Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for China's economy in 2026, emphasizing the need for policies to address supply-demand imbalances and achieve around 5% economic growth through a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures [2][5]. Economic Outlook - In 2025, China's exports showed resilience despite U.S. tariffs, with an expected export growth of approximately 5.3% for the year [3][12]. - The internal demand weakened after a brief recovery, primarily due to debt pressures from financial cycle adjustments [3][29]. - The anticipated policy measures for 2026 will focus on enhancing quality consumption supply while reducing inefficient production capacity [4][9]. Supply-Side Policies - The supply-side policies are expected to continue the "anti-involution" approach, aiming to reduce low-efficiency production while increasing quality consumption supply [4][9]. - The government may implement measures such as easing market access and optimizing management to stimulate consumption in sectors like health and education [5][64]. - The overall impact of these supply-side measures on total supply may be limited, as the focus is on optimizing resource allocation rather than broad capacity reduction [61][62]. Demand-Side Policies - Demand-side policies are projected to be moderately intensified, with a focus on increasing spending in high-efficiency sectors while reducing it in low-efficiency areas [5][66]. - The government is likely to enhance support for areas such as social security, education, technology, and environmental protection, while traditional infrastructure investment may slow down [5][66]. - The anticipated increase in the general budget deficit rate by approximately 1.5 percentage points in 2026 reflects the need for more robust demand-side measures [5][68]. Debt and Internal Demand - The internal demand is significantly affected by debt issues, with the private sector undergoing deleveraging amidst restrained policy stimulus [29][30]. - The burden of debt repayment is limiting the effectiveness of fiscal expansion, necessitating a focus on debt resolution to invigorate economic vitality [29][68]. - The analysis indicates that companies with longer accounts receivable periods are contracting in investment and employment, highlighting the need for debt clearance to stimulate economic activity [29][41]. Consumption Supply Enhancement - Recent policies emphasize the importance of increasing quality supply to stimulate consumption, with a focus on removing restrictive measures in various sectors [62][64]. - The potential market size for sectors benefiting from supply-side policy adjustments is estimated at approximately 3.9 trillion yuan, representing about 2.9% of the 2024 GDP [65][66]. - Specific areas identified for consumption enhancement include durable goods like yachts and private planes, as well as services in healthcare and education [65][66].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aiming to provide efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 stocks globally [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Focus and Updates - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - Senior analysts offer real-time interpretations of market hotspots through public live broadcasts [4]. Group 3: Research Reports and Data - The platform features over 30,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. - It includes more than 160 industry research frameworks and 40 premium databases, along with a sophisticated data dashboard [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming CICC Global Economic and Sector Outlook Conference 2025, focusing on various themes such as geopolitics, AI applications, US reindustrialization, and the global strategies of Chinese companies in the food and beverage sector [3][7][8]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will take place on November 14, 2025, at the Beijing Kerry Hotel [4]. - It will feature a welcome address by Sun Nan, a member of the Management Committee and Secretary of the Board of Directors at CICC [6]. - The agenda includes discussions on the future of geopolitics, the global economy, AI application unicorns in the US, and investment opportunities in US reindustrialization [7][8]. Group 2: Key Sessions and Guests - A session titled "Navigating the Future of Geopolitics, Global Economy, and Assets" will be led by Ashok Bhundia, the Deputy Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance [7]. - The session on "The Rise of AI Application Unicorns in the US" will feature co-founders and CEOs from Sahara AI and Anytime AI [7]. - Investment opportunities in US reindustrialization will be discussed by executives from Honeywell China and Minth Group [8]. Group 3: Chinese Companies' Global Strategies - A session titled "How Chinese Companies Can Transition from 'Going Out' to 'Fitting In'" will include insights from leaders of Dreame Technology and Yadea Group [8]. - The global strategy of Chinese food and beverage companies will be explored in a session featuring co-founders from Molly Tea and Powerful Group [9]. - The conference will also address the performance of Vietnam's capital market in the post-emerging market upgrade era [9].

