Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, driven by top - level policies and financial policies, with significant inflow of incremental funds and strong economic resilience [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, in a policy window period. There may be more incremental policies in the second half of the year, and external risks are gradually easing. The stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating and structural differentiation exists [2][11]. - Precious metals may show an oscillating trend under the warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with long - term drivers still providing support for gold [3][19]. - The trend of crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC production increase situation, and the unemployment rate in the US may rise in August [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fluctuated slightly. The previous trading day saw an increase in the stock index, with the communication sector leading the rise and the real - estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.81 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan on August 15. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Although there are factors supporting the price, the current high price makes gold hesitant to rise, and gold and silver may oscillate [3][19]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose 0.7%. The US - Russia talks over the weekend had no clear conclusion. The unemployment rate in the US may rise to 4.3% in August, and attention should be paid to OPEC production increase [4][13]. b. Main News of the Day - **International News**: US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House, and a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be held. Trump also said he would not rule out sending US troops to participate in peace - keeping missions in Ukraine [5]. - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the real - estate market [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including starting to formulate the DRG 3.0 grouping plan, improving the maternity insurance system, and exploring national unified follow - up procurement after the expiration of the centralized procurement agreement [7]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key varieties part, the market is in a favorable period, but sector rotation and differentiation need attention [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.778%. The bond market may continue to be under pressure, and the price difference between new and old bonds and long - and short - term bonds may widen [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: As mentioned before, pay attention to OPEC production increase and the US unemployment rate [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading fell 1.04%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory continued to accumulate. It is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Rubber**: The price support mainly comes from the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the price may oscillate and fall [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures were weak. The market is still mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory digestion is slow. Pay attention to the autumn restocking market and cost changes [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures are in the process of inventory digestion. The prices have stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: As described above, affected by inflation data and other factors, it shows an oscillating trend [3][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to US tariffs and other factors [20][21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as US tariffs and supply - demand [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, demand is also growing, and inventory is in a complex state. There is a risk of correction after the previous rise, and short - selling should be cautious [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected to rise in the second half of the year, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The market is under pressure, and the multi - empty game is intensifying [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The US Department of Agriculture adjusted the soybean production forecast, and the soybean futures inventory is tightening. The price of the domestic protein meal has strong support [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bullish impact on the market. Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is expected to be oscillating and bearish, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, and is expected to be oscillating [30]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose. The domestic cotton market supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend may be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated slightly. The SCFIS European line price decreased. The market is concerned about the off - season freight rate decline rate and the support of deep discounts [32][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is supported by policies, and the overall direction is to go long on dips, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [7]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and macro - environment, showing different trends and investment opportunities [10][11][12] etc. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - News: Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market, A - share market value exceeds 100 trillion yuan, some companies may apply for suspension, and there is a peak in online consultations at securities brokerages [2]. - Futures basis ratio: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods. The market may be volatile in the short - term but the general idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. There are events such as the stock market reaching a 10 - year high, treasury cash management deposit bidding, and international meetings [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be volatile in the short - term due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices show different trends. Geopolitical risks and Fed's policy are important factors affecting prices. It is recommended to wait for Powell's speech and then make decisions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Copper prices are oscillating due to factors such as the rebound of the US dollar index and increased domestic inventory. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for macro - drivers [10]. Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices are falling due to the expansion of the US steel - aluminum tax scope and domestic inventory accumulation. The price may be adjusted in the short - term [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices face a large downward risk due to factors such as increased domestic social inventory and weak downstream consumption [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to the weak supply - demand situation in the industry and the increase in social inventory [13]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices are under pressure to correct in the short - term but have support in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on significant dips [15]. Tin - Market: Tin prices are expected to oscillate as supply is tight in the short - term and demand is weak, but the situation may change with the resumption of production in Myanmar [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: Lithium prices are likely to rise due to the approaching traditional peak season and improved supply - demand expectations. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [17]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices are falling. It is recommended to short on rallies due to the over - capacity situation [19]. Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term due to factors such as price resistance and weak demand [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market: Casting aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance due to the off - season and large futures - spot price difference [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Steel prices are oscillating weakly. The demand for rebar is weak and the inventory is increasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is improving but the inventory is still rising. The market may return to the supply - demand logic if the demand cannot be repaired [23][24]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices are slightly adjusted. The supply is increasing and the demand is slightly rising, but the terminal demand is weakening [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. The price may rise if there are real estate policies, otherwise, supply contraction is needed [27][28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and the price center may rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may weaken in the future [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand [33][34]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely. The increase in warehouse receipts and the uncertainty of capacity integration are new concerns [35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: Rubber prices are oscillating. The market has different views on the rise and fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [37][39]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil has the potential to rise but the upward space is limited in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40]. Methanol - Market: Methanol supply pressure is large, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - Market: Urea supply is loose, demand is general, and the price is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [42]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices may rise with the cost side due to factors such as the repair of BZN spread and the reduction of port inventory [43]. PVC - Market: PVC has a strong supply - weak demand and high - valuation situation. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the short - term valuation may decline [46]. PTA - Market: PTA is expected to accumulate inventory, and the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX in the peak season [47]. Para - xylene - Market: PX is expected to reduce inventory, and the valuation has support below but limited upward space. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the peak season [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices may follow crude oil to oscillate strongly in July under the background of weak supply - demand [51]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices are stable. The market may oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the medium - term [53]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices are mostly stable. The supply is large, and the price may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound in the medium - term [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: Soybean meal prices are affected by factors such as US soybean production and import costs. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [55][56]. Fats and Oils - Market: Fats and oils prices are oscillating strongly. The price is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the low inventory in Southeast Asia, but the upward space is limited [57][58]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices are expected to decline due to the increase in international and domestic supply [59]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to factors such as the USDA report and the suspension of tariffs, but the downstream consumption is general [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, global risk aversion has decreased, and the US dollar has rebounded. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations, but policy stimulus expectations have increased, and domestic risk appetite has generally risen [2]. - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. Among the commodity sectors, the black sector has increased short - term volatility, the non - ferrous sector is expected to fluctuate and it is advisable to be cautiously long, the energy and chemical sector is expected to fluctuate weakly, and precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, all of which require cautious observation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, the US retail sales in July increased as expected, and the market has reduced expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier proposed to stimulate consumption potential and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended by 90 days, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties and increasing domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, film and television theaters, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Although China's economic data in July was weak, policy stimulus expectations have increased, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short - term, it is advisable to watch cautiously [2]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have declined slightly. The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariff collection, and the real demand has weakened. The inventory of five major steel products has increased, and the supply of rebar is relatively low while the supply of plates is relatively stable. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have continued to decline slightly. Although the steel mill profits are high in the short - term, the iron water production is expected to decrease as important events approach. The supply has increased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The iron ore price may weaken periodically later [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and that of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The market performance is good, and the manufacturers' enthusiasm for production is high. The manganese ore price is firm. The iron alloy price is expected to be weak - oscillating in the short - term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply has increased, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The price upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply is stable, the demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the profit has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered later [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of the US - Russia negotiation. The copper mine supply is increasing, and the domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has declined due to US tariff measures. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has increased and then stabilized. The medium - term upside is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening rebound basis [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the production cost has increased, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - side开工率 has slightly declined, the mine end is expected to become looser, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the upside is restricted [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has reached a new high. Due to the suspension of a mine, the supply is short - term favorable, and the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon has declined slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon has risen. The warehouse receipt pressure has increased. Pay attention to the progress of the photovoltaic enterprise symposium organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Ukraine meeting has dampened the expectation of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market is uncertain, and the oil price has been fluctuating in a narrow range [14]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical uncertainties, asphalt has followed the decline in crude oil prices. The asphalt market is still weak in the peak season, and it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near future [14]. - **PX**: The decline in crude oil prices has led to a correction in the energy and chemical sector. PX is still in a tight supply situation in the short - term and is expected to oscillate [14]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand has rebounded slightly, the processing margin is low, and the supply is restricted. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the factory inventory is still high. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders have increased slightly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies in the medium - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, and the port market is weak. The regional differentiation is obvious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - **PP**: The supply pressure has increased, and the downstream demand has increased slightly. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for peak - season stocking later [16][17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of a turn. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for demand and stocking [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is consolidating, waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop inspection. The US soybean growth indicators are good [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has been relieved. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed is limited. Pay attention to the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in the near - month contracts [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil inventory at ports is decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter [20]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil inventory has increased. The Indonesian and Indian inventories are low, the export has improved, and the price is expected to run strongly [20]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn is weak, the market trading is inactive, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. The corn futures market is weak [21]. - **Pigs**: The spot hog price is weak, the supply has increased, and the price decline has narrowed. Pay attention to the performance of hog prices during the consumption peak in late August [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9] - For strategy, it is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different option varieties have different latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 489, with a price increase of 3 and a trading volume of 11.05 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various option varieties are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market trend [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various option varieties is provided, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility [7] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Types 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: The OPEC+ production increase cycle has ended, and Russia has announced production cuts. The market shows a short - term upward受阻 pattern. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: Supply is abundant, and the market is short - term bearish. It is recommended to construct a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Port inventory is rising, and the market is bearish. It is recommended to construct a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is expected to accumulate, and the market is in a wide - range volatile pattern. It is recommended to construct a short volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, Plastic, Styrene) - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation of PE and PP is different, and the market is weak. It is recommended to construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **PVC**: The market is in a certain trend, and specific strategies are not fully detailed in the summary [113] - **Plastic**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output - **Styrene**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: The tire industry's operating rate has changed, and the market is short - term weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip) - **PTA**: Social inventory is rising, and the market is in a weak consolidation pattern. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13] - **PX**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output - **Short - fiber**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output - **Bottle Chip**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: The capacity utilization rate has changed, and the market is in a rebound pattern. It is recommended to construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventory and social inventory are rising, and the market is in a consolidation pattern. It is recommended to construct a short volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.5.7 Other Options (Urea) - Urea: Port inventory is decreasing, and enterprise inventory is rising. The market is in a low - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to construct a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the A-share market has entered a new era with a total market value surpassing 100 trillion yuan, driven by government policies and market confidence [1] - The State Council's top-level deployment aims to consolidate the economic recovery, supported by a series of financial policies including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1] - Significant inflows of capital from public funds, private equity, insurance funds, and foreign investments indicate strong investor confidence in policy benefits and economic transformation [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the