Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate, surpassing the 7.0 mark, is attributed to the depreciation of the USD and seasonal factors, with the pace of appreciation exceeding expectations [2][3][4]. Group 1: USD Depreciation and Market Conditions - The USD index has weakened continuously since late November, with a decline of over 2% as of December 25, driven by market expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3][4]. - Weak performance in the US labor market and inflation data has contributed to expectations of a potential easing by the Federal Reserve, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November and average hourly earnings dropping to a low of 3.5% year-on-year [4][9]. Group 2: Seasonal Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Historically, the RMB tends to appreciate significantly at the end of the year, driven by factors such as increased settlement needs from exporters and a general weakening of the USD [13][15]. - In December, the RMB appreciated by approximately 1%, with an annualized rate exceeding 10%, although such rapid appreciation may not be sustainable [20][21]. Group 3: Internal and External Factors Supporting RMB Strength - The RMB's strength is supported by low inflation, strong exports, and high trade surpluses, with the trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in November [22][23]. - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting domestic demand rather than relying solely on external demand, which is expected to support the RMB's appreciation in the medium to long term [22][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB is expected to maintain a moderate appreciation trend, with potential fluctuations influenced by external factors such as the USD's seasonal rebound and domestic market conditions post-Chinese New Year [20][21]. - The anticipated depreciation of the USD by around 5% next year could lead to a corresponding RMB appreciation of approximately 1.7% based on historical relationships [24].

Core Viewpoint - China's merchandise trade surplus continues to rise, while the service trade remains in deficit, with the current account to GDP ratio below 3.5% as of September this year, indicating that external imbalances are not very significant [2] Trade Surplus and Economic Structure - The trade surplus is driven by a downward financial cycle that reallocates resources towards high-efficiency high-end manufacturing, accelerated technological advancements, and a decline in non-trade goods prices due to real estate adjustments, which lowers the intermediate input costs for trade goods and boosts exports [2] - Private sector deleveraging has suppressed demand, leading to a slowdown in imports, while manufacturing upgrades have increased domestic production capabilities, further reducing imports [2] Trade Data Overview - For the period of January to November 2025, China's customs-based merchandise trade surplus reached a record high of $1,075.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21% [3] - Exports during this period amounted to $3,414.7 billion, an increase of $174.6 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of 5.4%, while imports decreased to $2,338.8 billion, a decline of $13 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of -0.6% [3] - The trade surplus as a percentage of GDP for the rolling 12 months ending September 2025 was 6.0%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with exports contributing 0.6 percentage points and imports contributing 0.7 percentage points to this increase [3] Regional Trade Surplus - The main regions contributing to China's merchandise trade surplus from January to November 2025 include Hong Kong ($273.2 billion), the EU ($266.9 billion), the US ($257.0 billion), and ASEAN ($246.1 billion) [4] - Conversely, trade deficits were recorded with Taiwan (-$133.4 billion), Australia (-$47.7 billion), South Korea (-$37.3 billion), Russia (-$19.5 billion), and Japan (-$4.3 billion) [4] Product-Specific Trade Surplus - The primary products contributing to China's merchandise trade surplus from January to November 2025 include electrical equipment (HS85) at $352.7 billion, machinery (HS84) at $320.7 billion, vehicles and parts (HS87) at $182.9 billion, furniture (HS94) at $104.4 billion, and uncategorized goods (HS98) at $97.4 billion [5] - In contrast, significant trade deficits were observed in mineral fuels (HS27) at -$354.4 billion, minerals (HS26) at -$239.5 billion, jewelry (HS71) at -$64.0 billion, copper and its products (HS74) at -$50.5 billion, and nuts (HS12) at -$49.4 billion [5] Economic Indicators and Trends - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with the China Real Estate Prosperity Index rising to 95.4, driven by improvements in sales and financing indices [6] - The demand for new and second-hand homes has seen a narrowing decline compared to 2019, indicating a potential stabilization in the housing market [6][7] - The wholesale price index for essential products has shown a slight decrease, while the retail sales of major appliances and passenger vehicles have experienced significant year-on-year declines [8]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of dividend style in 2025 is expected to be relatively flat, presenting phase-specific and structural opportunities. The growth style has led the market, with the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 rising by 51.5% and 36.1% respectively since the beginning of the year, while the dividend style has seen a slight decline of 1.2% [2] Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - The A-share market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style in 2026, with a higher certainty for dividend style but still leaning towards structural and phase-specific opportunities. The demand for fund allocation supports the performance of dividend sectors [3] - The current low interest rate environment in China continues, with a slowdown