证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 利润率提振盈利改善，企业温和去库 ——4 月工业企业利润点评 库存方面，名义、实际库存小幅回落 考虑价格因素，4 月 PPI 同比-2.7%、拖累较 3 月继续扩大，剔除 PPI 后的实际 库存增速 6.6%、略低于 3 月的 6.7%，实际库存增速小幅回落。外部关税影响 不确定之下，企业合理控制库存水平，生产与补库节奏相应放缓。与同期相比， 存货周转、应收账款回款依然偏慢，但较前月继续边际改善。 ❖ 总结：综合来看，4 月规模以上工业企业利润单月同比升至 2.9%，比 3 月继 续改善。4 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大至-2.7%、价格拖累依然突出，数量因素成为 单月利润继续改善的原因。一是"以旧换新"政策效果继续释放，二是出口端 保持韧性，转口贸易需求对制造业生产有一定支撑，三是单位营收费用率继续 压降，利润率延续改善。行业方面，中游份额抬升明显、下游份额小幅回落， 而上游盈利延续拖累。整体看，工业企业"量好于价"特征延续。 往后看，中美贸易谈判阶段性缓和，高频指向新一轮"抢出口"效应已启动， 前期受关税政策扰动短暂积压的订单需求，或在 5-6 月豁免期内集中释放、出 货 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 62.68, compared to the current price of HKD 39.5 [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the marketing and sales SaaS sector, with a strong focus on AI+SaaS integration, which is expected to drive rapid growth [8][11]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the enterprise SaaS market, driven by digital transformation trends, with the market size projected to reach HKD 745 billion by 2027 [8][11]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product line, including T Cloud and Zhenke, to address various customer needs in marketing and sales [22][50]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 1,559 million in 2024 to HKD 3,848 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 31.1% [4][11]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with a net profit of HKD 27 million, and further increase to HKD 201 million by 2027 [4][11]. - The average PS ratio for comparable companies in the AI+SaaS segment is estimated at 8.55x, leading to a valuation of HKD 124.23 billion for this segment [3][11]. Business Model and Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest marketing and sales SaaS solution provider in China, with a CAGR of 39.1% in SaaS revenue from 2020 to 2024 [8][15]. - The AI+SaaS business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 41.21% from 2019 to 2024 [28][11]. - The company has a strong direct sales team, which accounts for nearly 90% of its AI+SaaS revenue, and is expanding its channel partner network [32][11]. Product Offerings - The company offers a modular SaaS product design, allowing for flexibility and customization, with T Cloud serving small to medium-sized enterprises and Zhenke targeting large enterprises [22][50]. - T Cloud includes 89 functional modules, enabling clients to customize their marketing strategies effectively [41][50]. - Zhenke provides a comprehensive sales management solution with 159 functional modules, focusing on enhancing sales efficiency for large enterprises [50][56]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of the enterprise SaaS market, with the Chinese SaaS market expected to exceed HKD 1,500 billion by 2027, driven by digitalization and AI integration [8][11]. - The global AI Agent market is projected to grow from USD 5.29 billion in 2024 to USD 216.8 billion by 2035, indicating a significant opportunity for the company to leverage AI capabilities [8][11].

Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Traditional pricing models for gold have lost effectiveness, with actual interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations failing to explain gold price movements from 2022 to 2025[2] - The GIORI index has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating market expectations of a global order reconstruction that surpass traditional cyclical views[5] - Gold prices have surged over 100% from $1,500 per ounce in early 2020 to over $3,000 by 2025, challenging market expectations and traditional financial models[12] Group 2: Drivers of Global Order Reconstruction - Central banks' gold purchases reached a 50-year high, with net purchases of 1,080 tons in 2022, 1,051 tons in 2023, and 1,045 tons in 2024, significantly exceeding the average of 500 tons per year in the 2010s[3] - Geopolitical risks have escalated, with conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict driving up gold prices as a safe-haven asset[3] - The pressure on the US dollar system is increasing, with the federal deficit projected to reach 6.6% of GDP in 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt and prompting a shift towards gold[3] Group 3: GIORI Index Insights - The GIORI index quantifies the unexplained volatility in gold prices, reflecting market expectations of non-traditional risks related to monetary diversification and geopolitical tensions[4] - Historical peaks of the GIORI index occurred during significant geopolitical events, such as the late 1970s and the 2010-2011 financial crisis, indicating a correlation with global market skepticism towards the dollar[5] - The GIORI index shows a strong correlation with the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) during specific periods, highlighting its relevance in assessing geopolitical risks[5]

证券研究报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 医药生物 | 2025年5月28日 干细胞疗法：政策扶持，研发提速，产业迎来发展机遇 华创医药首席分析师 郑辰 华创医药高级分析师 高初蕾 执业编号：S0360520110002 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070002 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 干细胞疗法：从临床逐渐走向商业化 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 干细胞疗法方兴未艾：干细胞凭借其多向分化潜能和自我更新能力，在再生医学、疾病治疗等领域展现一定治疗潜力，为免疫性 疾病、心脑血管疾病、神经退行性疾病等难治性疾病提供了新的治疗希望，成为生物医药领域的重要发展方向。 Market.US预计 全球市场规模将从2025年的170亿美元增长至2030年的330亿美元（CAGR 14%），前瞻产业研究院预计中国市场规模2026年 达325亿元。 • 中美相继迎来干细胞药品商业化元年：2025年中美进入干细胞疗法商业化关键阶段，2024年底美国FDA批准首款MSCs药物 （M ...

