Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with the open interest continuously decreasing and strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. The decline was mainly due to the cooling macro - atmosphere, a rebound in the overseas US dollar index, and an increase in domestic market regulation expectations. In the industrial aspect, the near - month spread weakened, electrolytic copper stocks continued to accumulate, and the downstream showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, some industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased, potentially providing support. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][62]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices also rose and then fell. The main futures price once exceeded the 2021 high, reaching the 25,000 - yuan mark, but then dropped back to the 24,000 - yuan mark due to the weakening macro - atmosphere. The industrial end still resisted high aluminum prices, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. As aluminum prices declined, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increased, providing support. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the macro - atmosphere cooled, causing most commodities to rise and then fall, which was a major reason for the decline in copper and aluminum prices. Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise, pressuring overseas - priced commodities; domestically, short - term market regulation increased, and market risk appetite declined [10]. 3.2 Copper - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week, with the open interest continuously decreasing, indicating strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions [5][62]. - **Copper Ore Shortage**: First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released its 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidance. It slightly lowered the copper and gold production guidance for 2026 - 2027, mainly due to higher maintenance requirements at Sentinel and lower ore grades at Kansanshi. The 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised [25]. - **Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Stocks**: On January 15, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 327,500 tons, a weekly increase of 42,800 tons; on January 8, the overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) was 679,800 tons, a weekly increase of 23,800 tons [27]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: After the holiday, domestic major refined copper rod enterprises resumed production. With a slight decline in copper prices during the week, enterprises' willingness to purchase raw materials increased, and the raw material inventory increased by 2.02% week - on - week. However, downstream enterprises still adopted a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the finished - product inventory increased by 5.77% week - on - week [29]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell last week. The main futures price once exceeded the 2021 high, reaching the 25,000 - yuan mark, but then dropped back to the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: On January 16, the bauxite port inventory was 24.1076 million tons, an increase of 988,400 tons from the previous week and 6.2076 million tons higher than the same period in 2025. Last week, due to the cooling macro - atmosphere, alumina and aluminum prices both declined, and the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased [44][45]. - **Low Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: On January 15, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 749,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from before the holiday; on January 8, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 496,400 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons from the previous week. The overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories continued to diverge last week [50]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: As aluminum prices fell from their highs last week, the replenishment willingness of some downstream industries increased, and the processing fees of aluminum rods in some areas rebounded. On January 8, the aluminum rod inventory was 121,600 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous week. The aluminum rod inventory is about to enter the seasonal accumulation period, and high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand [56][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: The decline in copper prices was mainly due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and increased short - term capital closing - out willingness. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, some industries' replenishment willingness increased, potentially providing support. Monitor the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][62]. - Aluminum: The decline in aluminum prices was due to the weakening macro - atmosphere. The industrial end resisted high aluminum prices, but as prices declined, downstream replenishment willingness increased, providing support. Monitor the long - short game at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 铁矿石：主力期价弱势下行，录得 2.58%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石供应有所收缩，但库存居高不下，且需求表现弱稳，矿市 基本面表现偏弱，叠加周末钢厂生产事故扰动，产业逻辑权重增加， 短期矿价易承压走弱，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 现实逻辑主导，钢矿承压走弱 核心观点 螺纹钢： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending January 16, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1017 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 14,900 tons. An explosion at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia last Sunday raised concerns about downstream production cuts, increasing the market's negative feedback expectations. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from the coke's own fundamentals, the coke futures were suppressed to maintain a weak operation at a low level [5][36]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending January 16, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 769,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 35,000 tons (a new survey sample was added this period, resulting in a significant increase in the data). The total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1017 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons. Overall, the coking coal market maintained a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have been fermented. In the future, the upward momentum of coal prices may rely on policy drivers. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [5][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **National Coal Output**: In 2025, China's raw coal output was 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. In December, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 440 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, with a daily output of 1.41 million tons [7][8]. - **Coking Coal Price in Pingdingshan**: On January 19, the coking coal prices in the Pingdingshan market remained stable. The price of main coking coal was 1,660 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1,490 yuan/ton, both being ex-works prices including VAT [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year-on-Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First-Class FOB) | 1,470 | 0.00% | -3.29% | -13.02% | -10.37% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First-Class Ex-warehouse) | 1,480 | 0.68% | 2.07% | -8.64% | -5.73% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,240 | 11.71% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 5.08% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1,580 | 2.60% | 4.64% | 6.04% | 6.04% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1,750 | 6.06% | 2.94% | 14.38% | 14.38% | [10] Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: The report provides charts of coke inventories in 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventories, 247 steel mill coking plant coke inventories, and total coke inventories from 2021 to 2026 [13][15][16][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The report provides charts of mine-mouth coking coal inventories, all-sample independent coking plant coking coal inventories, and port coking coal inventories from 2021 to 2026 [22][23][24]. - **Other Charts**: The report also includes charts of domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production, coking plant operation, etc [27][30][31]. Market Outlook - **Coke**: Due to the decrease in coke output and hot metal output, as well as the explosion at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, the market negative feedback expectations have increased. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from fundamentals, the coke futures are expected to remain weak at a low level [36]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market maintains a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The upward momentum of coal prices may rely on policy drivers. Without policy intervention, coal prices may remain low before the Spring Festival [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract LC2605.GFE of lithium carbonate futures closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 150,920 yuan/ton, down 4.39% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis was 3,660 points, with a positive basis (spot premium), which weakened by 1,070 points from the previous day, and the basis strengthened overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 27,698 lots, an increase of 240 lots (+0.87%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts increased overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - Market expectations of a slowdown in the terminal demand growth rate of new - energy vehicles are rising [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The closing price and settlement price of the main futures contract were 147,260 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan/ton and down 5,860 yuan/ton from the previous day respectively, and down 8,800 yuan/ton and 8,160 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium concentrate decreased compared to the previous week, while the price of South African CIF China lithium ore remained stable [6]. - **Lithium Mica**: The prices of various grades of lithium mica in China decreased compared to the previous day and increased compared to the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 150,920 yuan/ton, down 6,930 yuan/ton from the previous day and 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide decreased, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate increased [6]. - **Ternary Materials and Related Products**: The prices of ternary precursors (523, 622, 111) remained unchanged from the previous day and increased from the previous week; the prices of some ternary materials decreased from the previous day and increased from the previous week; the price of electrolyte (manganese - acid lithium) remained unchanged from the previous day and increased from the previous week; the price of cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged from the previous day and increased from the previous week; the price of hexa - fluorophosphoric acid remained unchanged from the previous day and decreased from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts show the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, iron - phosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts show the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the main lithium carbonate futures contract [15][16].

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 19 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 避险需求给予金价支撑 核心观点 上周金价上行后呈现高位震荡运行，纽约金于 4600 美元一线震 荡。1 月上旬白银较黄金上涨明显，金银比值下行明显，后半周白银 逐渐走弱，短期资金了结意愿较强。目前已处于 50 左右，为近 14 年 以来的低位，这很大程度上将促使套利资金向黄金流入。短期可关注 金银比值的向上修复。 拉长周期来看，本轮金价上涨的主要动力来自于流动性，内外宏 观宽松的背景下，12 月以来流动性持续上升，白银和有色持续上升， 做多氛围浓厚，黄金也随之上行。短期宏观氛围冷却，资金了结意愿 上升，流动性下降，金价或有所回落，但盘面走弱导致全市场的避险 需求升温，将给予金价支撑。此外，可关注月底美联储议息会议。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the CSI 1000 Index has broken through the upper edge of the previous shock range and risen rapidly, but entered a shock consolidation phase after January 13. The long - term upward logic of the index is solid, but it is likely to consolidate in the short term. Buying the butterfly spread strategy of CSI 1000 index options can match the current market expectation [2][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Condition Analysis - The CSI 1000 Index broke through the upper edge of the shock range due to multiple factors such as the strong resilience of macro - economic data, positive policy expectations, and net inflow of incremental funds. After January 13, it entered a shock consolidation period [2] - As of January 16, the position PCR of CSI 1000 index options was 92.97%, at the 74.6% quantile level since 2023. The decline of position PCR since January 13 indicates that market sentiment has cooled [3] - As of January 16, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 21.90%, at the 55.0% quantile