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光大期货软商品日报(2025 年 7 月 31 日)-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 04:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.25% to 67.5 cents per pound on Wednesday, and the CF509 dropped by 1.89% to 13,755 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 37,728 lots to 375,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level. After the Fed's July FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 50%, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and U.S. cotton prices were under pressure. Domestically, the 09 contract is reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread is narrowing. Considering the low commercial cotton inventory and the macro - sentiment, there may not be much downside for the 09 contract. For the 01 contract, pay attention to the Sino - U.S. negotiation results, and the short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The overall view is oscillating and slightly bearish [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable, and some processing sugar mills lowered their prices by 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market is centered around Brazil's crushing progress without a clear direction. The domestic futures market is in the process of position transfer. The September contract is under pressure and has returned to around 5,800 points. The January contract has slightly stronger support due to the expected delayed start of the crushing season. The view is oscillating, and there is still a small upward space for the 9 - 1 spread [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 150 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,715 yuan, up 60 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan, and the national price was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis was 271 yuan, up 63 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou price was 6,075 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,343 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,512 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,468 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,610 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 30, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.5, up 0.1 [3]. - On July 30, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,075 yuan per ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts including those for cotton (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17].
碳酸锂日报(2025 年 7 月 31 日)-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 04:16
Research Views - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.43% to 70,600 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 65,470 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 855 tons to 13,131 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In terms of imports, China's lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.3%. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 1,544 tons to 42,815 tons, intermediate links increasing by 1,660 tons to 44,970 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 2,654 tons to 55,385 tons [3]. - The core contradiction in the short-term fundamentals lies in concerns about supply disruptions, but there is still no clear announcement. Affected by the overall market, market volatility is relatively large. Opportunities to short volatility in the subsequent market can be monitored, and attention should be paid to position management [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents a table of daily price data for various products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products. It shows price changes from July 29 - 30, 2025, such as the main contract closing price of futures dropping from 70,840 yuan/ton to 70,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreasing by 200 yuan/ton [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - The report includes charts showing the price trends of lithium - related ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - There are charts depicting the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. Price Spreads - Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. Precursor & Cathode Materials - The report provides charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. Lithium Battery Prices - There are charts presenting the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in the lithium carbonate industry from December 2024 to July 2025 [35][37][39]. Production Costs - A chart depicts the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]
有色商品日报(2025 年 7 月 31 日)-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 04:16
Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper oscillated weakly, dropping 0.74% to $9,730/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.47% to 78,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remains in a loss state [1]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than the expected 2.6%, but the PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% and significantly lower than the previous value of 3.5%. The US added 104,000 ADP jobs in July, better than the expected 76,000 and the previous value of -33,000. The employment resilience and rising inflation make the Fed more cautious in monetary policy. The Fed's interest - rate meeting last night kept rates unchanged, and Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, emphasizing inflation risks and solid employment, which suppressed the expectation of a rate cut this year, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to soar [1]. - Domestically, important meetings pointed out that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, effectively release domestic demand potential, and continuously prevent and resolve risks in key areas [1]. - In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons; Comex inventory increased by 2,283 tons to 232,194 tons; SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons; BC copper warrants remained at 3,313 tons [1]. - Affected by the off - season, consumption remains weak. Recently, macro factors have a weak impact. The Fed suppresses the rate - cut expectation, the domestic situation stabilizes, and Trump does not impose additional tariffs on refined copper. The US dollar rebounds, and US copper prices fall, driving copper prices down. Although the impact on LME and Shanghai copper is relatively weak, from the perspective of the recent inventory build - up in three locations, the fundamental support is also quite weak. Therefore, copper is temporarily regarded as weak, and attention should be paid to whether new factors will emerge [1]. Aluminum - Alumina oscillated weakly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at 3,278 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.38%, and the open interest increased by 5,266 lots to 154,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.02%, and the open interest decreased by 105 lots to 261,000 lots. Aluminum alloy oscillated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at 20,025 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.05%, and the open interest decreased by 62 lots to 8,788 lots [1][2]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to 3,248 yuan/ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots continued to be flat, and the quotation