performance of major indices, noting that the US stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the communication sector leading gains and real estate lagging [2] - It mentions that the financing balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan, reaching 20,485.99 billion yuan, reflecting a continuation of loose domestic liquidity [2] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of sustained market performance, although sector rotation and structural differentiation are expected [2] Group 3 - The article reports that the US inflation data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on gold and silver prices, with the PPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year [3] - It notes that the US Treasury Secretary indicated a significant likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which could influence market expectations [3] - The overall market sentiment is affected by concerns over employment data and the economic outlook, leading to a potential for gold and silver prices to fluctuate [3] Group 4 - The article highlights that the SC night market for crude oil rose by 0.7%, while the US initial jobless claims decreased against a backdrop of low layoffs [4] - It emphasizes that domestic demand remains weak, which may push the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August [4] - The article suggests that traders are reducing bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to rising inflation concerns [4] Group 5 - The article outlines key domestic news, including the emphasis by Premier Li Qiang on enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations [6] - It discusses the need to stimulate consumption and promote effective investment, particularly in the real estate sector [6] - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced nine key tasks to improve healthcare financing, indicating a focus on healthcare reforms [7]

Macro Overview - In July, China's CPI and PPI data showed slight month-on-month improvement, while investment, consumption, exports, and credit data were weaker than expected. The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating continued expectations for policy easing [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high expectations for a rate cut in September, supporting overall market risk appetite [1] Steel and Construction Materials - The market is currently in a clear consumption off-season, with MySteel reporting a decrease in rebar production and demand, leading to an increase in both factory and social inventories for two consecutive weeks [1] - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.407 million tons, a slight increase of 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week, while the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased but remains relatively high [1] - As the consumption peak season approaches, production and apparent demand are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in inventories [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - For copper, global total inventory increased slightly by about 0.17 million tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 125.6 thousand tons, remaining low for the same period. The processing fee for copper concentrate rose to -37.67 USD/ton, indicating a slight easing in supply tightness [2] - The overall judgment indicates marginal improvement in fundamentals, with domestic inventory reduction supporting spot prices, but macro uncertainties remain, leading to price fluctuations in the range of 77,000 to 81,000 RMB/ton [2] Lithium Carbonate - With the suspension of mining by Yichun Times, lithium carbonate prices have strengthened, and there are expectations of long-term production halts for downstream smelting enterprises after depleting their rights and inventory mines [3] - In August, downstream production demand improved significantly, with lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.8% and ternary batteries by 9.2%, raising concerns about raw material stocking for September [3] - The overall judgment suggests that supply disruptions combined with demand improvements will maintain a strong price trend for lithium [3] Energy and Chemicals - The energy sector showed divergence, with international crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and chemicals experiencing wide fluctuations. The meeting between Trump and Putin did not result in agreements, but eased tensions, with no new sanctions on Russia expected in the short term [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, indicating a global oil surplus. The IEA report predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market by 2026, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weak fluctuations, primarily due to a decline in safe-haven demand and the expectation of phased trade agreements. U.S. inflation data remains under pressure, with July PPI rising by 0.9%, the largest month-on-month increase in three years [5] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from around 40% to nearly 90%, with projections for three rate cuts within the year [5] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated, with long-term economic recession risks potentially driving a shift towards rate cuts and a restructuring of the global monetary system [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend due to strong demand factors [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to continue in a weaker pattern under the influence of a sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend as the demand growth rate has declined and the OPEC+ is increasing production, which may lead to a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.19 million tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The production and sales growth rates increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons, and a significant increase of 79,000 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. As of August 15, 2025, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 891,100 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 295,100 tons, and a significant increase of 102,100 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 295,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 56,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 142,700 tons compared with 438,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 74 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 27,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels and a significant decrease of 3.98 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.051 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 45,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.9 percentage points [12]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 12, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,820 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | - 1,070 yuan/ton | + 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan/ton | + 16 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 459.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 486.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.6 yuan/barrel | - 26.9 yuan/barrel | + 1.3 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, WTI and Brent net - position changes, etc.) [14][26][39]