level since 2023. The decline of implied volatility since January 13 shows that investors' expectation of high - volatility risk has returned to normal [4] Factors Affecting the Index Policy - related - The macro - policy has a strong determination to stabilize domestic demand. The macro - economic data in December 2025 showed strong resilience, and the policy will focus on promoting the economic positive cycle by boosting residents' consumption [5][6] - The policy has a clear determination to support scientific and technological innovation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has set goals for key technological breakthroughs and the development of strategic emerging industries, which strongly support the CSI 1000 Index [7] Capital - related - As of January 15, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.69 trillion yuan, and the margin trading purchase amount increased significantly. The active margin trading funds have promoted the market rally [8] - On January 14, the minimum margin ratio for margin trading was raised from 80% to 100%. This adjustment reflects the regulator's intention to guide rational investment and prevent systemic risks. With the significant increase in stock valuations, investors' profit - taking intention has risen, and the index is likely to consolidate in the short term [9] Strategy Recommendation - Buying the butterfly spread strategy of CSI 1000 index options can match the current market expectation. This strategy is composed of three option contracts with different strike prices in arithmetic progression and the same expiration date and type. It can limit both maximum profit and maximum loss, and has a relatively high probability of profit within a certain range. It can capture potential mild - rise returns and control callback risks [10][11]

期货研究报告 正文目录 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 ............................................... 4 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 ................................................... 4 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 19 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 19 日 橡胶周报 利多因素消化 橡胶冲高回落 核心观点 2 橡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 19, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from January 12 - 16, 2026, shows values ranging from - 106 to - 100 yuan/ton, with 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads all at 0 [1][2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented, with values such as - 13.39, - 7.53, etc. for different dates [7] Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided, e.g., 5 - 1 spread for rubber is - 480 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - commodity spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are given for January 12 - 16, 2026 [9] - Basis data for rubber, methanol, etc. from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented [10] Black Metals - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown, e.g., 5 - 1 spread for rebar is - 73 yuan/ton [19] - Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are provided for January 12 - 16, 2026 [19] - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, etc. from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented [20] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented, with values like 360 yuan/ton for copper on January 16 [29] London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss for copper, aluminum, etc. on January 16, 2026, are provided [32] Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented [38] - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc. are given, e.g., 5 - 1 spread for soybeans No.1 is 78 yuan/ton [38] - Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. for January 12 - 16, 2026, are provided [38] Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented [50] - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. are given, e.g., next - month - current - month spread for CSI 300 is - 40.6 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both domestic Shanghai rubber futures and synthetic rubber futures may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Monday. The Shanghai rubber futures (RU2605) are expected to be weak in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, while the synthetic rubber futures (BR2603) also have a similar outlook [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall reference: weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With Thailand and Cambodia's armistice, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. China's Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, but Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The downstream domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. As the upward trend of the energy and chemical sector weakens, the Shanghai rubber futures maintained a volatile and weak trend on the night of last Friday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall reference: weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, resulting in some production facilities reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the volatile and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has increased. As the upward trend of the energy and chemical sector weakens, the synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on the night of last Friday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price rally narrowed and stabilized this week. The price is expected to remain low due to warm winter temperatures, sufficient overall supply, weak demand, and insufficient fundamental support [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Reference View**: The intraday and medium - term view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation" [5]. - **Core Logic**: As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 6 yuan/ton. In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, reducing residents' heating demand. Although the temperature will drop significantly in late January, port and downstream power plant coal stocks are sufficient as of now. The coal market atmosphere is weak, and prices remain low. This week, main - producing area coal mines maintained normal production. Non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable, but due to the decline in power coal demand, some coal mines faced increased shipping pressure, and the mine - end atmosphere began to weaken. As of January 15, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2705.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [5].