1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium salt market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. With the peak demand season and pre - National Day restocking by downstream enterprises, the short - term inventory depletion trend is expected to accelerate. Downstream enterprises are advised to seize futures buy - hedge opportunities according to their risk management needs [3][5]. - The industrial silicon market shows a situation of weak reality and strong policy expectations. The supply is steadily increasing, and the demand is driven by polysilicon. The price is in a stalemate, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to take an interval trading approach and consider taking profits on long positions at high prices [6]. - The polysilicon market has a supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental pattern. Although the overseas demand for battery cells is good, the market is still in a state of oversupply. The price operation logic depends on future policy clarity and implementation. It is advisable to consider buying on dips and participating with a light position [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Spot Prices a. Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, it is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises should seize high - price selling - hedge opportunities, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - price stockpiling or buying - hedge opportunities. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 80,000 - 82,000 [13]. - For industrial silicon 11, it is expected to oscillate within an interval. It is recommended to use an interval trading approach and preferably sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low prices. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 8,900 - 9,000 [13]. - For polysilicon 11, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is advisable to consider buying on dips and participating with a light position. The support level is 51,000 - 52,000, and the pressure level is 56,000 - 57,000 [13]. b. Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium Carbonate | 72,680 | 2.14% | 482,790 | 309,446 | 44 | 38,963 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,800 | 0.63% | 498,210 | 290,948 | 12,960 | 49,905 | | Polysilicon | 53,545 | - 0.34% | 237,981 | 132,212 | - 2,686 | 7,850 | [14] Second Part: Fundamental Situation a. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, close to the weekly production record high. All lithium - extraction processes saw an increase in production. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, a decrease of 1,580 tons from the previous week. The inventory is still at a high level, but the inventory of lithium salt enterprises is shifting downstream, and the downstream inventory has reached a new high [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream material factories are generally in a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. During the peak demand season, there is a certain demand for pre - National Day stockpiling, and the purchase willingness is relatively strong when the price is low [3]. b. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The supply of industrial silicon is steadily increasing, mainly due to the increase in furnace starts in the northwest region. The inventory has been in a high - level consolidation state since August [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: The polysilicon industry has a strong price - support intention, with some enterprises starting to stockpile materials, while the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries perform generally, with downstream enterprises restocking as needed [6]. c. Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: In September, the polysilicon production remained at a high level, and the supply was continuously abundant. There was a slight inventory accumulation this week [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: The overseas demand for battery cells is good, but the overall market is still in a state of oversupply. Pulling - crystal factories are resistant to high - price silicon materials and mainly purchase as needed [7].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 沪铜近期实现向上突破，站稳8万整数关口，创出二季度以来新高 。美国8月非农数据不及预期，且大幅下修前值。美国8月PPI低于 预期，通胀较为温和，市场计价美联储年内3次降息的可能性，美 元指数走弱，提振铜价。近期铜价的走高一定程度抑制了国内下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The latest news on raw sugar is bearish. Brazil has increased its estimates of sugarcane planting area and production, and the harvest is expected to exceed market expectations. Domestic sugar prices have stopped falling, with low inventory and high import processing costs providing some support. The future trend depends on the performance of raw sugar in the international market [4]. - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly. The market is weak, and the supply and demand situation remains to be observed. Although the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated the supply pressure, it is necessary to pay attention to when producers will reduce shipments to the Chinese market. The price is expected to be range - bound at a low level [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable, and the market expects an improvement in demand during the peak season. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the profit and price increase may be limited [8][9]. - **Cotton**: The external market is under pressure, but there are also some supporting factors. The domestic market is in a game between tight old - season supply and loose new - season expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuates. The market is mainly concerned about the difference between the expected and actual situation of the new season's production and quality. The price is expected to move within a range [12]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows a weak and volatile trend. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the price has rebounded seasonally. The new - season production and quality will be determined in September [13]. Trading Strategies - **Sugar**: Due to the bearish news on raw sugar, it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main contract is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure level is 5580 - 5600 [5]. - **Paper Pulp**: Although the price may be supported in the short term, the upward driving force is not clear. It is recommended to be bearish after a rebound. The 2511 contract has a support level of 4900 - 4950 yuan and a pressure level of 5100 - 5200 yuan [7]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4400 - 4500 yuan. Consider reverse calendar spreads and long - pulp short - paper spreads, and try short positions near the pressure level [10]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea. The support range of the 01 contract is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range of the 2601 contract is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500. For options, it is recommended to sell a straddle combination strategy [12]. - **Jujube**: Aggressive investors can hold a reverse calendar spread (short 2601, long 2605) or hold a long position in the 2605 contract and buy a protective put option. It is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread option strategy. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 10500 - 10800 points, and the high - level reference range is 11200 - 11500 points [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500 [21]. - **Jujube 2601**: Take profit on long positions at high prices. The support range is 11000 - 11500, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [21]. - **Sugar 2601**: Wait and see. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600 [21]. - **Paper Pulp 2511**: Short within the range. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200 [21]. - **Double - Offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4350 - 4400 [21]. - **Cotton 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [21]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8329, up 33 (0.40%) for the week [22]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11155, up 155 (1.41%) for the week [22]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5540, up 17 (0.31%) for the week [22]. - Paper Pulp 2511 closed at 4990, down 72 (-1.42%) for the week [22]. - Double - Offset Paper 2601 closed at 4224, with no change data provided [22]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13860, down 140 (-1.00%) for the week [22]. b. Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 0.20 yuan/jin [27]. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous period and 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [27]. - The spot price of sugar is 5890 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of paper pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of cotton is 15248 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and up 487 yuan/ton year - on - year [27]. Third Part: Sector Basis Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the basis of apple, jujube, sugar, paper pulp, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [37][40][42][44][53]. Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [47][48][55] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the previous year [56]. - Jujube has 9188 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous period and an increase of 2906 compared to the previous year [56]. - Sugar has 11599 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 140 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1927 compared to the previous year [56]. - Paper pulp has 245040 warehouse receipts, an increase of 212 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 233942 compared to the previous year [56]. - Cotton has 5017 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 142 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2568 compared to the previous year [56]. Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Apple Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for apple option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios, but no specific analysis content is given [58] b. Sugar Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [59][60][63] c. Cotton Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [67] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: Relevant figures are provided for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [69] - **Export Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for apple export volume, but no specific analysis content is given [71] - **Inventory Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for China's weekly apple storage inventory and that in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [73] b. Jujube - Relevant figures are provided for the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis content is given [75] c. Sugar - Relevant figures are provided for national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import volume, and the spot - futures price difference, but no specific analysis content is given [77][79][82] d. Paper Pulp - Relevant figures are provided for domestic 4 - port paper pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis content is given [88][89] e. Double - Offset Paper - Relevant figures are provided for double - offset paper's capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific analysis content is given [91] f. Cotton - Relevant figures are provided for retail sales, inventory, and other data in the clothing industry in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific analysis content is given [93][94][100]

| 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 期货研究院 新能源产业链周度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Weekly Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月12日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周五SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72398元/吨，环比上 一工作日下跌406元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.09-7.4万元/吨，均价7.2 45万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨；工业级碳酸锂6.96-7. 08万元/吨，均价7.02万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨。碳 酸锂期货价格持续横盘低位震荡，下游材 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is pricing in the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year due to factors such as the under - expected US non - farm data and lower - than - expected PPI, which weakens the US dollar index and boosts metal prices. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" season is coming, and the marginal demand for non - ferrous metals may improve to some extent, but the upward space still requires the positive resonance of each variety's fundamentals and the macro - environment [3][11]. - For copper, the price is expected to rise, and the price center may move up. For aluminum, it is recommended to be short - term long. For zinc, it can be considered to participate in the market with a bullish spread at low prices or be slightly long at low stages. For lead, it is advisable to hold long positions and consider a wide - range option double - selling strategy. For nickel and stainless steel, they can be slightly long at low prices [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro - logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising. The weak US employment data and the continuous slowdown of the ISM manufacturing data have raised concerns about the US economic growth slowdown and recession. However, the moderate inflation has strengthened the positive impact of interest rate cuts. The non - ferrous metals market is fluctuating and rising, and the leading varieties are driving the overall sector to turn warmer [10]. - **Single - side Strategy for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The demand in industries such as electricity, data centers, and new energy vehicles is strong. The domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline. The price is expected to rise, with a short - term upper pressure range of 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices [3][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply and demand of the aluminum industry chain are both changing. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is shifting, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to be short - term long, with an upper pressure range of 21300 - 21700 and a lower support range of 20200 - 20500. For alumina, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously, with an upper pressure range of 3500 - 3700 and a lower support range of 2700 - 2900 [5][13]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The downstream procurement is relatively light, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to participate in the market with a bullish spread at low prices or be slightly long at low stages, with an upper pressure range of 22800 - 23000 and a lower support range of 21800 - 22000 [6]. - **Lead**: The supply of primary and secondary lead is decreasing, and the spot inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a short - term support range of 16500 - 16600 and an upper pressure range of 17200 - 17400. A wide - range option double - selling strategy can also be considered [6]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price rebounds due to the uncertainty of the Indonesian mining end. It is recommended to be slightly long at low prices, with an upper pressure range of 125000 - 128000 yuan and a lower support range of 118000 - 120000 yuan. Stainless steel is recommended to be slightly long at low prices, with a support range of 12700 - 12800 and an upper pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [6]. - **Arbitrage Strategy** - **Copper 2510 - 2511 Contracts**: It is recommended to conduct a positive spread due to the strengthening of the domestic copper fundamentals and the expected interest rate cut [15]. - **Alumina 2502 - 2509 Contracts**: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread as the near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and lead [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - It provides a series of data charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, production capacity, and开工率 for each metal [21][23][32]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report includes various charts related to the arbitrage of non - ferrous metals, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis spreads, and spreads between different contracts for each metal [74][76][78]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - It provides charts of historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various non - ferrous metals, and gives corresponding option strategies [93][94][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract price of soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated and declined this week due to obstacles in the transfer of US soybean oil biodiesel obligations and high inventory and slow sales of domestic oils. The USDA supply - demand report in September was bearish, but the market still expected a future reduction in yield per unit. The domestic soybean oil market remains in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The bullish view on soybean oil in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Y2601 contract, with support at 8300 - 8310 and resistance at 8550 - 8600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed procurement. Increased imports from Russia/Dubai and Australia can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is still uncertainty in Canadian rapeseed trade policies. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased week - on - week. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 9500 - 9600 and resistance at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil continued its seasonal inventory build - up, with the inventory at the end of August increasing by 4.18% month - on - month to 2.2025 million tons. The production from September 1 - 10 decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, and the expected increase in production in September - October is slowing. The continuous decline of US soybean oil exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. However, due to the pre - festival stocking demand in India, the callback space is relatively limited. The price is expected to move sideways, with support at 9074 - 9100 and resistance at 9700 - 9736 [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The price of soybean meal was strong this week. Due to the severe Sino - US trade situation, the price of domestic soybean meal remained firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean meal, with support at 2980 - 3000 and resistance at 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton. The No. 11 contract of Bean No. 2 is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions, with support at 3600 - 3630 and resistance at 3950 - 4000 [3][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce imports. Increased imports from other regions can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is uncertainty in trade policies. Domestic rapeseed meal has a de - stocking expectation. