黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 黑色商品日报 | | 市场仍在观望，首询价格 5700 元/吨，较上月环比下降 250 元/吨。锰矿端近期也有新消息传出，South32 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 发布关于 GEMCO 恢复澳大利亚锰矿石出口销售的声明，第一批锰矿正在装船，预计几天后离港发运， | | | | 近期国内锰矿价格相对稳定。综合来看，近期市场在观望主流钢招定价情况，持续上行驱动有限，短期仍 | | | | 以震荡看待。 | | | | 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5638 元/吨，环比下跌 0.14%，主力合约持仓环比增加 1111 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5400 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日下调 50 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势偏 | | | 硅铁 | 弱，硅铁期价高开低走，尾盘小幅收跌。硅铁主流钢招价格敲定，最终 75B 采购价格 5800 元/吨，较首询 | 震荡 | | | 价格小幅上调，但较 4 月定价下跌 150 元/吨，5 月采购数量 2135 吨，较上轮增 435 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the document. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Power Coal - **Base Difference**: From May 14 to May 20, 2025, the base difference of power coal was -184.4, -187.4, -187.4, -189.4, -190.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are presented, such as the base difference of INE crude oil being -9.79 on May 20 [9]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, is given, with the price ratio on May 20 being 0.1373 [9]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of natural rubber on May 20 was -40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of different chemical products in different periods (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber being 120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of different chemical products on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the LLDPE - PVC spread on May 20 being 2289 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Black Metals - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of black metals such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of rebar on May 20 was 122.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of black metals in different periods are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar being 12.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of black metals on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio on May 20 being 4.22 [15]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Difference**: The domestic base difference data of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of copper on May 20 was 910 yuan/ton [23]. - **LME Data**: The LME data of non - ferrous metals on May 20, 2025, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss, are presented, such as the LME premium of copper being 3.16 [30]. (2) London Market - **LME Base Difference, Shanghai - London Ratio, Import Profit and Loss**: Relevant data and trends are presented through charts [32][33][34]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of soybean No.1 on May 20 was -191 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of agricultural products in different periods are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 being -8 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of agricultural products on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the soybean No.1/corn ratio on May 20 being 1.81 [38]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of CSI 300 on May 20 was 32.77 [48]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of stock index futures in different periods are presented, like the next - month/current - month spread of CSI 300 being -39.6 [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Short - term bullish factors have been realized, and the upward driving force is slowing down [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in low - level oscillations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Due to the resonance of the black - metal sector and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, they are in weak oscillations [2][13]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in bottom - level oscillations [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: With the increase in coal mine inventories, it is in a weak and oscillating state [2][22]. - **Logs**: In a weak oscillation [2][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures closed at 725.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.35%). The import and domestic ore prices had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also showed different fluctuations [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6% last month), and the 1 - year LPR was 3% (down from 3.1% last month) [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: RB2510 closed at 3,058 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.59%); HC2510 closed at 3,202 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.37%). Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also fluctuated [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: South Korea continued to impose anti - dumping duties on stainless steel sheets from China, etc. In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 8602 million tons, with daily output down 4.3% month - on - month. From January to April, Hebei had the highest crude steel output [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices of different contracts decreased. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide had different changes, and the price spreads also fluctuated [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In April 2025, China's silicon - manganese exports and imports, manganese ore imports data were released. South32 resumed Australian manganese ore exports, and NMT announced the June 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: JM2509 closed at 838.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.77%); J2509 closed at 1407.5 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.44%). Spot prices and basis, spreads had different changes [18]. - **Price and Position Situation**: Northern port coking coal quotes and May 20 CCI metallurgical coal index were provided. On May 20, for JM2509, long positions increased by 6841 hands, short positions increased by 6888 hands; for J2509, long positions increased by 750 hands, short positions increased by 582 hands [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: ZC2506 had no trading, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were given. On May 20, for ZC2506, long and short positions both decreased by 0 hands [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts had different changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, China's real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks, such as Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's leader's strong stance on nuclear negotiations with the US, have led to increased market risk aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar index, and oil [1][3][17]. - The reduction of LPR this year has boosted the stock market, with heavy - weighted stocks rising significantly and market sentiment turning optimistic [2]. - In the commodity market, different products show various trends. For example, steel prices are in a weak and volatile pattern due to unimproved domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand; copper prices may be weak in the short term due to concerns about fundamental weakening; and the prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as import volume changes and weather conditions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices rose strongly due to geopolitical risks, once regaining the $3300 mark, but the sustainability of geopolitical risks is uncertain, and a new upward trend has not been confirmed. The Fed is waiting and watching, and there is a lack of incremental positive factors in the short term. It is recommended to reduce positions in the short term [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The discovery that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities has increased market risk aversion, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate. It is expected that the US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The reduction of LPR and the government's emphasis on financial support for the real economy have led to a rise in risk appetite in the stock market, with heavy - weighted stocks rising significantly. In the short term, retail investors' entry may be the reason for the continuous increase in funds. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the impasse of the Trump tax - cut bill, and Google's disappointing developer conference have led to a decline in market risk appetite. The US stock market is still in a volatile pattern, and the upside space is limited after approaching the upper limit of the volatile range [26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The reduction of deposit rates and LPR, and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. The problem with going long on long - term treasury bonds is the lack of odds. It is recommended to go long in the medium term but choose the right time and collect low - priced chips as much as possible [30][31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable. Due to high raw material costs and losses, the number of停产 or减产 enterprises is increasing, and the supply pressure is easing. It is expected that the operating rate will remain low and volatile to digest inventory [32][33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices have fallen. The increase in warehouse receipts and the weakening of the futures market have made the spot market pessimistic. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the decline in spot inventory can drive the continuous strengthening of spot prices and support the futures market [34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Steam coal prices continue to decline. Although the daily consumption of thermal power has improved in May, it is still in the off - season. The market is waiting for the recovery of demand in June to support prices, and attention should be paid to the support at the 600 - yuan level [35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The inventory of iron ore in major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased slightly. The market is waiting for new orders in June - July. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and arrange a small number of positive spreads at low prices [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC has raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean exports in May. Due to bad weather in Argentina and the US, and increased domestic soybean meal transactions, the futures price is expected to be volatile, and the pressure on the spot market remains [38][39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China's palm oil imports in April decreased month - on - month, while Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 20 increased month - on - month. The oil market rebounded, but it still lacks the driving force for a sharp rise. Attention should be paid to the determination of the US RVO obligation in 2026 [40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northwest market is weakly stable. The coking coal futures market is in a downward trend, and the supply is stable while the demand is expected to weaken. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish in the medium - to - long term [42][43]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - From a long - term, medium - term, and short - term perspective, the supply of pigs is still under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [44][45]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Domestic cotton imports in April continued to decline, and the import of cotton yarn was relatively stable. The sowing of US cotton has accelerated but is still slower than normal. The demand for upstream cotton is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile in the future. Attention should be paid to the progress of domestic cotton inventory reduction and Sino - US trade negotiations [50][51]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Thailand has cancelled incentives for the steel manufacturing industry, and Australia has launched an anti - dumping sunset review on Chinese wire rods. Steel prices are in a weak and volatile pattern, and it is expected that they will continue to fluctuate in the near future. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term and use the spot for hedging on rebounds [52][55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina plant in Shanxi is about to enter the roasting furnace maintenance stage. The spot price of alumina has risen. It is recommended to wait and see [56][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead - zinc mine in Russia will not suspend operations as planned. The terminal demand for lead is weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze overseas. The short - term price of lead is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention can be paid to the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In April, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the export of zinc alloys increased month - on - month. The pattern of near - strong and far - weak for zinc remains unchanged. It is recommended to short on rallies with a safety margin in the medium term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [61][65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - In April, China's imports of copper concentrates increased, while imports of refined copper decreased. The production of refined copper and copper products increased. Macro factors have a neutral impact on copper prices in the short term, and the market is worried about the weakening of fundamentals. It is recommended to conduct band trading [66][70]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The average winning bid price of photovoltaic modules has decreased. The silicon material enterprises' joint production - cut action is still under discussion. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies rather than unilateral operations [71][73]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In April, the export of industrial silicon increased month - on - month, and the import decreased. The demand is not improving significantly. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds and the cash - flow risk of large enterprises [74][76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply is still in excess, and the cost support is moving down. Although there is potential marginal positive news for overseas energy - storage demand, the market is still weak. It is recommended to control short positions and pay attention to potential supply disturbances [80][81]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, China's imports of refined nickel increased significantly. The price of nickel is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on band trading in the short term and long on dips in the medium term [82][83]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - API crude oil inventory has increased, and gasoline and refined oil inventories have decreased. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to price fluctuations. Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [84][85]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU and the UK have connected their ETS systems, which will improve trade and cooperation and increase market liquidity. European carbon prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [86][88]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has decreased, and the basis has declined rapidly. Due to supply disturbances and marginal strengthening of demand, PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has recently adjusted due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to be in a short - term adjustment [89][90]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from alumina is good. The rise in the caustic soda market is indirectly affected by the alumina market and is unlikely to have a significant increase [91][92]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is mainly stable. The paper mill's willingness to purchase pulp is not strong. The pulp market is expected to be volatile [93][94]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is in a narrow - range adjustment. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the PVC market is expected to be volatile [95]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of styrene in Shandong has decreased. An enterprise's device may return soon, which will relieve the short - term supply shortage. The styrene - benzene spread is expected to narrow [96][97]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories have decreased. The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate at a low level following the cost [98][100]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in North China is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply is low due to ongoing maintenance, and the demand is average. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [101]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price is slightly volatile, and the spot price is weak. The glass market is expected to operate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [102][103]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The Houthi rebels have blockaded two Israeli ports. The market sentiment may be supported, but the upside space of the EC2506 contract is limited. The short - term market is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the risk of spot prices falling short of expectations [104][105].

