1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean - related products**: Uncertainties in US soybean biodiesel policies and potential Sino - US soybean trade negotiations have led to price fluctuations. Domestic soybean products face supply - side pressures, with prices expected to be weak in the short - term [3][5][8]. - **Rapeseed - related products**: Temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce imports, but alternative sources can partially compensate. If imports from Canada significantly decrease, domestic rapeseed oil and meal may experience inventory reduction [3][4][6]. - **Palm oil**: Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory - building period, but production growth is expected to slow. Indonesian biodiesel policies may support prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Corn and corn starch**: Externally, factors like Fed rate - cut expectations and US corn exports support prices, but northern hemisphere corn harvests and inventory - building expectations limit upside. Domestically, the market is in a tug - of - war, with prices expected to remain low in the short - term [7]. - **Peanuts**: New - season peanuts are expected to have a bumper harvest, and falling production costs put pressure on prices. However, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking provides some support, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Livestock products**: Pig prices are weak due to over - supply and low feed prices. Egg prices are also under pressure from supply, but consumption during the peak season may provide some support [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 11 | New domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, and US soybean policies face obstacles. Supply is expected to increase. | 3800 - 3830 | 3950 - 4000 | Sideways to bearish | Hold short positions [8][13] | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. | 3600 - 3630 | 3770 - 3800 | Bearish | Light - short positions [5][13] | | | Peanut 11 | New - season bumper harvest, cost reduction, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see [9][13] | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Weak fundamentals and continued inventory - building. | 8200 - 8230 | 8450 - 8500 | Bearish | Wait and see [3][13] | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and potential inventory reduction. | 9500 - 9600 | 10300 - 10333 | Sideways to bullish | Light - long positions [3][4][13] | | | Palm oil 01 | Poor production performance in Malaysia and potential weakening of exports. | 9200 - 9208 | 9700 - 9736 | Sideways to bullish | Light - long positions [4][13] | | Proteins | Soybean meal 01 | Obstacles in US biodiesel promotion and uncertainties in Sino - US trade. | 2900 - 2950 | 3030 - 3050 | Bearish | Light - short positions [5][13] | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and poor cost - performance. | 2365 - 2400 | 2572 - 2584 | Sideways to bearish | Wait and see [6][13] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Bearish fundamentals. | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously [7][13] | | | Starch 11 | Corn price decline and relatively loose supply. | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously [7][13] | | Livestock | Pig 11 | Feed price rebound and strong capacity - reduction expectations. | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Searching for a bottom | Switch to wait - and - see [10][13] | | | Egg 11 | Capacity pressure and peak - season consumption expectations. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Searching for a bottom | Buy on dips [10][13] | 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery arbitrage**: For most varieties, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, except for soybean meal 3 - 5 (positive spread), pig 1 - 3 (buy near - term and sell far - term on dips), and egg 10 - 1 (buy near - term and sell far - term on dips) [14][15]. - **Inter - commodity arbitrage**: For some oil and protein products, different strategies such as bearish, bullish, and waiting - and - seeing are recommended [15]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - Basis data for various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy products, and livestock are provided, showing price changes and basis fluctuations [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily data**: Import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates are presented, including CNF prices, landed duty - paid prices, and break - even soybean meal costs [18][19]. - **Weekly data**: Inventory and operating rate data for soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts are provided, reflecting supply - side changes [20][21]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are given [21]. - **Weekly data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rates and inventory are presented [22]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Daily data**: Data on live pig prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, and related ratios are provided, showing the current state of the pig market [23]. - **Weekly data**: Key data for eggs and live pigs, including supply, demand, profit, and related prices, are presented [25][26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (pigs and eggs)**: Charts show the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices and related data, helping to analyze market trends [29][32][33]. - **Oils and oilseeds**: Charts display data on Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and related basis and spreads, as well as data on soybean oil and peanut - related indicators [41][52][56]. - **Feed**: Charts present data on corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal, including prices, inventory, consumption, and spreads [60][64][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Charts show the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as corn option trading volume, open interest, and related ratios [94][95]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Charts show the warehouse receipt data for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [99][100][101].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: International sugar prices face downward pressure due to India's planned resumption of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season and other bearish factors, but the downside of raw sugar is limited. In the domestic market, there is limited room for a rebound after the release of negative factors, and a bearish outlook is maintained in the medium to long term [3]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to improve, and the demand for wood pulp replenishment may increase. Policy expectations and sentiment have improved, providing some support for pulp at a low valuation, but caution is still needed regarding the upside potential [4]. - **Offset Paper**: There are expectations of improved demand as the peak season approaches, which provides some support for the spot price. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. Consideration can be given to inter - month reverse spreads and medium - term long - pulp short - paper arbitrage [6]. - **Cotton**: Both the international and domestic cotton markets are affected by factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the balance between old - season supply tightening and new - season supply expectations. Short - term prices may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. - **Apples**: The main logic is the expected difference in the new season. As the new season harvest approaches, the output and high - quality fruit rate will be verified. Short - term prices are expected to remain within a range [8]. - **Jujubes**: The weather trading window is shortening, and the futures premium over the spot has converged. The inventory is being depleted faster, and the market is in a state of seeking direction. Aggressive investors can short at high levels, and cautious investors can consider reverse spreads [10]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, short at high levels, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 5480 - 5500 and a pressure range of 5580 - 5600. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 495 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14300 - 14400 [18]. Part II: Market News Changes 1. Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 5.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. As of September 10, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 20.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of apple production, with one showing a 2.03% decrease and the other a 2.35% increase [19]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area is stable. The early - maturing variety Red General has entered the market, with significant price differences. The transaction price in the northwest production area is high, and the price in the sales area is stable [20][21]. 2. Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9321 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The market is in a state of seeking direction [22]. 3. Sugar Market India plans to start sugar exports in the new season starting in October 2025. The spot sugar price in Guangxi and Kunming has remained relatively stable, with some merchants slightly reducing their quotes [24]. 4. Pulp Market Some suppliers have reduced the price of non - NBSK softwood pulp by $10/ton, while most suppliers intend to keep the price of imported NBSK unchanged. South American hardwood pulp suppliers have raised prices, but Chinese buyers are reluctant to accept the increase [27]. 5. Offset Paper Market The mainstream transaction prices in different regions such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Sichuan vary, with some prices decreasing and some remaining stable. The market is in a state of weak demand and more wait - and - see sentiment [28][29]. 6. Cotton Market In August 2025, Brazil exported 7.8 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 30.7%. The 2025/26 annual export volume is expected to reach 310 tons. The new - cotton picking progress in 2025 is 91%, and the processing progress is 31%. The cotton situation in different countries such as Pakistan, Vietnam, and India shows different import and export trends [30][31][32]. Part III: Market Review 1. Futures Market Review The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided, showing different trends [33]. 2. Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented, with different price trends [40]. Part IV: Basis Situation No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [51]. Part V: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range fluctuations, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [60]. Part VI: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [66]. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The current warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [85]. Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil price fluctuated widely recently. Given trade uncertainties, it's advisable to consider buying out - of - the - money call options and a long position in the bean oil - meal ratio. The Y2601 contract long positions could be reduced and observed [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports. If so, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. A light long position can be taken [3][4]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory build - up period, but the production increase expectation slows down in September - October. The price has support below. A light long position can be considered [4]. - The soybean meal price is expected to decline. Short positions or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [5]. - The rapeseed meal price is expected to adjust downward. The market is waiting for the results of China - Canada negotiations [6]. - The corn and corn starch prices are under pressure. Short positions can be held cautiously, and certain option strategies can be considered [7]. - The soybean No.1 price is weak. Short positions can be continued to be held [8]. - The peanut price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by the expected increase in production and the cost decrease [9]. - The live pig price is weak. After the confirmation of capacity reduction, long positions in the 2601 contract can be considered. For cautious investors, a long - near and short - far spread strategy can be held [10]. - The egg price has fallen to a historical low. It's advisable to avoid short - selling blindly. Aggressive investors can buy the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 11 | Domestic new soybeans are gradually on the market, and the supply is increasing. | 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton | 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton | Sideways with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Uncertainty in Sino - US trade, supply expectation is changeable. | 3600 - 3630 yuan/ton | 3770 - 3800 yuan/ton | Declining | Try short positions lightly | | | Peanut 11 | Expected increase in production, cost reduction, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support. | 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton | 8020 - 8162 yuan/ton | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Weak fundamentals, continuous inventory build - up. | 8260 - 8300 yuan/ton | 8500 - 8530 yuan/ton | Wide - range fluctuation | Wait and see | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, alternative supply, and de - stocking expectation. | 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton | 10300 - 10333 yuan/ton | Sideways with an upward bias | Light long positions | | | Palm oil 01 | Poor production performance of Malaysian palm oil, possible weakening of exports. | 9200 - 9208 yuan/ton | 9700 - 9736 yuan/ton | Sideways with an upward bias | Light long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Uncertainty in Sino - US trade, supply expectation is changeable. | 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton | 3090 - 3100 yuan/ton | Declining | Try short positions lightly | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, poor cost - performance, and weak consumption. | 2365 - 2400 yuan/ton | 2572 - 2584 yuan/ton | Sideways with a downward bias | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Weak fundamentals, price under pressure. | 2100 - 2120 yuan/ton | 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Cost reduction, supply is slightly loose, price follows the downward trend. | 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton | 2580 - 2590 yuan/ton | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction. | 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton | 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton | Bottom - hunting | Turn to wait