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 2400 - 2438 and resistance at 2632 - 2698 [4][7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, Soybean No. 1 first declined and then rose, showing an overall decline. Early - maturing soybeans in the Northeast market are sporadically on the market, but the purchase volume is small and the price is not representative. As new grains are listed on a large scale, the price of new - season soybeans is expected to become clear. It is not recommended to chase long positions in Soybean No. 1, and it is advisable to short after stabilization. The No. 11 contract should pay attention to the pressure level at 4000 - 4050 yuan/ton and the support level at 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Peanuts**: The planting area of new - season peanuts nationwide increased by 4.01% year - on - year. Although drought in some areas may affect local yields, there is an overall expectation of increased production. The cost of peanut planting in the Northeast and Henan has decreased year - on - year. The expected increase in production and the decline in planting cost put pressure on the futures price. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, the seasonal supply pressure still exists. However, the futures price has partially reflected the increase in production expectation. The short - term decline has slowed down due to the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. It is recommended to trade sideways with a light short position. The No. 11 contract has support at 7500 - 7510 and resistance at 8020 - 8162 [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: This week, the futures prices of corn and corn starch first rose and then fell. In the overseas market, the high - yield of South American corn has been realized, and the pressure of concentrated listing is being released. Although the excellent rate of US corn has slightly decreased and there are concerns about dry weather and pests, the expectation of a good harvest remains unchanged. In the domestic market, there is a game between the purchasing enthusiasm due to low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. For the No. 11 contract of corn, the support range is 2100 - 2120, and the resistance range is 2240 - 2250. For the No. 11 contract of corn starch, the support range is 2400 - 2420, and the resistance range is 2580 - 2590 [8]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs declined weakly over the weekend. The pig - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 6:1, and the breeding profit has deteriorated significantly. Under the "anti - involution" atmosphere of restricting production capacity, the near - term slaughter has increased. It is recommended that cautious investors hold anti - spread positions by shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts, while aggressive investors can hold long positions in the 2511 or 2601 contracts and buy the 2605 contract on dips in the medium term [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs was strong over the weekend, and some areas continued to rebound. There are concerns about high inventory, which puts pressure on the near - term spot. The seasonal peak season in September needs further confirmation. The 10 - contract lags behind the spot price increase due to being in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 10 - or 11 - contract on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between the 11 - and 1 - month contracts [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Sector and Variety Analysis**: Different sectors and varieties have different market logics, supply - demand situations, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, in the oilseed sector, Soybean No. 11 is expected to decline with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to wait and see; in the protein sector, the No. 01 contract of soybean meal is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - **Basis Data**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors such as oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [13][14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The daily data table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF arrival prices, arrival - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data table presents the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the oil - mill inventory of soybean meal, and the coastal - oil - factory inventory of rapeseeds [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Corn and Corn Starch Data**: The table shows the current values, week - on - week changes, and year - on - year changes of indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn in deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Pig Market Data**: It includes the spot prices, cost, profit, slaughter data, and other key weekly data of the pig market, such as the average weekly prices of二元 sows, 7KG outer - ternary piglets, and outer - ternary pigs [19]. - **Egg Market Data**: It provides data on the supply, demand, profit, and related spot prices of the egg market, such as the proportion of large, medium, and small eggs, the production rate, and the inventory in the production and circulation links [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: The charts track the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and other related prices of pigs and eggs [22][24][25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The charts show the monthly production, export volume, inventory, and other data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import profit, import volume, and domestic inventory of palm oil [33][34][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts display the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and crushing profit in the US, as well as the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, inventory, and trading volume [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The charts present the arrival and shipment volumes of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the peanut