergence to tightening divergence. The domestic A - shares are in the risk - release stage of peripheral risk transmission in the short - term, and the core investment strategy should be defensive counter - attack [2]. - In the short - term, the RMB exchange rate is expected to follow the US dollar index for synchronous fluctuations, and there is no clear directional trend. Export enterprises can lock in forward foreign exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark [3]. - The short - term trend of the stock index is expected to be volatile, and the trading power of treasury bonds is insufficient. For the shipping index (European line) futures, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term [5][6][10]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are also in a wide - range fluctuation state [13][15]. - In the aluminum market, the core contradiction lies in the game between the "overseas supply contraction expectation" and the "domestic high - inventory reality". Copper's pressure level has moved up, zinc is mainly volatile, nickel - stainless steel is strong, tin's trend conversion is uncertain, and lead's overall trend is consistent with the sector [20][23][25][27][28][29]. - For oilseeds, hold the reverse spread between months. For oils and fats, the short - term trend is weak following the crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation [30][31]. - For energy and oil and gas, it is too early to trade the end of the conflict in the short - term. For fuel oil, wait patiently for short - selling opportunities, and for asphalt, wait for short - selling opportunities at the absolute price [35][36][38]. - For precious metals, maintain a strategic long - term bullish view, and regard the callback as an opportunity for medium - and long - term long - position layout [42][44]. - For pulp - offset paper, pulp can be traded in the range or wait and see in the short - term, and offset printing paper can try the high - short strategy. For pure benzene - styrene, they are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. For LPG, it is in a neutral and volatile state, and the positive spread strategy can be adopted at low prices. For PP - propylene and plastics, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For rubber, synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range fluctuation, and natural rubber is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [46][48][51][54][56][62][63]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash supply pressure persists, and glass is restricted by supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory [66][67]. - For black products, the short - term furnace charge is strong and volatile, driving the rebound of steel prices, but the rebound height is limited. Iron ore is event - driven, coking coal follows the energy expectation, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support [70][71][73][74]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, sell the call options of the main hog contract, cotton runs in the range, sugar is expected to be volatile in the short - term, sell the call options of the main egg contract, apples are in high - level adjustment, peanuts can be lightly short - sold, red dates are in a low - level volatile bottom - building state, and logs can be traded in the range [76][78][80][82][89][91][94][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The pricing of the global central bank's tightening transaction is approaching saturation. The short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, and the secondary inflation risk brought by the oil price shock is reversing the global liquidity expectation [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate follows the US dollar index for synchronous fluctuations. Export enterprises can lock in forward foreign exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark [3]. - **Stock Index**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is difficult to form a trend - like rise [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The trading power is insufficient, and the short - term grid operation idea can be maintained [6]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term, and the market focus is shifting from geopolitical risk premium to supply - demand fundamentals [7][8][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term value support from the industry fundamentals is still stable [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a wide - range fluctuation state, and the core contradiction is the imbalance between supply and demand [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The core contradiction lies in the game between the "overseas supply contraction expectation" and the "domestic high - inventory reality", and the internal and external markets show a differentiated and volatile pattern [17][18][19][20]. - **Copper**: The pressure level has moved up, and investors can consider selling options to protect existing positions [21][23]. - **Zinc**: It is mainly volatile, and interval operation can be tried [24][25]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The intraday trend is strong, and the new Indonesian policy may support the price [26][27]. - **Tin**: The trend conversion is uncertain, and it should be regarded as volatile in the short - term [28]. - **Lead**: The overall trend is consistent with the sector, and it is mainly volatile with interval operation [29]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: Hold the reverse spread between months. Pay attention to the Brazilian shipment and port clearance progress [30]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is weak following the crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation [31]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: It is too early to trade the end of the conflict in the short - term, as there are differences in the conditions between the US and Iran [33][34][35]. - **Fuel Oil**: Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities, and the medium - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is still in a tight - balance state [36]. - **Asphalt**: The cracking may be strong, and wait for short - selling opportunities at the absolute price. Pay attention to position control [38]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a weak and volatile state. Maintain a strategic long - term bullish view and pay attention to position control [40][41][42]. - **Gold & Silver**: They maintain a volatile state. Maintain a strategic long - term bullish view, and the short - term rebound may be limited [43][44]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp can be traded in the range or wait and see in the short - term, and offset printing paper can try the high - short strategy [46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply reduction caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [47][48]. - **LPG**: It is in a neutral and volatile state, and the positive spread strategy can be adopted at low prices. Pay attention to the US - Iran negotiation and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz [49][50][51]. - **PP - Propylene**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the short - term supply reduction provides fundamental support [52][53][54]. - **Plastics**: It is in a short - term weak and volatile state, and the short - term supply is expected to remain at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range fluctuation, and natural rubber is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment. Different strategies can be adopted for different types of rubber [57][62][63][64]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash supply pressure persists, and glass is restricted by supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory [65][66][67]. Black Products - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term furnace charge is strong and volatile, driving the rebound of steel prices, but the rebound height is limited [68][69][70]. - **Iron Ore**: It is event - driven, with a "near - strong and far - weak" fundamental characteristic [71]. - **Coking Coal**: It follows the energy supply expectation and fluctuates widely, and its price is difficult to rise independently from the fundamentals [72][73]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They have cost support, and attention should be paid to the impact of the hurricane on the manganese ore production area [73][74]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The price is in a low - level volatile state, and sell the call options of the main contract [76]. - **Cotton**: It runs in the range. Pay attention to the USDA's new - year planting intention report and the downstream demand [77][78]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, considering the geopolitical situation and market sentiment [79][80]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a wide - range volatile state, and sell the call options of the main contract [81][82]. - **Apples**: They are in high - level adjustment, and the 05 contract is strongly supported in the short - term [89][90]. - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to continue to correct, and light short - selling can be considered [91][92][93]. - **Red Dates**: They are in a low - level volatile bottom - building state, and the price is under pressure due to the loose supply and demand [94]. - **Logs**: The price of 3 - meter timber has risen, and the futures price has bottom support. It can be traded in the range [95][96].