in the decline of the ten-year government bond yield since July, leading to a stable bond market outlook. This backdrop is expected to increase the motivation for long-term funds, such as insurance and bank wealth management, to allocate to equities, highlighting the appeal of dividend assets [3] - The policy environment has been increasingly supportive of dividend distribution, with the new "National Nine Articles" reinforcing dividend regulations and encouraging companies to enhance their dividend capabilities. By 2024, the overall dividend payout ratio in A-shares is expected to rise to 45% [4] Group 2: Dividend Style Investment Strategy - The support factors for the dividend style have been largely reflected, while the stability of the underlying companies will be the key focus for future stock selection. Companies are encouraged to enhance their dividend capabilities to attract investors [6] - An optimized high-dividend stock selection strategy has been constructed, focusing on quality free cash flow, stable high dividends, and moderate dividend yields. This strategy aims to outperform traditional high-dividend indices [6] - Specific stock selection criteria include: market capitalization over 20 billion, P/E ratio under 25, dividend payout ratios above 45% for non-financial companies, and a free cash flow to equity ratio above 8% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and extensive market coverage [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," integrates the wisdom of research analysts and offers a one-stop service for research reports, conference activities, and fundamental databases [1]. - The platform covers over 1,800 individual stocks, showcasing a deep accumulation of research [1]. - It utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research service experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - The platform provides daily updates on research focuses and selects timely articles for users [4]. - It features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots, enhancing real-time engagement [4]. - The platform includes over 3,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight offers more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases, providing comprehensive data resources [10]. - The platform includes a sophisticated data dashboard and AI search capabilities for efficient information retrieval [10].

Strategy - The recent surge in gold prices is supported by the Federal Reserve's resumption of a loose monetary policy, declining credibility of the US dollar, and escalating geopolitical risks. The current economic environment in the US is facing stagflation pressures, indicating that the gold bull market may continue. The long-term price target for gold is projected to be between $3,300 and $5,000 per ounce, although current prices may reflect some bubble characteristics. It is advised to focus on asset trend changes rather than specific price predictions. In early 2026, rising inflation and marginal economic improvement may lead the Fed to slow down its easing, potentially putting pressure on gold prices. However, a new Fed chair and declining inflation in the latter half of the year could accelerate rate cuts, providing renewed support for gold. The asset allocation strategy suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, adjusting commodities to benchmark, and maintaining an overweight in Chinese stocks while underweighting Chinese bonds and benchmarking US stocks and bonds [5][6]. Market Analysis - The recent divergence between stock and currency markets is attributed to different driving factors, and whether they will converge depends on the duration of the short-term factors causing the divergence and the direction of fundamental factors affecting both markets [7]. - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with investor expectations showing divergence during the "cross-year" phase, influenced by both internal and external factors. The fundamental drivers of the recent market rally are rooted in the reversal of international order and industrial innovation narratives, which have not changed. The current liquidity environment remains relatively loose, and the trend of "deposit migration" among residents is expected to continue, providing a good opportunity for investors to position themselves for the "cross-year" market [9]. Industry Insights - The global energy storage market is expected to see high growth in 2026, particularly in non-US overseas markets. The demand in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America is anticipated to rise, with AIDC contributing to new growth opportunities. Investment opportunities in both front-of-the-meter and behind-the-meter storage are recommended [11]. - AI is reshaping the demand structure for optical fibers, leading to a new supply-demand cycle in the industry. A supply shortage is expected to emerge within the next two years, resulting in price increases. The price of G.652.D fiber has risen by over 20% since early 2025, driven by AI's impact on multi-mode fibers and other models, which are occupying production capacity and tightening supply. This trend is likely to continue, benefiting existing manufacturers [14]. Macroeconomic Policy - Compared to previous years, the focus on supply-side measures to promote consumption has increased in the second half of 2025. The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized expanding the supply of quality goods and services and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector. This approach aims to release consumption potential by addressing entry barriers, optimizing regulation, and enhancing infrastructure for quality consumption. Preliminary estimates suggest that policy adjustments could impact a consumption market size of approximately 3.9 trillion yuan, about 3% of GDP, with a potential 10% increase in these areas possibly boosting overall consumption growth by 0.5 percentage points [16].

