Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to move in a volatile manner, with a short - term downward trend, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday view of being weakly volatile. The core logic is that the rebound of the US dollar is negative for gold prices, and the better - than - expected US economic data has an impact on gold prices [1][3]. - Copper is considered to be strong in the short - term, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and medium - term oscillation. After the impact of US tariffs, the copper price dropped significantly. With the increase in downstream replenishment willingness and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference, the copper price is expected to stabilize and rebound [1][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: volatile operation [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, the gold price first declined and then rose. US economic data released at 20:30 Beijing time was better than expected, causing the gold price to decline and then rebound. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the 3300 level and the trend of the US dollar index [3]. Copper (CU) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: rise; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: strongly volatile; Reference view: strong in the short - term [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Last night, the copper price increased slightly with positions. The main contract price of Shanghai copper recovered the 78,000 level. On the industrial level, downstream replenishment willingness increased as the price declined, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference provided support. The narrowing of the LME import loss reflects the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. On the capital level, the position of Shanghai copper decreased, and after the market digested the negative impact of tariffs, the copper price is expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2509 and synthetic rubber futures 2509 are expected to run strongly on July 19, 2025, with Shanghai rubber showing a short - term upward trend and a mid - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend, while synthetic rubber shows a short - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend and a mid - term oscillating trend [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: The supply side of the rubber market is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [5]. - **Driving Factors**: After the previous negative expectations were digested, the meteorological forecast of a typhoon hitting Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula on July 21, 2025, increased the expectation of production reduction, boosting the rubber price. On the night of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 2.16% to 14,885 yuan/ton [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the production and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [7]. - **Driving Factors**: After the rubber price correction digested the negative factors, supported by the strength of Shanghai rubber and a bullish atmosphere, on the night of July 18, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the futures price closing up 1.52% to 11,655 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being oscillatory and bullish. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend on Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory and bullish trend [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Supply side: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports [5]. - Demand side: Downstream demand enters the off - season, and the supply - demand structure tends to be loose [5]. - Market sentiment: After a sharp correction, bearish sentiment has been released. A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The strengthening of coal futures prices drives the bullish trend of methanol futures [5]. - Price performance: On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.68% to 2385 yuan/ton [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. With the geopolitical risk in the Middle East still present, the premium of crude oil has increased. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. Although 8 major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries plan to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the potential for further production expansion is limited in the future as the production increase negative factors are digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillatory [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is moderately strong and oscillatory, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5]. Price Movement and Data - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a moderately strong and oscillatory trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.79% to 511.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with a mid - term view of upward movement. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, strong liquidity support, and the easing of external risks. However, the upward momentum of the previous high - performing sectors has weakened, and without incremental policies in the short term, the stock index may enter a consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, and the mid - term view is upward, with a reference view of range - bound. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1560.2 billion yuan, an increase of 98.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the expectation of policy support in the second half of the year due to the insufficient effective domestic demand in the first half. The central bank's net injection of liquidity and the easing of external risks also support the market. However, the upward momentum of the previous high - performing sectors has weakened, and without incremental policies in the short term, the stock index may enter a consolidation phase [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that several key agricultural commodities in the futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are showing a tendency of being "oscillating strongly" in the short - term or intraday, with different fundamental driving factors for each [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Positive expectations for US soybean exports boost the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. The "ambiguous deadline" of the China - US trade agreement extends the South American supply window, and the traditional US soybean export peak season faces pressure from Brazilian soybean discounts. Domestic supply pressure is concentrated in the near - term, and forward purchases are low. In the short - term, supply expectations dominate the market again, with futures stronger than spot, and the internal - strong - external - weak pattern continues, keeping the futures price in an oscillating and strong pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating strongly", the mid - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in export taxes may lead to a decline in palm oil exports, weakening the fundamental support of Malaysian palm oil. However, positive expectations for Indonesian biodiesel demand support palm oil prices. Driven by the energy attribute of palm oil, a small amount of capital flowing back boosts the futures price performance, making palm oil lead the rebound in the oil and fat sector again. In the short - term, the palm oil futures price should be treated with a rebound mindset [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market shows a short - term upward trend, with a mid - term and intraday tendency of strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has improved, and the ore price will continue to be strong. However, considering that the valuation has reached a high level, there is a need to guard against the shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety View - For the iron ore 2509 variety, the short - term outlook is upward, the mid - term and intraday outlooks are strongly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have improved, and the ore price will continue to be strong. The definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is favorable. After the end of inspections, steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased again. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore is resilient, providing strong support for the ore price. - Although the port arrivals have increased significantly, the miners' shipments are weak. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will decline, resulting in a decrease in overseas ore supply. Domestic ore production is stable, and the supply will contract in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the iron ore fundamentals have improved, and the industrial pattern is relatively good. Policy expectations have boosted market sentiment, supporting the high - level and strong operation of the ore price [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a slightly bullish oscillation, and the intraday view is a slightly bearish oscillation. Investors should focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the market sentiment is bullish and steel prices are oscillating upwards [2]. - The supply and demand of rebar continue to weaken. Production is decreasing due to maintenance and production conversion, while demand is in the seasonal low with weak high - frequency demand indicators. However, low inventory, policy support expectations, and strong raw materials providing cost support are positive factors. Steel prices are expected to remain stable in oscillation, and the implementation of policies should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term: rise; medium - term: slightly bullish oscillation; intraday: slightly bearish oscillation. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being strong market sentiment and oscillating upward steel prices. The calculation of price changes is based on night - session closing prices for products with night sessions and the previous day's closing prices for those without, and the day - session closing prices as the end price. The definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are also provided [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. Production has decreased to a low level due to maintenance and production conversion, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked as the profit per ton of the product is good. Demand continues to decline seasonally, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics and putting pressure on steel prices. The low inventory, policy support expectations, and strong raw materials providing cost support are positive factors. The steel price is expected to remain stable in oscillation, and the implementation of policies should be monitored [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is "oscillation." The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2509 are "oscillation," and the intraday trend is "oscillation - weak." For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation - weak," and the medium - term view is "oscillation" [1][5]. - The monetary policy environment is biased towards loosening, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low. In the medium - to - long - term, due to insufficient effective demand in the domestic demand side, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, due to the overall resilience of the economy in the first half of the year, the policy may be implemented at the end of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter, so the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. With the central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open market and the market interest rate approaching the policy rate, the upward space for interest rates is also limited. Overall, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be in an oscillatory consolidation state [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term trend is "oscillation," the medium - term trend is "oscillation," the intraday trend is "oscillation - weak," and the overall view is "oscillation." The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards loosening, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation - weak," the medium - term view is "oscillation," and the reference view is "oscillation." The core logic is that Treasury bond futures were in a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, due to insufficient effective demand in the domestic demand side, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts. But because of the economic resilience in the first half of the year, the policy implementation node may be at the end of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter, so the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. Meanwhile, with the central bank's net injection of liquidity and the market interest rate approaching the policy rate, the upward space for interest rates is limited. Therefore, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 17, the coke main contract rallied at the end of the session, continuing its strong performance. The spot price of coking coal increased, leading to higher losses for coke enterprises and stronger cost support, which raised the expectation of coke price hikes. The futures market maintained a pattern of both supply and demand decline, but strong expectations dominated the market. Affected by multiple positive news, the coke main contract is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [5][31]. - On July 17, the coking coal main contract closed at 918.5 points, up 1.55% intraday. Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, positive news has improved market sentiment. With strong expectations leading the market, coking coal futures are expected to remain strong in the short term [6][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - In June 2025, China's raw coal output was 421.074 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 2.404559 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative raw coal output in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 10.1%, 0.7%, and 3.3% year - on - year respectively [8]. - On July 17, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market was strong. The highest transaction price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1320 yuan/ton, and local coal enterprises generally quoted 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat price) | 1220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price) | 1270 yuan/ton | 3.25% | 9.48% | - 21.60% | - 37.44% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 940 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 39.74% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1270 yuan/ton | 2.42% | 4.96% | - 14.77% | - 39.23% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1310 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.80% | - 14.38% | - 36.71% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1519.0 | 1.00 | 1519.5 | 1485.0 | 23460 | 1519 | 44754 | - 534 | | Coking Coal | | 918.5 | 1.55 | 919.0 | 890.0 | 992915 | 17586 | 551465 | - 10542 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), as well as other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][19][25]. Market Outlook - Coke is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term due to positive news and strong expectations. It is necessary to closely monitor domestic and foreign policies [5][31]. - Coking coal futures are expected to remain strong in the short term, with strong expectations leading the market. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to relevant policy dynamics [6][32].