Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on the global market, particularly the erosion of confidence in the US dollar as a safe asset, leading to a consensus on "de-dollarization" [1][2]. Group 1: Relationship Between Dollar and US Stocks - The relationship between the US dollar and US stocks is not linear; a weaker dollar does not necessarily lead to a decline in stock prices, and vice versa [4][12]. - Historical data shows that the performance of US stocks is more closely tied to domestic fundamentals rather than the dollar's strength, indicating that a weak dollar can coexist with strong stock performance [4][12]. - The article highlights that the current consensus on "de-dollarization" faces challenges, including overly crowded expectations and a lack of clear short-term guidance [2][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Analysis - Since the 1970s, the correlation between the dollar and US stocks has been complex, with instances where a weak dollar coincided with rising stock prices, such as during the Plaza Accord in 1985 [17][18]. - The article emphasizes that the dollar's weakness often reflects capital outflows from the bond market rather than the stock market, as US stocks are more closely linked to private sector credit and growth [24][12]. - The analysis suggests that the dollar's current weakness may not significantly impact US stocks, as the latter's fundamentals remain strong [57][60]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for the second half of the year indicates that US assets, particularly stocks, may outperform due to a recovery in the US credit cycle and potential positive catalysts such as tax cuts and interest rate reductions [61][62]. - The article predicts that the dollar may experience short-term fluctuations but could see a slight rebound in the fourth quarter, while the S&P 500 index is expected to stabilize around 6000 to 6200 points [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid penetration of generative AI across various industries, highlighting the integration of AI into digital infrastructure, B-end software, and C-end applications, while analyzing overseas AI application progress, penetration speed, and future trends [1]. Group 1: AI Application Integration - AI is being embedded across multiple scenarios, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency. Key areas include office automation, programming assistance, customer relationship management, and advertising [3]. - The integration of AI into various verticals requires users to train or build applications tailored to their needs, leading to a trend towards multi-agent construction and customized agents [3]. - High-quality scenario data is crucial for creating valuable AI applications, emphasizing the importance of data integration, governance, and analysis [3]. Group 2: Bottlenecks in AI Application Penetration - Most enterprises are currently in the exploratory development phase of AI deployment, resulting in low returns on investment [3]. - Key challenges to improving AI application penetration include optimizing computing costs, enhancing model accuracy and scenario integration, and ensuring AI applications meet customer ROI expectations [3]. Group 3: Future Trends in AI Development - Investment opportunities are seen in AI infrastructure, particularly in cloud migration, data governance, and cybersecurity [4]. - The trend towards multi-agent construction and deployment is expected to continue, with a focus on extracting scene value and user needs [4]. - The integration of AI with advertising is anticipated to exceed market expectations, driven by advancements in AI capabilities [4]. Group 4: Overseas AI Application Progress - Major overseas tech companies are actively engaging in large model and AI construction, focusing on model training, cloud infrastructure, database construction, and AI integration across various sectors [6]. Group 5: AI in Programming - The penetration rate of AI in programming is high, with tools like Cursor, GitHub Copilot, and Google Jules enhancing productivity through features like code auto-completion and error correction [16]. - Future trends in AI programming are expected to focus on asynchronous tasks and real-time synchronous assistance [18]. Group 6: AI in Customer Relationship Management - AI is enhancing CRM systems by integrating data and uncovering potential customers, with notable players including Salesforce and Microsoft [20]. - Salesforce's Agentforce leverages a data cloud and reasoning engine to provide real-time data to agents, enhancing customer interactions [21]. Group 7: AI in Advertising - The shift towards performance advertising is being accelerated by AI, improving ad targeting, automated placements, and content generation capabilities [27]. - AI's ability to process large datasets and generate personalized ads is expected to enhance advertising effectiveness [29]. Group 8: AI ASIC Development - The trend towards using AI ASICs in data centers is expected to grow, driven by the need for cost-effective and energy-efficient solutions [34]. - Major tech companies are advancing their proprietary AI chip development, with Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft leading the way [62].