crushing profit, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in pressing plants [46][48]. - **Feed Sector** - **Corn**: The charts track the spot price, futures closing price, basis, inventory, import volume, and consumption of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn ethanol in different regions [50][52][54]. - **Corn Starch**: The charts show the spot price, futures closing price, basis, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch enterprises [57][59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts display the spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the basis, inventory, and pressing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills [62][64][66]. - **Soybean Meal**: The charts show the flowering and pod - setting rates of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [70][71]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Volatility and Option Data**: The report provides the historical volatility of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][77][80]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indices [83][84][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous sector is expected to oscillate and gradually recover. The expectation of interest rate cuts is warming up, demand expectations are favorable, and market sentiment is improving. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing growth is slowing down, and inflation is moderately rising, further boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts [12]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to strengthen with an upward - moving price center; zinc is expected to fluctuate and rebound with limited downward pressure; aluminum is in a high - level oscillation; tin is in a high - level oscillation with a supply - demand weak pattern; lead is in an interval fluctuation; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part I: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is oscillating and recovering. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, and the US manufacturing growth is slowing down while inflation is moderately rising, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts. The market sentiment is turning positive [12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The supply - demand situation is turning favorable, with demand rising faster than supply. The price center is expected to move up. Suggested to buy on dips, with a support range of 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate and rebound with limited downward pressure. Suggested to be bullish in the short - term, with a support range of 21600 - 21800 and a pressure range of 22800 - 23200 [4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. Aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, alumina is weakly oscillating, and cast aluminum alloy is in a consolidation phase [5][14]. - **Tin**: It is in a high - level oscillation with a supply - demand weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 250000 - 255000 and a pressure range of 270000 - 290000 [6][14]. - **Lead**: It is in an interval fluctuation. It is suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 16600 - 16800 and a pressure range of 17200 - 17400 [8][14]. - **Nickel**: It is expected to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 115000 - 116000 and a pressure range of 123000 - 125000 [9][16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 12700 - 12800 and a pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [9][16]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Quotes**: Copper closed at 80110 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase; zinc closed at 22285 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease; aluminum closed at 20710 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease; alumina closed at 2992 yuan/ton with a 0.99% decrease; tin closed at 273120 yuan/ton with a 0.31% decrease; lead closed at 16865 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase; nickel closed at 121790 yuan/ton with a 0.60% decrease; stainless steel closed at 12915 yuan/ton with a 0.35% decrease; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20285 yuan/ton with a 0.07% decrease [17]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts have different net long - short positions and changes. For example, the main contract of Shanghai Gold (AU2510) has a strong long - position, while the main contract of Shanghai Copper (CU2510) has a relatively strong short - position [19]. Part IV: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper is 80540 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc is 22250 yuan/ton with a 0.36% increase; the average spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum is 20720 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase; the average national price of Antaike alumina is 3204 yuan/ton with a 0.25% decrease [20]. Part V: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of different non - ferrous metals, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][27][30]. Part VI: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of different non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices and the spread between futures contracts [57][59][61]. Part VII: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides charts related to the options of different non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, and aluminum, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume - position changes [74][76][79].