中金研究 光伏2026年有望实现供需关系的边际改善，各环节龙头有望扭亏为盈，具备困境反转的投资机会。由于光伏消纳问题突出，倒逼国内电力市场化及调 节性电源发展，储能迎海内外景气共振。 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 2026年或是光伏主产业链逆转之年。 光伏主产业链在反内卷的帮助下于2025年下半年逐步见底甚至改善，但财务报表的改善减缓了市场化出清，因此反 内卷的持续推进势在必行，组件顺价或将是核心。我们认为，2026年虽需求阶段性走弱，但供给端反内卷以及龙头企业alpha将帮助部分企业在2026年扭 亏为盈，储能装机带来消纳能力的增强，十五五中后期光伏需求有望修复。 装机走弱下玻璃胶膜分化，关注铜浆及半导体等第二增长曲线。 明年国内装机下滑，玻璃胶膜企业利润情况会出现分化，有海外客户基础的企业会增加 出口占比、利润重心上移，其他企业将面临更加激烈的竞争。银价高企促进银包铜浆料产业化，行业承压下辅材企业积极寻求半导体、存储领域等第二增 长曲线。 估值与节奏： 当前主产业链主要公司估值仍在1xP/B~ 2.5xP/B的历史底部区间，2Q26需求修复+反内卷推进+产品结构优化，有望迎来业绩批量转正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, which have recently surpassed $4,500 per ounce, driven by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's resumption of a loose monetary policy, the declining credibility of the US dollar, and escalating global geopolitical risks [2][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has restarted its easing cycle after maintaining interest rates for nine months, having cut rates three times by 25 basis points each since September [2]. - The Fed's forward guidance indicates potential further rate cuts in 2026, contributing to a more accommodative monetary environment that supports gold prices [2]. Group 2: Declining Credibility of the US Dollar - The US fiscal deficit has risen to around 6% post-pandemic, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, leading to increased debt risks [4]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have grown due to political interference, particularly with the upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair, which has contributed to a 10% decline in the US dollar index this year [4]. Group 3: Global Geopolitical Risks - Recent US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have escalated into maritime interception actions, while the Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, increasing geopolitical tensions [6]. - Gold's safe-haven attributes are benefiting from these geopolitical risks, with silver prices rising even more significantly due to industrial demand factors [6]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The current gold bull market has lasted for three years, with a 2.7 times increase in price, but the article cautions against assuming perpetual price increases, emphasizing the importance of data models for investment decisions [8]. - Historical analysis shows that gold bull and bear markets have relatively balanced durations, with gold experiencing the longest single bear market among major asset classes [8]. Group 5: Future Price Predictions - The article suggests that while the gold bull market may continue due to the current economic conditions, the price has already exceeded the short-term valuation model, indicating potential for volatility [18]. - The long-term price forecast for gold has been raised to between $3,300 and $5,000 per ounce, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [16]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends maintaining an overweight position in gold while being cautious of potential price corrections in early 2026 as the Fed's easing expectations may taper [19]. - There is a suggestion to adjust commodity allocations to standard levels and to remain overweight in Chinese stocks, while being cautious with bond investments due to high valuations [20].

Core Viewpoint - The global energy storage market is expected to experience significant growth by 2026, driven by increasing demand in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America, alongside contributions from AIDC (Advanced Industrial Data Centers) storage solutions [2][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - Demand in Europe is expected to rise due to energy shortages and the need for grid flexibility, shifting focus from residential storage to large-scale and commercial storage [2][3]. - In Australia, the mature electricity market is accelerating large-scale storage projects, supported by high subsidies for residential storage, ensuring long-term demand [2][3]. - The U.S. market is witnessing a continuous increase in large-scale storage demand due to aging grid infrastructure, although policy restrictions may push for accelerated domestic lithium battery production [2][3]. - The Asia-Pacific and Latin American markets are benefiting from reduced costs in solar storage, driving demand for large-scale storage to ensure power stability and lower electricity costs [2][3]. Group 2: AIDC and New Energy Projects - The U.S. AIDC sector is experiencing high growth, with more AIDC facilities integrating storage to enhance interconnectivity and accelerate grid connection [3]. - The demand for green methanol in the shipping industry is catalyzing the growth of green methanol projects, which are expected to boost storage demand [3]. - The ongoing demand surge is leading to a shortage of battery cells, with leading companies experiencing full order books extending into Q1 2026 [3]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Drivers - The storage industry's rapid growth is primarily driven by the increasing share of wind and solar power generation and the deepening of electricity market mechanisms [6]. - In China, the "Document No. 136" policy is pivotal in driving storage growth by transitioning from administrative pricing to market-based pricing, enhancing the economic viability of independent storage [11][12]. - The Australian government has introduced a significant subsidy program for home batteries, which is expected to boost residential storage installations substantially [16][18]. Group 4: Regional Market Insights - The European storage market is transitioning from subsidy-driven growth to economic viability, with increasing price differentials and declining system costs driving project implementations [21][22]. - In Latin America, countries like Chile and Brazil are reforming their electricity markets to allow independent storage systems to participate, creating substantial growth potential [32][33]. - In Africa, the reliance on diesel generators is expected to decline as the costs of solar storage systems decrease, providing a more stable power supply [33][45].