转债市场日度跟踪 20250527 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债多数下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.24%、上证综指环比下降 0.18%、深证成 指环比下降 0.61%、创业板指环比下降 0.68%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.52%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.34%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 558.54 亿元，环比 增长 3.11%；万得全 A 总成交额为 10241.23 亿元，环比减少 0.94%；沪深两市 主力净流出 146.65 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.60bp 至 1.73%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 118.05 元，环比昨日下降 0.28%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.04 元，环比 下降 0.41%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 109.65 元，环比下降 0.16%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 119.56 元，环比下降 0.30%。从转债收盘价分布情况看，130 元以 上高价券个数占比 21.19%，较昨日环比下降 1.48pct；占比变化最大的区间为 110-120（包含 120 ...

证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 以"量"获"利"——4月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 * 4月工业企业利润数据:利润增长加快 4月,根据统计局数据,全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0%,较 3 月 份加快 0.4个百分点。库存方面,截至今年4月,库存同比 3.9%,前值为 4.2%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看,量强价弱。PPI 同比,4 月同比为-2.7%,3 月为 -2.5%。工业增加值4月增速为6.1%,3月为7.7%;收入端4月增速为 2.64%, 3月为4.42%。利润率方面,4月为5.38%,去年同期(可比口径)为 5.36%。 利润率拆分来看,4月毛利率为 14.0%,去年同期为 14.2%;费用率 7.85%, 去年同期为 8.08%;其他损益收入比为 0.75%,去年同期为 0.76%。 分行业来看,4月,采矿业增速为-30.77%,前值为-26.03%;制造业增速为 10.96%,前值为 11.92%;电热气水增速为 1.49%,前值为-6.13%。制造业内 发观研究 宏观快评 2025年05月27日 华创证券研究所 (一)工业整体:"量"改善带动利润改善 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66 ...

