Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end of the US federal government shutdown boosts optimistic sentiment and the copper market. With short - term macro potential negatives temporarily fading, copper prices are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the release of US economic data and the situation of the December interest - rate cut game [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a strong intraday oscillation. The US government ended the shutdown, and the long - term order negotiation in the supply side has uncertainties. In November, 5 smelters are expected to have maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. The demand peak season is weaker than previous years, and the downstream demand is still weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing since the end of October [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, with strong intraday oscillation. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 40 yuan/ton, and in South China is 5 yuan/ton. On November 12, 2025, the LME official price was 10,853 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 20 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 10, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 44,000 tons, an increase of 64 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 378,300 short tons, an increase of 4,327 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Overview - Report Title: "消息证伪，回归基本面" - Release Date: November 13, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department - Author's Qualification Certificate Number: F0235424/Z0000771 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market was generally warm today. After the export news was falsified, the market returned to the fundamental logic. The upstream factory resumption and new production increased the daily output, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price. The downstream inventory was being depleted, and the market was affected by factors such as environmental inspections and raw material price fluctuations [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The overall commodity futures market was warm. Urea opened flat and moved lower, with a slight increase during the day. The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. - The upstream factory resumption and new production pushed the daily output to 200,000 tons, nearly 9% higher than the same period last year, and high daily output was expected to continue this month. The coal price rebounded rapidly in the heating season, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price due to the cold winter expectation [1]. - The autumn fertilizer in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions was basically finished, and the compound fertilizer factory's start - up load decreased. After the end of environmental inspections, the start - up rate would rise again. The autumn fertilizer inventory was being depleted, and the winter storage policy was cautious due to raw material price fluctuations. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchases increased, and the inventory was being depleted [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,652 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, and rose in the afternoon, closing at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250,538 lots, a decrease of 5,582 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 2,296 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,046 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of +397 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of +599 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +761 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +926 lots [2]. Spot - The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 13, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 13, 2025, the national urea daily output was 207,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 85.51% [11]. Enterprise Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [12]. Downstream Data - From November 7 to November 13, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be on November 30th. This will intensify the Q4 supply pressure but unexpectedly relieve the Q1 2026 supply pressure [1] - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the flagship Arab Light crude oil price cut by $1.20 per barrel [1] - The peak demand season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows that the gasoline inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, but the U.S. crude oil inventory build - up exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory increased slightly [1][3] - The U.S. production of crude oil continued to reach a new historical high. The U.S. sanctioned two major Russian oil companies, which is expected to limit Russian crude oil exports. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil [1] - The military confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela has escalated, and the Ford Strike Group has reached the Caribbean Sea [1] - The consumption peak season has ended, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in October decreased month - on - month and contracted for the eighth consecutive month. The market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and Middle - East exports are rising, resulting in a supply - surplus pattern [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 fell 3.66% to 449.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 464.1 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4417 to 18,452 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report predicts that the global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of U.S. crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3] - The OPEC monthly report adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and from a shortage of 50,000 barrels per day in 2026 to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively [3] - The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while it previously expected global oil demand to peak in 2030 [3] - EIA data on November 5th showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory for the week ending October 31st increased by 5.202 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 603,000 barrels and was 5.34% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory decreased by 4.729 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.14 million barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 64,300 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 196,900 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 30,000 barrels [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its September production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4] - The U.S. crude oil production in the week ending October 31st increased by 700 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day, reaching a new historical high [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.677 million barrels per day, a 2.08% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.843 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year. The overall single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased by 4.35% month - on - month [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is expected to experience weak and volatile conditions in the near term due to factors such as increased supply, decreased export expectations, high inventory, and a sluggish real - estate market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC production rate increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC production rate started to decline slightly and is still at a low level [1][4] - India postponed the BIS policy for six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India raised the anti - dumping tax on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton in August, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter. Traders are starting to take a wait - and - see approach, and last week's export orders decreased compared to the previous week [1] - From January to September 2025, the real - estate market was still in the adjustment phase. Investment, new construction, and completion areas showed significant year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction further decreased. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline and was at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC production rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities, such as Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton - per - year plant, are in operation. There are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, and the elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity issues will affect future market trends [1] - The maintenance of production enterprises like Inner Mongolia Sanlian is about to end, the cost support is weakening, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the PVC futures price has fallen below the previous low, the market is sluggish, and social inventory has increased slightly [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,560 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,590 yuan per ton, and it closed at 4,586 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.02% increase and a decrease in positions by 5,487 to 1,392,393 hands [2] - On November 13, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,515 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,586 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 71 yuan per ton, weakening by 5 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the output of plants such as Ningbo Zhenyang and Inner Mongolia Yili increased. The PVC production rate increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75% and remained at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton - per - year plant, have been put into production [4] - On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to September 2025, national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. Various real - estate indicators such as sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 9, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 32.15% compared to the previous week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 6, PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons, 26.42% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory increased slightly and is still at a high level [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is experiencing a downward trend with weak oscillations. The supply - demand relationship, crude oil price changes, and capital constraints are influencing the market. With the expected increase in production from some refineries and the weakening of subsequent demand, along with the decline in crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is showing a weak performance [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 (Market Analysis) - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt planned production is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries plan to resume production, and asphalt output will increase [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising 1 percentage point to 34% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather. The national shipping volume decreased 6.79% to 308,800 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. The subsequent demand will gradually weaken [1]. - Crude oil factor: OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the oversupply pattern of crude oil has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. - Market situation: The concentrated release of long - term low - price resources from refineries has weakened the asphalt basis in Shandong recently, and the spot price has followed the decline, resulting in a weak oscillation of asphalt futures prices [1]. 2.期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market) - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 1.05% to 3029 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2999 yuan/ton, the highest was 3058 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4500 to 193,772 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 29 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - Supply side: Some refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Zhongyou Qinhuangdao stopped asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative [4]. - Demand - related investment: From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025 but still in negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August 2025 [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of November 7, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising 1 percentage point to 34% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries dropped 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile movements in the near term. The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and the inventory reduction of petrochemicals is normal. The supply - side has new production capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices, and the cost - side crude oil price has declined [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as the old line of CNOOC Daxie were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 24%. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil supply surplus has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in oil prices. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year put into operation at PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6480 yuan/ton, up 0.39%, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 8169 lots to 628,423 lots [2]. - **Spot**: PP spot prices in most regions remained stable, with drawstring prices ranging from 6260 to 6570 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as the old line of CNOOC Daxie were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, a neutral - low level [7]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 7th, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [7]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10 per ton to $720 per ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the near future [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. In terms of cost, OPEC adjusted the global oil supply in the third quarter of 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of oversupply in the crude oil market has become more widely recognized, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of LDPE started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a production capacity of 800,000 tons per year was recently put into production. The plastics operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable. After the