1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment drives the market higher, but weakening demand limits the upside. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate under pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 9, the black - series commodity futures stabilized overall, and coking coal and coke continued to rebound. The closing price of rebar was 3063 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; iron ore closed at 736.5 yuan/ton; coking coal rose more than 3% [1] Market Analysis - Supply: After the mainstream mines finished their volume - boosting, shipments dropped sharply. From June 30 to July 6, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 362700 tons to 29.949 million tons, a decline of 11.5%. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, while those from non - mainstream regions increased slightly. Meanwhile, the previous shipments arrived at ports, and the arrival volume at 47 ports in China from June 30 to July 6 was 25.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons. The port inventory increased slightly last week and is expected to continue to rise [1] - Demand: Demand slowed down, steel mills faced greater sales pressure, and some blast furnaces were approaching mid - year maintenance. The molten iron output stopped increasing and started to decline. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained stable at 59.31%, but the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 83.46%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.54% to 90.29%. The daily average molten iron output this week dropped to 2.4085 million tons, the lowest since the end of April. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand, and the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased slightly last week [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the post - decline stabilization and shock market or the strength relationship between the two [1]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3061 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 11 元/吨，跌幅为 0.36%，持仓减少 4.13 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3130 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.59 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 1.29%至 375.07 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.87%至 174.22 万吨。 | | | | 螺纹热卷库存均呈上升态势，钢材现实驱动有所走弱。上周盘面上涨后基差收敛，淡季下游对现货涨价的 | | | | 接受度不高，部分品种如唐山钢坯近期累库较快，对盘面价格走势存在一定压制。不过目前现货基本面矛 | | | | 盾并不明显，市场对于"反内卷"政策推进仍存有一定预期。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理运行为主。 ...

【钢材】情绪冷静,日线收绿 周一期现价格小跌,基差暂稳,建材贸易成交再度回落至10wt下方,情绪退温后,价格乏力。"反内卷"情绪带来的脉沖 反弹,最先表达为期价上冲;我们昨日也有提到,能带动的现货跟涨动能持续性并不够,导致基差快速压缩,个别区域或 牌再现期货升水,利于期现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。不过市场上对限产的关注度也在拔高,7月~8月预计会有不定期 限产行为,虽然从市场化的角度来看,钢厂生产利润不错,主动限、减产的意愿并不强,但行政性的扰动概率会增加,这 点要保持关注。当下现货受浓香影响大,市场看涨信心在淡季里并不坚挺,现货商不追涨,现货持货意愿不强,有利润快波 兑现以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路,情绪降温后或有短波段价格回落的风险。 胎色金属数据目报 | 2025/07/08 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/07 | -177.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/04 | -178.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/03 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.07） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3061 -21 -0.68% 3180 119 | | 热卷 | 3191 -20 -0.62% 3260 69 | | 铁矿 | 731 -5 -0.68% 730 -1 | | 焦煤 | 835 -15 -1.76% 880 45 | | 焦炭 | 1422.5 -13.5 -0.94% 1182 -240.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体下跌。螺纹收于3061元/吨，跌幅0.68%；热卷主力合 | | | 约收于3191元/吨，下跌0.62%；铁矿今日主力合约收于731元/吨；双焦今天继 | | | 续下跌。 | | | 市场分析 | | | 247家钢厂日均铁水产量仍处于绝对高位水平，上周回落至4月末以来最低位 | | | 240.85万吨。另外七八月传统高温多雨天气影响，下游实际需求增量或有限， | | | 部分钢厂有减产意向，钢厂仍将以销定产为主，采购情绪整体偏谨慎。 | | | 焦炭价格累计下跌四轮后，原料煤并未跟跌 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of black commodity futures today was average. The supply - side favorable sentiment pushed up the price center of the steel futures market this week, but downstream demand may be limited due to weather, and some steel mills have the intention to cut production. The coking coal and coke markets have complex supply - demand situations, and the market faces a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the coking coal futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Overview - The closing price of rebar was 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 732.5 yuan/ton; the prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly [1] Market Analysis - Steel futures broke through the narrow - range shock this week, with the price center rising nearly 100 points due to supply - side sentiment. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills dropped to 2.4085 million tons, the lowest since late April but still at a high level. Downstream demand may be limited in July and August, and steel mills will mainly produce according to sales [1] - After four rounds of coke price cuts, raw coal prices rose, squeezing coke enterprise profits. The profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants dropped to - 52 yuan/ton. Some coking plants cut production, and the inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while steel mill inventory increased. Some coking plants intend to raise prices, and the follow - up depends on pig iron output and cost [1] - The total inventory of coking coal increased by 0.93% to 257.209 million tons this week. The inventory structure improved, with coal mines and coal - washing plants reducing inventory, and ports and steel mills increasing inventory. The prices of various coking coal types rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal electronic auction improved, but the third - quarter long - term contract price is expected to drop, and increased imports will impact the supply side [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors should take a shock - based approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors should take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the price stabilizes and the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The supply - demand structure has not reached a substantial turning point, and short - term structural relief may not support the continuous rise of futures prices. The market faces a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and the coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]

盖色金属数据日报 7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 螺纹基差(石轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上 - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 60-6700 10-570 as 2008 2008 2008 200 | 热卷基差(右轴) = 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75r 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 【钢材】续涨动能尚可,周数据好转也添了一点油 4000 600 周四黑色板块依然算是坚挺,盘面延续增仓反弹,期盘续涨动能尚可;钢联周度数据显示淡季累库幅度和需求掉的节奏都没 3000 有失速,暂时托住了市场的信心。"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随,期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货 400 成交及投机需求的放量,观察持续性;我们更倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自 2000 利好并不能持续太久。值得关注的是,黑色板块品种的基差近期持续收缩, ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、动力煤 二、能源化工 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/03 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/30 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/27 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 45 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/30 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/27 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/26 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是 ...