Group 1: Macro Insights - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3% from 49.7% in June, indicating a marginal slowdown and reflecting the initial effects of the "anti-involution" policy and disruptions from extreme weather [2][4][6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also fell to 50.1% from 50.5% in June, remaining below seasonal levels [2][4] - The "anti-involution" policy has suppressed industrial production in certain sectors, while also pushing up prices for some goods due to reduced capacity utilization [2][4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI has maintained expansion for three consecutive months, while high-tech and consumer goods sectors showed a decline [2][4] - High-frequency indicators for July show a rebound in port activity, while real estate sales continue to weaken [4] - The construction sector's performance is mixed, with cement production down 5.3% year-on-year, while coke and blast furnace operating rates are higher than last year [4] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Forecasts - For overseas Chinese stocks, the earnings growth rate for the first half of 2025 is expected to continue rising, particularly in the materials sector, while technology and healthcare sectors remain robust [5] - As of July 30, the earnings forecast disclosure rate for overseas Chinese stocks is about 17%, with a current overall positive forecast rate of 60% [5] - Tactical allocation suggestions include increasing exposure to leading gaming and e-commerce companies, and focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials [5] Group 4: Specific Company Insights - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, with projected net profits of 158.5 billion, 161.7 billion, and 168.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - Meta Platforms reported a 22% year-on-year revenue increase to $47.5 billion for Q2, exceeding expectations, driven by strong advertising revenue [16] - Microsoft achieved a 15% year-on-year revenue growth to $281.7 billion for FY2025, benefiting from increased AI demand [23] Group 5: Sectoral Trends - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a valuation shift due to low capitalization rates and consumer policy catalysts [14] - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges with customer capital expenditure adjustments, particularly affecting companies like Tokyo Electron [19] - The electric power market in the U.S. is tightening, with significant investments in nuclear energy and infrastructure development expected [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [5] Core Insights - New home sales in July 2025 experienced seasonal adjustments, with a month-on-month decline of 38.1% and a year-on-year decline of 23.2%, indicating a weakening market momentum [1] - The report highlights an expected acceleration in the implementation of real estate policies, particularly in first-tier cities and core areas, which may exceed expectations [1] - The sales threshold for the top 10 real estate companies increased significantly, while sales amounts for various tiers of companies showed a month-on-month decline [2] - The concentration of top real estate companies has increased, with the top 10 companies accounting for 52.8% of total sales among the top 100 companies, reflecting a trend towards consolidation [3] - Overall market activity in the real estate sector has declined, suggesting a traditional off-season, with a recommendation to focus on companies with advantages in core city layouts [4] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In July 2025, new home sales saw a month-on-month decrease of 38.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%, with cumulative sales from January to July down 14.4% year-on-year [1] Sales Thresholds - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 real estate companies were 616 billion, 217 billion, 147 billion, 77 billion, and 25 billion respectively, with the top 10 showing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [2] Company Concentration - The top 10 companies' sales accounted for 52.8% of the total sales of the top 100 companies, indicating a slight increase in concentration compared to the previous year [3] Market Activity - The market activity for new and second-hand homes in 44 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 34.4% and 28.2% respectively, indicating a seasonal downturn [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate developers with strong credit, good city locations, and quality products, as well as top property management companies and REITs benefiting from asset revaluation in Hong Kong [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Electronic Arts (EA) with a target price of $179.80 [5][13]. Core Insights - EA reported FY26Q1 net revenue of $1.67 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 7.4% and showing a year-over-year increase of 0.7% [1][5]. - The net bookings revenue reached $1.3 billion, surpassing consensus expectations by 4% and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 2.9%, primarily driven by stable growth in core products like the global football and rugby series [1][5]. - Despite an increase in new game release investments leading to a decline in net profit margin by 4.9 percentage points to 12%, the company achieved a net profit of $201 million, exceeding expectations