| 尿素日度数据图表 | 研究咨询部 | 2026/1/14 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一周走势 | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 河北 | 1740 | 1740 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 河南 | 1750 | 1740 | 10 | 山东 | 1740 | 1740 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1630 | 1620 | 10 | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1760 | 1750 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | 安徽 | 1760 | 1750 | 10 | 黑龙江 | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 内蒙古 | 1790 | 1790 | 0 | 河北东光 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soda ash industry is short - term volatility [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved. Although there is short - term support from policy expectations and market sentiment, the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and prices may fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support trend near the 20 - day moving average. Future focus should be on downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened low and closed high, with an intraday volatile rebound. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 11,220 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,412 lots. The intraday high was 1232, the low was 1206, and the closing price was 1222, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was stable with slight fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range change. The third phase of Henan Zhongyuan resumed operation, and the production increased. The downstream trading atmosphere was average, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, maintaining low - price and just - in - time procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 28 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20 percentage points; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24 percentage points [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of some glass production lines at the end of last month [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The price of raw material ore salt was stable during the week, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. One glass production line started production yesterday, and the cold - repair pace slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In addition, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the breeding industry chain is "oscillating upward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market will maintain an oscillating upward trend, with production and sales differentiation persisting [1] - The domestic corn spot market is advancing steadily, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [1] - For eggs, it's advisable to wait and see for now due to high - resistance in capacity elimination [2] - For the far - month contracts of live pigs, it's recommended to buy on dips as there is an upward price expectation [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The production - sales differentiation in the soybean market is hard to reverse in the short term, with the northeast region's price increase lacking terminal demand support and the sales area under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [1] - The purchase and sale two - way bidding transaction of 30,000 tons of domestic soybeans by CGC Grain & Oil Co., Ltd. had a 100% transaction rate, indicating some market demand support [1] Corn - Since the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic corn spot market has advanced steadily, and the expected selling pressure has not materialized while the sales progress is over 50% in the northeast [1] - The local reserve rotation auction in the northeast region was popular this week, and the price was at a premium compared to the current spot [1] - The single - period supply of imported corn auctions will be halved to 100,000 tons next week, presenting opportunities to buy on dips [1] Egg - In December, the laying hen inventory dropped to 1.295 billion, with a young - dominated structure accounting for over 80%, resulting in high resistance in capacity elimination [2] - Without the egg price falling below the feed cost, the industry lacks the motivation to actively clear capacity [2] Live Pig - In 2025, the actual live pig slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises reached 155.79 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024, showing a stable supply foundation [3] - The actual slaughter volume showed significant pre - and post - holiday differences and seasonality, with the lowest in February at 10.349 million and the highest in December at 14.5822 million [3] - The capacity reduction of live pigs has accelerated significantly, indicating an upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol futures market maintains a slight oscillation, with support at the 60 - day moving average. There's a high possibility of a inventory inflection point in Q1 2026, and investors can focus on buying opportunities after price dips. Currently, methanol is undervalued. Although the overall rebound is limited by weak downstream demand, it is likely to rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9,690 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in South China decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was due to a small total unloading volume. The visible unloading of foreign vessels was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased, while that in Fujian remained stable [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for products including methanol will be cancelled [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a slight oscillation, and the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart provides support. There's a high chance of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Investors can consider buying after price drops. Methanol is undervalued, and its rebound is restricted by weak downstream demand, but it may rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene has significant supply - demand pressure, and although it rebounds due to overall sentiment, the upside space is limited. Consider hedging opportunities if it continues to rise [4]. - Styrene is short - term strong due to the short - term rebound of the overall commodity market, export disruptions, and unexpected de - stocking. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average on the daily K - line and look for low - buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - From January 2nd to 8th, the total output of Chinese styrene factories was 355,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69% [1]. - From January 2nd to 8th, the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS, the downstream products of styrene, increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 259,700 tons [1]. - As of January 8th, the styrene factory inventory was 162,300 tons, a 5.48% decrease from the previous week; as of January 12th, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 100,600 tons, a 23.96% decrease from the previous week [1]. - As of January 12th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 250.79 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 660.46 yuan/ton [1]. - According to past industry rules, January - March is the off - season for styrene demand, with a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation. This year, due to the late Spring Festival, the time for seasonal production reduction is also late [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic. Starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled, including multiple chemical and electronic products [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - No specific analysis content is provided in the given report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains strong year-on-year. It is normal for the demand to decline slightly in the off-season. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, exerting some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 8,625 lots, with a trading volume of 309,018 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,297 yuan, and the high was 3,316 yuan. It showed an intraday increase in open interest and oscillated. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The futures-spot basis was -16 yuan, with the futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was 16,200 tons higher year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the intensified resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills, driving the supply to recover. The subsequent recovery strength needs to be observed [4]. - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand slightly declined, but it was 72,500 tons higher year-on-year, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 28,300 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, but the destocking amplitude narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A decline in supply-side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush to export, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, the seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and the suppression of prices by inventory accumulation [5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 14, 2026 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 14, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Shanghai Tin rose 8%, Shanghai Silver rose over 8%, Fuel Oil rose over 6%, and Platinum rose over 3%. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Pure Benzene rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Lithium Carbonate fell over 3%, Caustic Soda fell over 2%, and Glass, Polysilicon, Coking Coal, and Rapeseed Meal fell over 1% [6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.29%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.62%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.09%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract remained flat, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract rose 0.08%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.04% [7]. 1.2 Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on January 14, in terms of capital inflows into domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an inflow of 4.395 billion yuan, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 4.248 billion yuan, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 2603 had an inflow of 3.545 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 785 million yuan, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, and Alumina 2605 had an outflow of 316 million yuan [7]. 2. Market Analysis of Key Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened high and moved higher, rising during the day. The US inflation data in December increased market expectations of an interest rate cut in April. In terms of supply, copper smelters are facing profit challenges, and refined copper production is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. In terms of demand, terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper product sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. The market is worried about the US refining copper tariff, which supports the copper price [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and then declined during the day. In December 2025, production increased, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand for energy storage batteries remains strong, but the export tax rebate policy adjustment and the exchange's trading policy adjustment have affected the market. Despite the downward movement in the short term, the overall sentiment is still bullish, with the risk of CATL resuming production [11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory increased. The market is still worried about demand, and the global crude oil market is in a state of oversupply. The situation in Iran and Venezuela may affect the supply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [12][13]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the expected production in January 2026 also decreased. The downstream demand is weak in the north and average in the south. The situation in Venezuela may affect the raw material supply and production cost of domestic asphalt. It is recommended to focus on the raw material shortage of domestic refineries and consider reverse arbitrage [14][16]. 2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP is at a low level, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a medium - low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and the supply is increasing with new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The upward space of PP is expected to be limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and new capacity has been put into production. The downstream demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak, and the export is average. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. With the cancellation of export tax rebates, the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened low and then adjusted downward nearly 2% during the day. The supply of imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. Coking enterprises and steel mills are replenishing inventory. Despite the short - term adjustment, Coking Coal is expected to remain strong in the long term [22]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and rose over 2% during the day. The daily production has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The agricultural demand is increasing, but the industrial demand is weakening due to the approaching Spring Festival. The short - term strength of urea is expected to be difficult to sustain, and it will be adjusted at a high level [23].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain in a short - term oscillatory adjustment with limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the support near the 20 - day line [1]. - The sugar market has a large supply pressure in the near - term, with weak short - term upward momentum. However, the double - festival stocking may boost demand, and it may be possible to buy on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - On January 13, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton price index of 3128B grade was 15,605 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton from the previous day; 3129B grade was 15,715 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan/ton; double 28 grade was 15,659 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton; double 29 grade was 15,763 yuan/ton, up 167 yuan/ton [1]. - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract rebounded significantly, with the highest reaching 14,890 yuan/ton, and the basis quotation in Xinjiang strengthened. Spinning enterprises mainly made purchases through point - price transactions, and the spot transaction price of double 29 in Xinjiang was between 15,600 - 15,800 yuan/ton [1]. - The USDA report on cotton is slightly bullish, but the price increase space is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases downstream [1]. Sugar - In the first half of December, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons or 32.83%; the ATR of sugarcane was 143.02 kg/ton, an increase of 26.