Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 14, 2025, the domestic futures market shows a mixed performance. Some commodities like apples and soybeans have risen, while others such as methanol and glass have declined. Different commodities face various supply - demand situations, influenced by factors such as production, consumption, policies, and geopolitical events. Most commodities are expected to show weak and volatile trends due to factors like supply - demand imbalances, uncertain policies, and market sentiment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and policy - related procurement issues, with a decrease in the overall smelter operating rate. Demand is weak, with a decline in downstream copper product operating rates and an increase in inventory. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut in the US, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, but the tight copper ore supply provides some support [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has increased slightly. Supply shows growth, with an increase in domestic production and a decrease in imports from Chile. Demand is strong, driven by the energy - storage battery market. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the market is expected to remain strong after a correction [10]. - **Aluminum**: No relevant information provided. - **Nickel**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. - **Tin**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price. Demand has entered the off - season, and the overall inventory is increasing. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the situation of Russian oil exports needs to be monitored. The market is expected to be in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [11][13]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - **Bitumen**: Supply has decreased, with a decline in the operating rate and production volume. Demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and it is expected to weaken further. The supply - surplus situation of crude oil has led to a decline in prices, and the bitumen futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [14]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The downstream operating rate is low, and the production proportion of standard products has decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is also low. Supply has increased with new capacity. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The demand in the peak season is not as expected, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [17]. - **PVC**: The supply operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has also declined slightly. The export situation is affected by policies, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in the adjustment stage, and the price is expected to be in a state of shock adjustment [19]. Agricultural Products - **Apples**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - **Soybeans**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The price has increased slightly. Supply has increased with the recovery of Mongolian coal imports and domestic production. The inventory situation varies among different sectors. The demand is affected by the weakening profitability of steel mills, and the market is expected to weaken [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price has remained stable with a slight decline. Supply has increased with new production capacity. The demand is affected by environmental inspections and the off - season of agricultural demand. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be in a short - term strong adjustment [22]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all declined [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year contract has declined slightly, the 5 - year and 10 - year contracts have remained flat, and the 30 - year contract has increased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and the crude oil supply surplus situation is becoming more obvious, leading to a decline in crude oil prices and a weakening of the asphalt basis. The spot price is weak, and the market is cautious [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%). Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. With the continuous decline in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken, while the increase in southern projects is limited [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 31.02% week - on - week to 21,300 tons, at a moderately low level [1]. - Price: The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil supply surplus pattern has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. The forward low - price resources of refineries are being released intensively, the asphalt basis in Shandong has weakened recently, and the spot price is weak, causing the asphalt futures price to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.10% to 3,037 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,001 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,021 to 192,751 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 37 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared with the week of November 7, but it remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented. The report mainly provides urea - related data including prices, basis, spreads, and inventory. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Prices - In the domestic market, the price in Hebei decreased from 1640 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton; prices in Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Heilongjiang, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 1610, 1600, 1480, 1590, 1590, 1670, and 1650 yuan/ton respectively. Among factories, Hebei Dongguang and Shandong Hualu's prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 1620 yuan/ton, while Jiangsu Linggu and Anhui Haoyuan remained at 1670 and 1600 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Internationally, the FOB prices in the Middle East, US Gulf, Egypt, and the Baltic remained at 378, 389.5, 486, and 380 dollars/ton respectively, and the CFR price in Brazil remained at 425 dollars/ton [2]. Basis - Shandong 05 basis decreased from - 107 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton, a drop of 21 yuan/ton; Shandong 01 basis decreased from - 128 yuan/ton to - 148 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton; Hebei 05 basis decreased from - 87 yuan/ton to - 98 yuan/ton, a drop of 11 yuan/ton; Hebei 01 basis decreased from - 108 yuan/ton to - 118 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Spread - The 1 - 5 spread decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 73 yuan/ton, a drop of 4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased from - 21 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts increased from 6958 to 7183, an increase of 225 [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - The current total port inventory is 15,129.71, an increase of 230.88 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily average port clearance volume is 326.95, an increase of 6.02 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills is 9,076.01, an increase of 66.07 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily consumption of imported iron ore in steel mills is 292.63, an increase of 3.93 from the previous week [1]. - The current arrival volume is 2,741.2, a decrease of 477.20 from the previous week [1]. - The current production of domestic iron ore concentrate is 40.12, an increase of 0.24 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily average hot metal production is 236.88, an increase of 2.66 from the previous week [1]. - The current steel mill operating rate is 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - The current capacity utilization rate is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - The current steel mill profitability rate is 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week [1]. Port Inventory Variety Structure - The current inventory of coarse powder is 11,600.75, an increase of 141.66 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of lump ore is 1,996.17, an increase of 56.56 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of pellets is 304.79, a decrease of 11 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of iron concentrate is 1,228, an increase of 43.66 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of traded ore is 9,840.42, an increase of 248.13 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of Brazilian ore is 5,962.68, an increase of 88.37 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of Australian ore is 6,326.52, an increase of 155.83 from the previous week [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In October 2025, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, various regions and departments implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, and the national economy maintained a generally stable and progressive development trend, with stable production and supply, overall stable employment, improved prices, and the cultivation and growth of new driving forces [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 4.5%, 4.9%, and 5.4% respectively. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries increased by 8.0% and 7.2% respectively, faster than the overall industrial enterprises above designated size. The output of 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots increased by 30.8%, 19.3%, and 17.9% respectively. From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year [2]. - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, and the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 52.8%. From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [2]. Services - In October, the national service industry production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and the financial industry increased by 13.0%, 8.2%, and 5.6% respectively, faster than the service industry production index. From January to October, the national service industry production index increased by 5.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year [3]. - In October, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, and the service industry business activity expectation index was 56.1%. The business activity indexes of industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, accommodation, and culture, sports, and entertainment were in the high - level prosperity range of 60.0% and above [3]. Consumption - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% and a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. Retail sales in urban and rural areas increased by 2.7% and 4.1% respectively. Retail sales of goods and catering revenue increased by 2.8% and 3.8% respectively. Retail sales of basic necessities and some upgraded consumer goods grew rapidly. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 41216.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The national online retail sales were 12791.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The retail sales of physical goods online were 10398.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, accounting for 25.2% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. From January to October, the retail sales of services increased by 5.3% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points faster than in the first three quarters [4]. Investment - From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.7%. Infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 14.7%. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% and 9.6% respectively. Investment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 2.9%, 4.8%, and decreased by 5.3% respectively. Private investment decreased by 4.5%. Excluding real estate development investment, private investment increased by 0.2%. Investment in information services, aerospace equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing in high - tech industries increased by 32.7%, 19.7%, and 4.1% respectively. In October, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.62% month - on - month [5]. Import and Export - In October, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 3702.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2171.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1531.1 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4%. From January to October, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 37309 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 22114.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2%, and imports were 15194.4 billion yuan, remaining flat year - on - year. General trade imports and exports increased by 2.3%, accounting for 63.4% of the total import and export volume. Imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road increased by 5.9%. Private enterprise imports and exports increased by 7.2%, accounting for 57.0% of the total import and export volume, 1.9 percentage points higher than the previous year. Exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 8.7%, accounting for 60.7% of the total export volume [6]. Prices - In October, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and tobacco prices decreased by 1.6%, while clothing, housing, daily necessities and services, education, culture and entertainment, medical care, and other supplies and services prices increased. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. From January to October, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. The national producer price index for industrial products (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points, and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. From January to October, the national PPI and the purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.7% and 3.2% respectively [7]. Employment - From January to October, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate nationwide was 5.2%. In October, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate of local household registration labor force was 5.3%, and that of migrant labor force was 4.7%, among which the surveyed unemployment rate of migrant agricultural household registration labor force was 4.5%. The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large - scale cities was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The average weekly working hours of enterprise employees nationwide were 48.4 hours [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Soda Ash**: The current week's开工率 was 84.8%, a decrease of 0.87 from the previous week; the产量 was 73.92 (unit not specified), a decrease of 0.76; the重质产量 was 41.09, a decrease of 0.39; the轻质产量 was 32.83, a decrease of 0.37 [1]. - **Glass**: The current week's开工率 was 75.000%, a decrease of 0.916 from the previous week; the产线条数 remained at 222; the产量 was 111.3945 (unit not specified), a decrease of 1.214 [1]. Inventory - **Soda Ash**: The厂内库存 was 170.73 (unit not specified), a decrease of 0.69; the重质库存 was 90.71, an increase of 0.75; the轻质库存 was 80.02, a decrease of 1.44; the库存可用天数 was 14.16, a decrease of 0.05 [1]. - **Glass**: The库存 was 6324.7 (unit not specified), an increase of 11.1; the库存可用天数 was 27.5, an increase of 0.4 [1]. Profit - **Soda Ash**: The氨碱法毛利 was -23.5, an increase of 20; the联产法毛利 was -182, a decrease of 8; the天然气利润 was -187.7, a decrease of 15; the石油焦利润 was 32.52, an increase of 34.29; the煤制气利润 was 51.26, a decrease of 26.84 [1]. - **Glass**: No profit data was provided in the text, but the profit data of different production processes such as天然气浮法工艺,石油焦浮法工艺, and煤炭浮法工艺 were presented in the chart [1]. Basis & Spread - **Soda Ash**: The基差 was -45, an increase of 5; the 1 - 5价差 was 66, a decrease of 20; the纯碱 - glass 01价差 was 183, an increase of 77; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 was 132, an increase of 66 [1]. - **Glass**: The基差 was 48, an increase of 23; the 1 - 5价差 was 117, a decrease of 9 [1].

早盘速递 2025/11/14 热点资讯 1. 中国人民银行：截至2025年10月末，10月末本外币存款余额达332.92万亿元，同比增长8.3%，本外币贷款余额为274.54万 亿元，同比增长6.3%，10月末社融存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%，广义货币（M2）余额335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%， 狭义货币（M1）余额112万亿元，同比增长6.2%。 5. 据SMM数据，本周SMM氧化铝总库存录得479.3万吨，环比累库7.9万吨。虽然氧化铝运行产能环比下滑90万吨，但总体运行 产能仍超过电解铝对其需求，基本面维持过剩格局，氧化铝延续累库趋势。 板块表现 重点关注 低硫燃料油、PTA、焦煤、沪铜、沪金 夜盘表现 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 非金属建材 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.93% at $4174.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.30% at $52.23 per ounce. The end of the US government shutdown led the market to focus on economic data, and the Fed's policy divergence increased market uncertainty. Weak economic data in the eurozone and an unclear global economic outlook supported the safe - haven demand for gold [5]. - US crude oil's main contract rose 0.19% to $58.6 per barrel, and Brent crude's main contract rose 0.29% to $62.89 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reversed its previous forecast and expected global oil and gas demand to continue growing until 2050, with a more favorable long - term fundamental outlook [5]. - London's base metals all declined. LME zinc fell 1.12% to $3040.50 per ton, LME lead fell 0.98% to $2075.00 per ton, LME tin fell 0.89% to $37065.00 per ton, LME copper fell 0.78% to $10859.00 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.65% to $14955.00 per ton, and LME aluminum fell 0.60% to $2877.00 per ton [5]. - As of the close at 23:00 on October 13, most domestic futures contracts rose. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose nearly 2%, and PTA, ethylene glycol (EG), PX, styrene (EB), caustic soda, bottle chips, plastics, and soybeans rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, asphalt, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell nearly 1% [7]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - As of the end of October 2025, China's total domestic and foreign currency deposits reached 332.92 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; domestic and foreign currency loans were 274.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; the stock of social financing at the end of October was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the broad - money (M2) balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; and the narrow - money (M1) balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - US President Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill will provide continuous funding for the federal government, allowing most government agencies to obtain operating funds until January 30, 2026 [9]. - Morgan Stanley's Bruna Skarica said the UK's latest GDP data was weaker than expected, indicating that the economy needed support to resume growth. The third - quarter GDP growth was 0.1%, lower than the 0.2% consensus growth predicted by economists in a Wall Street Journal survey. Skarica said the Bank of England was likely to cut interest rates in December to support the struggling economy [9]. - From November 10 to 13, 2025, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing visited Paris, France, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and held bilateral talks with relevant regulatory authorities, exchanging views on securities market regulation and further deepening and expanding bilateral pragmatic cooperation in the capital market [10]. - On November 13, at the 16th Caixin Summit, Wang Shengbang, Director of the Regulations Department of the Financial Regulatory Administration, revealed that the administration would soon issue a revised "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to support the mergers, reorganizations, and transformations of various enterprises, including high - tech startups [12]. - At a regular press conference on November 13, the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions about Sino - US soybean trade, stating that relevant information on the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including agricultural product trade, had been released [12]. - Premier Li Qiang will attend relevant meetings in Russia, visit Zambia, and attend the G20 Summit in South Africa from November 17 to 23 [12]. - As of November 12, 75% of the winter wheat sowing in China had been completed, with different progress in different regions [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - According to Longzhong Information, China's ethylene glycol sample demand this week was 552,200 tons, a 0.31% week - on - week decrease. The supply of the domestic polyester industry decreased more than it increased, and the weekly output and capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry declined slightly [14]. - China's methanol production this week was 1,976,025 tons, a decrease of 12,880 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 111,000 heavy boxes and a year - on - year increase of 33.61%. The national float glass production was 1.1139 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 0.76%. The inventory of Chinese styrene factories increased by 5.22% week - on - week [14]. - The IEA monthly report predicted that OPEC + supply would increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [16]. - As of the week ending November 12, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventory, including fuel oil and low - sulfur waxy residue, increased by 1.47 million barrels to a nine - week high of 25.952 million barrels [16]. Metal Futures - On November 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 198,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the 6th and 300 tons from the 10th. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [18]. - This week, the total SMM alumina inventory was 4.793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79,000 tons. The alumina market remained in an oversupply situation, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18]. - This week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease. Some sectors were transitioning from the peak to the off - season, and some aluminum - rod enterprises reduced production [18]. - Supported by the easing of trade tensions, aluminum prices climbed above $2900 per metric ton. Aluminum has risen more than 13% this year and is the third - best - performing variety on the London Metal Exchange after copper and tin [19]. Black - Series Futures - According to Buguwang data, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan this week was 1.1963 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from last week. The inventory in warehouses and ports showed different trends [22]. - As of the week ending November 13, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the factory and social inventories decreased for five consecutive weeks [22]. - On November 13, in the Linfen Puxian coking coal auction, some lots had lower prices and some lots were unsold compared to the previous auction on November 3 [23]. - In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous ten - day period, with different comparison results in different time frames. The average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel also showed different trends [23]. - This week, the average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [24]. Agricultural Product Futures - Indian palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports in October decreased compared to September. The 2024/25 annual palm oil imports were lower than the previous year, and the share of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports fell below 50% for the first time. The 2024/25 annual vegetable oil imports were expected to be higher than the previous year [27]. - On November 12, the duty - paid cost of imported cotton under different tariffs was different from the domestic cotton price. After China cancelled the 15% counter - tariff on US cotton, the duty - paid cost of imported US cotton under a 10% tariff was higher than the domestic standard - grade cotton price [28]. - Brazil's CONAB predicted that the 2025/26 soybean production would be a record - high 177.6 million tons, with a slight decrease in the planting area compared to the October prediction. The soybean export volume was expected to increase by 5.11% year - on - year. The 2025/26 corn production was expected to be 138.84 million tons, higher than the October prediction [28]. - According to the US Department of Agriculture, the net sales and shipments of US soybeans and corn in the 2025/2026 season showed different trends compared to the previous week [29]. 3. Financial Market Finance - China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing visited France and Brazil, exchanging views on securities market regulation and capital - market cooperation, and also listened to the opinions of international institutional investors and Chinese - funded enterprises on opening up the Chinese capital market [32]. - The A - share market opened lower and closed higher. The lithium - battery industry chain soared, and some sectors performed well while others were weak. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to 4029.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.55%. The A - share trading volume for the day was 2.07 trillion yuan [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.56% to 27073.03 points, with some sectors performing well and others falling. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$3.521 billion, while Alibaba had a net buy - in of HK$1.375 billion [32]. - An investment guideline from a pension insurance company required investment managers to adjust their portfolios to meet style requirements [32]. - In September, the number of privately - offered asset - management products registered in China increased by 230.23% year - on - year, and the establishment scale increased by 69.2% year - on - year [33]. - Tencent Holdings' Q3 revenue was 192.87 billion yuan, a 15% year - on - year increase, and its operating profit was 72.57 billion yuan, an 18% year - on - year increase. Tencent also made some statements about its future plans [35]. - SMIC's Q3 revenue was 17.162 billion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year increase, and its net profit was 1.517 billion yuan, a 43.1% year - on - year increase. It also gave forecasts for the fourth quarter [35]. - JD Group's Q3 total revenue was 299.059 billion yuan, a 14.9% year - on - year increase, and its adjusted net profit was 5.8 billion yuan, a 56% year - on - year decrease. Its user scale and shopping frequency continued to grow [35]. - Bilibili's Q3 net operating revenue was 7.69 billion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase, and its adjusted net profit was 786 million yuan, a 233% year - on - year increase. Its core user indicators reached record highs in Q3 [35]. Industry - At the 2025 6G Development Conference, Vice - Minister Zhang Yunming of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said China had completed the first - stage 6G technology tests and formed over 300 key technology reserves. 6G is now in the international standard research stage and is expected to be commercially deployed around 2030 [36]. - At the 2025 World Power Battery Conference, Vice - Minister Xin Guobin of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said relevant development plans for intelligent, connected, new - energy vehicles and the new - battery industry would be formulated, and policies to promote the application of power batteries and regulate the industry would be studied [36]. - As the full exemption of new - energy vehicle purchase tax is about to end, 17 major automobile brands have launched purchase - tax subsidy plans [37]. - Many large insurance companies are launching "good start" products, with a trend towards floating - design dividend - insurance products [37]. - From January to October this year, China completed 1.00947 trillion yuan in water - conservancy construction investment, implemented 46,000 water - conservancy projects, and started 28,000 new projects [38]. Overseas - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the October CPI report as scheduled. The White House said the October CPI and employment data might never be released, and the September