and see | | | Egg 11 | Capacity pressure and consumption peak season expectation. | 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton | 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton | Bottom - hunting | Buy at a low price | [13] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For most varieties, it's recommended to wait and see. For the 01 soybean meal - 05 soybean meal spread, a long - near and short - far strategy can be considered, with a target of 300 - 400. For the live pig 1 - 3 and egg 10 - 1 spreads, a long - near and short - far strategy can be considered at a low price [14][15]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: For the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a short - position operation can be considered; for the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, a long - position operation can be considered; for the 01 bean oil - meal ratio, a long - position operation can be considered [15]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including soybeans, oils, protein feeds, energy products, and livestock products [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and delivery months, including CNF prices, arrival - at - port duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as the port soybean inventory, oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Live Pig**: It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs, including prices, production costs, profits, slaughter data, etc [21][25]. - **Egg**: It provides the daily and weekly data of eggs, including prices, supply, demand, and profits [22][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a large number of charts to track the fundamentals of livestock, oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, including production, consumption, inventory, price spreads, and basis of various varieties [26][37][45] 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility charts of various varieties and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio charts of corn options [85][87][88] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the warehouse receipt situation charts of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [90][91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's September interest - rate meeting is approaching. The market is pricing in the possibility of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar index is weakening. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" season in China is coming, and the demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally. However, the upward space still requires positive resonance between fundamentals and macro factors. The realization of rate cuts will affect the subsequent market rhythm. If the rate cut is 25bp as expected, there may be profit - taking; if it exceeds expectations, the market may be stronger[12][13]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment suggestions. For example, copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving price center, and it is recommended to buy on dips; zinc prices are in a range - bound pattern, and it is advisable to be slightly bullish on dips; the aluminum industry chain is in a complex situation, and different products have different strategies such as temporary observation, short - position holding, and long - position reduction[3][4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The "central bank super - week" is here. The Fed's rate - cut expectation trading may continue, and non - ferrous metals are fluctuating strongly. China's August economic data shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising. The US consumer confidence is at a four - month low, further consolidating the expectation of a Fed rate cut this week. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month[12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Different Metals**: - **Copper**: The price center is expected to move up. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options[3][14]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern. Consider being slightly bullish on dips, with an upper pressure range of 22800 - 23200 and a lower support range of 21600 - 21800[4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is recommended to observe temporarily, with an upper pressure range of 21300 - 21700 and a lower support range of 20200 - 20500; for alumina, short positions can be held cautiously, with an upper pressure range of 3500 - 3700 and a lower support range of 2700 - 2900; for recycled aluminum alloy, long positions can be reduced, with an upper pressure range of 20800 - 21000 and a lower support range of 20000 - 20300[5][17]. - **Tin**: Observe before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, with an upper pressure range of 280000 - 290000 and a lower support range of 260000 - 265000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options[6][7]. - **Lead**: Long positions can be held, with a short - term support at 16700 - 16800 and an upper pressure at 17400 - 17500. A wide - range option straddle strategy can also be considered[8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, adopt a dip - buying strategy, with an upper pressure at 125000 - 128000 yuan and a lower support at 118000 - 120000 yuan; for stainless steel, be slightly bullish on dips, with a support at 12700 - 12800 and an upper pressure at 13000 - 13200[9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80560 with a decline of 0.40%, zinc closed at 22280 with an increase of 0.11%, etc.[19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal contracts have different net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors. For example, the alumina (AO2601) contract has a 1.81% increase, with a strong short position of the main force, and is affected by non - main - force funds[21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80690 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.80%, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 22180 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%[23][25]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are presented for each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes[27][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various charts related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the Shanghai - copper and London - copper premium/discount[61]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metal options are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and changes in trading volume and open interest. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility[77].