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes optimism regarding fiscal policy in 2026, particularly in infrastructure investment as a means to stabilize economic growth amid a challenging real estate market [2][4][5]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The 2026 fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with a focus on stabilizing investment and stimulating private sector activity [4][5]. - Central government investment is anticipated to increase, while local governments will continue to reduce leverage due to rising debt risks [5]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2026, driven by ongoing support from central fiscal measures [2][15]. - The central government is expected to play a significant role in funding infrastructure projects, particularly in the western regions of China [27][28]. Regional Investment Opportunities - The western provinces, especially Sichuan, are highlighted as having high potential for infrastructure investment due to favorable central government support and strategic positioning [3][27][34]. - Sichuan's transportation investment is leading nationally, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong growth prospects [32]. Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize with a growth rate of around 5% in 2026, benefiting from a potential recovery in semiconductor capital expenditures [3][12]. - The cleanroom engineering sector is identified as a key beneficiary of increased capital spending in high-end manufacturing [3]. International Engineering Opportunities - The overseas market is anticipated to become a second growth curve for construction companies, with significant growth in new contracts and revenue from foreign projects since 2025 [3][12]. Debt Management and Corporate Valuation - The ongoing debt management efforts are expected to improve the asset quality and valuation of state-owned construction enterprises, which have seen a decline in price-to-book ratios due to rising receivables [2][16]. - The average funding cost for major construction enterprises is around 4%, with some companies achieving lower rates through bond issuance [22][23]. Construction Sector Dynamics - The construction sector is experiencing a shift towards higher market concentration, with leading companies increasing their market share significantly in recent years [22][23]. - The article notes that the average market share of major construction enterprises has risen to 22.9% in revenue terms and 48.9% in order terms [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing pressure on basic medical insurance in China, highlighting the need for a multi-tiered healthcare financing system where commercial insurance can play a crucial role in addressing funding gaps and meeting rising healthcare demands [2][3]. Summary by Sections Current State of Medical Insurance - The medical insurance fund is under significant pressure, with a projected total expenditure of 5.8 trillion yuan in 2024, where medical insurance accounts for 51%, commercial insurance for 7%, and out-of-pocket expenses for 42% [4][6]. - The income growth of medical insurance has been declining, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.9% in 2024, which is lower than the growth rate of expenditures [6][11]. Challenges in Medical Insurance - The income side faces challenges due to rising retirement rates, local fiscal pressures, and declining consumer willingness to spend, impacting the basic medical insurance revenue [11]. - On the expenditure side, the aging population and increasing number of retirees are expected to heighten the pressure on medical insurance payments [11][17]. Reform and Cost Control Measures - The article discusses the nationwide rollout of cost control measures inspired by the Sanming model, which has successfully reduced medical costs while maintaining service quality [11][12]. - Significant measures include the promotion of centralized drug procurement and adjustments to medical service pricing, which have led to a noticeable decrease in overall medical expenditures [13][16]. Future Outlook for Commercial Insurance - The article anticipates a golden development period for commercial insurance as it becomes a vital supplementary payment method to meet the growing demand for high-quality medical services [3][21]. - By 2035, a comprehensive and sustainable multi-tiered healthcare system is expected to emerge, with commercial insurance playing a key role in financing and innovation within the healthcare sector [3][24]. Integration of Commercial Insurance - The integration of commercial insurance into the healthcare payment system is being accelerated through initiatives like one-stop settlement processes, which aim to simplify claims and enhance the role of commercial insurance in hospitals [21][23]. - The introduction of a commercial insurance drug list is expected to facilitate reasonable pricing for innovative drugs, thereby supporting pharmaceutical companies and enhancing the overall healthcare ecosystem [24][30]. Comparative Analysis with Developed Countries - The article draws comparisons with developed countries, noting that the U.S. healthcare system, which is primarily driven by commercial insurance, has established a market-oriented pricing mechanism that incentivizes innovation [28][30]. - In contrast, the UK's National Health Service (NHS) model, while providing universal coverage, has faced challenges in service delivery, leading to increased demand for commercial insurance as a supplementary option [31][32]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the evolution of commercial insurance in China is essential for creating a robust healthcare financing system that can adapt to the changing demographics and healthcare needs of the population [3][24].