1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown, the short - term liquidity problem in the market is solved, and the market risk preference increases. There is still uncertainty about the Fed rate cut in December. The FedWatch tool shows that the cumulative rate cut by the end of 2026 is only 80 basis points. Fundamentally, the copper mine supply remains tight, but with the increase in scrap copper and the partial resumption of smelters, copper production shows an increasing trend. The demand side is in the transition from peak to off - peak season, and some emerging industries provide continuous demand. Due to the game between tight supply at the mine end and weakening demand, copper is expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range. Attention should be paid to the economic data released after the US government resumes work and the change in the probability of rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis Macro - On November 12 local time, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the US government shutdown. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 16.7% [3]. Supply - In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a total crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected impact on production of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October have gradually resumed production, and with the increase in copper prices, the production enthusiasm has increased, and output is expected to rise. Scrap copper supply has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources [3]. Demand - With the increase in the copper price center, downstream consumption is restricted. Traditional industries have seen demand pre - empted due to previous tariffs and national subsidy policies, and the recent trading atmosphere is weak. Except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is generally poor. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing and is currently higher than the same period last year. As of November 14, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% [3]. 3.2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper oscillated and rose. The weekly high was 87,920 yuan/ton, the low was 85,750 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.53%, and the range increase was 1.12% [5]. 3.3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of November 17, the average spot premium in East China was 75 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was 10 yuan/ton. Sellers tried to maintain high prices, but downstream buyers were less willing to accept high prices, putting pressure on the premium [10]. 3.4. London Copper Spread Structure - As of November 14, LME copper rose 0.99% during the week, closing at $10,850/ton, mainly due to the end of the US government shutdown and the increase in market risk preference [14]. 3.5. Copper Concentrate Supply - Customs data on November 14 showed that the copper concentrate port inventory was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.43%. The inventory continued to recover but was still lower than the same period last year, and the tight supply of raw materials at the mine end had not improved. SMM expects the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance in 2025 to be - 330,000 metal tons. In October 2025, China imported 2.451 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to October, the cumulative import was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [19]. 3.6. Scrap Copper Supply - From January to September 2025, China imported 1.4496 million metal tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. After the increase in copper prices, scrap copper supply increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. Some regions may resume government support for recycled copper rod enterprises, but the implementation details are yet to be determined after next week's tax payment [25]. 3.7. Smelter Fees - As of November 14, China's spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. In the 2026 long - term contract negotiation, there was a "zero - processing - fee" situation (Antofagasta locked 50% of the ore volume with Chinese smelters at $0/dry ton), and the market expects the remaining 50% of the ore volume to have a negative price [29]. 3.8. Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's estimated electrolytic copper production in China was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,400 tons. The estimated production in November is 1.0876 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, but with the resumption of some enterprises and the increase in production enthusiasm, output is expected to rise. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters was 85.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper was 63.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In October 2025, China imported 438,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to October, the cumulative import was 4.456 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [33]. 3.9. Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%. With the increase in the copper price center, downstream consumption is restricted, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is generally poor [38]. 3.10. Copper Products - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62%; the copper tube production was 121,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons or 11.29%. Last week, the orders in the refined copper rod market decreased week - on - week due to the increase in copper prices and weak downstream demand. The trading of copper strips weakened, and downstream procurement was cautious. The copper tube market was dragged down by the low operating rate of the air - conditioning industry. The copper foil market was relatively active due to the high production schedule of downstream battery factories [43]. 3.11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%; the installed wind power capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the national average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, a decrease of 251 hours compared with the same period last year [47]. 3.12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% [54]. 3.13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 51.6% of total new vehicle sales. In addition, new energy vehicle exports exceeded 2 million for the first time. From January to October, new energy vehicle exports were 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.4% [58]. 