投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2512 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶偏弱运行 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国总统特朗普主动释放缓和信号，宏观面偏空情绪得到减弱。不过目前胶市宏观 因子和产业因子依然维持偏弱格局。受此影响，本周二夜盘，国内沪胶期货 2601 合约继续维持震荡 偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.30%至 14810 元/吨。预计本周三沪胶 260 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 15 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：近期国际金价持续攀升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with potential impacts from tariff shocks and supply - demand imbalances in various industries [19]. - The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets have experienced recent adjustments, but the long - term trend of the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, and the overall risk of A - share margin trading is controllable [32][33]. - The bond market has different outlooks in the short and medium - term, with various factors affecting the performance of different bond types [22][28]. - The commodity market shows diverse trends, such as rising precious metal prices, complex situations in the coal - coke - steel - ore and energy - chemical sectors, and changes in agricultural product trade volumes [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, with M1 growth accelerating [1]. - In September 2025, export and import values increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries [2]. - From January to September 2025, the national futures market volume and turnover increased by 18.29% and 24.11% year - on - year respectively, but decreased in September [2]. - The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet and is expected to cut interest rates, with different views on the number of rate cuts [3][4]. 3.3 Main Commodity Highlights - **Metals**: Shandong Gold's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to increase by 83.9% - 98.5% year - on - year, and gold and silver prices have risen [5][6]. - **Coal - Coke - Steel - Ore**: In early October 2025, steel production showed different trends, and global steel demand is expected to be flat in 2025 and rebound slightly in 2026 [9]. - **Energy - Chemical**: Oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances, and there may be a policy to regulate photovoltaic capacity [10]. - **Agricultural Products**: China's grain projects are progressing, and there are changes in the import and export volumes of grains in different countries [12]. 3.4 Financial News - **Open Market**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and is expected to conduct a 6 - month term reverse repurchase operation on October 15 [15]. - **Important News**: The Chinese government emphasizes economic stability, and there are various policy adjustments and economic data changes at home and abroad [16][18]. - **Bond Market**: Bond market performance is diverse, with different trends in different bond types and regions [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates have changed, and the US dollar index has declined [27]. - **Research Reports**: Different research institutions have different outlooks on the bond and convertible bond markets [28]. 3.5 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have recently adjusted, with A - share trading volume reaching 2.6 trillion yuan, and the Hong Kong stock market has been falling for 7 days [32]. - A - share margin trading scale has reached a new high, and some brokers have adjusted margin ratios, while the overall risk is controllable [32]. - Southbound funds have driven the Hong Kong stock market, and although there is short - term adjustment, the long - term trend is positive [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily arbitrage data report of Baocheng Futures on October 15, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][18][25][38][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, is presented, with the basis on October 14 being - 81.4 yuan/ton, showing an increasing trend compared to previous days [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 14 was 2.52 yuan/ton [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are shown. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 14 was - 595 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rubber was - 10 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on October 14 was 2252 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on October 14 was 139.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rebar was 56.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 14 was 3.88 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on October 14 was 1450 yuan/ton [29]. London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was 54.87 [34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 14 was 7 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on October 14 was 1.90 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 14 was 31.86 [50]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) are presented. For example, the next month - current month inter - period of CSI 300 was - 17.6 [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 止盈需求上升，股指震荡回调 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡下跌，其中中证 1000 与中证 500 跌幅明显。沪深京 三市全天成交额 25966 亿元，较上日放量 2224 亿元。消息面，关税战风波 再起，11 月前外部不确定性因素升温，叠加目前估值水平处于较高水平， 投资者落袋为安的意愿上升，止盈需求下股指震荡回调。不过特朗普关税威 胁对 A 股的影响趋于短线，边际效应弱于今年 4 月初，其影响相对有限。从 宏观基本面的角度来看，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，外部关税因素的扰 动仍存，未来政策面稳定宏观基本面的预期较强，政策利好预期构成股指的 较强支撑。另外，A 股的投资属性受到政策面重视，社会财富配置股市的趋 势显现，资金面持续流入成为推动股指上行的中长期力量。总的来说，短期 内股指预计保持宽幅震荡为主。 目前期权隐含波动率仍处于低位，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续 持有牛市价差或备兑。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F303 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 10 月 14 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪主导 能化弱势运行 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 14850 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.97%至 14845 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 15 元/吨。随着胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构所主导的行情中。在宏观预 期偏弱的背景下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的 走势。 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓，弱势下行， 大幅收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2345 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2255 元/吨，收盘时大幅回落 2.61%至 2274 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 26 元/吨。受偏弱的甲醇供需基本面压制，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 原油：本 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面支撑乏力，煤焦偏弱震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：10 月 14 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1654.5 元/吨，日内录得 0.36% 的涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.24 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +485 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1460 元/吨，周 环比上涨 1.39%。根据钢联统计，截至 10 月 10 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢 厂焦化厂焦炭日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to decline in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions in the rebar industry are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, the inventory has increased significantly, and the price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore turned weak and declined, with a daily decline of 2.07%, and both the volume and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore is performing well, which supports the price of iron ore. However, the supply of iron ore is high, and the resilience of demand is weakening. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a high-level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Among them, domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Among them, domestic sales were 89,877 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 84,162 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [6]. - From January to September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the new car sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.1% of the total new car sales. From January to September, automobile exports were 4.95 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 1.758 million, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%. From the perspective of the consumer terminal, from January to September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high - speed growth of 24.4%, and the retail penetration rate in September reached 57.8% [7]. - The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2025 will be about 1.75 billion tons, the same as in 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026 to reach 1.772 billion tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all showed varying degrees of decline. The prices of 61.5% PB powder, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index also decreased, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, and the ocean freight increased slightly [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore futures all declined. The decline rates were 0.81%, 0.70%, and 2.07% respectively. The trading volume of rebar and hot-rolled coil plate decreased, while that of iron ore increased. The open interest of all three increased [11]. Relevant Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory changes of steel and iron ore (including rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore in ports and at steel mills), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operation rate, and profitability) [13][20][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. The production of construction steel mills is weak, and the weekly output decreased by 36,200 tons. The supply has shrunk to a relatively low level, but the space for production reduction during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect is not strong. The demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased. Weak demand will continue to suppress the steel price. It is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner under the game of multiple and short factors [35]. - For hot-rolled coil plate, the supply and demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output decreased by 14,000 tons, but it is still at a high level within the year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large. The demand during the holiday is weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons. Although the production of cold-rolled products, the main downstream, remains at a high level, there are concerns about the demand for hot-rolled coil. The price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly [35]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand have changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remains at a high level. The demand for iron ore is performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the resilience is expected to weaken. The arrival at domestic ports continues to rise, and the overseas miners' shipments decline slightly, both maintaining high levels within the year. The supply pressure of iron ore increases. It is expected that the price of iron ore will maintain a high-level volatile operation [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色午后跳水 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价高位回落，午后加速下跌，持仓量持续下降。短期市场 反弹后多头了结意愿较强。宏观层面，股指、有色和贵金属均呈现 下挫。预计铜价后续震荡企稳，关注 8.4 万关口支撑。 今日铝价高位回落，午后加速下跌，整体持仓量变化不大。短期 市场反弹后多头了结意愿较强。宏观层面，股指、有色和贵金属均呈 现下挫。预计铝价后续震荡企稳。 沪镍 今日镍价增仓下行明显，主力期价跌破 12.1 万关口。短期有色板 块多头了结导 ...