Group 1: Innovation and Internationalization - The trend of innovation going abroad is clear, with pharmaceuticals leading the way and medical devices also expected to follow suit. The reform in drug approval continues to yield benefits, supported by domestic engineering talent, abundant clinical resources, and favorable policies, allowing Chinese innovative drugs to transition from imitation to FIC/BIC innovation [2][4][5] - Chinese innovative drugs are entering the international stage, with the industry moving from "import imitation" to "innovation output." The total amount of license-out transactions for Chinese pharmaceutical companies reached $40.8 billion in the first half of 2025, a 96% year-on-year increase, indicating a growing international competitiveness [5][10] - The medical device sector is also accelerating its international expansion, with overseas revenue growth outpacing total revenue growth, as companies enhance their global sales networks and product offerings [10][12] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Insurance Developments - Domestic demand is gradually improving after a period of weakness, with the impact of medical anti-corruption measures expected to ease by 2025. The introduction of policies to combat "involution" is reflected in the loosening price anchors for the first batch of generic drug procurement [11][12] - The development of commercial insurance is seen as a key factor in alleviating payment conflicts within the healthcare system. The push for a multi-tiered medical insurance system is gaining momentum, with commercial insurance expected to play a crucial role in expanding the domestic market [12][13] - The establishment of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs in 2025 is anticipated to enhance the payment capabilities for innovative products, supporting the balance between basic insurance and innovation [13] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The "dumbbell strategy" for 2026 emphasizes a dual focus on technological advancement and traditional defensive sectors. The rapid development of AI in healthcare is highlighted, with the potential for significant advancements in the industry [3][14] - Traditional pharmaceutical companies are expected to experience a new cycle of high-quality development driven by state-owned enterprise reforms and technological innovation, making them a stable investment option amidst various market pressures [14]

Group 1 - The article discusses the new dynamics of the dual circulation model in the context of changing geopolitical conditions, emphasizing the importance of innovation and domestic demand to leverage China's scale economy advantages [5][7] - It highlights the recent trends in the macroeconomic environment, including the tightening of dollar liquidity and the Federal Reserve's plans to end quantitative tightening by December 2025, which may lead to a reintroduction of balance sheet expansion [7][9] - The article analyzes the movement of foreign capital, noting a divergence in investment patterns between Asia-Pacific and Europe-America, with a projected inflow of approximately 4500-6000 million HKD from public funds and insurance into the Hong Kong stock market [9][11] Group 2 - It points out the divergence between stock market performance and macroeconomic fundamentals, suggesting that increased risk appetite among investors may be a key driver of stock market support despite weak economic indicators [12][14] - The article outlines the long-term trends affecting global markets, including the restructuring of monetary order and the AI technology revolution, which are expected to influence asset performance in 2026 [14][16] - It concludes with a strategy recommendation to maintain an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold while standardizing investments in U.S. stocks and bonds, anticipating potential shifts in economic indicators [14][16]

Group 1: Industry Trends - Trend 1: A new content cycle is anticipated under a policy-friendly environment, with the gaming industry demonstrating the potential for content release during such periods. The gradual normalization of game license issuance and the stabilization of the drama industry supply side are expected to enhance content richness and contribute to the resilience of gaming companies. 2026 is projected to be a critical observation window for content innovation and mechanism optimization [3][5][6]. - Trend 2: The development of AI is entering a new stage, with significant breakthroughs in various sectors by 2025. AI applications in film and television, gaming, advertising, and social communities are expected to enhance efficiency and drive revenue growth. By 2026, AI-native penetration and highly automated content generation are anticipated to attract more users and optimize monetization [3][8]. - Trend 3: The trend of "cultural export" is continuing in the gaming, online literature, and short drama sectors. The focus has shifted from indiscriminate content output to high-quality content with cultural core, tailored to local markets. This shift is expected to enhance the global presence of Chinese content and create a positive feedback loop between domestic and international markets [3][10]. - Trend 4: Upgraded demand is catalyzing a revaluation of IP value, with content companies increasingly focusing on IP strategies. The maturation of the domestic IP industry chain is expected to lead to a systematic revaluation of IP value, with industrialization of content production and diversification of revenue structures becoming key trends [3][12]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company remains optimistic about leading firms consolidating their industry positions and enhancing their capabilities through mergers and acquisitions. The digital media, online gaming, and social community sectors are