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report: Loose Liquidity and Risk Appetite Resonance, A-shares Expected to Reach New Highs" [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - In the first half of 2025, under the impact of Trump's domestic and foreign policies, global major asset fluctuations intensified. Stocks performed the best, followed by bonds. Commodities were divided, with externally-driven varieties outperforming domestic-demand products. The currencies of the G2 countries were under pressure, with both the US dollar and the RMB weakening [2][3][8] - In the domestic market, equities (+5.83%) > bonds (+0.87%) > commodities (-2.09%) > RMB (-6.03%). A-shares' performance was centered around China's AI breakthroughs and Trump's tariff disruptions. AI利好 catalyzed the technology and growth sectors to lead in stages, boosting risk appetite. Tariff uncertainties dragged down the export chain, suppressing the valuation repair of the cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Bonds mainly fluctuated based on tight liquidity, tariff-induced risk aversion, and their gains significantly converged compared to 2024. The RMB appreciated against the US dollar and depreciated against non-US currencies. Commodities were divided, with precious metals shining and domestic-demand commodities such as black metals and industrial products remaining weak [3][8] - In the overseas market, bonds (+7.27%) > equities (+6.07%) > commodities (+5.96%) > US dollar (-10.79%). In the first half of the year, global risk appetite fluctuated significantly. Trump's tariff policies once triggered a sharp market shock, but the recession remained at the expected level. Global stock markets quickly recovered after a sharp decline, with the Hong Kong, German, and South Korean stock markets rising by over 20%. Global bonds generally rose, led by emerging markets and US bonds, while European bonds were weaker. Commodities generally rose slightly, led by livestock and oils, with metals and industrial raw materials having moderate increases. The US dollar index fell by over 10%, dragged down by cooling soft data, tariff impacts on credit, and doubts about the Fed's independence [3][8] - Looking ahead, A-shares are expected to reach new highs due to the continuation of loose global central bank liquidity and the approaching of the profit bottom. In the bond market, treasury bond yields may decline further but with weak odds. Gold prices are bullish in the medium to long term, supported by global loose liquidity, geopolitical risks, and anti-globalization. Copper prices are expected to rise as the global economy is expected to recover and the supply of concentrates is expected to tighten. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the second half of the year due to oversupply and weak demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Performance - In the first half of 2025, under the impact of Trump's domestic and foreign policies, global major asset fluctuations intensified. Stocks performed the best, followed by bonds. Commodities were divided, with externally-driven varieties outperforming domestic-demand products. The currencies of the G2 countries were under pressure, with both the US dollar and the RMB weakening [8] - In the domestic market, equities (+5.83%) > bonds (+0.87%) > commodities (-2.09%) > RMB (-6.03%). A-shares' performance was centered around China's AI breakthroughs and Trump's tariff disruptions. AI利好 catalyzed the technology and growth sectors to lead in stages, boosting risk appetite. Tariff uncertainties dragged down the export chain, suppressing the valuation repair of the cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Bonds mainly fluctuated based on tight liquidity, tariff-induced risk aversion, and their gains significantly converged compared to 2024. The RMB appreciated against the US dollar and depreciated against non-US currencies. Commodities were divided, with precious metals shining and domestic-demand commodities such as black metals and industrial products remaining weak [8] - In the overseas market, bonds (+7.27%) > equities (+6.07%) > commodities (+5.96%) > US dollar (-10.79%). In the first half of the year, global risk appetite fluctuated significantly. Trump's tariff policies once triggered a sharp market shock, but the recession remained at the expected level. Global stock markets quickly recovered after a sharp decline, with the Hong Kong, German, and South Korean stock markets rising by over 20%. Global bonds generally rose, led by emerging markets and US bonds, while European bonds were weaker. Commodities generally rose slightly, led by livestock and oils, with metals and industrial raw materials having moderate increases. The US dollar index fell by over 10%, dragged down by cooling soft data, tariff impacts on credit, and doubts about the Fed's independence [8] 2. Equity Market 2.1 A-shares - In the first half of 2025, A-shares performed well, with broad-based indices generally rising. The Beizheng 50, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 led the gains, showing a significant structural market. The performance of large-cap blue-chip indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 was relatively limited. Overall, the market fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year, and risk appetite fluctuated between "China's AI narrative" and "Trump's tariffs." The market generally trended upward, with a decent profit-making effect. The market can be roughly divided into four stages [13] - Stage 1 (January 1 - January 13): The market declined weakly due to a lack of economic data, weakening policy effects from the fourth quarter of 2024, and rising overseas uncertainties ahead of Trump's inauguration. During this period, most indices adjusted, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline and the growth sector performing weakly [16] - Stage 2 (January 14 - March 18): The market rose significantly as the strong expectations for China's AI industry outweighed the weak economic reality. The market's pessimistic sentiment was significantly repaired after the China-US presidential call in mid-January, and risk appetite recovered. The popularity of DeepSeek in late January triggered strong expectations for China's AI innovation, becoming the core driver of the market. The "strong expectations" for China's AI industry outweighed concerns about Trump's tariffs and the "weak reality" of economic data, driving the market's trading volume to an average of 1.8 trillion yuan and the margin trading balance to a 10-year high of 1.9 trillion yuan. During this period, most indices rose, with small-cap growth stocks such as the Beizheng 50 and CSI 2000 leading the gains [17] - Stage 3 (March 19 - April 7): Risk appetite declined as the market shifted from strong industry expectations to economic reality. The market's expectations for a Q1 reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate cut were disappointed, and the liquidity remained tight until the end of March. The 10-year treasury bond yield rose, and overseas liquidity tightened marginally, putting pressure on valuations. The market's