Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing a decline in demand, leading to increased inventory days and a drop in prices to 11.5 yuan/square meter, with four leading companies nearing breakeven profitability while others are deepening losses [2][3]. Supply and Demand - By 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to further polarize, requiring a reduction of 5,000 to 20,000 tons of domestic photovoltaic glass production to achieve supply-demand balance. Domestic demand for photovoltaic glass is projected to decline by approximately 23-36% due to weakened component demand [2][5]. - The total demand for photovoltaic glass is estimated to reach 150 GW, necessitating the allocation of 8,800 tons of capacity for direct sales overseas. Companies with overseas customer bases are expected to maintain relatively good operating rates, while those with limited export capabilities may face increased operational pressures and potential cash flow issues [2][5]. Price and Cost - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is expected to stabilize next year, with a projected annual average of 13-13.5 yuan/square meter, following a 15.83% year-on-year decline to 12.59 yuan/square meter this year. Cost reductions are anticipated due to oversupply of raw materials [2][30]. Profitability - Leading companies are expected to see an improvement in profit margins, while second-tier companies may continue to face downward pressure on profits. The net profit for leading companies is projected to remain above 3 yuan/square meter due to increased overseas shipments [3][5]. Industry Dynamics - The polarization of capacity utilization is deepening, with glass exports becoming a critical survival factor. Domestic photovoltaic glass demand is expected to decline significantly, while overseas demand is anticipated to grow, necessitating adjustments in domestic production [5][29]. - The industry is experiencing a significant increase in inventory days, with the average reaching 35.92 days by December, indicating a potential oversupply situation as domestic demand weakens [17][18]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have aimed to control the production capacity of photovoltaic glass, prohibiting new capacity additions and enforcing stricter regulations on pricing to prevent below-cost sales. This is expected to stabilize prices and reduce competitive pressures in the market [13][35][40].

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's economy is projected to grow at 4.7% in 2025, supported by a strong labor market and sustained consumer spending, despite external pressures from geopolitical factors affecting key exports [2][6]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Malaysian economy is expected to maintain resilience with a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5.5% set for the 13th Malaysia Plan (2026-2030), driven by sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and tourism [3][12]. - The unemployment rate has dropped to a ten-year low, contributing to robust consumer spending [2][6]. - The overnight policy rate (OPR) is likely to remain at 2.75% through the end of 2025 and early 2026, as current monetary policy supports economic growth [12][19]. Group 2: Capital Markets - The FBMKLCI index underperformed compared to regional markets in 2025, primarily due to weak earnings growth expectations and a lack of new tech IPOs [4][23]. - Despite the Malaysian ringgit appreciating by 8.8% against the US dollar in 2025, the market valuation remains below the ten-year average, indicating potential for upward movement [4][32]. - Foreign capital inflow may provide support for the market, as the ringgit's strength enhances the attractiveness of Malaysian assets [36][40]. Group 3: Investment Themes - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors driven by AI capital expenditure, subsidies, and policy initiatives, including: - **Electrical and Electronics**: The sector is expected to benefit from a doubling of electronic exports to 1 trillion ringgit by 2030, supported by the national semiconductor strategy [5][48]. - **Digital Infrastructure**: Major investments in data centers by tech giants are anticipated to boost demand in the power and construction sectors [5][48]. - **Modern Retail**: Government subsidy programs are expected to enhance consumer spending and support retail growth [5][48]. - **Tourism Services**: The 2026 Malaysia Tourism Year aims to attract 47 million visitors and generate 329 billion ringgit in tourism revenue, with government support for infrastructure and promotional activities [5][49].