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year; the sugar - making ratio was 31.47%, a decrease of 4.81% compared to the same period last year; ethanol production was 740 million liters, a year - on - year decrease of 22 million liters or 2.89%; sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons or 28.76% [2]. - The basis repair between sugar futures and spot has been basically completed, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month still has a large supply pressure, and the short - term upward momentum is weak. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets may attract more imports, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment supports the upward movement of copper prices. The US inflation data in December 2026 increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in April. The supply side has issues such as unprofitable long - term contracts for smelters and potential production decline in January. The demand side has strong terminal demand but a cautious copper products sector, and there is a large inventory build - up. Concerns about US tariffs and inventory hoarding support the copper price [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and rose during the day. The US December inflation data showed that overall CPI was up 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI was up 2.6% year - on - year, both were flat with November and lower than market expectations. After seasonal adjustment, CPI was up 0.3% month - on - month as expected, and core CPI was up 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. In 2026, copper smelters can't profit from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weakly stable. By - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points. The refined - scrap copper price difference is still abnormal, but weak downstream demand restricts scrap copper trading. Five smelters plan to stop production in January, and one new smelter's start - up is postponed. Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore restarted merger negotiations, and if the deal is completed, they may control 15% of the global copper supply. Terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper products sector is cautious, and there is a large inventory build - up. The market is worried about the US proposing refined copper tariffs, which supports copper prices [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and rose during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 150 yuan/ton, and in South China is 30 yuan/ton. On January 13, 2026, the LME official price was 13310 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was +75 US dollars/ton [3]. 3. Supply Side - As of January 12, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 45.1 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.6 US cents/pound [5]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 149,300 tons, an increase of 27,212 tons from the previous period. As of January 12, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,000 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 141,600 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 529,500 short tons, an increase of 9,056 short tons from the previous period [8].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. The supply side shows a decline in new shipments, the demand side is slightly recovering, the port inventory is still increasing but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills, and the futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main futures contract of iron ore continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, closing at 821 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 238,000 lots, the open interest was 663,000 lots, and the settled funds were 11.969 billion yuan. Pay attention to the test near the previous high of 840 [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties changed little, and the swap price also had minor fluctuations. The PB powder in Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the Super Special powder was 704 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main swap was 108.00 (-0.18) US dollars/ton [1] - The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 42.9 yuan/ton with little change. The iron ore 2 - 5 spread was 16.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure and positive basis, with limited downside space and short - term continuation of the shock [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, especially in Brazil. The arrivals increased month - on - month. The previous high shipments are expected to support the high - level operation of arrivals. There are expectations of supply disturbances [2] - On the demand side, there are both blast furnace inspections and resumptions. The previously resumed blast furnaces have returned to full production, and the molten iron increased significantly month - on - month. The steel mill profitability weakened slightly. The daily consumption increased, the replenishment demand increased, but the inventory accumulation speed of steel mills was slow [2] - In terms of inventory, the port continued to accumulate a large amount of inventory, the pressure - port inventory increased, the inventory pressure was still accumulating. The steel mill inventory increased to some extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of replenishment demand was still slow [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: A series of data released by the US this week showed that the fundamentals continued to cool down. The overall overseas macro - driving logic has not changed significantly, including factors such as non - farm payrolls, ADP employment, job vacancies, and ISM PMIs. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell on January 12 increased investors' concerns about the weakening of the Fed's independence [3] - Domestic: Since the beginning of the year, the overall domestic macro - environment may continue to improve mildly, with the focus on the investment side. Although the current fundamentals are still in the off - season and at a weak level, the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered the key period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the early - approved projects in January are also expected to follow up, and the PMI and price data in December have improved mildly. Pay attention to the high - frequency physical work volume in January and the progress and continuity of policy implementation [3]