中金研究 美联储6月会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。官员们认为政策不确定性有所下降，但仍下调了增长预测，并抬高通胀 路径判断。点阵图保留年内两次降息的判断，但细节上边际变"鹰"，显示出美联储内部的谨慎观点[1]。鲍威尔对通 胀风险保持谨慎，并称没人对自己写下的利率路径有很强的信心。我们认为，美联储没有任何急于降息的打算，在 经济允许等待的情况下，决策者不会在通胀面前轻举妄动。我们维持此前观点，美联储下一次降息或在第四季度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 本次会议有几方面变化：首先， 货币政策声明显示，美联储认为伴随谈判推进，政策不确定性有所下降。 声明将5月 时的"经济前景不确定性进一步加剧"的表述修正为"经济前景不确定性消退但仍保持高位（diminished but remains elevated）"[2]，同时删除了上月"认为失业率上升与通胀率走高的风险已经加剧（the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen）[3]"的表述。这种表述修改反映出，美联储认为尽管政策前景仍然迷雾重重，但年内不确定 性风暴的峰值可能落在4月2日"解放日" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of performance benchmarks in the development of public funds, particularly focusing on active equity funds, and proposes adjustments to align benchmarks with actual investment strategies to enhance performance evaluation and management effectiveness [1][9]. Regulatory Guidance - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to strengthen the role of performance benchmarks, including clear mechanisms for setting, modifying, disclosing, and continuously evaluating benchmarks [11][13]. - A comprehensive performance evaluation system centered on fund investment returns is to be established, focusing on fund performance relative to benchmarks and investor returns [13][14]. - The floating fee rate trial will become standard, linking fees to relative performance to enhance alignment of interests between fund managers and investors [15]. Application Practice - Active equity funds predominantly use scale indices as performance benchmarks, with the CSI 300 and CSI 800 accounting for approximately 60% of the total number and scale of funds [16][18]. - Recent trends show a stabilization in holding deviations, while net value deviations have exhibited significant fluctuations, with a concerning percentage of funds projected to underperform benchmarks by 10% over three years [22][23]. Holding and Net Value Deviations - Increased holding deviations from benchmarks correlate with higher tracking errors, but the resulting relative returns vary depending on market conditions, with better performance in bull markets and increased risks in bear markets [25][26]. - The overall excess performance of active equity funds is closely tied to market conditions and style preferences, indicating that past performance may not accurately reflect management capabilities [29][30]. Benchmark Adjustment - Adjusting benchmarks to better align with fund characteristics can lead to clearer style positioning and more stable excess returns, as evidenced by the proposed shift to growth-oriented benchmarks [31][41]. - The adjustment of benchmarks has shown to reduce holding deviations and improve net value performance, with a significant decrease in the proportion of funds significantly underperforming benchmarks [39][40]. Risk Management Strategies - Strategies to manage benchmark deviation risks include optimizing portfolio exposure to industry and market capitalization, which can enhance performance during favorable market conditions [43][47]. - Combining active management with index tracking can simplify investment strategies while improving excess and absolute returns [7][43].

Group 1: Core Views - The report discusses the new cycle of valuation for China's technology innovation sector, driven by macroeconomic changes, industry trends, and market dynamics, particularly in the context of AI development and global trade restructuring [1][4][6]. Group 2: Market Trends - Since the beginning of the year, the technology innovation sector has shown structural opportunities, with the Tech 50 Index rising approximately 18% from its January high, particularly in AI, robotics, and semiconductors [2][17]. - The AI sector has demonstrated a spillover effect, positively impacting related fields such as innovative pharmaceuticals and defense industries [2][17]. - The market has exhibited rotation characteristics, with different sectors leading at various times, such as AI and robotics in early months and innovative pharmaceuticals gaining momentum in mid-year [2][18]. Group 3: Driving Factors - Continuous policy support for technology innovation has been observed, including financing support and capital market reforms, with a focus on AI and other frontier technologies [3][22][24]. - The DeepSeek technology has redefined the narrative around technology innovation, enhancing China's position in the global tech landscape and potentially boosting GDP growth through AI advancements [4][28][34]. - Tariff impacts on technology companies are expected to be limited, with a trend towards domestic substitution and international expansion [5][31][32]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The AI sector is entering a new phase of commercialization, with significant advancements in model performance and application across various industries [9][10]. - High-end manufacturing is experiencing marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with increased capital expenditures in sectors like batteries and consumer electronics [10]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from policy optimization and international recognition, with a notable increase in overseas licensing deals [11][12]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The valuation of technology innovation companies has room for improvement, with a notable increase in investor interest and trading activity in the sector [12][13]. - The correlation between A-shares and the RMB exchange rate suggests that a favorable currency environment could enhance the performance of Chinese stocks [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rural revitalization in understanding contemporary China's economic and social development, highlighting the need for resource optimization and the integration of urban resources into rural areas [2][5][7]. Group 1: Rural Revitalization and Economic Development - Rural revitalization should align with China's overall economic development, focusing on activating rural resources such as land, labor, and public services to create social wealth and increase farmers' income [5]. - The integration of urban resources into rural areas can be achieved through various means, including fiscal measures to provide public services rather than solely developing industries [6]. Group 2: Unique Advantages of Zhejiang in Rural Revitalization - Zhejiang province is at the forefront of rural revitalization due to historical factors, rapid development of private enterprises post-reform, and a government supportive of non-agricultural industries [7]. - The geographical advantages of Zhejiang, including proximity to major economic hubs and rich tourism resources, have facilitated the growth of rural industries such as hospitality and cultural tourism [7].