Core Viewpoint - The home textile industry in China is transitioning from growth driven by wedding and real estate demands to a focus on daily replacement and quality upgrades, with online sales channels rapidly increasing their market share [2][4][5]. Industry Growth and Market Dynamics - The Chinese home textile market is projected to reach approximately 327.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a stable growth forecast of low single-digit percentages in the coming years [4][5]. - Daily replacement and quality upgrades are becoming the main drivers of demand, as the industry matures and consumer preferences shift [11][21]. - E-commerce sales are expected to rise from 14% in 2019 to 34% by 2024, highlighting the growing importance of online channels [12][4]. Consumer Behavior and Product Innovation - There is an increasing consumer focus on sleep health, which is driving demand for functional bedding products [21][22]. - Pillows are becoming a priority for consumers due to their lower price point and higher replacement frequency, facilitating market growth for innovative products [22][23]. - New brands, such as Atour, are capitalizing on this trend by offering functional sleep products and leveraging online marketing strategies [23][24]. Traditional Brands and Market Strategies - Established brands like Luolai and Mercury are responding to new market dynamics by launching functional sleep products and enhancing their marketing efforts [30][35]. - Traditional brands are beginning to adopt a "big product" strategy, focusing on fewer, high-impact items to drive sales growth [30][32]. - The supply chain capabilities of traditional brands are becoming increasingly important as they expand into higher-end products [37]. Competitive Landscape and Market Concentration - The market concentration in the home textile industry remains low, with the top five brands holding only 3.7% of the market share in 2024 [17][20]. - Atour has rapidly increased its market share from 0.1% in 2022 to approximately 0.7% in 2024, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [17][20]. - Traditional brands are gradually improving their market positions through enhanced online and offline channel strategies [20][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in consumption promotion policies towards supply-side measures, focusing on enhancing the supply of quality goods and services while also addressing demand-side strategies to stimulate consumption [2][5]. Group 1: Supply-Side Consumption Promotion - The central economic work conference in December highlighted the need to "expand the supply of quality goods and services" and "eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector" to unleash service consumption potential [2][5]. - Supply-side consumption promotion will focus on two main areas: removing restrictions in the consumption sector and increasing the supply of quality consumption [2][5]. - An estimated market scale of approximately 3.9 trillion yuan (around 3% of GDP) may be affected by policy adjustments in 2024, with a potential 0.5 percentage point increase in final consumption growth for every 10% improvement in these areas [2][18]. Group 2: Policy Evolution on Consumption Restrictions - Recent years have seen a progressive evolution of policies aimed at clearing consumption restrictions, starting from the 2018 guidelines that emphasized stimulating consumption potential through systemic mechanisms [4][5]. - The focus has shifted to administrative restrictions, with the 2020 central economic work conference calling for the orderly removal of certain administrative restrictions on consumption purchases [4][5]. - In 2025, the removal of restrictive measures in the consumption sector became a key policy direction, with multiple meetings emphasizing the need to clear unreasonable restrictions in areas such as automobiles and housing [5][11]. Group 3: Key Areas of Policy Changes - In the automotive sector, significant changes include the cancellation of purchase restrictions in Hainan and the increase of purchase quotas for carless families in cities like Beijing and Tianjin [5][8]. - The real estate sector has seen cities like Beijing and Shanghai relax purchase conditions and eliminate limits on suburban housing [5][8]. - Cultural policies have also evolved, with an increase in the number of game licenses issued and the simplification of approval processes for touring performances [6][8]. Group 4: Increasing Quality Consumption Supply - The emphasis on increasing the supply of quality consumption is evident in the October "14th Five-Year Plan" which calls for expanding the supply of quality goods and services [14][15]. - Investment in consumption infrastructure and service functions is crucial, with support for projects in education, healthcare, and cultural tourism to address public service gaps [15][18]. - The article outlines specific consumer markets projected to reach significant scales by 2024, including elderly products (54 trillion yuan), smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [16][19]. Group 5: Market Scale and Growth Projections - The total market scale for various consumption sectors is estimated at around 3.9 trillion yuan, with significant growth expected in inbound tourism and other sectors [18][19]. - Specific sectors such as high-end medical services and childcare are projected to grow substantially, with the high-end medical market expected to reach 556.7 billion yuan in 2023 [19][20]. - The article highlights the importance of aligning supply-side policies with consumer demand trends to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The AI is profoundly reshaping the demand for optical fibers and cables, pushing the industry supply-demand relationship into a new cycle, with a potential supply shortage expected in the next two years [2][34]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply has already led to price increases, with G.652.D fiber prices rising over 20% since early 2025, driven by AI demand for various fiber types that are occupying production capacity [2][6]. - Global demand and capacity have regional mobility, meaning that as overseas manufacturers supply North America, non-North American markets will also face supply shortages, with leading domestic companies having an export ratio of 30-50% [2][34]. - The global optical fiber demand is projected to reach 880 million core kilometers by 2027, with AI expected to account for 35% of the downstream demand for optical fibers and cables [4][34]. Market Trends - The optical fiber market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by the demand from data centers and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) applications, with the market for AI-driven optical fibers projected to reach $2.1 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of approximately 73% from 2024 to 2027 [12][34]. - The supply side is characterized by a cautious expansion attitude among manufacturers, with current global optical fiber production capacity estimated at around 850 million core kilometers, which may fall short of annual demand [35][36]. Emerging Fiber Types - New types of optical fibers, such as G.654.E and hollow-core fibers, are expected to see rapid growth due to their advantages in low latency and long-distance transmission, making them suitable for DCI applications [20][29]. - Specialty fibers are gaining traction as AI-driven computing clusters expand, with manufacturers accelerating research and development in this area to meet the increasing demand for high-performance communication [22][31]. Competitive Landscape - Leading companies with stable production capacity and advanced technology are expected to benefit first from the rising demand in the data center sector, as the supply landscape remains relatively stable in the short term [36][37]. - The market for specialty optical fibers is more concentrated than that for standard telecommunications fibers, allowing leading manufacturers to capture a larger share of the value [34][36].