by 51.6% [1][5]. Financial Performance - FY26Q1 net bookings revenue was $1.3 billion, higher than the previous guidance of $1.23 billion, with game net bookings revenue at $214 million, up 27.4% year-over-year, driven by the new title "Split Fiction" [2]. - Real-time service net bookings revenue was $1.08 billion, down 0.9% year-over-year, mainly due to stable growth in the "FC" and rugby series, partially offset by a decline in "Apex Legends" [2]. - The core game series saw a modest single-digit year-over-year growth in "FC" series net bookings, with "FC Online" achieving double-digit growth and "FC Mobile" reaching a record high with over 50 million installations [2]. Upcoming Releases - EA released the first trailer for "Battlefield 6" on July 24, with over 7 million views by July 29, and the full game is expected to launch within FY26 on platforms including PS5, Xbox X|S, and PC [3]. - The core football game "FC 26" is anticipated to be released on September 26 across all platforms, including the Switch 2, focusing on enhancing player experience with competitive and realistic gameplay modes [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly lowers the FY26-28E net revenue estimates by 1%, 0.8%, and 0.8% to $7.19 billion, $8.11 billion, and $8.36 billion respectively, primarily due to pressure on net bookings revenue from the rugby series [4][11]. - The FY26-28E net profit estimates are also reduced by 4.7%, 2.3%, and 2.6% to $910 million, $1.38 billion, and $1.43 billion respectively, attributed to increased promotional costs for "Battlefield 6" [4][11]. - The valuation is based on a PE of 33 times for FY27, aligning with the average of comparable companies, resulting in a target price of $179.80, down from a previous estimate of $184.60 [4][13].

证券研究报告 固收视角 反内卷拉动价格,需求端牵引息 华泰研究 2025年7月31日|中国内地 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com zhangjigiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖, PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 李梓豪 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 (事件) 中国 7 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3, 前值为 49.7。 中国 7月官方非制造业 PMI 为 50.1,前值为 50.5。 (点评) 1、7 月 PMI 为 49.3,较上月下行 0.4pct,可比季节性约为-0.14pct。EMPI 亦有所回落,制造业淡季特征显现,主要 的支撑在于反内卷相关行业,但需求端尤其内需整体上形成拖累。 2、积极的点在于:其一，反内卷对信心的提振作用相对明显,原材料 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 112.25 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 5.7% year-on-year for H1 2025, with a pre-tax profit increase of 5.1% [1]. - The board has approved a second dividend of USD 0.10 per share for 2025 and plans to initiate a share buyback of up to USD 3 billion [1]. - The company is experiencing strong growth in wealth management, with non-interest income increasing by 24.8% year-on-year in H1 2025 [3]. - The company has seen total assets, loans, and deposits grow by 8.0%, 4.5%, and 7.8% year-on-year, respectively, as of June [1]. Financial Performance - The net interest margin for Q2 2025 was 1.56%, down 3 basis points from Q1 2025, primarily due to declining yields in Asia [2]. - The banking net interest income for H1 2025 decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with a guidance of USD 42 billion for the full year [2]. - Non-interest income from wealth management grew by 22.3% in H1 2025, marking six consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [3]. Asset Quality and Provisions - As of June, the non-performing loan ratio was 2.41%, with a provision coverage ratio of 43% [4]. - The company anticipates credit costs for 2025 to be around 0.40%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the Hong Kong commercial real estate sector [4]. - The company has increased its provisions, with expected credit losses rising to USD 1.1 billion for Q2 2025 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.25 for 2025, with a forecasted earnings per share (EPS) of USD 1.23 for 2025 [9]. - The company's current market capitalization is approximately HKD 1,688,949 million, with a closing price of HKD 96.95 as of July 30 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Electronic Arts (EA) with a target price of $179.80 [1][11]. Core Insights - EA reported FY26Q1 net revenue of $1.67 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 7.4% and showing a year-over-year increase of 0.7%. Net bookings reached $1.3 billion, surpassing expectations by 4% and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 2.9% [1]. - The growth is primarily driven by the strong performance of core products, particularly the global football and rugby series, while the decline in "Apex Legends" was less severe than anticipated. Despite increased investment in new game releases leading to a 4.9 percentage point drop in net profit margin to 12%, the company achieved a net profit of $201 million, exceeding expectations by 51.6% [1]. - EA plans to release "Battlefield 6" within FY26 and maintains its full-year guidance unchanged [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q1 net bookings were $1.3 billion, higher than the previous guidance of $1.23 billion. Game net bookings were $214 million, up 27.4% year-over-year, driven by the new title "Split Fiction" [1]. - Real-time service net bookings were $1.08 billion, down 0.9% year-over-year, impacted by the performance of "FC" and the rugby series, partially offset by the better-than-expected decline in "Apex Legends" [1]. - Key game series performance: 1. "FC" series net bookings showed single-digit growth year-over-year, with "FC Online" achieving double-digit growth and "FC Mobile" surpassing 50 million installations. 