3.14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges LME - As of November 14, LME copper inventory decreased by 175 tons to 135,700 tons. Although there was inventory accumulation, it was still significantly lower than the same period last year [63]. COMEX - As of November 14, COMEX copper inventory was 381,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.23% and a year - on - year increase of 328%. The US continued to hoard copper, causing an imbalance in the global copper inventory supply [63]. Shanghai and Guangdong Bonded Areas - This week, the cumulative spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 115,200 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. Some smelter export goods arrived and were stored in the warehouse this week, and inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [68]. Shanghai Futures Exchange - As of November 14, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% and higher than the same period last year [3][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, after the U.S. government ended its shutdown, market sentiment varied, and asset trends diverged. The controversy over AI bubble resurfaced, and the high - level decline of safe - haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin raised market concerns, resulting in a decline in investors' risk appetite and a slight increase in the VIX volatility index. Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, with A - shares leading the decline after reaching a high, while the Hang Seng Index had a relatively large increase. The BDI index rose, U.S. bond yields increased, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose [4][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of 3.92%. Among the 10 commodity sub - sector indices, 6 closed up and 4 closed down. Commodity futures generally maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products [4][13]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Global asset trends: Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, A - shares led the decline after reaching a high, the Hang Seng Index rose, the BDI index increased, U.S. bond yields went up, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose, with precious metals stabilizing, rebounding, and then fluctuating at a high level, and copper and oil prices slightly rebounding [4][8]. - Domestic market performance: The domestic bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 3.92%. Commodity futures maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products, with precious metals leading the rise, followed by significant increases in the agricultural products, grains, and oilseeds sectors. The non - ferrous and chemical sectors slightly closed up, while other sectors all closed down, with the coal, coking, steel, and mining and energy sectors having the largest declines [4][13]. - Futures market capital flow: The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flowed in. The precious metals, non - metallic building materials, oilseeds, and non - ferrous sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the soft commodities, coal, coking, steel, and mining, and chemical sectors had obvious capital outflows [4][15]. - Commodity volatility: The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index significantly increased, while the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index showed a divergent performance of one rising and one falling. Most of the commodity futures sub - sector volatilities declined, with the oilseeds, non - ferrous, soft commodities, and coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors having the largest decline in volatility, and the energy sector having the most obvious increase in volatility [5][22]. Variety Performance - The domestic major commodity futures showed mixed performance in the recent week. The top - rising commodity futures varieties were Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, and apples, while the top - falling varieties were glass, coke, and red dates [18][21]. Data Tracking - International commodities: International major commodities generally closed up, the BDI slightly increased, the CRB was flat, soybeans and corn rose, and copper, oil, gold, and silver all closed up, with the silver price rising more and the gold - silver ratio significantly declining [26]. - Domestic data: Asphalt production rate continued to decline, real - estate sales were weakly bottom - seeking, freight rates rebounded with differentiation, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [41]. Macro Logic - Stock market: The domestic four major stock indices fluctuated and declined last week. In terms of style, value stocks were obviously more resistant to decline, while growth - style stock indices were relatively weaker. The valuation of stock indices declined, and the equity risk premium (ERP) changed little [30][31]. - Commodities: The commodity price index fluctuated and rebounded, and the inflation expectation was under downward pressure [34]. - U.S. bonds: U.S. bond yields rebounded, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread changed little, the real interest rate rebounded, and the gold price rebounded and then declined [49]. - U.S. economic indicators: The U.S. high - frequency "recession indicator" weakened, the Citi Economic Surprise Index showed differentiation, and the 10Y - 3M U.S. bond spread fluctuated in positive territory [60]. Fed Interest Rate Expectation The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 17): Canada's October CPI monthly rate, U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index [73]. - Tuesday (November 18): U.S. October Import Price Index monthly rate, U.S. October Industrial Production monthly rate, U.S. November NAHB Housing Market Index, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari hosts a fireside chat, Reserve Bank of Australia releases November Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed visits the White House and meets with U.S. President Trump [73]. - Wednesday (November 19): U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, UK October CPI monthly rate, Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value, U.S. October New Housing Starts annualized, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending November 14 [73]. - Thursday (November 20): China's October Swift RMB share in global payments, China's one - year loan prime rate as of November 20, Germany's October PPI monthly rate, Switzerland's October trade