Economic Performance Overview - In May, the national economy showed resilience and stability, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic goals due to more proactive macro policies [1] - Key indicators in May demonstrated month-on-month increases, with industrial added value growing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [1] - The service sector also accelerated, with the service production index increasing by 6.2% year-on-year and the business activity index at 50.2, indicating expansion [1] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail sales in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, marking a new high for 2024 [1] - The growth in consumption was driven by favorable policies and promotional activities, including the "6.18" online shopping festival and holiday effects from the "May Day" and "Duanwu" festivals [1] - Domestic tourism during the "May Day" holiday saw a 6.4% increase in visitor numbers, while restaurant revenue grew by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Export and Trade Performance - In May, China's total goods import and export amounted to 38,098 billion yuan, with exports at 22,767 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [2] - Despite the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., overall export growth remained positive, with a 7.2% increase from January to May [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7%, lower than the 4.0% growth observed in the first four months [2] - Investment in the primary industry rose by 8.4%, while the secondary industry saw an increase of 11.4%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 0.4% [2] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining by 0.7% month-on-month and new housing prices also decreasing [3] - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area further declined year-on-year in May, indicating a need for policy intervention to stabilize the market [3] Policy Recommendations - There is a necessity for targeted macro policies to enhance investment momentum and stimulate private investment, particularly in the real estate sector [3] - The government is encouraged to innovate service offerings to boost consumption, especially in tourism, dining, retail, and transportation as summer approaches [3]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7% year-on-year, marking the lowest level this year[4] - Retail sales in May reached 4.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, exceeding market expectations of 4.85%[5] Industrial Sector Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a 9.0% year-on-year increase in added value, contributing 54.3% to overall industrial growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing growth slowed to 8.6%, down by 1.4 percentage points from April, primarily due to high base effects and reduced policy stimulus[4] - The export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by only 0.6% year-on-year, indicating weakened external demand[4] Investment Trends - Equipment and tool investment surged by 17.3% year-on-year, contributing 63.6% to overall investment growth, driven by policies like "old-for-new" and equipment upgrades[4] - Real estate investment in May fell by 10.7%, with residential investment declining by 10.0%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the property sector[5] - Infrastructure investment recorded a growth rate of 10.42%, supported by special bonds and long-term treasury bonds, despite a slight decline from April[5] Consumer Behavior - Essential consumer goods such as grain and oil saw a growth rate of 14.6%, indicating resilience in basic consumption[5] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories like home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 53.0% and 25.6% respectively[5] - Automotive retail sales grew by only 1.1%, significantly lower than the overall retail growth, primarily due to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles[5] Future Outlook - Industrial growth may slow marginally in June, with high-frequency data indicating a shift towards the off-season for several upstream industries[5] - Manufacturing investment is expected to remain high, driven by policy support for equipment updates and green transformation, but may face constraints from low export demand[5] - Retail sales growth may slightly decline, with ongoing policy support being a key factor in sustaining consumer demand[5]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, indicating positive service sector performance[13] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, driven by the early "618" shopping festival[19] - Major categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% year-on-year[23] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, below the market expectation of 4.0%[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7%[4] Employment and Labor Market - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation[6] - The job market remains sensitive to external economic conditions, with policies aimed at supporting key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers[6] Market Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a slight economic slowdown compared to the first quarter, with potential non-linear characteristics due to external uncertainties[1] - A dual bull market in stocks and bonds is anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by easing U.S.-China trade relations and risk mitigation funds[1]

