2025 年 7 月 31 日 橡胶甲醇原油 强弱分化凸显 能化涨跌互现 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现缩量减仓，弱势下行， 大幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心大幅下移至 14560 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价大幅收低 2.90%至 14560 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度缩小至 820 元/吨。经历前期大幅上涨以后，多头获利丰厚。随着泰国和柬埔寨暂 时停战，胶市地缘溢价回吐。在利空情绪主导下，预计后市国内沪胶 期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏弱格局运行。 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2426 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2393 元/吨，收盘时小幅收低 1.11%至 2405 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大 至 88 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货大幅下跌拖累，叠加甲醇偏弱的供需基 本面压制。在偏空因素主导下，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2509 合约或维 持震荡偏弱的走势 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5]. - The core reason is the decline in coal prices and the digestion of positive factors after the Sino - US economic and trade talks [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of weak operation. The core logic is the decline in coal prices [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - After the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, although there was in - depth communication, differences still exist. After the positive factors were digested, affected by the sharp decline in coal futures prices, domestic methanol slightly closed down 0.90% to 2410 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. It is predicted that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures. It believes that both are likely to run weakly due to prevailing bearish factors [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time cycle definitions: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For intraday views, "oscillating strongly/weakly" is defined as a 0 - 1% increase/decrease, a decrease > 1% is a decline, and an increase > 1% is a rise. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1][3][4]. 3.2 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term view: oscillating; Medium - term view: oscillating strongly; Intraday view: oscillating weakly; Overall reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, with the digestion of bullish factors and dominant bearish sentiment, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 1.30% to 14800 yuan/ton on Wednesday night and may maintain an oscillatingly weak trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term view: oscillating; Medium - term view: oscillating strongly; Intraday view: oscillating weakly; Overall reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, with the digestion of bullish factors and dominant bearish sentiment, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed down 2.11% to 11585 yuan/ton on Wednesday night and may maintain an oscillatingly weak trend on Thursday [1][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and an intraday trend of being volatile and slightly strong [1][5] - Due to improved macro factors and enhanced geopolitical sentiment in the oil market, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend on Thursday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile and slightly strong [1][5] 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.66% to 532.5 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Driving Logic - **Macro Factors**: This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The risk appetite of the commodity market has recovered under the improved macro factors [5] - **Geopolitical Factors**: US President Trump declared his disappointment with Russian President Putin and will shorten the deadline given to Putin, which has enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 美联储维持利率不变，金价承压 | | 铜 | 2509 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 下跌 | 特朗普宣布 8 月 1 日起对进口半 成品铜等产品征收 50%关税，纽约 铜大跌 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on the futures of coking coal and coke, with both expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. The core logic for coking coal involves the limited actual impact of industry policies and policy expectations driving price adjustments, while for coke, it's the cost - side support from coking coal and relatively stable fundamentals [1][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Short - term view: Oscillating [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillating, with an intraday view of oscillating weakly and a medium - term view of oscillating strongly [1][5] - Reference view: Range - bound oscillation [1][5] - Core logic: The impact of "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification" policies needs verification. After the policy expectations were fulfilled, the coking coal futures adjusted broadly. Short - term price回调 is due to the release of positive sentiment, but long - term fundamentals may improve after capacity optimization [5]. Coke (J) - Short - term view: Oscillating [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillating, with an intraday view of oscillating weakly and a medium - term view of oscillating strongly [1][6] - Reference view: Range - bound oscillation [1][6] - Core logic: The spot prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port increased week - on - week. The fundamentals of coke are under little pressure, and the expected improvement in the supply - demand pattern of coking coal provides cost - side support, leading to broad - range oscillation after a short - term correction [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished steel products. The demand for iron ore has some resilience, which supports the ore price, but the supply of iron ore will increase while the demand is weakly stable. Under the situation of increasing supply and stable demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will weaken [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened and the ore price is adjusting at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production has weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined but remains at a high level within the year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the resilience of ore demand still exists, which supports the ore price. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased as expected on a monthly basis, but according to ship schedules, subsequent arrivals are unlikely to decrease. On the contrary, the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase, and they are expected to be active in shipping at high ore prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the ore supply will increase again [2].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 策略参考 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：本周中美代表团第三次谈判的核心决定，就是将世界两大经济体之间的关税休战期延长三个月， 关税保持不变。美豆出口需求难有改善，美豆期价继续震荡运行。在中美谈判结果不及预期的背景下，国 内油厂远期买船心态仍将保持谨慎，大量的买船缺口难以快速填补，继续支撑豆类期价内强外弱。短期豆 粕期价或维持震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 股市风险偏好上升，股债跷跷板 效应显现 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡上涨。7 月以来，股市风险偏好上升，资金偏好由债转股，股债跷跷 板效应显现，加上外部风险因素趋于缓和，国债短线承压。随着国债期货 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not provided [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that in the peak summer season, with the seasonal increase in domestic thermal coal demand and the fermentation of positive news such as "anti - involution", the market sentiment is optimistic, driving coal prices up. It is expected that coal prices will remain strong in August [5] Group 3 Supply - As of July 18, the average daily output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared to the end of June [5] - According to SteelHome data, in the first two weeks of July, the arrival volume of seaborne coal in China was 10.864 million tons, with an average daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [5] Demand - In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provincial power plants was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provincial power plants was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [5] Inventory - According to iFind data, as of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [5]