fell to 20,660 yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to Wuxi. The Foshan A00 aluminum reported at par. The processing fees of aluminum rods in many places remained stable, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Wuxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton; the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods remained stable [2]. - Due to the rainy season in Guinea, the export of bauxite has started to decline. Although the domestic short - term bauxite reserves are relatively sufficient, the cost support is obvious. Coupled with the intensification of anti - involution policies, the spot - futures arbitrage window for alumina has opened, and there is still a certain risk of a short squeeze under low warrants. Attention should be paid to the Guinea general election. If the bauxite export policy is tightened, it may strengthen the logic of mine - end disturbances [2]. - The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum has gradually changed, leading to a smooth inventory build - up of aluminum ingots. After the spot premium gradually flattened, the aluminum price started to oscillate in a narrow range, waiting for new guidance. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, it will form a new upward pull point. Currently, aluminum alloy lacks an independent driving force, and there is still room for long - position trading when the AD - AL spread corrects [2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.57% to $15,085/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.9% to 120,920 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 208,092 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 3,180 tons to 21,759 tons [2]. - In terms of premiums, the LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative; the premium of imported nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. During the week, the domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased slightly, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and that of the Philippines decreased slightly; the center of the nickel - iron transaction price moved up to 920 yuan/nickel point; battery - grade nickel sulfate increased during the week, the MHP coefficient remained stable, and the high - grade nickel matte coefficient remained stable [2]. - In the stainless - steel sector, the raw - material prices showed differentiation. The slowdown in production and the rising prices led to a slight decline in inventory on a month - on - month basis. In terms of primary nickel, the domestic weekly inventory decreased slightly. Overall, in the short term, the prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little, with support from the prices of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to oscillate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - The price of flat - water copper increased by 260 yuan/ton to 79,270 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 53 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 79,700 yuan/ton, and the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton [3]. - The rough smelting TC remained unchanged at - 43 dollars/ton [3]. - LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,370 tons to 229,909 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons on a weekly basis. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.1 million tons to 19.6 million tons [3]. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 58 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 93.6 yuan/ton to - 396.1 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River spot market decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of lead concentrates at the factory in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu all decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged [3]. - LME lead inventory increased by 6,025 tons to 276,375 tons, SHFE lead warrants increased by 1,002 tons to 61,934 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 919 tons to 63,254 tons [3]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 105 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 595 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The Wuxi aluminum price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,660 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 20,660 yuan/ton. The Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 30 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of Shanxi low - grade and high - grade bauxite remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton and 640 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of alumina remained unchanged at 380 dollars/ton, the price of Shandong alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3,215 yuan/ton, and the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged at 6,322 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong and 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained unchanged at 270 yuan/ton and 450 yuan/ton respectively. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton [4]. - LME aluminum inventory increased by 4,250 tons to 460,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 1,857 tons to 51,217 tons, and the weekly total inventory increased by 6,968 tons to 115,790 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 0 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.2 million tons to 5.8 million tons [4]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 112.5 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 1449 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased by 600 yuan/ton to 124,150 yuan/ton, the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, and the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by 100 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained unchanged at 3,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port and 1.8% nickel ore at Lianyungang remained unchanged at 465 yuan/ton and 658 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The prices of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,400 yuan/ton, the price of 304/2B coil (matte) in Wuxi increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B coil (matte) in Foshan increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of battery - grade nickel sulfate (≥22%) and 523 - type and 622 - type nickel - cobalt - manganese decreased by 300 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - LME nickel inventory increased by 3,180 tons to 208,092 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 121 tons to 21,759 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 174 tons to 25,451 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 57 tons to 40,281 tons [4]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 85 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 1214 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.1% to 22,690 yuan/ton, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged at $2,505.5/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly to 9.06 [5]. - The near - far month spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average imported zinc premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton to 2.5 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloy Zamak3 and Zamak5 increased by 110 yuan/ton to 23,305 yuan/ton and 23,855 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,700 