Economic Overview - In May, external demand showed signs of recovery while internal demand remained mixed, supported by policy measures and holiday effects [3][5] - The industrial added value in May grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 6.1% in April, but still above 5% [5][7] - Service sector production index increased by 6.2% year-on-year, driven by information technology and retail sectors [9] Production Insights - The production recovery was evident, with industrial added value showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61%, higher than the previous month [5][7] - Export-oriented industries and those benefiting from favorable policies exhibited divergent performance, with transportation equipment and electrical machinery facing significant declines [7] - The automotive sector saw a notable rebound, with production growth increasing by 2.4 percentage points, attributed to policy incentives and market demand [7] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, with significant contributions from the "old-for-new" policy and pre-holiday promotions [13][14] - Online retail sales surged by 11.5%, reflecting the impact of early promotions and policy support [14] - Categories benefiting from the "old-for-new" initiative, such as home appliances and communication equipment, experienced substantial growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively [14] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking a decline from 3.6% in April [17][18] - Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showed weakening trends, with real estate investment declining by 12.0% [17][21] - Infrastructure investment requires acceleration in physical work volume formation, with current construction PMI readings indicating slower growth [18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed mixed signals, with sales area and sales revenue declining by 3.3% and 6.0% year-on-year respectively [21] - New housing starts and completion areas also saw significant declines, although the rate of decline has narrowed [21] - The demand side of the real estate market is showing signs of weakening, necessitating ongoing policy support [21]

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index has increased to 6.35% as of June 8, up from 5.82% on May 25, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car retail sales, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [1][7][8] - Passenger car retail sales maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 19% before June, compared to 13.3% in May and 14.5% in April [1][11] - Real estate sales showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% in the first 13 days of June across 67 cities, compared to a 13% decline in May [1][12] Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates continued to rise, with asphalt operating rates at 31.5% as of June 11, up 9.3% year-on-year [1][19] - Cement dispatch rates reached 41.4% as of June 6, slightly up from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [1][19] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17.5% year-on-year as of June 13, indicating a recovery in coal production [1][20] Consumer Behavior - Service consumption showed a decline in metro passenger traffic and flight operations, with metro ridership averaging 76.17 million daily in 27 cities, down 0.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The land premium rate has significantly decreased to 1.04% as of June 8, down from 5.14% in May and 9.75% in April, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [3][13] Trade and Prices - Global oil prices surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil rising by 13% and Brent crude by 11.7% [2][39] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 20.5%, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 7.6%, reflecting higher shipping costs [2][39] - U.S. imports continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 9.4% in early June, and imports from China decreased by 28% [3][25] Interest Rates and Debt Issuance - Government bond yields slightly decreased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.4002%, 1.5447%, and 1.6440% respectively as of June 13 [4][59] - New special bond issuance has progressed faster than in 2024, with a total of 1.69 trillion yuan issued by June 13, representing 38.4% of the annual target [3][47]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.7%, but down 0.3 percentage points from April[2] - The cumulative value from January to May is still 0.5 percentage points higher than the total for last year[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 5.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9%, and up 1.3 percentage points from April[2] - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth from January to May was 3.7%, below the expected 4.0%, but still 0.5 percentage points higher than last year[2] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing sector investment from January to May saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from January to April, and 0.7 percentage points lower than last year[10] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from January to April, but up 1.2 percentage points from last year[10] - Real estate investment showed a decline of 10.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from January to April, and 0.1 percentage points lower than last year[10] Trade and Exports - In May, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down 3.3 percentage points from April, while cumulative exports from January to May were up 0.2 percentage points from last year[11] - Imports decreased by 3.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from April, with cumulative imports down 12.3% from last year[11] - The trade surplus in May was $103.2 billion, a historical high, with a cumulative surplus of $471.9 billion from January to May, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%[11] Economic Challenges - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, slightly below the expected 5.1%, but youth unemployment remains high, affecting consumer confidence[4] - The CPI in May was -0.1%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures, while the PPI was -3.3%[25] - Real estate sector challenges continue to impact overall economic growth, with new housing starts down 22.8% year-on-year from January to May[33]