国际货币秩序重构的本质是什么？ 现行国际货币体系仍是美元体系，截至2024年，美元在全球储备货币占比接近60%。我们并不认为现行的美元体系要 崩塌，国际货币秩序加速重构本质是美元资产的安全性出了问题。从美元当前的国际储备地位的三大支点来看： 1）第一是交易媒介和计价单位， 截至 2024Q2的最新可得数据，美国GDP按照购买力平价占全球15%，但是56%的全球贸易是以美元结算的。美元在贸易中的广泛使用，赋予了美元强大的网络 效应，这一优势地位短期内较难颠覆。 2）第二是在离岸市场上，美元是重要的融资货币。 当前全球离岸融资中美元融资占比在60%左右，存量规模高达 16万亿美元。金融危机之前，离岸欧元曾和离岸美元同步迅速扩张，但金融危机之后，离岸美元在短暂下降后恢复增长，美元的融资主导地位得以进一步 强化。 3）第三是在岸市场上，美元美债一度是最重要的安全资产。 过去全球投资者对美国资产一直保持旺盛需求，但我们认为这一点正在加速发生变 化。美元资产安全性下降，体现在以下三个方面： ► 首先是美元资产之间的相关性转正，无法在内部有效地分散风险。 一般来说当风险资产下跌的时候，安全资产不应该跟随下跌，这样才能起到避 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mobile optical industry is expected to recover from its low point in 2023, with a market size projected to reach approximately $26 billion in 2023 and $38.2 billion by 2026, driven by technological upgrades and increased market capacity [1][11]. Group 1: Technological Upgrades - The mobile optical industry is entering a phase of accelerated technological penetration, with advancements such as large-area CIS, glass-plastic hybrid lenses, periscope structures, and variable apertures [2]. - The proportion of large-area CIS is expected to continue increasing, with flagship models adopting one-inch CIS, which will enhance module value and entry barriers [2]. - The adoption of periscope telephoto lenses is projected to rise significantly, with penetration rates for Apple and domestic Android devices expected to reach 50% and 11% respectively by 2026, creating a potential $2 billion incremental space for Apple alone [2][11]. - Innovations such as variable apertures and continuous zoom lenses are nearing widespread application, enhancing the overall imaging capabilities of mobile devices [2][40]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The mobile optical market is anticipated to grow by 21%, 15%, and 7% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reaching $38.2 billion by 2026, driven by product upgrades and a recovery in profit margins [3][11]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a more rational environment, with improved profitability expected due to reduced price competition and a focus on high-end products [3][54]. - Domestic leading manufacturers are likely to experience a stronger recovery in profitability compared to the industry average, benefiting from higher-value products and enhanced competitive advantages [3][56]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The mobile optical industry experienced a downturn from 2021 to 2023 due to weak terminal demand and intensified competition, leading to a decline in revenue and gross margins [5]. - The market is showing signs of recovery in 2024, with a moderate rebound in demand and a stabilization in the average number of cameras per device [10]. - The global smartphone lens shipment is expected to grow by 4% in 2024, with a continued upward trend projected for 2025 and 2026 [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic growth in May remains stable, but the structure shows signs of divergence, with retail growth accelerating due to external factors, while fixed asset investment and real estate sales continue to weaken [1][8]. Macro - External factors support retail growth, with tariff reductions not fully reflected in May data, leading to a slight decline in industrial value-added growth to 5.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - May's industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% from 6.1% in April, with manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing also experiencing declines [2]. - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in 2024, driven by trade-in policies and early promotions [3][8]. - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% in the first five months, with declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments [4][5]. - Real estate sales continue to weaken, with a 3.3% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 6.0% decline in sales value in May [6][24]. Strategy - The economic data for May indicates a need for further policy support to stimulate demand, with a focus on stable recovery in the second half of the year [8][20]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong dividend yields and growth potential, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, and consumer sectors [8]. Real Estate - The real estate market shows continued weakness, with new housing sales declining and investment pressures persisting [24][25]. - The government is expected to enhance policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rural areas in understanding contemporary Chinese economic and social development, highlighting the role of financialization and digitalization in transforming rural life and the evolving concept of nostalgia in the context of urbanization [2][5][7]. Group 1: Rural Financialization - Financialization has accelerated the migration of farmers to cities, allowing more families to enjoy urban life and public services, while also leading to a semi-urbanized state in rural households [5]. Group 2: Digitalization in Rural Life - Digital technology has significantly impacted rural areas, primarily through industrial digitalization and changes in sales channels, as well as digital governance via platforms like WeChat groups, leading to a blurred concept of villages [6]. - Digital platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou have become important for rural residents, especially elderly farmers, serving as significant sources of cultural meaning and spiritual life [6]. Group 3: Nostalgia in the Context of Urbanization - Nostalgia has expanded to encompass the entire society, with 1.4 billion people experiencing a sense of longing for their hometowns, shifting from being an elite sentiment to a common experience among those who have left their hometowns [7]. - The role of nostalgia as a spiritual anchor is crucial for maintaining rural order and social stability, serving as a deep cultural foundation and value concept [7].