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats rose during the day. The pre - holiday stockpiling before the double festivals supported the oil prices to some extent. There were strong expectations of a consumption peak season and decreasing supply in the fourth quarter, but the high domestic inventory and weak spot market sentiment limited the increase of soybean oil prices. For the Y2601 contract, it was advisable to hold long positions, with support at 8300 - 8330 yuan/ton and resistance at 8460 - 8500 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money call options was also recommended. For rapeseed oil, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseeds, the market expected a reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The increase in imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia could partly make up for the supply. Palm oil was in a seasonal inventory - building period, but the export demand improved, and there was an expectation of an increase in the biodiesel blending ratio [3][4]. - **Feed Grains**: For corn and corn starch, the external market had some factors supporting the prices, but the expected high yield in the Northern Hemisphere and inventory build - up in the US would limit the increase. In the domestic market, it was a game between low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It was recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - **Grains and Beans**: The price of soybeans No. 1 continued to decline. There was an expectation of a good harvest of new soybeans, and with the increase in supply, it was advisable to hold short positions. For peanuts, there was an expectation of an increase in production, and the seasonal supply pressure affected the prices, but the pre - holiday stockpiling had a certain supporting effect [8][9]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of live pigs fluctuated weakly. There was a strong expectation of capacity reduction, and it was recommended to hold long positions. The price of eggs fluctuated and was at a low level. It was recommended to buy at low prices considering the consumption peak season [10]. Summary by Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Soybeans No. 1 and No. 2 were expected to be bearish or in adjustment. Peanuts were in an adjustment phase, and it was advisable to short lightly. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to hold long positions or buy at low prices [13]. - **Protein Feed**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal were in different market conditions. Soybean meal was expected to be weakly bearish, and it was advisable to wait and see. Rapeseed meal was expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to buy at low prices [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch were under pressure, and it was recommended to hold short positions [13]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Live pigs were expected to rebound, and it was recommended to hold long positions. Eggs were in a process of finding a bottom, and it was advisable to buy at low prices [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For some varieties like soybean meal 3 - 5, it was recommended to conduct positive spreads. For others, it was mostly recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For some oil - related spreads, different strategies such as shorting, going long, or waiting and seeing were recommended. For the oil - meal ratio of soybeans, it was recommended to go long [15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provided spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein feeds, energy and by - products, and livestock and poultry [16]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: Included import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided inventory and operating rate data of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Showed the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [20]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [21]. 3. Livestock and Poultry - **Daily Data**: Included daily data of live pigs and eggs, such as prices and price changes [22][23]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided weekly key data of live pigs and eggs, including supply, demand, cost, and profit data [24][26]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: Included charts of live pig and egg futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as piglet prices and chicken苗 prices [27][31][33] - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Included charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanut production, inventory, trading volume, and spreads [36][46][55] - **Feed**: Included charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed - related, and soybean meal - related data, such as prices, inventory, and spreads [61][69][73][80] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of historical volatility of various varieties and options trading volume and open interest data of corn [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [98][99][100]

期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月16日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周二SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72835元/吨，环比上 一工作日上涨455元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.19-7.38万元/吨，均价7. 285万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨400元/吨；工业级碳酸锂7-7.1 2万元/吨，均价7.06万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨400元/吨，现 货成交价格重心呈震荡上行态势。 碳酸锂期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft commodities: International raw sugar has mixed factors. Brazilian sugarcane production has recovered, but there are also factors like narrowed sugar - ethanol price spread and fires. In China, the new sugar - making season has started with high imports, causing supply pressure. For pulp, although the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, policy expectations and sentiment have improved, providing some support. For double - offset paper, the upward drive is unclear despite the approaching peak season. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate both overseas and in China. In the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to be in a range, and for jujubes, short - selling is recommended [3][4][7][8]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use an interval approach due to the new - season expected difference and trading value disputes. The support range is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, short - sell at high prices as the overall commodity sentiment is strong and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter. The support range is 10500 - 11000, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, use short - term operations as raw sugar rebounds slightly and Zhengzhou sugar stabilizes at a low level. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range as the supply pressure remains and the finished paper price is low. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200. For Double - offset Paper 2601, short - sell on rebounds as the approaching peak season supports the price, but the upward height may be limited. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, use an interval approach as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and state - reserve selling news cause price fluctuations. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400 [18]. Part II: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a 44.59% month - on - month increase but an 18.39% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative exports were about 464,300 tons, a 6.0% year - on - year decrease. As of September 11, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 255,800 tons, a 50,400 - ton week - on - week decrease and a 143,100 - ton year - on - year decrease. The estimated national apple production is 37.3664 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 season. In the spot market, Shandong's apple prices are stable, and the prices of early - maturing varieties vary [19][20]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9321 tons, a 0.95% month - on - month decrease but a 78.32% year - on - year increase. The market arrival volume is low, and the trading atmosphere is light [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In August, the sugarcane yield in Brazil's central - southern region was 77.5 tons per hectare, a 1.6% decrease from 2024, and the sugar - extraction rate decreased by 2.9% to 144.2 kg per ton. On September 15, the closing price of ICE raw sugar was 16.67 cents per pound. The estimated cost of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment is 4556 yuan per ton within the quota and 5805 yuan per ton outside the quota. Spot sugar prices in some regions are stable or slightly down [24]. - **Pulp Market**: Due to low domestic prices and sufficient supply, customers demand a price cut for imported bleached softwood pulp. Some suppliers may adjust prices. The price of imported NBSK is stable at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. Suppliers have raised the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In Shandong, the mainstream price of high - white double - offset paper is 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton, and some prices are down. In other regions like Guangdong, Beijing, and Sichuan, prices are stable or slightly adjusted, and the market demand is weak [28][29]. - **Cotton Market**: Brazil's cotton picking progress is 90%, and the processing progress exceeds 30%. Egypt's cotton net export signing decreased by 60.7% week - on - week. Australia's cotton harvest progress is about 85%, and new - cotton sowing has started in some areas. In July 2025, the US cotton product import volume decreased by 1.57% year - on - year, and the import volume from China decreased significantly [30][31]. Part III: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Apple 2601 is 8269, a 0.42% decrease; Jujube 2601 is 10805, a 0.55% decrease; Sugar 2601 is 5547, a 0.04% decrease; Pulp 2511 is 5068, a 0.24% increase; Cotton 2601 is 13895, a 0.07% increase [33]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan per catty, unchanged month - on - month but a 0.20 - yuan increase year - on - year; jujubes are 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a 0.10 - yuan month - on - month decrease and a 5.30 - yuan year - on - year decrease; sugar is 5890 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month but a 500 - yuan year - on - year decrease; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but a 400 - yuan year - on - year decrease; double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) is 4500 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but a 600 - yuan year - on - year decrease; cotton is 15300 yuan per ton, a 51 - yuan month - on - month increase and a 426 - yuan year - on - year increase [40]. Part IV: Basis Situation No relevant content provided. Part V: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples is 167, a 32 - point month - on - month increase and a 447 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes is 395, a 435 - point month - on - month increase and a 1140 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of sugar is 23, unchanged month - on - month but a 9 - point year - on - year decrease, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton is 35, unchanged month - on - month but a 70 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see temporarily [60]. Part VI: Futures Position Situation No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 8900, a 226 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2804 - unit year - on - year increase. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 11268, a 57 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2244 - unit year - on - year decrease. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 244834, a 186 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 236181 - unit year - on - year decrease. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 4759, a 140 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2638 - unit year - on - year decrease [86]. Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned.

Group 1: Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank super - week is coming, and the trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may continue, causing non - ferrous metals to fluctuate strongly. The degree of interest - rate cut fulfillment will affect the subsequent trend. China's economic data in August shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" is coming, and the demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally, but the upward space still requires the positive resonance of each variety's fundamentals and the macro - environment [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The central bank super - week is here, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation trading may continue. The fulfillment of the interest - rate cut will affect the subsequent trend. China's economic data in August shows a weak situation, and the expectation of policy easing is rising. The weak US employment data boosts the interest - rate cut expectation, and the US dollar is weak. The demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally during the "Golden September and Silver October" [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy**: - **Copper**: The recent rise in copper prices has suppressed domestic downstream demand, and domestic social inventories have increased. However, the total inventory is still low. US manufacturing is in an expansion cycle, and copper demand is strong. Domestic smelter production may decline in September. The price center of Shanghai copper is expected to move up, with a support range of 79,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 81,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: The trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is volatile. Zinc prices are stronger overseas and weaker domestically. Downstream procurement is relatively light, and inventories are slightly increasing. The recommended strategy is to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 21,600 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,200 yuan/ton [4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: - **Aluminum**: The main short - positions in Shanghai aluminum have increased. It is recommended to exit long positions, with a support range of 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton. - **Alumina**: The spot price is falling, and production capacity is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a support range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/ton. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The price is supported by high scrap purchase prices, and demand has improved marginally. It is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5][14]. - **Tin**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to be bearish, with a support range of 250,000 - 255,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce long positions [6][16]. - **Lead**: The US dollar is回调, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation still exists. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and there may be a resumption of production in October. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a support range of 16,600 - 16,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,200 - 17,400 yuan/ton [8][17]. - **Nickel**: The price fluctuates due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. The supply of refined nickel is increasing slowly, and demand is stable. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 115,000 - 116,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [9][17]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is effective. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may pick up. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [9][17]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are provided, such as copper closing at 80,940 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, zinc at 22,310 yuan/ton with a 0.02% change, etc. [18] Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metals contracts are presented, including alumina, copper, zinc, etc. [20] Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as copper spot price at 81,100 yuan/ton with a 0.02% change, zinc at 22,250 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change, etc. [21][23] Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships [26][29][31]. Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal, relevant arbitrage charts are provided, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [58][60]. Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal, relevant option charts are provided, such as copper's option historical volatility, zinc's option weighted implied volatility, etc. [75][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil market is currently mixed with both bullish and bearish factors. The Y2601 contract may oscillate widely between 8250 - 8450 in the short - term and is expected to rise in the long - term. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options or going long on the 01 contract bean oil - meal ratio [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The rapeseed market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [3]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long with a light position [4]. - The corn and corn starch markets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [6]. - The hog market is in a low - level consolidation phase. It is advisable to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - The egg market has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling rashly and consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [9]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - For soybeans (including bean one and bean two), the supply is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be bearish or volatile. For peanuts, the new season has increased production and reduced costs, and the market is expected to be volatile. For soy oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For rapeseed oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For palm oil, the market is expected to be slightly bearish. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the market is expected to be volatile. For corn and starch, the market is under pressure. For hogs, the market is expected to rebound. For eggs, the market is expected to find a bottom [12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal (go long on the spread) and the 1 - 3 spread of hogs (go long on the spread at a low price) and the 10 - 1 spread of eggs (go long on the spread at a low price). For inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to go short on the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, go long on the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and go long on the 01 bean oil - meal ratio [13][14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, such as the CNF price, import duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides daily and weekly data on hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [21][23][25]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a large number of charts related to the livestock, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and consumption data of various commodities [26][35][60]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the historical volatility charts of various commodities' options, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the warehouse receipt quantity charts of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugarcane production recovery exceeds expectations, putting pressure on the global sugar market. In China, new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and imports are high, but the spot price is stable due to thin inventory. Zhengzhou sugar futures are hovering at a low level [4]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand for pulp replenishment may increase, but the magnitude is uncertain. The pulp market is stabilizing, and the recent listing of offset paper may support pulp futures. However, the upward drive for pulp prices is insufficient, and it is likely to trade in a low - level range [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. But the fundamental situation is still weak, and the upward price movement may be limited [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA September report has a slightly positive impact on the global cotton market, but the market is still under pressure. In China, there is a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and cotton futures are likely to fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Apples**: The impact of the old - season apples on the market is coming to an end. The market is focused on the new - season production and quality. Apple futures are expected to trade within a range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price fell sharply. The inventory is being depleted, and the market is in a state of seeking a direction. Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract, while cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, consider shorting at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, stay on the sidelines. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds. For Cotton 2601, use a range - trading strategy [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of September, the cold - storage inventory decreased. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the market in the sales area is also stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. The market in the sales area is light, and the mentality of holders is divided [23]. - **Sugar Market**: The USDA's September report shows the sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio in the US. The ICE 11 - sugar non - commercial net short position increased. The domestic sugar spot price is stable [24][26]. - **Pulp Market**: The decline in domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has suppressed import volume. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The market is basically stable. The trading atmosphere is weak, and prices in different regions are stable [30][31]. - **Cotton Market**: India's cotton production and import expectations have increased, and its ending inventory has risen. In the US, the sales and inventory data of clothing and fabric in July show certain trends [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided [34]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented [39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [51]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range - bound trading, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [68]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [89]. - **Sugar Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [96]. - **Cotton Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [101].