Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish view on the steel industry, suggesting that it is relatively safe to buy on dips [4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to reduce production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside, but infrastructure demand may have some resilience [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract decreased its open interest by 6,339 lots on Thursday. The trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 754,088 lots. It fluctuated throughout the day, with a short - term retracement to the 5 - day moving average and support from the 10 - day moving average. It remained above the 20 - day moving average in the medium term, closing at 3,160 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.13% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was stable at 3,300 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 140 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was cost - effective [1]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 1.903 million tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 29,900 tons lower year - on - year. The production decline provided some support to prices [2]. - Demand: Apparent consumption increased by 153,800 tons week - on - week to 1.9034 million tons as of the week of January 15, and was 51,900 tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, indicating that winter storage demand might have started [2]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 400 tons week - on - week to 4.3807 million tons. Social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons but was still at a low level in recent years, while steel mill inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the decrease in steel mill inventory suggested that traders were conducting winter storage [2]. Macro - environment - The central economic meeting proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new construction, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - environment was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Although incremental demand was relatively limited, the loose cycle provided some support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure [3]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory is at a three - year low, the supply side is reducing production due to anti - involution, production capacity is strictly controlled, policies support demand, post - holiday demand will marginally improve, and the macro - environment is expected to be loose [4]. - Bearish factors: Inventory may increase more than expected after the Spring Festival, the de - stocking speed may slow down, blast furnace restart may accelerate, winter storage demand is cautious, real estate demand continues to decline, exports are restricted, and economic recovery is weak [4]. Short - term View Summary - The short - term view is to maintain a cautiously bullish stance, pay attention to the support near the 10 - day moving average, and it is relatively safe to buy on dips [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to move in a volatile manner with limited upside potential due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream plastic weaving for drawstring decreased by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 15, there were few changes in the overhauled units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 24.5% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Due to the escalating turmoil in Iran, Trump's threat to interfere, the lack of progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the sanction bill on Russia, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of downstream BOPP film rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and moved in a volatile manner, with a low of 6552 yuan/ton, a high of 6664 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6592 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.24%. The open interest increased by 7306 lots to 491,662 lots [2] - Spot: Most of the PP spot prices in various regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6180 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 15, there were few changes in the overhauled units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 24.5% [1][4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream plastic weaving for drawstring decreased by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 530,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $750 per ton [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently in a high-inventory and high-supply pattern, with short-term prices remaining weak due to low-cost warehouse receipts and pre-holiday inventory reduction pressure. However, beware of overshoot rebounds. Focus on tracking the production reduction of caustic soda manufacturers as well as the operating conditions of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - From January 2nd to 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.8%, a week-on-week increase of 0.4% [1] - From January 3rd to 9th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 85.74%. From January 5th to 8th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 3.01% week-on-week to 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.72% week-on-week to 60.09% [1] - As of January 8th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week increase of 1.96% and a year-on-year increase of 76.03% [1] - From January 2nd to 8th, the weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises was 183 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic products. As of April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic products will be cancelled, including various lithium compounds, methanol, polyvinyl chloride products, and some silicon products [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The caustic soda market is in a high-inventory and high-supply pattern. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short-term decline is due to low-cost warehouse receipts and pre-holiday inventory reduction pressure. The winter is the off-season for chlor-alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons for chlor-alkali enterprises. The futures price has reached a new low [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比 apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, which exerts some pressure, but it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be alleviated. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average. Attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 530 lots, and the trading volume was 326,133 lots, showing a slight increase compared with the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,295 yuan, and the high was 3,314 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated during the day. From the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to find support near the 10-day moving average and then rebounded. It was operating strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average, closing at 3,307 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **现货价格**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was -17 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared with the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mill hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance, which promoted the increase in supply. The subsequent increase in supply needs to be observed [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared with the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared with the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Steel mill resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to remain in a short - term oscillatory adjustment with limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the support around the 20 - day line [1]. - The short - term upward momentum of the sugar market is weak, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand, and one can consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cotton - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% and a month - on - month increase of 8.89%. Among them, textile exports were $12.58 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16% and a month - on - month increase of 2.48%; clothing exports were $13.412 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.15% and a month - on - month increase of 15.69% [1]. - From January to December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $293.767 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.42%. Among them, textile exports were $142.585 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; clothing exports were $151.182 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1]. - The USDA's cotton report is slightly bullish, but the price increase space is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases downstream [1]. Sugar - In the first half of December, the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year, but the impact on the international sugar market was limited [2]. - The current focus of the short - term market is on the actual implementation of the production increase in the northern hemisphere main producing countries [2]. - The estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax is 3,947 yuan/ton, and that outside the quota is 5,011 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax compared with the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,573 yuan/ton, and that outside the quota is 509 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis repair of sugar futures and spot has basically been completed, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face great supply pressure [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metal market had a strong performance on January 14th with spot silver rising over 7% and hitting a record - high of $93 per ounce, and spot gold reaching a new high of $4643 per ounce [4][52]. - The international precious metal futures generally closed higher, and most London base metals also closed up, while the oil market had slight increases [5][6]. - There were various macro - level policy announcements, including central bank operations, tax policies, and industry - specific regulations [9]. - Different sectors in the financial and commodity markets had their own trends and developments, influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, economic data, and policy changes [32][47][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Precious metals: Spot silver rose over 7% and hit $93/ounce, spot gold reached $4643/ounce; COMEX gold futures rose 0.76% to $4633.90/ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 7.93% to $93.19/ounce [4][5]. - Base metals: Most London base metals closed up, with LME tin rising 9.03% to $54000/ton, LME nickel rising 6.24% to $18785/ton, etc., while LME aluminum fell 0.25% to $3189.5/ton [5]. - Oil: WTI crude oil rose 0.15% to $61.02/barrel, Brent crude rose 0.08% to $65.52/barrel [6]. Important News Macro News - The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on January 15th [9]. - The government extended the individual income tax refund policy for home - swapping from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [9]. - Three departments regulated the new - energy vehicle industry to resist price wars [9]. - China's 2025 foreign trade volume reached 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing 6.1% and imports growing 0.5% [10]. - US November retail sales and PPI were higher than expected [11]. - A Fed official said there was no need for a rate cut in January but there might be room later [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Qinghai Wucai's soda ash plant reduced production by 30% for about a week [14]. - UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory rose 4.2% to 19.769 million barrels, while light distillate inventory fell 6.5% [14]. - China's methanol port inventory decreased by 96,900 tons to 1.4403 million tons [14]. - The "ghost fleet" sought Russian ship flags after the US seized Venezuelan oil - trading ships [15]. - China's December crude and refined oil imports had different trends [15]. - Iran's oil exports had record - breaking growth in the past 14 months [15]. - OPEC maintained the 2026 global economic growth forecast at 3.1% and predicted 3.2% for 2027; Russia's 2025 crude output decreased 0.7% [16]. - US crude exports increased by 43,000 barrels/day, commercial crude inventory increased 0.81%, and domestic production decreased by 58,000 barrels/day [18]. Metal Futures - Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced trading fees and order quantity rules for lithium carbonate and polysilicon futures [20]. - Some tin smelters were preparing for delivery, and warehouse receipts were expected to increase [21]. - Indonesia might approve 260 million tons of nickel ore and 60,000 tons of tin production quotas in 2026 [21]. - Sichuan Tianli will conduct production line maintenance, reducing lithium iron phosphate output [21]. - Two clients in lithium carbonate futures were restricted from opening positions for 3 months [21]. Black - Series Futures - HeSteel Group's January 2026 silicon - manganese inquiry price was 5850 yuan/ton, and the purchase volume was 17,000 tons [24]. - Mongolia's December 2025 coal exports increased 16.83% month - on - month and 71.31% year - on - year [24]. - HeSteel got the first steel export license in Hebei after 16 years [24]. - National building materials production, inventory, and demand data showed certain trends as of January 14th [25]. - China's December imports of iron ore and coal increased compared to November [25]. Agricultural Product Futures - Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blend ratio to 50% and will raise the CPO export levy from 10% to 12.5% in March [27]. - China's December soybean imports were 8.044 million tons [29]. - US private exporters reported sales of 334,000 tons of soybeans to China and 136,000 tons of corn to South Korea [30]. Financial Markets Finance - On January 14th, A - shares had a volatile day with a turnover close to 4 trillion yuan; different indices had different performances [32]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.56%, with net southbound funds buying nearly HK$2.9 billion [32]. - Regulatory authorities issued three - aspect requirements for fund dividends [32]. - On Wednesday, the single - day turnover of domestic ETFs exceeded 700 billion yuan, and the scale of stock - type and cross - border ETFs reached new highs [33]. - Insurance funds' long - term investment pilot got new capital [34]. - A - share GEO concept stocks were active, but some companies clarified their non - involvement [34]. - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau investigated Sunflower's restructuring plan, and the company terminated the major asset - restructuring [34]. - Shanghai Stock Exchange regulated abnormal trading behaviors in Guosheng Technology [35]. - Baidu considered upgrading its secondary listing in Hong Kong to a dual - primary listing [35]. Industry - Three departments regulated the new - energy vehicle industry to build a fair market order [36]. - In 2025, China's auto production and sales exceeded 34 million, with new - energy vehicles exceeding 16 million, and 2026 sales were expected to grow [36][37]. - The 2026 work meeting of the new - energy vehicle industry emphasized technological breakthroughs and market expansion [37]. - The sixth - batch high - value medical consumables procurement results were announced [37]. - Shanghai launched an action plan for autonomous driving [37]. - In 2025, Huawei regained the top position in China's smartphone market [37]. - The Chinese lunar - year commemorative coins and notes had a hot reservation, and notes had a premium in the secondary market [38]. - The US government will impose a 25% tariff on some semiconductor products from January 15th [39]. - Warren Buffett warned about the risks of AI [39]. Overseas - The Fed's Beige Book showed that most districts had economic growth [41]. - The US urged citizens to leave Iran and withdrew some military personnel; Iran was on high alert [41]. - The US will suspend visa processing for 75 countries from January 21st [41]. - The US Supreme Court did not rule on Trump's tariff policy [42]. - Denmark, the US, and Greenland will discuss Greenland's future [42]. - Some Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts [42]. - NASA planned a manned lunar - orbiting mission no earlier than February 6th [42]. - US November PPI and retail sales data were higher than expected [44]. - US December existing - home sales reached the highest level since February 2023 [44]. - Japanese Prime Minister announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives and an early election [44]. - The Bank of Japan will discuss market operations and may continue to raise interest rates [44]. - South Korea's 2025 semiconductor exports reached a record high [45]. - India was considering a proposal for battery - storage system component localization [45]. International Stock Markets - US stocks fell, with the Dow down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.53%, and Nasdaq down 1% [47]. - European stocks had mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.53% and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.46% [47]. - Asian - Pacific stocks had mixed performances, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1.48% and South Korea's KOSPI up 0.65% [47]. - Market regulators investigated Ctrip for suspected monopoly, and its stock prices fell [48]. - Citigroup's Q4 revenue rose 2.1% to $19.87 billion [49]. - Bank of America's Q4 revenue rose 7% to $28.37 billion [50]. - Czechoslovak Group planned an IPO worth €750 million in Amsterdam [51]. Commodities - Precious metals had a strong rally, and industrial metals like copper and tin also strengthened [52]. - International precious metal futures closed higher, supported by geopolitical and economic factors [52]. - London base metals mostly closed up [52]. - Oil prices rose slightly due to Iran - related supply concerns [53]. - Tungsten prices continued to be strong in 2026 [53]. - OPEC maintained the 2026 oil demand growth forecast and predicted 2027 growth [53]. Bonds - China's bond market had a mixed performance, with the central bank conducting repurchase operations [55]. - Japan's government bonds were sold off due to election - related fiscal concerns [55]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board [55]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 31 points, and the RMB central parity rate was depreciated [56]. - The US dollar index fell 0.11%, and most non - US currencies rose [56]. - Japan's finance minister warned about exchange - rate fluctuations, and the yen rebounded [56]. - South Korea's central bank will discuss excess foreign - exchange reserves with commercial banks [58]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data release schedule includes UK, German, US, etc., data from 2025 [60]. - Event schedule includes central bank operations, company press conferences, and Fed officials' speeches [62].