balance, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15, U.S. November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Eurozone November Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value, U.S. October Existing Home Sales annualized, U.S. October Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate, U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending November 14, Fed releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, September non - farm payroll data [73]. - Friday (November 21): Japan's October core CPI annual rate, UK November Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, UK November Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Canada's September retail sales monthly rate, U.S. November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value, U.S. November one - year inflation rate expectation final value, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee gives a speech, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker gives a speech on the economic outlook, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech [73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic futures market on November 17, 2025, showed a mixed performance. Some commodities like lithium carbonate and shipping index (European line) rose, while others such as silver and gold futures declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and market factors affecting their price trends [6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices showed a weak - upward trend. Although copper mines were in short supply, the increase in scrap copper and partial resumption of smelters led to an upward trend in production. Demand was transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Overall, copper was expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state, and attention should be paid to US economic data and interest - rate cut probabilities [10][12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It had a strong performance, hitting the daily limit. Supply was increasing, and demand was strong due to the performance of energy - storage batteries. The market was in a tight - balance state, supporting the strong performance of the lithium carbonate futures [13]. - **Silver and Gold**: Silver futures dropped by over 4%, and gold futures fell by over 3% [8]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The supply - surplus situation was exacerbated by OPEC +'s production increase in the fourth quarter, and demand was weakening. Saudi Aramco lowered prices, and US production reached a record high. It was expected that crude oil prices would oscillate weakly [14][15]. - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased, and demand was weakening. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, asphalt prices were expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Chemicals - **PP**: Although downstream demand was in the peak season, the follow - up of orders was limited. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, PP prices were expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate was stable, but downstream demand was weakening. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, plastic prices were expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **PVC**: Supply was still at a relatively high level, and demand was weak. With the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, PVC prices were expected to oscillate and face pressure [21]. Coal - **Coking Coal**: Prices showed an upward trend. Although there were short - term factors affecting supply, the overall supply was expected to be in a tight - balance state. Market sentiment was boosted by macro - policy expectations [22][23]. Others - **Urea**: Supply was relatively loose, but the release of export quotas supported the market. It was expected that the Indian tender situation would affect the domestic urea market sentiment [24].

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1610 1630 -20 河南 1600 1610 -10 山东 1590 1600 -10 山西 1480 1480 0 江苏 1580 1590 -10 安徽 1590 1590 0 黑龙江 1670 1670 0 内蒙古 1650 1650 0 河北东光 1580 1620 -40 山东华鲁 1590 1620 -30 江苏灵谷 1640 1670 -30 安徽昊源 1580 1600 -20 山东05基差 -131 -128 -3 山东01基差 -154 -148 -6 河北05基差 -91 -98 7 河北01基差 -114 -118 4 1-5价差 73 73 0 5-9价差 -23 -20 -3 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 7183 7183 0 中东FOB 377.5 378 -1 美湾FOB 382.5 389.5 -7 埃及FOB 490 486 4 波罗的海FOB 377.5 380 -3 巴西CFR 421.5 425 -4 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 2.62% at $4084.4 per ounce (weekly gain of 1.86%) and COMEX silver futures down 5.21% at $50.4 per ounce (weekly gain of 4.69%) [5] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil futures rose, with the U.S. oil main contract up 2.15% at $59.95 per barrel (weekly gain of 0.18%) and the Brent crude oil main contract up 1.97% at $64.25 per barrel (weekly gain of 0.97%) [6] - London base metals fell across the board, with LME aluminum down 1.31%, zinc down 1.33%, tin down 1.00%, copper down 1.00%, nickel down 0.67%, and lead down 0.58% [6] - Domestic futures contracts mostly declined, with methanol and glass down over 1%, and caustic soda and rapeseed oil down nearly 1%. Coke, styrene (EB), and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose [7] 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - The State Council executive meeting emphasized promoting the "Two Major" construction, optimizing project review, and leveraging various funds [10] - The People's Bank of China will conduct an 800 billion yuan six - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation [10] - In October, 313 out of 623 industrial products had year - on - year output growth, including increases in ten non - ferrous metals, ethylene, and new energy vehicles [11] - In October, industrial coal production was high, and oil and gas production increased steadily [11] - The overall national economy in October was stable, but faced challenges from the external environment and structural adjustments [12] - In October, industrial power generation increased by 7.9% year - on - year, with an accelerated growth rate [13] - The Ministry of Finance aims to expand effective investment and promote the construction of a unified market [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - The production and capacity utilization of corrugated paper and boxboard paper decreased due to equipment maintenance [15] - The total port inventory of xylene decreased, with a decline in East China ports [15] - The capacity utilization rate of China's refinery reforming units increased