Core Viewpoint - The rental housing REITs market is experiencing strong demand resilience, with ongoing supply pressures in the short term, driven by urbanization trends and demographic factors [4][10]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for rental housing remains robust, supported by net population inflows into major cities and extended rental periods due to delayed marriage and high housing prices [4][8]. - The supply of affordable rental housing is accelerating, with a cumulative construction of 7.27 million units expected by the end of 2024, achieving 84% of the "14th Five-Year Plan" target [4][20]. - The rental market is expected to face short-term supply pressures, particularly in markets with concentrated supply releases, although affordable rental housing is anticipated to outperform the overall rental market [29][30]. Group 2: Evaluating Rental Housing Operational Capability - The operational capability of rental housing can be assessed through asset quality, operational efficiency, and financial metrics [5][45]. - Asset quality considers project location, supply-demand dynamics, and property management capabilities [45][46]. - Operational efficiency focuses on leasing capabilities and tenant management, while financial metrics emphasize cash flow stability [45][49]. Group 3: Outlook for Rental Housing REITs Market Development - The rental housing REITs market is expected to expand through new issuances and capital increases, supported by a substantial stock of rental housing and private fund exit demands [6][52]. - The low-interest-rate environment and "asset scarcity" are likely to sustain the appeal of rental housing REITs as quality investment assets [6][54]. - As of June 18, 2025, the dividend yield for rental housing REITs reached 2.6%, with a narrowing spread compared to the ten-year government bond yield [54][57].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual characteristics of the current dollar cycle, highlighting its resilience and divergence from historical patterns, suggesting that the dollar may have entered a downward cycle since 2025 due to structural changes in the U.S. economy and global dynamics [1][46]. Historical Review of Dollar Cycles - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, the dollar has experienced three major appreciation cycles, with significant increases in the DXY index during each period [2][5]. - The current dollar appreciation cycle began in 2008, lasting 17 years and resulting in a 40% increase, marking it as the longest cycle since the Bretton Woods system's dissolution [3][5]. Current Characteristics of the Dollar Cycle - The dollar's peak values have shown a downward trend over the years, indicating a decreasing relative strength of the U.S. economy globally [6]. - The current cycle exhibits three unusual divergences: a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves, a lack of impact from expanding fiscal and trade deficits, and a strong dollar despite rising inflation in the U.S. [7][10][12]. Threefold Analysis Framework - The dollar's exchange rate is fundamentally influenced by the relative performance of the U.S. economy compared to other major economies [15]. - Monetary policy from the Federal Reserve significantly impacts the dollar's strength, with tight monetary policies historically supporting dollar appreciation [20]. - Capital flows are closely linked to the dollar index, with geopolitical factors also playing a crucial role in influencing these flows [21]. Feedback Mechanisms - The dollar's appreciation has asymmetric effects on the global economy, increasing financing costs for other countries while benefiting the U.S. economy [21][22]. - Positive feedback mechanisms exist where dollar appreciation leads to worsening debt burdens for other economies, further driving capital flows into the U.S. [22]. Current Trends and Future Outlook - Since 2025, there are signs that the dollar may be entering a downward cycle due to weakening relative advantages of the U.S. economy and declining risk appetite for dollar assets [34][38]. - The structural changes in the U.S. asset and liability landscape suggest a strong motivation for the U.S. to seek dollar depreciation to manage its growing net liabilities [35][36]. - Market sentiment is shifting, with a notable decrease in net long positions on the dollar, indicating a growing bearish outlook [38][40]. Conclusion - The current dollar cycle is characterized by unprecedented features, with the potential for a downward trend driven by both domestic and international factors, including the competitive landscape in technology and economic policies [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving regulatory landscape for stablecoins, highlighting recent legislative developments in the US and Hong Kong, and their implications for the stablecoin market and the global monetary system [2][7]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - In May 2023, the US Senate advanced the GENIUS Act, which was officially passed on June 17, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins [2]. - Hong Kong's Legislative Council passed the Stablecoin Ordinance on May 21, 2023, introducing a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers, set to take effect on August 1, 2023 [2]. - The EU also enacted the MiCAR regulation in 2023, further contributing to the regulatory framework for stablecoins [2]. Characteristics and Functions of Stablecoins - Stablecoins maintain price stability by pegging to other assets, typically fiat currencies, distinguishing them from more volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [3]. - The current global stablecoin market is approximately $261.5 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for about 85% of this total [3]. Issues Faced by Stablecoins - The stablecoin market has faced challenges, including de-pegging events and bankruptcies due to a lack of regulation [5][6]. - Notable incidents include the collapse of TerraUSD in 2022 and the bankruptcy of FTX, which have contributed to a decline in stablecoin market size [6]. Impact of Recent Legislation - The GENIUS Act introduces regulations on market access, asset backing, and disclosure requirements for stablecoin issuers, aiming to mitigate risks of de-pegging [7]. - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance also addresses licensing, reserve assets, and risk management, balancing financial stability and innovation [7]. Influence on the Global Monetary System - Stablecoins could reinforce the dollar's reserve status, as most stablecoins are dollar-pegged, facilitating cross-border payments and potentially increasing demand for dollar-denominated assets [8]. - However, the emergence of non-dollar-pegged stablecoins could challenge the dollar's dominance in the international monetary system [9]. Potential Risks and Market Impact - The growth of stablecoins may disrupt traditional banking, affecting demand for demand deposits despite regulations limiting interest payments on stablecoins [10]. - The inflow and outflow of funds into stablecoins could impact monetary policy transmission and create asset scarcity in non-bank financial institutions [10]. Affected Entities - The development of stablecoins may impact various sectors, including bank IT service providers, telecom operators, cryptocurrency exchanges, and financial institutions facilitating stablecoin transactions [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and future prospects of the REITs market in China, particularly focusing on the performance and strategies of China Resources Commercial REIT, highlighting its significance in the commercial real estate sector and its long-term vision for sustainable growth [2][5][11]. Group 1: Market Overview - Since the launch of the first public REITs products in June 2021, the market has seen continuous growth in scale and diversification of asset types, attracting a wider range of investors [2]. - The commercial REITs sector, particularly China Resources Commercial REIT, is recognized as one of the largest and highest-quality assets in the consumer REITs category [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance capital operations through continuous fundraising, allowing for orderly exits from mature projects to reinvest in new projects, thereby increasing asset management scale and operational efficiency [5][11]. - The future of Qingdao MixC is optimistic, with the local GDP nearing 1.7 trillion yuan and a retail sales growth of 4.2%, indicating a strong consumer market [6]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - The operational strategy for Qingdao MixC focuses on three main areas: 1. Innovation in space operations to enhance commercial atmosphere and asset value [7]. 2. Brand innovation with an annual store opening rate exceeding 25%, maintaining a strong market position [8]. 3. Increasing foot traffic and membership, with a 9% year-on-year growth in foot traffic and membership surpassing 1.5 million [9]. Group 4: Asset Expansion and Selection - As of the end of 2024, the company has 92 shopping centers with an asset management scale close to 300 billion yuan, focusing on core cities and regions [10]. - The selection of assets for expansion will consider regulatory compliance, operational maturity, and project development cycles, ensuring a diversified asset portfolio [10]. Group 5: Market Expectations - The company expresses confidence in the future of consumer REITs, emphasizing the need for optimized mechanisms to enhance fundraising efficiency and market expansion [11][12]. - There is an expectation for a more diverse investor base to increase market activity and liquidity in the consumer REITs sector [12]. - Continuous improvement in asset management efficiency is seen as crucial for the long-term stable development of China Resources Commercial REIT [13][14].

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 银行 Industry 稳定币对金融体系的潜在影响 >>点击图片查看全文<< 稳定币是一类币值锚定特定资产（通常为法定货币）的加密货币，是连接去中心化金融系统（Defi）和传统金融体系的桥梁，也是去中心化金融系统 （Defi）的重要基础设施。近期美国通过稳定币法案，成为美国首个为稳定币建立监管框架的法案，填补了这一领域的监管空白。时隔仅两天，中国 香港也通过了功能类似的稳定币法案，有助于中国香港参与全球数字金融中心竞争，巩固国际金融中心地位。稳定币是传统金融体系和去中心化金融 体系（Defi）之间的"桥梁"，继欧盟之后，美国和中国香港都推出了针对稳定币的监管框架，成为加密货币融入主流金融体系的重要一步。去中心化 金融迎来发展机遇的同时或将加深与传统金融体系的融合，亦对全球金融体系带来新的挑战与风险，我们尝试分析潜在影响。 图表：加密资产初具货币和金融体系的特征 资料来源：中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.06.15 | 林英奇 周基明等 02 策略 Strategy 缪延亮：货币秩序重构下的资产变局 >>点击图片查看全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and lifecycle of IPs (Intellectual Properties) in the global market, particularly focusing on the success of domestic潮玩 (trendy toys) leaders like Labubu, and analyzes the operational strategies of world-class IPs such as Hello Kitty, Pokémon, and Mickey Mouse to identify potential investment opportunities and risks in the IP industry [1][4]. Global IP Market Overview - The global IP toy market is projected to reach 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 8% from 2024 to 2029, while the Chinese IP toy market is expected to grow to 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 17.2% during the same period [2][13]. - The concentration of the global IP licensing market has increased, with the top five companies