yuan/ton [5]. - The weekly TC of domestic Zn50% zinc concentrate and imported Zn50% zinc concentrate remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/metal ton and 240 dollars/dry ton respectively [5]. - SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,100 tons to 109,050 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.36 million tons [5]. - SHFE registered warrants decreased by 75 tons to 15,232 tons, and LME registered warrants remained unchanged at 57,600 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 1,832 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.1% to 267,740 yuan/ton, the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 9.72 [5]. - The near - far month spread increased by 150 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton, the SMM spot price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 268,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 2,300 yuan/metal ton to 260,800 yuan/metal ton and 256,800 yuan/metal ton respectively [5]. - The average domestic spot premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 30.5 dollars/ton to 10.5 dollars/ton [5]. - SHFE tin inventory increased by 269 tons to 7,417 tons, LME tin inventory increased by 90 tons to 1,945 tons. SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 7,433 tons, and LME registered warrants increased by 15 tons to 1,365 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 24,191 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis Spot Premiums - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][11]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads - Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][14][16][17]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [18][20][22][24]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2
黑色商品日报(2025 年 7 月 31 日)-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 04:05
Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Decline [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1][3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the production of building materials slightly decreasing, inventory slightly decreasing, and apparent demand falling. The market has mixed expectations for anti - involution policy implementation, and the short - term steel futures may oscillate [1]. - For iron ore, supply has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and with the digestion of the "anti - involution" sentiment and concerns about military parade production restrictions, the short - term price is expected to decline [1]. - Coking coal supply is increasing, while coking enterprises are in production losses but still have a high enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke production is facing cost transfer pressure, and the game between steel mills and upstream is intense. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely, and market sentiment should be monitored [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon production profit has improved, demand has increased, and cost has support. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [3]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring Contract Spreads - Steel: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar is - 56.0 (down 19.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 22.0 (down 7.0); the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil is - 12.0 (down 8.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 2.0 (down 9.0) [4]. - Iron ore: The 9 - 1 spread is 23.0 (down 4.5), and the 1 - 5 spread is 20.5 (down 1.0) [4]. - Coke: The 9 - 1 spread is - 63.5 (down 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 52.5 (up 3.5) [4]. - Coking coal: The 9 - 1 spread is - 115.5 (down 21.5), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 34.0 (down 7.5) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The 9 - 1 spread is - 92.0 (down 18.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 30.0 (down 10.0) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The 9 - 1 spread is - 132.0 (down 26.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20.0 (down 6.0) [4]. Basis - Steel: The basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 125.0 (up 42.0), and that of the 01 - contract is 69.0 (up 23.0); the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil is 17.0 (up 30.0), and that of the 01 - contract is 5.0 (up 22.0) [4]. - Iron ore: The basis of the 09 - contract is 30.2 (down 0.9), and that of the 01 - contract is 53.2 (down 5.4) [4]. - Coke: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 98.0 (down 10.9), and that of the 01 - contract is - 161.5 (down 16.9) [4]. - Coking coal: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 79.0 (up 3.5), and that of the 01 - contract is - 194.5 (down 18.0) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 316.0 (up 96.0), and that of the 01 - contract is - 408.0 (up 78.0) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 258.0 (up 202.0), and that of the 01 - contract is - 390.0 (up 176.0) [4]. Spot Prices - Steel: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3440.0 (up 10.0), in Beijing is 3340.0 (unchanged), and in Guangzhou is 3480.0 (up 30.0); the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3500.0 (up 10.0), in Tianjin is 3500.0 (up 30.0), and in Guangzhou is 3610.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Iron ore: The spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port is 772.0 (down 9), and that of Super Special powder is 647.0 (down 10) [4]. - Coke: The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1420.0 (up 30.0) [4]. - Coking coal: The spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The spot price in Ningxia is 6000.0 (up 150.0), in Inner Mongolia is 5800.0 (unchanged), and in Guangxi is 5850.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The spot price in Ningxia is 5700.0 (up 150.0), in Inner Mongolia is 5650.0 (up 100.0), and in Qinghai is 5700.0 (up 150.0) [4]. Other Data - Rebar: The rebar futures profit is 131.9 (down 38.9), the long - process profit is 252.4 (up 24.3), and the short - process profit is 148.5 (unchanged) [4]. - Spread data: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 168.0 (up 12.0), the ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.2 (up 0.01), the ratio of coke to iron ore is 2.1 (up 0.08), the ratio of coking coal to iron ore is 1.5 (up 0.04), the ratio of rebar to coke is 2.0 (down 0.07), and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is - 108.0 (down 6.00) [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report provides historical price charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon main contracts from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon main contracts [16][17][18][20][22]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report presents historical spread charts of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][26][31][32][35][37]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - The report includes charts of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [39][40][42][44]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report provides charts of the rebar main - contract futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [43][45][49]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [51]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [52].