slightly [17] - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic silicone DMC monomer plants increased [17] - Iran seized an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf [17] Metal Futures - Platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025 [19] - The inventory of lithium ore at ports and warehouses decreased [19] - The inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 ports in China increased [19] - The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces decreased [19] Black - Series Futures - The national blast furnace operating rate changed little, while the electric furnace operating rate increased [23] - The purchase price of coke by Hebei steel mills increased [23] - The starting price of coking coal auction by Mongolia's ETT company decreased [24] - The inventory of imported iron ore at ports increased, and the daily port clearance volume also rose [24] - The inventory of imported iron ore of steel mills increased, and the daily consumption increased [26] - The third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections will start [26] - The total urban steel inventory decreased [26] Agricultural Product Futures - It is expected that the price of Malaysian palm oil futures will rise to 4300 - 4400 ringgit per metric ton in Q1 2026 [28] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 46th week was lower than expected, and the operating rate is expected to rise in the 47th week [28] - The planned shipment of Brazilian soybeans to China increased, and the shipped volume also rose [28] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture's November report showed a decrease in soybean yield, production, and ending inventory expectations [29] - The U.S. adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" for agricultural products [29] 3. Financial Markets Finance - At the end of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance funds reached 37.46 trillion yuan, with an increase in stock investment. Bank stocks were favored, and other industries were also adjusted [31] - Since November, nearly 770 companies have received institutional research, with a focus on the electronics and machinery sectors [31] - Last week, southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$247.73 billion, with Xiaomi Group - W receiving the highest net purchase [31] - The IPO review of technology companies has accelerated, and the overall IPO market has also seen a faster pace [33] - The A - share market is expected to have faster sector rotation and a more balanced style [33] - The domestic ETF market has developed rapidly in 2025, with the number and scale of new ETFs breaking records [33] Industry - AI will enable robots to "understand the world" in the next decade [34] - The substitution effect of second - hand housing for new housing is increasing [34] - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate in 2026 are expected to be basically balanced, but prices may rise if demand grows rapidly [35] - From January to October, railway passenger volume reached a record high [35] - The global clothing market size is expected to reach $1.84 trillion in 2025 [36] Overseas - The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that Trump's tariff subsidy plan needs congressional approval [37] - The U.S. Trade Representative will visit Europe for trade negotiations [37] - Trump bought at least $820 million in corporate and municipal bonds [37] - Samsung, Hyundai, and LG will invest a total of about $464 billion in South Korea in the next five years [37] - Japan's economic stimulus plan will exceed 17 trillion yen [38] International Stock Markets - Wall Street hedge funds reduced their holdings of U.S. "Magnificent Seven" stocks in Q3 and increased investment in other sectors [40] - Chinese institutions increased their holdings of U.S. stocks such as Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Google in Q3 [40] - The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust sold 17 million shares of Microsoft in Q3 [40] - Saudi Arabia's PIF cleared its positions in more than a dozen U.S. stocks [41] Commodities - Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations on November 16 [42] Bonds - Bank of China issued dim - sum bonds for technology companies in Hong Kong, with high subscription rates [44] - Bond ETFs have continued to grow significantly this year, with a record - high scale [44] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Japan's Q3 GDP preliminary value, UK's November Rightmove average house asking price index, and other data will be released [46] Events - There are central bank operations, speeches by central bank officials, and important international meetings scheduled [48]

Group 1: Hot News - In October, China's industrial added - value above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year, high - tech manufacturing by 7.2%, service production index by 4.6%, and social consumer goods retail by 2.9%. From January to October, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7%, real estate development investment by 14.7%, and new commercial housing sales area by 6.8% [2] - In October, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined both month - on - month and year - on - year. All 70 cities saw a month - on - month decline in second - hand housing prices, with narrowing declines in first - and second - tier cities. The number of cities with rising new housing prices month - on - month was 7, one more than last month [2] - Platinum and palladium futures contracts will be listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27. The initial trading margin is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit is 14% [2] - In October, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $8.2 billion, the fifth consecutive month of inflows. The cumulative net inflow of $72 billion in the first ten months set a record [3] - Russia's Novorossiysk Black Sea port resumed oil loading operations on November 16 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, Shanghai copper, silver, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 3.24%, precious metals 30.16%, oilseeds and oils 9.85%, soft commodities 2.51%, non - ferrous metals 23.35%, coal, coke, steel and ore 12.33%, energy 2.76%, chemicals 10.75%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.88% [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - Date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.97 | 0.90 | 19.06 | | | SSE 50 | - 1.15 | 0.89 | 13.17 | | | CSI 300 | - 1.57 | - 0.27 | 17.62 