期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格继续企稳，iFind 数据显示，截至 2 月 5 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动 力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比小幅上涨 1 元/吨。当前正处于迎峰度冬关键时期，全国电厂煤炭日 耗高企，带动产业链中下游库存去化，但同时动力煤产量平稳运行，叠加市场对其中长期基本面 依然持有偏空预期，压制煤价维持低位运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly consolidate in a range. Although there are short - term disturbances such as the sharp fluctuations of silver and the weakening of macro - economic indicators, the long - term upward trend of the stock index is supported by policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2163.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp fluctuations of silver disturbed the market sentiment, and the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market increased, resulting in a continuous contraction of the trading volume of the stock market. In the short term, the macro - economic indicators have weakened, and the pressure of "weak reality" has increased. Coupled with the weakening of risk preference caused by silver and the clear signal of risk control from the regulatory authorities, the stock market sentiment is cautious. However, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals are short - term disturbances from external factors, and the repair of the stock market risk preference will eventually return to its own fundamentals. The favorable expectations on the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic for the long - term upward movement of the stock index [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴持续影响原油生产，上周原油库存减 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期临近现货贸易趋于停滞，建筑钢材库存大幅增加，而螺纹钢供需格局弱势未变，建筑钢厂 有所减产，螺纹钢周产量环比下降，供应迎来收缩，但库存水平偏高，压力缓解有限，关注库存变 化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标环比下降，继续位于近年来农历同期最低，且 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Change Calculation Method - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day's daytime closing price to calculate the price change [2] 3.3 Strength and Weakness Criteria - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] 3.4 Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The most critical factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices recently is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, as the main import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction, with most methanol plants reducing or halting production. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January - February. Geopolitical risks are rising, which boosted the domestic methanol futures to maintain a volatile and strong trend on the night of last Friday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业情绪共振，矿价偏弱运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但盈利状况不佳，且钢市产 业矛盾累积，需求改善力度有限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货量低位回升，且矿商发运 量持续增加，海外矿石供应开始企稳，而内矿供应表现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 6, 2026, the stock indices oscillated with slight declines, and the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 2.1635 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - The sharp fluctuations in silver disturbed market sentiment, increasing the willingness of funds to take profits and exit, leading to a continuous contraction in stock market trading volume [3]. - In the short - term, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, and the "weak reality" pressure has increased. Coupled with the decline in risk appetite caused by silver and the clear signal from regulators to control risks, the stock market sentiment is cautious [3]. - The sharp fluctuations in precious metals are short - term disturbances from external factors. The restoration of the stock market's risk appetite will ultimately return to its own fundamentals. The positive expectations of the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock indices [3]. - In the short - term, the stock market risk is cautious, and the stock indices will mainly oscillate and consolidate [3]. - In the options market, the implied volatility at the money has recently rebounded. Since the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock indices is relatively firm, the bull spread strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **Index and ETF Performance**: On February 6, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.70% to 3.115; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.64% to 4.649; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.55% to 4.850; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.57% to 4643.60; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.20% to 8051.57; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.05% to 8.213; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.03% to 3.266; the GEM ETF fell 0.28% to 3.229; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.67% to 3.427; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.69% to 3037.86; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.60% to 1.50; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.75% to 1.45 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 96.30 (previous day: 96.08), and the open interest PCR was 73.63 (previous day: 73.59) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility at the money and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were provided. For example, the implied volatility at the money of SSE 50ETF options in February 2026 was 13.26%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 14.41% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [9][11][13][15][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [19]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [22]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [25]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [34]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [47]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [59]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [72]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [83]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [96]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [108]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [118].

宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 132920 元/吨，较前日 上涨 140 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 134440 元/吨，较前日下跌 6.56%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 2140 点，正基差（现货升水），较前日 走弱 5020 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 沪镍 今日镍价早盘跳水，日内震荡回升，持仓量持续下降。从盘面来 看，早盘沪银逼近跌停，带动有色盘面走弱明显，随着白银反弹，有 色同样呈现反弹态势。产业层面，短期驱动不强，长期印尼供应收缩 预期导致供需预期有所扭转。技术上，镍价逼近周一低位后反弹，持 续关注该位置支撑。 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡企稳 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜早盘先抑后扬，随后在 10 万关口窄幅震荡运行，日内持 仓量呈现下降态势。从盘面来看，早盘沪银逼近跌停，带动有色盘 面走弱 ...