2025年12月19日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》[1]（以下简称"《办法》"），对现行监管规则作系统性 整合升级，计划于2026年7月1日起施行。 （文章有删减，完整内容请见报告原文） Abstract 摘要 《办法》出台的背景和目的？ 本次《办法》的出台，旨在具体落实 保险业新"国十条" 强化资产负债联动监管的精神、解决行业当前存在的资产和负债管 理脱节、政策和程序不清晰等问题，同时为2026年保险业全面切换至新会计准则做好制度准备。新准则下保险公司净资产波动加剧，《办法》的推出有助 于建立起与新准则相适应的审慎管理机制，引导行业平稳完成新准则切换。 《办法》确立量化监管与监测双层指标体系： 1）明确监管指标，人身险聚焦有效久期缺口、综合投资收益覆盖率、净投资收益覆盖率、压力情景下流动 性覆盖率，财险则聚焦沉淀资金覆盖率、收入覆盖率及压力情景下流动性覆盖率；2）建立监测指标体系，如各类利差分析、修正久期缺口；3）优化指标 计算口径，将成本收益指标评价周期拉长至3-5年，引导公司长期经营。 细化治理架构与全流程要求。 在组织上，《办法》细化了保险公司董事会、高级管理层 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article forecasts the industry landscape and corporate competition strategies for 2026, emphasizing demand as the starting point for analysis, with recommendations for sectors including fiberglass, consumer building materials, glass, and cement [2] Group 1: Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is expected to maintain a favorable supply-demand balance, with a projected net increase in production of 400,000 to 500,000 tons by 2026, driven by high-end products like wind power yarn [6][10] - The high-end special fabric market is anticipated to continue its growth, with significant price increases expected for wind power yarn and potential price adjustments for ordinary yarn and electronic fabrics [5][7] - The industry is likely to see rational expansion with limited new capacity, as new entrants face challenges in achieving excess returns due to high initial costs [6][10] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is under pressure, with new construction expected to decline by 16% year-on-year in 2026, and completions down by 7% [3][12] - Positive signals are emerging, including price increases for waterproofing materials and gypsum boards, alongside a reduction in cost rates and easing of impairment risks [3][11] - The market is witnessing a consolidation phase where leading companies are expected to recover profitability, benefiting from improved demand and supply optimization [11][15] Group 3: Glass and Cement - The glass sector is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with supply reductions anticipated as companies respond to ongoing losses, particularly in the float glass segment [3][24] - Cement demand is projected to decline by 7% in 2026, with supply-side policies aimed at curbing overproduction expected to play a crucial role in market dynamics [27][28] - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in pricing as supply and demand begin to balance, aided by a decrease in coal prices which may alleviate profit pressures [28][25]

► 内部方面，重要会议后投资者较为关注经济基本面。 近期投资者对于经济基本面的关注度有所回升。11月经济数据相比10月继续边际走 缓，固定资产投资的同比降幅较大，社会零售消费增速受"以旧换新"政策高基数影响而回落，金融数据中M1同比增速在10月和11月连续下 行。近期金融及经济数据反映基本面回稳仍需稳增长政策支持。 影响市场的短期因素偏多，前期调整可能已接近尾声，逢低布局"跨年"行情。 我们近期发布的《 如何构建"稳市"监测体系？ 》，结合A股历 史经验教训及当前新形势，构建市场"顶部"判别方法论，判断一轮上涨行情的回调是否为阶段性顶部，关键在于市场上涨的底层逻辑是否被破 坏，若底层逻辑未变则更大概率为阶段调整。就本轮行情而言，去年"924"以来的宏观政策转向改变投资者悲观预期，为市场企稳回升的基 础，居民存款资金入市、低利率及"资产荒"以及监管层对资本市场发展的支持提供了良好的环境。我们在《 牛市成因之辩 》和2026年展望《 乘势笃行 》指出，上涨根本驱动力在于国际秩序和产业创新的叙事反转，两者推动中国资产实现重估，目前这两大底层逻辑并未动摇。A股市 场整体估值无论在全球横向对比，还是与大类资产对比仍然具 ...