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.63 | - 1.30 | 26.37 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.05 | - 1.55 | 14.49 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.85 | 2.57 | 32.47 | | | German DAX | - 0.69 | - 0.34 | 19.93 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 1.77 | - 3.88 | 26.27 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 1.11 | - 0.19 | 18.66 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.00 | - 0.24 | - 0.47 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.00 | - 0.18 | - 0.62 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.01 | - 0.09 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | - 0.06 | 1.90 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 2.10 | - 1.56 | - 16.69 | | | London Spot Gold | - 2.13 | 1.99 | 55.56 | | | LME Copper | - 1.00 | - 0.42 | 23.51 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 1.44 | 1.95 | 33.18 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.11 | - 0.45 | - 8.48 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | - 0.85 | 13.70 | 14.29 | [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PVC will experience volatile consolidation in the near term. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC boosts market confidence and social inventory decreases slightly, factors such as the upcoming implementation of India's anti - dumping tax, high futures warehouse receipts, and weak cost support due to the end of maintenance by some production enterprises will still put pressure on PVC [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC production start - up rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC start - up rate has started to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India, but the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping tax has led traders to adopt a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a week - on - week decline in export orders last week. Social inventory decreased slightly this week but remains high, and inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and it will take time for improvement [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 4,580 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,635 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,608 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.72%. The position volume decreased by 44,024 lots to 1,348,369 lots [2]. - Basis: On November 14, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,535 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,608 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 73 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC production start - up rate to decrease by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% week - on - week. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line that started mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production line that was put into operation in early September and is currently approaching full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang's and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year production lines operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of November 9, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline by 32.15% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory decreased slightly but remains high [6].

报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Cost increases and the Double Eleven peak season have pushed up PP prices, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so PP is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawing grade dropped to around 23% [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has a limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 by OPEC [1]. - The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, so the boost to the market is limited [1]. - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,468 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,518 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,474 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.40%. The open interest decreased by 6,371 lots to 622,052 lots [2]. - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions were stable. The drawing grade was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton week - on - week [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the crude oil market will remain in a supply - surplus situation, with the price expected to experience weak and volatile fluctuations. The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and rising exports from the Middle East all contribute to the supply - surplus situation. The adjustment by OPEC from a shortage to a surplus in Q3 2025 and the IEA's prediction of slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 further solidify this view [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil to Asia in December. The end of the demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and a record - high US crude oil production all add to the supply pressure. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies, potential changes in India's oil imports, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela also impact the market. The market is concerned about weakening demand due to factors like the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index [1]. - The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.66% to 457.4 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.9 yuan/ton and a high of 462.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 7,385 to 11,067 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA predicts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC adjusted the Q3 2025 global oil situation from shortage to surplus and the 2026 situation from a shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. IEA raised the global crude oil supply and demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - As of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. OPEC's September production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day, while its October production increased mainly due to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ production decreased in October compared to September. US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day in the week of November 7 [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.38%. Gasoline and diesel weekly demand increased, driving a 2.03% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].