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Futures Research Institute's Daily Strategy Report on the Breeding and Oilseed Industry Chain [3][8] - Authors: Wang Liangliang, Hou Zhifang, Wang Yibo, Song Congzhi [1] - Completion time: September 3, 2025 [1] Group 2: Sector Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1, Contract 11 | New domestic soybeans are gradually entering the market, and domestic soybean auctions continue, increasing supply. | 3850 - 3900 | 4145 - 4150 | Sideways with a bearish bias | Hold short positions | | | Soybean No. 2, Contract 11 | Uncertainty in supply due to possible increase in fourth - quarter South American soybean purchases. | 3600 - 3630 | 3950 - 4000 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut, Contract 11 | Expected increase in new - season production, lower costs, and increasing market supply. Pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is starting. | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil, Contract 01 | Uncertainty in fourth - quarter supply, weak current situation, and expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports. | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Sideways with a bullish bias | Go long after stabilization | | | Rapeseed oil, Contract 01 | Increased supply | 9500 - 9580 | 9998 - 10343 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | | Palm oil, Contract 01 | Price pressure from lower US soybean oil prices, but poor Malaysian palm oil production. | 9074 - 9200 | 9736 - 9990 | Sideways adjustment | Go long on dips with a light position | | Proteins | Soybean meal, Contract 01 | Uncertainty in supply due to possible increase in fourth - quarter South American soybean purchases, and decreasing fourth - quarter consumption. | 2980 - 3000 | 3180 - 3200 | Sideways with a bullish bias | Go long after stabilization | | | Rapeseed meal, Contract 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, poor cost - performance, and weak consumption. | 2400 - 2438 | 2632 - 2698 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn, Contract 11 | Fundamental pressure remains, but the decline slows down at low prices. | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Low - level sideways | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch, Contract 11 | Slower decline in corn prices at the cost end, and a slightly loose spot market. | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Low - level sideways | Hold short positions cautiously | | Breeding | Live pigs, Contract 11 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of capacity reduction strengthens. | 13500 - 13750 | 14500 - 15000 | Sideways rebound | Hold long positions | | | Eggs, Contract 10 | Capacity pressure and expected peak consumption season | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Sideways bottom - seeking | Go long on dips | [11] 2.2 Commodity Arbitrage | Sector | Spread Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | Reference Strategy | Reference Target | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1, 11 - 1 | 0 | 7 | - 7 | Wait and see | - | | | Soybean No. 2, 11 - 1 | - 35 | - 32 | - 3 | Wait and see | - | | | Peanut, 10 - 11 | 172 | 180 | - 8 | Wait and see | - | | Oils | Soybean oil, 1 - 5 | 296 | 288 | 8 | Wait and see | - | | | Rapeseed oil, 9 - 1 | 20 | - 173 | 193 | Wait and see | - | | | Palm oil, 9 - 1 | - 22 | - 42 | 20 | Wait and see | - | | Proteins | Soybean meal, 3 - 5 | 182 | 173 | 9 | Bull spread | 300 - 400 | | | Rapeseed meal, 9 - 1 | 41 | 53 | - 12 | Wait and see | - | | Energy and By - products | Corn, 11 - 1 | 11 | 17 | - 6 | Wait and see | - | | | Starch, 11 - 1 | - 33 | - 30 | - 3 | Wait and see | - | | Breeding | Live pigs, 1 - 3 | - 765 | - 765 | 0 | Bull spread on dips | - | | | Eggs, 10 - 1 | - 425 | - 425 | 0 | Bull spread on dips | - | | Oils (Cross - variety) | 01 Soybean oil - Palm oil | - 1002 | - 1066 | 64 | Bearish operation | - | | | 01 Rapeseed oil - Soybean oil | 1361 | 1410 | - 49 | Bullish operation | - | | | 09 Rapeseed oil - Palm oil | 1446 | 1528 | - 82 | Wait and see | - | | Proteins (Cross - variety) | 01 Soybean meal - Rapeseed meal | 545 | 550 | - 5 | Low - level sideways | - | | Oil - meal ratio | 01 Soybean oil - meal ratio | 2.73 | 2.74 | - 0.01 | Bullish operation | 2.8 - 2.82 | | | 09 Rapeseed oil - meal ratio | 3.86 | 3.90 | - 0.04 | Wait and see | - | | Energy and By - products (Cross - variety) | 11 Starch - Corn | 294 | 305 | - 11 | Wait and see | 300 - 400 | [12][13] 2.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | Main Contract Basis | Basis Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4060 | 0 | 99 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3850 | 0 | 67 | - 11 | | | Peanut | 7400 | 0 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean oil | 8750 | 0 | 334 | 0 | | | Rapeseed oil | 9870 | 40 | 143 | - 35 | | | Palm oil | 9400 | 70 | 32 | 124 | | Proteins | Soybean meal | 3020 | 0 | - 6 | - 6 | | | Rapeseed meal | 2600 | 0 | 79 | - 21 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2270 | 0 | 67 | 7 | | | Starch | 2660 | 0 | 173 | - 11 | | Breeding | Live pigs | 13.93 yuan/kg | - 0.10 yuan/kg | 600 | 45 | | | Eggs | 2.80 yuan/jin | 0 | 239 | - 2 | [14] Group 3: Key Data Tracking 3.1 Oilseeds and Oils 3.1.1 Daily Data - Import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates are provided, including CNF prices, landed duty - paid prices, and estimated meal costs when the crushing profit is zero [16][17] 3.1.2 Weekly Data | Variety | Inventory | Operating Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans | Port inventory: 684.20 ( + 3.16) | - | | Soybean meal | Oil mill inventory: 107.88 ( + 2.55) | 61.00% | | Soybean oil | Port inventory: 118.10 ( + 4.10) | - 1.00% | | Rapeseeds | Coastal oil mill inventory: 12.90 ( - 2.40) | 28.03% | | Rapeseed meal | Coastal area inventory: 2.50 ( + 0.40) | - | | Rapeseed oil | East China commercial inventory: 55.40 ( + 1.80) | - 0.80% | | Palm oil | Inventory: 61 ( + 3) | - | | Peanuts | Inventory: 76130 ( - 7070) | 6.32% | | Peanut oil | Inventory: 38530 ( - 320) | 1.58% | [18][19] 3.2 Feed 3.2.1 Daily Data - Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil in October and November are provided, including CNF prices and landed duty - paid costs [19] 3.2.2 Weekly Data | Indicator | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Deep - processing enterprise corn consumption (10,000 tons) | 100.63 | + 0.42 | - 16.14 | | Deep - processing enterprise corn inventory (10,000 tons) | 294.20 | - 20.50 | + 7.40 | | Starch enterprise operating rate (%) | 47.70 | - 3.31 | - 6.64 | | Starch enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | 126.50 | - 5.30 | + 126.50 | [20] 3.3 Breeding 3.3.1 Live Pigs - Daily data shows the price changes of live pigs, piglets, pork wholesale prices, and related ratios in different regions on September 3, 2025 [21] - Weekly data includes information on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other aspects [25] 3.3.2 Eggs - Daily data shows the price changes of eggs and淘汰 chickens in different regions on September 3, 2025 [22] - Weekly data focuses on supply - side