Consumption and Retail - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2024, boosted by subsidies in home appliances and communications[1] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year growth of 53.0%, while communication equipment grew by 33.0%, with increases of 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month[1] - Retail sales of essential goods and dining services grew by 9.6%, 5.3%, and 5.9% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in essential and service consumption[1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth fell to a year-to-date low of 2.7% year-on-year in May, a decline of 0.8 percentage points for the second consecutive month[2] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) dropped to a six-month low of 4.9%, down by 0.9 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, deepening by 2.2 percentage points, marking the lowest since October 2024[2] - New housing starts and completions fell by 18.2% and 22.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector[2] - Housing prices in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing down to 6.2%[2] - The textile industry, significantly impacted by previous high tariffs, saw a notable decline of 2.3 percentage points compared to April, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.6%[2] - Export-oriented industries such as automotive and electronics maintained growth rates above 10%, with increases of 11.6%, 10.2%, and 11.0% year-on-year[2] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a "two strong, two weak" scenario, with robust durable goods consumption and a slowdown in real estate and traditional infrastructure investment[2] - A potential interest rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market, along with an expected increase in consumer subsidies of 200 billion yuan to counteract potential export declines[2] - The central government's fiscal expansion is likely to be a key source of incremental policy support in the second half of the year[2]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in the previous month[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, up from 5.1% in April, indicating stronger consumer demand[3] - Fixed asset investment for January to May showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[3] Industrial Sector Insights - The manufacturing sector's added value growth slowed to 6.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to external trade environment changes[8] - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises fell to 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 0.9% in April, reflecting ongoing challenges in international trade[8] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 8.6%, indicating resilience in this sector despite overall industrial slowdowns[8] Consumer Behavior - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in durable goods, with household appliances and communication equipment seeing growth rates of 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively[12] - Despite a rebound in automobile retail sales growth to 1.1%, there remains a significant gap between sales volume and revenue growth, attributed to price pressures in the market[12] - Overall, consumer spending showed strong resilience, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption[12] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment for January to May grew by 8.5%, but is expected to decline to around 8.3% in the coming months due to external economic pressures[13] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.7%, with a monthly drop of 12.4% in May, reflecting a cooling housing market[13] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6% year-on-year, but the monthly growth rate fell to 5.1%, indicating a slowdown in project implementation[16] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to continue interest rate cuts in the second half of the year to support economic growth, alongside new fiscal measures[17] - The real estate market requires further stabilization efforts, with policies aimed at supporting housing purchases and reducing mortgage rates being prioritized[17]

Economic Performance - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[2] - The growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation and April's figure of 4.0%[3] - Industrial production growth declined to 5.8% in May from 6.1% in April, also below the expected 6.0%[7] Consumer Trends - The sales growth of communication equipment surged to 33.0% in May, up from 19.9% in April, while home appliance sales jumped to 53.0% from 38.8%[2] - Restaurant consumption growth rose to 5.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from April[2] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained negative at -0.1% for the fourth consecutive month, indicating low inflation[8] Investment and Housing Market - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year in May, worsening from the previous month's decline of 10.3%[3] - The average price of new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.22% month-on-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.12% in April[6] - The sales area of commercial housing in early June dropped by 9.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing market[8] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to introduce fiscal support of 0.5-1.0 trillion yuan (approximately 0.35%-0.7% of GDP) by September, given the current economic conditions[1] - A potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points and interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points are anticipated in the second half of the year[1]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%[1] - The GDP growth rate for May is estimated at 5.6%, consistent with the previous value[1] - Social retail sales in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 1999[1] Consumption Trends - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% and communication equipment by 33.0%[1] - "Self-indulgence" consumption categories, such as sports and entertainment goods, saw growth rates of 28.3% and 21.8% respectively[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year; manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with an estimated monthly decline of 11.98%[1] Industrial Production - Industrial added value for May was 5.8%, down from 6.1% in April, indicating a marginal slowdown[2] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to slow down further due to external uncertainties and diminishing returns from equipment renewal policies[1] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down from 5.1% in April[2] - Local household unemployment improved significantly, while unemployment among migrant workers increased slightly[2]