| | | | VA SUICFULURES | | 2025年05月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面惯性下挫。裸统表需环比回升,产登相对平稳,库存恢复下降态势。熬卷需求同步回瑜,产量有所回落,库存恢复下 降态势。铁水产量有所回落,整体仍处于高位,供应压力依然较大,随着需求决季临近,终端承接能力有特观察。从下游行业 看,内容整体依然偏弱,4月统计数据显示制造业扳资增建放缓, ...

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3069 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 下跌 13 元/吨，跌幅为 0.42%，持仓增加 4 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3140 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.81 万吨。据 | | | | 国家统计局数据，1—4 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 4.0%，增速较一季度下行 0.2 个百分点。分领 | | | | 域看，基础设施投资同比增长 5.8%，增速较一季度持平；制造业投资增长 8.8%，增速较一季度回落 0.3 个 | | | | 百分点，房地产开发投资下降 10.3%，降幅较一季度扩大 0.4 个百分点。从房地产分项指标来看，4 月房地 | | | | 产开发投资、销售、新开工、施工和竣工同比分别下降 11.53%、下降 2.91%、 ...

Report Title - Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report (May 20, 2025) [1] Core Content 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price of thermal coal was -182.4, -184.4, -187.4, -187.4, -189.4 respectively, with 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads all at 0.0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Price and Ratio**: From May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt showed different changes. For example, the base price of INE crude oil on May 19 was -14.51, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1386 [6] Chemical Commodities - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP) all had different values. For example, the base price of natural rubber on May 19 was -5 [7] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For products like rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month for iron ore, coke, coking coal; 5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month for rebar), and cross - variety ratios (e.g., rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke) all had different values. For example, the base price of rebar on May 19 was 111.0 [12] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Base Price Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the domestic base prices had different values. For example, the base price of copper on May 19 was 310 [21] London Market - **LME Premium, Shanghai - London Ratio, CIF, Domestic Spot, and Import Profit/Loss**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, on May 19, 2025, the LME premium, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss had different values. For example, the LME premium of copper was 15.52, and the import profit was 72.09 [27] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For products like soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and cross - variety ratios (e.g., soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) all had different values. For example, the base price of soybeans on May 19 was -222 [35] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price and Cross - Period Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base prices had different values, and the cross - period spreads (e.g., next month - current month, current quarter - current month) also had different values. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on May 19 was 33.95 [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core logic of the black sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply, upstream concessions in the industrial chain, cost loosening leading to a downward shift in the valuation center, and the limited short - term effect of demand - side and supply - side policies on price boosts. It's necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, the spot trend is weak, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread [5]. - For ferroalloys, the rebound of ferrosilicon due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon has no new production - cut expectations for now [6]. - For iron ore, it is in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel will be weaker than ore [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Weekend steel spot prices mainly declined. After the temporary improvement in market sentiment, the black sector returned to a decline, with carbon elements leading the decline. The industry's core logic is the relaxation of furnace material supply and upstream concessions. As domestic demand for building materials enters the off - season and the risk of weakening export - oriented plate demand exists, it is necessary to maintain a rolling sell - hedging strategy. For trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for spot - futures operations, and manage positions and conduct appropriate inventory rotation [4][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the first round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and coking coal auction prices continued to decline with a high non - bid rate. There are still expectations of further price cuts. In the futures market, the black chain index rebounded due to tariff reduction but was still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. Macroscopically, the trade war situation may fluctuate, and the financial data in April was weak. Industrially, the market has expectations for "rush - to - export" during the tariff suspension period, but steel prices are still rising weakly. For coking coal and coke, due to abundant supply and downstream de - stocking, the strategy of shorting on rallies is maintained for single - side trading, and consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread [5]. Ferroalloys - There were many production - cut news for large - scale ferrosilicon and manganese silicon manufacturers this week, with a significant decline in production. Ferrosilicon spot is tight, and its rebound may continue. Manganese silicon has no new large - scale production - cut expectations after profit repair. The Hebei Steel Group's tender price was at a low level, but the quantity increased. The cost of manganese ore rebounded, and the overall cost of manganese silicon was stable. The cost of ferrosilicon may decline slightly. It is recommended to hold previous long positions in ferrosilicon and positive calendar spreads of the two ferroalloys [6]. Iron Ore - The current comprehensive tariff is still at a high level. In May, iron ore is in a volatile state. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel may be weaker than ore. It is recommended to consider shorting on rallies [7]. Market Data - **Futures Market**: On May 16, the far - month and near - month contract closing prices of various black metal varieties mostly declined, with different degrees of decline in each variety. The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: On May 16, the spot prices of various black metal varieties also mostly declined, and the basis of each variety showed different degrees of change [2].

2025年05月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 2 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 6 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 05 月 19 日 螺纹钢：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 热轧卷板：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 2 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,082 | -36 | - ...