National Day, the stocking demand decreased periodically, the downstream operating rate began to decline, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises was insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is still no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastics industry. Of course, anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,756 yuan per ton, the highest price was 6,820 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 6,818 yuan per ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.50%. The position volume decreased by 5,317 lots to 581,602 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan per ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,270 yuan per ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,430 yuan per ton, and HDPE at 6,900 - 8,090 yuan per ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. In terms of demand, as of the week of November 7th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons compared to the previous day, which is 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton compared to the previous period, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton compared to the previous period [4]

Group 1: Mainstream Regional Market Prices - The current price in Hebei is 1640 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous value of 1630 yuan/ton [2] - The price in Henan remains unchanged at 1610 yuan/ton [2] - The price in Shandong remains unchanged at 1600 yuan/ton [2] - The price in Shanxi remains unchanged at 1480 yuan/ton [2] - The price in Jiangsu is 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous value of 1600 yuan/ton [2] - The price in Anhui remains unchanged at 1590 yuan/ton [2] - The price in Heilongjiang remains unchanged at 1670 yuan/ton [2] - The price in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at 1650 yuan/ton [2] Group 2: Factory Prices - The price of Hebei Dongguang is 1630 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous value of 1610 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Shandong Hualu remains unchanged at 1630 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Jiangsu Linggu remains unchanged at 1670 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Anhui Haoyuan remains unchanged at 1600 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Basis - Shandong 05 basis is -107 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from -112 yuan/ton [2] - Shandong 01 basis is -128 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from -135 yuan/ton [2] - Hebei 05 basis is -87 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from -102 yuan/ton [2] - Hebei 01 basis is -108 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from -125 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Monthly Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread is 77 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from 72 yuan/ton [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -21 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from -23 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged at 6958 [2] Group 6: Previous Day's International Quotes - Middle East FOB remains unchanged at 378 dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf FOB remains unchanged at 389.5 dollars/ton [2] - Egypt FOB remains unchanged at 486 dollars/ton [2] - Baltic FOB remains unchanged at 380 dollars/ton [2] - Brazil CFR remains unchanged at 425 dollars/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - **Crude Oil**: The main contract of US crude oil closed down 4.19% at $58.48 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 3.74% to $62.72 per barrel [5]. - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce [6]. - **Base Metals in London**: Most London base metals rose. LME tin rose 2.15% to $37405.00 per ton, LME lead rose 1.38% to $2092.00 per ton, LME copper rose 0.65% to $10897.00 per ton, LME aluminum rose 0.40% to $2886.00 per ton, LME zinc rose 0.18% to $3072.00 per ton, and LME nickel fell 0.29% to $15010.00 per ton [6]. - **Domestic Futures**: As of the close at 23:00 on November 12, domestic futures main contracts mostly fell. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell more than 3%, fuel oil fell more than 2%, caustic soda and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell more than 1%. In terms of gains, pure benzene rose more than 1%, and styrene (EB) rose nearly 1% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - **Russia-Ukraine Negotiations**: Russia is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, according to a Russian diplomat [9]. - **Photovoltaic Rumor**: Jingao Technology clarified that the rumor about the "collapse of the storage platform" is false, and the company is not involved in the platform [9]. - **Fed's Interest Rate**: Nomura Securities expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in December, as recent indicators show the resilience of the US job market [9]. - **New Energy Policy**: The National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting the integrated development of new energy, including multi - field development and infrastructure construction [10]. - **Capital Market**: China Securities Regulatory Commission official said to improve the long - term investment environment and enhance the stability of the capital market [10]. - **Mining Rights**: Ningde Times may need to pay 177 million yuan for mining rights in Jiangxi [12]. - **Hamas - Israel Ceasefire**: Hamas said the previous ceasefire agreement with Israel was a "preliminary agreement" [12]. - **Fed's Divergence**: There are internal differences within the Fed, which casts a shadow over the path of interest rate cuts [13]. - **US Economic Data**: Due to the government shutdown, key economic reports in October may not be released [14]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **LNG Supply**: Russia's LNG supply to Spain dropped significantly in October, ranking fifth [16]. - **Oil Inventory in UAE**: As of the week of November 12, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah Port, UAE increased, with different changes in different fractions [16]. - **Energy Demand Forecast**: The IEA said global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050 [16]. - **Japanese Oil Inventory**: Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased in the week of November 8. The refinery's average operating rate decreased [18]. - **US Oil Drilling**: The Trump administration plans to open the California coast for oil drilling, which has been condemned [18]. - **China's Chemical Inventory**: As of November 12, China's butadiene - styrene rubber inventory increased, asphalt refinery capacity utilization decreased, and methanol port inventory increased [19]. - **Malaysian Rubber**: Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 14.8% in September compared to August [20]. - **OPEC Forecast**: OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, and its production decreased in October [20]. - **EIA Forecast**: EIA slightly adjusted its crude oil price forecast for 2025 [20]. Metal Futures - **Silver Company's Maintenance**: Hunan Baoshan Non - ferrous Metal Mining Co., Ltd. will conduct a 20 - day maintenance from November 11, which will not affect the annual production plan [23]. - **Copper Price Forecast**: Citi expects copper prices to rise in 2026 [24]. - **Copper Rod Production**: China's recycled copper rod production decreased in October [24]. - **Platinum Conference**: The 2025 China Platinum Group Metals Market Annual Conference will be held in Hainan in December [24]. Black - Series Futures - **Building Materials and Hot - Rolled Coils**: As of the week of November 12, the production and inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils in China changed. Building material production and inventory decreased, while hot - rolled coil production increased and inventory decreased [26]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: The auction prices of coking coal in Linfen fluctuated on November 12, with a 14.5% non - successful bid rate [26]. - **Pollution Response**: Handan launched a level - II emergency response to heavy pollution weather [28]. - **Iron Ore Project**: The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea was officially put into production, with a total investment of over $20 billion [28]. Agricultural Futures - **Palm Oil Export**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 49.53% compared to the same period last month [30]. - **Palm Oil Production**: Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to reach a record 20 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year [31]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: Argentine farmers' soybean sales in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons continued, with different purchase volumes from local oil mills and export industries [31]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased slightly on November 12, and the average pork price decreased by 1.2% [31]. 3. Financial Market Finance - **Stock Market Conference**: At the Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference, officials said to reform the capital market, optimize the structure of listed companies, and attract foreign investment. Foreign investors' holdings of A - shares have increased [34]. - **A - Share Market**: A - shares fluctuated. The photovoltaic industry chain declined, while bank and insurance sectors strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, and the trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan [35]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.85% to 26922.73 points. Southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$43 billion [35]. - **Stock Ratings**: Since the end of October, brokers have adjusted the ratings of A - share stocks, with 23 upgrades and 40 downgrades [37]. - **Fund Issuance**: The number of newly issued funds this year reached a three - year high, with a trend of "strong equity, weak bond" [37]. - **Company Earnings**: Hon Hai's Q3 revenue met expectations, and its net profit increased by 30% quarter - on - quarter. The company expects AI server revenue to surge in Q4 and will disclose cooperation with OpenAI [38]. Industry - **Automobile Standard**: The Ministry of Public Security solicited opinions on the national standard for motor vehicle safety, including speed - limit requirements and battery safety for new energy vehicles [39]. - **Drug Procurement**: The 11th batch of national drug procurement results were announced, covering 55 drugs [39]. - **Industrial Projects**: The market and industry regulators launched "ten key projects" to support new productive forces, and the World Power Battery Conference had 180 signed projects worth 86.13 billion yuan [41]. - **New Energy Vehicle Factory**: China's first electric vertical take - off and landing vehicle factory with a "tens of thousands - level" production capacity has entered the trial - production stage [42]. - **Storage Market**: After the sharp rise in NAND flash memory prices, some storage manufacturers plan to raise prices [42]. Overseas - **US Government Shutdown**: The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, which may end the government shutdown [43]. - **US Tariffs**: The US Treasury Secretary said the government will announce "substantial" tariff news and may provide tax rebates to low - income families [45]. - **Fed's Chair Candidate**: A candidate for the Fed chair position hopes for a larger interest rate cut in December [45]. - **Fed's Divergence**: Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [45]. - **Japan's Economy**: Japan plans to increase spending to support its economy [45]. - **French Economy**: The French central bank may raise GDP growth forecasts [46]. - **Indian CPI**: India's October CPI rose 0.25% year - on - year, lower than expected [47]. International Stock Markets - **US Stock Market**: US stocks closed mixed. The Dow rose 0.68%, the S&P 500 rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.26%. Most Chinese concept stocks fell [48]. - **European Stock Market**: European stocks rose across the board, driven by the easing of the US government shutdown risk and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [50]. - **Stock Market Outlook**: Goldman Sachs said the high valuation of US stocks will limit future returns, while emerging markets may have higher returns [50]. - **Company Plans**: Luckin Coffee is planning to return to the US stock market, and Korean investors' holdings of US stocks reached a record high [51]. - **Indian Market Reform**: The Indian Securities and Exchange Board plans reforms to attract foreign investors [52]. Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell due to OPEC's demand forecast cut, increased US API crude oil inventory, and concerns about supply surplus [53]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metal prices rose as investors turned to safe - haven assets because of the approaching end of the US government shutdown and geopolitical risks [52]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals rose [55]. - **Energy Forecasts**: EIA adjusted its crude oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026. The IEA said global oil and gas demand may grow until 2050, and OPEC expects the oil market to balance in 2026 [55][56]. - **Iron Ore Project**: The Simandou iron ore project was put into production, with large reserves and high - grade iron [56]. Bonds - **Domestic Bonds**: The domestic bond market warmed up, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and bond futures rising. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations and increased liquidity [58]. - **Russian Bonds**: Russia plans to issue RMB - denominated sovereign bonds [58]. - **US Bonds**: The US Treasury Secretary said to maintain the scale of US Treasury auctions and consider increasing long - term bond issuance [58]. - **Global Bond Market**: The global bond issuance scale exceeded $6 trillion this year, and the US investment - grade bond issuance scale is close to the historical high [58]. Foreign Exchange - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Wednesday, and the central parity rate was also adjusted up [61]. - **Yen**: The Japanese finance minister warned of potential intervention as the yen approached a key level against the US dollar [61]. - **Dollar Index**: The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies had different performances [61]. 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: A series of economic data from different countries will be released, including unemployment rates, GDP, and inflation data [63]. - **Events**: There are central bank meetings, corporate earnings announcements, and industry conferences scheduled [65].