2. Rugby series net bookings maintained positive growth year-over-year, although a decline of 8% is expected in Q2 due to high base effects, with a recovery anticipated in H2. 3. "F1 25" launched in Q1, benefiting from the concurrent F1 movie release, resulting in a 27% year-over-year increase in net bookings [1]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly lowers FY26-28E net revenue estimates by 1%, 0.8%, and 0.8% to $7.19 billion, $8.11 billion, and $8.36 billion, respectively, primarily due to pressure on net bookings from the rugby series [3]. - FY26-28E net profit estimates are also reduced by 4.7%, 2.3%, and 2.6% to $911 million, $1.38 billion, and $1.43 billion, respectively, due to rising promotional costs for "Battlefield 6" [3]. - The valuation is switched to FY27, assigning a PE of 33x, consistent with peer averages, leading to a target price of $179.80, down from a previous estimate of $184.60 [3][11]. Upcoming Releases - The first trailer for "Battlefield 6" was released on July 24, with over 7 million views by July 29. The game is expected to launch within FY26 on PS5, Xbox XJS, and PC, with the highest historical investment in its development [2]. - The core football game "FC 26" is set to release on September 26 across all platforms, including Switch 2, focusing on enhancing player experience with competitive and realistic gameplay modes [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 25% year-on-year in 1H25, with revenue of 360 million RMB and a net profit of 31 million RMB, down 69% year-on-year [1] - The company is viewed positively in the long term as a leading provider of wireless IoT devices and solutions, particularly in the context of AI opportunities [1][4] - Despite short-term order fluctuations due to tariff impacts, the company is expanding its video vehicle networking business rapidly [1][4] Financial Performance - In 2Q25, the company's revenue was 203 million RMB, a 23% year-on-year decline but a 30% increase quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 21 million RMB, down 66% year-on-year but up 117% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The overall gross margin for 1H25 was 41.01%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The revenue from vehicle information intelligent terminal products was 237 million RMB, down 14% year-on-year, while asset management intelligent terminal products generated 66 million RMB, down 55% year-on-year [1] Emerging Business Opportunities - The company’s new business areas continue to show strong growth, particularly in video vehicle networking products, which saw a 90% year-on-year increase in revenue [2][4] - The company’s ECALL emergency light product has passed DGT3.0 certification, allowing entry into the Spanish and some EU markets, which is expected to drive rapid growth [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 133 million RMB, 149 million RMB, and 165 million RMB respectively, down from previous estimates [5] - The target price for the company is set at 14.12 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 49x for 2025 [5]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The Fed maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the July FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations. There were internal disagreements, with two governors voting against and favoring an immediate rate cut, but Powell's hawkish remarks at the press conference reduced the rate - cut expectation. The Fed may wait for employment data to weaken before cutting rates [2]. - Before the FOMC meeting, US economic data was robust, driving up US Treasury yields and strengthening the US dollar. After the meeting, financial conditions tightened, and the US stock market turned down, showing some "mild stagflation" pressure [6]. - The probability of the first rate cut within the year occurring in the fourth quarter has increased, subject to inflation, employment data, and the Fed's decision - making mechanism. The Fed is likely to wait and see based on inflation and employment data [2][9]. FOMC Statement - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Two governors, Bowman and Waller, voted against, increasing the easing expectation to some extent, but Powell's hawkish speech later reduced the rate - cut expectation [2]. - The Fed noted that economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, with high uncertainty, a low unemployment rate, and a robust jobs market [2]. Powell's Press Conference - Powell considered the current interest rate to be at a moderately restrictive level. Inflation is slightly above 2%, the labor market is robust, and the Fed has not decided on a September rate cut, waiting for more data [3]. - Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influence, stating that it makes decisions based on data [3]. Market Performance - Before the FOMC meeting, multiple economic data showed a robust US economy, with the 7 - month ADP employment increasing by 104,000 (higher than the expected 75,000), and the Q2 real GDP annualized year - on - year growth at 3% (higher than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of - 0.5%). However, consumer spending cooled, and