viewed as having superior business models, benefiting from the new content cycle, AI efficiency improvements, and potential overseas advantages [4]. - In the advertising sector, attention is directed towards opportunities for acquiring quality media shares and enhancing operational efficiency through AI. The film and cinema industry is advised to focus on the marginal changes brought by broadcasting regulations and explore new models and integration opportunities [4]. - The publishing industry faces challenges from declining enrollment numbers, with a focus on high-dividend value companies in key provinces. The cable broadcasting sector is advised to monitor the operational capabilities of leading companies in value-added services and potential development opportunities under supportive policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry has been in a downward cycle for over three years, with low chemical price indices and industry profit margins. The price index for Chinese chemical products has decreased by 10.3% from early 2025 to now, currently at the 10.6% percentile since 2012. The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products was only 4.14% from January to August 2025, the lowest since 2017. The gross and net profit margins for petrochemical companies in Q2 2025 were 16.05% and 4.63%, respectively, also at low levels in recent years [2][5][20]. Group 1: Industry Downturn and Recovery Potential - The chemical manufacturing industry has faced a downturn for over three years, with increasing midstream chemical production capacity and pressure on downstream demand, alongside falling prices of upstream commodities like oil and coal [2][5]. - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector have continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 15.1% in the first half of 2025. The industry has seen a consistent decline in capital expenditures for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 [3][9]. - The exit of overseas production capacity, particularly in Europe, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances. A total of 11 million tons of chemical production capacity is set to exit Europe between 2023 and October 2024 [3][9]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift in policy aimed at controlling new refining capacity and managing the pace of new ethylene and PX production capacity to prevent overcapacity in coal-based methanol [3][10]. - The basic chemical sector's price-to-book ratio was 2.07x as of October 22, 2025, at the 32.6% percentile since 2012, indicating potential for long-term investment opportunities as favorable supply-side factors accumulate [3][20]. - The demand for bulk chemicals remains weak globally, but emerging manufacturing sectors related to AI, humanoid robots, and solid-state batteries are driving rapid growth in material demand [20][16].

Group 1: Core Views - The A-share transportation index has increased by 1% since early 2025, underperforming the market, primarily due to a pullback in infrastructure-related assets such as highways, railways, and ports [2] - For 2026, the focus is on three areas: 1) Rebound in pullback assets; 2) Growth opportunities in express logistics, particularly in response to anti-involution and technological penetration; 3) Structural opportunities in cycles, such as the supply-demand reversal in aviation and the demand for medium-sized container ships and VLCCs in shipping [2][3] Group 2: Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to test the results and sustainability of anti-involution, with direct express delivery potentially seeing a recovery. The growth rate for express delivery volume is projected to slow to around 10% in 2026, following a high base [4][5] - In the first nine months of 2025, express delivery volume grew by 17.2% year-on-year, driven by new consumption scenarios like live e-commerce and demand from central and western regions. However, growth rates have slowed since the third quarter [4] - The competitive landscape is influenced by market, regulatory, and platform factors, with regulatory changes being a key variable in 2025. The effectiveness of anti-involution measures is being observed, and the profitability of each segment in the express delivery chain needs to be maintained [4][5] Group 3: Road and Rail - Since June 2025, the highway index has underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the China Securities Dividend Index by 34.7 and 14.2 percentage points, respectively. However, the sector is now considered to have value for allocation after the pullback [8] Group 4: Shipping - The shipping sector presents structural market opportunities, particularly for small container ships and VLCCs, with ongoing geopolitical influences needing to be monitored. The average age of the global fleet indicates a supply tightness for smaller container ships [9][10] - The demand for compliant VLCCs is expected to rise due to OPEC's production increases, and geopolitical factors have continuously impacted the shipping market over the past five years [10] Group 5: Aviation - The supply-demand structure in the aviation industry is expected to gradually transition to balance or even a supply shortage, with ticket prices likely to increase. The annualized supply growth is projected at about 3%, while demand growth is expected to exceed 5% from 2026 onwards [11] - The industry is experiencing strong demand for private travel, and business travel is rebounding, providing further support for aviation demand growth. Engine issues may limit the growth of available aircraft in the coming years [11] Group 6: Airports - The operating leverage of airports is expected to gradually manifest as passenger traffic recovers, but the commercial logic of the airport sector remains to be observed. The growth in passenger volume is anticipated to return to single-digit normalization, with international routes showing relatively high growth [12] - The performance of non-aeronautical businesses at airports is expected to benefit from increased passenger traffic, but the stability of per capita spending, especially in duty-free shopping, remains uncertain [12]