工业硅&多晶硅日报(2025 年 7 月 31 日)-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 04:04
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On July 30, polysilicon hit the daily limit again, with the main contract 2509 closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.87%, and the open interest increasing by 22,849 lots to 164,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 8,085 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract 2509 closing at 9,285 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.2%, and the open interest decreasing by 33,993 lots to 243,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. - The market has been spreading news about capacity mergers and acquisitions, and the Photovoltaic Industry Association has clarified some news. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has once again emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against involution and promoting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news again, and industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon [2]. - Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand is fulfilled, the sentiment has cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to break through the previous high again. After the exchange adjusted the margin and handling fees, investors should avoid heavy - position chasing up or selling short. They should appropriately pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread space and the PS/SI price ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and the progress of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 9,085 yuan/ton on July 29 to 9,345 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 260 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 8,995 yuan/ton to 9,325 yuan/ton, a rise of 330 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon generally increased, with the increase ranging from 0 to 200 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 9,250 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 255 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton on July 29 to 54,705 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton to 54,585 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,780 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of polysilicon increased, with the increase ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 44,500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from 6,305 yuan/ton to 8,085 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon** - The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, 13,500 yuan/ton, and 13,000 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,082 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased from 251,965 tons to 248,550 tons, a decrease of 3,415 tons. The social inventory decreased by 300 tons to 442,600 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,070 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 83,400 tons to 90,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons. The social inventory remained unchanged at 272,000 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices** - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16]. - **Inventory** - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. - **Cost and Profit** - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][31]. 3. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 04:04
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] 2. Core Views - The report provides daily monitoring data on iron ore futures contract prices, spreads, and basis, as well as information on contract rule changes and the composition of the research team. 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - **Contract Prices**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with changes of -3.5, -9.0, and -4.5 respectively [4]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 contracts changed by 5.5, -4.5, and -1.0 respectively [4]. 3.2 Basis - **Basis Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, the basis of BRBF increased by 8, while the basis of Carajás fines decreased by 1 [7]. - **Basis Charts**: Multiple charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties over time [9][10][11]. 3.3 Contract Rule Changes - **New Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian Concentrate) were added, and four more (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Wugang Standard Fines, and SP10 Fines) were also added later [12]. - **Brand Premium Adjustment**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Quality Premium Adjustment**: The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the iron element premium was introduced [12]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread of PB lump - PB fines increased by 2, while the spread of PB fines - mixed fines decreased by 2 [14]. - **Spread Charts**: Multiple charts show the spread trends between different iron ore varieties over time [16][17][19][20][21]. 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The black research team consists of Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [24].
股指期货日度数据跟踪2025-07-31-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:59
1. Index Trends - On July 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to close at 3615.72 points, with a trading volume of 819.628 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% to close at 11203.03 points, with a trading volume of 1024.652 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.82% with a trading volume of 392.675 billion yuan, opening at 6758.33, closing at 6718.48, with a daily high of 6770.88 and a low of 6662.91 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.65% with a trading volume of 304.778 billion yuan, opening at 6345.37, closing at 6314.69, with a daily high of 6368.27 and a low of 6269.51 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.38% with a trading volume of 112.597 billion yuan, opening at 2809.44, closing at 2819.35, with a daily high of 2842.47 and a low of 2802.74 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fell 0.02% with a trading volume of 445.168 billion yuan, opening at 4148.94, closing at 4151.24, with a daily high of 4185.21 and a low of 4127.43 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 55.4 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and computers significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 41.44 points from the previous close, with power equipment, computers, and non - bank finance sectors having a significant downward pull on the index [2]. - The CSI 300 dropped 0.78 points from the previous close, with banks, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology sectors pulling the index up, while computers, electronics, and power equipment sectors pulling it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 10.76 points from the previous close, with banks, non - bank finance, and food and beverage sectors pulling the index up, and the electronics sector pulling it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 48.99, IM01 was - 119.91, IM02 was - 303.97, and IM03 was - 472.07 [13]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 46.19, IC01 was - 102.76, IC02 was - 241.09, and IC03 was - 367.61 [13]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 6.78, IF01 was - 17.41, IF02 was - 49.47, and IF03 was - 83.1 [13]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.36, IH01 was 0.26, IH02 was 0.43, and IH03 was 0.33 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM, IC, IF, and IH roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented in the relevant tables and figures, including specific values at different time points [20][21][22][23][24][25]
光大期货金融期货日报-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:26
Research Views Index Futures - Yesterday, the A-share market oscillated and pulled back, with the Wind All A index down 0.4% and a trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.82%, the CSI 500 index dropped 0.65%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.38%, and the SSE 300 index declined 0.02%. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rally is driven by long-term, medium-term, and short-term factors. It's advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [1]. Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts up 0.40%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1585 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to have a repair market, and short-term treasury bonds are expected to stop falling and stabilize [2]. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose 0.21%, IF fell 0.12%, IC dropped 0.76%, and IM declined 0.87%. Among stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.38%, the SSE 300 fell 0.02%, the CSI 500 dropped 0.65%, and the CSI 1000 declined 0.82% [3]. Treasury Futures - TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.08%, T rose 0.16%, and TL rose 0.42%. Yields of treasury bonds decreased, with the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields down 1.52, 0.92, 1.41, and 2.15 respectively [3]. Market News - The Politburo meeting on July 30 stated that macro policies should continue to exert force and add strength in a timely manner. Fiscal policies should be more proactive, and monetary policies should maintain liquidity and lower financing costs [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC, including their historical price trends and basis changes [6][7][9]. Treasury Futures - Charts show the trends of treasury futures contracts, yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][16][18]. Exchange Rates - Charts display the middle rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs such as the euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [21][22][26].