4 月，根据统计局数据，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0%，较 3 月 份加快 0.4 个百分点。库存方面，截至今年 4 月，库存同比 3.9%，前值为 4.2%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看，量强价弱。PPI 同比，4 月同比为-2.7%，3 月为 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 以"量"获"利"——4 月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 ❖ 4 月工业企业利润数据：利润增长加快 -2.5%。工业增加值 4 月增速为 6.1%，3 月为 7.7%；收入端 4 月增速为 2.64%， 3 月为 4.42%。利润率方面，4 月为 5.38%，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.36%。 利润率拆分来看，4 月毛利率为 14.0%，去年同期为 14.2%；费用率 7.85%， 去年同期为 8.08%；其他损益收入比为 0.75%，去年同期为 0.76%。 分行业来看，4 月，采矿业增速为-30.77%，前值为-26.03%；制造业增速为 10.96%，前值为 11.92%；电热气水增速为 1.49%，前值为-6.13%。制造业内 部，上游增速为-4.27%，中游增速为 21.23%，前值为 7.64%。下游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond and equity markets are currently in a high - level consolidation phase. Before the market chooses a direction, attention can be paid to low - priced, mid - cap, and TMT sectors [1][12]. - In 2025, about 9% of convertible bonds have completed the disclosure of regular rating reports, with a similar pace to 2024. A total of 10 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, showing no significant change compared to previous years, and the market reaction is not obvious [1][12]. - From May to July, the performance of convertible bonds divided by rating shows little differentiation, while the performance divided by price shows significant differences. Low - priced convertible bonds may be at a good price but not a good time yet, and the suppression factors may be lifted after the rating downgrade risk is realized in mid - to late June [2][14]. - The small - cap index and trading congestion are at historical high levels, facing short - term adjustment pressure. In contrast, the mid - cap index and congestion have fallen to relatively safe low levels, and opportunities for mid - cap repair after June can be focused on [3][24]. - Since mid - March, the trading congestion of the TMT sector has dropped significantly to a low level in the past three years. In June, opportunities for sector rotation within the TMT direction can be noted, such as the short - term opportunities of Qianglian Convertible Bond [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Consolidation: Track Opportunities in Low - priced, Mid - cap, and TMT Sectors - **Regular Rating Report Disclosure**: As of May 24, 2025, about 9% of convertible bonds have completed the disclosure of regular rating reports, with a similar pace to 2024. A total of 10 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, and the market reaction is not obvious [12]. - **Low - priced Bond Performance**: From May to July, the performance of convertible bonds divided by rating shows little differentiation, while the performance divided by price shows significant differences. Low - priced convertible bonds have an average decline of 5 points in 35 trading days after early May. In 2025, low - priced convertible bonds have performed better than in previous years, mainly due to the strong learning effect of 2024. The suppression factors may be lifted after the rating downgrade risk is realized in mid - to late June [2][14]. - **Mid - cap and Small - cap Analysis**: The small - cap index and trading congestion are at historical high levels, facing short - term adjustment pressure. The mid - cap index and congestion have fallen to relatively safe low levels, and opportunities for mid - cap repair after June can be focused on. From a calendar effect perspective, there is no significant difference among large, medium, and small - cap stocks from May to July [3][24]. - **TMT Sector Analysis**: Since mid - March, the trading congestion of the TMT sector has dropped significantly to a low level in the past three years. In June, opportunities for sector rotation within the TMT direction can be noted, such as the short - term opportunities of Qianglian Convertible Bond [4][32]. 3.2 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined Weekly, and Valuations Slightly Compressed - **Weekly Market Conditions**: Last week, major stock indices declined, and the convertible bond market slightly declined. There are 475 issued and outstanding convertible bonds, with a balance of 68.3527 billion yuan. In the equity market, most industries declined, while in the convertible bond market, most sectors rose. Among popular concepts, about half declined [37][41]. - **Valuation Performance**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 118.68 yuan, a 0.20% decline from the previous Friday. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 22.78%, a 0.17 - percentage - point decline from the previous Friday. The conversion premium rates of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales have increased, with the A + rating rising by 1.81 percentage points and those below 300 million yuan (including 300 million yuan) rising by 2.63 percentage points [47]. 3.3 Terms and Supply: Huaxiang and Hongchang Convertible Bonds Announced Redemption, and CSRC Approval of Convertible Bonds is Acceptable - **Terms**: As of May 23, Huaxiang and Hongchang Convertible Bonds announced redemption, with the last trading days on June 6 and June 11, 2025, respectively. No convertible bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Nine convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 16 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision [5][64]. - **Primary Market**: No new convertible bonds were listed or issued last week. There were no new board proposals, 5 new cases passed the general meeting of shareholders, 1 new case passed the CSRC review committee, and no new CSRC approvals, compared with + 0, + 5, + 1, - 1 respectively from the same period last year. As of May 23, 10 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a planned issuance scale of 1.5048 billion yuan, and 4 listed companies have passed the CSRC review committee, with a total scale of 339.3 million yuan [6][71][74].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao Group, with a target price of HKD 17.0, based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - China Hongqiao is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a strong focus on integrated operations that create a competitive advantage and a high dividend payout history [8][10]. - The company has a robust supply chain, ensuring stable costs for its electrolytic aluminum segment through ownership of bauxite and alumina resources [2][10]. - The strategic move towards high-end, low-carbon development through recycling and advanced aluminum processing is expected to enhance profitability [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Hongqiao operates across the entire aluminum value chain, including power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, with significant production bases in Indonesia and various locations in China [8][16]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the Zhang family controlling approximately 65.53% of the equity [8][22]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of HKD 156.17 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of HKD 22.37 billion, reflecting a 95.2% increase [4][25]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production is competitive at approximately HKD 13,232 per ton, benefiting from self-sufficient energy and raw material sources [8][10]. Production Capacity and Market Position - China Hongqiao has a total alumina production capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons, making it one of the largest producers globally [8][45]. - The company is actively expanding its recycling capabilities, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 500,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is set to benefit from the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to contribute significantly to its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. - Projections indicate that net profits will reach HKD 20.77 billion, HKD 22.38 billion, and HKD 23.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][12].

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业深度研究报告 谁在战胜基准？——基于保险十年深度转型 推荐（维持） 复盘 ❑ 回顾保险板块过去十年，根据行情驱动因素划分阶段： 2015-2016 年：保险板块先升后降，随之低位调整，主要影响因素或在于股市 波动。 2017 年：保险板块显著跑赢大盘，主要驱动或在于 134 号文推动行业价值转 型。 2018-2019 年：保险板块先跌后涨，与大盘走势趋同，投资弹性+减税政策红利 驱动下 2019 年涨幅跑赢大盘。 2020-2022 年：保险板块先涨后跌，主要影响因素或在于疫情扰动及复苏预期、 地产违约事件及代理人改革清虚。 2023 年至今：保险板块多数时期跑赢大盘，影响因素多元化交叉集合体现， 如代理人改革兑现、监管推动压降负债成本、红利结构性行情、新准则下放大 行业贝塔效应。 ❑ 风险提示：监管变动、长端利率加速下行、权益市场震荡、转型不及预期 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...