there was "mild stagflation" pressure [6]. - After the meeting, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.79bp to 3.95%, the 10 - year yield rose 4.77bp to 4.37%, the US dollar index strengthened, and US stocks turned down [7]. Outlook for Policy Path - By the September FOMC meeting, economic data may not support a rate cut. The probability of the first rate cut within the year occurring in the fourth quarter has increased [9]. - From the inflation perspective, the Fed needs to see the peak of the inflation pulse caused by tariffs pass. The inflation effect of tariffs is slower than expected, and inflation is expected to rise rapidly in the third quarter [9]. - In terms of employment, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the unemployment rate approaches 4.5%. Currently, the labor market supply - demand balance is maintained, and the probability of the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% or higher before September is low [9]. - The Fed's decision - making mechanism shows that although two governors supported a rate cut in July, Powell led the majority to maintain a relatively tight stance and a data - driven model, and the Fed's independence is well - defended [10]. Asset Allocation Views - US Treasuries: Due to tariff impacts and Fed policy expectations, short - term risks of US Treasuries may rise slightly in the third quarter, while long - term bonds may be relatively stable. It is recommended to buy 10 - year US Treasuries at a yield of around 4.5% [11]. - US Stocks: After hitting record highs, the US stock market may face short - term volatility due to inflation, Fed's tight - stance, and tariff impacts on corporate earnings. It is advisable to hedge short - term risks by increasing volatility [11]. - US Dollar: With trade partners' concessions on tariffs, the "de - dollarization" concern has eased. The US dollar may stage a rebound in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to its impact on the foreign exchange market and domestic monetary policies [12].

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting[1] - Two Fed governors voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first such occurrence since 1993[1] - The Fed's assessment of economic growth was downgraded from "expand at a solid pace" to "moderated," indicating concerns over economic slowdown[1] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 45%, down from previous expectations[1] - Cumulative rate cut expectations for the year decreased by 7 basis points to 37 basis points[1] - The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 6 basis points and 2 basis points, reaching 3.94% and 4.37% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - Powell emphasized the robustness of the job market but acknowledged existing downside risks[3] - The second quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, but the overall growth rate for the first half of the year was slower compared to the same period last year[3] - Powell noted that tariffs are contributing to inflation, with companies likely to pass on costs to consumers in the future[3] Future Outlook - The decision on a potential rate cut in September will depend on economic data from July and August, particularly employment figures[4] - There is a possibility of two rate cuts between September and December if economic conditions weaken[4] - Risks include unexpected inflation from tariffs and a faster-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. job market[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 25% year-on-year in 1H25, with total revenue of 360 million RMB and a net profit of 31 million RMB, down 69% year-on-year [1][5]. - Despite short-term performance pressure due to tariff disruptions affecting some orders, the long-term outlook remains positive, particularly in the context of opportunities presented by AI advancements [1][4][5]. - The company is recognized as a leading provider of wireless IoT devices and solutions, with strong growth in emerging business areas such as video vehicle networking [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In 1H25, the company's revenue from vehicle-mounted information intelligent terminals was 237 million RMB, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, while revenue from asset management intelligent terminals fell by 55% to 66 million RMB [2]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 41.01% in 1H25, a slight decrease of 1.59 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for vehicle-mounted information intelligent terminals improved by 0.45 percentage points to 43.77%, while the margin for asset management terminals decreased by 1.19 percentage points to 41.82% [3]. Emerging Business Development - The company continues to expand in new business areas, with video vehicle networking products showing a remarkable growth rate of 90% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company’s ECALL emergency light products have received DGT3.0 certification, allowing entry into the Spanish and some EU markets, which is expected to facilitate rapid growth [4]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised down to 133 million RMB, 149 million RMB, and 165 million RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price for the company is set at 14.12 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 49x for 2025 [5][7].