光大期货能化商品日报-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, due to sanctions concerns leading to unstable supply expectations, the price center has shifted upwards. It should be treated with a rebound mindset in the short - term [1] - For fuel oil, if oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may follow and rebound. Consider closing out short positions on the LU - FU spread, and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions later [3] - For asphalt, in the short - term, the market is supported by low supply and inventory, and the spot price is relatively firm. Consider short - term long positions after oil prices stabilize [5] - For polyester, with cost - side support from the traditional oil demand peak season and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories of TA and EG, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - For rubber, short - term prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to macro events at the end of July and the results of China - US tariff negotiations [7] - For methanol, after capacity utilization in Iran recovers to the peak and arrivals increase, with stable downstream profits and capacity utilization and increasing inventory, it is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - For polyolefins, they will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. If the cost side does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [7] - For PVC, supply remains at a high - level oscillation, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening again, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI September contract closed up $0.79 to $70.00/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Brent September contract closed up $0.73 to $73.24/barrel, a 1.01% increase. SC2508 closed at 523.6 yuan/barrel, down 7.4 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% decrease. Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1st and unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil. India may cooperate, which could affect Russia's daily oil exports of 2.3 million barrels. The US sanctioned five shipping management companies and one oil wholesaler for dealing with Iranian oil. EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory, a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.48% at 2,956 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed up 2.49% at 3,710 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in Shandong has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching 48.16%, but is 0.96% lower year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia faces supply pressure from stable Middle East shipments [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1% at 3,650 yuan/ton. The planned asphalt production in August is 2.41 million tons, a 5% increase from July and a 25% increase year - on - year. The social inventory rate this week is 35.33%, down 0.27% from last week, the refinery inventory level is 26.22%, up 1.12%, and the refinery capacity utilization rate is 35.91%, up 3.98% [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. EG2509 closed at 4,450 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. A 1.34 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East has started production and is ramping up capacity. With cost - side support and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories, polyester prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 65 yuan/ton at 14,945 yuan/ton, and NR closed down 95 yuan/ton at 12,575 yuan/ton. As of July 27, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, up 0.46 million tons or 0.4%. With continuous rainfall in domestic producing areas and rising tire production and exports, short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely [7] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,407 yuan/ton. With Iranian plants operating at full capacity and increasing arrivals, stable downstream profits and capacity utilization, and increasing inventory, methanol is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton. Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost side does not decline significantly [7] - **PVC**: On Wednesday, the price of PVC in East China increased. Supply remains high, demand is recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and their changes for various energy and chemical products including crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. on July 30 and 29, 2025 [10] 3.3 Market News - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Ukraine war within 10 - 12 days, the US will impose measures including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners. The US also warned other buyers of Russian oil [13] - EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory (expected 1.3 - million - barrel decrease), a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents historical price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][17][19] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It includes charts of the basis for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., showing their historical trends [33][34] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [48][49][53] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report shows charts of spreads between different products such as crude oil (internal - external market, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur), etc. [64][65][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the production profits of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][79] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market and many awards [81] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with multiple industry awards [82] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, winning several industry honors [83] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical futures and cash trading [84]
碳酸锂日报(2025年7月30日)-20250730
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 5.9% to 70,840 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 700 yuan/ton to 71,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 65,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 12,276 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3%. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory increased by 1,544 tons to 42,815 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,660 tons to 44,970 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 2,654 tons to 55,385 tons [3]. - The core contradiction in the short - term fundamentals lies in the concern about supply disruptions. Currently, there is still no clear announcement, and affected by the overall market, the market volatility is relatively large. Opportunities to short volatility in the future market can be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 70,840 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 70,460 yuan/ton, down 1,240 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777 US dollars/ton, down 28 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 73,150 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 71,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 65,420 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 70,570 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 60,320 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained at 8.28 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 53,250 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 7,730 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,208.89 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [5]. - Precursors and cathode materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials changed slightly. For example, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased by 40 yuan/ton to 75,795 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 220,450 yuan/ton [5]. - Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary battery cells increased by 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.384 yuan/Wh, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate battery cells increased by 0.002 yuan/Wh to 0.323 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][31]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from December 2024 to July 2025 [34][36]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]. 3.3 Research Team and Contact Information - The non - ferrous research team members include Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, each with their own educational backgrounds, research directions, and professional qualifications [42][43]. - The company's address is in Shanghai, with a phone number, fax number, customer service hotline, and postal code provided [46].