Group 1: Hot News - "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the internal division in the Fed has cast a shadow over the rate - cut path, with such a degree of division having few precedents in Fed Chair Powell's nearly eight - year tenure [2] - China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice - Chairman Li Ming stated that on the investment side, efforts will be made to continuously improve the market ecosystem for long - term investment, promote the implementation of the plan to boost the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, strengthen strategic force reserves and market - stabilizing mechanism construction, enhance the internal stability of the capital market, and prevent sharp market fluctuations [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement on the 12th, clarifying that "all the rumors on the Internet are false information" and vowing to fight against malicious short - selling of the photovoltaic industry [2] - Malaysian trade and industry officials said Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons [2] - Citi expects copper prices to continue to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 ($14,000 per ton in a bullish scenario), and to trade at around $11,000 per ton for the rest of this year [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are low - sulfur fuel oil, soda ash, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a night - session increase of 3.32%, precious metals 29.95%, oilseeds 9.49%, non - ferrous metals and soft commodities 2.66% and 23.18% respectively, coal, coke, and steel ore 12.44%, energy 2.91%, chemicals 10.95%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.90% [3] Group 4: Asset Performance Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.07%, a monthly increase of 1.15%, and a yearly increase of 19.34%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 0.32%, a monthly increase of 1.09%, and a yearly increase of 13.39%; the CSI 300 had a daily decline of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.11%, and a yearly increase of 18.07%; the CSI 500 had a daily decline of 0.66%, a monthly decline of 1.20%, and a yearly increase of 26.50%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly increase of 0.16%, and a yearly increase of 16.48%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly increase of 3.92%, and a yearly increase of 34.21%; the German DAX had a daily increase of 1.22%, a monthly increase of 1.77%, and a yearly increase of 22.46%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 0.43%, a monthly decline of 2.57%, and a yearly increase of 28.00%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.12%, a monthly increase of 2.00%, and a yearly increase of 21.27% [5] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.02%, a monthly decline of 0.15%, and a yearly decline of 0.37%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%, a monthly decline of 0.09%, and a yearly decline of 0.54%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.01%, a monthly decline of 0.07%, and a yearly decline of 0.49% [5] Commodity - The CRB Commodity Index had a daily decline of 1.43%, a monthly increase of 0.04%, and a yearly increase of 2.00%; WTI crude oil had a daily decline of 4.10%, a monthly decline of 3.83%, and a yearly decline of 18.60%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 1.68%, a monthly increase of 4.79%, and a yearly increase of 59.85%; LME copper had a daily increase of 0.65%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, and a yearly increase of 24.09%; the Wind Commodity Index had a daily increase of 0.37%, a monthly increase of 1.50%, and a yearly increase of 32.59% [5] Other - The US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.00%, a monthly decline of 0.25%, and a yearly decline of 8.30%; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily change of 0.00%, a monthly decline of 0.92%, and a yearly decline of 0.40% [5]