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15, 2026, with a term of 6 months (181 days) to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [3] - The Ministry of Finance and two other departments have extended the individual income tax policy to support residents in exchanging and purchasing housing from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [3] - Relevant departments have jointly held a symposium on new - energy vehicle enterprises to regulate the competition order in the new - energy vehicle industry and resist disorderly "price wars" [3] - China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, with exports growing by 6.1% and imports growing by 0.5% [3] - The US November retail sales monthly rate and PPI reached new highs since July, exceeding market expectations [3] 3. Summary by Category Hot News - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15, 2026 [3] - The tax - refund policy for individual income tax on housing exchange and purchase is extended from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [3] - Relevant departments held a symposium on new - energy vehicle enterprises to regulate competition order [3] - China's 2025 foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.1% and imports growing by 0.5% [3] - The US November retail sales monthly rate was 0.6% and PPI was 3%, both new highs since July and exceeding market expectations [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: silver, tin, nickel, glass, palm oil [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 1.99%, precious metals rose 35.57%, oilseeds and fats rose 7.52%, soft commodities rose 2.91%, non - ferrous metals rose 26.47%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 9.50%, energy rose 2.24%, chemicals rose 9.66%, grains rose 1.08%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 3.06% [4] Plate Positions - Information on the recent five - day position changes of commodity futures plates is presented through a chart [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%, the SSE 50 fell 0.67%, the CSI 300 fell 0.40%, the CSI 500 rose 1.04%, the S&P 500 fell 0.53%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.56%, the German DAX fell 0.53%, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.48%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.46% [6] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.08%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures were flat [6] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index rose 0.06%, WTI crude oil fell 0.07%, London spot gold rose 0.88%, LME copper rose 1.03%, and the Wind commodity index rose 6.05% [6] - Others: The US dollar index fell 0.11%, and the CBOE volatility index was flat [6] Stock Market Risk Appetite and Commodity Trends - Information on the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, is presented through charts [7]

| 尿素日度数据图表 | 研究咨询部 | 2026/1/14 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一周走势 | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 河北 | 1740 | 1740 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 河南 | 1750 | 1740 | 10 | 山东 | 1740 | 1740 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1630 | 1620 | 10 | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1760 | 1750 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | 安徽 | 1760 | 1750 | 10 | 黑龙江 | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 内蒙古 | 1790 | 1790 | 0 | 河北东光 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soda ash industry is short - term volatility [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved. Although there is short - term support from policy expectations and market sentiment, the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and prices may fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support trend near the 20 - day moving average. Future focus should be on downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened low and closed high, with an intraday volatile rebound. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 11,220 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,412 lots. The intraday high was 1232, the low was 1206, and the closing price was 1222, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was stable with slight fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range change. The third phase of Henan Zhongyuan resumed operation, and the production increased. The downstream trading atmosphere was average, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, maintaining low - price and just - in - time procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 28 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20 percentage points; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24 percentage points [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of some glass production lines at the end of last month [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The price of raw material ore salt was stable during the week, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. One glass production line started production yesterday, and the cold - repair pace slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In addition, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the breeding industry chain is "oscillating upward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market will maintain an oscillating upward trend, with production and sales differentiation persisting [1] - The domestic corn spot market is advancing steadily, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [1] - For eggs, it's advisable to wait and see for now due to high - resistance in capacity elimination [2] - For the far - month contracts of live pigs, it's recommended to buy on dips as there is an upward price expectation [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The production - sales differentiation in the soybean market is hard to reverse in the short term, with the northeast region's price increase lacking terminal demand support and the sales area under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [1] - The purchase and sale two - way bidding transaction of 30,000 tons of domestic soybeans by CGC Grain & Oil Co., Ltd. had a 100% transaction rate, indicating some market demand support [1] Corn - Since the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic corn spot market has advanced steadily, and the expected selling pressure has not materialized while the sales progress is over 50% in the northeast [1] - The local reserve rotation auction in the northeast region was popular this week, and the price was at a premium compared to the current spot [1] - The single - period supply of imported corn auctions will be halved to 100,000 tons next week, presenting opportunities to buy on dips [1] Egg - In December, the laying hen inventory dropped to 1.295 billion, with a young - dominated structure accounting for over 80%, resulting in high resistance in capacity elimination [2] - Without the egg price falling below the feed cost, the industry lacks the motivation to actively clear capacity [2] Live Pig - In 2025, the actual live pig slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises reached 155.79 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024, showing a stable supply foundation [3] - The actual slaughter volume showed significant pre - and post - holiday differences and seasonality, with the lowest in February at 10.349 million and the highest in December at 14.5822 million [3] - The capacity reduction of live pigs has accelerated significantly, indicating an upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3][4]