投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和推动落后产能有序退出， 新一轮供给侧改革可能到来提振国内商品期货。目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月 环比产出压力较大。与此同时，下游需求偏弱，轮胎产销增速放缓，叠加终端需求迎来淡季。在偏 多氛围支撑下，本周四夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1.19%至 14410 元/吨。预计本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The core logic is that the US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, the dollar rebounded, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased, putting pressure on gold prices. However, the long - term de - dollarization and anti - globalization trends still support gold prices [1][2]. - For copper, the short - term view is an increase, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and strengthening trend. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the domestic macro - environment has improved, and although the US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, copper prices are supported at the June price center [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Overseas gold prices have repeatedly rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold has rebounded after falling below 770 yuan [2]. - **Driving Factors**: The US non - farm data in early July exceeded expectations, reducing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The dollar index has been rising, putting pressure on gold prices. Technically, gold has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, but the long - term de - dollarization trend still supports gold [2]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded yesterday, with the open interest continuously decreasing [4]. - **Driving Factors**: Domestically, the macro - environment has improved, and the equity and commodity markets have generally risen. The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper from August 1st, which may lead to a decline in non - US copper demand. However, copper prices are supported at the June price center [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需双弱局面未变，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下降，但钢厂盈利状况较好， 需求减量空间有限。同时，港口到货虽迎来回升，但财年末冲量结束后矿商发运大幅减量，海外矿石 供应迎来收缩，相应的内矿生产趋弱，供应同样走弱。目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面并无实 质性 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 观点参考 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。6 月下旬以来，股指反弹较为明显，主要驱动力量来自于对 下半年的政策利好预期，包括对"反内卷"政策将会 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined slightly. Due to the recent easing of external risks, the risk appetite of the domestic stock market has quickly recovered, greatly weakening the hedging demand for treasury bonds. Coupled with the low short - term expectation of interest rate cuts, treasury bond futures are consolidating at high levels. However, the domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is still relatively solid. In general, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The driving logic is that yesterday's treasury bond futures declined slightly. The easing of external risks and the recovery of the domestic stock market's risk appetite weakened the hedging demand for treasury bonds. With low short - term interest rate cut expectations, treasury bond futures are at high - level consolidation. The weak domestic inflation, insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, and external demand vulnerability require a loose monetary environment in the second half of the year. The short - term movement of treasury bond futures is limited, and they will continue to oscillate [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 利好预期发酵，钢价震荡上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂有所转产，螺纹产量再度回落，供应有所收缩，持续性存 疑。与此同时，螺纹需求延续季节性弱势，周度表现环比下降，高频成交也明显缩量，两者均是近 年来同期低位，且下游行业未见好转，弱势需求格局未变。总之，螺纹钢呈现供需双弱局面，基本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view for soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly bullish; Reference view: oscillating and slightly bullish [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The market focuses on the US Department of Agriculture report tonight. Traders adjust their positions before the report, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. The domestic soybean market supply remains abundant, and rising trade concerns boost market sentiment again. In the short - term, pay attention to the linkage effect of the US Department of Agriculture report. Under the influence of weak reality and trade concerns, soybean meal futures prices are expected to move in an oscillating and slightly bullish manner [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly bullish; Reference view: oscillating and slightly bullish [7][8] - **Core Logic**: Palm oil was dragged down by the disappointing Malaysian palm report and weakened. The Malaysian palm report showed that the Malaysian palm inventory increased instead of decreasing, disappointing the market. Some funds left the market, causing the palm oil futures prices to decline. The strengthening of the neighboring soybean oil futures prices provides some support to palm oil futures prices. In the short - term, palm oil futures prices may enter a consolidation phase [8] Other Influencing Factors - **Soybean Meal 2509**: Influenced by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7] - **Soybean Oil 2509**: Affected by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7] - **Palm 2509**: Influenced by biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The price closed up 2.86% at 14,405 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 870 yuan/ton. Supported by positive factors such as enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, the contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price closed up 1.40% at 2,398 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread discount widened to 65 yuan/ton. Benefiting from the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price closed up 0.33% at 512.3 yuan/barrel. With the Middle East geopolitical risks and the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The semi - steel tire capacity utilization rate decreased by 6.27 percentage points week - on - week, and the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. In June 2025, the automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 4, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 85.20%. The weekly production was 1.9871 million tons. The inventories in East and South China ports were 499,700 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,300 tons [11][12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 432. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 418.95 million barrels. The WTI non - commercial net long positions increased slightly, while the Brent crude oil futures fund net long positions decreased significantly [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,950 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14,405 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | - 455 yuan/ton | - 360 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,412 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 2,398 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 14 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 491.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 511.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | - 19.8 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 今日铜价企稳回升，持仓量持续下降。宏观层面，今日国内宏观 氛围明显回暖，权益和商品市场普涨。沪铜和伦铜在特朗普表示要 征收 50%进口关税后明显承压。我们认为这很可能是市场担忧美国对 铜的关税即将落地，届时美国进口窗口关闭，未来一段时间非美地 区铜的需求或下降，进而导致伦铜和沪铜下跌。技术上，沪铜和伦 铜在 6 月价格中枢有较强的支撑。 沪铝 昨夜铝价增仓上行明显，今日主力期价围绕 2.07 万窄幅震荡。今 日国内宏观氛围明显回暖，权益和商品市场普涨。黑色和减产板块有 明显涨幅，利好铝价。产业层面，7 月 10 日 M ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 1.89%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. It shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. However, the low inventory, recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend, and policy conditions should be closely monitored [4][40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.16%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price to maintain a relatively strong trend, but overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [6][41]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose significantly with a daily increase of 3.67%, trading volume increased while open interest was stable. Ore demand has some resilience, and optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the short - term upward trend. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially in the context of weak supply and demand, and caution is needed regarding the upward height, as well as the possible shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [6][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, the land transfer fees for residential land in first - and second - tier cities increased by over 40%. The land transfer fees in 300 cities increased by 27.5% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 5.5%. The concentration of land transfer fees in the top 20 cities increased to 68%, and the land transfer fees for residential - related land in Hangzhou and Beijing exceeded 10 billion yuan [8]. - **Automobile**: In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [9]. - **Mineral Exploration**: In the first half of 2025, 38 new mineral deposits were discovered in China, a year - on - year increase of 31%, including 25 large and medium - sized ones. Non - oil and gas mineral exploration investment reached 6.693 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. Social capital investment in exploration reached 3.359 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, accounting for 48% of the total [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index, are provided, along with their price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Contract Information**: The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented [15]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][18][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal patterns and inventory changes [22][23][29]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and the operating rate and profitability of electric furnaces of steel mills [32][34][35]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both weak, with production and demand decreasing. The low inventory, policy benefits, and strong raw materials support the short - term upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand have weakened, with production and demand decreasing. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price, but overseas tariff risks should be watched out for [41]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand have weakened, with inventory increasing and consumption decreasing. The short - term upward trend is supported by demand resilience and optimistic sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially [41].