Power Industry - The power demand is expected to maintain a steady growth of 5% to 6% in 2026, driven by stable macroeconomic development and new growth drivers, while the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to a downward trend in grid electricity prices, with pressure shifting from South China to East China [4][5] - New energy investment is projected to decline from the 2025 peak, with an expected new installed capacity of 250 to 300 GW in 2026, focusing on large bases and offshore wind power, while the industry structure is likely to concentrate further towards state-owned enterprises [4][5] - The recommended investment order based on sector trends and investor risk preferences is as follows: waste-to-energy > nuclear power > thermal power > new energy [5] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is facing temporary pressure on demand growth, with a projected global new installed capacity growth of approximately -10%, but the overall profitability of the industry chain has bottomed out and is slightly recovering [2][9] - The industry is expected to achieve marginal improvements in supply-demand relationships and further price recovery in 2026, with polysilicon and integrated components likely to turn profitable, while auxiliary materials like glass and films may see a rebound in profitability [9][10] - Domestic energy storage is anticipated to reach an economic turning point, benefiting from the increase in wind and solar installations, with significant investment opportunities arising from both domestic and overseas demand [9][10] Wind Power - The outlook for new wind power installations in 2026 is optimistic, with expected new capacity of 120 to 130 GW, driven by rising wind turbine prices, a recovery in offshore wind, and expansion in export directions [3][12] - The profitability of the wind power industry chain is expected to improve significantly, with the wind turbine segment likely to see a rebound in profitability due to increased demand and higher prices [12][13] - The domestic offshore wind sector is projected to continue its recovery, with significant growth potential in 2026, particularly in the context of a low base from 2025 [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to enter a bull market by 2026, driven by a combination of monetary easing, increasing demand, and supply constraints. The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and the trend of de-dollarization are likely to enhance global liquidity and demand for physical assets like non-ferrous metals [2][4]. Monetary Factors - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to have significant room for interest rate cuts as the U.S. economy cools down, which may lead to a decline in real interest rates. This environment could foster inflationary pressures, supporting the bull market for gold [4][5]. - The trend of de-dollarization is expected to increase the demand for gold as a stable asset amid global monetary system uncertainties, potentially leading to unpredictable price movements for gold [4][5]. Demand Factors - The demand for non-ferrous metals is projected to accelerate due to the restructuring of global supply chains, the rise of emerging industries such as AI, electric power, and renewable energy, and the re-industrialization efforts in the U.S. and Europe [2][3]. - Specific sectors like clean energy, electric vehicles, and high-end manufacturing are expected to drive significant demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and tin [3][8]. Supply Factors - The non-ferrous metal industry faces supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade, leading to low supply elasticity. Additionally, geopolitical factors are increasing the control of resource-rich countries over strategic minerals, adding uncertainty to supply [2][3]. - The copper market is expected to experience a clear supply-demand shortage by 2026, driven by frequent supply disruptions and a decline in new production capacity [7][9]. Specific Metal Insights - **Gold**: The decline in real interest rates and de-dollarization trends are expected to drive gold prices higher, with central banks and financial institutions increasing their physical gold holdings [4][5]. - **Copper**: The copper market is projected to face a significant supply-demand gap, with demand from clean energy and electric power sectors expected to grow substantially [7][9]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum sector is likely to enter a bull market due to tightening supply and recovering demand from various industries, including construction and electric vehicles [10]. - **Tin**: The tin market is expected to benefit from rising demand in the semiconductor industry and supply disruptions in key producing regions [11]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to tightening supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo and increasing demand from battery technologies [13][14]. - **Lithium**: The lithium market may experience a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, despite short-term demand support from the battery sector [15][16]. - **Uranium**: Uranium prices are expected to recover due to limited supply and increased interest from investment funds [17]. - **Tungsten**: The tungsten market is likely to remain tight, supporting higher prices due to strong demand from emerging industries [18][19]. - **Rare Earths**: The demand for rare earth elements is projected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and the need for high-performance materials [20][21].