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has shown strong growth since its inception in 2021, with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan and 66 projects listed, making it the largest in the Asia-Pacific region [2][7][11] - The market is currently in a policy dividend period, supported by favorable regulations and increasing investor recognition, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [6][4] - The investment attractiveness of REITs is gradually increasing, with a rebound in secondary market valuations and a year-to-date return of 17.4% as of June 13, 2025 [14][4] Market Development Review - The market has benefited from progressive policies, including the issuance of the National Development and Reform Commission's 1014 document, which has laid a foundation for sustainable growth [6][2] - New asset types, such as data centers and senior living facilities, are gaining traction, with significant oversubscription rates for recent projects, indicating strong market demand [7][11] - The issuance of holding-type real estate ABS has reached 13.603 billion yuan, contributing to the development of a multi-tiered REITs market [11][14] Future Market Outlook - The expansion of asset types and the acceleration of initial offerings and expansions are expected to enhance the market ecosystem, providing diverse investment options for investors [25][26] - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is deemed necessary to cater to varying risk preferences and asset development stages, covering the entire lifecycle from cultivation to exit [27][28] - Increasing the diversity of the investor base, including public funds and foreign capital, is essential for enhancing market liquidity and depth [29][4] Investment Strategy - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage," the REITs market is viewed positively for the second half of the year, although valuation risks should be monitored as the market valuation center rises [4][37] - Strategies such as primary market participation, dividend trading, and expansion gaming are recommended for investors to optimize returns [42][46][49] - The market's performance is expected to be influenced by new issuances and unlockings in the second half of the year, with a total of 28 projects involving 26.8 billion yuan set to unlock [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the opening of a new path for "H+A" listings, highlighting the deepening of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong connection and the facilitation of dual listings for companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2][11]. Group 1: Policy and Market Impact - The recent policy changes aim to enhance the financial, technological, and data empowerment of the real economy, allowing companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to also list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2]. - The new regulations are expected to strengthen the synergy between the Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges, promoting a two-way connection between A-share and H-share markets [8][9]. - The policy is anticipated to attract high-quality companies from Hong Kong to list in A-shares, thereby increasing the representation of emerging industries in the A-share market [8][9]. Group 2: Potential Companies for Dual Listings - Currently, there are 249 companies from the Greater Bay Area listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with only 27 achieving dual listings [4]. - Approximately 50% of the Greater Bay Area companies are in new economy sectors, with significant representation from consumer goods, information technology, and healthcare [4]. - Out of 1,593 companies in the Greater Bay Area, 436 and 910 are expected to meet the financial standards for the main board and the growth enterprise market, respectively [5]. Group 3: Historical Performance of H+A Listings - Historical data shows that companies returning from Hong Kong to A-shares have generally performed well, with average price increases of 7.0%, 18.6%, 19.9%, and 19.6% over various time frames post-listing [10]. - The performance of corresponding Hong Kong stocks has been weaker, indicating a potential short-term capital impact [10]. - The structural advantages of the Greater Bay Area are expected to become more pronounced, enhancing investment attractiveness for companies returning to the A-share market [10]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the new policy will facilitate more companies from the Greater Bay Area to enter the A-share market, further deepening the synergy between Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges [11]. - The current market environment may favor certain companies in the Greater Bay Area, particularly in sectors like new consumption and biotechnology, enhancing their investment appeal [11].