employment report might be released next week with limited data [39]. - An IMF spokesperson said the US economy showed signs of weakness, and the fourth - quarter GDP growth was expected to be lower than the previous forecast [39]. - Some Fed officials expressed different views on interest - rate policies [39]. - European financial stability officials were discussing a plan to establish an alternative to the Fed's liquidity - support mechanism by integrating non - US central banks' US - dollar reserves [39]. - The UK's third - quarter GDP growth was only 0.1%, and the September GDP shrank by 0.1% [41]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed lower across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.65% to 47457.22 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.66% to 6737.49 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.29% to 22870.36 points. Disney and other stocks led the decline [42]. - European stocks also closed lower across the board. The German DAX Index fell 1.36% to 24048.84 points, the French CAC40 Index fell 0.11% to 8232.49 points, and the UK FTSE 100 Index fell 1.05% to 9807.68 points [42]. - Disney's adjusted EPS in the fourth fiscal quarter was $1.11, exceeding market expectations, and its revenue was $22.5 billion, slightly lower than market expectations. Disney also announced a 50% dividend increase and a doubling of the 2026 stock - buyback plan [42]. Commodities - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with gold and silver futures falling. Economic data and Fed policy affected the market [43]. - Crude - oil futures rose, supported by the IEA's revised forecast of long - term oil and gas demand [45]. - London's base metals all declined [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market weakened, with most interest - rate bond yields rising slightly and Treasury - bond futures falling. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market liquidity improved [46]. - US Treasury yields rose across the board [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0959 on Thursday, a 213 - basis - point increase from the previous trading day, reaching a new high since mid - October 2024. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was adjusted down by 32 basis points [47]. - The US dollar index fell 0.30% to 99.18, and most non - US currencies rose. The Japanese yen against the US dollar fell to a nine - month low, and the euro against the yen approached a record high. The South Korean won against the US dollar fell, and the central bank said it would intervene if necessary [48][49]. 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include China's October industrial added value, retail sales, and other indicators, as well as data from other countries such as France, Spain, and the US [51]. - Upcoming events include central - bank operations, press conferences, and speeches by central - bank officials [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end of the US federal government shutdown boosts optimistic sentiment and the copper market. With short - term macro potential negatives temporarily fading, copper prices are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the release of US economic data and the situation of the December interest - rate cut game [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a strong intraday oscillation. The US government ended the shutdown, and the long - term order negotiation in the supply side has uncertainties. In November, 5 smelters are expected to have maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. The demand peak season is weaker than previous years, and the downstream demand is still weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing since the end of October [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, with strong intraday oscillation. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 40 yuan/ton, and in South China is 5 yuan/ton. On November 12, 2025, the LME official price was 10,853 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 20 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 10, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 44,000 tons, an increase of 64 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 378,300 short tons, an increase of 4,327 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Overview - Report Title: "消息证伪，回归基本面" - Release Date: November 13, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department - Author's Qualification Certificate Number: F0235424/Z0000771 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market was generally warm today. After the export news was falsified, the market returned to the fundamental logic. The upstream factory resumption and new production increased the daily output, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price. The downstream inventory was being depleted, and the market was affected by factors such as environmental inspections and raw material price fluctuations [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The overall commodity futures market was warm. Urea opened flat and moved lower, with a slight increase during the day. The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. - The upstream factory resumption and new production pushed the daily output to 200,000 tons, nearly 9% higher than the same period last year, and high daily output was expected to continue this month. The coal price rebounded rapidly in the heating season, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price due to the cold winter expectation [1]. - The autumn fertilizer in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions was basically finished, and the compound fertilizer factory's start - up load decreased. After the end of environmental inspections, the start - up rate would rise again. The autumn fertilizer inventory was being depleted, and the winter storage policy was cautious due to raw material price fluctuations. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchases increased, and the inventory was being depleted [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,652 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, and rose in the afternoon, closing at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250,538 lots, a decrease of 5,582 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 2,296 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,046 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of +397 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of +599 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +761 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +926 lots [2]. Spot - The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 13, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 13, 2025, the national urea daily output was 207,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 85.51% [11]. Enterprise Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [12]. Downstream Data - From November 7 to November 13, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week [13].