trading volume declined. On April 7, Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" far exceeded market expectations, triggering a global risk-off sentiment. The A-share market tumbled after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by more than 7% and thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit down [18][19] - Stage 4 (April 8 - June 30): The market gradually recovered as policy support and a stabilization of global risk appetite boosted investor confidence. Trump's decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days helped to stabilize global risk appetite. In response to the US tariffs, the Chinese government quickly introduced a series of policies to support the economy and counter the US measures. The central bank injected liquidity through a stabilization fund, helping to restore market confidence. The market entered a structural recovery phase with strong support at the bottom [19] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, A-shares still have upward momentum. On the earnings side, policy support is expected to improve the economic fundamentals, and the "earnings bottom" is approaching. On the valuation side, loose monetary policies at home and abroad are expected to continue, providing support for equity valuations. Policy support is expected to strengthen market expectations, and the A-share market is expected to reach new highs this year, breaking through the high set on September 24 last year. The market's performance will depend on the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the recovery of domestic risk appetite [20][21][22] 3. Bond Market 3.1 Treasury Bonds - In the first half of 2025, the bond market entered an adjustment phase after a unilateral upward trend at the end of 2024. The market's pricing of the weak domestic economic momentum became more comprehensive, and tight liquidity, tariff policies, and the recovery of risk appetite became the core variables driving interest rate fluctuations. The bond market can be roughly divided into three stages [27] - Stage 1 (January 1 - March 19): Interest rates rose as the market's expectations for loose monetary policies were revised, liquidity tightened, and the stock market strengthened. In early 2025, the 10-year treasury bond yield quickly fell below 1.6% due to the continued impact of loose policy expectations at the end of 2024. Subsequently, tight liquidity, disappointed expectations for a Q1 RRR cut and interest rate cut, and the recovery of risk appetite driven by the revaluation of technology stocks led to a rebound in interest rates. The yield curve showed a "bear flattening" trend. By mid-March, the 10-year treasury bond yield approached 1.9%, reaching a new high for the year [30] - Stage 2 (March 20 - April 7): Interest rates declined as the central bank shifted its focus to supporting the economy, risk aversion increased due to Trump's tariff policies, and regulatory guidance was introduced. As economic data weakened and external risks increased, the central bank shifted its policy focus from "risk prevention" to "growth stabilization." The tight liquidity in the first quarter gradually eased, and the equity market entered an adjustment phase. The 10-year treasury bond yield declined to 1.8%. In early April, Trump's tariff policies far exceeded market expectations, triggering a global stock market crash. Risk aversion drove funds into the bond market, and the 10-year treasury bond yield dropped to 1.6% [30] - Stage 3 (April 8 - June 30): Interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range as the market balanced the recovery of risk appetite, the implementation of loose monetary policies, and the increase in bond supply. In the second quarter, the bond market generally fluctuated within a narrow range as the market weighed the recovery of risk appetite, RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the supply of government bonds. The market mainly focused on two factors: 1) The China-US trade talks in Geneva reached an unexpected consensus, boosting market sentiment. The resilience of exports in the second quarter also provided some support for the economy and put pressure on the bond market. 2) The central bank announced RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in early May, leading to a marginal easing of liquidity. Despite the large supply of government bonds, the central bank's open market operations showed a strong intention to support liquidity, providing some support for interest rates [31] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, treasury bond yields may break through their previous lows, but the odds are weak. The economic fundamentals have not reversed, and the bond market is still likely to benefit from loose monetary policies. However, the recovery of risk appetite and the increasing attractiveness of risk assets may limit the downside potential of bond yields. The bond market may face some challenges in the second half of the year, including a potential increase in inflation expectations and the uncertainty of Trump's domestic and foreign policies [32][34][35] 4. Commodity Market 4.1 Gold - In the first half of 2025, the gold price continued its upward trend from last year, rising by more than 25%. The price increase was mainly driven by the risk aversion sentiment triggered by Trump's policies, increasing recession expectations, and doubts about the US dollar's credit. The gold market can be roughly divided into three stages [43] - Stage 1 (January 1 - April 2): The gold price rose as Trump's inauguration increased trade tensions, and weak US economic data and rising recession expectations drove investors to seek safe-haven assets. The US dollar index and the US treasury bond yield declined, and central banks around the world continued to increase their gold reserves, driving the gold price higher. During this period, the gold price trended upward [44][47] - Stage 2 (April 3 - April 21): The gold price reached a new high as Trump's tariff policies triggered a global risk-off sentiment and a crisis of confidence in the US dollar. The global market was shocked by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," which far exceeded market expectations. The initial sell-off of gold due to liquidity shortages and panic was quickly reversed as investors sought the safe-haven properties of gold. The gold price reached a record high of over $3,500 per ounce on April 22 [47] - Stage 3 (April 22 - June 30): The gold price fluctuated within a narrow range as the market's risk appetite recovered, and geopolitical risks increased. The US government's decision to ease its tariff policies and the strong US economic data put pressure on the gold price. However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided some support for the gold price. During this period, the gold price fluctuated between $3,175 and $3,450 per ounce [48] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the gold price is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by loose global liquidity, rising geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of anti-globalization. However, the narrowing of macro uncertainties and the increasing odds of a price correction may limit the upside potential of the gold