中金研究 中国出海电商在性价比和运营效率上处于领先地位，在25年的外部压力测试中表现出较强韧性，看好中国出海电商平台未来在海外市场获得份额，以 及各平台的运营效率持续优化。 Abstract 外部扰动下，出海电商平台保持韧性。 25年以来，关税和小包免税政策的调整成为影响出海电商的主要矛盾，全球范围内对出海电商的监管趋严。在此 逆风下，我们测算25年出海电商GMV同增12%，其中四大中国出海电商平台GMV同增25%，中长期看，是否具备全球化能力，或成为电商平台发展的重 要分水岭。 本地化和分散化有效应对政策风险。 我们观察到主要出海平台在分散经营区域、增加海外仓履约方式、改进运营策略和推进半托管模式上均有系列动 作，展现出更强的经营韧性和抗风险能力。我们认为出海电商所面临的经营环境和海外政策扰动会持续，但当平台在具备了更强的本地化能力和分散化布 局后，有望降低极端情况对平台经营的影响，从而实现收入和利润稳健增长。 小包免税政策面临全球范围内的转向。 全球主要国家大都有一定价值量以下的小包裹豁免关税的海关政策，而出海电商也得以享受这一政策红利，以小 包直发的方式进入全球各国以豁免或降低关税或增值税。但随着中国出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent divergence between the strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) and the decline of the stock market, particularly in Hong Kong, raising questions about the underlying factors driving these trends [2][4][15]. Group 1: RMB Strength and Stock Market Divergence - The RMB has appreciated by 1.3% against the USD since early October, nearing the 7.0 mark, while the Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 15% from its peak [2][4]. - Historically, a strong RMB correlates positively with stock market performance, as it typically indicates foreign capital inflow and a favorable economic outlook [2][4][6]. - The recent divergence is attributed to different driving factors for the RMB and the stock market, suggesting that the traditional correlation may not apply in the current context [4][15]. Group 2: Historical Context and Analysis - The historical relationship between the RMB and the stock market has predominantly been one of alignment, with notable exceptions occurring only twice in the past: from March to June 2013 and from July 2021 to October 2022 [9][10]. - In both historical instances, the divergence was resolved either by the stock market aligning with the RMB or vice versa, influenced by policy interventions and economic fundamentals [10][12]. - The article emphasizes that the current divergence is rare and highlights the importance of growth and capital inflow as key pricing factors for both the RMB and the stock market [7][14]. Group 3: Current Economic Conditions - The recent RMB appreciation is primarily driven by a record trade surplus of $1.08 trillion and a weakening USD, rather than significant foreign capital inflows into the stock market [15][25]. - Domestic economic indicators show a weakening trend, with PMI below the growth threshold and negative growth in fixed asset investment, suggesting that the stock market's decline reflects underlying economic pressures [22][26]. - The article posits that the RMB's strength is more a result of external factors, such as the USD's performance and seasonal capital flows, rather than improvements in domestic economic conditions [25][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the divergence between the RMB and the stock market may persist, as the factors causing this divergence are not expected to change in the short term [28][29]. - The future trajectory of both the RMB and the stock market will depend on the direction of economic fundamentals and whether policy measures can effectively address the current economic challenges [31][36]. - A significant policy response aimed at stimulating domestic demand could potentially realign the RMB and stock market trends, but without such measures, the divergence may continue [36][37].