holding a market share of 41% and the top ten at 54% as of 2024, indicating a trend towards market consolidation [2][21]. IP Lifecycle Model - The IP lifecycle is divided into four stages: birth, breakthrough, sedimentation, and stabilization, with each stage requiring different operational strategies to ensure longevity and profitability [3][30]. - Successful IPs often exhibit a high degree of adaptability and resource allocation, which are crucial for navigating through different lifecycle stages [3][30]. Case Studies of World-Class IPs - Hello Kitty, Mickey Mouse, and Pokémon have each experienced distinct lifecycle phases, with their peak GMV values reaching approximately 3.8 billion, 10 billion, and 12 billion USD respectively, showcasing their commercial viability and cultural significance [4][52]. - The commercial success of these IPs is influenced by factors such as brand inclusivity, geographic reach, and diverse monetization strategies, which can provide valuable insights for the domestic潮玩 industry [4][52]. Operational Strategies - Hello Kitty's operational strategy has evolved through various phases, including initial expansion, global breakout, adjustment periods, and digital transformation, highlighting the importance of adaptability in maintaining relevance [53][56]. - Mickey Mouse has maintained a stable brand presence through consistent content updates and a strong licensing model, benefiting from its deep-rooted cultural significance in the U.S. [57][59]. - Pokémon has leveraged continuous content innovation and a broad commercial ecosystem, including games, merchandise, and media, to sustain its popularity and revenue growth [60][62]. Conclusion - The analysis of these IPs illustrates that a well-structured operational strategy, combined with an understanding of market dynamics and consumer preferences, is essential for the longevity and profitability of IPs in the competitive landscape [3][4][30].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasizes the importance of financial openness and cooperation in the context of global economic changes, focusing on high-quality development and the restructuring of the international monetary system [2][3]. Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, discussed four key areas for reforming global financial governance and announced eight financial policy measures aimed at addressing the instability of the current dollar-dominated international monetary system [2]. - Proposed directions for reform include reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and promoting a competitive environment among a few strong sovereign currencies, with the RMB recognized as the third-largest payment currency globally [2]. - Emphasis on diversifying the cross-border payment system and enhancing interoperability among payment systems, alongside the accelerated application of emerging technologies in cross-border payments [2]. Group 2: Financial Openness - The Director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau, Li Yunzhe, highlighted the vast potential for high-level financial openness in China, particularly in consumer finance, technology finance, green finance, pension finance, and wealth management [3]. - The government plans to promote high-level financial openness through institutional reforms, optimizing the business environment, and strengthening the financial safety net [3][4]. Group 3: Capital Market Reforms - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, outlined five new measures for capital market reform aimed at enhancing the market's role in supporting technological innovation and the real economy [5]. - Key measures include deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, enhancing the synergy between equity and debt markets, and fostering long-term capital [5][6]. - The focus on creating a more open and inclusive capital market ecosystem, including optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and expanding the range of products available for foreign investment [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The forum's positive policy direction is expected to enhance the resilience of the A-share market and improve the quality of listed companies, making A-shares more attractive to investors [6]. - Key investment areas identified include artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on fundamental analysis, valuation, and market sentiment [7].

Core Viewpoint - CICC Global Institute (CGI) serves as a new type of think tank under CICC, focusing on public policy research and decision-making in China, while also engaging in international policy discussions and providing recommendations for the development of China's financial and capital markets [1][7]. Group 1: Conference Agenda - The conference features a series of sessions including a welcome speech by Dr. Peng Wensheng, Chief Economist of CICC, and keynote speeches from various experts in rural economy and social sciences [2][3]. - The agenda includes thematic roundtables discussing urban-rural labor market changes and the equalization of basic public services in rural areas, featuring prominent scholars and practitioners [3]. Group 2: CICC Global Institute's Role - CGI aims to build capabilities and teams to research significant long-term issues in the Chinese and global economy, finance, and capital markets, addressing major topics that impact national and public welfare [7]. - The institute provides services through research consulting, thematic forums, international exchanges, and a series of lectures aimed at government, enterprises, and related institutions [7].