indicators (such as egg - laying rate, hen age at culling, and culling volume), demand - side indicators (such as sales volume and inventory), and profit - related data [23][24] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Charts are provided for the breeding end (live pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and the feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal), showing various data such as production, inventory, price spreads, and historical volatility [26][35][54] Group 5: Options and Warehouse Receipts 5.1 Options - Charts show the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [87][88][89] 5.2 Warehouse Receipts - Charts display the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [90][91][93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is currently facing a mix of bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, the external sugar price may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has more bearish factors on the supply side, with the futures price of Zhengzhou sugar showing a short - term weak trend. However, due to the relatively low inventory pressure of sugar - making enterprises and the improvement in trading volume during the peak - season stocking, the downside space for sugar prices is also limited [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly recently. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand in the finished paper market has yet to improve. Although the recent increase in the overseas broad - leaf pulp offer price and the fact that the coniferous pulp price is below the cost of some enterprises provide certain support, the upward driving force for pulp prices is still weak, and it is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: The international cotton market is in a situation of long - short game. The short - term price of US cotton futures may continue to oscillate at a low level. The domestic cotton market is affected by the news of state reserve sales, and the short - term price may continue to oscillate and consolidate [5][6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: The opening price of early - maturing apples has increased year - on - year, and the poor performance of the high - quality fruit rate has provided support for the futures price. As long as the concerns about the high - quality fruit rate are not falsified, the futures price may continue to be supported [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: The inventory of jujubes in the spot market has been continuously reduced, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has improved. The price of high - quality jujubes in the sales area is strong. The futures price of jujubes has shown a high - level correction, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production area during the key growth stage of sugar - coloring of new - season jujubes [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2510, the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take a short - long approach, with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce long positions, with a support range of 11000 - 11200 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce short positions, with a support range of 5530 - 5550 and a pressure range of 5630 - 5650. For Pulp 2511, the recommended strategy is to be short - biased within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 5000 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Cotton 2601, the recommended strategy is to return to a wait - and - see state, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14300 - 14400 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was about 464,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0%. As of August 27, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 339,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,800 tons. According to different statistics, as of August 28, the national cold - storage inventory was 353,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 299,600 tons. Different institutions have different forecasts for the national apple production this year, with one showing a slight decrease and the other showing a slight increase [17]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The mainstream transaction price of apples in the Shandong production area has increased, mainly due to the increased enthusiasm of merchants to purchase cold - storage goods. The price of high - quality goods has risen, while the price of low - quality goods has remained basically stable. The transaction price in the northwest production area of early - maturing Fuji high - quality goods is stable and high. The arrival and shipment in the sales area are stable, and the price is stable [18][19]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The temperature in the main jujube - producing areas in Xinjiang has slightly decreased, and some areas have experienced light rain. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on quality during the sugar - coloring period. The average daily arrival of jujubes in the sales area has decreased. The price of high - quality jujubes is strong, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable and firm. The inventory in the sample points has decreased [20]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of August 31, 2025, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales were 2.0823 million tons, with a sales rate of 86.09%. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 130,900 tons, and the industrial inventory was 336,400 tons. As of the end of August, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.7563 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.04%. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 260,200 tons, and the industrial inventory was 708,700 tons. The spot market quotation of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises has been slightly reduced [23]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The decline in the domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has significantly suppressed the trading volume of imported bleached softwood pulp in the past week. The inventory of bleached softwood pulp (especially Russian softwood pulp) is high, which has put obvious pressure on the futures price. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK has remained at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice by suppliers, with a cumulative increase of 40 US dollars per ton, and the current price is 500 - 520 US dollars per ton [4][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market In July 2025, the yarn production of large - scale enterprises was 1.992 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. From January to July, the yarn production was 13.426 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, the cloth production was 2.67 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%. From January to July, the cumulative cloth production was 1.825 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In the 2024/25 season, India's total yarn exports in June were 83,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.76% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, and Cotton 2601 have all declined, while the closing price of Pulp 2511 has increased slightly [27][28]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples has increased month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of jujubes has decreased month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of sugar has remained unchanged month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the spot price of pulp has remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of cotton has increased month - on - month and year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The spreads of Apple 10 - 1, Jujube 9 - 1, Sugar 9 - 1, and Cotton 1 - 5 are all in a state of oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [48]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipts of apples are 0, with no change month - on - month and year - on - year; the warehouse receipts of jujubes are 10,037, a month - on - month decrease of 52 and a year - on - year increase of 2,472; the warehouse receipts of sugar are 12,782, a month - on - month decrease of 420 and a year - on - year decrease of 1,538; the warehouse receipts of pulp are 247,227, a month - on - month decrease of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 226,119; the warehouse receipts of cotton are 5,996, a month - on - month decrease of 135 and a year - on - year decrease of 2,786 [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Carbonate Lithium**: The spot price is falling, and the futures continue the downward trend. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is coming, and the inventory cycle of downstream material factories has slightly extended. The supply reduction rate has slowed down, and the inventory transfer from lithium salt enterprises to downstream continues. The probability of downstream large - scale replenishment may decrease. The downstream is advised to seize the opportunity for futures buying hedging [3][4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is steadily increasing, and the operating rate is rising. The demand from different sectors has different situations, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited with high - level inventory. In September, attention should be paid to the possible production reduction in the silicon material industry chain. The futures price is in a confrontation between weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to continue range - bound [5]. - **Polysilicon**: The news of industry capacity acquisition has heated up the speculative sentiment. The production has no significant increase, and there is a strong expectation of self - disciplined production reduction in September. The inventory has been continuously decreasing. The spot price has risen, and the downstream acceptance needs to be concerned. The short - term sentiment is bullish, but chasing the rise blindly should be avoided [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Spot Price a. Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 11 | News - driven market | 70,000 - 72,000 | 80,000 - 82,000 | Stabilize and rebound | Downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [13] | | Industrial Silicon 11 | Confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectation | 8,200 - 8,300 | 8,900 - 9,000 | Range - bound | Adopt range - trading thinking, and it is more recommended to sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low prices [13] | | Polysilicon 11 | News - dominated market, short - term speculative sentiment has significantly heated up | 47,000 - 48,000 | 54,000 - 55,000 | Rebound and rise | Consider a bullish approach in the short term [13] | b. Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 71,880 | - 1.02% | 442,800 | 346,048 | - 2,061 | 34,118 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,490 | 0.24% | 275,841 | 279,742 | - 1,738 | 50,348 | | Polysilicon | 52,160 | 0.34% | 362,759 | 149,210 | 33,553,355 | 6,870.006870.00 | [14] Second Part: Fundamental Situation a. Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Last week, the production was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons from the previous week, and the inventory decline rate was slower than expected [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: No specific text description provided, but relevant data charts such as the production capacity and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate are presented [25]. b. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Supply is increasing, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory is at a high level and continues to be sorted out [5]. - **Downstream Situation**: The demand from different sectors has different trends, such as the increase in polysilicon production, the stalemate in the organic silicon market, the possible reduction in aluminum alloy production, and the improvement in export demand [5]. c. Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: In the week of August 28, 2025, the weekly production was 29,900 tons, with no significant increase, and the operating rate was 48%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The inventory has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks, and last week it was 245,000 tons [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: No specific text description provided, but relevant data charts such as the monthly production of silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules are presented [44].