price. The gold market may face some challenges in the second half of the year, including the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [49] 4.2 Copper - In the first half of 2025, the copper price generally trended upward, with a brief correction in April due to Trump's tariff policies. The copper market can be roughly divided into three stages [51] - Stage 1 (January 1 - March 26): The copper price rose as the global manufacturing sector recovered, and the expectation of fiscal expansion in China and Europe supported the copper demand. The supply of copper concentrates tightened, and the spot treatment charge (TC) price reached a record low, putting upward pressure on the copper price. The expectation of copper tariffs and the US government's investigation into copper imports also contributed to the increase in the copper price [53] - Stage 2 (March 27 - April 9): The copper price declined as Trump's tariff policies triggered a global risk-off sentiment, and the demand for copper decreased. The copper price dropped by more than 20% in a short period, reaching its lowest level of the year [53] - Stage 3 (April 10 - June 30): The copper price recovered as the market's risk appetite improved, and the supply of copper concentrates continued to tighten. The decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs and the weakening of the US dollar supported the copper price. The supply-demand balance of the copper market remained tight, and the spot TC price continued to trade below $40 per ton, providing strong support for the copper price [54] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the copper price is expected to be supported by loose global monetary and fiscal policies and the tightening of the copper concentrate supply. The global central banks are still in the process of cutting interest rates, and the fiscal expansion plans of China, the US, and Europe are expected to boost the copper demand. The supply of copper concentrates is expected to remain tight, and the spot TC price is expected to stay at a low level, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price is expected to trend upward in the second half of the year [54][55] 4.3 Crude Oil - In the first half of 2025, the crude oil price fluctuated significantly, mainly driven by geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff policies. The supply-demand imbalance in the crude oil market put downward pressure on the oil price. The crude oil market can be roughly divided into five stages [59] - Stage 1 (January 1 - January 15): The oil price reached a new high for the year as the US government's sanctions on Russian oil and the tense situation in the Middle East increased the market's concerns about supply disruptions. The OPEC+ countries reaffirmed their commitment to the production cut agreement, and the cold weather in the US and Europe increased the demand for heating oil. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price approached $80 per barrel [61] - Stage 2 (January 16 - March 10): The oil price declined as the market's concerns about the supply-demand imbalance increased, and the weak US economic data and Trump's tariff policies put pressure on the oil price. The OPEC+ countries postponed their planned production increase until April, but the increasing production from non-OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, and Canada deepened the oversupply situation. The demand for oil was also weak due to the weak global economic growth and the increasing trade tensions. The oil price dropped by 16% from its high to around $65 per barrel [61] - Stage 3 (March 11 - March 31): The oil price fluctuated within a narrow range as the market balanced the expectation of an increase in oil supply and the recovery of the oil demand in Asia. The OPEC+ countries confirmed their plan to gradually exit the production cut agreement in April, and the increasing US crude oil inventory put pressure on the oil price. However, the strong economic data from China and the expectation of policy stimulus increased the demand for oil in Asia, providing some support for the oil price [62] - Stage 4 (April 1 - May 5): The oil price dropped sharply as the market's concerns about the supply-demand imbalance increased, and the weak global economic data and Trump's tariff policies put pressure on the oil price. The OPEC+ countries prematurely lifted some of the voluntary production cuts, and the increasing production from non-OPEC

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Global oil and gas capital expenditure has declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a 122% reduction from 2014 highs to $351 billion in 2021, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [8][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened concerns over global energy supply, with the EU aiming to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][31] - Current oil prices are under pressure, with Brent crude at $67.89 per barrel and WTI at $63.31 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.01% and 2.17% respectively [10][32][50] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has shown resilience, with the average market price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 692 yuan per ton, up 2.61% week-on-week, supported by increased demand from power plants [11][12] - The supply side is gradually improving as coal mines resume production, but demand remains strong due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption [11][12] - The focus on domestic coal production and the impact of international energy dynamics, particularly from the EU's renewed coal demand, are expected to enhance the profitability of domestic coal companies [12] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal - The price of coke remains stable at 1280 yuan per ton, with downstream steel mills showing a need for replenishment despite high raw material costs [13][14] - Coking coal prices are also stable at 1610 yuan per ton, with market sentiment cautious as procurement slows down after previous stockpiling [13][14] - Steel production remains robust, with an average daily output of 240.73 million tons, indicating ongoing demand for coke [13] Group 4: Natural Gas Trends - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a slowdown in global natural gas demand growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, with expectations of accelerated growth in 2026 [15][16] - Natural gas prices have decreased, with NYMEX natural gas averaging $2.86 per million British thermal units, down 5.6% week-on-week [15][16] - The EU's agreement on a natural gas price cap may exacerbate liquidity issues in the market, potentially leading to supply shortages [16][17] Group 5: Oilfield Services Sector - The oilfield services industry is experiencing a recovery in activity levels, supported by government policies aimed at increasing oil and gas production [18][19] - Global active rig counts have increased to 1621, with a slight rise in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a positive trend in exploration and production activities [19] - The overall capital expenditure in the oil sector is expected to continue growing, driven by high oil prices and geopolitical factors [18]